Hoops Rumors Originals

Community Shootaround: Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Future

Through the first two games of the Bucks‘ first-round series vs. Indiana, Most Valuable Player finalist Giannis Antetokounmpo has put up absolutely massive numbers, including averages of 35.0 points, 15.0 rebounds, and 4.0 assists per night on 65.1% shooting.

But he has gotten little help from his teammates in either game. Milwaukee has been outscored by 29 points when Antetokounmpo is on the floor and dropped both contests in Indiana. The Bucks are now heading back home facing a 2-0 deficit in the series.

In both 2023 and 2024, the Bucks were eliminated in the first round of the postseason without Antetokounmpo, who was unable to suit up due to injuries. With their star forward healthy and available this spring, the Bucks had higher expectations and haven’t given up on achieving them — the series is hardly out of reach if Milwaukee can defend its home court in Games 3 and 4.

However, the Pacers have looked like the better team so far, overwhelming the Bucks with their fast-paced offensive attack and creating a difficult hole for Milwaukee to climb out of.

Point guard Damian Lillard has only just returned from a month-long absence due to a blood clot in his calf and doesn’t look like he’s in peak form, while trade-deadline acquisition Kyle Kuzma hasn’t been particularly effective through two games, scoring just 12 total points on 5-of-15 shooting and grabbing three rebounds in 52 minutes of action.

As ESPN’s Brian Windhorst noted on the latest episode of his Hoop Collective podcast (YouTube link), a third consecutive first-round exit would be a disaster for the Bucks, who posted their lowest regular season winning percentage (.585) since 2017/18, have been a taxpaying team for several years, and no longer have the assets to pursue major roster upgrades. It would also lead to serious scrutiny of Antetokounmpo’s future in Milwaukee.

“Giannis has been just awesome this season,” Windhorst said (hat tip to RealGM). “He has clearly understood that they’re challenged. And he has cut the BS out of his game and cut the fat out of his game and tried doing everything he can to carry this team, and they’re just not good enough. What is he supposed to do?

“This is the elephant in the room in the league right now. This team is losing tens of millions of dollars. They’re out all their draft picks. (Brook) Lopez and (Bobby) Portis are free agents.”

Windhorst’s ESPN colleague Tim MacMahon followed up by describing the Bucks’ future as “bleak” and suggesting that Antetokounmpo may have to decide soon whether he wants to be a player who spends his entire career with one franchise or if he wants to move to a situation where he’d have a better chance to compete for more titles while he’s still in his prime.

Even if the Bucks are eliminated by the Pacers in the coming days, that decision doesn’t necessarily need to be made this summer. Antetokounmpo remains under contract with the Bucks for at least two more years, with a player option on his contract for the 2027/28 season. And Windhorst stresses that there’s no indication the two-time MVP is looking for an exit ramp.

“From talking to people in and around Milwaukee, Giannis has given no indication throughout this entire season that he is not 100% focused on maximizing what the Bucks have,” Windhorst said. “This (speculation) is people in the league looking at the lay of the land, not anything that Giannis has said to anybody.”

Still, it’s not uncommon for situations like this one involving star players to reach a head well before the player reaches free agency. “This is what people in the league are talking about as they’re watching these series,” Windhorst added.

The Nets, armed with significant cap flexibility and a huge collection of extra first-round picks, have made no secret of the fact that they’re prepared to make a major push for Antetokounmpo if the Bucks are open to considering a trade — reports for the better part of a year have indicated he’s Brooklyn’s “Plan A.” But they’d have plenty of company if Giannis ever ends up on the trade block.

We want to know what you think. Can the Bucks come back and win this first-round series vs. the Pacers? If not, will this offseason represent a tipping point for Antetokounmpo’s future or will he remain committed to Milwaukee going forward?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts on the outlook for Giannis.

2025 Pre-Lottery NBA Draft Order

The NBA conducted its draft tiebreakers on Monday, further cementing the draft order for 2025. While we’ll have to wait until the May 12 draft lottery to learn the exact order for this year’s event, we now know what most of the 59 selections look like.

Listed below is the pre-lottery 2025 NBA draft order. Each lottery team’s chances of landing the No. 1 overall pick is noted in parentheses. We’ve also included notes for picks whose status remains up in the air depending on the lottery results.

[RELATED: 2025 NBA Draft Lottery Odds]

The second-round draft order for teams with identical regular season records is the inverse of their first-round order. This rule applies even if one club made the playoffs and one didn’t.

