Free Agent Stock Watch: Chicago Bulls
For the rest of the regular season and postseason, Hoops Rumors is taking a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents during the 2023 offseason. We consider whether their stock is rising or falling due to their performance and other factors. Today, we’re focusing on a handful of Bulls players.
Coby White, G
- 2022/23: $7.4MM
- 2023/24: RFA
- Stock: Up
White is a tricky player to gauge because he’s playing fewer minutes and taking fewer shots, so on the surface his numbers look worse. If you actually watch him play though, it’s clear that he has improved in meaningful ways.
For example, when he entered the league he was basically a low-efficiency gunner who didn’t provide a whole lot else. His ball-handling, decision-making and defense have all improved, and he has a much better feel for making plays within the flow of the game.
White, who was recently praised by head coach Billy Donovan, has seen his name has pop up in trade rumors the past couple seasons, but the fact that the Bulls held onto him through the deadline leads me to believe they’ll give him a $7,744,600 qualifying offer to make him a restricted free agent.
Lonzo Ball might miss all of next season following a third left knee surgery, making guard depth a priority. White just turned 23 years old last month – I think they’ll bring him back.
Nikola Vucevic, C
- 2022/23: $22MM
- 2023/24: UFA
- Stock: Neutral
Vucevic’s counting stats in 2022/23 (17.5 PPG, 11.2 RPG, 3.3 APG) are virtually identical to last year’s (17.6 PPG, 11.0 RPG, 3.2 APG), but he’s scoring much more efficiently, mostly due to a career-high 58.7% on twos — he’s averaging about the same amount of points on 1.8 fewer shot attempts per game.
The veteran center has always been a quality defensive rebounder, but he is limited in other aspects defensively, particularly when it comes to protecting the paint – among centers who contest five-plus shots at the rim, he allows opponents to shoot 67.9% on those looks, which is the second-worst mark in the league, according to NBA.com. Chicago’s offense has been better when Vucevic is playing, but the team’s defense is significantly worse.
It’s hard to see Vucevic getting much more than his current $22MM salary from the Bulls or any other team. That said, he’s more or less the same player he was when he signed the deal, just four years older, and obviously the Bulls value him, otherwise they wouldn’t have traded for him a couple years ago. Maybe a short-term deal at a similar price could be in play – he will remain extension-eligible until June 30.
Patrick Beverley, G
- 2022/23: $13MM + prorated minimum
- 2023/24: UFA
- Stock: Down
Beverley’s free agency situation is strange. On one hand, the Bulls have gone 10-5 with him in the starting lineup – a very good mark, particularly for a team that has been wildly inconsistent in 2022/23.
He is an above average rebounder for a player his size (he’s 6’1″), pulling down 5.9 boards in 28 minutes thus far with the Bulls, though that seems unsustainable (it would match his career high from ’16/17). He has also done a very good job taking care of the ball, recording a 4.07-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio with Chicago.
So why is Beverley’s stock down? He is only shooting 34% from deep in ‘22/23 – 31.5% with Chicago thus far – after shooting 34.3% last season. His career rate is 37.4%, but it’s a little concerning that he’s been below average two years in a row, because he isn’t much of a scoring threat otherwise (he’s averaging 6.3 points per game, his lowest total since his rookie year in ‘12/13).
Three other factors are working against him. One, he’s on his fifth team in under a year, having been traded three times before reaching a buyout agreement with Orlando. Second, he’ll turn 35 years old this summer, so it’s hard to see him getting more than a one- or two-year contract.
Finally, he lost his Bird rights when he was bought out, so the Bulls will be limited in what they can offer him – they could give him a 120% raise on his current minimum salary, which would be around $3.1MM, but otherwise they would have to dip into one of their exceptions (mid-level or bi-annual) to give him more than the minimum. I suspect they’ll pursue a younger target with the MLE.
Long story short, there’s no realistic way the Bulls can offer him anything close to the combined $13.8MM he made this season, and I definitely don’t see another team approaching that figure.
Javonte Green, F
- 2022/23: Minimum salary
- 2023/24: UFA
- Stock: Neutral
If you had asked me earlier this season about Green’s stock, I would have said he was owed a raise on his minimum-salary contract – the Bulls have been better with him on the court each of the past two seasons. He brings a much-needed infusion of energy, toughness, and defensive versatility to a team that has been oddly apathetic at times.
The main reason his stock is neutral instead of up is his knee injury, which he has been slow to recover from. He underwent an arthroscopic debridement procedure in January, and it was initially reported that he was expected to miss about a month. Instead, he was out for about two-and-a-half months, and after playing two games last week, he’s on the shelf again.
