Hoops Rumors Originals

$10MM+ NBA Players Who Were NCAA Champs

The NCAA tournament begins tonight, and in earnest on Thursday. Most of the 2015 NBA draft prospects have already drawn plenty of attention from scouts and executives, and the impact of college postseason performance is often overrated. Still, there will be plenty of NBA eyes on the NCAA over the next three weeks.

Elite prospects who are playing on NCAA tournament teams have the national championship as a short-term goal, and they surely dream of fat NBA paychecks in the future. Far fewer wind up with high salaries than the number of players who pursue them, and given the existence of the rookie scale for first-round picks, it’s quite a while between the time a college star gets to be paid like an NBA star. Eight-figure salaries are rarely obtainable for NBA players with less than four years of experience.

Plus, still crowding the top of the salary scale is a generation of players who didn’t have to go to college before the NBA implemented its age limit for the 2006 draft. Kobe Bryant, a preps-to-pros star, is still the league’s most highly paid player. There are plenty of international players who go to the NBA without having played in college, too, which further limits the connection between NCAA success and NBA jackpots.

There are only six players who have achieved the pinnacle of college success, winning an NCAA championship, and can boast of an NBA salary of at least $10MM this season. That includes Kemba Walker, who isn’t making that much this year but already signed an extension that will give him $12MM next season. Here’s the short list that underscores the importance of minimizing the connection between bracket-busting heroes and professional financial success on the hardwood:

The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.

Potential 2018 Free Agents Facing Cap Drop

The salary cap is likely to surge for the 2016/17 season, and teams and players anticipate another leap for 2017/18 that would take it above $100MM, as TNT’s David Aldridge wrote this week. However, the NBA and the players union reportedly acknowledge that it’s possible that the second jump is only temporary, and that the cap will return to its 2016/17 level for 2018/19. That would still represent quite a surge from this year’s $63.065MM cap, but with estimates ranging from about $85-90MM for 2015/16, that would be quite a comedown from $100MM-plus.

That’s a potential “recipe for disaster” for players set to hit free agency in 2018, as Aldridge put it. Already, there are 47 such players who can elect free agency no sooner than that summer, as long as their teams don’t cut them loose beforehand. The majority of them are first-round picks from last year signed to rookie scale contracts that would have the players in restricted free agency come July 2018. So, Andrew Wiggins and company could find a free agent market not only mined out from two years of dramatic leaps in the salary cap but further compressed by a suddenly more conservative cap. That’s also true for the 20 who are set for unrestricted free agency that summer, a group that includes James Harden, DeMarcus Cousins and Derrick Favors. Also among those 20 is Carmelo Anthony, who has an early termination option for 2018/19 that he might be more inclined to take in the hopes that the cap recovers for 2019/20. Paul George, who has a player option for 2018/19, is in the same position.

Here’s the complete list of players set for free agency in 2018, when the cap could shrink. Those with an (R) by their names are in line to become restricted free agents.

Nine others have player or early termination options for 2017/18 that they would seemingly be more likely to opt into if it appears by mid-2017 that there will indeed be a receding cap for 2018/19. The respective values of their options are listed by their names below, rounded to the nearest $1K:

Of course, all of this hinges on negotiations for the next collective bargaining agreement that are expected to take place after the 2016/17 season, when the league and the union have a mutual option on the existing agreement. The union, faced with the possibility of a cap that could plummet and surge from year to year, might be more willing at that point to consent to cap smoothing. The league might agree to keep the salary cap from dipping too low if the players are willing to make other concessions. In any case, there’s uncertainty for the players listed above, even if the potential consequences are a few years off.

The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.

Hoops Rumors Originals

Here’s a look at the original analysis generated by the Hoops Rumors staff this week..

This Date In Transactions History: Gerald Wallace

On this date three years ago, the Nets paid a hefty price to give star guard Deron Williams some additional help.  New Jersey, gearing up for their long-anticipated move to Brooklyn, acquired Gerald Wallace in exchange for Mehmet Okur, Shawne Williams, and a top-three protected 2012 pick.  Of course, the trade deadline is typically weeks earlier than March 15th, but the cutoff was pushed up in the 2011/12 season thanks to the NBA lockout, which resulted in an abbreviated 66-game season.

