Extension Candidate: Grant Williams
This is the sixth installment in our series examining players who are prime candidates for contract extensions. This series will explore the player’s strengths and weaknesses, and will evaluate what a fair deal between the player and his team might look like. We’re continuing today with a look at a power forward who had a breakout third season as a two-way contributor.
Rundown:
The No. 22 overall pick of the 2019 draft after three seasons at Tennessee, Grant Williams had a minor role as a rookie for a Celtics team that nearly reached the NBA Finals, ultimately falling to Miami in the Eastern Conference Finals in six games. In 69 games (15.1 MPG), Williams averaged 3.4 PPG and 2.6 RPG on .412/.250/.722 shooting (.505 true shooting percentage).
In 2020/21, Williams’ second season, he made progress as a shooter, a very important aspect of his role for Boston. His averages – 4.7 PPG and 2.8 RPG on .437/.372/.588 shooting (.546 true) in 63 games (18.1 MPG) – were still fairly modest, but the 12.2% increase in three-point percentage was encouraging.
In year three, Williams emerged as a solid member of Boston’s rotation, averaging 7.8 PPG and 3.6 RPG on a sparkling .475/.411/.905 shooting slash line (.635 true) in 77 games (21 starts, 24.4 MPG).
He had an even bigger playoff role during the Celtics’ run to the Finals, averaging 8.6 PPG and 3.8 RPG on .433/.393/.808 shooting (.599 true) in 24 games (27.3 MPG).
Strengths:
At 6’6” and a listed weight of 236 pounds, Williams has a low center of gravity and is physically very strong (Michael Scotto of HoopsHype was told that Williams was 280 pounds in the playoffs and had dropped to 265 as of October 6). Anyone who watched him (mostly) hold his ground while defending Giannis Antetokounmpo in the post during their second-round series last season can attest to Williams’ strength.
Williams is a solid defender at power forward and can switch at times onto bigger wings and smaller centers. Opponents shot 1.2% worse than their expected field goal percentage in the ‘21/22 regular season with Williams as the closest defender and 4.5% worse than expected in the playoffs, per NBA.com – both above-average marks.
The 23-year-old has improved tremendously as an outside shooter over his three professional seasons, both in terms of volume and efficiency. Nearly 60% of Williams’ shots last season came from behind the arc, up from 45% as a rookie and 51% in year two. He doesn’t exactly look “natural” when he’s shooting, but the fact that he’s become so efficient is a testament to his work ethic and willingness to improve – those are more important factors than natural talent in my opinion, especially for a role player.
Since the Celtics rely so much on stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown for offense, with ball movement the key to finding open looks when they’re inevitably faced with a help defender, the grand majority of Williams’ three-point looks came via catch-and-shoot last season. He converted 1.3 of those 3.1 attempts per game, good for 41.7%, per NBA.com. He also converted an impressive 46.8% of his corner threes in ‘21/22 – an important shot for floor spacing.
Williams isn’t known for his athleticism, but he has good timing for blocking shots — his 2.7% block percentage ranked in the 78th percentile last season, per DunksAndThrees.com. He can also do damage down low on the offensive end, though it was very low volume – he shot 68% at the rim in ‘21/22, which was 84th percentile.
Interestingly, Williams has shown a face-up game and the ability to attack defenders off the dribble a little bit via shot fakes during the preseason. We’ll see if that carries over to the regular season, but it’s an encouraging sign that he’s been working on his game and is self-aware enough to know that he needs to be a little more well-rounded offensively.
Improvement Areas:
While Williams generally does pretty well defending bigger players, he sometimes struggles to stay in front of shiftier guards due to his lack of length and quickness. He also can be susceptible to blow-bys when closing out on shooters due to his lack of foot speed.
Neither of those things are unusual for a power forward, but improving on them would help him stay on the court in more difficult matchups (the Warriors exploited both of those weaknesses rather mercilessly in the Finals, which is one reason why his minutes were reduced to 17.0 per game in that series after averaging 29.7 or more in the three previous rounds).
For a big man, Williams is a below-average rebounder, pulling down just 5.3 boards per 36 minutes last season. His relative lack of size and athleticism hurts in that aspect as well, even though he’s a willing contributor on the boards who chases after loose balls.
