Poll: Which Coach Will Be On The Hot Seat?
The summer is the season of optimism for NBA fans, with draft picks and signings set to fit perfectly and improve teams all over the league–hypothetically. Once the season begins, however, the goodwill can dry up fast. Last year, blockbuster acquisitions in Detroit and Brooklyn had set expectations high for newly hired coaches Maurice Cheeks and Jason Kidd, but both teams struggled out of the gate, placing both coaches on the hot seat. Kidd survived the season and guided the Nets to the playoffs, but the root of conflict survived as well, and Kidd bolted for Milwaukee in a bizarre power struggle. Cheeks was fired in-season, and remains without a coaching job.
Mike Woodson faced constant speculation about his own job, and lasted through the season only to be let go by incoming team president Phil Jackson. Larry Drew bore the brunt of the Kidd move, and Tyrone Corbin was let go by the Jazz, despite his baby-faced roster performing about as well as expected. Mark Jackson led the Warriors to improvement for a second consecutive season, but pushing the Clippers to a Game 7 in the opening round of the playoffs wasn’t enough to salvage his position in Golden State after some turbulence between Jackson, the rest of the coaching staff, and the front office.
In the NBA, very few jobs are ever truly “safe,” unless your last name is Popovich. Let’s look at some of the coaches who could encounter early traces of job insecurity.
1. Winning Enough? Scott Brooks, Kevin McHale, and Frank Vogel. In parts of 13 seasons combined with their current teams, these coaches have only two losing seasons between them. Brooks receives plenty of flack for his in-game strategy and roster management, despite having coached a young Thunder team to a surprise appearance in the 2012 Finals, and regularly orchestrating dominant regular season performances that have been undercut by postseason injuries to Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka. After Oklahoma City’s disappointing series loss to the eventual champions in 2013/14, GM Sam Presti voiced his support for the coach moving forward.
Vogel built a defensive juggernaut that gave the Heat one of its stiffest annual challenges in the playoffs, but Indiana struggled mightily for much of the second half of last season, and the team will suffer this year from the losses of Lance Stephenson and Paul George. The Pacers squelched rumors that the coach could be let go after the team lost in the Eastern Conference Finals for the second consecutive year, but Vogel will be coaching on an expiring contract unless the team grants him an extension in the coming months.
McHale has failed to take the Rockets beyond the first round in his tenure, and expectations are that the team is due to build on its success around James Harden and Dwight Howard. The front office in Houston didn’t do McHale any favors this offseason, allowing mainstays Chandler Parsons, Jeremy Lin, and Omer Asik to depart while striking out on free agent Chris Bosh.
2. First-Year Coaches: David Blatt, Steve Kerr, Derek Fisher, and Quin Snyder. Blatt was signed to coach a team that failed to reach the playoffs last season, but Cleveland has since become a championship contender with the additions of LeBron James and Kevin Love. It’s rare for a first-time head coach to cut his teeth with such enormous expectations. Kerr takes over for a team that envisions a higher ceiling than they had attained with Jackson. Kerr’s involvement in the decision to withhold Klay Thompson from a potential Love trade could come back to haunt him, especially if the star power forward thrives in Cleveland while the shooting guard’s game doesn’t take off under Kerr’s tutelage.
Fisher and Snyder figure to operate with more patient front offices and fan bases, as both were hired to develop players within their systems with an eye toward the future. Of course, “low-pressure” isn’t typical of any coaching job in the New York market, and Fisher has insisted that his team should make the playoffs this season.
3. The Clock Is Ticking: Jacque Vaughn and Brian Shaw. Vaughn has been at the helm for a rebuilding Magic team the last two years, racking up an understandably poor .262 winning percentage. While Orlando is still far from contending, the team has shored up the rotation with veteran additions and has a number of young players on schedule to provide a bigger impact. A season spent at the very bottom of league standings might be unacceptable to Magic brass, especially if the young pieces fail to pop. Shaw took the reigns for one of the Western Conference’s best teams in 2012/13, but injuries and the departure of Andre Iguodala prevented them from reaching the postseason altogether this spring. The West should be no less fierce this season, but the Nuggets have high hopes that Shaw will be working to meet in just his second year on the sidelines.