While Crash still had a great deal to offer talent-wise, the deal raised some eyebrows for a lot of people from the Nets’ perspective.  For starters, Wallace held a $9.5MM player option for the following season and, theoretically, this trade could have amounted to a ~20 game rental for the Nets, who were certainly not headed to the postseason.  Not only were the Nets not playoff bound, but they had the sixth-worst record in the league at 15-29, so they were giving away a highly valuable asset in their first-round pick, even though it was top-three protected.  On the plus side, GM Billy King managed to shed Okur’s expiring $10.89MM contract and avoid Williams exercising his $3.1MM option for the following year.

In the offseason, Wallace would decline his player option and the two sides instead inked a brand new four-year, $40MM pact.  While Wallace became a fan favorite with his hard-nosed style of play, it was clear that his approach to the game wasn’t the best thing when it came to his longevity.  In the following season, Wallace averaged 7.7 PPG (his lowest posting since 2003/04) with an 11.6 PER that put him well below the league average.  The Nets finished the 2012/13 season with 49 wins, but they were sent packing early when the Bulls knocked them off in the opening round of the playoffs.  Months after that, just one year after the small forward signed that lucrative new deal with the Nets, Wallace was shipped to the Celtics in the blockbuster deal that would bring Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce to the Barclays Center.  Later on,  as a member of the C’s, Wallace would comment on how that deal was also ill-fated.

It was one of those stories of a get-rich-quick scheme. You either hit it big or you don’t,” Wallace said, according to Stefan Bondy of the New York Daily News. “They took a gamble. It backfired.”

The Blazers, in essence, took advantage of the Nets’ desperation to fast forward their timetable for contention while taking on very little ($3.5MM thanks to Williams’ option) in future salary.  That first round pick from the Nets gave Portland the No. 6 overall choice in the 2012 draft, which they used to select guard Damian Lillard.  The pride of Weber State shot up draft boards in the weeks leading up to the draft and he has obviously proven to be worth the hype.  Lillard has blossomed into a two-time All-Star and one of the very best point guards in the NBA today.  Meanwhile, the Nets have watched Deron Williams decline sharply just three years after signing him to a five-year, ~$100MM deal.

Hoops Rumors Weekly Mailbag 3/8/15-3/13/15

In addition to our weekly chat, which Chuck Myron facilitates every Wednesday, we have added a second opportunity for you to hit us up with your questions in this, our weekly mailbag feature. Have a question regarding player movement, the salary cap, or the NBA draft? Drop me a line at HoopsRumorsMailbag@Gmail.com or @EddieScarito on Twitter. Now for this week’s inquiries:

“Can you see the Knicks trading their lottery pick (after the draft) to Sacramento for DeMarcus Cousins since the Kings didn’t rule out trading him at the deadline?” Rodney M.

I honestly don’t see the Kings parting ways with Cousins, who is one of the most talented big men in the league, unless a schism develops between him and coach George Karl that is deemed irreparable. But if given the chance, that’s a deal that Knicks president Phil Jackson should take immediately. Normally, I’m a big proponent of building teams through the draft, but the Knicks’ situation is a complicated one.

I wasn’t a fan of the Knicks re-signing Carmelo Anthony, and I still believe that New York would have been better served to work out a sign-and-trade for ‘Melo instead of tethering all its hopes to an aging, one-dimensional scorer. But the team is stuck with Anthony for the next few seasons, and to get the most out of team owner James Dolan’s investment in the forward, the Knicks need to acquire talent who can help them win immediately. There isn’t a player in this year’s draft, save for perhaps Willie Cauley-Stein of Kentucky, who could step in from day one and be a solid contributor. But he’s not top three pick material, which is where the Knicks will likely be selecting come June.

So if I’m the Knicks, I would explore all of my options with the pick, including trading it. Though the Kings are unlikely to bite and give up on Cousins without seeing what he can be under Karl’s tutelage. I certainly wouldn’t given his talent level.