His three-point improvement definitely seems legitimate, but a lot of his value on offense is tied to converting his open looks to keep opposing defenses honest, and if he’s off that day he hasn’t provided much else on that end. And as good as his outside shooting was last season, his shot is pretty slow and deliberate, so he needs space to get it off. Adding a reliable pump fake and relocation dribble would help.
I was surprised to learn that Williams’ assist rate was an alarmingly low 6% last season, and his turnover rate was 12%, per DunksAndThrees. His overall assist-to-turnover ratio was only 1.25-to-1, which isn’t awful for a big man, but it’s certainly not good.
The reason those findings were surprising is because Williams has displayed soft touch as a passer and can make plays for others in the limited opportunities he’s given. His handle is a little loose sometimes, but I still expected both figures to be better than they were in ‘21/22.
Conclusion:
Three-and-D players always have value, especially when they can guard multiple positions. In Williams’ case, that’s the three frontcourt spots. As long as he can keep making 40% of his three-pointers, there’s no doubt that he’s going to get paid, it’s just a matter of how much.
It’s difficult to find players to compare Williams to because of his unique build and skill set. Perhaps the closest comps you can find for Williams currently are Jae Crowder and P.J. Tucker, a couple of short, stocky power forwards who provide versatile defense, energy, toughness, and some outside shooting. Both of those players received three-year deals at the non-taxpayer mid-level exception in recent years – for ‘22/23, that would max out at four years and $45,107,000.
Williams is worth more than that, even if he wasn’t a starter on a very good team like those two veterans were last season. For one, he won’t turn 24 years old until November 30, while Crowder is 32 and Tucker is 37. If they were Williams’ age, they would’ve landed bigger paydays.
Secondly, Williams has shown more potential as a finisher and a shooter than his elder counterparts. His .635 true shooting percentage in ‘21/22 was a higher mark than Crowder (.613 in ‘16/17) or Tucker (.593 last season) has ever posted.
Multiple reports have indicated Williams is seeking a deal in the $14-16MM range annually, and Boston has thus far been reluctant to go that high. It seems like the reason for that is more because the Celtics are a taxpaying team that already has multiple players signed to lucrative long-term contracts rather than not valuing Williams.
I can see both sides of the argument here. Paying a bench player who only averaged 7.8 points and 3.6 rebounds in ‘21/22 at least $14MM per season seems like a lot. On the other hand, the skill set he provides is coveted around the league, and replacing him would be very difficult due to financial constraints.
If the two sides are unable to reach an extension, Williams would become a restricted free agent next summer. Boston would have the leverage in that scenario because they can match any offer, and it’s rare for rival teams to sign role players to offer sheets since it ties up cap room for multiple days.
If a theoretical new deal still isn’t signed at that point, Williams could accept his qualifying offer and hit unrestricted free agency in 2024, but he’d potentially lose money in the short-term because the QO would almost certainly be less than the first year of an extension. That might be his best bet for landing a big payday from an opposing team.
Having said that, there’s no indication Williams wants to leave the Celtics, nor that they want to lose him. With Robert Williams injured to start the season, and Danilo Gallinari out for the year with a torn ACL, Grant Williams should have an opportunity for a larger role, and if he puts up big numbers on a title contender, he could substantially increase his value.
Ultimately, I think the low end of his rumored asking price (four years, $56MM) is pretty fair for an extension. It’s a little more than I’d prefer to pay him if I were running the Celtics, but it’s not unreasonable since the salary cap is expected to continually rise over the duration of the deal. If the two sides don’t reach a deal today, it will be interesting to monitor Williams’ performance during the ‘22/23 season to see if he can increase his value even further.
New York Notes: Robinson, Toppin, Grimes, Kokoskov, Sharpe
Knicks center Mitchell Robinson, newly re-signed to a generous four-year, $60MM contract in free agency this summer, has been everything New York could have hoped for — at least, during his team’s preseason run, per Steve Popper of Newsday. Popper notes that, with Robinson on the hardwood, New York was a plus-64 across the club’s four preseason contests.
