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2018 Free Agent Stock Watch: Portland Trail Blazers

March 29th, 2018 at 10:17pm CST by Austin Kent

The Trail Blazers are burdened by some unpalatable long-term contracts, but the $112MM already on the books for 2018/19 is tolerable given that they’re in the running for home-court advantage in the first-round of the playoffs.

With little foreseeable cap space projected until the summer of 2020 at the earliest, the Blazers will have to make some decisions on whether to keep the current core together or make more ambitious, financially-driven moves to position themselves for the future.

The 2017/18 campaign saw general manager Neil Olshey unload 22-year-old Noah Vonleh at the trade deadline in order to duck under the luxury tax line. Could a deep postseason run in the spring be enough to convince franchise owner Paul Allen to blow by that threshold next year?

Jusuf Nurkic, C, 23 (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $8MM contract in 2014.
While Nurkic’s value tends to fluctuate from month to month, there’s no denying that he’s capable of big things if given an opportunity. Were it not for the Blazers’ financial binds, bringing back the Bosnian Beast on a significant deal would be a no-brainer. Alas, making or matching a significant offer for the big man would vault Portland well into the luxury tax, something that we’re not quite sure the club is willing to do yet. It would be a shame for the Blazers to watch Nurkic walk for nothing, so expect them to work the phones aggressively to see if they can find a way to make it work. If they can’t, he’ll get paid elsewhere, even with a glut of other available centers on the market.

Pat Connaughton, SG, 25 (Up) – Signed to a three-year, $3MM deal in 2015.
After two years of sparse playing time, Connaughton has carved out a role for himself in Portland’s rotation. The dual-threat athlete won’t break the bank as a restricted free agent, but could be a welcomed addition should the Blazers look to bring the familiar face back on the cheap.

Ed Davis, C, 29 (Down) – Signed to a three-year, $20MM deal in 2015.
While Davis has consistently established himself as an efficient player in reserve minutes, he’s never taken the leap to make a case for himself as a starter. The big man should be able to at least replicate his last contract considering his per-36 rates of 10.2 points and 14.0 boards, but don’t bank on that coming in Portland — he’s a replaceable piece of the current puzzle.

Shabazz Napier, PG, 26 (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $6MM contract in 2014.
It took Napier four years and three teams to find a home in the NBA, but he has finally come into his own in Oregon. The prolific 26-year-old combo guard has slotted in admirably behind Portland’s celebrated starting duo – a duo consisting of two other prolific combo guards – and has stepped up occasionally when called upon. In nine games as a starter, the former UConn standout has posted 15.8 points, 4.4 rebounds and 4.4 assists per contest, and may have shown just enough in those stints to draw an offer sheet out of a desperate team in restricted free agency. It’s hard to imagine Olshey digging deep to match an aggressive offer from a team with cap space to spare but that wouldn’t be for a lack of interest.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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How Non-Guaranteed Salaries Will Affect Trades In New CBA

March 28th, 2018 at 4:22pm CST by Luke Adams

Under the NBA’s old Collective Bargaining Agreement, which was in effect through the 2016/17 season, a player’s full salary (not including unlikely incentives) was used for trade purposes, whether or not it was guaranteed. If a player had an $10MM salary with a partial guarantee of $1MM, his outgoing salary in a trade was the same as it would have been for a player who had a fully guaranteed $10MM contract.

That’s no longer the case under the league’s new CBA, however. While contracts signed under the old agreement still operate by the old rules, contracts signed after July 1, 2017 will be subject to the rules of the current CBA.

Under the current CBA, only the guaranteed portion of a player’s contract counts for outgoing salary purposes in a trade, limiting the appeal of non-guaranteed salaries as trade chips.

This detail is crucial for determining how much salary a team can acquire in a trade — unless a team is under the cap, the amount of salary it sends out in a trade dictates how much salary it can take back. The amount of salary an over-the-cap team can acquire in a trade ranges from 125% to 175% of its outgoing salary, depending on how much salary the team is sending out and whether or not the team is a taxpayer.