We’ll provided an updated list after the May 12 lottery, once the official draft order is set, but here’s the tentative 2025 NBA draft order:


First round

  1. Utah Jazz (14.0%)
  2. Washington Wizards (14.0%)
  3. Charlotte Hornets (14.0%)
  4. New Orleans Pelicans (12.5%)
  5. Philadelphia 76ers (10.5%)
    • Note: The Thunder will receive this pick if it falls out of the top six (36.0%).
  6. Brooklyn Nets (9.0%)
  7. Toronto Raptors (7.5%)
  8. San Antonio Spurs (6.0%)
  9. Houston Rockets (from Suns) (3.8%)
  10. Portland Trail Blazers (3.7%)
  11. Dallas Mavericks (1.8%)
  12. Chicago Bulls (1.7%)
  13. Atlanta Hawks (from Kings) (0.8%)
    • Note: The Kings will retain this pick if it moves into the top four (3.8%).
  14. San Antonio Spurs (from Hawks) (0.7%)
  15. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Heat)
  16. Orlando Magic
  17. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Pistons)
  18. Washington Wizards (from Grizzlies)
  19. Brooklyn Nets (from Bucks)
  20. Miami Heat (from Warriors)
  21. Utah Jazz (from Timberwolves)
  22. Atlanta Hawks (from Lakers)
  23. Indiana Pacers
  24. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Clippers)
  25. Orlando Magic (from Nuggets)
  26. Brooklyn Nets (from Knicks)
  27. Brooklyn Nets (from Rockets)
  28. Boston Celtics
  29. Phoenix Suns (from Cavaliers)
  30. Los Angeles Clippers (from Thunder)

Second round

  1. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Jazz)
  2. Boston Celtics (from Wizards)
  3. Charlotte Hornets
  4. Charlotte Hornets (from Pelicans)
  5. Philadelphia 76ers
  6. Brooklyn Nets
  7. Detroit Pistons (from Raptors)
  8. San Antonio Spurs
  9. Toronto Raptors (from Trail Blazers)
    • Note: This pick would move to No. 40 if the Trail Blazers end up with a higher first-round pick than the Rockets (from Suns) via the lottery.
  10. Washington Wizards (from Suns)
    • Note: This pick would move to No. 39 if the Trail Blazers end up with a higher first-round pick than the Rockets (from Suns) via the lottery.
  11. Golden State Warriors (from Heat)
  12. Sacramento Kings (from Bulls)
    • Note: This pick would move to No. 43 if the Bulls end up with a higher first-round pick than the Mavericks via the lottery.
  13. Utah Jazz (from Mavericks)
    • Note: This pick would move to No. 42 if the Bulls end up with a higher first-round pick than the Mavericks via the lottery.
  14. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Hawks)
    • Note: This pick would move to No. 45 if the Spurs (from Hawks) end up with a higher first-round pick than the Hawks (from Kings) via the lottery.
  15. Chicago Bulls (from Kings)
    • Note: This pick would move to No. 44 if the Spurs (from Hawks) end up with a higher first-round pick than the Hawks (from Kings) via the lottery.
  16. Orlando Magic
  17. Milwaukee Bucks (from Pistons)
  18. Memphis Grizzlies (from Warriors)
  19. Cleveland Cavaliers (from Bucks)
  20. New York Knicks (from Grizzlies)
  21. Los Angeles Clippers (from Timberwolves)
  22. Phoenix Suns (from Nuggets)
  23. Utah Jazz (from Clippers)
  24. Indiana Pacers
  25. Los Angeles Lakers
  26. New York Knicks
  27. Memphis Grizzlies (from Rockets)
  28. Orlando Magic (from Celtics)
  29. Cleveland Cavaliers
  30. Houston Rockets (from Thunder)

2025 NBA Draft Lottery Odds

The NBA will be using its revamped lottery system for the seventh time this year. The format, instituted in 2019, smoothed out the odds for top picks, reducing the league’s worst team’s chance of getting the No. 1 selection from 25.0% to 14.0%.

[RELATED: Hoops Rumors Glossary: NBA Draft Lottery]

The changes had an immediate impact in 2019, when the Pelicans and Grizzlies were tied for the seventh-best lottery odds, but jumped up to No. 1 and 2, respectively, allowing them to land Zion Williamson and Ja Morant. There were fewer major surprises in subsequent years until 2024, when the Hawks entered lottery night with the 10th-best odds and came away with the first overall pick.

This year’s draft lottery will take place on Monday, May 12.

With the help of data from Tankathon.com – which is worth checking out for all sorts of draft-related info – the draft lottery odds for 2025 are listed in the chart below.

The numbers in the chart indicate percentages, so the Jazz‘s pick, for instance, has a 14% chance of becoming the No. 1 selection and a 47.9% chance of ending up at No. 5. If a team’s odds are listed as >0, that percentage is below 0.1%. Odds are rounded to the nearest decimal place.

Here’s the full chart:

Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
UTH 14 13.4 12.7 12 47.9
WSH 14 13.4 12.7 12 27.8 20
CHA 14 13.4 12.7 12 14.8 26 7
NOP 12.5 12.2 11.9 11.5 7.2 25.7 16.8 2.2
PHI* 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.5 2.2 19.6 26.7 8.7 0.6
BKN 9 9.2 9.4 9.6 8.6 29.7 20.6 3.7 0.2
TOR 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.5 19.7 34.1 12.9 1.3 >0
SAS 6 6.3 6.7 7.2 34.5 32.0 6.8 0.4 >0
PHX* 3.8 4.1 4.5 4.9 50.7 28.3 3.5 0.1 >0
POR 3.7 4 4.4 4.8 63.4 18.5 1.2 >0 >0
DAL 1.8 2 2.2 2.5 77.6 13.5 0.5 >0
CHI 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.4 85.2 6.6 0.1
SAC* 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 92.9 3.3
ATL* 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 96.6

Notes:

  • The Sixers‘ pick will be sent to the Thunder if it lands outside the top six.
  • The Suns‘ pick will be sent to the Nets.
  • The Kings‘ pick will be sent to the Hawks if it lands outside the top 12.
  • The Hawks‘ pick will be sent to the Spurs.