“I think all aspects of his game, he’s put a lot of work in,” Knicks head coach Tom Thibodeau said. “He’s gotten better. The rebounding, the shot-blocking, he’s getting more comfortable with the ball. The finishing. The pressure on the rim. That set the tone from the start.”
“One thing about Mitch, he’s really special to work with,” Knicks point guard Jalen Brunson said. “He works hard. He’s a great guy off the court. We got to build a lot of chemistry over the past couple of weeks. I think how we’ve built the chemistry off the court, on the court we’re really in sync. So I look forward to kind of staying in that sync with him. He’s special. I just really enjoy his presence off the court, on the court obviously.”
There’s more out of the City That Never Sleeps:
- In some encouraging Knicks health news, young reserves Obi Toppin and Quentin Grimes should be available for New York in time for the team’s season opener on Wednesdayagainst the Grizzlies, writes Zach Braziller of The New York Post. Toppin, dealing with a turned ankle, and Grimes, rehabbing a sore left foot, were held out of practice today, but head coach Tom Thibodeau remains confident they’ll be healthy in time for the first game that counts. “I think they’ll be fine,” Thibodeau said. “This is part of the program. Obi was more precautionary. It was just [that] he tweaked it.”
- New Nets assistant coach Igor Kokoskov has emerged as the team’s point man when it comes to game-planning its offense, according to Net Income of NetsDaily. Brooklyn’s fresh approach on that end of the floor is more open-ended and team-friendly, and is a credit to the input of Kokoskov, per Net Income.
- 6’11” second-year Nets reserve center Day’Ron Sharpe has been making a case for frontcourt rotation minutes with a prolific preseason, reports Peter Botte of The New York Post. The big man out of North Carolina posted averages of 13.0 PPG and 9.0 RPG, in just 21.5 MPG, during Brooklyn’s final two games of its preseason. “I think he looks physically better,” head coach Steve Nash reflected. “I think I’ve told you before we’ve worked really hard with the young guys … and DayDay took a step.”
California Notes: Jackson, Wall, Zubac, Kings, Poole
Clippers head coach Tyronn Lue has claimed that a report indicating that Reggie Jackson had won the L.A. starting point guard gig over John Wall did not come from him, and that he has yet to make a final decision, according to Andrew Greif of The Los Angeles Times. Los Angeles will play its first regular season contest this Thursday.
“Both guys are in a great position, and their mindset is in the right place,” Lue said. “It is about winning. It is not about who’s the starter, who’s the best player. It’s about the right fit and trying to win, and both of those guys are on board with that.”
Here’s more out of California:
- Clippers center Ivica Zubac spoke with Mark Medina of NBA.com for a wide-ranging conversation that touched on the team’s hoped-for title contention this season, its stars’ injury woes, the development of Zubac around the rim, and more. Zubac also gave head coach Tyronn Lue a rave review. “Ty has been around the team and me for a while, even before he became a head coach,” Zubac noted. “He’s been seeing the progress for a while. It’s in big part thanks to him. He’s been pushing us. Last season, he asked me to do some things on the court that he hadn’t asked me to do in a while. He involved me more offensively. I think that was a big part of my progression.”
- Following a rigorous training camp, the Kings opted to retain point guard Matthew Dellavedova, forward Chima Moneke, and power forward KZ Okpala into the regular season. Jason Anderson of The Sacramento Bee breaks down how the new Sacramento additions made the grade. All are currently signed to non-guaranteed deals with the team. “As training camp has gone on, [Moneke] is trending upwards,” head coach Mike Brown said. “I think the initial shock of being in the NBA and the speed and athleticism and all that stuff caught him off guard a little bit, but he belongs on this level and he can help us. I think KZ, too. Both of those guys were two of my first calls, even before I really got the job.” Brown also raved about Dellavedova’s effort on defense. “If Davion [Mitchell] ain’t going hard, he will get embarrassed by Delly… If [De’Aaron] Fox isn’t going hard, he will get embarrassed by Delly. To have a guy like that raises the level of intensity.”