In the old system, it might make sense for a cap-strapped club to trade a player with a guaranteed salary for a player earning an equivalent non-guaranteed salary — the cap-strapped club could then waive that newly-acquired player to cut costs. That’s trickier to do now.

Complicating matters further is that a team can’t simply circumvent the new rules by trading a player before a league year ends on June 30, then having his new team waive him when his non-guaranteed salary goes into effect on July 1. After the end of the regular season, a player’s outgoing salary for trade purposes is the lesser of his current-year salary and the guaranteed portion of his salary for the following season.

Here’s a practical example: Darren Collison‘s deal with the Pacers featured a fully guaranteed $10MM this season, with only $2MM of $10MM guaranteed for 2018/19. Once the regular season ends this year, Collison would only count for $2MM in outgoing salary for trade purposes.

To paint a complete picture of exactly how these new rules work, let’s assume that a free agent signs a two-year, $24MM contract during the summer of 2018. Each year is worth $12MM, but the first season of the contract is guaranteed for $3MM, while the second year is fully non-guaranteed. Here’s how it would count, for trade purposes, as outgoing salary:

  1. From the date of the signing until the one-quarter mark of the 2018/19 season:
    • $3MM
    • Note: Due to other CBA rules, the player wouldn’t become trade-eligible until at least December 15, 2018 anyway.
  2. From the one-quarter mark of the 2018/19 regular season until salaries become guaranteed on January 10, 2019:
    • A prorated amount of the salary based on the player’s earnings to date.
    • Note: The player would earn 1/177th of his $12MM salary per day; so 60 days into the season, his outgoing salary in a trade would be $4,067,797 (60/177ths of $12MM).
  3. From January 10, 2019 until the 2019 trade deadline:
    • $12MM
  4. From the day after the 2018/19 regular season ends until the start of the 2019/20 regular season:
    • $0
  5. From the start of the 2019/20 regular season until salaries become guaranteed on January 10, 2020:
    • A prorated amount of salary based on earnings to date.
    • Note: The player would once again earn 1/177th of his $12MM salary per day; so 10 days into the season, his outgoing salary in a trade would be $677,966 (10/177ths of $12MM).
  6. From January 10, 2020 until the 2020 trade deadline:
    • $12MM

This new rule in the league’s Collective Bargaining Agreement won’t stop teams from tacking on non-guaranteed years to the end of certain players’ contracts, since those non-guaranteed salaries still provide flexibility. However, the new CBA rules will ensure that they’re no longer as valuable for trade purposes as they once were.

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Community Shootaround: Markelle Fultz’s Return

March 27th, 2018 at 12:34pm CST by Luke Adams

After months of uncertainty about his status, Markelle Fultz returned to action for the Sixers on Monday night, with head coach Brett Brown making the surprise announcement just a couple hours before opening tip. Fultz’s night got off to a shaky start when he committed a quick turnover and air-balled his first jump shot, but he finished with 10 points and eight assists in just 14 minutes, contributing a few clips to the game’s highlight reel.

It was a long road back for Fultz, who appeared in just four games at the start of the regular season before being shut down due to shoulder issues — and to rebuild his jumper. For a time, it looked like the Sixers may just keep Fultz on the shelf for the rest of the season, playing it safe as they’d done in past seasons with key players like Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid.

However, after last year’s No. 1 overall pick visited the University of Washington during last month’s All-Star break, he returned to Philadelphia focused on getting back on the court this season, according to Michael Lee of Yahoo Sports. When he told Brown before Monday’s game that he was ready to go, the 76ers head coach was thrilled to get him back in the lineup and was a little emotional when he made the announcement, as Derek Bodner of The Athletic details.