The full pre-lottery 2025 draft order can be found right here.

2025 NBA Draft Early Entrants List

Early entrants who wish to declare for the 2025 NBA draft have until the end of the day on Saturday, April 26 to make that decision official.

Players who declare for the draft this year will have to withdraw by the end of the day on May 28 if they wish to retain their NCAA eligibility. The NBA’s withdrawal deadline, which is more relevant for international prospects, is on June 15 at 5:00 pm Eastern time. The 2025 draft will take place on June 25 and 26.

[RELATED: 2025 NBA Draft Dates, Deadlines To Watch]

Typically, the initial number of early entrants declaring for the draft is far bigger than the final total will be, since many players “test the draft waters” to get feedback on their stock before ultimately deciding to withdraw. Additionally, many players who are technically seniors have been on the early entrant list in recent years after being granted an extra year of NCAA eligibility in 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

However, the implementation of a rule allowing student athletes to be compensated for their name, image, and likeness (NIL) has resulted in the number of early entrants trending downward in recent years. In 2024, a total 201 prospects initially declared as early entrants, with 77 of those players ultimately keeping their names in the draft and going pro. Those figures were down from 242 and 92, respectively, in 2023, and 283 and 149 in 2022.

We’ll use this post to keep track of reports and announcements on early entrant prospects and their decisions. We’ll archive them all here in a running list, which will be accessible anytime under “Hoops Rumors Features” on the right sidebar of our desktop site, or in the “Features” page found in our mobile menu.

The players below are listed in alphabetical order. If you have any corrections or omissions, please contact us.

Last updated 6-17-25 (12:22 pm CT)


College Underclassmen

Remaining in draft:

  1. Ace Bailey, G/F, Rutgers (freshman)
  2. Carter Bryant, F, Arizona (freshman)
  3. Egor Demin, G, BYU (freshman)
  4. V.J. Edgecombe, G, Baylor (freshman)
  5. Jeremiah Fears, G, Oklahoma (freshman)
  6. Cooper Flagg, F, Duke (freshman)
  7. Rasheer Fleming, F/C, St. Joseph’s (junior)
  8. Dylan Harper, G, Rutgers (freshman)
  9. Kasparas Jakucionis, G, Illinois (freshman)
  10. Tre Johnson, G, Texas (freshman)
  11. Kon Knueppel, G/F, Duke (freshman)
  12. RJ Luis, F, St. John’s (junior)
  13. Khaman Maluach, C, Duke (freshman)
  14. Liam McNeeley, F, UConn (freshman)
  15. Collin Murray-Boyles, F, South Carolina (sophomore)
  16. Asa Newell, F, Georgia (freshman)
  17. Yanic Konan Niederhauser, F/C, Penn State (junior)
  18. Drake Powell, G/F, UNC (freshman)
  19. Tyrese Proctor, G, Duke (junior)
  20. Derik Queen, C, Maryland (freshman)
  21. Jase Richardson, G, Michigan State (freshman)
  22. Will Riley, F, Illinois (freshman)
  23. Thomas Sorber, F/C, Georgetown (freshman)
  24. Adou Thiero, F, Arkansas (junior)
  25. Danny Wolf, F/C, Michigan (junior)

Withdrew from draft after testing waters:

Note: Some of these players will also be transferring to new schools.

  1. John Blackwell, G, Wisconsin (sophomore)
  2. Jaden Bradley, G, Arizona (junior)
  3. Miles Byrd, G, San Diego State (sophomore)
  4. Rueben Chinyelu, C, Florida (sophomore)
  5. Alex Condon, F/C, Florida (sophomore)
  6. Tae Davis, F, Notre Dame (junior)
  7. Silas Demary, G, Georgia (sophomore)
  8. Jerry Deng, F, Florida State (sophomore)
  9. Treysen Eaglestaff, G, North Dakota (junior)
  10. Isaiah Evans, G/F, Duke (freshman)
  11. Elijah Fisher, G/F, Pacific (junior)
  12. Boogie Fland, G, Arkansas (freshman)
  13. PJ Haggerty, G, Memphis (sophomore)
  14. Chris Howell, G, UC San Diego (junior)
  15. Josh Hubbard, G, Mississippi State (sophomore)
  16. Karter Knox, F, Arkansas (freshman)
  17. Kobe Knox, G, South Florida (junior)
  18. Toibu Lawal, F, Virginia Tech (junior)
  19. Brenen Lorient, F, North Texas (junior)
  20. Jaland Lowe, G, Pittsburgh (sophomore)
  21. Ven-Allen Lubin, F, North Carolina (junior)
  22. Nick Martinelli, F, Northwestern (junior)
  23. Camron McDowell, G, Northwestern Oklahoma State (junior)
  24. Devin McGlockton, F, Vanderbilt (junior)
  25. Mackenzie Mgbako, F, Indiana (sophomore)
  26. Kebba Njie, F, Notre Dame (junior)
  27. AK Okereke, F, Cornell (junior)
  28. Otega Oweh, G, Kentucky (junior)
  29. Tahaad Pettiford, G, Auburn (freshman)
  30. Labaron Philon, G, Alabama (freshman)
  31. Devon Pryor, F, Texas (sophomore)
  32. Joson Sanon, G, Arizona State (freshman)
  33. Raysean Seamster, F, UT Arlington (junior)
  34. Bruce Thornton, G, Ohio State (junior)
  35. Milos Uzan, G, Houston (junior)
  36. Brandon Walker, F, Montana State (junior)
  37. Lamar Wilkerson, G, Sam Houston State (junior)
  38. Darrion Williams, F, Texas Tech (junior)
  39. Money Williams, G, Montana (sophomore)

