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Offseason Outlook: Phoenix Suns

May 23rd, 2012 at 9:41am CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (13th overall, pending lottery; 0.6% chance at first overall pick)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $30,564,520
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary, Cap Holds: $49,967,987
  • Total (not including draft picks): $80,532,507

Steve Nash may be 38 years old, but based on his 2011/12 performance, it seems he still has plenty left in the tank. The Suns didn't look like a Western Conference playoff team on paper, but with Nash leading the way, they hung around all year, eventually falling out of the postseason hunt in the season's last week. Now, the biggest question facing the team is whether or not to bring back its MVP on another multiyear contract.

There's been plenty of speculation on where Nash will land this summer, but it's impossible to predict the point guard's destination until we get a sense of his priorities. There have been rumblings that the Suns would offer Nash two years and $20MM, and I wouldn't be surprised if they up that offer to three years in a last-ditch attempt to retain him. Would Nash turn down all that money to play for a team like the Knicks or the Heat that could only offer him $3-5MM annually, albeit with a better chance at a title? The Suns' offseason plan hinges on that answer.

If Nash is willing to return, the team figures to use its remaining cap space to add a few pieces that can help the Suns contend right away. But Phoenix may be better off simply letting Nash walk and beginning the rebuilding process in earnest. The team has a number of assets at its disposal, including a huge chunk of cap space, the amnesty provision, and potential trade chip Marcin Gortat.

While it probably doesn't make sense to amnesty Josh Childress or Hakim Warrick unless the Suns have a specific alternate use in mind for that cap space, doing so could mean the team has nearly $30MM in cap room this summer. I doubt the Suns will convince Deron Williams to come to Phoenix, but all that room would allow them to bid on just about any other free agent they want, including their own. Plus, it would give the Suns the flexibility to take on another team's undesirable contract along with something of value — for instance, I imagine they'd be more than willing to take Lamar Odom from the Mavs if Dallas included a future draft pick.

Outside of taking on contracts, the Suns' options on the trade market aren't extensive, given Childress' and Warrick's lack of value. Channing Frye likely won't be a desirable trade target either, considering his salary, and I'd guess the Suns prefer to keep last year's first-rounder Markieff Morris. Of the players on guaranteed contracts, that leaves Jared Dudley and Gortat. If Nash leaves, it makes sense to explore trades involving those two veterans, since their value may never be higher — both are solid players, especially Gortat, but they're probably unlikely to repeat last year's production without Nash setting them up.

The Suns' offseason is hard to predict until we know whether or not Nash will be back. If he returns, it makes sense to bring back Grant Hill on a one-year deal, sign a couple other veterans, and make another run at the playoffs. But that's probably not the team's best chance at long-term success. If I were GM Lon Babby, I wouldn't be devastated if Nash signed elsewhere — it would make Aaron Brooks a larger free agent priority, make trades more likely, and mean cap space could be saved for future summers, as the team rebuilds through the draft. Either way, Babby and the Suns' staff have an interesting challenge ahead as they face the possibility of beginning the post-Nash era in Phoenix.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Bucks

May 18th, 2012 at 11:00am CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (12th overall, pending lottery; 0.7% chance at first overall pick)
  • 2nd Round (42nd overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary (including likely options): $45,781,925
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary, Cap Holds: $22,840,095
  • Total (not including draft picks): $68,622,020

Trading big for small is something most NBA teams try to avoid, but it's exactly what the Bucks did at this year's trade deadline, moving the injured Andrew Bogut to Golden State in a blockbuster deal for Monta Ellis. With Bogut sidelined for the year with a broken ankle, Ellis gave Milwaukee a chance to immediately contend for a playoff spot in the East.

Of course, that postseason bid fell short, and now the Bucks head into the summer with Ellis and Brandon Jennings in their backcourt and an uninspiring group of big men remaining under contract. If the Bucks hope to earn a playoff berth next season, a frontcourt comprised of Drew Gooden, Luc Mbah a Moute, Ekpe Udoh, Larry Sanders, and Jon Brockman isn't going to get it done. While some of those players are useful contributors or have long-term potential, none of them should receive more than 25 minutes per game next year if Milwaukee wants to make some noise in the East.