Fultz’s return is exactly what was needed not just for Fultz himself but for team president Bryan Colangelo, writes Sean Deveney of The Sporting News. As Deveney outlines, a segment of Sixers fans attribute the team’s current success solely to former GM Sam Hinkie, rather than assigning any credit to Colangelo. Considering last summer’s trade for Fultz was the biggest risk Colangelo has taken during his tenure in Philadelphia, he had a lot hinging on the point guard’s recovery. Monday night’s performance in Denver looked like a solid first step toward that move paying off.

Still, with the Sixers set to open the postseason in less than three weeks, it remains to be seen whether they can count on Fultz to play a major role during those playoff games. Philadelphia’s roster is somewhat short on playmakers, so in the view of David Murphy of Philly.com, Fultz is someone who can help. But the extent of the rookie’s role down the stretch remains a question mark.

What do you think? Is it a risk to count on Fultz in the postseason? Will he hold his own as Simmons’ backup at the point? Will he be ready to take on an even larger role by the time the playoffs begin? How has his unusual rookie season affected your view of his long-term potential?

Jump into the comment section below to share your thoughts!

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Fantasy Hoops: Burke, Nets, Cook, Rozier

March 26th, 2018 at 3:59pm CST by ChrisCrouse

Whether you’re still alive in the fantasy basketball playoffs (congratulations!) or simply need an edge in daily fantasy, Hoops Rumors has you covered. Here are some basketball nuggets to help you take down the competition down the stretch:

  • Trey Burke is averaging 14.3 points per game while hitting 55.6% of his shots from the field over the last six contests. He’s a solid streaming option on Monday when the Knicks take on the Hornets — no team is allowing opposing point guards to shoot a higher percentage over the last 10 games.
  • The Nets are getting eaten alive on the boards by opposing fives, allowing a league-worst 15.1 rebounds to the position over their last 10 games. Brooklyn plays the Magic on Wednesday and Nikola Vucevic should provide nice value in daily fantasy leagues.
  • Quinn Cook is a must-own for all those still playing in season-long leagues. Over his last eight games (seven starts), the Duke product is scoring 16.0 points per game while shooting 51.0% from the field and knocking down nearly two shots from behind the arc. He’s also adding 4.0 rebounds, 3.6 assists and nearly a steal per contest over that span for a depleted Warriors team. Cook’s teammate and mentor, Stephen Curry, can be dropped in all leagues, as he’s expected to be sidelined through the end of the regular season.
  • Both Kyrie Irving and Marcus Smart are out of the lineup for the remainder of the regular season, which means it’s the Terry Rozier show for the Celtics. Rozier went crazy against Sacramento on Sunday, scoring 33 points on 75% shooting. He also added five rebounds and three assists. He should be owned in all season-long leagues, and his usage makes his an attractive option in daily.
  • The Raptors are the only team with two games this upcoming week. Every other team plays three or four.

Fantasy questions? Take to the comment section below or tweet me at @CW_Crouse.

Missed an earlier edition of Fantasy Hoops? Check out the entire series here.

Statistics are current through Monday morning. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Weekly Mailbag: 3/19/18 – 3/25/18

March 25th, 2018 at 12:57pm CST by Arthur Hill

We have an opportunity for you to hit us up with your questions in this, our weekly mailbag feature. Have a question regarding player movement, the salary cap or the NBA draft? Drop us a line at HoopsRumorsMailbag@Gmail.com.

With Isaiah Thomas hitting free agency, do you think Celtics will get stronger if they bring him back? A Kyrie Irving and IT backcourt duo can rival the James Harden and Chris Paul tandem. — Gregory Dizon

Thomas addressed the possibility this week, tweeting “Anything can happen” when a fan asked him about returning to Boston. And although anything can happen, Thomas still has to feel betrayed by the Celtics’ decision to trade him after all he did for the franchise last season. Also, don’t forget that Irving wanted to leave Cleveland so he could be a clear franchise player. He may not be open to the idea of sharing the ball with Thomas. Boston is already over the cap for next season, so without a deal to open some space, it can’t offer Thomas more than the mid-level exception. That’s less than he wants, but it may be the best offer he can get until he proves his hip has healed enough to allow him to play a full season. It’s hard to predict where Thomas will end up, but it feels like his time with the Celtics is over.