“Where do you see JaVale McGee ending up?” Quincy

The easy answer to this question is that he’ll go to the first team to offer him a player option for 2015/16. McGee doesn’t strike me as being picky at this point. He absolutely needs to catch on somewhere and rehabilitate his rep and value before the end of the season. His next contract hangs in the balance. There are a number of contenders who could absolutely use McGee’s skills on the court, but very few of those franchises likely want to deal with him off of the hardwood, where he has a reputation for being immature and difficult.

But not to cheat you on providing an answer, I would say that he’ll most likely end up in Texas with the Mavs or the Rockets. Both teams are willing to gamble on players with questionable maturity, and both could benefit from more depth in the middle.

“Do you see a chance that any player other than Jahlil Okafor becomes the No. 1 overall pick in this year’s draft?”  Stephen R.

Is there a chance? Absolutely. In fact, Okafor’s hold on the top pick is becoming more tenuous as the NCAA season wears on. It’s not because Okafor has disappointed, because he’s been exceptional for Duke this season. It’s more about potential. Okafor isn’t an elite athlete, nor a good defender for his size, which will limit his overall ceiling somewhat. He’ll be a fixture in the middle for years to come for the team that drafts him, but that doesn’t mean he’ll end up the best player in this draft. There are a growing number of scouts who believe that Karl-Anthony Towns will end up being the superior player in a few short years. Towns does possess the athleticism to evolve into someone quite special on the court. His offense is a work in progress, but he’s already a superior defender to Okafor. But the Duke big man gets the edge in maturity and overall polish over Towns.

The wildcard in this year’s draft will be the positional needs of the team that wins the NBA lottery. A team like the Sixers, who have Joel Embiid and Nerlens Noel in their frontcourt already, may find selecting Emmanuel Mudiay or D’Angelo Russell a more practical choice. Both guards have been mentioned at one time or another as being in contention to go No. 1 overall by various scouts. But barring an injury to Okafor between now and June, I still don’t foresee too many GMs taking a pass on adding Okafor to their roster if given the opportunity on draft night.

“Who do you think will be a sleeper pick in the NBA draft?” Dustin

This is a funny sort of draft. Just about every player in the second-tier could be considered a sleeper depending on where they are selected. The crop this year is close in so many ways. But I’ll give you a few players who could end up surprising the league.

  • R.J. Hunter (Georgia State) — Guard
  • Jakob Poeltl (Utah) — Center
  • Zhou Qi (China) — Forward
  • Justin Anderson (Virginia) — Forward/Guard
  • Robert Upshaw (Washington) — Center

Both Hunter and Poeltl could be mid-to-late first-rounders, though Poeltl may come back for his sophomore season at Utah. Poeltl has a wealth of potential, but needs quite a bit of polish. Coming back for one more season would be a good move, especially given the wealth of big men in this year’s draft.

Hunter is a player who I believe will make a better pro than college player. The kid is fearless and he can and will shoot from anywhere in the arena. He’s hitting under 40% of his field goal attempts this season, which obviously isn’t great. But he’s a player who could turn into a big time scorer off the bench.

Anderson should end up being a mid first round pick as well, and he’s a player with quite a bit of upside and athleticism. As with most college wings, his outside shot needs more consistency, and he needs to figure out how to create his own shot better if he wants to succeed at the next level.

The last two on this list, Upshaw and Qi, are likely second-rounders. Upshaw has first round talent, but with the glut of big men available in this year’s draft, he’ll probably slide a bit as a result. His defense should translate very well to the NBA, but he needs some serious development on offense. Upshaw also has some character concerns. He was dismissed from Fresno State for multiple rules violations before attending Washington. But his talent will make him worthy of a gamble.

Qi is a bit of a wild card. He’s a fantastic athlete with a high skillset. The Chinese big man would be a great draft-and-stash candidate for a patient team. The 19-year-old is scary thin, and would not survive an NBA season until he added some weight and muscle. But Qi just may be the third most talented international player in this year’s draft behind Mario Hezonja and Kristaps Porzingis.

That’s all the space I have for now. I’ll be back next week to answer more of your questions. So please keep filling up my inbox with them in the meantime. Feel free to add to the discussion in the comments section below.

