Community Shootaround: Kyle Lowry And The Sixers
Kyle Lowry didn’t officially announce until this week that he would be turning down his 2017/18 player option in order to sign a new, longer-term – and more lucrative – contract. However, the decision had long been expected, and much of the speculation on Lowry’s potential destination in recent months has centered on the idea of a homecoming.
While the Raptors, who can offer more years and more dollars than any other suitor, are still considered the favorites to sign Lowry this summer, the Sixers will have plenty of cap room at their disposal and don’t necessarily have a long-term solution at point guard. Throw in the fact that Lowry is a Philadelphia native, and that the Sixers are being run by former Raptors GM Bryan Colangelo, and it’s easy to connect the dots.
Keith Pompey of The Philadelphia Inquirer made the case today for a union between the Sixers and Lowry, and Pompey’s report isn’t based entirely on speculation. The Inquirer reporter cited sources who have suggested that Lowry has been interested in playing for his hometown team “for some time.” Similarly, sources “have always said” that the Sixers intend to make Lowry a competitive contract offer this summer, according to Pompey.
While there’s a compelling case in favor of the Sixers seriously pursuing Lowry, there’s also plenty of reason to believe it won’t happen. Besides the fact that the Raptors head into free agency with the upper hand in negotiations, the Sixers and Lowry may not be looking for the same things this offseason, as Marcus Hayes of The Philadelphia Daily News argued this week.
While the Sixers haven’t found a long-term solution at point guard, they may have one on the roster already, as the team has announced its intentions to try No. 1 overall pick Ben Simmons at that position this summer and fall. If Simmons can handle running the point and is better suited to that spot than a forward role, it may not make sense to bring in Lowry on a long-term deal.
Meanwhile, from Lowry’s perspective, the Sixers may be a little further from contention than he’d like. The All-Star point guard would certainly help Philadelphia become a legit playoff contender, particularly if Simmons, Joel Embiid, and Dario Saric are all healthy next season. But Lowry said in his exit interview this week that getting a championship ring is his top priority — Philadelphia still looks multiple years away from developing into a team of that caliber.
What do you think? If the Raptors and Lowry can’t work something out, would Philadelphia make sense as a landing spot, or is the fit not quite right? If not the Raptors or the Sixers, which team do you think signs Lowry this summer?
Jump into the comments section below to share your thoughts!
Rookie Scale Salaries For 2017 First-Round Picks
The 2017 NBA draft is about a month and a half away, and once teams make those picks, they’ll have to account for how to fit their newly-drafted rookies into their salary cap for next season. Even before teams officially sign their first-round picks, those players will count against their cap, eating into the cap room available this summer.
In every NBA league year, rookie scale amounts are assigned to each first-round slot, from No. 1 through No. 30. Teams can sign their first-rounders to as little as 80% of that rookie scale amount, or up to 120% of that figure. While that rule affords teams some flexibility, first-rounders virtually always sign contracts worth 120% of their rookie scale amount.
Under the previous Collective Bargaining Agreement, cap holds for first-round picks counted for 100% of their rookie scale amount, so teams would often wait a little longer to officially sign their rookies to contracts in order to maximize their available cap room. However, because 120% contracts are the norm, the new CBA increases those cap holds for first-round picks to 120%, slightly reducing teams’ cap flexibility.
For instance, in 2017/18, the rookie scale amount for the No. 1 overall pick is $5,855,200. Under the previous CBA, that figure would have represented the player’s cap hold. Under the new CBA, the cap hold for the No. 1 pick will be $7,026,240 — 120% of the rookie scale amount, and his probable salary.
With the value of rookie contracts set to increase by 45% within the next three years, salaries are on the rise for 2017 draftees. In 2016, 120% of the rookie scale amount for the top pick worked out to about $5.9MM in year one, with raises up to $8.11MM by year four. For 2017’s No. 1 overall pick, year one will be worth $7.03MM, and year four will get all the way up to $12.29MM.
Listed below are the rookie scale amounts for 2017 draftees. Rookie scale contracts are guaranteed for the first two years, with team options on the third and fourth years.
Rookie scale amounts (100%):
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Probable salaries for 2017 first-rounders (120% of rookie scale):
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2017 Offseason Salary Cap Digest: Toronto Raptors
Having acquired Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker at the trade deadline, the Raptors looked well-equipped to make a run in the Eastern Conference playoffs and perhaps even challenge the Cavaliers, a year after falling to Cleveland in the Eastern Finals. However, the Raps got all they could handle from the Bucks in the first round, then were thoroughly dominated by the Cavs in a second-round sweep. With a handful of key players – including Ibaka, Tucker, and All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry – eligible for free agency, a “culture reset” may be on tap for the franchise.