Do you think Atlanta will blow it up this summer? I know they tanked this season, but I think they have some quality talent. Add a high draft pick and impact free agent with their cap space and they could be right back in the playoff mix next year. Thoughts on their direction? — VJ Cruz, via Twitter

There’s not much left to blow up in Atlanta, where they fully committed to rebuilding when they opted not to re-sign Paul Millsap last summer. The Hawks have three first-round draft picks, plus their own near the top of the second round, so they will continue to load up on young, affordable talent. They could have as much as $45MM in cap space, but they aren’t in a position to attract elite free agents and won’t spend it recklessly. Kent Bazemore ($18MM next season with a $19.27MM option for 2019/20) or Dennis Schroder ($15MM in each of the next three seasons) could be available for the right offer, but otherwise the Hawks are content to take things slow and build for the future.

How many teams will make coaching changes once the season is over? — Robert, via Twitter

The Suns are an obvious one as they’ve already launched their coaching search. Although interim coach Jay Triano will get consideration, it seems like the organization wants a fresh start. Jeff Hornacek appears out in New York. It’s hard to see how Stan Van Gundy can survive a late-season collapse in Detroit. And with a new front office team in place, the Magic will likely want to move on from Frank Vogel. Charlotte will be an interesting situation to watch as Steve Clifford has one more year left on his contract and has been to the playoffs just twice in five seasons. So will Los Angeles, where Doc Rivers and Luke Walton may be replaced even though their teams have both overachieved.

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Community Shootaround: Curry, Irving Injuries

March 24th, 2018 at 5:57pm CST by Arthur Hill

Two point guards who squared off in the last three NBA Finals suddenly face health problems heading into this year’s playoffs.

Stephen Curry was diagnosed with a Grade 2 MCL sprain that was revealed in an MRI performed today on his left knee. Curry suffered the injury in Friday’s game, which marked his return to the court after missing two weeks with a tweaked right ankle. The Warriors announced that he will be re-evaluated in three weeks, which coincides with the start of the playoffs.

In Boston, Kyrie Irving is sidelined after undergoing a surgical procedure today on his left knee. The operation was described as minimally invasive and was performed to remove a tension wire that was inserted when he fractured his patella during the 2015 NBA Finals. Doctors say Irving should be able to resume basketball activities in three to six weeks, which doesn’t necessarily mean he will be cleared to play at that point.

Both teams are locked pretty solidly into second place in their respective conferences, so today’s injury news shouldn’t affect the regular season standings. However, both become more vulnerable in a first-round matchup if Curry and Irving can’t play.

The bottom of the West remains jumbled with the fourth-place Thunder and 10th-place Clippers separated by only four games in the loss column. Realistically, there are seven teams that could face Golden State in the first round, with each presenting a different challenge.

Things are a little more settled in the East, where the Bucks, Heat, Wizards or Pacers seem most likely to land in the seventh seed. Any of those teams could throw a scare into the Celtics, who will also be without Marcus Smart for about six more weeks after surgery to fix a torn ligament in his right thumb and Daniel Theis, who had season-ending surgery for a torn meniscus.

Our question for today is whether the Warriors or Celtics are now in danger of a first-round upset without their floor leaders. A lot depends on the eventual matchups, but do you see either team suffering an early playoff exit? Please jump into the comments section below and give us your feedback.

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Hoops Rumors Originals: 3/17/18 – 3/24/18

March 24th, 2018 at 3:57pm CST by clarkcrum

Every week, we here at Hoops Rumors strive to create interesting original content to complement our news feed. Here are the original segments and features from the past seven days:

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Eight RFAs Well Positioned For Long-Term Contracts

March 23rd, 2018 at 3:58pm CST by Luke Adams

Restricted free agency can be a minefield for NBA players, who have to work with their agents to determine whether it makes sense to negotiate directly with their own teams or to seek an offer sheet from another suitor.

