Traded 2013 Draft Picks Still Up In The Air
With just a handful of games remaining in the 2012/13 regular season, most traded 2013 draft picks that included some sort of protection have been locked in, with teams' records ensuring those picks will either change hands or stay put. The Bulls, for instance, obviously aren't getting the Bobcats' top-12-protected pick, while the Jazz know definitively that they will receive Golden State's top-six-protected first-rounder.
There are still a handful of picks whose fate remains up in the air, however. For instance, the Suns and Cavaliers are watching the Lakers' place in the standings anxiously, since Phoenix will get L.A.'s pick if the Lakers miss the playoffs, while the Cavs will grab it if the Lakers earn a postseason berth. With the help of our projected draft order, here are the details on that pick and the rest of the selections that still may or may not change hands:
Team: Raptors (30-48)
Protection details: First-round pick sent to Thunder if not between 1-3 or 15-30.
Projected landing spot: 10th
Current outlook: The Raptors have a chance to jump into the top three in the draft lottery to keep their pick, but it's a real long shot. Assuming they finish with the league's 10th-worst record, the Raps' odds of landing a top-three pick will be about 4%.
Team: Trail Blazers (33-45)
Protection details: First-round pick sent to Bobcats if not in top 12.
Projected landing spot: 12th
Current outlook: With Dallas five games ahead of them in the standings, the Trail Blazers will finish with no better than the league's 12th-worst record. That bodes well for their chances of keeping their first-rounder, since the odds of the 13th and/or 14th teams leapfrogging the Blazers in the lottery (pushing them out of the top 12) are only about 4%.
Team: Lakers (42-37)
Protection details: First-round pick sent to Suns if in top 14. If not in top 14, Cavaliers can swap Heat first-round pick with Lakers first-rounder; Lakers then send Heat pick to Suns.
Projected landing spot: 15th
Current outlook: A game up on the Jazz, the Lakers are in the driver's seat in the race for the final Western Conference playoff spot, but they'll host the Warriors, Spurs, and Rockets in their last three games, so it won't be a cakewalk. The Jazz hold the playoff tiebreaker and finish with games against the Timberwolves (twice) and Grizzlies. John Hollinger's playoffs odds give the Lakers 73.5% odds to earn the 8th seed, but this could still go either way.
Team: Trail Blazers (33-45)
Protection details: Second-round pick sent to Nuggets if not in top 40.
Projected landing spot: 42nd
Current outlook: Unlike the team's first-rounder, Portland isn't likely to keep this pick. Even if the Blazers' losing streak continues and they don't win another game this season, two of the Raptors, Sixers, and Timberwolves would have to finish the year with a handful of wins to push Portland's pick into the top 40. That means the Nuggets will probably receive it.
Team: Clippers (52-26)
Protection details: Second-round pick sent to Pistons if not in top 55.
Projected landing spot: 55th
Current outlook: The Clippers are a half-game up on the Knicks in the NBA standings and are within a game of the Grizzlies and two games of the Nuggets, so this pick remains unsettled. If the Pistons land it, it'd be one more very small asset in an offseason where the team is expected to have a lottery pick and a ton of cap space.
Team: Grizzlies (53-25)
Protection details: Second-round pick sent to Lakers if not in top 55.
Projected landing spot: 56th
Current outlook: A late-season loss or two for the Grizz could mean this pick ends up in the top 55 and remains in their control, but I don't think either team is losing much sleep over it.
Odds & Ends: Scott, Irving, Nowitzki, Gordon
There's a lot of concern over Danilo Gallinari's season-ending injury, but Mark Kiszla of the Denver Post doesn't think it puts much of a dent in the Nuggets' playoff chances. Most Hoops Rumors readers believe the Nuggets had no chance of a title anyway, though our readers picked Denver as the most likely "Cinderella" team to make the NBA Finals this year. Here's more from around the Association..
- When asked whether he supports Byron Scott and would be disappointed if he were fired, Cavs guard Kyrie Irving said he did not want to address the topic at this time, according to Mary Schmitt Boyer of the Plain Dealer (on Twitter). Scott is one of many NBA coaches perceived to be on the hot seat after the season and a lack of support from Irving could hurt his case.
- Dirk Nowitzki reiterated his desire to stay with the Mavericks, but also says that he wants to play for a championship again in his final couple of years, tweets Dwain Price of the Star Telegram.
- The Hornets will probably still be open to trading Eric Gordon this summer, sources tell John Reid of The Times-Picayune.
- Rick Bonnell of the Charlotte Observer gives his take on end-of-season awards with the final night of the regular season just 10 days away. Not surprisingly, he has LeBron James winning his fourth MVP award in five years.