Donovan said on Sunday that Green has been dealing with discomfort the day after playing, which is troubling. Green punches above his weight due to his explosive athleticism, but he’s only 6’4″ – hopefully this injury doesn’t affect that part of his game, because he’s a limited offensive player. Here’s to hoping he makes a full recovery.
Sixers’ Embiid, Harden Out Monday In Denver
8:21pm: Harden has now been ruled out for Monday’s game as well, reports Wojnarowski (via Twitter). The former MVP is targeting a return later this week after the Sixers return home, Woj adds.
1:10pm: Sixers star Joel Embiid is out for Monday’s matchup in Denver due to right calf soreness, according to Adrian Wojnarowski and Ramona Shelburne of ESPN.
On a positive note for Philadelphia, guard James Harden, who has missed the past three games with Achilles soreness, is on track to play tonight, per ESPN.
According to Wojnarowski and Shelburne, Embiid — who was previously listed as questionable — tried to work out this morning, but the Sixers decided to be cautious with their best player. He recently spoke about the need for a day off to recover due to his nagging injuries and heavy workload.
“I’ve been playing a lot of minutes, I’ve been playing every single game.” Embiid said. “So to add to that, dealing with the calf and whatever the foot, I think at some point you gotta look at the bigger picture, which is the playoffs, obviously.”
It’s disappointing that Embiid will be unavailable for the highly anticipated matchup with the Nuggets and back-to-back MVP Nikola Jokic, as the two centers are once again MVP frontrunners. Embiid recently played in back-to-back games — road losses at Golden State and at Phoenix — on Friday and Saturday. Still, being healthy for a potential playoff push is obviously much more important, as he mentioned.
In other Sixers health news, forward Danuel House (shoulder) participated in Monday’s shootaround and told reporters he was going to suit up on Monday (Twitter link via Keith Pompey of The Philadelphia Inquirer). House had missed the past two games with the injury.
Draft Notes: Ware, Bamba, Nolley, Top Prospects, More
Oregon center Kel’el Ware has decided to transfer to a new school and does not intend to enter the 2023 NBA Draft, he tells Travis Branham of 247Sports.com.
Ware, who averaged 6.6 points, 4.1 rebounds and 1.3 blocks on .457/.273/.712 shooting in 35 games (15.8 MPG) as a freshman for the Ducks, is a former top high school recruit and is currently ranked No. 35 on ESPN’s big board.
While Ware was a projected second-round pick, Jonathan Givony of ESPN says (via Twitter) “there were real concerns” about the big man’s chances of getting drafted.
Here are some more draft-related notes:
- Washington State’s TJ Bamba has decided to test the draft waters. He’s entering the draft while maintaining his college eligibility and will also enter the transfer portal, he announced on Twitter. The junior guard averaged 15.8 points and 3.7 rebounds on .426/.372/.730 shooting in 31 games for the Cougars (32.2 MPG) in 2022/23.
- Cincinnati guard/forward Landers Nolley will declare for the draft, he tells Givony (Twitter link). According to his own announcement (via Twitter), Nolley will maintain his college eligibility, so he won’t be hiring an agent just yet. Nolley, who has one year of eligibility left after previous stops at Virginia Tech and Memphis, averaged a team-high 16.8 points along with 5.8 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 1.0 steal on .447/.417/.750 shooting in 36 games (32.1 MPG) for the Bearcats this season.
- Which top draft prospects boosted their stock in the NCAA tournament? Givony tackles that subject in a story for ESPN (Insider link). Jordan Hawkins (No. 15 on ESPN’s big board) and Andre Jackson (No. 39) may hear their names called earlier by helping UConn advance to the Final Four.
- The Ringer’s Kevin O’Connor released a new mock draft last week. One surprising pick in his mock is Tennessee forward Julian Phillips, who is ranked No. 56 by ESPN. O’Connor has the freshman going No. 29 to the Pacers.
- Jonathan Wasserman of Bleacher Report examines what scouts are looking to see from five potential NBA prospects in the Final Four. Miami’s Isaiah Wong and Jordan Miller have a chance to help themselves once again as they face off against UConn, according to Wasserman.
Brandon Ingram, Jaylen Brown Named Players Of The Week
Pelicans forward Brandon Ingram and Celtics guard/forward Jaylen Brown have been named the NBA’s players of the week, the league announced on Monday (Twitter link).