For certain players, restricted free agency can be a route to a monster payday, since teams looking to pry away an RFA from another team often have to overpay to do it — just ask Tim Hardaway Jr., who almost certainly did better as a restricted free agent than he would have if he had been unrestricted last summer. Otto Porter, Tony Snell, Joe Ingles, Cristiano Felicio, and Mason Plumlee were among the other 2017 RFAs who secured lucrative long-term deals.

However, for some restricted free agents, seeking out that mega-deal can backfire. Nerlens Noel and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope reportedly turned down big four-year offers last offseason and then had to settle for one-year contracts instead. Alex Len and Nikola Mirotic were among the other RFAs who remained on the market for months before eventually signing modest deals.

While it’s not necessarily the end of the world if an RFA has to accept a one-year deal that sets him up for unrestricted free agency 12 months later, a lucrative long-term deal is generally preferred, since that sort of payday can increase a young player’s career earnings exponentially.

Heading into the 2018 free agent period, league-wide cap space isn’t expected to be as abundant as it has been over the past couple years, but there are still a number of restricted free agents who appear well positioned to secure big contracts. Here are eight of them:

  1. Clint Capela, C (Rockets): Capela may not have the dynamic sort of skill set that some of the NBA’s best big men possess, but he does exactly what the Rockets need him to — finish at the basket (.651 FG%), grab rebounds (10.9 RPG), and protect the rim (1.8 BPG). Barring a major surprise, I’d expect Houston to go well into tax territory to ensure that he and Chris Paul both get lucrative new deals this summer.
  2. Aaron Gordon, PF (Magic): After opening the season with a red-hot shooting stretch (.595 3PT% in his first 10 games), Gordon has posted more pedestrian shooting numbers since then (.299 3PT% in his last 39 games). The former fourth overall pick becomes an extremely dangerous offensive weapon when his three-pointer is working, but even without it, he makes for an intriguing free agent option. Gordon is still just 22 years old, and coming off a career year, he’s a good bet to land a big offer sheet from a team with cap room if the Magic drag their feet in negotiations.
  3. Julius Randle, F/C (Lakers): With Larry Nance Jr. sent to Cleveland and Kyle Kuzma unable to sustain his hot start all season long, Randle has been the Lakers‘ most impressive big man for the last three months. Since entering the starting lineup on December 29, the former Kentucky standout has averaged 19.1 PPG, 9.3 RPG, and 3.2 APG, making a case for a spot on the Lakers’ long-term plans even if the team is able to land a top outside free agent or two this summer. The Mavericks have been cited most frequently as a potential suitor for Randle if he seeks out an offer sheet.
  4. Zach LaVine, G (Bulls): Although injuries have prevented LaVine from taking another step forward this season, that’s unlikely to significantly impact his free agent value. The Bulls traded for LaVine last offseason knowing that a pricey new deal was on the horizon, and there has been no indication that the team has wavered on the idea of locking him up to a long-term pact.
  5. Jabari Parker, F (Bucks): Had Parker stayed healthy during his first four NBA seasons, he may already have a maximum salary extension secured. Instead, two ACL injuries have created uncertainty about what his next contract will look like. The former No. 2 overall pick reportedly passed on an offer last fall that would have paid him $18MM annually, and while he may not do better than that on the open market, his market shouldn’t crater. Parker already has a 20+ PPG season under his belt, and has put up career-best shooting numbers since returning from his latest ACL tear — his scoring potential will be tantalizing enough for a team with cap flexibility to take a shot on him if the Bucks don’t re-sign him right away.
  6. Jusuf Nurkic, C (Trail Blazers): Nurkic has been somewhat inconsistent this season, particularly on offense, but the Trail Blazers‘ defense continues to perform better and commit fewer fouls when he’s on the court, as ESPN’s Zach Lowe wrote this week. A 23-year-old center capable of anchoring a defense for a top-six team in the NBA is a rarity — that makes him a good bet to do well for himself in free agency.
  7. Marcus Smart, G (Celtics): Like Nurkic, Smart isn’t necessarily a reliable go-to option on offense, but his defensive ability makes him a valuable rotation piece. According to Basketball-Reference’s on/off-court stats, the Celtics allow about five fewer points per 100 possessions and force more turnovers when Smart is on the floor. While his shooting numbers (.367/.301/.729) leave something to be desired, the 24-year-old should at least be in line for an Andre Roberson-type contract (three years, $30MM).
  8. Fred VanVleet, G (Raptors): The only player on this list who wasn’t a first-round pick, VanVleet actually wasn’t drafted at all, joining the Raptors as a rookie free agent in 2016. He has developed into a solid backup point guard this season, averaging 11.0 PPG and 3.5 APG with a .450/.432/.867 shooting line since the start of 2018. His success creates an interesting predicament for the Raptors, who project to be a taxpayer in 2018/19, and could have to contend with a rival suitor back-loading an offer sheet for VanVleet via the Arenas provision. Toronto may ultimately need to trade another expensive contract if they want to retain VanVleet without committing to a huge tax bill.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Damion Lee’s Resilience Paid Off With NBA Opportunity