- Kobe Bryant says that he doesn't want to play point guard just to extend his career, but he has looked awfully good doing it, tweets Mark Medina of the Los Angeles Times.
Poll: How Will Gallinari Injury Affect Nuggets?
The Nuggets received some crushing news today when an MRI revealed that, as feared, Danilo Gallinari suffered a torn ACL in his left knee during last night's win against the Mavs, knocking him out for the season. The team's press release on its website doesn't indicate whether Gallinari will be ready for training camp in the fall, but the Nuggets probably aren't too concerned with next season just yet, with this year's playoffs set to start in two weeks.
Gallinari, who's on Denver's books for more than $32.5MM through 2016, is the team's second leading scorer this season, averaging 16.2 points per game, just slightly less than the 16.7 PPG Ty Lawson produces. There's no denying the 24-year-old Gallinari is a key cog for a Nuggets team currently in third place in the Western Conference. Still, there's reason to believe Denver, with all its depth, will do just fine without him.
Soon-to-be free agent Corey Brewer seems the most logical candidate to inherit Gallinari's minutes. A couple weeks ago, Nuggets coach George Karl told Sam Amick of USA Today that he wanted to give Brewer more time at the end of games, but was hesitant to do so because of the money the team owes to Gallinari and Andre Iguodala.
"I have no problem finishing any way I think I can win," Karl said. "Sometimes that ruffles the feathers a little bit of my players. But Corey Brewer is the guy who I think has played well enough to finish a lot of games. I don't do it all the time, and when I don't do it I think it's unfair to Corey, because even though Iguodala and Gallo are the high-paid dudes, sometimes Corey is the better basketball player. It's not right that we always give it to the guy who gets paid the most money. There should not be an entitlement that because you get paid the most money, that you should finish every game. But if you don't do it, then the agents are going to call and the players are going to mope and so you negotiate that. It's a compromise as a coach."
While the Heat were running off their 27-game winning streak, the Nuggets had a lengthy winning streak of their own that lasted 15 games. Gallinari played in 13 of them, but his performance was subpar. He averaged just 12.7 PPG, and his field-goal shooting (37.8%) was well below his season mark of 41.8%. Gallinari is renowned as a three-point sharpshooter, but his 37.3% accuracy from behind the arc this year is less than the 40.2% displayed by Wilson Chandler, another candidate to see increased minutes with Gallinari out.
There were questions about whether Denver's up-tempo attack would hold up in the playoffs even before the Gallinari injury, and the doubts are no less apparent today. Still, it's worth wondering if the Nuggets' chances of winning the title are really any worse off than they were yesterday. Let us know your thoughts with either a vote, a comment, or both.
How Will Gallinari Injury Affect Nuggets?
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They weren't going to win the title either way. 57% (204)
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They had a shot to win the title before the injury, but now they don't. 22% (77)
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They had a shot to win the title before the injury, and they still do. 22% (77)
Total votes: 358
Northwest Notes: Iguodala, Brewer, Maynor
The Nuggets escaped last night's game against the Mavericks with a 95-94 win, maintaining their hold on the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference, but the bad news outweighed the good. Danilo Gallinari left the game with a knee injury that both Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports and Benjamin Hochman of the Denver Post hear is likely an ACL tear. As the Nuggets wait for more information on an injury that could be a huge blow to the team's title chances, let's check in on a few other notes out of the Northwest….
- Andre Iguodala spoke to Hochman about a recent report suggesting he'd likely opt out of his contract with the Nuggets this summer, stressing that no decision has been made yet, and that he'll explore every option. "It would be hard for me to win a championship here, or get to the Finals or get to the Western Conference Finals and say, 'You know, I'm out,'" Iguodala said. "I don't want to make any guarantees, but if that happens, it would be obvious, [Nuggets GM] Masai [Ujiri] and them would understand my worth to the team and we could come to an agreement. But who knows what is going to happen? I could get hurt tomorrow and then have to opt in."
- Corey Brewer has blossomed as a crucial piece of the Nuggets' rotation in Denver, but Mark Cuban and the Mavericks don't have any regrets about trading him, as Tim MacMahon of ESPNDallas.com writes.
- While Eric Maynor's future with the Trail Blazers remains in limbo, GM Neil Olshey says the team has thoroughly evaluated Maynor and is satisfied that the point guard fits with the team's core pieces, according to Chris Haynes of CSNNW.com. I would be a little surprised if Maynor receives a qualifying offer, since that would put a sizable dent in the Blazers' cap space, but I'd still expect the club to try to re-sign him.