4. Anything Can Happen: Jason Kidd and Dave Joerger. Both coaches are entering their sophomore seasons as NBA head coaches after having reached the playoffs on the first try. Aside from their teams’ performances, there are strange off-the-court similarities between the two. Kidd exited Brooklyn in the aforementioned stunner, and Joerger appeared destined to leave Memphis amid a series of puzzling revelations about his relationship with Grizzlies owner Robert Pera, before the two eventually hashed out their differences and agreed on a contract extension. Both would appear to have a long leash for the coming season, but the combustible personalities in play have undermined peaceful coaching situations before.
Who do you think will find himself on rocky footing soonest in 2014/15? As we have routinely seen, ongoing success is no guarantee that a coach is in the clear. If you think I’ve failed to mention the most likely name, vote “Other” and leave your choice in the comments.
Which Coach Will Be On The Hot Seat Soonest?
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Scott Brooks 19% (204)
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Kevin McHale 18% (191)
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Frank Vogel 15% (160)
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David Blatt 12% (125)
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Jason Kidd 9% (100)
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Derek Fisher 7% (77)
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Jacque Vaughn 7% (71)
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Brian Shaw 5% (54)
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Steve Kerr 4% (43)
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Other (leave in comments) 1% (14)
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Quin Snyder 1% (13)
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Dave Joerger 1% (12)
Total votes: 1,064
Reggie Jackson On Extension Negotiations, Role
Fourth-year point guard Reggie Jackson spoke to Darnell Mayberry of The Oklahoman about the upcoming season, including his role on the team for 2014/15 and ongoing negotiations for a rookie scale extension with the Thunder. The entire interview is worth the read, and we’ll roundup some of the highlights here.
On wanting to be a starter:
“I don’t think about ever coming off the bench for any team. If that’s the role I’m put in, that’s what I’m put in. But since the day I thought about playing in the NBA, I’ve always been a starter. Everything I’ve thought about, whether it be middle school, high school, kids leagues, I never envisioned coming off the bench. When you think about playing basketball, you see the first five guys get on the floor, and that’s something I’ve always prided myself on being…
It’s very prideful for me. I feel like I’m very talented. I feel like I can lead a team. That’s just how I’ve been raised and that’s just how I’ve always felt. I want to be the guy in charge. I want to be the guy leading the team. The head of the snake. I guess that’s just how I’m encrypted DNA-wise.”
On whether he expects to reach an extension agreement with Oklahoma City this summer:
“We haven’t really talked about it much this summer. I know my representation and the Thunder have been talking. But mostly I haven’t really gotten to talk super much about it. I’ve been busy. I think we’re just trying to figure things out and hopefully we can get a deal done… I’m not sure. I’m always hopeful. I’m hoping for the best, expecting the worst. That’s just how I kind of approach things. I’m just happy and blessed to be able to play basketball another day and wake up another day. Just seeing another day is a blessing. I hope to get things done. But if not, it is what it is. I can’t really dwell on it. I have to go out there and compete. That’s where I am. I have to go out there and enjoy the game and trust that my representation and us sitting down and figuring things out is hopefully going to lead to us getting something done before the deadline.
[It will take] communication. We have to figure out things that we can do on both ends. What we envision for the organization from both ends. I’d like to play a certain way. When it’s all said and done and I hang up my jersey, hang up my shoes, I have many goals that I want to accomplish. So I think it’s going to be about what’s the vision for obtaining those goals from both parts and what’s the vision that we have moving forward… I would love to get a deal done, but if that’s not what happens, that’s not what happens. I can’t necessarily dwell on it and think about that too much. I have to go out there and compete.”
On his attention paid to the paths restricted free agents like Eric Bledsoe, Gordon Hayward, and Chandler Parsons have taken this summer:
“I pay attention to a lot of moves going on in the league. It’s a business. You want to figure out what every team is doing, not necessarily just from a contract standpoint. I want to figure out the landscape of the NBA and what teams are trying to do. What teams are really looking to contend and what’s the landscape and whats going to happen in the league. But I probably have paid attention a little more to [Bledsoe’s] situation.