March 22nd, 2018 at 12:40pm CST by marksuleymanov

Damion Lee has twice suffered an injury that is known to shorten – or even end – careers.

While at Drexel University, Lee missed most of his junior season after tearing the anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) in his right knee in December 2013. Just 16 games into his professional career in January 2017, Lee tore the ACL in his left knee and was released by the G League’s Maine Red Claws.

Successfully returning from one ACL tear is difficult enough, as the recovery process can last upwards of one year – Lee had to endure that process twice. Despite the long odds, Lee said he was never deterred from his goal of playing in the NBA.

“Retirement has never crossed my mind,” Lee said in an interview with Hoops Rumors via email earlier this month. “After the second injury in 2016, it actually made me stronger and motivated me, because I knew that I have returned from the same injury.  My belief during the entire rehab process was that I could return to the court the second time around stronger than ever.”

Lee, 25, said his first ACL injury was the more challenging of the two tears. Lee’s first bout with the injury included a meniscus tear, which kept him off his feet for two months. The second injury was a partial tear of the ACL, which enabled Lee to do weight-bearing exercises the day after surgery and be off crutches in two weeks.

“The second time I tore my ACL it was a freak accident,” Lee said. “I actually thought it was a meniscus injury. I received an MRI the following morning, and the doctors told me it was partially torn; there are two bundles (of ligaments), and only one bundle was torn. I sort of knew what to expect from the recovery process that time around, so I attacked the recovery process better because I had expectations on how to approach it.”

Lee was rewarded for his persistence last week when the Hawks signed the combo guard to a 10-day contract. It was the payoff to a successful G League campaign in which Lee averaged 15.8 PPG, 4.9 RPG and 2.6 APG in 38 games with the Santa Cruz Warriors.

Four games into his NBA career, Lee has shown flashes of the skills that earned him a look in Atlanta.

Lee recorded 13 points and 14 points in his first two contests, becoming the first Hawks rookie to score double-digit points in his first two games since Paul Graham in 1992, per Chris Vivlamore of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (Twitter link). On Tuesday, he played 32 minutes against the Jazz in his first career start.

Lee said he made it a point to not let his past injuries impact his ability to contribute to his team.

“My playing style actually hasn’t changed at all. I’ve always been a land-loving, slashing, high basketball IQ player since I started playing the game,” Lee said. “I may not be the flashiest, but I try to be the most efficient, effective player I can be. I try to do the little things on the court that contribute to the success of my team.”

That mentality was noticed by Hawks head coach Mike Budenholzer, who spoke highly of Lee after his second NBA appearance in a 129-117 loss to the Hornets.