- Olshey on the Blazers' offseason plan: "We'll be very proactive this summer. What we've seen this season is that this team isn't very far away. We'll have the flexibility to make a move if we choose to do so or not, but it has to be the right move for the organization."
Iguodala To Likely Opt Out
According to Chris Tomasson of FOX Sports Florida, Nuggets swingman Andre Iguodala will likely opt out of his contract this summer. He is currently averaging 12.7 PPG, 5.1 APG, and 5.1 RPG while shooting 44.5% from the field in 34.4 MPG.
Though Iguodala is eligible $16.1MM player option next year, Tomasson writes that the ninth-year veteran would rather sign a multi-year deal that pays him less next season but brings a long-term commitment:
“Yeah, definitely…You got to weigh options. Security-wise, a player would opt, especially with the type of season we’ve had as a team. Teams know what I can bring to them, and I know (the Nuggets) know what I can bring to a team here…Players get like $50, $60 or $70 or $80 (million over multiple years), whatever the number was, they gave up a big number (in an option season by opting out). But in the grand scheme of things, pretty much get it back. You got security.’’
The University of Arizona product offered no guarantees that he would stay in Denver beyond this season if he opts out, but added that he likes the direction that the team is headed:
“Obviously, it’s a business, so you’re going to look at your options. Here we have some good (prospects). But I’m not making any promises. But I’ve liked the last month and a half, two months, three months or however long (that Denver has been on a roll). It’s important for the future, so I’m just trying to win.’’
Southwest Rumors: Grizzlies, White, Brewer
The Mavericks are one of only two NBA teams sitting the night out, but the Grizzlies appear to be especially busy, juxtaposing a tough road game against the Knicks tonight with reports that they're apparently seeking a point guard. There's more on that and other news from Southwest Division teams, as we round up here:
- In a piece chronicling the Mavs' run at a playoff spot, Alex Kennedy of HoopsWorld wonders whether D-League center Jerome Jordan could be a fit for the Grizzlies. With starting center Marc Gasol back from injury and the team linked to Keyon Dooling and Jonny Flynn, there may not be much call for Jordan in Memphis.
- Royce White had his best showing as a pro Tuesday, with 19 points, eight rebounds and six assists in his return to the D-League's Rio Grande Valley Vipers, but he plans on leaving the Rockets' affiliate again when the regular season is over, as he tells David Hinojosa of The Monitor. "I’ll be here until the end of the regular season," the rookie said. "The playoff schedule and how hectic it is in the D-League probably ain’t going be the best thing for me. Going to the playoffs, I want them to have a team that’s going to stick together."
- Corey Brewer says he wants to return to the Nuggets as a free agent in the offseason, but the swingman also reveals that he came close to signing with the Spurs before inking his current deal, notes Benjamin Hochman of the Denver Post. The Celtics were also in the running for Brewer before the Mavs scooped him up and later traded him to the Nuggets.
- Giannis Antetokoumpo of Greece, who plays point guard despite his 6'10" height and 7'3" wingspan, has drawn interest from Rockets GM Daryl Morey, among others, reports Chris Sheridan of SheridanHoops.com. Bryan Colangelo of the Raptors, Masai Ujiri of the Nuggets, and Sam Presti of the Thunder are the other GMs who've traveled to scout Antetokoumpo, who has an affordable buyout clause in his contract for next season with Zaragoza of Spain, according to Sheridan. While there appears to be some confusion about the spelling of his last name, he's No. 32 on the DraftExpress list of the top 100 draft prospects.
Poll: Western Conference Playoff Matchups
Heading into tonight's action, the Spurs and Thunder look fairly safe as the top two seeds in the Western Conference. The Spurs have a five and a half game lead on the third-place Grizzlies, while the Thunder remain three games up on the Grizz, even after last night's loss in Memphis.
However, the last several weeks of the season figure to provide a very entertaining race for the No. 3 seed in the West. While the Grizzlies (46-21) currently hold the spot, it's only by percentage points over the Clippers (47-22) and Nuggets (47-22). All three teams are nine and a half games ahead of the sixth-place Warriors.
While the race for the third seed hasn't received as much coverage as the battle for the eighth seed, it figures to be crucial for a team's chances of getting out of the first round. For instance, if the Grizzlies hold onto the third spot, they would host a playoff series against an opponent like the Warriors and Rockets, rather than having to go up against the Clippers and Nuggets right away.
With five Western teams seemingly head and shoulders above the rest of the conference, at least two of those elite clubs will have to play one another in the first round. The Thunder and Spurs almost certainly won't be involved, so which of the other three potential matchups would intrigue you most? A rematch of last year's first-round series between the Grizzlies and Clippers? Or a series involving an entertaining Nuggets team that has won its last 13 games? Weigh in below!