While trading either Ellis or Jennings for a big man may look like one solution for the Bucks' frontcourt needs, it's not something I expect the team to consider this offseason. I imagine the club wants to see its two backcourt scorers play together for more than the few weeks they had at the end of this season before deciding whether the combination does or doesn't work. Perhaps by February 2013, one or both of those players will become trade candidates, but the Bucks will give them every chance to succeed before considering a move.

The Bucks' best bets for adding a big or two are free agency and the draft. Milwaukee would do well to re-sign its own free agent power forward, Ersan Ilyasova, but the 25-year-old is coming off a breakout season, having set career highs in PPG (13.0), RPG (8.8), FG% (.493), 3PT% (.455), PER (20.5), and a handful of other categories. As an unrestricted free agent, the runner-up for Most Improved Player of the Year figures to draw plenty of interest, and may ultimately decide to sign elsewhere.

In that case, the Bucks would still have a good chunk of cap space to throw at other free agents. On the unrestricted market alone, forwards and centers like Kris Humphries, Chris Kaman, Spencer Hawes, Joel Przybilla, Marcus Camby, Antawn Jamison, and others could attract interest from Milwaukee. None of those players would be out of the Bucks' price range, and many of them would be excellent fits.

Even if Milwaukee can't recruit a major free agent, a deep draft class should provide the club an opportunity to add another young player to its front-line. In his latest mock draft, Chad Ford of ESPN.com has Jared Sullinger falling to the Bucks, and while I'm not sure the Ohio State product slips that far, power forward is the draft's deepest position — a number of intriguing options should be available if Milwaukee picks at #12.

The Bucks shook up the foundation of their franchise when they sent a potential All-Star center to Golden State in March, and now they'll have to replace the production that Bogut and perhaps Ilyasova would have provided. It's too early to say whether pairing of Jennings and Ellis is the Bucks' best plan of action going forward, but I expect the team to do everything it can this summer to try to make it work, by bringing in the frontcourt talent necessary to help complement its two scoring guards.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Portland Trail Blazers

May 16th, 2012 at 1:15pm CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

  • None

Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (Nets' top-three-protected pick, pending lottery; 74.7% chance to acquire pick)
  • 1st Round (Pending lottery; 0.8% chance at first overall pick)
  • 2nd Round (40th overall)
  • 2nd Round (41st overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary (including likely options): $29,693,381
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary (including unlikely options), Cap Holds: $40,283,757
  • Total (not including draft picks): $69,977,183

The Trail Blazers will be building from the ground up this offseason, both on and off the court. The team is currently in the midst of searching for its new general manager, who in turn will likely hire a new head coach shortly thereafter. And if that wasn't enough, the Blazers only have six players on guaranteed contracts for next year, including four guys making less than $2MM. Armed with plenty of cap space, the new GM will face an interesting challenge upon taking the job.

Although the Blazers have only about $26MM committed to their six guaranteed players, that doesn't mean the club will have $30MM+ in cap room at its disposal. Shawne Williams ($3.14MM) is a sure bet to opt into the final year of his contract. And even if the team renounces Jamal Crawford, J.J. Hickson, and all its other non-Nicolas Batum free agents, Batum's cap hold adds $5.39MM. If Portland holds steady in the lottery and picks sixth and 11th overall, that'll tack on another $4.33MM in rookie contracts. Throw in a few minimum-salary cap holds or rookies to fill out the roster, and the Blazers will have $40MM+ on their books before spending a single cent in free agency.

Still, with more than $17MM in cap room at their disposal, the Blazers are expected to be very active on the free agent market. A max or near-max offer to Deron Williams is a possibility, though I'd be very surprised if he landed in Portland. The Blazers could be strong contenders for any one of the second-tier of free agents though. With holes at point guard and center, the Blazers will probably at least kick the tires on players like Steve Nash, Goran Dragic, D.J. Augustin, Chris Kaman, Roy Hibbert, and Spencer Hawes.

