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We've taken in-depth looks at several players eligible for extensions to their rookie-scale contracts this fall, but whether to extend isn't the only decision that teams face with recent former first-round picks. The final two seasons of four-year rookie-scale deals are team option years, but unlike other options, the deadline for either exercising or declining them is a full year before the option season begins. In most cases, rookie-scale deals are bargains and there's no thinking required when it comes to picking up the options. The Cavs, for instance, aren't going to let Kyrie Irving's deal end a year early. 

Of course, most first-round picks don't find instant success the way Irving has done. Sometimes, a former first-round pick may be struggling to find playing time or live up to his promise, but the team still has confidence that he can develop, and the front office is willing to assume his relatively small cap hit for another season. Then, there are those who aren't panning out at all, making even a cheap rookie deal seem like an outsized expense.

Part of what makes some of these calls difficult is that teams have to decide a year ahead of time. The options that clubs are debating this fall are for 2014/15. Further complicating matters is that if a team declines a player's rookie-scale option, he becomes an unrestricted free agent when the deal is up, instead of a restricted free agent, as would be the case if the team allowed the contract to run to term.

Teams are in an especially difficult position with underperforming players taken near the top of the first round, since the final seasons of their rookie contracts can get pricey. Former No. 2 overall pick Derrick Williams will be set to make $6,331,404 in 2014/15 if the T-Wolves pick up his fourth-year option, as Grantland's Zach Lowe pointed out recently when he looked at a few high profile rookie-scale option decisions.

Lowe broke down a half dozen players in that piece, and I've taken a broader look at each player eligible to have his rookie-scale option picked up before the October 31st deadline. I grouped them into three categories based on the likelihood that their respective teams will exercise the options, and I added a blurb for some of the more compelling cases.

Clubs that must decide on third-year options only have the player's rookie season to go on, so they pick those up more often than they do with fourth-year options, and I took that into consideration as I filled out the categories. Feel free to disagree and share your own analysis in the comments.

No-brainers

If anyone among this bunch has his option declined, it will be a shock.

• Kyrie Irving, Cavaliers (4th year, $7,070,730)
• Jonas Valanciunas, Raptors (4th year, $3,678,360)
• Klay Thompson, Warriors (4th year, $3,075,880)
• Kawhi Leonard, Spurs (4th year, $2,894,059)
• Nikola Vucevic, Magic (4th year, $2,751,260)
• Kenneth Faried, Nuggets (4th year, $2,249,768)
• Jimmy Butler, Bulls (4th year, $2,008,748)
• Ricky Rubio, Timberwolves (4th year, $4,660,479)
• Anthony Davis, Pelicans (3rd year, $5,607,240)
• Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (3rd year, $5,016,960)
• Bradley Beal, Wizards (3rd year, $4,505,280)
• Dion Waiters, Cavaliers (3rd year, $4,062,000)
• Damian Lillard, Trail Blazers (3rd year, $3,340,920)
• Harrison Barnes, Warriors (3rd year, $3,049,920)
• Andre Drummond, Pistons (3rd year, $2,568,360)

Probables

It'd be surprising if the options for these players weren't picked up, too, even if the decision isn't quite as easy as with the guys in the above category.