I definitely factor in all those things. Young players getting paid. Especially with Gordon, who I believe was the class before me, and then Chandler who was in my class. A second-round pick who I’m happy for… You definitely kind of have to weigh yourself on what’s going on around the league. So you have to look at guys around you in similar classes and similar positions to try to get a barometer for what you should probably make. It’s been some groundbreaking deals going on this summer, and I have to take that into account when it comes to trying to get a deal done.”
Western Notes: Walker, Brown, Trade Demands
The West will surely be ultra-competitive again next year, and there could be some shuffling in the top tier. The Rockets have had an underwhelming offseason, while the Thunder and Spurs have had relatively uneventful summers. Meanwhile the Mavericks and Clippers have retooled in the hopes of forming championship contenders. Here’s a look around the conference:
- Henry Walker, formerly known as Bill Walker, is considering a camp offer from the Grizzlies, reports David Pick of Eurobasket.com (all Twitter links). Walker, who has played internationally since spending the 2011/12 season with the Knicks, is also receiving interest from the Kings, Pacers, and Heat.
- Bobby Brown‘s contract with his Chinese team is valued at over $1MM, tweets Pick. There is still no report on how much the NBA buyout clause is for Brown, who most recently worked out for the Lakers, but one at or below the $600K teams can pay outside of the cap would fall in line with that salary.
- In a subscriber-only piece, Brian Schmitz of the Orlando Sentinel wonders which star player could be next to force a trade from their current team, now that Kevin Love‘s situation has been resolved. He pegs Kevin Durant, Anthony Davis, and DeMarcus Cousins as some of the more notable hypothetical candidates.
Northwest Notes: Love, LeBron, Morrow
Earlier today, Utah announced that Toure’ Murry had signed with the team on a multi-year deal. With his pact in tow, the Jazz boast a total of at 18 contracts on their books as training camp approaches. Teams can only roster 15 players once the regular season begins, so Utah will need to decide which guys on partially guaranteed deals are worth keeping around. Here’s tonight’s look at the Northwest Division:
- Kevin Love recently made comments indicating that he spoke to LeBron James about teaming up while still a member of the Wolves, but such an admission won’t allow the league to hit Cleveland with a tampering penalty, as salary cap expert Larry Coon explains on SiriusXM NBA Radio (audio link via SoundCloud).
- After being heavily shopped by the Sixers at last season’s trade deadline, Thaddeus Young now feels like he’s “wanted” as a member of the Wolves, as Marc Narducci of the Inquirer details.
- Although Anthony Morrow isn’t exactly a big name, Susan Bible of Basketball Insiders points out that his presence in Oklahoma City should help bolster the Thunder’s weak shooting. Bible says the decision to bring in the former Pelicans swingman could eventually be considered a great move down the road.
Trade Details: Love, Thabeet, Sefolosha, Dudley
Here is the latest on a handful of recent trades from cap guru Eric Pincus of the Los Angeles Times and Basketball Insiders:
- Pincus reports that the Wolves received a $6.3MM trade exception in the Kevin Love deal, which is the difference between the salaries of Love and Thaddeus Young ($6,308,194 to be exact). It was originally thought to be worth $4,644,503 — the difference between Love’s salary and the combined salaries of Andrew Wiggins and Anthony Bennett — but Pincus indicates that, for Minnesota’s purposes, Love was traded for Young while Wiggins and Bennett were traded for Luc Mbah a Moute and Alexey Shved (Twitter links).
- The Thunder have sent $100K along with Hasheem Thabeet to the Sixers in exchange for a top-55 protected second round draft pick, according to Pincus, who confirms that the deal will award Oklahoma City a $1.25MM trade exception. With Thabeet likely to be cut and Philly nearly certain not to finish as a top-five team next season, the Thunder essentially paid $100K for a $1.25MM trade exception that they’ll hold until August 26th, 2015 (Twitter links here).
