Southwest Notes: Holiday, Messina, Chandler

Pelicans guard Jrue Holiday underwent successful surgery on Wednesday to remove a previously implanted screw from his right leg, the team announced. No timetable was announced for when Holiday could resume basketball activities. The 24-year-old appeared in 40 games this past season for New Orleans, averaging 14.8 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 6.9 assists in 32.6 minutes per contest.

Here’s more from the Southwest Division:

  • Spurs assistant Ettore Messina is still interested in becoming an NBA head coach, Dan McCarney of The San Antonio Express-News writes. “I am seriously thinking about that but I’d ask first [coach] Gregg Popovich and [GM] R.C. Buford for advice,” Messina said. “At the same time I am very happy with the Spurs. I have two years left on my contract with the Spurs. Maybe I finish my contract and I will go back home peacefully.” Messina’s best shot to snag a head coaching position may be to hang on in San Antonio as an assistant until Popovich retires, and then take over the team, McCarney opines.
  • Tyson Chandler might be the most attractive asset the Mavericks could pitch to prospective free agent targets, opines Kevin Sherrington of The Dallas Morning News in his weekly mailbag. Of course, Dallas will still need to make a decision regarding the 32-year-old big man first. Chandler will be an unrestricted free agent this offseason, and with the team reportedly interested in signing fellow free agents DeAndre Jordan and LaMarcus Aldridge, there likely won’t be room under the salary cap for all three in Dallas.
  • Pelicans guard Eric Gordon still hasn’t made a decision regarding his player option for 2015/16 worth $15,514,031, John Reid of The Times Picayune writes. But the 26-year-old does believe that New Orleans has a bright future as a franchise, Reid adds. ”I just believe when you think about winning, people do things and think positive,” Gordon said. ”I’ve just tried to get healthy, do the things that I can do to help this team. The talent is here, it’s all about us being healthy and playing together.We can only get better at this point. It’s all about guys staying on task and getting healthy. I think we can be really good.

Offseason Outlook: San Antonio Spurs

Guaranteed Contracts

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Options

  • None

Restricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

  • Kawhi Leonard ($7,235,148) — $4,433,683 qualifying offer
  • Cory Joseph ($5,058,153) — $3,034,892 qualifying offer
  • Aron Baynes ($3,946,300) — $2,596,250 qualifying offer

Unrestricted Free Agents/Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (26th overall)
  • 2nd Round (55th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $34,159,326
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $1,185,784
  • Options: $0
  • Cap Holds: $54,332,375
  • Total: $89,677,485

It seems like the Spurs have been competing in the Finals or Western Conference Finals every season since Tim Duncan arrived back in 1997/98, but there were three times before this year when Duncan’s Spurs lost in the first round. It’s the second one that’s perhaps most instructive. The 2008/09 Spurs managed to go 54-28 in the regular season with Manu Ginobili around for only 44 of those games and none in the playoffs. They fell in five games to the sixth-seeded Mavs in the first round, and in the summer that followed, San Antonio signed Richard Jefferson to a four-year deal worth nearly $39MM. The Spurs put up their worst record of the Duncan era the next season and grew to regret their rare signing of a significant free agent.

February 20, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; San Antonio Spurs forward Tim Duncan (21) looks on during the second quarter against the Golden State Warriors at Oracle Arena. The Warriors defeated the Spurs 110-99. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Now, it appears the Spurs are plotting an even more serious foray into the free agent market, having reportedly made Marc Gasol their top target most of this season and more recently developed apparent mutual interest in LaMarcus Aldridge. The dynamics are somewhat different now than they were in 2009, since Duncan and Ginobili are six years older and that much closer to the end. Ginobili suggested this week that he’s contemplating retirement more seriously than ever, and that his decision will hinge on Duncan’s. Both are set for free agency this summer, ostensibly making it that much easier for them to say goodbye to the NBA. Still, there were questions even in 2009 about how much longer either of them would last, or at least remain productive, and both were integral parts of San Antonio’s fifth championship in 2014, when Jefferson was already long gone.