2015/16 Salary Commitments: Bulls

With the NBA trade deadline now passed, teams are focusing on locking down playoff spots or vying for a better chance in the draft lottery. Outside of the players who are added on 10-day deals, or those lucky enough to turn those auditions into long-term contracts, teams’ rosters are relatively set for the remainder of the season.

We at Hoops Rumors are in the process of taking a look ahead at each franchise’s salary cap situation heading into the summer, and the free agent frenzy that occurs every offseason. While the exact amount of the 2015/16 salary cap won’t be announced until July, the cap is projected to come in somewhere around $68MM, with the luxury tax threshold projected at approximately $81MM. This year’s $63.065MM cap represented  an increase of 7.7% over 2013/14, which was well above the league’s projected annual increase of 4.5%.

We’ll continue by taking a look at the Bulls’ cap outlook for 2015/16…

Here are the players with guaranteed contracts:

Here are the players with non-guaranteed contracts:

Players with options:

The Bulls’ Cap Summary for 2015/16:

  • Guaranteed Salary: $60,160,202
  • Options/Non-Guaranteed Salary: $4,290,420
  • Total: $64,450,622

The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.

2015/16 Salary Commitments: Hornets

With the NBA trade deadline now passed, teams are focusing on locking down playoff spots or vying for a better chance in the draft lottery. Outside of the players who are added on 10-day deals, or those lucky enough to turn those auditions into long-term contracts, teams’ rosters are relatively set for the remainder of the season.

We at Hoops Rumors are in the process of taking a look ahead at each franchise’s salary cap situation heading into the summer, and the free agent frenzy that occurs every offseason. While the exact amount of the 2015/16 salary cap won’t be announced until July, the cap is projected to come in somewhere around $68MM, with the luxury tax threshold projected at approximately $81MM. This year’s $63.065MM cap represented  an increase of 7.7% over 2013/14, which was well above the league’s projected annual increase of 4.5%.

We’ll continue onward by taking a look at the Hornets’ cap outlook for 2015/16…

Here are the players with guaranteed contracts:

Here are the players with non-guaranteed contracts:

  • N/A

Players with options:

The Hornets’ Cap Summary for 2015/16:

  • Guaranteed Salary: $46,176,980
  • Options/Non-Guaranteed Salary: $19.5MM
  • Total: $65,676,980

The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.

Players Eligible For Restricted Free Agency

All but five NBA teams have at least one player eligible for restricted free agency next season, though the number of players who actually become restricted free agents usually isn’t as high as that might suggest. Only 17 players wound up signing NBA contracts via restricted free agency this past offseason, in large measure because teams declined to tender qualifying offers to many free agents they didn’t prioritize keeping. Teams must make qualifying offers to restrict the free agency of their players, but there’s little reason to retain the right to match offers for a player who isn’t in demand, particularly when qualifying offers almost always entail a higher salary than the player saw the year before.

Still, several marquee and second-tier players near the end of their deals will indeed become restricted free agents. Only players who’ve been in the league for three or fewer seasons can be made restricted free agents, with the exception of players on rookie scale contracts, who can be restricted free agents after those four-year contracts run to term.

However, if a team declines a team option on a rookie scale contract, it can’t make the player a restricted free agent, even if the rookie deal ran only two or three seasons. If teams decline their options on non-rookie scale contracts, they can still restrict the player’s free agency. Team options are nonetheless rare for deals that aren’t rookie scale contracts, as most teams employ non-guaranteed salary instead, but if a club waives a non-guaranteed contract, it can’t make the player a restricted free agent no matter how long he’s been in the league.

Here’s a team-by-team look at the players eligible for restricted free agency this year:

76ers

Bucks

Bulls

Cavaliers

Celtics

Clippers

  • None

Grizzlies

Hawks

Heat

  • None

Hornets

Jazz

Kings

Knicks

Lakers

  • None

Magic

Mavericks

Nets

Nuggets

Pacers

Pelicans

Pistons

Raptors

  • None

Rockets

Spurs

Suns

Thunder

Timberwolves

Trail Blazers

Warriors

Wizards

  • None

* — The Rockets hold a team option on Papanikolaou, but if they decline it, he’ll be eligible for restricted free agency. Houston was in the same position last season with Chandler Parsons, and the team declined its option, making him a restricted free agent and choosing not to match when he signed an offer sheet with the Mavs. The market for Papanikolaou is not expected to approach last year’s demand for Parsons, however.