Here’s where things currently stand for the Raptors financially, as we continue our Offseason Salary Cap Digest series for 2017:
Guaranteed Salary
- DeMar DeRozan ($27,739,975)
- Jonas Valanciunas ($15,460,675)
- DeMarre Carroll ($14,800,000)
- Cory Joseph ($7,630,000)
- Lucas Nogueira ($2,947,305)
- Jakob Poeltl ($2,825,640)
- Bruno Caboclo ($2,451,225)
- Delon Wright ($1,645,200)
- Pascal Siakam ($1,312,611)
- Total: $76,812,631
Player Options
- Kyle Lowry ($12,000,000)
- Total: $12,000,000
Team Options
- None
Non-Guaranteed Salary
- Norman Powell ($1,471,382)1
- Fred VanVleet ($1,312,611)2
- Total: $2,783,993
Restricted Free Agents
- None
Cap Holds
- Serge Ibaka ($18,375,000)
- Kyle Lowry ($18,000,000) — If player option is declined
- Patrick Patterson ($11,495,000)
- P.J. Tucker ($10,070,000)
- No. 23 overall pick ($1,645,200)
- Total: $59,585,200
Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000
Maximum Cap Room: $20,910,939
- With nine players on guaranteed salaries and a cap hold for a first-round pick, the Raptors could add two cap charges for empty roster spots for a total team salary of $80,089,061. However, that scenario would involve waiving Powell and VanVleet, not to mention renouncing Lowry, Ibaka, Patterson, and Tucker. That’s not realistic. It’s far more likely that Toronto stays over the cap and makes an effort to re-sign some of its own free agents, forgoing potential cap room.
Footnotes:
- Powell’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after June 29.
- VanVleet’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 20.
Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post.
Five Key Offseason Questions: Portland Trail Blazers
After a successful 2015/16 campaign that included a first-round playoff victory over the Clippers, the Trail Blazers kept their roster intact by retaining restricted free agents like Allen Crabbe, Meyers Leonard, and Maurice Harkless. However, those players didn’t take major steps forward in 2016/17, and the team’s outside free agent additions – Evan Turner and Festus Ezeli – failed to have the desired impact.
A mid-season trade for a first-round pick and Jusuf Nurkic, who averaged a double-double in his 20 games for Portland, was a slick move by president Neil Olshey and the front office, and helped the team earn a postseason spot. However, the Blazers were quickly dispatched by the top-seeded Warriors and will now head into the offseason with more guaranteed 2017/18 money on their books than any other NBA club.
Here are five questions facing the Blazers as they enter the offseason…
1. What moves can the Blazers to make to reduce their payroll?
As detailed below, the Blazers currently have more than $133MM in guaranteed salaries on their books for 2017/18, which is a staggering amount, considering the tax threshold projects to be about $121MM. Standing pat with a roster that is set to go deep into tax territory after earning a No. 8 seed probably isn’t a viable option for Olshey, so trades will have to be considered.
The most obvious trade candidates on the Blazers’ roster are guys like Crabbe and Turner, whose 2017/18 salaries total more than $36MM combined. But coming off mediocre seasons, those players aren’t exactly hot commodities right now, and their long-term contracts would be viewed as a burden by most teams. Players in the $7-10MM range like Harkless, Leonard, and Al-Farouq Aminu would likely be more movable, but won’t exactly inspire bidding wars either.
Complicating matters is the fact that the Blazers won’t be able to take on much salary in return in any hypothetical deal, assuming their goal is to cut costs. That would rule out many over-the-cap teams as trade partners, and after last summer’s league-wide spending spree, there aren’t nearly as many teams this summer projected to remain under the cap as their were in 2016.
Of course, the two most expensive players on the Blazers’ roster are also two of the players with the most trade value. That leads us to our second question…
2017 Offseason Salary Cap Digest: Utah Jazz
Viewed heading into the 2016/17 season as the Western lottery team most likely to make the jump into the playoffs, the Jazz delivered — and then some. Their 51-31 record was their best mark since 2009/10. Having battled injuries for much of the year, Utah has room to take another step forward next season, but the club will first have to navigate a difficult offseason, with key players like Gordon Hayward and George Hill potentially reaching free agency.