One complication in the Blazers' pursuit of free agents is the status of their own restricted free agent, Nicolas Batum. Batum's agent recently indicated that he and his client won't wait around for Portland to use its cap space, but rather will sign the first lucrative offer sheet they receive. What does this mean for the Blazers? Well, if Batum signs an offer with another team worth $10MM annually, Portland has just three days to match the offer and retain the 23-year-old. And if the Blazers were to match the offer, Batum's cap hit would rise from $5.39MM to $10MM, reducing the Blazers' spending room from $17MM+ to under $13MM.

Even with that reduced cap flexibility, the Blazers should still be able to land a major free agent, perhaps one of the names I mentioned above. But if the team isn't in love with a particular free agent, or has concerns about recruiting players to Portland, the trade market is another option. Because they'll likely have a pair of lottery picks, the Blazers are in a great position to send one of them to a rebuilding team in exchange for a veteran contributor. The club could also take advantage of its cap space by taking on a veteran's salary in a trade. For instance, if the Blazers miss out on top free agent point guards like Williams and Nash, the Raptors would probably be all ears if Portland were to inquire on Jose Calderon and his $10MM+ salary.

The constant turnover in recent years suggests the Blazers' general manager job may not be a safe or desirable position, but the team's assets should certainly appeal to the new GM. Despite losing potential franchise cornerstones like Greg Oden and Brandon Roy to injuries, the Blazers have an All-Star to build around in LaMarcus Aldridge. With Batum expected to be retained, a pair of high draft picks in hand, and room under the cap to maneouever, the Blazers are in pretty good position to return to the postseason in the not-so-distant future.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Timberwolves

May 15th, 2012 at 10:08am CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (18th overall)
  • 2nd Round (58th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $48,610,707
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary, Cap Holds: $31,835,772
  • Total (not including draft picks): $80,446,479

On the surface, the Timberwolves' 26-40 record suggests the 2011/12 campaign wasn't an overwhelming success. However, there were many encouraging signs for T-Wolves fans to take away from the season. The .394 winning percentage was actually Minnesota's best since 2005/06, and prior to Ricky Rubio's season-ending injury, the team was playing even better basketball, on the verge of contending for a playoff spot.

Rubio and Kevin Love are locked up for at least another three years, so now it's a matter of finding a supporting cast to surround the Timberwolves' two young stars. Having traded their lottery pick away, the Wolves aren't in position to add another young star to their core, but with some potential cap space and trade assets, the team has a few options heading into the summer.

The T-Wolves have a pair of players coming off rookie contracts in Michael Beasley and Anthony Randolph, and will need to submit qualifying offers of $8.17MM and $4.05MM, respectively, to make them restricted free agents. I have my doubts about the team re-signing either player, so perhaps those qualifying offers won't even be made, though that's just my speculation. Either way, the club's decisions on Beasley and Randolph are crucial — with the qualifying offers or cap holds on the books for those guys, Minnesota won't be in position to make use of cap space, and will be limited to the $5MM mid-level exception when pursuing free agents.

The pursuit of free agents will be important for the Wolves, since it seems like their best chance at acquiring a shooting guard, which has been the team's most glaring hole in recent years. This year's free agent class is strong, with Ray Allen, Nick Young, Jamal Crawford, Jason Terry, and Leandro Barbosa among the players expected to be unrestricted FAs. For a couple of those guys, the mid-level exception should be enough, but if the T-Wolves want to make a strong play for someone like Allen or Terry, they could renounce their free agents and gain about $8MM in cap room.

While free agency is one avenue the T-Wolves will explore, the draft won't necessarily be a lost cause. Though they don't have their own pick, the Wolves acquired Utah's first-rounder, which will be 18th overall. Given this year's deep draft class, there should be some fairly appealing shooting guards or small forwards available for the Wolves at that spot — perhaps Terrence Ross, Dion Waiters, Moe Harkless, or Quincy Miller.