• Enes Kanter, Jazz (4th year, $5,694,674)
• Tristan Thompson, Cavaliers (4th year, $5,138,430)
• Bismack Biyombo, Bobcats (4th year, $3,873,398)
• Brandon Knight, Bucks (4th year, $3,553,917)
• Kemba Walker, Bobcats (4th year, $3,272,091)
• Alec Burks, Jazz (4th year, $3,034,356) — I might have listed him as on the bubble, but the Jazz seem focused on turning the team over to their young players, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if Burks emerged as the starting shooting guard this season. Lowe referred to his option as a "cinch" to be picked up.
• Markieff Morris, Suns (4th year, $2,989,239)
• Marcus Morris, Suns (4th year, $2,943,221) — Much as with Burks and the Jazz, the Suns probably want to see what the Morris twins do with a full season of ample playing time before casting either of them off.
• Iman Shumpert, Knicks (4th year, $2,616,975)
• Tobias Harris, Magic (4th year, $2,380,594)
• Donatas Motiejunas, Rockets (3rd year, $1,483,920) — The focus in Houston has switched from youth to veterans, but with only his rookie season under his belt, the Rockets will probably give the former 20th overall pick some more time to develop.
• Reggie Jackson, Thunder (4th year, $2,204,369)
• MarShon Brooks, Celtics (4th year, $2,179,354)
• Norris Cole, Heat (4th year, $2,038,206)
• Thomas Robinson, Trail Blazers (3rd year, $3,678,360)
• Terrence Ross, Raptors (3rd year, $2,793,960) — He has the makings of a no-brainer, since he's a top 10 pick coming off his rookie season, but without rousing success last year and with new management in Toronto, it's at least conceivable that his option goes unexercised.
• Austin Rivers, Pelicans (3rd year, $2,439,840) — His rookie season was rough, but his status as the 10th overall pick is enough to keep him off the bubble here.
• Meyers Leonard, Trail Blazers (3rd year, $2,317,920)
• Jeremy Lamb, Thunder (3rd year, $2,202,000)
• John Henson, Bucks (3rd year, $1,987,320)
• Maurice Harkless, Magic (3rd year, $1,887,840)
• Tyler Zeller, Cavaliers (3rd year, $1,703,760)
• Terrence Jones, Rockets (3rd year, $1,618,680) — He's in almost precisely the same situation as Motiejunas, with little NBA playing time on his resume as Houston turns away from its youth movement. The Rockets may see Jones and Motiejunas as an either-or debate. 
• Andrew Nicholson, Magic (3rd year, $1,545,840)
• Evan Fournier, Nuggets (3rd year, $1,483,920)
• Jared Sullinger, Celtics (3rd year, $1,424,520)
• John Jenkins, Hawks (3rd year, $1,312,920)
• Miles Plumlee, Suns (3rd year, $1,169,880)
• Arnett Moultrie, Sixers (3rd year, $1,136,160)
• Perry Jones, Thunder (3rd year, $1,129,200)
• Marquis Teague, Bulls (3rd year, $1,120,920)
• Festus Ezeli, Warriors (3rd year, $1,112,880)

On the bubble

This bunch will test the mettle of their respective front offices, and it will be compelling to see what choices the teams make as the deadline approaches.

• Derrick Williams, Timberwolves (4th year, $6,331,404)
• Jan Vesely, Wizards (4th year, $4,236,287)
• Jimmer Fredette, Kings (4th year, $3,110,796) — Fredette's defensive ineptitude and limited offensive skill set beyond his shooting make $3MM+ a tough price to pay for him. That's especially so given the Kings' cap constraints in 2014/15, as Lowe points out in his piece. The team invested a 10th overall pick in him, but that was long before new GM Pete D'Alessandro arrived. He and the rest of the front office may not have reservations about cutting ties with the former BYU star.
• Chris Singleton, Wizards (4th year, $2,489,530)
• Jordan Hamilton, Nuggets (4th year, $2,109,294) — The only time he's found his way into the rotation so far is when someone else has been hurt. He might get some playing time early in the season with Danilo Gallinari hurt, but as with the Kings and Fredette, Denver's new GM and new coach don't have as much a stake in him as the old regime did.
• Cory Joseph, Spurs (4th year, $2,023,261) — He was Tony Parker's backup as the playoffs began last season, but his postseason minutes were erratic.
• Kendall Marshall, Suns (3rd year, $2,091,840) — Phoenix has plenty of point guards, even though the team plans to play Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe in the backcourt together. The Suns reportedly put Marshall on the trade block this summer.
• Royce White, Sixers (3rd year, $1,793,520) — White, whose struggles with mental health have been well-documented, is probably less likely to have his option picked up than any other eligible player this year. Furkan Aldemir was apparently the team's primary target in the trade that brought White to Philly.
• Jared Cunningham, Hawks (3rd year, $1,260,360) — He was outplayed by a couple of second-round picks on the Mavericks last year, and he's on his second team in as many seasons.
• Tony Wroten, Sixers (3rd year, $1,210,080) — The Grizzlies traded Wroten to Philadelphia last month for little more than breathing room under the tax line, indicating a major slip in his NBA stock.

ShamSports was used in the creation of this post.

Michael Beasley's buyout from the Suns is garnering plenty of attention today, but he's not the only former No. 2 overall pick in the news. We just passed along a report that 1999 No. 2 pick Mike Bibby will work out for the Spurs, and earlier today, Luke Adams of Hoops Rumors weighed the chances that Hasheem Thabeet, the second pick from 2009, will remain on his non-guaranteed contract with the Thunder. LaMarcus Aldridge spoke this weekend about trade rumors that have surrounded him for much of the summer. And Wolves president of basketball operations Flip Saunders said Friday that the team isn't sure it will pick up Derrick Williams' 2014/15 option by this year's October 31st deadline.

It's just the latest during an offseason in which several former No. 2 overall picks have made headlines. Jason Kidd retired as a player and took over as coach of the Nets, while Marcus Camby, his teammate on the Knicks last year, was traded to the Raptors, arranged for a buyout, and signed with the Rockets. Even Kevin Durant, who's locked into a long-term deal, drew mention as the league decided to reimburse the Thunder for a portion of his contract.