- Warriors reserve guard Jordan Poole signed a four-year contract extension with Golden State worth up to $140MM. Now, new details have emerged about the contract’s various incentives. Anthony Slater of The Athletic unpacks the deal, revealing that – beyond the guaranteed $123MM – Poole will make an extra $1.25MM per year (i.e. $5MM across all four seasons) depending on how far the team gets in the playoffs. He will net an additional $1MM for each year he wins the league MVP award (so a very, very hypothetical total of $4MM), plus $1MM annually per every Defensive Player of the Year award. Considering his skillset, earning either honor even once seems fairly far-fetched. Poole could earn $500K per season should he qualify for an All-NBA team (there are a total of 15 such slots available) and another $500K annually should he qualify for an All-Defensive Team (there are 10 available openings). Slater notes that it is possible Poole grows into being an All-NBA talent, but is skeptical he could ever be an elite defender or named the league MVP.
Hornets Notes: Waived Players, Walker, Season
After being waived by the Hornets, shooting guard LiAngelo Ball (older brother to All-Star Charlotte point guard LaMelo Ball) point guard Jalen Crutcher, small forward Xavier Sneed, and shooting guard Ty-Shon Alexander have an uncertain future. Rod Boone of The Charlotte Observer takes stock of where each player could be headed.
Boone notes that the Hornets possess the G League returning rights for all four players, assuming they clear waivers. Should Ball, Crutcher, Sneed and Alexander elect to remain stateside and play in the G League, they will have to suit up for Charlotte’s NBAGL affiliate club, the Greensboro Swarm.
The 6’5″ Ball, 23, spent the 2021/22 season with the Swarm. In 28 games, he averaged 4.6 PPG and 1.1 RPG in 13.2 MPG. Most intriguingly, he connected on 35.7% of his 3.0 three-point attempts in those games.
There’s more out of Charlotte:
- Now that the Pistons are expected to waive veteran point guard Kemba Walker, it’s certainly a possibility that the Hornets opt to use their final roster spot to sign Walker, who was named to three of his four All-Star teams while playing for Charlotte. Rod Boone of The Charlotte Observer (subscriber-exclusive link) wonders if he could help provide a veteran spark off the bench. The team has 13 players signed to guaranteed contracts. Point guard Dennis Smith Jr. currently occupies the team’s 14th spot on a non-guaranteed deal.
- The Hornets had a fairly lackluster offseason, adding no new free agents and subtracting a lottery pick. The team also fired head coach James Borrego, hired Warriors assistant coach Kenny Atkinson, lost Atkinson after less than a week, and pivoted, frantically bringing back former head coach Steve Clifford. After the Hornets finished with a 43-39 record and made a play-in tournament appearance last year, John Hollinger of The Athletic anticipates a regression in an improved Eastern Conference, predicting in his season preview that Charlotte will finish with a 34-48 record, good for the No. 12 seed in the East.
Grizzlies Sign Brandon Clarke To Four-Year Extension
7:52pm: Memphis has issued a press release confirming Clarke’s extension (Twitter link).
5:34pm: The Grizzlies are signing fourth-year forward/center Brandon Clarke to a four-year, $52MM rookie contract extension, Clarke’s agents Mark Bartelstein and Andy Schiffman inform Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN.
Chris Herrington of The Daily Memphian tweets that he anticipates $52MM is the highest possible salary Clarke could earn, implying that various likely and unlikely incentives could be baked into that figure.
Clarke was selected with the No. 21 pick in the 2019 NBA draft out of Gonzaga. Last season, his third in the league, the 26-year-old remained a reliable athletic reserve for the Western Conference’s No. 2 seed.
Across 64 games in 2021/22, Clarke averaged 10.4 PPG while nailing 64.4% of his field goals, along with 5.3 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.1 blocks and 0.6 steals in just 19.5 MPG.
Woj notes that Clarke finished within the NBA’s top five players in a variety of pertinent departments: paint points, second-chance points, and offensive boards.
Bobby Marks of ESPN adds (Twitter link) that this new deal, once it kicks in, will be pay Clarke 8.6% of the club’s projected 2023/24 available salary money under the league cap.
Memphis has already signed another of its extension-eligible players, veteran starting center Steven Adams, to a two-year, $25.2MM contract extension earlier this offseason.