If the T-Wolves feel like they're close enough to contention that they prefer to bring in veteran talent rather than continuing to develop young players, a trade could be the best route. Besides their first-round pick, the Wolves also have a couple trade chips in Luke Ridnour and last year's lottery pick, Derrick Williams. I expect the team to keep Ridnour around at least until Rubio proves he's 100% healthy, and Williams' value isn't at its peak at the moment. But both players are assets the Wolves could use to fill other holes on their roster, if they can find the right deal.

At first glance, the Timberwolves' guaranteed commitments for 2012/13 – 10 players and $48MM+ – suggest there won't be much roster turnover this offseason, but Minnesota is definitely in position to make a few moves. I'm guessing the club won't find a trade offer it likes for Williams, and will look to the free agent market for a backcourt upgrade. A scenario in which the team re-signs Beasley, signs Crawford using its mid-level exception, and drafts a prospect like Miller or Ross isn't out of the question, and would make the T-Wolves a team to watch in 2012/13.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Detroit Pistons

May 14th, 2012 at 1:29pm CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Non-Guaranteed Contracts 

  • None

Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (Pending lottery; 1.7% chance at first overall pick)
  • 2nd Round (39th overall)
  • 2nd Round (44th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary (including options): $63,398,209
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary, Cap Holds: $6,142,550
  • Total (not including draft picks): $69,540,759

On February 1st, the Pistons were a 4-20 team, a mere half-game ahead of the lowly Bobcats and seemingly headed for a high lottery pick. The squad that played .500 ball (21-21) over the rest of the season is closer to what GM Joe Dumars and the front office expects to see from the Pistons in 2012/13.

With nine players on guaranteed deals, and Jason Maxiell a decent bet to pick up his $5MM player option and return, the Pistons' roster for next season figures to look similar to 2011/12's team. And if the Pistons of the second half show up, a mostly-unchanged roster isn't necessarily a bad thing. Young players like Brandon Knight and Greg Monroe continue to develop into strong NBA regulars, and the Pistons figure to add another lottery pick to the roster this summer.

Even with a free agent splash unlikely, the Pistons will face decisions on whether to be active on the trade market or use their amnesty provision. Dumars figures to explore every possible trade avenue, with Rodney Stuckey, Jonas Jerebko, Will Bynum, and Austin Daye among the players that could be discussed. Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva won't have trade value, but are candidates to be amnestied if the Pistons want to clear some cap room.

Of course, teams generally only make use of the amnesty provision for extremely unpalatable contracts or if they need to clear room to make another move. With Richard Hamilton's buyout still on their books, Maxiell potentially opting in, and a ninth overall pick adding another $2MM or so to the payroll, the Pistons' 2012/13 salary will likely exceed $65MM even before the team fills out its last few roster spots. Amnestying Gordon or Villanueva wouldn't create the necessary cap space to affect the team's free agent plans, so I wouldn't expect either player to be released unless Detroit is worried about hitting the luxury tax threshold.

All but assured a top-ten draft pick, the Pistons are in a good position to add size in June. Power forward is the draft's deepest position and the Pistons' greatest need. Even if Detroit stays put in the lottery and picks ninth, intriguing big men like Perry Jones III, Terrence Jones, Jared Sullinger, Tyler Zeller, and John Henson could be available. While Dumars has indicated the team may just select the best available player, there's a good chance that player could be a big man anyway.

With limited cap flexibility, the Pistons won't be a player for major free agents this summer, but they have enough trade assets to still have an eventful offseason. Expecting a playoff berth for Detroit next season may be a little too optimistic, unless the team can find a significant upgrade in the draft or on the trade market. But the squad that started 2011/12 by losing 20 of 24 games should be a distant memory when next season gets underway.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Toronto Raptors

May 11th, 2012 at 1:53pm CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (Pending lottery; 3.5% chance at first overall pick)
  • 2nd Round (37th overall)
  • 2nd Round (56th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $43,887,478
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary, Cap Holds: $30,271,632
  • Total (not including draft picks): $74,159,110

While most teams head into the offseason not entirely sure whether or not they'll land an impact player, the Raptors are assured of adding at least one such player to their rotation. Last year's fifth overall pick Jonas Valanciunas is expected to arrive in North America for the 2012/13 season, and he could be just the first of many interesting new faces in Toronto.