Last month, I looked at the salaries for each No. 1 overall pick since 1996, and with so much noise surrounding the guys taken second, let's see how they stack up. Durant, naturally, is the highest-paid No. 2 pick, followed by three players making between $14MM and $15MM this season — Aldridge, Emeka Okafor and Tyson Chandler. Camby is the only former second overall pick making the minimum salary this year, but a half dozen who've come into the league since 1996 are without NBA playing contracts, and most of those six have been out of the league for some time. Steve Francis and Stromile Swift were back-to-back No. 2 picks who wound up in China about 10 years into their pro careers.

Here's the complete list of 2013/14 playing salaries for No. 2 overall picks since 1996: 

• 2013: Victor Oladipo, $4,763,760
• 2012: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, $4,809,840
• 2011: Derrick Williams, $5,016,960
• 2010: Evan Turner, $6,679,867 — second highest-paid player on the Sixers, behind Thaddeus Young
• 2009: Hasheem Thabeet, $1,200,000 (Only $500K guaranteed)
• 2008: Michael Beasley, $4,670,000 (Reduced from $6MM per buyout agreement)
• 2007: Kevin Durant, $17,832,627
• 2006: LaMarcus Aldridge, $14,878,000
• 2005: Marvin Williams, $7,500,000
• 2004: Emeka Okafor, $14,487,500
• 2003: Darko Milicic, $0 — Likely retired from the NBA
• 2002: Jay Williams, $0 — Retired
• 2001: Tyson Chandler, $14,100,538
• 2000: Stromile Swift, $0 — Hasn't played in the NBA since 2008/09. Last played in China in 2009/10.
• 1999: Steve Francis, $0 — Hasn't played in the NBA since 2007/08. Last played in China in 2010/11.
• 1998: Mike Bibby, $0
• 1997: Keith Van Horn, $0 — Retired
• 1996: Marcus Camby, $1,399,507

ShamSports was used in the creation of this post.

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Some NBA teams are spending the waning days of the summer debating contract extensions for players entering the final season of their rookie-scale contracts, but those aren't the only decisions that clubs must make involving recent former first-round picks. The third and fourth seasons of every rookie-scale contract are team options, and the decisions on those options are due early. They must either be exercised or declined before the second and third seasons of those deals, respectively.

Most of the time, clubs pick up those relatively cheap options, but sometimes, players simply haven't met expectations, prompting their teams to take a pass. That's the case with 14 of the 60 players picked in the first round in 2010 and 2011 — guys who would otherwise still be on their rookie deals. Here's an update on each of them.

Signed with NBA teams

• Wesley Johnson (2010 No. 4) — He wound up with a one-year, minimum-salary deal from the Lakers this summer. The Suns turned down Johnson's fourth-year option last fall, shortly after acquiring him via trade.
• Al-Farouq Aminu (2010 No. 8) — No one on this list was affected less by his team's decision not to exercise his option. He re-signed with the Pelicans this summer for a one-year contract worth $3,749,602 — exactly what he would have made in his option year. 
• James Anderson (2010 No. 20) — He's bounced around quite a bit since the Spurs decided in 2011 not to exercise is third year option, signing contracts with the Hawks, Spurs again, and Rockets. Houston waived him last month, but the Sixers, with former Rockets executive Sam Hinkie as their new GM, claimed him and assumed his non-guaranteed contract.
• Daniel Orton (2010 No. 29) — The Thunder signed him to a three-year contract right before last season, but the final two seasons are non-guaranteed, and he's expressed a willingness to be released from the deal if he could find more playing time elsewhere.

Signed overseas

• Luke Babbitt (2010 No. 16) — He's signed a one-year deal with Russian club Nizhny Novgorod. The deal doesn't include an out that would allow him to return to the NBA this season.
• Craig Brackins (2010 No. 21) — He'll join 2009 first-rounder Christian Eyenga in Poland this season with Stelmet Zielona Gora.
• Nolan Smith (2011 No. 21) — Last month it appeared that Smith would take part in Celtics training camp, but he wound up signing with Cedevita Zagreb of Croatia instead.
• JaJuan Johnson (2011 No. 27) — He inked a deal with Italy's Giorgio Tesi Pistoia after spending summer league with the Pistons in hopes of finding NBA work.