Duncan and Ginobili — and Tony Parker, who turns 33 this month — won’t be around forever, but it wasn’t a free agent signing that took the Spurs from two first-round ousters in three years back onto the champion’s podium. It’s chiefly the shrewd acquisition of the draft rights to Kawhi Leonard in exchange for valued role player George Hill that put the Spurs back in title contention, though no one would have known it at the time of the trade in 2011.

A run at free agency this year has been in the works awhile. Spurs coach/president Gregg Popovich more or less acknowledged that this week in his end-of-season press conference, saying that he, GM R.C. Buford and company put this group together with the idea that this summer would represent an opportunity to make key decisions. San Antonio would be entering the offseason with even more uncertainty if Parker hadn’t signed a deal last summer to extend his contract, which was to have expired this year. He’s one of the few Spurs virtually guaranteed to return, and Leonard is, too, even though he’s about to enter restricted free agency. That Leonard didn’t sign an extension of his own in the fall has as much to do with the utility of keeping his cap hold small as anything else, and he reportedly has no plans to seek offer sheets. Even if he did, San Antonio would be expected to match, and as it is, it appears Leonard is destined to continue growing into the centerpiece of the Spurs.

The challenge for Popovich and Buford is in how to surround the Defensive Player of the Year with the talent necessary to keep the Spurs in the title hunt for next season and for years to come. It’ll require some cap gymnastics this summer. If Duncan and Ginobili retire, the Spurs could renounce their rights as well as the rights to every other free agent except Leonard, release Reggie Williams and his non-guaranteed contract, and take a draft-and-stash prospect at No. 26 and get him to agree in writing not to sign in 2015/16. That would leave the Spurs with $44,545,032 against the cap, a total that consists of the team’s guaranteed salary commitments, Leonard’s cap hold, and six additional cap holds equal to the rookie minimum salary that account for open roster spots. The cap is projected to come in at $67.1MM, so that would leave $22,554,968, enough to sign just about any free agent to a max deal, according to our max-salary approximations. There would be roughly $3.5MM worth of breathing room between the max for Aldridge and Gasol, who fall in the 30% max tier, and the hilt of San Antonio’s capacity to clear cap room without a trade.

Of course, the Spurs might like to draft someone who can contribute immediately, or at least be a part of the roster next season, and Duncan and Ginobili might want to come back at more than the minimum salary. Those hypotheticals make the summer ahead especially unpredictable. It’s quite conceivable that Duncan and Ginobili have already signaled to the Spurs what they’d like to receive on their next deals if they were to play again. The cheap three-year, $25MM contract that Dirk Nowitzki signed with the Mavs last summer perhaps sets the bar for Duncan, though it’s tougher to find an analogy for Ginobili. A deal with a starting salary in the range of the full $5.464MM mid-level exception would allow the Argentinian legend a concession to the only NBA franchise he’s known without forcing him to play for a pittance, though that’s only my speculation. Reasonable deals for Duncan and Ginobili such as those would approach a combined total of $14MM for next season. That would knock the Spurs out of the hunt for any sort of marquee free agent unless they can find trade partners willing to take on some combination of Tiago Splitter, Boris Diaw, Patty Mills and Kyle Anderson without giving up salary in return.

None of this accounts for Danny Green, either. He was playing in the D-League when the Spurs signed him in March of 2011, and little more than four years later he’s a sought-after “three-and-D” type whom at least one executive wouldn’t mind paying $6MM a year, as Michael Scotto of SheridanHoops reported. It wouldn’t be altogether shocking for the soon-to-be 28-year-old who’s shot 42.3% over his four full seasons as a Spur to command more than that. No one would pass up a star for him, but he’s been an indelible part of the fabric as a starter on four straight title-contending rosters.

Marco Belinelli has played nearly as many minutes as Green over the past four regular seasons, and he’s another sharpshooting weapon who can spread the floor in San Antonio’s intricate offense. His two finest defensive seasons have come in a Spurs uniform, as Basketball-Reference’s Defensive Box Plus/Minus data shows, though he wasn’t as sharp on either end of the court this year as he was in 2013/14, and he saw his fewest minutes per game since 2009/10. He’ll turn 30 next March, and unless he, too, wants to make a sacrifice and perhaps even take the minimum to stay with the Spurs, an end to his tenure in San Antonio seems a decent bet.

