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Offseason Outlook: Portland Trail Blazers

May 16th, 2012 at 1:15pm CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

LaMarcus Aldridge ($14,000,000)
Wesley Matthews ($6,505,320)
Luke Babbitt ($1,892,280)
Elliot Williams ($1,442,880)
Nolan Smith ($1,365,720)
Kurt Thomas ($1,352,181)

Options

Jamal Crawford ($5,225,000, Player)
Shawne Williams ($3,135,000, Player)

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

None

Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Raymond Felton ($9,828,000)
Hasheem Thabeet ($6,471,183)
J.J. Hickson ($5,886,343)
Jonny Flynn ($5,776,040)
Nicolas Batum ($5,388,413)
Joel Przybilla ($854,389)
Craig Smith ($854,389)

Draft Picks

1st Round (Nets' top-three-protected pick, pending lottery; 74.7% chance to acquire pick)
1st Round (Pending lottery; 0.8% chance at first overall pick)
2nd Round (40th overall)
2nd Round (41st overall)

Cap Outlook

Guaranteed Salary (including likely options): $29,693,381
Non-Guaranteed Salary (including unlikely options), Cap Holds: $40,283,757
Total (not including draft picks): $69,977,183

The Trail Blazers will be building from the ground up this offseason, both on and off the court. The team is currently in the midst of searching for its new general manager, who in turn will likely hire a new head coach shortly thereafter. And if that wasn't enough, the Blazers only have six players on guaranteed contracts for next year, including four guys making less than $2MM. Armed with plenty of cap space, the new GM will face an interesting challenge upon taking the job.

Although the Blazers have only about $26MM committed to their six guaranteed players, that doesn't mean the club will have $30MM+ in cap room at its disposal. Shawne Williams ($3.14MM) is a sure bet to opt into the final year of his contract. And even if the team renounces Jamal Crawford, J.J. Hickson, and all its other non-Nicolas Batum free agents, Batum's cap hold adds $5.39MM. If Portland holds steady in the lottery and picks sixth and 11th overall, that'll tack on another $4.33MM in rookie contracts. Throw in a few minimum-salary cap holds or rookies to fill out the roster, and the Blazers will have $40MM+ on their books before spending a single cent in free agency.

Still, with more than $17MM in cap room at their disposal, the Blazers are expected to be very active on the free agent market. A max or near-max offer to Deron Williams is a possibility, though I'd be very surprised if he landed in Portland. The Blazers could be strong contenders for any one of the second-tier of free agents though. With holes at point guard and center, the Blazers will probably at least kick the tires on players like Steve Nash, Goran Dragic, D.J. Augustin, Chris Kaman, Roy Hibbert, and Spencer Hawes.

One complication in the Blazers' pursuit of free agents is the status of their own restricted free agent, Nicolas Batum. Batum's agent recently indicated that he and his client won't wait around for Portland to use its cap space, but rather will sign the first lucrative offer sheet they receive. What does this mean for the Blazers? Well, if Batum signs an offer with another team worth $10MM annually, Portland has just three days to match the offer and retain the 23-year-old. And if the Blazers were to match the offer, Batum's cap hit would rise from $5.39MM to $10MM, reducing the Blazers' spending room from $17MM+ to under $13MM.

Even with that reduced cap flexibility, the Blazers should still be able to land a major free agent, perhaps one of the names I mentioned above. But if the team isn't in love with a particular free agent, or has concerns about recruiting players to Portland, the trade market is another option. Because they'll likely have a pair of lottery picks, the Blazers are in a great position to send one of them to a rebuilding team in exchange for a veteran contributor. The club could also take advantage of its cap space by taking on a veteran's salary in a trade. For instance, if the Blazers miss out on top free agent point guards like Williams and Nash, the Raptors would probably be all ears if Portland were to inquire on Jose Calderon and his $10MM+ salary.

The constant turnover in recent years suggests the Blazers' general manager job may not be a safe or desirable position, but the team's assets should certainly appeal to the new GM. Despite losing potential franchise cornerstones like Greg Oden and Brandon Roy to injuries, the Blazers have an All-Star to build around in LaMarcus Aldridge. With Batum expected to be retained, a pair of high draft picks in hand, and room under the cap to maneouever, the Blazers are in pretty good position to return to the postseason in the not-so-distant future.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

Blazers Notes: GM, Drew, Freeland, Claver, Batum

May 16th, 2012 at 8:42am CST by Luke Adams

Let's follow up on Tuesday's Trail Blazers items with another round of updates today:

The Blazers have identified two or three more candidates for their general manager opening that they hope to interview soon, writes Kerry Eggers of the Portland Tribune. President Larry Miller says he hopes to have a "couple more" candidates meet with owner Paul Allen within the next two weeks or so, at which point the team may be ready to make a decision.
Eggers hears that Portland is having its GM hopefuls complete a written psychological test to establish leadership qualities. "I’ll just say it’s pretty extensive," Miller says. "We try to do as much due diligence as possible."
Larry Drew of the Hawks is a possibility to be the Blazers' next head coach, according to Eggers. "Word is" Drew may not have his option picked up by the Hawks after he failed to lead Atlanta past the first round, says Eggers.
Acting GM Chad Buchanan expects buyouts for former Blazers draft picks Joel Freeland and Victor Claver to be low enough that there shouldn't be an issue bringing them overseas: "We’ve had talks with both players and their parties, and we’re hopeful we can get something worked out."
Dave Deckard of Blazer's Edge takes an in-depth look at Nicolas Batum's impact on Portland's cap, and how it would affect the team if he signed an offer sheet early.

NBPA Releases Statement On Bird Rights Issues

May 15th, 2012 at 10:20pm CST by Daniel Seco

Billy Hunter, the executive director of the NBA players' association, released a statement this evening addressing free agency issues involving J.J. Hickson, Chauncey Billups, Jeremy Lin and Steve Novak, reports USA Today's J. Michael Falgoust (via Twitter). All four players are hoping that an arbitrator will allow them to keep valuable rights as they hit free agency this summer.

“Bird and Early Bird rights are among the most valuable rights that players have by a player to select a team through free agency. We will ask the arbitrator to resolve this dispute on an expedited basis and prior to the commencement of free agency."

By allowing these players Bird and Early Bird rights, teams will be able to go above the salary cap to retain their own players. This directly impacts the Trail Blazers (Hickson), Clippers (Billups) and Knicks (Lin and Novak). Hoops Rumors writer Chuck Myron broke down the situation in great detail earlier this week.

Blazers Notes: Allen, General Manager, Batum

May 15th, 2012 at 4:53pm CST by Luke Adams

A few Tuesday afternoon updates out of Portland….

Trail Blazers owner Paul Allen has definitively told commissioner David Stern not to send him prospective buyers, Stern tells Jason Quick of the Oregonian (Twitter link). "My guess is that Paul is going to own [the Blazers] for many years to come," Stern said (Twitter link).
The Blazers hope to have at least three candidates for their GM opening meet with Allen before making a decision, team president Larry Miller tells Chris Haynes of CSNNW.com.
In a piece for The Oregonian, a number of Blazers scribes debate what the team will do with restricted free agent Nicolas Batum this offseason. The consensus is that Portland will spend what it takes to retain the young forward.
Earlier today, we heard that Batum won't wait around to accomodate other Blazers' roster moves if he and his agent get an offer sheet they like.

Batum Will Sign First Lucrative Offer Sheet

May 15th, 2012 at 10:49am CST by Luke Adams

The Trail Blazers will have a good deal of cap space at their disposal this summer, and were hoping to spend most of it on free agents before shifting their focus to restricted free agent Nicolas Batum. However, according to agent Bouna Ndiaye, Batum won't necessarily hold off on deals to accommodate the Blazers.

"The first good offer we get, we're going with that," Batum's agent told Chris Haynes of CSNNW.com. "We're not waiting for anything."

Depending on which options are exercised and which free agents are renounced, the Blazers could have up to about $20MM in cap space this summer. Because the team holds Batum's Bird rights, Portland would be able to sign free agents using that space, then go over the cap to re-sign Batum. If Batum signs an offer sheet with another team though, the Blazers will only have three days to match the offer.

Batum's cap hold when the offseason begins will be about $5.39MM, 250% of his prior salary, but he's expected to receive offers with an annual salary that exceeds that amount. If a club were to sign Batum to an offer sheet worth $10MM annually, the forward's free agent amount would rise from $5.39MM to $10MM, limiting the Blazers' cap flexibility.

Union Seeks Ruling On Bird Rights, Waiver Claims

May 14th, 2012 at 5:48pm CST by Chuck Myron

The player's union is challenging the NBA's declaration earlier this year that players who are claimed off waivers lose their Bird rights, Howard Beck of The New York Times reports. The union is seeking an arbitrator's ruling by July 1, which would have significant impact for several free agents and their teams.

If the union is successful with their challenge, it will be easier for many of the teams who claimed players off waivers this year to re-sign their players. The most prominent examples are the Knicks with Jeremy Lin and Steve Novak, the Clippers and Chauncey Billups, and the Blazers and J.J. Hickson. All of those players were claimed off waivers this season and are at the end of their contracts. If the union's challenge is successful, the teams will be allowed to retain those players using either Early Bird, in the case of Lin and Novak, or full Bird rights, as with Billups and Hickson. There were an unusually high number of players claimed off waivers this year, but the other four players on that list were either waived for a second time this season without being claimed, or have contracts in place for next year.