“There’s a confidence. He has the ability to shoot the 3 but also slashing behind shifts,” Budenholzer said, per the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. “Just a good feel for the game. Sticking his nose in there on rebounds and loose balls. Great first impression for him this week.”

The Hawks have brought in several guards on 10-day contracts recently, including Antonius Cleveland and Jaylen Morris, who have both since signed multiyear deals with the team. Atlanta now has 14 players on guaranteed contracts, with Lee’s 10-day deal – which is set to expire – occupying the 15th and final spot on the roster.

While it remains to be seen if the Hawks will sign him to a second 10-day contract, Lee said his long journey to the NBA has taught him to persevere.

“Tearing an ACL is devastating, but the reality is that everyone in life experiences devastating and tragic events,” Lee said. “One thing that I took away from going through these injuries is a confidence that one day I will return to the court and play this game, and it will be a safe haven for me.”

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Community Shootaround: Nuggets’ Short-, Long-Term Outlook

March 21st, 2018 at 3:15pm CST by Luke Adams

The Nuggets have played reasonably well since the start of February, posting a 12-8 record in their last 20 contests. However, Denver’s spot in the Western Conference standings has slipped since then, as the team now finds itself in the No. 9 seed. While the Nuggets are still within three games of four Western playoff teams, they trail the eighth-place Jazz by two full games, and face an uphill battle for a postseason berth.

In addition to having to play catch-up, the Nuggets also have one of the most difficult remaining schedules in the NBA, per Tankathon.com. After facing the Bulls on Wednesday night, the Nuggets will have 10 more games on their schedule, including six on the road — that stretch includes nine games vs. playoff teams and one in L.A. vs. the Clippers, who are right on Denver’s heels for the No. 9 seed.

There are other Western contenders with difficult schedules going forward. The remaining slates for the Thunder, Spurs, Pelicans, Clippers, and Jazz also rank among the 10 toughest in the league, according to Tankathon. Still, while Denver’s playoff hopes remain alive for now, that could change quickly. With a stretch of road games in Washington, Philadelphia, Toronto, and Oklahoma City on tap in the next nine days, the Nuggets’ shot at the postseason could be on life support by the end of the month. FiveThirtyEight’s playoffs odds already only give Denver a 12% chance to make it.

Although the Nuggets didn’t enter the season expected to be a title contender, they were a popular pick to make big strides after adding Paul Millsap in free agency. Denver hadn’t won more than 40 games or made the playoffs for four seasons, but this was the year that was expected to change. Instead, Millsap has appeared in just 27 games due to a wrist injury, and the Nuggets are on the verge of a fifth straight lottery appearance.

The Nuggets have posted a respectable 38-33 record so far, and if Millsap had stayed healthy, they may have added a few more wins to that total. But missing the playoffs would be a disappointing outcome, and could kickstart a discussion about the job security of Michael Malone, who is in his third year as Denver’s head coach.

A lottery appearance would also make for an even more interesting offseason for the Nuggets, who don’t have the cap flexibility to make another splash in free agency like they did with Millsap. If Wilson Chandler and Darrell Arthur pick up their player options for 2018/19, the Nuggets will have about $106MM in guaranteed money on their cap for next season, and that’s without considering a possible raise for Nikola Jokic.

The Nuggets will have to either make Jokic a restricted free agent this summer and give him a long-term deal, or exercise his inexpensive team option, which would put him on track for unrestricted free agency in 2019 and would increase the risk of him leaving Denver. If Jokic gets a new contract this summer, the Nuggets may end up in tax territory without making any real changes to this year’s squad.

It’s not an ideal situation for the Nuggets, who will need a late-season run to salvage their playoff chances for this spring, and will face an offseason of tough decisions whether or not they make the postseason.

What do you think? Can the Nuggets still make the playoffs this year? Will Malone be back if they don’t? What moves could they make this offseason to improve their long-term outlook?

Jump into the comment section below to share your thoughts!

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