College Seniors

Remaining in draft:

  1. Cedric Coward, F, Washington State
  2. Omar Rowe, G, Morehouse
  3. Jamir Watkins, G/F, Florida State

Withdrew from draft after testing waters:

Note: Some of these players will also be transferring to new schools.

  1. Chad Baker-Mazara, G/F, Auburn
  2. Quincy Ballard, C, Wichita State
  3. Nathan Bittle, C, Oregon
  4. Tayton Conerway, G, Troy
  5. Melvin Council Jr., G, St. Bonaventure
  6. Dominick Harris, G, UCLA
  7. Yaxel Lendeborg, F, UAB
  8. Jaron Pierre, G, Jacksonville State
  9. Malik Thomas, G, San Francisco

International players

Note: The country indicates where the player had been playing, not necessarily where he was born.

Remaining in draft:

  1. Izan Almansa, F/C, Australia (born 2005)
  2. Joan Beringer, C, Slovenia (born 2006)
  3. Mohamed Diawara, F, France (born 2005)
  4. Noa Essengue, F, Germany (born 2006)
  5. Hugo Gonzalez, F, Spain (born 2006)
  6. Bogoljub Markovic, F/C, Serbia (born 2005)
  7. Muodubem Muoneke, G, Spain (born 2003)
  8. Ousmane N’Diaye, F/C, Spain (born 2004)
  9. Eli Ndiaye, C, Spain (born 2004)
  10. Saliou Niang, F, Italy (born 2004)
  11. Noah Penda, F, France (born 2005)
  12. Ben Saraf, G, Germany (born 2006)
  13. Alex Toohey, F, Australia (born 2004)
  14. Nolan Traore, G, France (born 2006)
  15. Hansen Yang, C, China (born 2005)
  16. Rocco Zikarsky, C, Australia (born 2006)

Withdrew from draft after testing waters:

  1. Mohammad Amini, G/F, France (born 2005)
  2. Alec Anigbata, F, Germany (born 2004)
  3. Neoklis Avdalas, G/F, Greece (born 2006)
  4. Bassala Bagayoko, C, Spain (born 2006)
  5. Asim Djulovic, G/F, Serbia (born 2005)
  6. Mouhamed Faye, C, Italy (born 2005)
  7. Lazar Gacic, C, Serbia (born 2005)
  8. Ben Henshall, G/F, Australia (born 2004)
  9. Malique Lewis, F, Australia (born 2004)
  10. Mathias M’Madi, G, Spain (born 2005)
  11. Paul Mbiya, F/C, France (born 2005)
  12. Zaion Nebot, G, France (born 2004)
  13. Michael Ruzic, F, Spain (born 2006)
  14. David Torresani, G, Italy (born 2005)

Other players

Remaining in draft:

  1. Isaac Nogues, G, Rip City Remix (born 2004)
  2. Dink Pate, G/F, Mexico City Capitanes (born 2006)

Withdrew from draft after testing waters:

  1. Thierry Darlan, G, Delaware Blue Coats (born 2004)

Note: Information from Rookie Scale and HoopsHype was used in the creation of this post.

Poll: Who Should Win 2024/25 NBA Awards?

The NBA announced the 2024/25 finalists for its seven major awards on Sunday, revealing the top three vote-getters for Most Valuable Player, Defensive Player of the Year, Rookie of the Year, Most Improved Player, Sixth Man of the Year, Coach of the Year, and Clutch Player of the Year.

A few of these awards have felt like foregone conclusions for a while, but some other results could be genuine surprises.

Today though, we’re not focusing on which players will win the awards, but the ones you believe should win them. Select your winners for this year’s major NBA awards in the seven polls below, then head to the comment section to weigh in with your thoughts.

Our polls only include the three finalists in each category, but if you think someone else deserves to win one of these awards, be sure to use the comment section to “write in” that pick and explain your reasoning.


Most Valuable Player

Defensive Player of the Year

Rookie of the Year

Most Improved Player

Sixth Man of the Year

Coach of the Year

Clutch Player of the Year

Community Shootaround: First-Round Playoff Series

After a pair of off-days and three days of play-in games, the 2025 NBA postseason is set to begin in earnest on Saturday, with four series getting underway today and the other four to tip off on Sunday.