A third Grizzlies player, 6’7″ swingman Dillon Brooks, has yet to sign a new deal with the Grizzlies. Should Memphis not reach an agreement with Brooks, his contract will expire in the summer of 2023, when he will reach unrestricted free agency. Brooks is currently set to earn $11.4MM this season.
Clarke is the eighth 2019 first-round pick to agree to a rookie scale extension, as our tracker shows. When our Rory Maher previewed Clarke’s case for an extension last month, he estimated a deal in the range of the four-year, $50MM contract Wendell Carter signed with Orlando a year ago.
Southwest Notes: Mavs, Campazzo, Spurs, Rockets, Pelicans
Argentinian point guard Facundo Campazzo has arrived in Dallas, league sources tell veteran NBA reporter Marc Stein (Twitter link). As previous reports indicated and as Stein confirms, Campazzo is on track to sign a one-year contract with the Mavericks after he completes a physical with the team.
The signing will likely become official on Monday or Tuesday, ahead of Dallas’ regular season opener in Phoenix on Wednesday, Stein adds. Because the Mavericks are currently only carrying 14 players on standard contracts, no corresponding roster move will be necessary to sign Campazzo as the team’s 15th man.
Here are a few more notes from around the Southwest:
- While San Antonio’s current players say they’re not thinking about next year’s draft and will be focused on winning games this season, the Spurs figure to be a key player in the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes, with head coach Gregg Popovich acknowledging that the team won’t be a contender this season, per Jeff McDonald of The San Antonio Express-News. “To be a championship program, you have to have a couple superstars on your team,” Popovich said. “That doesn’t exist (here) right now. … It’s just a fact, and to avoid that fact seems kind of senseless to me.”
- With Dejounte Murray no longer in San Antonio, the Spurs may be the “Keldon Johnson show” this season, John Hollinger of The Athletic writes, noting that the team’s options on offense will be limited — especially if veterans Doug McDermott and Josh Richardson are traded before the deadline. Hollinger forecasts a 24-58 finish for the rebuilding Spurs, who currently have five teenagers on their roster.
- Like San Antonio, Houston doesn’t have championship aspiration this season, but the Rockets want to make things hard on their opponents as they focus on player development and growth, says Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle. “There’s a lot of teams around this league that think we’re still in rebuild and we’re still trying to figure things out,” Jae’Sean Tate said. “Our whole mindset is … trying to punch guys in the mouth, try to be the aggressors and I think you … are going to see that this year.”
- Zion Williamson will likely have plenty of different frontcourt partners this season, with Jonas Valanciunas, Larry Nance Jr., Jaxson Hayes, and Willy Hernangomez among the bigs he could play alongside. Will Guillory of The Athletic takes a closer look at how the pieces might fit together for the Pelicans.
E.J. Liddell Signs Two-Way Deal With Pelicans
Rookie forward E.J. Liddell, who tore his right ACL during Summer League this year after being drafted 41st overall out of Ohio State, has signed a two-way contract with the Pelicans, the team announced in a press release.
During a 2021/22 NCAA season in which the 6’7″ forward was named a Third Team All-American, an All-Big Ten First Teamer, and a Big Ten All-Defensive Team honoree, Liddell averaged 19.4 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 2.5 BPG and 2.5 APG for the Buckeyes.
Though he will most likely not be healthy until at least 2023, the 21-year-old will join Dereon Seabron in filling the team’s pair of two-way player contracts heading into the 2022/23 season. Liddell figures to rehab his ACL injury with the Pelicans and the Birmingham Squadron, New Orleans’ G League affiliate.
Looking to capitalize on a promising postseason berth with a newly healthy Zion Williamson, New Orleans is now fielding a team with 15 players signed to its standard roster, plus a pair of two-way players.
Atlantic Notes: Sixers, Raptors, Brunson, Begarin
After converting Michael Foster Jr. to a two-way deal, the Sixers have an opening on their 15-man roster, and it sounds like the team doesn’t plan to fill that opening right away.
“We believe there’s a lot of guys out there that may become available,” Sixers head coach Doc Rivers said (Twitter link via Keith Pompey of The Philadelphia Inquirer). “We wanted to make sure we had a spot.”