- Pincus reminds us that the Thunder also pulled off a similar maneuver when they dealt Thabo Sefolosha to the Hawks last month. In that deal, Oklahoma City sent $550K to Atlanta which netted them a trade exception worth $4.15MM. (Twitter links).
- The Sixers are a likely candidate to take on salary this season via their cap room with cash and draft picks as compensation, Pincus believes. Each team is permitted to send out and receive up to $3.3MM in cash per season, so Philly can still receive up to $3.2MM (Twitter links here).
- The 2017 first-round pick headed from the Clippers to the Bucks in the Jared Dudley deal is lottery protected through 2019, at which time it will become two second-round picks, one for 2020 and the other for 2021, Pincus reports. Of course, as Pincus points out, the Clippers are likely to be a playoff team for the foreseeable future so the pick should be with Milwaukee come 2017 (Twitter links).
- While both deals were officially announced by at least one of the participating teams, Pincus tweets that Dudley still has to pass a physical to go to the Bucks while Thabeet is not required to do so to head to the Sixers.
Thunder Trade Hasheem Thabeet To Sixers
5:07pm: The trade is official, the Thunder have announced via press release. It’s Thabeet and cash headed to Philadelphia with a protected 2015 second-rounder going to Oklahoma City. That pick will probably never change hands, as Slater reported.
4:57pm: Oklahoma City is receiving a second-round pick, but it’s conditional and so heavily protected that Philadelphia is unlikely to ever have to convey it, reports Anthony Slater of The Oklahoman.
3:55pm: The Thunder will deal Hasheem Thabeet to the Sixers, reports Marc Stein of ESPN.com (on Twitter). The Sixers will likely waive Thabeet after the trade becomes official, Stein also hears (Twitter link). Philadelphia will also receive cash, and the Thunder won’t be taking back any salary, so they can create a trade exception worth Thabeet’s $1.25MM salary, Stein adds (via Twitter).
Thabeet’s salary is non-guaranteed, but it’s set to become fully guaranteed by the end of this coming Monday, which helps explain the timing of the move. Thabeet, the No. 2 pick in the 2009 draft, fell out of Oklahoma City’s rotation this past season amid the emergence of rookie Steven Adams. The 27-year-old Thabeet saw action in just 23 games with an average of 8.3 minutes per appearance.
It’d be a little surprising to see Philadelphia wind up with only cash from the transaction, especially given how much Sixers GM Sam Hinkie covets draft picks, so perhaps there’s more to the transaction than is being reported, though that’s just my speculation. Oklahoma City will have to net an asset of some sort in the trade, too. In any case, the move is set to take Oklahoma City down to 15 players, including 14 guaranteed deals and Lance Thomas, who has a non-guaranteed pact.
The 7’3″ Thabeet has never found solid footing in the league after spending three years at the University of Connecticut. The Grizzlies sent him on D-League assignment in his rookie season, a rarity for a player taken so highly in the draft, and they traded him to the Rockets midway through his second season. Houston swapped him to the Blazers a year later, and he signed with the Thunder the following summer. He spent his first season with Oklahoma City as the primary backup center behind Kendrick Perkins, but he lost that job in 2013/14.
Western Notes: Heslip, Marion, Spurs
The NBA season won’t officially start until Tuesday, October 28th, when the Spurs begin their season against the Mavericks. An expert poll over at ESPN.com has picked San Antonio to repeat as NBA champs, with the Cavs coming in second, and the Thunder rounding out the top-three. The Heat were the last franchise to go back-to-back, winning titles in 2012 and 2013, while the Spurs have never accomplished that feat.
Here’s more from the Western Conference:
- The Wolves were impressed with undrafted point guard Brady Heslip‘s performance for their summer league team, according to Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN Twin Cities (Twitter link). Heslip recently changed agents, hiring Bernie Lee, and is attempting to land an NBA training camp invitation, Wolfson adds.