In three games last week, all victories, Ingram averaged 32.3 points, 10.0 assists and 6.3 rebounds on a stellar .525/.462/1.000 shooting line. It looked for a while like New Orleans was in serious danger of falling out of the playoff race, but the team is now 37-37, the No. 8 seed in the West.
Brown, the East’s winner, averaged 31.7 points, 8.3 rebounds and 3.7 assists on a similarly excellent .559/.391/.714 shooting line. Boston blew out the Kings, Pacers and Spurs last week to go 3-0. The Celtics have the second-best record in the league at 52-23, trailing the top-seeded Bucks by 1.5 games.
According to the NBA (Twitter link), the other nominees in the West were Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jaren Jackson Jr., Nikola Jokic and Naz Reid, while Zach LaVine, Tyrese Maxey, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley and Franz Wagner were nominated in the East.
NBA Rescinds Luka Doncic’s 16th Technical Foul
The NBA has rescinded Luka Doncic‘s 16th technical foul and he will not be suspended for Monday’s game at Indiana, the league announced (via Twitter). The Mavericks‘ star guard was originally issued the technical in the third quarter of Sunday’s loss at Charlotte.
After the game, crew chief Kevin Scott said the officials made the right call in assessing a technical on Doncic because he used profane language, per Callie Caplan of The Dallas Morning News.
“Doncic was assessed a technical foul for his use of profanity directed at the officials in protest to a no-call that was correctly judged in postgame video review,” Scott said.
Apparently the NBA disagreed with Scott’s assessment.
Players are automatically suspended for one game without pay once they reach 16 technical fouls unless they are later rescinded, as is the case with Doncic. It would have been his first suspension, according to Caplan.
It remains to be seen whether Doncic will actually suit up for Monday’s game even though he won’t be suspended. It’s the second of a back-to-back, and he has only played in one out of five back-to-back sets this season. He also missed five games earlier this month with a left thigh strain, so it wouldn’t be surprising if he sat out, despite Dallas’ precarious spot in the standings.
The Mavs have lost seven of their past nine games — including four straight — to drop to 36-39, the No. 11 seed in the West. Losing two straight to the Hornets was particularly disappointing, as Charlotte has the fourth-worst record in the league and had multiple starters out with injuries in both games.
Doncic, who was fined $35K last week for “directing an inappropriate and unprofessional gesture” toward a referee, recently talked about his heightened level of frustration, not just with the team’s poor play, but due to personal issues as well.
Community Shootaround: Defensive Player Of The Year
According to betting site BetOnline.ag, Bucks center Brook Lopez and Grizzlies forward/center Jaren Jackson Jr. are in a two-man race for the NBA’s Defensive Player of the Year award.
Interestingly, when I considered doing a Community Shootaround on this topic a few weeks ago, Jackson was a pretty strong favorite with Lopez the runner-up, but those odds have flipped — Lopez is currently the leading candidate at minus-225, followed by Jackson at plus-175. The only other two players listed are Bucks big man Giannis Antetokounmpo (plus-2500) and Heat center Bam Adebayo (plus-3300), but they’re considered long shots with the regular season nearing its conclusion.
Both Lopez and Jackson have compelling cases. Lopez anchors the NBA’s top defense, which is the primary reason the Bucks have the best record in the league. With Lopez on the court, the Bucks have a 106.3 defensive rating, and they’re 4.1 points per 100 possessions worse defensively when he’s not playing.
It’s been a remarkable year for the 34-year-old, who is averaging a career-high 2.5 blocks per game (second in the league) and has only missed two games. According to NBA.com‘s data, he has contested more shots than any player in the league by a significant margin, with opponents shooting 4.5% worse than expected on those attempts. Among players who have contested at least five shots per game at the rim, opponents are shooting just 50% against Lopez, which ranks second in the league, per NBA.com.
Jackson has played 15 fewer games than Lopez following offseason foot surgery, and has played fewer minutes in those games (28.1 MPG compared to 30.6 for Lopez). Barring injury, there’s no way for him to make up ground in those areas. He has only contested 13.8 shots per game versus Lopez’s 22.9.
That said, there’s a strong argument to be made that Jackson has been more impactful in the time he has been on the court, even if he’s played nearly 600 fewer minutes to this point. The Grizzlies hold the league’s third-best defense. With Jackson on the court, the Grizzlies have a 105.7 defensive rating, and they’re 5.7 points worse defensively when he’s off the court.
Lopez ranks second in blocks per game because he trails Jackson, who is averaging 3.0 while leading the league in block percentage. He’s also averaging 1.0 steal compared to 0.5 for Lopez, so Jackson easily clears in steals plus blocks (4.0 vs 3.0).
