Author: ChrisCrouse

Hoops Rumors attended the 2017 MIT Sloan Conference earlier this month and we delivered several features from the event. We covered commissioner Adam Silver’s sit down with FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver. Silver addressed the league’s strategy when it comes to players’ social media accounts and the commissioner noted that basketball attracts “a certain type of owner,” adding that NBA owners are typically more open to innovation than owners of other North American sports franchises.

NBA owners are embracing the analytics movement. Coaches and players are doing the same, as I discussed in my Evolution of Analytics piece.

We also passed along a feature on Mark Cuban and how the Mavericks have taken a unique approach to building around Dirk Nowitzki. In addition, we spoke with several current and former NBA executives and conducted a poll with topics ranging from the MVP race to front office moves.

Here are more notes from this year’s conference:

• The midrange game appears to be a lost art, but a look at the numbers tell a different story, as Bucks Director of Basketball Research Seth Partnow told attendees during the conference’s Truth And Myths Of The Three Point Revolution In Basketball session. Teams are no longer designing plays that result in a midrange shot, which has caused a decrease in assisted midrange attempts throughout the league. However, unassisted midrange attempts, which are known as “Star Shots” in NBA circles, have stayed consistent over the last decade. When plays break down, it forces the teams’ top players to create their own offense and in many possessions, the result is a midrange shot off the dribble.
• The best shot in the NBA is the corner three-pointer, but Partnow noted that only 7.5% of all shots during the 2015/16 campaign were from that area.
• Partnow said his least favorite stat is defensive three-point percentage. He believes the stat isn’t an indicator of whether or not good defense has been played since once a player shoots the ball, the result is not impacted by the defense. “It’s not luck, but the data points look like luck.”
• Former NBA executive Bobby Marks told Hoops Rumors that ownership change isn’t worrisome for most members of the front office. “[As an Assistant GM], you’re not in the line of fire.” Marks, who now writes for The Vertical, saw the Nets’ franchise change ownership four times in his 20 years with the club. He began his career as an intern with the franchise before working his way up to assistant GM.
• The Warriors have struggled without Kevin Durant and if he can’t get back to 100%, the team will have trouble claiming the Western Conference, Marks tells Hoops Rumors. He added that the San Antonio could take advantage of Golden State’s woes, but cautions that the Spurs’ backcourt is their “Achilles heel.” Marks also added that San Antonio’s age showed in its playoff series with the Thunder last season.
• One anonymous NBA executive told Hoops Rumors that he would rather have Timofey Mozgov‘s contract on his books than Joakim Noah‘s when asked to pick between the two. The executive believes both players will be back-ups on the latter halves of their respective contracts, adding that Mozgov may be better suited for that role. Mozgov signed a four-year, $64MM contract with the Lakers over the summer, while Noah signed a four-year, $72MM deal with the Knicks. Both players are out for the remainder of the season.
• Mavericks owner Mark Cuban told a group of students and media members, including Hoops Rumors, that the best way to break into the sports industry is not a sports management degree. The Shark Tank Star recommended computer and data sciences, as those will be important areas in the future of the NBA.
• During his panel with Nate Silver, Cuban dismissed the notion that referees have the hardest job in sports. “Have you ever seen a ref quit because it’s too hard,” Cuban exclaimed. “Has anyone said ‘I’m going to go back and be an accountant?'”  The league has fined Cuban nearly $2MM, much of which has been a result of criticizing referees, since he took ownership of the Mavericks.

Analytics in the NBA has come a long way. There was a time when basketball-lifers and number-guys were gridlocked in a duel for the future. Now, both sides have softened their stance and acknowledge that the process needs to be a combination of stats, scouting, and common sense.

In most organizations, analytics departments don’t usually communicate directly with players. “We meet with coaches more so than players and let them relay the information,” Bucks Director of Basketball Research Seth Partnow told Hoops Rumors.“There may be reasons why a player is not performing [certain] tasks that are more effective in theory.”

Partnow wouldn’t provide a specific example from Milwaukee’s front office, but during the MIT Sloan Conference’s Ball Don’t Lie panel, former Nuggets executive Dean Oliver spoke about a scenario where the team shot down the empirical evidence. In the late 2000’s, Oliver’s research found that if J.R. Smith took a few steps back when shooting from behind the arc—akin to what Stephen Curry has done over the last few seasons—the value of the increase in floor spacing would outweigh the slight dip in 3-point percentage. However, coach George Karl wasn’t comfortable giving Smith the green light from that distance (the running joke among panel members and media attendees was that Oliver should have communicated directly with Smith, which would have easily persuaded the shooting guard to test out the theory as well as given Oliver the chance–likely with success– to validate his research).

There are other instances where teams may not use all the available information. Overloading players with data can be counter-productive at times. “Some players you give data to slows their mind down, slows their feet down,” former NBA coach Vinny Del Negro said during the same panel. “There might be a younger guy that you can only tell one or two things to…you have to remember the human element.” 

Free agent power forward Luis Scola believes that in 10 years, every player will be comfortable with analytics, though he admits many of them rely on coaching staffs to get acclimated with the terminology and application of the mathematics. “In terms of data, players are way behind coaches,” Scola said.

As the analytics movement continues to evolve, the focus will shift to sports science. “Where else can it go? We tackled the front office already,” former Nets assistant GM Bobby Marks told Hoops Rumors. Organizations are already able to use mathematical models to gauge player values and learn how their roster can improve on and off the court. The next step is improving ways to monitor the health of players and perfecting the distribution of minutes in teams’ rotations. Marks, who now writes for The Vertical, envisions nearly every club hiring a Director of Sports Science to head a branch of their analytic departments in the future.

Player tracking devices will allow teams to gain the information needed to make crucial decisions. The new CBA could give players the ability to wear trackables and teams the access to the data, but the technology won’t be blanketly allowed throughout the league once the new agreement is signed. Per the new CBA, the NBA will set up committees, which will be comprised of league office members and representatives from the players’ union, to regulate the use of biometrics. Marks cautions that it’s not inevitable that players will use the technology next season, calling the integration of wearables “a slow process.”

Some players are luke-warm on the idea of wearables, while a fraction of them are against wearing the devices for fear that the data will hurt them in free agency. That viewpoint is far from the majority; many players see the value of the data. Once the new information exists, it will be used to assist the players with their health and help teams find the optimal minute distributions which will allow the players to have longer careers. “[The league] is going to get better using this [technology],” Celtics Assistant GM Michael Zarren said during the Ball Don’t Lie panel. “98% of the time, the players and team objectives align.”