Here’s where things currently stand for the Jazz financially, as we continue our Offseason Salary Cap Digest series for 2017:
Guaranteed Salary
- Rudy Gobert ($21,224,719)
- Derrick Favors ($12,000,000)
- Alec Burks ($10,845,506)
- Joe Johnson ($10,505,000)
- Dante Exum ($4,992,385)
- Trey Lyles ($2,441,400)
- Rodney Hood ($2,386,864)
- Joel Bolomboy ($1,312,611)
- Total: $65,708,485
Player Options
- Gordon Hayward ($16,736,710)
- Total: $16,736,710
Team Options
- None
Non-Guaranteed Salary
- Boris Diaw ($7,500,000)1
- Raul Neto ($1,471,382)
- Total: $8,971,382
Restricted Free Agents
- Joe Ingles ($2,687,500 qualifying offer / $4,085,000 cap hold)
- Total: $4,085,000
Cap Holds
- Gordon Hayward ($24,109,710) — If player option is declined
- George Hill ($15,200,000)
- Shelvin Mack ($4,623,335)
- No. 24 overall pick ($1,579,440)
- Jeff Withey ($1,471,382)
- No. 30 overall pick ($1,394,520)
- Total: $48,378,387
Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000
Maximum Cap Room: $30,686,325
- With their eight guaranteed contracts, cap holds for two first-round picks, and a pair of cap charges for empty roster spots, the Jazz would have a team salary of $70,313,675. However, in that scenario, Utah would have to renounce Hayward, Hill, Ingles, and the rest of their free agents, in addition to waiving Diaw and Neto. So that’s probably a scenario the club will try to avoid. Re-signing Hayward and/or Hill would eat up most or all of Utah’s potential cap room.
Footnotes:
- Diaw’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 15.
Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post.
Community Shootaround: Western Finals
Thus far, the playoffs have been full steam ahead for the Warriors and Cavaliers. A third straight clash in the NBA Finals seems almost inevitable, given that neither has lost a game yet this postseason.
The Eastern Conference semifinal matchup between the Wizards and Celtics has been entertaining, particularly the point guard showdown between John Wall and Isaiah Thomas. Regardless of which club prevails in that series, it’s tough to see either one taking more than one or two games from the Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals. LeBron James and Kyrie Irving are playing at peak efficiency, with only the star-laden Warriors seemingly capable of slowing them down.
It’s safe to say Golden State will take care of business and dispose of the Jazz as early as this evening. The Warriors’ opponent in the next round is still very much in doubt. The Rockets-Spurs series has lived up to its billing, with each team showed it’s capable of dominating the other. The Rockets crushed the Spurs in San Antonio during Game 1 with their high-powered attack. The Spurs turned up the defensive intensity and cruised to victory in Game 2, then posted another double-digit win in Game 3 at Houston. The Rockets responded in Game 4 on Sunday with 19 made 3-pointers and buried the Spurs.
It could very take seven games to decide that series, and while either would be a major underdog against Golden State, a Western Conference Finals upset is not as far-fetched as Cleveland failing to represent the East in the Finals. The Warriors would have to face another team with plenty of firepower to match their offensive weapons if the Rockets outlast the Spurs. Golden State would have to deal with San Antonio’s teamwork, experience and savvy if the Spurs get through the conference semifinals.
That brings us to our Community Shootaround question of the day: Which team would give the Warriors a tougher battle in the conference finals — the Rockets or Spurs? And why?
Please take the comments section and share your thoughts on this subject. We look forward to what you have to say.
Why NBA Sign-And-Trades Are Rare
With the 2016/17 season officially coming to an end for most teams, the focus in many NBA cities has shifted to the upcoming offseason, with big-name free agents dominating discussion. Most recently, the Cavaliers’ series win over the Raptors generated far less speculation about how Cleveland will match up with its possible opponents in the Eastern Conference Finals than it did about the futures of Kyle Lowry, Serge Ibaka, and the Raptors.
Free agent speculation often leads to suggestions of sign-and-trade deals, particularly in cases like the Raptors’ or Clippers’. Neither team has been able to make it over the hump and seriously contend for a title in recent years, but both clubs have All-Star players eligible for free agency this summer. It may be time to shake things up in Toronto and Los Angeles, but neither the Raps nor the Clippers want to lose guys like Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, or Lowry for nothing. So could a sign-and-trade be on the table for either team?
While sign-and-trade deals may make sense in theory, the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement makes them tricky in reality, particularly for elite free agents. Here are a few reasons why:
1. Players can only get true maximum salary contracts if they remain with their previous team.
Under the old CBA, a sign-and-trade deal allowed a player to sign for the true max – in terms of total years and annual raises – even though he wasn’t remaining with his previous team. That’s no longer the case.
If, for instance, the Raptors were to sign-and-trade Lowry to another club, he wouldn’t be able to receive the five years or 8% annual raises that he would if he re-signed with Toronto — he’d still be eligible for the same starting salary, but would be limited to four years and 5% raises, reducing the overall value of his max contract by about $50MM.