Perhaps a more difficult choice revolves around Cory Joseph. Other teams appear to be circling the waters for the point guard who capably handled the primary backup duties early this season while Mills recovered from shoulder surgery. The Spurs have the power to match competing bids for Joseph, but only if they tender a qualifying offer of more than $3MM. That would be a burdensome price to pay for a third-stringer if he were to simply accept that qualifying offer. Making Joseph a restricted free agent and retaining his rights would make more sense if the team trades Mills, though Mills’ salary for next season isn’t much more than the value of Joseph’s qualifying offer. So, there’s little sense in trading Mills to clear cap room if the Spurs intend to make Joseph a restricted free agent.

A max deal is waiting for Leonard, but Duncan and Ginobili hold the keys to the San Antonio summer, a status they’ve earned in spades. Retire, and the Spurs will have the capacity to sign a top free agent target without trading anyone. Come back, and other key Spurs will have to go if a major name is to join the team. San Antonio’s tradition of winning has made the club attractive to some of the best free agents in this year’s class. Still, given the Jefferson fiasco, it’s worth wondering if the Spurs would prefer instead to trade for the next Leonard, a young talent they could mold to their system from the start, rather than risk disrupting their culture by adding a star who would demand a prominent place in the team’s hierarchy. Finding gems like Leonard is by no means easy, and few teams would have even a moment’s hesitation if someone like Aldridge or Gasol came calling. But the Spurs wouldn’t be who they are if they hadn’t outsmarted the competition and made unconventional choices. Another surprise for the rest of the league may soon be on its way from Alamo country.

Cap Footnotes

1 — See our glossary entry on cap holds for an explanation why these players technically remain on the books.
2 — The Spurs drafted Jean-Charles 28th overall in 2013 but have yet to sign him. San Antonio can keep his draft rights but remove his cap hold from its books if he and the team produce a written agreement that he won’t sign during the 2015/16 season.

The Basketball Insiders Salary Pages were used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Southwest Notes: Smith, Ginobili, Gasol

Josh Smith has found contentment in Houston after enduring much criticism elsewhere, and the Rockets share that feeling of satisfaction with the partnership, as Grantland’s Jonathan Abrams examines. There’s mutual interest between Smith, who hits free agency again this summer, and GM Daryl Morey in a new deal, as Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports reported last month, and Morey made it clear to Abrams that he values the 29-year-old.

“I’m not sure what we’d do without him,” Morey added. “He’s been critical to getting us where we are right now.”

Houston will have Smith’s Non-Bird rights to give him a 20% raise on the $2.077MM salary he signed for via the Biannual Exception in December. Here’s more from around the Southwest Division:

  • Manu Ginobili suggested that he’s never pondered retirement quite so seriously before and said that Tim Duncan‘s decision about whether to play again next season will affect his own, as the swingman wrote for La Nacion’s Canchallena.com and as Dan McCarney of the San Antonio Express-News translates. In any case, Ginobili, whose contract with the Spurs expires this summer, said he’ll take the rest of the month to decide whether to return.
  • Concerns about whether Ginobili, Duncan and Gregg Popovich would remain over the course of a three-year deal were in Pau Gasol‘s head when he decided against signing with the Spurs, as Ramona Shelburne of ESPN.com writes in a lengthy piece on the Bulls, whom Gasol chose instead.
  • Dirk Nowitzki confirmed that there was no vote that took place when the Mavs decided to divvy up playoff shares without giving one to Rajon Rondo, as he said on KTCK-AM this week (transcription via the Dallas Morning News). “No, we actually didn’t vote. It was just the guys who were there that day got a playoff share,” Nowitzki said. “What we usually do is give a lot of weight to the guys that work for you all season long; the locker room guys, the equipment guys, the trainers, the massage guys [or] whoever you feel helped you get through the season. We usually divide it up and then give them a lot of money. I think that got blown out of proportion. It’s not like it was that much money. I don’t think Rondo would have cared either way.”