The league clarified its interpretation of the rule earlier this year, shortly after Lin became a sensation for the Knicks. It cited a clause in the collective bargaining agreement that said players lose their Bird rights when they're waived, regardless of whether a team claims them. The union contends that because everything else about a player's contract remains intact if he's claimed off waivers, the Bird rights should remain as well. Bird rights are tied to the number of years a player spends with a team. He must have finished at least two seasons with a team to have Early Bird rights and three for full Bird rights. Beck says that the union's case also compares a waiver transfer to a trade, arguing that because Bird rights are retained in trades, when players are sent to another team against their will, the same should be true when they're waived and claimed, also against their will.

The union and the league must select an arbitrator before the matter can proceed. Since, as Beck writes, much of the union's case centers around the spirit of the law, and the league is going off specific language in the CBA, it seems unlikely the arbitrator will rule in the union's favor. Still, it will be interesting to see how the pending case will affect teams as they prepare for the draft, which takes place three days before the date by which the arbitrator has been asked to rule.

Poll: Where Will Steve Nash End Up?

May 13th, 2012 at 8:35pm CST by Sean Highkin

One of the most high-profile players to hit free agency this summer will be Phoenix Suns point guard Steve Nash. The 38-year-old continues to express interest in returning to the Suns, although there is heavy speculation that he will instead sign with a contender such as the Heat. He’s also been linked to the Blazers, Knicks, and Raptors in various scenarios. Where do you think Nash will play in 2012/13?

Where Will Steve Nash Play In 2012/13?

Miami 25.19% (304 votes)

New York 22.87% (276 votes)

Toronto 18.14% (219 votes)

Phoenix 15.58% (188 votes)

Other 13.84% (167 votes)

Portland 4.39% (53 votes)

Total Votes: 1,207

Odds & Ends: Clippers, Celtics, Oden, Trail Blazers

May 13th, 2012 at 3:56pm CST by Michael Pina

Writing for Spurs Nation, Tim Griffin asks whether or not the Spurs should take a long, hard look at free agent Greg Oden once he recovers from his third microfracture knee surgery in 2013.

With his team getting only one day of rest in between the first four games of their first round series against the Sixers, Doc Rivers will give his team the day off on Sunday, and most likely throughout the series, depending on how it goes, according to ESPNBoston.com's Chris Forsberg.
After defeating the Grizzlies in their Game 7 showdown earlier today, the Clippers are primed for a tough match-up with the Spurs, writes USA Today's J. Michael Falgoust.
CSNNW.com's Dwight Jaynes takes a look at Paul Allen's current situation as owner of the Trail Blazers, and whether or not a possible sale could be in the near future.

Odds & Ends: Williams, Lorbek, Thunder

May 11th, 2012 at 7:16pm CST by Alex Lee

With the Grizzlies looking to stay alive in Los Angeles against the Clippers tonight, it sounds like Chris Paul and Blake Griffin will play. Here are some links from around the league as we wait for that contest to get underway:

While we don't yet know who will be the Trail Blazers' new general manager or head coach, we do know who will not be their assistant coach. Chris Haynes from CSNNW.com reports that the team will not renew Buck Williams' deal, as they will let the new head coach choose his own staff.
Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress tweets that the Spurs signing 6-foot-10 center Erazem Lorbek is "very close to being a done deal." The Spurs acquired the rights to Lorbek via a 2011 draft day trade with the Pacers for George Hill. The Spurs figure to be desperate for size this summer, and bringing Lorbek over from the Spanish League could prove pivotal.
HOOPSWORLD's Tommy Beer gives his take on a question we posed several weeks ago: Long term, should the Thunder pair Serge Ibaka or James Harden with their already-dynamic duo of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook? Ideally Oklahoma City would like to keep both promising youngsters, but given their emergence as impact players that doesn't seem likely.

Trail Blazers Interested In Hawks’ GM Rick Sund

May 11th, 2012 at 9:28am CST by Luke Adams

According to Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports, two frontrunners have emerged for the Trail Blazers' general manager opening: Jeff Bower and David Morway. However, those aren't the only candidates still in the running for the position. Chris Broussard of ESPN.com reports that the Blazers are also eyeing Hawks GM Rick Sund.

According to Broussard, the Blazers requested permission to speak to Sund, but were turned down by the Hawks, who preferred to wait until the season was over. After being eliminated from the playoffs by Boston last night, the Hawks will likely allow Sund to meet with Portland. Still, it's not clear how serious the Blazers' interest is. According to Jason Quick of the Oregonian (via Twitter), Sund is on the team's radar but not a primary target.

Sund is in the last year of his contract in Atlanta, and while the team has attempted to initiate extension talks, the GM has insisted on keeping his options open, says Broussard.