The first-round matchups are as follows, along with the date/time of each Game 1:

Eastern Conference

  • Cleveland Cavaliers (1) vs. Miami Heat (8): Sunday at 7:00 pm ET
  • Boston Celtics (2) vs. Orlando Magic (7): Sunday at 3:30 pm ET
  • New York Knicks (3) vs. Detroit Pistons (6): Saturday at 6:00 pm ET
  • Indiana Pacers (4) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (5): Saturday at 1:00 pm ET

Western Conference

  • Oklahoma City Thunder (1) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (8): Sunday at 1:00 pm ET
  • Houston Rockets (2) vs. Golden State Warriors (7): Sunday at 9:30 pm ET
  • Los Angeles Lakers (3) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (6): Saturday at 8:30 pm ET
  • Denver Nuggets (4) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (5): Saturday at 3:30 pm ET

In the view of oddsmakers, three of the eight first-round series are expected to be fairly one-sided. BetOnline.ag lists the Cavaliers (-4000), Celtics (-5000), and Thunder (-4000) as massive favorites to advance. The Knicks are also considered a good bet to get out of round one, having been listed as a -375 favorite over the Pistons.

The other four series are more interesting, with the higher seed not always viewed as the frontrunner. It’s the No. 7 Warriors (-170), for instance, who are favored over the No. 2 Rockets. The No. 3 Lakers (-190) and No. 4 Pacers (-160) have the edge in their respective series, but the No. 4 vs. 5 matchup in the West is considered virtually a toss-up, with the Clippers listed as narrow favorites (-120) over Denver (+100).

Ahead of a full slate of weekend playoff action, we want to know what you think.

Do you expect the Cavaliers, Celtics, or Thunder to stumble at all on their way to the second round?

Can the Rockets defend home court and their higher seed and knock off the veteran Warriors?

Who do you like between the Nuggets and Clippers in what’s considered the most evenly-matched first round series?

Are you anticipating any upsets in the other series and picking the Pistons, Bucks, and/or Timberwolves to advance to the conference semifinals?

Head to the comment section below to make your predictions and share your thoughts on the first round!

Post-Play-In Update On 2025 Draft Order, Lottery Standings

As we explained on Monday following the conclusion of the NBA’s 2024/25 regular season, the results of the play-in tournament helped move the lottery standings and the 2025 draft order one step closer to being officially set.

Here’s what we know now…


Lottery teams

Because No. 10 Miami made it through the play-in tournament and earned a playoff spot in the East, the lottery teams (and odds) are slightly different from the ones we projected on Monday.

The Magic and Heat claimed the East’s final two playoff spots and will face Boston and Cleveland, respectively, in round one of the postseason. The Warriors and Grizzlies locked up the Nos. 7 and 8 seeds in the West, lining up first-round dates with Houston and Oklahoma City, respectively.

As a result, the tentative lottery standings are as follows, per Tankathon:

Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
UTH 14 13.4 12.7 12 47.9
WSH 14 13.4 12.7 12 27.8 20
CHA 14 13.4 12.7 12 14.8 26 7
NOP 12.5 12.2 11.9 11.5 7.2 25.7 16.8 2.2
PHI* 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.5 2.2 19.6 26.7 8.7 0.6
BKN 9 9.2 9.4 9.6 8.6 29.7 20.6 3.7 0.2
TOR 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.5 19.7 34.1 12.9 1.3 >0
SAS 6 6.3 6.7 7.2 34.5 32.0 6.8 0.4 >0
PHX* 3.8 4.1 4.5 4.9 50.7 28.3 3.5 0.1 >0
POR 3.7 4 4.4 4.8 63.4 18.5 1.2 >0 >0
DAL 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.5 77.6 13.5 0.5 >0
CHI 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.4 85.2 6.6 0.1
SAC* 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 92.9 3.3
ATL* 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 96.6

(* Asterisks denote traded picks)

  • The Sixers‘ pick will be sent to the Thunder if it’s outside the top six.
  • The Suns‘ pick will be sent to the Rockets.
  • The Kings‘ pick will be sent to the Hawks if it’s outside the top 12.
  • The Hawks‘ pick will be sent to the Spurs.

Multiple tiebreakers will still be required before the pre-lottery draft order is locked in, since three pairs of lottery teams finished the regular season with identical records.

The teams listed above in italics were tied, so the following spots in the chart could still be flipped, pending the results of random tiebreakers:

  1. Phoenix Suns / Portland Trail Blazers (36-46)
  2. Dallas Mavericks / Chicago Bulls (39-43)
  3. Sacramento Kings / Atlanta Hawks (40-42)

For instance, if the Trail Blazers win their tiebreaker with the Suns, they’ll be the team that has about a 50/50 chance at the No. 9 pick in the lottery, whereas the Suns’ pick (controlled by the Rockets) would become far more likely to end up at No. 10 or 11.

Lottery teams that ended up with identical regular season records essentially have the same odds at a top-four pick as one another, though the clubs that win the tiebreakers will get one extra ping-pong ball combination at No. 9, No. 11, and No. 13.


Traded first-round picks

The play-in results also provided some clarity on certain first-round picks that were traded with protections.