Western Notes: Brooks, Dumars, Bonner, Draft

The Nuggets are intensifying their search for a new coach this week after having spent the past few weeks focused on scouting and the draft, reports Christopher Dempsey of The Denver Post. They’ll likely chat with former Thunder coach Scott Brooks, among others, Dempsey writes amid a mailbag column, though it’s unclear if he’ll receive a formal interview. The hiring process is expected to last most if not all of May and GM Tim Connelly will collaborate with team president Josh Kroenke, son of owner Stan Kroenke, on the decision, as Dempsey details in his first piece. There’s more on the Nuggets amid the latest from around the Western Conference:

  • New rumors have surfaced suggesting that the possibility of the Pelicans hiring Joe Dumars remains in play for what would be a supervisory role above GM Dell Demps, Grantland’s Zach Lowe writes. Bleacher Report’s Ric Bucher first linked the former Pistons exec to New Orleans in January.
  • Jeff McDonald of the San Antonio Express-News lists Matt Bonner among the Spurs contemplating retirement. Bonner, who turned 35 last month, signed a one-year deal for the minimum to return to San Antonio last summer.
  • Dempsey believes that if Nuggets end up with the No. 7 pick, their likeliest first-round position as the lottery odds show, they’d try to trade it for a pick higher in the order or attempt to deal for a second top-seven pick, as the Post scribe writes in the mailbag column linked above.
  • Former Michigan State swingman Russell Byrd will be among the draft prospects at a workout the Jazz will hold Wednesday, sources tell Michael Scotto of SheridanHoops (Twitter link). Byrd is unlisted in the rankings that Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress and Chad Ford of ESPN.com compile.

Spurs Rumors: Green, Splitter, Popovich

The champs from last year are done after round one, though the Spurs were the most accomplished team this year among the last four teams standing in 2013/14. The Heat, Pacers and Thunder, the other 2014 conference finalists, all failed to make the playoffs. That’s of cold comfort to San Antonio for now, though, and here’s more as the Spurs pick up the pieces:

  • Re-signing Danny Green is a priority for the Spurs, writes Jeff McDonald of the San Antonio Express-News, though Green, who’d like to return, understands his future depends on the vagaries of the free agent market. “San Antonio is home for me,” Green said. “I love the organization. I love the fans. I love the city. In this business, you never know what is going to happen.”
  • Marc Stein of ESPN.com hears increasing suggestions that the Spurs would trade Tiago Splitter and the two years and $16.75MM left on his contract to clear cap space for their pursuit of LaMarcus Aldridge and others this summer. Still, it’s unclear from Stein’s report whether the Spurs are actively pursuing the idea or even giving it strong consideration.
  • Gregg Popovich pondered retirement more seriously than had been reported, Stein hears, but he consented to come back as he reached agreement in July on an extension that pays some $11MM annually, sources tell Stein, who refers to it as a five-year deal.

And-Ones: Pistons, Draft, Knicks

Pistons coach and president of basketball operations Stan Van Gundy and GM Jeff Bower are in Spain to evaluate potential lottery picks Mario Hezonja and Kristaps Porzingis, Terry Foster of the Detroit News reports. Detroit currently holds the No. 8 pick in the draft pending the results of the lottery and is seeking forwards who can stretch the floor, Foster continues. Hezonja could help the Pistons at small forward, a spot that was shared by aging veterans Tayshaun Prince and Caron Butler during the second half of the season. Porzingis has a good catch-and-shoot game, according to Foster, and could replace power forward Greg Monroe, who will be an unrestricted free agent this summer.

In other news around the league:

  • The NBA will hold its draft at the Nets’ Barclays Center for the third consecutive year next month, league sources informed Tim Bontemps of the New York Post. The June 25th event has been hosted by the Nets for five consecutive years, including two years at the team’s previous home arena, the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. The focus of the draft will be on Brooklyn’s crosstown rival, the Knicks, since they have the second-best chance to get the top pick through the lottery, Bontemps points out.
  • The Knicks will have anywhere from $19.1MM to $26.7MM in salary-cap space this summer, according to the latest projections by Eric Pincus of Basketball Insiders. The disparity is mainly due to the cap hold on Alexey Shved, who could receive a qualifying offer of just over $4.1MM.
  • Tony Parker and Spurs teammate Boris Diaw are among 24 players named to France’s preliminary roster for EuroBasket 2015, Dan McCarney of the San Antonio Express-News writes. Parker and Diaw have indicated they plan to participate in the event, which will be held in September, McCarney adds.