Even after adding Valanciunas to their books, the Raptors have an enviable cap situation. With just under $44MM in guaranteed salary committed to nine players, the Raps are in good position to renounce their cap holds and gain some cap space this summer. Although the team missed out on a potential offseason target when Wilson Chandler signed a long-term extension with the Nuggets, there are still a number of free agents that could interest Toronto, including Andrei Kirilenko and new Team Canada GM Steve Nash.

With Valanciunas, Andrea Bargnani, and DeMar DeRozan expected to be building blocks for the franchise going forward, the Raptors will be seeking a long-term solution at point guard and small forward. Jose Calderon ($10.56MM) and James Johnson ($2.81MM) are the incumbents, but both players will face free agency after next season. Johnson is certainly a player worth keeping around, but he may be better served coming off the bench, making Kirilenko an intriguing possibility for the starting lineup.

Calderon, meanwhile, was efficient on the offensive end, but isn't strong defensively. Even at age 38, Nash is the superior player, albeit with a similar skill set. Taking into account the appeal a Canadian star could have in Toronto, it wouldn't surprise me to see the Raptors make Nash a competitive multiyear offer. However, if the two-time MVP's top priority is a championship ring, he may turn down the Raps' money for a chance to win elsewhere.

With Calderon under contract for next season, the Raptors may not pursue a non-Nash point guard in free agency, though it's an area they could target in the draft. Given this year's underwhelming class of point guards, the Raps would likely have their pick of the litter at eighth overall, and could nab Weber State's Damian Lillard. The club could also use its lottery pick on a scorer like Austin Rivers or Dion Waiters to replace Jerryd Bayless if the combo guard departs in free agency.

If the cap space, lottery pick, and new arrival from overseas weren't enough, the Raptors also have a handful of interesting trade chips at their disposal. Ed Davis could be expendable in a frontcourt that includes Valanciunas, Bargnani, and Amir Johnson, and his affordable contract should draw plenty of interest. If they want to get adventurous, the Raptors could even explore trades for Bargnani, though I doubt they'd go in that direction unless they repeated Cleveland's 2011 feat — landing the first overall pick with the eighth-best odds. Pairing Valanciunas with Anthony Davis would give the team a tremendous foundation and would provide the opportunity to shop Bargnani for wing or backcourt help.

General manager Bryan Colangelo and other members of the Raptors have strongly suggested the team expects to contend for the playoffs next season. Considering the progress made under coach Dwane Casey in his first year in Toronto, it's not an unrealistic goal. Adding Valanciunas this summer is a near certainty, but the club's postseason chances may depend on the rest of its offseason moves. Armed with a lottery pick, trade chips, and cap room, the Raps have a great opportunity to take a big step forward.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Golden State Warriors

May 10th, 2012 at 2:46pm CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (Top-seven protected; pending lottery; 3.6% chance at first overall pick; 72.5% chance of keeping pick)
  • 1st Round (30th overall)
  • 2nd Round (35th overall)
  • 2nd Round (52nd overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary (including likely options): $55,957,097
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary, Cap Holds: $12,416,397
  • Total (not including draft picks): $68,373,494

The Warriors' offseason didn't technically begin until after the team played its final regular season game on April 26th, but unofficially it was well underway by that point. With the Warriors out of playoff contention, the offseason was underway when the club promoted Bob Myers to general manager earlier in April, and it was even underway when the team completed a blockbuster deal in March, swapping Monta Ellis for Andrew Bogut in a five-player trade.