- The Thunder have named Mark Daigneault as the new head coach of their D-League team, reports Joel Brigham of Basketball Insiders. Daigneault spent the last four seasons as an assistant on Billy Donovan‘s staff at Florida, and replaces Darko Rajakivic who accepted a position on Scott Brooks‘ staff with the Thunder. Speaking about the hire, GM Sam Presti said, “Mark has placed a high value on development throughout his career and we feel that he is well aligned with the goals of our organization. His experience at Florida under Coach Donovan has provided him the platform to apply his intelligence and relationship skills to help strengthen the program. We are excited about Mark joining the organization and continuing his professional growth.“
- When Shawn Marion left the Mavericks as a free agent this summer to sign with the Cavaliers, he did so knowing that he would come off the bench and play fewer minutes than he had in Dallas, writes Tim MacMahon of ESPNDallas.com. In regards to Marion leaving, Mavs owner Mark Cuban said, “It’s different when you’re going back to your same team as supposed to going to a new team. I think there’s a different dynamic and different expectation.” Marion placed the opportunity to contend for a championship above monetary and playing time concerns in making his team selection, notes MacMahon.
Chuck Myron contributed to this post.
Western Rumors: Suns, Durant, Jackson, Marion
In spite of predicting that the NBA’s salary cap will approach $80MM in 2016/17, Steve Kyler of Basketball Insiders suggests in his weekly chat the Suns should refuse to give any current member of their core more than $12MM annually. While paying big money to guys like Eric Bledsoe and Goran Dragic would of course limit Phoenix financially, Kyler thinks the bigger reason the Suns should hold out is because of none of the young talent on Phoenix’s roster looks worthy of being paid along the lines of the league’s most skilled. More from out west..
- Kevin Durant said the decision to withdraw from Team USA this summer was “definitely tough,” and the Thunder forward told reporters, including Brian Mahoney of The Associated Press, that he did it because he needed to “take a step back” and have a break this offseason.
- Berry Tramel of The Oklahoman thinks it’s unlikely the Thunder will manage to reach an agreement on an extension with Reggie Jackson this fall. Tramel thinks the rewards of free agency will be enticing to Jackson, who we recently profiled in our Extension Candidate series.
- After five strong seasons and an NBA title with the Mavericks, Shawn Marion is heading to Cleveland this season to join forces with LeBron James. However, Dallas GM Donnie Nelson doesn’t harbor any ill feelings toward the 36-year-old veteran, as Dwain Price of the Star-Telegram reveals in a series of tweets.
Cray Allred contributed to this post.
Central Rumors: Monroe, Wiggins
The Central Division experienced the most turmoil this offseason by far. The Cavs are set to net Kevin Love alongside LeBron James, the Bulls added Pau Gasol and Nikola Mirotic alongside the returning Derrick Rose, and the Pacers lost Lance Stephenson to free agency and Paul George to injury. Here’s a rundown from around the division:
- The Thunder were among the teams in the mix for a sign-and-trade involving Greg Monroe at one point this summer, a source tells Michael Lee of The Washington Post. It’s not entirely clear if the interest originally came from Oklahoma City, the Pistons, Monroe’s camp, or some combination of the three, nor is it certain how far the pursuit of such a deal proceeded, though Lee indicates that the possibility was one that Monroe and Falk pursued.
- Monroe has “nothing against” Stan Van Gundy even though he’s not sold on spending the next several years with the Pistons, as Lee writes in the same piece.
- In a separate piece, Lee asserts that being spurned by James and the Cavs could be the motivation Andrew Wiggins needs to become a truly great player with the Wolves.
Chuck Myron contributed to this post.
Extension Candidate: Reggie Jackson
Thunder fans are experiencing some déjà vu. A guard entering his fourth year with the team, proven as an effective backup and a capable starter, is due for rookie contract extension talks. The player shined in the postseason, helping guide Oklahoma City deep into the playoffs, and is seeking an increased role with the team next season. No, we’re not talking about James Harden; the spotlight is now on Reggie Jackson. At 23, Jackson is a year older than Harden was when the Thunder made a stunning move to trade the bearded star rather than meet his max contract demands. Like Harden, he is a ball-dominant player with a knack for getting to the rim.