Crucially, as we outlined earlier tonight, the fact that the Heat and Grizzlies made the playoffs on Friday means they’ll both give up their 2025 first-round picks, which were top-14 protected and will now land outside of that range. Miami will send the No. 15 overall pick to the Thunder, while Memphis will send either the No. 18, 19, or 20 pick (depending on the results of a Monday tiebreaker) to the Wizards.

Because the Warriors made it through the play-in tournament earlier in the week, their pick at No. 18, 19, or 20 will be conveyed to the Heat.

The Spurs, who control the Hawks‘ first-round pick, will now have a second lottery selection in addition to their own by virtue of Atlanta losing two consecutive play-in games and missing the playoffs. That pick will almost certainly end up at No. 13 or 14, depending on the results of Monday’s tiebreaker. There’s a very slim chance it could move into the top four.

The Hawks lucked out on Friday when the Grizzlies defended their home court and eliminated Dallas from the postseason. If the Mavericks had pulled out a win, Memphis would’ve entered the lottery as the No. 14 team  in the lottery standings and could’ve pushed Sacramento up to No. 12, depending on the results of a Monday tiebreaker. The Kings will send their pick to the Hawks if it lands outside the top 12, which is highly likely to happen now that Sacramento will be at either No. 13 or 14 entering the lottery.


Playoff teams

Based on the play-in results, the draft order outside of the lottery will be as follows, pending tiebreakers:

  1. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Heat)
  2. Orlando Magic
  3. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Pistons)
  4. Washington Wizards (from Grizzlies) / Miami Heat (from Warriors) / Brooklyn Nets (from Bucks)
    • Note: A random tiebreaker will determine the order from Nos. 18-20.
  5. Utah Jazz (from Timberwolves)
  6. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Clippers) / Indiana Pacers / Orlando Magic (from Nuggets) / Atlanta Hawks (from Lakers)
    • Note: A random tiebreaker will determine the order from Nos. 22-25.
  7. Brooklyn Nets (from Knicks)
  8. Brooklyn Nets (from Rockets)
  9. Boston Celtics
  10. Phoenix Suns (from Cavaliers)
  11. Los Angeles Clippers (from Thunder)

The random tiebreakers for draft positioning will be conducted on Monday afternoon at 3:00 pm Eastern time, per Tim Reynolds of The Associated Press (Twitter link).

Once those tiebreakers are completed, we’ll publish a full pre-lottery order for both rounds of the 2025 draft.

Poll: Who Will Win Friday’s Play-In Games?

The higher seed came out on top in each of the No. 7 vs. No. 8 play-in games on Tuesday, but the two lower seeds pulled off upsets in the No. 9 vs. 10 contests on Wednesday, setting up a pair of No. 8 vs. 10 matchups on Friday to determine the final playoff teams in the Eastern and Western Conferences.

In the East, the No. 10 Heat will visit the No. 8 Hawks in a second consecutive battle of divisional rivals for Atlanta. The first of those matchups didn’t go well for the Hawks, who really struggled to get the ball in the basket against the NBA’s No. 2 defense on Tuesday in Orlando.

Trae Young (8-of-21), Zaccharie Risacher (2-of-10), and Caris LeVert (3-of-11) were among the players who had poor shooting nights vs. the Magic. Atlanta made a season-low four 3-pointers on the night and shot just 38.1% from the floor, including 19.0% from beyond the arc.

While the Heat weren’t quite as good defensively during the regular season as Orlando, they also ranked in the top 10 in defensive rating and played very well on that end of the court in Wednesday’s win over Chicago. The Bulls scored just 90 points on 39.8% shooting (27.0% on three-pointers). As the Hawks return home, they’ll need to figure out how to make more headway against the Heat’s defense than they did against the Magic’s.

The Hawks, who won 12 of their last 20 games of the regular season, had more momentum entering the play-in tournament than the Heat, who won just 12 of their last 33. Atlanta will also have home-court advantage on Friday.

But the two teams split their season series, and given how the first round of the play-in tournament played out, oddsmakers aren’t willing to give Atlanta the typical edge that would be awarded to the higher seed and home team. As I was writing this article, BetOnline.ag modified their betting line, which had been a pick-em, to make the Heat one-point favorites.

Over in the West, it’s the No. 8 Grizzlies hosting the No. 10 Mavericks in a battle of teams whose seasons have taken a nose-dive since the trade deadline. While Dallas was hammered by injuries and has been dealing with the fallout of the immensely unpopular Luka Doncic trade, Memphis has undergone a head coaching change and fell several spots in the standings.

The only reason the Grizzlies didn’t have the worst record (13-18) among all 10 Western Conference playoff/play-in teams between February 7 and the end of the regular season is because the Mavericks (12-18) were slightly worse.

Both teams were competitive in their first play-in matchups though. Memphis took the Warriors down to the wire in Golden State on Tuesday, while Dallas comfortably handled the Kings in Sacramento on Wednesday. There’s no shortage of talent on either roster, especially in the frontcourt, where Grizzlies big man Jaren Jackson Jr. is a candidate for All-NBA and Defensive Player of the Year honors, while Mavericks big man Anthony Davis would have been too if he’d played enough games to qualify.