Because Golden State got an early headstart on the offseason, the summer itself doesn't figure to be all that eventful. The Warriors will be looking forward to seeing how a healthy Bogut plays with the current nucleus, so they won't be shaking up the roster with any sort of major trades. The amnesty clause was used last December (Charlie Bell, anyone?), and with nearly $56MM in guaranteed contracts on the books, Golden State doesn't exactly have much cap flexibility.

The Warriors will have a few assets in play as they head into the summer. They hold four draft picks, though there's about a one-in-four chance their lottery selection will head to Utah if the ping-pong balls are unkind later this month. The team will also have the non-taxpayer mid-level exception to spend in free agency.

With Bogut, David Lee, Klay Thompson, and Stephen Curry penciled in as four of the club's five starters, the small forward position represents the biggest hole on the roster. Richard Jefferson and Dorell Wright can play the position, but probably shouldn't be relied upon for heavy minutes, so the Warriors figure to target the three-spot in the draft or free agency.

If Golden State keeps its top-seven-protected pick in the draft, the team should be targeting Michael Kidd-Gilchrist or Harrison Barnes. Those two players are easily the top small forwards in this year's draft class, and either would be a terrific addition for the Warriors. If neither player is on the board when the Warriors draft at #7, perhaps Golden State could consider trading the pick, along with a contract or two, to obtain a veteran small forward.

While free agency is another route the team could go in its search for a small forward, the pickings will be slim. Gerald Green, Carlos Delfino, Boris Diaw, and Steve Novak are among the uninspiring names that highlight the list of threes available in unrestricted free agency. Nicolas Batum headlines the restricted free agents, but will command a larger contract than the Warriors can afford.

Perhaps the most intriguing candidates for the Warriors are Lamar Odom and Landry Fields. Odom is expected to be waived by the Mavericks, making him a free agent, and while there's no guarantee he'd be interested in Golden State, his value has dropped enough this season that the $5MM mid-level could be enough to land him. Fields, meanwhile, is a restricted free agent and will likely be re-signed by the Knicks, but a competitive mid-level type offer would make it tough on New York, who also want to re-sign Jeremy Lin and have major money committed to Carmelo Anthony, Amare Stoudemire, and Tyson Chandler.

2012/13 will be an important season for the Warriors, as they determine whether a squad led by Bogut can contend in the West, and decide whether to extend Curry's contract, which will expire in 2013. The team likely won't be too active this summer, simply looking to land a small forward and filling out the rest of its roster with rookies and veterans on minimum salaries. Those decisions aren't insignficant, but the team's major acquisition of 2012 (Bogut) has already been made.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Brooklyn Nets

May 8th, 2012 at 4:47pm CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (Top-three protected; pending lottery; 7.5% chance at first overall pick; 25.3% chance of keeping pick)
  • 2nd Round (57th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary (including likely options): $13,672,235
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary, Cap Holds: $53,595,203+
  • Total (not including draft picks): $67,267,438+

The Nets will begin their first season in Brooklyn this fall, but it's not yet clear which players will be wearing those black-and-white uniforms when the team takes the floor. The Nets have only four players under contract, for less than $10MM in total guaranteed salary. Even if Jordan Farmar exercises his player option as expected, the team's guaranteed contracts amount to just $13.67MM.

Even with the opportunity to gain an incredible amount of cap space, the Nets don't plan to be overly active in signing other teams' free agents until they figure out where they stand with their own. Deron Williams sits atop not only Brooklyn's wishlist, but the list of any team with cap space this summer — and even some without it. With Dwight Howard locked into his contract for another year and Williams expected to opt out to explore free agency, the point guard is the clear-cut top free agent available.

It's impossible to say yet whether Williams, or the team's other big-name free agents like Gerald Wallace and Brook Lopez, will end up re-signing with the Nets, but let's assume all three players are interested in returning. What might it cost the Nets to lock up their core players, and how much money would they have left over to spend on outside help?

As I outlined earlier today, a max offer for Williams would have a first-year salary of $17.18MM. Let's say Wallace agreed to a multiyear deal that started at about $8-9MM and that the Nets were forced to match an offer sheet for Lopez at around the same price. That would put the price tag for those three players at somewhere in the neighborhood of $35MM for 2012/13. Renouncing all of their non-Gerald Green free agents and taking into account minimum cap holds for empty roster spots would put the Nets' team salary at about $51MM — $7MM+ below the cap.