While the similarities are notable, there are significant differences that make this situation distinct from the 2012 offseason. Jackson does not have the elite foul-drawing ability or scoring efficiency that Harden has always possessed, and his asking price will presumably be lower. Still, he had per-36 averages of 16.6 points, 5.2 assists, and 4.9 rebounds while fluctuating between a starter and sixth man as Russell Westbrook missed large chunks of the season. His three-point shot was putrid in his first two seasons (below 24% in both) but improved last year, coming close to average (33.9%).
Jackson brings little to the defensive side of the floor, but the Thunder coaching staff has turned players with similar length and speed into solid defenders before. Jackson is a standout free-throw shooter in his own right, and he knocked down a number of clutch freebies in close games last season. Jackson also exploded for a 32-point effort in Game 4 against a stifling Grizzlies defense in the first round of the playoffs, keeping the Thunder from going down 1-3 in and facing a disappointing first-round exit. Jackson’s desire to start has been on the table as a contract consideration since late 2013.
Thus far, GM Sam Presti has played it close to the vest regarding Jackson. When the season closed, Presti said there was no consideration of trading Jackson, but the GM wasn’t optimistic that an extension would be worked out by the October 31st deadline. Jackson’s camp has been quiet as well, with no reports of where either side pegs his value. Two point guards in Phoenix might be instructive in looking at Jackson’s potential market. Isaiah Thomas is a scoring machine who took off in his third year as a pro, fighting his way off the bench in a crowded Sacramento backcourt. He was rewarded with a four-year, $27MM contract this summer. Eric Bledsoe exploded as a starter in his first year with the Suns, but health concerns and Phoenix’s vow to match any offer sheet have kept him from generating anything near the max contract he wants. The Suns’ offer to Bledsoe currently sits at four years and $48MM. My estimation is that Thomas’ lower ceiling, limited more than Jackson’s due to size and age, means his deal is near the low end of what Jackson could secure. Bledsoe’s offer seems to be a price ceiling for Jackson. Again, this is all just my speculation, but I would expect Jackson to fetch between $7MM and $10MM annually.
Aside from Jackson’s value as a player, the Thunder’s financial outlook is different this time around as well. Presti held firm to a near-max offer for Harden because the team wanted to avoid incurring harsh repeater-tax penalties that a true max offer might have triggered. NBA revenue has since boomed, driving the salary cap — and tax threshold — up significantly. In fact, Zach Lowe of Grantland wonders whether the Thunder would have increased their offer to Harden if they had projected as rosy a cap future as the league arrived at. If the Thunder pick up the 2015/16 options for Jeremy Lamb, Perry Jones III, Andre Roberson, and Steven Adams, they will still have at least $10MM in room beneath the tax for that season, and they could conceivably have plenty more room than that if league revenue keeps shooting up.
Of course, the Thunder also have to think beyond that season, as they seek to keep Kevin Durant, Westbrook, and Serge Ibaka around while the rest of the league prepares to snag them away. Locking in Jackson as a significant part of the team’s core would prevent them from adding much in the way of impact players through free agency next year. The early signals are that Oklahoma City is comfortable counting on the young supporting cast that Jackson anchors, built around their established core. The team saw the departures of veterans Thabo Sefolosha, Derek Fisher, and Caron Butler this summer, and have only added Anthony Morrow in free agency.
Outside of Kendrick Perkins‘ contract, the Thunder haven’t overpaid on any long-term contracts, and their resolve in that aspect was proven with the Harden situation. I can’t imagine they would offer Jackson anything they thought was at or above market value; the team believes in its philosophy, and Presti and company would likely feel confident in their ability to influence his restricted free agency in their favor like Phoenix has managed to do with Bledsoe.
Still, Jackson is the most developed of an athletic stable of young players that the Thunder need to support their star trio in chasing a title the next two seasons. My guess is the decision will come down to whether the team envisions Jackson as a good fit next to Westbrook in the starting lineup. The starting shooting guard has yet to be named, with Jackson, Lamb, Morrow, and Roberson all on the table for the spot. If they determine Jackson’s the man for the job, I see the two sides reaching an agreement for an extension this fall. If not, I’ll go with Chuck Myron’s prediction from the Hoops Rumors Rookie Extension Primer: no deal.