The Mavs’ Achilles heel is in their backcourt, where star point guard Kyrie Irving is unavailable after going down in March with a season-ending ACL tear. Dallas actually went without a starting point guard vs. Sacramento, rolling with a jumbo lineup featuring Davis, Dereck Lively, P.J. Washington, Naji Marshall, and Klay Thompson.

But former two-way player Brandon Williams, who was promoted to the 15-man roster in the final week of the season, showed why Dallas wanted him for the postseason. The undrafted point guard put up 17 points and five assists in 18 minutes off the bench — the Mavs outscored Sacramento by 24 points during those minutes.

The Grizzlies’ own star point guard, Ja Morant, vowed to play in Friday’s do-or-die game, but it remains to be seen how effective he’ll be. Morant sustained a sprained right ankle on Tuesday and clearly lost a step late in the game as he tried to play through that injury.

Home-court advantage could end up being a real factor here. The Grizzlies posted a 26-15 record in Memphis this season, while the Mavs went just 17-25 on the road. That’s likely a major reason why the oddsmakers at BetOnline currently have Memphis as the six-point favorite.

We want to know what you think. Will either the Heat or Mavericks become the first No. 10 seed since the play-in tournament was implemented in 2021 to earn a playoff spot? Or will the Hawks and Grizzlies defend their home courts and earn first-round series against Cleveland and Oklahoma City, respectively?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts and predictions!

Community Shootaround: Wednesday Play-In Team Futures

Wednesday evening will see four teams in very different places fight for the opportunity to earn the No. 8 seeds in their respective conferences.

For the third straight season, the 39-43 Bulls will be squaring off against the 37-45 Heat in a play-in tournament game. This year, however, Chicago seems to have the edge. Per BetOnline stateside and BetVictor Canada, the Bulls are a marginal favorite as the home team.

Having moved on from former All-Star wings DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine, Chicago has been emphasizing more pace and ball movement. Star guards Coby White and Josh Giddey are propelling a fast-breaking offense that won 15 of its last 20 games to close out the 2024/25 regular season.

Rookie forward Matas Buzelis has benefited mightily from extended run to close out the year, while center Nikola Vucevic has adapted well to this speedier iteration of the team, operating as a trailing big who can be a release valve in these frenetic offensive sets.

Recently extended guard Lonzo Ball (wrist) and new trade acquisition Tre Jones (foot) will miss Wednesday’s game.

The No. 10 Heat, meanwhile, have been up and down since their blockbuster midseason Jimmy Butler trade. Armed with new additions Andrew Wiggins, Davion Mitchell and Kyle Anderson, the club stumbled into a 10-game losing skid that was immediately followed by a six-game winning streak. Miami, which controls its own 2025 first-round pick as long as it lands in the top 14, might be happy to lose this matchup and reset with a quick rebuild through this year’s loaded draft lottery.

Chicago team president Arturas Karnisovas has been a frequent source of fan ire. He and ownership would probably like to see the young Bulls appear in their first playoff series since 2022. If Chicago does clinch a playoff appearance by beating Miami and then the Hawks in Friday’s final play-in game, would it prompt Karnisovas to shy away from the kinds of personnel changes he might otherwise pursue this summer, including a Vucevic trade for draft equity?

The Mavericks, on paper, are fielding the most talented squad out of the four Wednesday teams. Had nine-time All-Star guard Kyrie Irving not torn his ACL, Dallas could have been in the thick of the playoff hunt. Instead, the 39-43 Mavs are clinging to the Western Conference’s No. 10 seed. With most of the rest of the roster healthy, the club will be riding a super-sized frontcourt lineup centered around 10-time All-Star big man Anthony Davis as its two-way fulcrum.

Dallas was constructed to win around Luka Doncic. After sending him to Los Angeles in exchange for Davis, three-and-D swing Max Christie, and a 2029 first-round draft pick, the front office was roundly criticized. Still, with Irving, Davis, and talented two-way wings and frontcourt pieces, a healthy version of this team looks like it could be a legitimate tough playoff out. Due to the timing of Irving’s recovery and Davis’ extensive injury history, it’s unclear when exactly that healthy iteration might next be available.

Meanwhile, Doncic has raised the Lakers’ ceiling. If Dallas misses the playoffs, will the club’s new ownership cohort look to penalize Nico Harrison for the most unpopular transaction in its franchise’s history? The Mavericks do have the highest upside of any of the teams in action on Wednesday, but that comes with a massive health caveat.

Dallas will be facing off against a mostly-healthy Kings club for the right to play the Grizzlies on Friday.

After Sacramento team owner Vivek Ranadive fired former Coach of the Year Mike Brown midway through the season, guard De’Aaron Fox pushed for – and received – a deal to the Spurs. The 40-42 Kings have since struggled with their newest impact player, LaVine, under interim head coach Doug Christie. Sacramento is loaded with ball stoppers – including LaVine, DeRozan, and Malik Monk – but has perhaps the more talented offense than Dallas sans Irving, thanks in large part to do-everything All-Star center Domantas Sabonis.

Should Sacramento get booted in this initial play-in tournament matchup, would Sabonis at least explore a trade out of town? A report in March suggested that the big man is expected to “seek clarity” this offseason on the Kings’ direction.