Of course, to take advantage of that $7MM+ in cap room, the Nets would have to renounce their bi-annual exception, traded player exceptions, and full mid-level exception. It would probably only make sense to do so if there's a desirable free agent out there who will choose the Nets' $7MM over another team's $5MM mid-level. Would $7MM be enough to land a big-name power forward like Kevin Garnett or Ersan Ilyasova? Maybe, but I doubt it. It makes more sense to attempt to re-sign Kris Humphries by taking advantage of his Bird rights, allowing the team to hang onto those cap exceptions.

There are a lot of moving parts involved in the Nets' offseason. I haven't even mentioned the team's first-round pick, which it has about a 25% chance of keeping. Lucking into Anthony Davis would sure provide a massive boost to the franchise as it moves to Brooklyn, but it's an extreme long shot.

It appears the Nets' likely best-case scenario involves re-signing its major free agents, and heading into Brooklyn led by Williams, Wallace, Lopez, Brooks, Morrow, Green, and perhaps a second-tier free agent or two. Would that nucleus be enough to contend in the East? The Nets would certainly need to stay healthier than they did in 2011/12, and even then, they don't match up favorably with rosters like Miami's and Chicago's.

Brooklyn's new team faces an uphill battle this summer, its offseason hinging on Williams' final decision and some good fortune. The best-case scenario could lead to a promising squad that makes a strong first impression in its new home. But if the Nets don't luck out in the lottery and Williams bolts for greener pastures, things could get ugly in Brooklyn in a hurry.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Sacramento Kings

May 7th, 2012 at 5:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (Pending lottery; 7.6% chance at first overall pick)
  • 2nd Round (36th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary (including likely options): $42,475,790
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary, Cap Holds: $14,379,699
  • Total (not including draft picks): $56,855,489

It was an ugly season for Sacramento both on the court, where the team only managed 22 wins, and off the court, where a handshake agreement on a new arena gradually fell apart. The Kings will play the 2012/13 season in Sacramento, but the franchise's long-term future is very much up in the air.

For all the uncertainty surrounding the Kings' arena, the roster itself appears unlikely to be overhauled significantly this summer. Of Sacramento's current 14 players, nine have guaranteed contracts for next year, two are on non-guaranteed deals, and three are restricted free agents — if they chose to, the Kings could bring all 14 players back, along with their lottery pick.

Of course, after finishing with the league's fifth-worst record, it's more likely that the Kings make at least a few small changes. Isaiah Thomas will certainly have his deal guaranteed, and Jason Thompson and Terrence Williams seem like decent bets to re-sign with the club, but it wouldn't be surprising if the team parted ways with Donte Greene and Hassan Whiteside.

Even if they re-sign Thompson and Williams and lock up their lottery pick, the Kings would have a little room to bring aboard a free agent or two. However, given the on- and off-court situation in Sacramento, the team will likely have to overpay to bring aboard a decent player. When the Kings had cap room last summer, Chuck Hayes and Travis Outlaw were their major additions, and now represent two of their most undesirable contracts.

Sacramento's best chance to make a splash this summer involves two of its wing scorers, John Salmons and Tyreke Evans. Salmons is the only real amnesty candidate on the roster, since only pre-lockout contracts are eligible under the provision. After coming over from Milwaukee, Salmons had a tremendously disappointing 2011/12 campaign, hampered by injuries and averaging just 7.5 points per game. He's under contract for nearly $16MM over the next two seasons, and has a partially-guaranteed year for 2014/15. If the Kings are able to draft a player like Michael Kidd-Gilchrist or Bradley Beal to replace him, it could make sense to amnesty Salmons, their highest-paid player.