Which Western Conference first round matchup would you most like to see?
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Los Angeles Clippers vs. Denver Nuggets 60% (244)
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Memphis Grizzlies vs. Los Angeles Clippers 20% (82)
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Denver Nuggets vs. Memphis Grizzlies 20% (80)
Total votes: 406
George Karl Talks Nuggets, Lineups, Contract
Typically, a winning streak like the Nuggets' current 13-game run would be one of the NBA's biggest ongoing stories, but Denver's current stretch has been overshadowed by Miami's streak, which is up to 24 consecutive wins. That's probably fine with head coach George Karl, who is focused on getting his team a top-four seed and home court advantage for the first round of the postseason. Karl spoke to Sam Amick of USA Today about a number of topics, including his contract situation and how the team has evolved since the Carmelo Anthony trade. Here are a few highlights from Karl:
On turning into a contender so soon after moving Carmelo:
"I definitely think that the speed that we've built ourselves back into being a contender in the Western Conference has surprised me. We have one player on the team that played with Melo. The Melo trade was, what, two years ago in February? And you have to remember that one of those years was a lockout year. So probably the team has only played together less than 100 games.
"And then you had the Nene trade last year. Nene was another piece that we changed up. That was kind of the final addition that 'we're going to go with young players.' During the year, we played Kosta (Koufos) and Timo (Timofey Mozgov) a lot more than we played Bird (Chris Andersen) and Nene. We turned it over to all the young guys. The team has evolved. It's worked hard. It has stayed focused … My team even last year always thought they could play with the big boys. Now that they have the consistency to play an 82-game season together and show that they're good enough, that's what we're doing this year."
On managing a deep roster and deciding on crunch-time lineups:
"I have no problem finishing any way I think I can win. Sometimes that ruffles the feathers a little bit of my players. But Corey Brewer is the guy who I think has played well enough to finish a lot of games. I don't do it all the time, and when I don't do it I think it's unfair to Corey, because even though (Andre) Iguodala and Gallo (Danilo Gallinari) are the high-paid dudes, sometimes Corey is the better basketball player. It's not right that we always give it to the guy who gets paid the most money. There should not be an entitlement that because you get paid the most money, that you should finish every game. But if you don't do it, then the agents are going to call and the players are going to mope and so you negotiate that. It's a compromise as a coach."
On whether his track record gives him more leeway with coaching decisions:
"I don't think there's any question that I don't think young coaches can maybe take the risks that I take. But in the same sense, I think my staff and I work very hard on explaining what we're doing. And we have no problem with a player wanting to play, and we have no problem answering a question of why you're not playing — in fact we encourage it, we like it, we want players to want to play, we want them to be angry when they're not playing, but we don't want them to degrade the team or negate the team (with) a negative attitude during the game or during practice or in the locker room."
On whether he's considering retirement:
"Well, I've got one year left on my deal here (after this season), with a three-year option. I don't think I think about retirement, but I don't think about the rat race of what's my next job going to be. It's not in the back of my mind, other than I'm going to probably finish my career — hopefully I finish my career here in Denver. That gives me, again, more balance and probably a more secure perspective on coaching than most coaches have in this business because I think all coaches are always worried about their job a little bit."
Teams Projected To Be Taxpayers In 2013/14
Earlier this month, I looked at Eastern and Western Conference teams that could create room for a maximum contract this offseason. With more punitive luxury-tax penalties on the way, and CBA rules in place that restrict flexibility for taxpaying teams, more clubs are looking to maintain cap space, or at least stay well below the tax line.
Still, there are plenty of teams whose commitments for 2013/14, the first year that those more punitive tax penalties will take effect, already put them well into tax territory. We won't know for sure until the summer what the tax line for '13/14 will be, but it's unlikely to be too much higher than this season's $70.307MM mark.
In addition to facing increased penalties for being in the tax, taxpaying teams will lose the ability to make certain roster moves. Any club that spends more than the taxpayer mid-level exception, uses its bi-annual exception, or acquires a player via sign-and-trade next season won't be permitted to increase its team salary more than $4MM above the tax threshold — those clubs will face a hard cap similar to the one the Bulls have been up against this year.
There's still plenty of time between now and the start of next season for teams to cut salary, whether that means making trades, using amnesty clauses, or reaching buyout agreements with players. But for now, here are the teams projected to be in tax territory for 2013/14:
- Boston Celtics: If Paul Pierce chooses to turn down his $15.33MM player option, or the team buys him out for the guaranteed $4MM on that option, perhaps the Celtics can avoid the tax, but both scenarios are improbable. With Pierce's full salary on the books, the C's have $72.77MM committed to 11 players, which will put them slightly over the tax threshold. The C's could be candidates to explore a trade or two that would help them slide back below that line.