The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.

Team-By-Team Roster Flexibility Update

Fewer than five weeks remain in the season, but teams are still making adjustments to their rosters as they prepare for the playoffs, or, in some cases, get ready for next season. With the help of our Expanded Roster Counts, which Eddie Scarito of Hoops Rumors maintains, here’s a look at each team’s roster flexibility for the stretch run.

Nearly half the teams in the league have 15 contracts that run through season’s end, so the following clubs are the ones that are least likely to make any moves. They’d have to eat the remaining salary on one of their contracts to add someone else, assuming whomever they waived wasn’t claimed off waivers. However, as the end of the season approaches, it’s decreasingly costly to take the hit for the salary that remains on an expiring contract and sign another player to a prorated deal.

  • 76ers
  • Cavaliers
  • Celtics
  • Grizzlies
  • Hornets
  • Magic
  • Mavericks
  • Pacers
  • Raptors
  • Rockets
  • Spurs
  • Thunder
  • Timberwolves
  • Warriors

These teams also have 15 players on their roster, but one of those players is on a 10-day deal, allowing the clubs to retain a modicum of flexibility:

  • Bucks
  • Hawks
  • Heat
  • Wizards

Now we get to a group of teams that wouldn’t have to make a corresponding move and risk being on the hook for any salary at all if they signed a player. These clubs have 14 contracts that run through the end of the season, leaving one open roster spot. The Pistons are marked with an asterisk because while they technically only have 14 players, they’ve reportedly agreed to a multiyear deal with Quincy Miller. So, Detroit will soon join the group at the top with 15 contracts that carry through at least the end of the season.

  • Bulls
  • Kings
  • Knicks
  • Nets
  • Pistons*
  • Trail Blazers

These two teams don’t have any immediate open roster spots, but they have two 10-day contracts and only 13 players signed through the end of the season, leaving plenty of flexibility:

  • Clippers
  • Jazz

The following pair of clubs takes that even further, with 13 players signed through season’s end and only one 10-day contract. The Suns are marked with an asterisk since they’re apparently about to leave this group, having reportedly agreed to a deal with Earl Barron that covers the rest of the season.

  • Pelicans
  • Suns*

No team has more roster flexibility than the Nuggets, who have but 13 contracts guaranteed through the end of the season and no one on a 10-day contract, leaving two open roster spots. The Lakers are a one-of-a-kind case, too. They have 15 deals that run through season’s end and, thanks to the hardship exception, they also have Jabari Brown on a 10-day contract, giving them 16 players. Nick Young has missed the past eight games, and if doctors deem that he’s not expected to return for a while, the Lakers would qualify to apply for a 17th roster spot, though there’s been no indication of whether they plan to do so.

2015/16 Salary Commitments: Nets

With the NBA trade deadline now passed, teams are focusing on locking down playoff spots or vying for a better chance in the draft lottery. Outside of the players who are added on 10-day deals, or those lucky enough to turn those auditions into long-term contracts, teams’ rosters are relatively set for the remainder of the season.

We at Hoops Rumors are in the process of taking a look ahead at each franchise’s salary cap situation heading into the summer, and the free agent frenzy that occurs every offseason. While the exact amount of the 2015/16 salary cap won’t be announced until July, the cap is projected to come in somewhere around $68MM, with the luxury tax threshold projected at approximately $81MM. This year’s $63.065MM cap represented  an increase of 7.7% over 2013/14, which was well above the league’s projected annual increase of 4.5%.

We’ll continue by taking a look at the Nets’ cap outlook for 2015/16…

Here are the players with guaranteed contracts:

Here are the players with non-guaranteed contracts:

Players with options:

The Nets’ Cap Summary for 2015/16:

  • Guaranteed Salary: $58,678,233
  • Options/Non-Guaranteed Salary: $31,004,980
  • Total: $89,683,213

The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.