Just two years ago, during Brown’s inaugural season, the Kings finally seemed to have discovered a direction and identity. Now, the club is floundering in mediocrity. Massive changes — perhaps starting with Christie and Sabonis — could be underway for the team this summer, barring a strong playoff run.

We want to know what you think. How will the offseason play out for the the teams that get bounced in Wednesday’s games? What changes would – or should – be made if all four clubs eventually fail to qualify for the playoffs?

Poll: Who Will Win Wednesday’s Play-In Games?

When the 2024/25 season began, the Mavericks were coming off a 50-win year and an appearance in the NBA Finals. The Kings were coming off a 46-win campaign and had added DeMar DeRozan in free agency. Dallas had championship aspirations, while Sacramento felt good about its chances of making it back to the playoffs after being eliminated in the play-in tournament last spring.

But neither team’s season played out as hoped. The Mavericks’ shocking decision to trade Luka Doncic caused a fan revolt, but it was really the team’s health issues that sunk its hopes of contending for a title. Big men Dereck Lively, Daniel Gafford, and newly acquired Anthony Davis all missed significant time in the second half of the season due to injuries, while a torn ACL ended Kyrie Irving‘s season in early March.

Even without Doncic, a fully healthy version of this Mavericks team could’ve been a force to be reckoned with in the postseason. But losing Irving cost Dallas its top ball-handler and play-maker, forcing the team to lean heavily on guards like Spencer Dinwiddie and Brandon Williams and significantly lowering its ceiling.

While the Irving-less Mavs are unlikely to win a title this year, that doesn’t mean they can’t win a play-in game. They’ll visit Sacramento on Wednesday as the No. 10 seed in the West and will face a No. 9 Kings team whose season didn’t go much better than Dallas’ did.

Acclimating DeRozan didn’t go as smoothly as hoped and the Kings fell well below .500 two months into the season, leading to the ouster of head coach Mike Brown. Interim head coach Doug Christie helped turn things around in the short term, but just a few weeks later, word broke that the team was looking to trade De’Aaron Fox — he was ultimately sent to San Antonio.

While the Kings’ trade of its star point guard wasn’t nearly as controversial as the Mavericks’, it didn’t exactly kick-start a memorable second half. Zach LaVine, the centerpiece of Sacramento’s return in that three-team blockbuster, wasn’t an ideal fit — the team had a -3.8 net rating during his 1,170 minutes on the court, and his 119.9 defensive rating was easily the worst mark among the team’s rotation players.

Given the way the seasons have played out in Dallas and Sacramento, both teams have the profile of a one-and-done play-in team, but someone has to win on Wednesday and earn the right to face Memphis on Friday for the No. 8 seed in the West. For what it’s worth, oddsmakers favor the home team — the Kings are 4.5-point favorites, per BetOnline.ag.

Over in the East, a familiar matchup is on tap for Wednesday evening. If there’s such a thing as a play-in rivalry, Bulls vs. Heat qualifies. Miami defeated Chicago in the win-or-go-home play-in game for the No. 8 seed in 2023 and again in 2024. The two teams will square off in a single-elimination matchup for a third straight year, though this time it’s just for the right to stay alive and face Atlanta for the No. 8 seed on Friday.

Like Dallas and Sacramento, both the Bulls and Heat traded away star players this season, though those situations played out in very different ways.

LaVine, who had been on the trade block for multiple seasons, was a model citizen in Chicago and was enjoying a nice individual bounce-back season, though it wasn’t translating to team success — at the time he was dealt to Sacramento, the Bulls were just 21-29. And in the immediate wake of the trade, things didn’t improve — Chicago lost six of its next seven games to fall to 22-35 and appeared ticketed for the lottery.

Unexpectedly, though, the team suddenly began showing signs of life, led by breakout star Coby White and buoyed by trade-deadline additions like Tre Jones, Kevin Huerter, and Zach Collins. From March 6 onward, the Bulls improbably won 15 of their last 20 games and ranked in the top 10 in the NBA in both offense and defense.

The Heat’s season followed almost the opposite trajectory. Their star, Jimmy Butler, was disruptive and did all he could to publicize the fact that he had no interest in continuing his career in Miami, earning multiple team-imposed suspensions leading up to the trade deadline. But the team held its own amid the drama and was actually above .500 (25-24) on the day Butler was sent to Golden State.

Even though Butler hadn’t actually been playing much for the Heat for weeks, his departure kicked off an ugly downturn for the club, which wrapped up its season by going just 12-21 after the trade deadline. That stretch was salvaged to some extent by a six-game winning streak in late March and early April, but was otherwise pretty brutal — no playoff or play-in team had a worst post-deadline record than Miami, and a handful of lottery teams (Phoenix, Portland, and Toronto) were better.

Despite those late-season results, the Bulls are favored by just one point over Miami on Wednesday, according to BetOnline, with oddsmakers perhaps respecting the Heat’s wins over Chicago in each of the past two play-in tournaments.

We want to know what you think. Are you taking the favorites and picking the Kings and Bulls on Wednesday, or do you expect to see at least one upset in the No. 9 vs. 10 games? Which teams will keep their seasons alive and which ones are headed home?

Vote in our poll and head to the comment section below to share your thoughts and predictions.