Even if Philadelphia doesn’t end up finding a free agent or trade target to fill that 15th spot anytime soon, keeping it open will allow the team to maximize its financial flexibility. The Sixers are a few million dollars below their hard cap and have a chance to duck out of luxury tax territory altogether if they trim a little salary during the season.
Here’s more from around the Atlantic:
- The chances of Fred VanVleet or Pascal Siakam signing a contract extension with the Raptors before the regular season begins appear slim, according to Doug Smith of The Toronto Star (Twitter link). VanVleet could still negotiate an in-season extension if he turns down his 2023/24 player option, whereas Siakam would be ineligible to sign an extension until next summer if he doesn’t receive one by opening night.
- In a full story for The Toronto Star, Smith writes that Justin Champagnie earned the Raptors‘ 15th roster spot almost by default. Champagnie was sidelined for most of the preseason due to a hip injury, but the other challengers – D.J. Wilson, Josh Jackson, and Gabe Brown – didn’t do much in training camp or the preseason to stand out and seize the final regular season roster spot.
- Newly added free agent point guard Jalen Brunson has been everything the Knicks could’ve hoped for so far, according to Zach Braziller of The New York Post, who writes that Brunson’s selfless play seemed to be rubbing off on the other starters during the preseason. “It’s clear as day the impact he’s had on the team,” head coach Tom Thibodeau said.
- Former NBA assistant Will Weaver, who is now coaching Paris Basketball in France, loves what he has seen from Celtics draft-and-stash prospect Juhann Begarin so far this fall, according to Johnny Askounis of Eurohoops. “We all witnessed it today,” Weaver said on Sunday after Begarin scored 28 points in a loss to AS Monaco. “Juhann Begarin is an NBA player. He can make an impact in Boston.” The Celtics drafted Begarin with the 45th overall pick in 2021 and continue to hold his NBA rights.
Isaiah Joe Signs With Thunder
OCTOBER 16: The Thunder have officially signed Joe, the team announced in a press release. Oklahoma City won’t have to finalize its cuts until Monday and has a full 20-man roster for now.
OCTOBER 15: The Thunder are finalizing a multi-year contract with Isaiah Joe, tweets Shams Charania of The Athletic.
Swingman David Nwaba will be among the players waived to make room on the roster, sources tell Charania (Twitter link).
Joe cleared waivers earlier today after being released Thursday by the Sixers, who selected him with the 49th pick in the 2020 draft. The 23-year-old shooting guard spent the past two years in Philadelphia and averaged 3.6 points and 1.0 rebounds in 55 games last season.
Nwaba was acquired from the Rockets in an eight-player trade in September after playing 46 games for Houston last season. Trey Burke and Marquese Chriss remain on Oklahoma City’s roster, but with more cuts remaining it’s possible that all eight players in that deal will end up on waivers.
Raptors Sign, Waive Saben Lee
The Raptors have signed and subsequently waived free agent guard Saben Lee, the team announced today.
The 38th overall pick in the 2020 draft, Lee spent his first two NBA seasons with the Pistons, first on a two-way contract and then on a standard deal. He appeared in 85 total games for the team, averaging 5.6 points, 2.9 assists, and 2.4 rebounds in 16.3 minutes per contest, with a shooting line of .434/.265/.731.
Lee was traded from Detroit to Utah last month in the Bojan Bogdanovic deal and was subsequently released by the Jazz. After clearing waivers, he signed a training camp contract with the Suns on Tuesday, but his stint in Phoenix was short-lived — he was cut by the team on Thursday.
Despite the fact that he spent time on three rosters leading up to the 2022/23 season, Lee’s G League rights weren’t held by any team until he signed with the Raptors, his fourth club of the last month. Toronto signed Lee to an Exhibit 10 contract that will ensure he receives a bonus worth up to $50K if he spends at least 60 days with the Raptors 905.
The Raptors didn’t have to make a corresponding roster move to make room for Lee, since the 15-man limit still won’t apply until after Monday’s cut-down deadline. Since Lee won’t clear waivers until Tuesday, Toronto will be on the hook for one day’s worth of dead money for him — that portion of prorated salary figures to be worth $10,552.