Gregg Popovich On Future, Duncan, Spending

Gregg Popovich isn’t coaching in the second round of the playoffs for only the fourth time since 1997, but he doesn’t yearn for the unlimited downtime of retirement, since “you can only plant so many tomatoes,” he quipped, as Dan McCarney of the San Antonio Express-News relays. Popovich, who holds the dual title of coach and president of Spurs basketball, is already looking forward to next season, as he made clear in his season-ending chat with reporters today. Popovich called 39-year-old Tim Duncan the most consistent player in the Clippers series and lamented the lack of help around him, perhaps a signal that he envisions a push to upgrade the roster in the months ahead. The three-time Coach of the Year had more to say on the future of Duncan, who’s entering free agency, and the Spurs, as McCarney passes along. His entire transcription is worth a read, especially for San Antonio faithful, but we’ll pass along three particularly noteworthy remarks here:

On whether Duncan will retire:

“We haven’t talked yet about that. We’ve got a pretty good number of free agents so with [GM] R.C. [Buford] and the coaches and the group we’ve talked about what we want to do going forward with the makeup of the team, but the team will probably look considerably different than it looks this year because we have so many free agents and we want to re-tool a little bit. We want to try to start — not exactly over again — but these last four seasons have been a grind and we put the team together with that in mind, that this year we’d have all the free agents so we can decide what we want to do moving forward, as far as the makeup of the team. So we’ll spend a lot of time on that, but as far as if guys are retiring or not we haven’t touched that.”

On his reflections about Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili:

“As time goes on, one certainly does [reflect upon them]. Over the past couple of years, I’ve thought about it a lot how much I’ll miss it when they’re all gone. It’s like your family. Sure. I reflect on it quite often, and think about when they’re not there. I just have this strange feeling when they’re not here, I probably won’t be either.”

On the allocation of payroll:

“R.C. and his group have always done a great job of doing things, both frugally and with class. If money needs to be spent, it’s spent. But it’s never done unwisely. We’ve never put the organization in a situation where they’re paying a ridiculous amount of money for no value. My complete faith and trust in R.C. is never going to change, because of the track record he has, thinking not just for the next year and the next two years, but the next three years, the next seven years, that type of thing.”

Southwest Notes: Green, Barea, Ellis, Demps

Danny Green hopes to re-sign with the Spurs this summer, though he’s bitter about the lost opportunity to win another championship this year with 13 of the 15 players left over from last season’s title-winning squad, as he tells Mike Monroe of the San Antonio Express-News.

“It hasn’t sunk in yet, but this is a special group,” Green said. “That’s why it sucks so bad, especially for Timmy [Duncan] and Manu [Ginobili]. We had an opportunity to do something special for them. All I can do is hope and pray for another group like that in the future, but I have a feeling some of those guys will be back. [GM] R.C. [Buford] and [coach/president Gregg Popovich] do a great job of bringing in new guys.”

Here’s more from the two other Southwest Division teams that failed to make it out of the first round:

  • J.J. Barea has said he’d like to re-sign with the Mavs and that it’ll be easier for the team to keep him than when he left for a four-year, $18MM deal in 2011, but he’s looking for about $3MM a year for the next two or three years, a source told Tim MacMahon of ESPNDallas.com. That would exceed the amount the Mavs can spend using his Non-Bird rights and force the team to dip into cap space or another exception to retain him.

Earlier updates:

  • The Mavericks carried the second-fewest number players from 2013/14 into the start of 2014/15, and December’s Rajon Rondo trade meant even more turnover. Plenty of changes are likely on their way again this year, as I examined, but Devin Harris believes the upheaval from the past 12 months presented a challenge for this season’s Mavs, notes Earl K. Sneed of Mavs.com. “It was a trying year,” Harris said. “With all the new guys we had coming into the season and making an in-season trade while trying to get guys adjusted, it was just kind of an uphill battle all year long. We were trying to get everybody to play to their strengths, and it was tough.
  • Mavs coach Rick Carlisle credited Monta Ellis for “two terrific years” in Dallas and Dirk Nowitzki made it clear he’d like the shooting guard to return as Ellis ponders an $8.72MM player option that Sneed, writing in the same piece, suggests he’s likely to decline.
  • Pelicans GM Dell Demps deserves a passing grade for his midseason moves this year, but he’s made his share of miscues in the past, including the decisions that leave New Orleans once more bereft of a first-round draft pick this year, opines Jimmy Smith of The Times-Picayune.

