The Evolution Of Analytics: Taking The NBA’s Pulse

Analytics in the NBA has come a long way. There was a time when basketball-lifers and number-guys were gridlocked in a duel for the future. Now, both sides have softened their stance and acknowledge that the process needs to be a combination of stats, scouting, and common sense.

In most organizations, analytics departments don’t usually communicate directly with players. “We meet with coaches more so than players and let them relay the information,” Bucks Director of Basketball Research Seth Partnow told Hoops Rumors.“There may be reasons why a player is not performing [certain] tasks that are more effective in theory.”

Partnow wouldn’t provide a specific example from Milwaukee’s front office, but during the MIT Sloan Conference’s Ball Don’t Lie panel, former Nuggets executive Dean Oliver spoke about a scenario where the team shot down the empirical evidence. In the late 2000’s, Oliver’s research found that if J.R. Smith took a few steps back when shooting from behind the arc—akin to what Stephen Curry has done over the last few seasons—the value of the increase in floor spacing would outweigh the slight dip in 3-point percentage. However, coach George Karl wasn’t comfortable giving Smith the green light from that distance (the running joke among panel members and media attendees was that Oliver should have communicated directly with Smith, which would have easily persuaded the shooting guard to test out the theory as well as given Oliver the chance–likely with success– to validate his research).

There are other instances where teams may not use all the available information. Overloading players with data can be counter-productive at times. “Some players you give data to slows their mind down, slows their feet down,” former NBA coach Vinny Del Negro said during the same panel. “There might be a younger guy that you can only tell one or two things to…you have to remember the human element.” 

Free agent power forward Luis Scola believes that in 10 years, every player will be comfortable with analytics, though he admits many of them rely on coaching staffs to get acclimated with the terminology and application of the mathematics. “In terms of data, players are way behind coaches,” Scola said.

As the analytics movement continues to evolve, the focus will shift to sports science. “Where else can it go? We tackled the front office already,” former Nets assistant GM Bobby Marks told Hoops Rumors. Organizations are already able to use mathematical models to gauge player values and learn how their roster can improve on and off the court. The next step is improving ways to monitor the health of players and perfecting the distribution of minutes in teams’ rotations. Marks, who now writes for The Vertical, envisions nearly every club hiring a Director of Sports Science to head a branch of their analytic departments in the future.

Player tracking devices will allow teams to gain the information needed to make crucial decisions. The new CBA could give players the ability to wear trackables and teams the access to the data, but the technology won’t be blanketly allowed throughout the league once the new agreement is signed. Per the new CBA, the NBA will set up committees, which will be comprised of league office members and representatives from the players’ union, to regulate the use of biometrics. Marks cautions that it’s not inevitable that players will use the technology next season, calling the integration of wearables “a slow process.”

Some players are luke-warm on the idea of wearables, while a fraction of them are against wearing the devices for fear that the data will hurt them in free agency. That viewpoint is far from the majority; many players see the value of the data. Once the new information exists, it will be used to assist the players with their health and help teams find the optimal minute distributions which will allow the players to have longer careers. “[The league] is going to get better using this [technology],” Celtics Assistant GM Michael Zarren said during the Ball Don’t Lie panel. “98% of the time, the players and team objectives align.”

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