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Community Shootaround: Raptors’ Free Agents
As the Cavaliers attempt to complete a sweep of the Raptors in Toronto, the Raps could be experiencing their final moments with Kyle Lowry, P.J. Tucker, Serge Ibaka, and Patrick Patterson playing north of the border.
Lowry, in particular, likely won’t go out on a high note, having missed Games 3 and 4 due to a left ankle sprain. The 31-year-old was also sidelined for 18 games due to right wrist surgery toward the end of the 2016/17 campaign, so he enters free agency as a dynamic guard who is north of 30, coming off an injury-riddled season.
Still, Lowry has averaged 18.2 PPG, 6.8 APG, and 4.7 RPG over the past five seasons in Toronto, racking up three consecutive All-Star appearances. Also, the Villanova University product set career-highs in PPG (22.4) and RPG (4.8) while adding solid totals in APG (7.0) through 60 games this season. Premium facilitators are coveted in today’s game and Lowry has been one of the game’s best at his position.
After spending his first seven seasons with the Thunder, Ibaka split 2016/17 between the Magic and Raptors. Ibaka is regarded as one of the NBA’s premier defenders and while his blocks have seen a drop, his RPG (6.8) were identical to last season and he posted his best PPG total (14.8) since 2013/14. Still just 27 years old without a history of serious injuries, the versatile swingman will be plenty popular on the market.
Much like Ibaka, Tucker was a trade deadline acquisition, but was acquired more for his defensive intensity and rebounding. With 11 professional seasons under his belt at 32 years old, Tucker figures to draw interest as a solid reserve, a role he has excelled in since returning to the NBA in 2012/13. In 81 games between the Suns and Raptors this season, Tucker posted totals of 6.7 PPG and 5.8 RPG.
Finally, Patterson has — just like Tucker — been a solid role player in recent seasons, the last three-and-a-half as a member of the Raptors. This season, Patterson averaged 6.8 PPG and 4.5 RPG through 65 games (eight starts). At 28, he still has relative youth on his side and will have no shortage of suitors.
With four departures there are major questions to be answered: Will the Raptors let Lowry walk and lose All-Star level production from a position of strength? Is Ibaka worth a long-term investment? Also, will Toronto be willing to pay above average salaries to career reserves who contribute solid, yet unspectacular, numbers?
Share your thoughts on the Raptors’ offseason outlook in the comments section below!
Weekly Mailbag: 5/1/17 – 5/7/17
We have an opportunity for you to hit us up with your questions in this, our weekly mailbag feature. Have a question regarding player movement, the salary cap or the NBA draft? Drop us a line at HoopsRumorsMailbag@Gmail.com. Here are this week’s inquiries:
Assuming the Raptors lose today, what coaching candidates would fit in Canada if Dwane Casey is cut loose? — Darrell Samuels, via Twitter
NBA coaches are on a historically long run with no one getting fired, and Casey doesn’t deserve to be the one to break it. He is 261-215 since taking over in Toronto six years ago and had three straight Atlantic Division titles before this season. The problem is that he can’t get past the Cavaliers in the playoffs, but it’s not his fault that the other guys have LeBron James and he doesn’t. If the Raptors decide to axe Casey, the obvious candidate is waiting in the D-League. Jerry Stackhouse just led Toronto 905 to the league title and seems ready for opportunity to be an NBA head coach. A former assistant with the Raptors, Stackhouse was named D-League Coach of the Year this season and is probably viewed by the organization as Casey’s eventual replacement, whether that’s right away or somewhere down the road.
Who will be the “under the radar” free agent getting the most attention this summer? — Grizz Tony, via Twitter
Joe Ingles is a name that a lot of NBA fans may not know, but his contributions helped the Jazz reach the final four in the West. The third-year small forward averaged 7.1 points and 3.2 rebounds this season, but those numbers don’t tell the full story. He shot 44% from 3-point range and is a rugged defender who isn’t afraid to take on the toughest challenges. Ingles will be a restricted free agent, and although Utah would like to keep him, the organization will have other priorities with Gordon Hayward and George Hill both on the market. Toronto’s Patrick Patterson and P.J. Tucker could also be considered “under the radar,” along with Cavaliers guard Deron Williams, Heat center Willie Reed and Clippers forward Marreese Speights.
If the Jazz get swept in the second round, what are the chances that Gordon Hayward leaves in free agency? — Todd L., via Twitter
Utah will have a max offer ready for Hayward any time he wants to sign it, but there will be competitors lurking once he hits the open market. The Heat and Pacers are rumored to have interest in the All-Star small forward, and the Celtics seem like a natural fit with Hayward’s connections to Brad Stevens, his college coach. However, the Jazz have the advantage of being able to offer more money and more years, and Hayward seems happy to be part of the team they’re building in Utah. Look for him to re-sign, and probably very early.