Opponents are shooting 4.7% worse than expected with Jackson as the nearest defender, and they are only shooting 46.4% at the rim against him — that’s the best mark for a full-time player since 2013/14, according to NBA.com.
We want to know what you think. Who should win the Defensive Player of the Year award in 2022/23? Head to the comments to weigh in with your thoughts!
Warriors Won’t Pursue Grievance Against Trail Blazers
4:05pm: The Blazers released a statement confirming the news, tweets Aaron J. Fentress of The Oregonian.
“The Golden State Warriors have decided to not pursue a grievance against the Blazers over the Payton trade. We are moving on, and glad to put this behind us.”
3:34pm: The Warriors have decided not to pursue an NBA investigation against the Trail Blazers following the four-team trade at last month’s deadline, league sources tell Chris Haynes of TNT and Bleacher Report (Twitter link).
The trade was held up for multiple days after the Warriors failed Gary Payton II‘s physical due to an adductor injury, but they ultimately decided to go through with it.
Payton has yet to play for the Warriors since the trade, but he is officially listed as probable for Sunday’s game and he intends to play against Minnesota barring a last-minute setback, per Kendra Andrew of ESPN (Twitter links). The veteran guard will be on an undisclosed minutes restriction, Andrews adds.
Payton, who helped the Warriors win the championship in 2021/22, signed a three-year, $26.1MM contract with Portland last summer, but only appeared in 15 games for the Blazers after offseason adductor surgery. He started for Portland the day before the trade.
A formal league inquiry into the Portland’s alleged failure to provide sufficient medical information was expected to be opened, but according to Haynes, the Warriors have decided against that course of action. It certainly doesn’t seem like a coincidence that Haynes’ report coincides with Payton’s imminent return to the court.
Ohio State’s Brice Sensabaugh Testing Draft Waters
Ohio State forward Brice Sensabaugh has decided to declare for the 2023 NBA Draft while maintaining his college eligibility, he announced on Twitter.
As a freshman for the Buckeyes in 2022/23, Sensabaugh averaged 16.3 points and 5.4 rebounds on .480/.405/.830 shooting in 33 games (21 starts, 24.5 minutes per contest). He is a projected first-round pick and could even be drafted in the lottery, as he is currently ranked No. 18 on ESPN’s top-100 list.
As Jonathan Givony writes for ESPN, Sensabaugh was a prolific college scorer and posted strong efficiency numbers, but Ohio State had a disappointing 16-19 season.
There are question marks about Sensabaugh’s defense, frame (he’s listed at 6’6″ and 235 pounds), and what position he’ll play at the NBA level, as he was an undersized power forward in college, according to Givony.
“Strong Optimism” Anthony Edwards Could Return Sunday
There’s “strong optimism” that guard/forward Anthony Edwards could return to the Timberwolves‘ lineup for Sunday’s game at Golden State, sources tell Chris Haynes of TNT and Bleacher Report (Twitter link).
Edwards has missed the past three games — his first absences of the season — after spraining his right ankle last week against Chicago. He sustained the injury in the first quarter when he landed awkwardly and rolled his ankle following a cross-court jump pass.
The former No. 1 overall pick had scored eight points in eight minutes in the game, which the Wolves went on to lose without him. They have gone 2-1 in the subsequent three games to currently hold a 37-37 record, making them the No. 7 seed in the West.
While the injury certainly looked bad at the time, Edwards has been listed as questionable before being ruled out in each of the past three contests, indicating the sprain wasn’t as serious as it could have been.
A first-time All-Star in 2022/23, Edwards is Minnesota’s leading scorer, averaging career highs in points (24.7), rebounds (5.9), assists (4.4) and steals (1.6) per game. He has posted .461/.371/.767 shooting splits through 71 games (36.0 minutes).
Houston’s Jarace Walker Plans To Enter 2023 NBA Draft
After being eliminated by Miami in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA tournament, Houston forward Jarace Walker told reporters that he plans to enter the 2023 NBA Draft, per Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports (Twitter link).
In 36 games (27.6 MPG) with the Cougars in 2022/23, the 6’8″ freshman averaged 11.2 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.0 SPG and 1.3 BPG on .465/.347/.663 shooting. Walker is currently the No. 6 prospect on ESPN’s top-100 list.
While Walker’s individual stats don’t jump off the page, he is considered one of the best defenders in the 2023 class, which is why he’s a potential top-five pick.
ESPN’s Jonathan Givony recently praised Walker for his ability to protect the rim and stand tall against big men in the post while also switching onto perimeter players and drawing charges.