Evans, meanwhile, is entering the final season of his rookie contract and will be eligible for a contract extension, but a trade seems at least as likely as an extension. Ailene Voisin of the Sacramento Bee suggested recently that the Kings would "entertain offers" for Evans this summer, and it would definitely make some sense to deal him and move forward by building around DeMarcus Cousins, Marcus Thornton, and this year's first-round pick.

With free agents unlikely to sign in Sacramento and the team's owners unlikely to spend big on outside talent anyway, the Kings' best chance at improving their roster will come via trades and the draft. If Sacramento can find a reasonable offer for Evans and make it through the lottery with a top-five pick, that could be enough to consider the offseason a success.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: New Orleans Hornets

May 4th, 2012 at 3:42pm CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (Pending lottery; 13.7% chance at first overall pick)
  • 1st Round (Pending lottery; 1.1% chance at first overall pick)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary (including likely options): $35,261,200
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary, Cap Holds: $59,363,489
  • Total (not including draft picks): $94,624,689

The best news for Hornets fans this year came in the form of an April announcement that New Orleans Saints owner Tom Benson would be purchasing the city's NBA franchise. As the team heads into the offseason, GM Dell Demps and his staff can make draft preparations, talk trades, and pursue free agents without worrying that NBA commissioner David Stern might decide a move isn't in the organization's best interest. With Benson in place as the owner, making the club look attractive to potential bidders is no longer a concern.

Of course, making the club look attractive to fans is still the long-term goal — Demps and Benson will be looking to build a perennial contender worthy of the new owner's investment, and this offseason represents a important step in that process. The three crucial decisions for the Hornets this summer figure to revolve around the draft, Eric Gordon, and Emeka Okafor.

With two lottery picks in a deep draft, the Hornets are well-positioned to land a pair of talented young players next month. Jumping into the top three would be a bonus, but even at #4 and #10, they could end up doing very well. ESPN.com's David Thorpe recently identified Andre Drummond and John Henson as the two perfect fits for the Hornets' respective picks, and I can't argue with him, especially on Drummond. More than any other team in the lottery, New Orleans is in a good spot to roll the dice on the UConn big man, who's a high-risk choice. The Hornets aren't close to contending, so it makes sense to go for a player with star upside rather than merely a solid contributor, particularly with a second lottery pick to fall back on.

The Hornets will also face a number of free agent decisions, as Gordon, Chris Kaman, Carl Landry, and Marco Belinelli all represent sizable cap holds. Of those players, Gordon is the top priority by far, as the centerpiece of the deal that sent Chris Paul to Los Angeles. Even with questions surrounding Gordon's health and uncertainty about how new ownership values him, I can't imagine the Hornets letting the restricted free agent sign elsewhere. I expect the 23-year-old to sign a long-term deal to remain in New Orleans, even if the club has to slightly overpay to do it.

Assuming they sign Gordon, bring back Ayon, and add a pair of first-round picks, the Hornets won't have much cap room left to pursue free agents. That might not be an issue for a team that isn't exactly a veteran or two from contention and may not feel any pressure to be aggressive on the free agent market. There's a good chance a few small signings using the mid-level or minimum-salary exceptions will be the extent of the Hornets' free agent activity.

If the Hornets do want to clear cap space this summer, there's one obvious way to do it: amnesty Emeka Okafor. Okafor is owed $28MM+ over two more years, and had a disappointing 2011/12 campaign, missing over half the season with injuries while his PPG and RPG averages declined. Still, I'm not sure amnestying him is necessary. With no pressing need for the cap space and a chance to still trade Okafor for something of use, the Hornets would be better off pocketing their amnesty clause for another year, perhaps using it on the center next summer if they have to.

Unlike two of the teams ahead of them in the lottery, the Hornets don't have a John Wall or Kyrie Irving-type star to anchor their roster, but there's some reason to believe they have an outside chance at landing that player in the draft, or, in the case of Gordon, locking him up via free agency. It's unlikely that the Hornets can make the necessary moves to become a playoff contender next season, but drafting well and re-signing Gordon would at least give the team a solid nucleus to build around for the next four or five years.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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