- Brooklyn Nets: With over $84MM in guaranteed money on their books for 2013/14, the Nets are on their way to becoming perennial taxpayers — incredibly, the club also has $76MM+ committed for '14/15, and potentially close to $73MM for '15/16.
- Chicago Bulls: Poised to pay the tax for the first time this season, the Bulls might have to do it again next year if they don't make any cost-cutting moves. The team currently has more than $74MM committed to eight players.
- Los Angeles Lakers: The Lakers' current commitments total $77.63MM, which doesn't seem too bad until you consider that a maximum-salary contract for Dwight Howard will likely be added to that figure. If the Lakers don't make any trades or use the amnesty clause, their tax bill will end up being nearly as large as their team salary.
- Miami Heat: The Heat will rack up a significant tax bill in '13/14, but ownership should be happy to pay that price for what could be the team's last run together. LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh all the have the ability to opt out of their contracts in the summer of 2014.
- New York Knicks: Interestingly, the six teams that look like near-locks to be in the tax next season are the same six that will be taxpayers this season. Considering the looming repeater tax that takes effect in 2015, some of these clubs have to be prioritizing getting below the tax line by '14/15. It won't be easy for the Knicks to do that though — they no longer have the amnesty clause, and don't have many trade assets. New York has $74MM+ in commitments for '13/14 (assuming J.R. Smith declined his player option) and $76MM+ for the following season (assuming Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire exercise their player options).
Honorable mention:
- Denver Nuggets: The Nuggets' position in relation to the tax will depend in large part on Andre Iguodala's contract situation. If Iguodala were to pick up his player option or sign a long-term deal with a similar starting salary, Denver would be up to nearly $68MM in commitments for 11 players, meaning minimum-salary players might be necessary to fill out the roster and avoid the tax.
- Golden State Warriors: Player options will also have a significant impact on the Warriors' team salary, as Andris Biedrins, Richard Jefferson, and Brandon Rush all appear to be near-locks to opt in. If Carl Landry does too, Golden State's salary would be about $73MM for 11 players, making it tricky to get out of the tax.
- Oklahoma City Thunder: Avoiding becoming a long-term taxpayer was a primary motivation in the James Harden trade, so one would assume the Thunder will do everything they can to stay out of the tax next season. Still, if the team hopes to bring back Kevin Martin, they'll have to add him to a roster that already includes $65MM+ in salary commitments.
- Toronto Raptors: Currently projected to be in the tax, the Raptors could easily avoid it by amnestying Andrea Bargnani ($10.75MM), but will likely amnesty Linas Kleiza ($4.6MM) instead. That should be enough to sneak below the tax line, but it won't give them a ton of flexibility to make additional moves without going back into tax territory.
Storytellers Contracts was used in the creation of this post.
Knicks Links: Carmelo, Nets, Stoudemire
One reunion between a star player and his former home court received plenty of fanfare yesterday, as Dwight Howard put up a monster 39-point, 16-rebound line in his return to Orlando. Tonight will feature another star playing his former team, as Carmelo Anthony and the Knicks face the Nuggets in Denver. Because of the 2011 lockout, the Knicks didn't travel to Denver in a shortened '11/12 season, making this time the first time Carmelo has played in Denver since being traded in February 2011.
Here are a few Wednesday morning Knicks notes, with a focus on that Carmelo trade:
- Discussing his desire to be traded to New York, Anthony tells Marc J. Spears of Yahoo! Sports that a number of Nuggets players at the time were on expiring contracts, and he was facing the possibility of being on a rebuilding team. "People didn't really know the business side of the situation we were in," Anthony said. "Everybody's contract was up. They had plans of going younger. People from the outside looking in didn't really get it."
- When the Nuggets and Knicks finalized the blockbuster deal, it was one of two options on the table for Denver GM Masai Ujiri. According to Spears, an offer from the Nets was also available, which included Derrick Favors, Devin Harris, Troy Murphy, and three draft picks. The Nets ultimately sent a similar package to the Jazz for Deron Williams.
- Sunny Saini of ESPN Stats & Info and Ian Begley of ESPNNewYork.com each explore the question of who "won" the 'Melo trade between the Nuggets and Knicks. Begley reaches the same conclusion I would, arguing that both sides would likely do the deal again.
- Ian O'Connor of ESPNNewYork.com believes that, as bad as Amare Stoudemire's contract looks for the Knicks, it was a necessary evil, since it contributed significantly to the team becoming relevant again.