Western Notes: Thunder, Blazers, Spurs

It would behoove Tim Duncan to convince LaMarcus Aldridge to join the Spurs this summer, Buck Harvey of the San Antonio Express-News writes. The Spurs are reportedly at the top of Aldridge’s list. Duncan, 39, would have a more realistic shot at another title playing alongside Aldridge, a native of Texas, if Duncan decides he wants to play next season, Harvey adds. Harvey also speculates that since Aldridge already has a list of teams in May, the star forward conceivably will be on the move.

There’s more from the Western Conference:

  • Trail Blazers star Damian Lillard’s intention to seek a maximum contract extension from the team this offseason is a shrewd move and one that makes Portland’s offseason even trickier, John Canzano of the Oregonian opines. Lillard is basically using Aldridge’s free agency as leverage, Canzano writes. If the team says no to Lillard, it seemingly sends a signal to Aldridge that it’s not invested in competing, Canzano adds. As reported last week, Lillard has no plans to consider agreeing to an extension for less than the designated maximum.
  • Thunder GM Sam Presti said he was looking for a coach with tactical gumption and Darnell Mayberry of The Oklahoman writes the executive found one in former Florida coach Billy Donovan. The new coach wants to put an emphasis on unselfish ball movement and a lot of offensive freedom for players, Mayberry adds, which is similar to what the Thunder tried to implement last season before injuries helped derail expectations. More creativity would benefit the Thunder, Mayberry writes, and the consensus among those the reporter interviewed is that Donovan is the man who can add that aspect to the team. Another important part of the hire is that Donovan has solid experience working with players like Russell Westbrook, who is very talented, but has an emotionally charged personality, Anthony Slater of The Oklahoman writes.

Spurs Notes: Ginobili, Duncan, Free Agency

The Spurs need to add some new pieces to help rekindle their desire to keep winning championships, Kevin Ding of Bleacher Report opines. A top-level player like the Trail Blazers’ LaMarcus Aldridge, an unrestricted free agent who is still seeking his first title, would bring more fire to the locker room since the team can no longer count on aging Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker to give the Spurs that competitive edge, Ding adds. Kawhi Leonard does not have the personality to become a leader at this stage of his career while other players, such as Tiago Splitter, have not developed as well as San Antonio had hoped, Ding adds. Chris Paul‘s burning desire to advance in the playoffs was evident as he carried the Clippers past the Spurs in the opening round of the playoffs, while San Antonio often looked complacent during the regular season and that cost it homecourt advantage in the opening series, Ding concludes.

Here’s more on the Spurs:

  • Ginobili offered a candid response about his future, tweets Jeff McDonald of the San Antonio Express-News, saying that he sometimes just wants to be home with his family and the decision on whether or not to come back is a very difficult one.“Some days you feel proud and think you did great,” Ginobili said. “Other games I say, ‘What the hell am I doing here when I should stay home and enjoy my kids?’ So it’s a tough moment. You’ve just got to sit, wait, let it all go and then make a decision.”  Last month, Ginobili, 37, said he plans to retire either this coming offseason or next.
  • With mainstays without a contract, next season will likely feature a different look to the Spurs, Buck Harvey of the San Antonio Express-News opines. Duncan and Ginobili will become free agents in July. So, too, will starters Kawhi Leonard, who will be restricted, and Danny Green, who is unrestricted. It’s worth noting, as Harvey did, that despite his age (39), Duncan played remarkably well down the stretch. He had 27 points and 11 rebounds in Game 7’s loss to the Clippers. “He’s a miracle to me at 39,” Spurs coach Gregg Popovich said, “the way he plays at both ends of the court.”

Will Joseph contributed to this post.

Show all