Free agents

• Cole Aldrich (2010 No. 11) — The big man worked out for the Kings this month, and the Knicks are reportedly interested as well.
• Xavier Henry (2010 No. 12) — The Pelicans, who declined his 2013/14 option, took the additional step of renouncing his rights in July, and there hasn't been much news on the shooting guard since. A Sixers beat writer made reference to Henry as someone who could interest the Sixers, but the only other news we've heard on him this summer involves his exploits in pickup games.
• Elliot Williams (2010 No. 22) — He missed all of 2012/13 after tearing his Achilles tendon last September, and he sat out of summer league after having hopes of using it as a launching pad for a new deal. It doesn't sound like re-signing with the Blazers is an option.
• Damion James (2010 No. 24) — The Nets gave him a 10-day contract a couple months after he and fellow 2010 first-rounder James Anderson failed to make the Hawks on a training camp invitation, but Brooklyn didn't renew his deal after the 10 days were up. He spent summer league with the Heat after attending a Bucks free agent mini-camp in June.
• Dominique Jones (2010 No. 25) — He was linked to the Nets and Bucks, but that was back in June, and no other NBA teams have been reported to have interest since then. If he can't get an NBA deal, he would apparently prefer playing overseas to another stint in the D-League.
• Lazar Hayward (2010 No. 30) — He went to Houston as part of the James Harden trade, but he didn't spent much time with the Rockets, who waived him right after they acquired him. He had a pair of brief tenures with the Timberwolves this past season, but the club didn't pick him up again after his 10-day contract expired, and we haven't heard him linked to another team since.

There are many ways we can categorize the experience that coaches bring to their jobs: retreads and first-time hires, college guys and NBA lifers, former assistants and those who skipped that step. Perhaps the most important of distinctions is the one that either allows them to tell their players they've been there and done that or not.

In an offseason when we've seen record-high turnover in the coaching ranks, seven of the 13 new hires are without NBA playing experience. That's an unusually high ratio in a league where most coaches were at least bit players in the Association at some point in their lives. In the last five years, teams hired 34 coaches who had played in the NBA, but only half as many who didn't. The records of those 51 total hires suggest a reason why there were more non-players hired this year. Those without playing experience compiled a .495 winning percentage, superior to the .449 winning percentage the ex-players managed. It's also worth noting that neither group of coaches hired within the past five seasons reached .500, but that's a phenomenon that's probably worth its own post.

Here's a list of this offseason's hires, broken down by ex-players and non-players:

Ex-Players

• Jason Kidd, Nets
• Brian Shaw, Nuggets
• Maurice Cheeks, Pistons
• Doc Rivers, Clippers
• Larry Drew, Bucks
• Jeff Hornacek, Suns

Non-Players

• Mike Budenholzer, Hawks
• Brad Stevens, Celtics
• Steve Clifford, Bobcats
• Mike Brown, Cavaliers
• Dave Joerger, Grizzlies
• Brett Brown, Sixers
• Michael Malone, Kings

The chart that follows shows each of the coaching hires since the 2008 offseason, with the exception of coaches who kept their jobs for 10 games or fewer — in other words, placeholder interim choices who kept the seat warm after a coach was fired midseason. Note that some coaches are listed multiple times, like Vinny Del Negro, since they held more than one job over the past five years.

Of course, this doesn't definitively prove coaches without playing experience are better. It merely provides a small window into the issue, and helps explain some of the hires that were made this summer. After a Finals in which both coaches never played in the NBA, we'll see if the trend toward more such coaches continues in years to come.

The Hoops Rumors iPhone/iPad app is now for sale in the iTunes store!  For just a one-time fee of $2.99, less than the price of a cup of coffee, here's what you get:

• Custom push notifications: pick your favorite players and teams and receive alerts when they are involved in rumors, trades, or signings.
• Read Hoops Rumors posts in an ad-free, iPhone/iPad-friendly format.
• Filter headlines to show rumors for a specific team.
• Read and create comments through Disqus.

Check out the Hoops Rumors iPhone/iPad app today!

This year, plenty of teams appear to be employing a strategy of pain in hope of later gain. Whether it's called tanking, riggin' for Wiggins (in reference to Andrew Wiggins, the presumptive top pick in the 2014 draft), or a more charitable term, several front offices have gone all-in on the future at the expense of the present. The Sixers, Magic, Jazz, Suns and Kings all figure to have a hard time exceeding 25 wins this season, and the Celtics and Bobcats could wind up in that group, too. 

The reward for that kind of failure is a top pick in the loaded 2014 draft, and some of those teams are also set up with enough cap room to chase one of the superstar free agents who could become available next summer. Executives are hoping that will set them on a course toward championship contention, but teams don't often vault from the dregs to the elite, as recent history shows.

Among teams that have won 25 games or fewer in any season since 2005/06, the first year of the most recent former collective bargaining agreement, only the Celtics and the Heat have recovered to win championships. Those two franchises have accounted for three of the last six titles, which is an impressive ratio considering the depths those clubs came from. Still, it masks the fact that 14 of the NBA's 30 franchises won 25 or fewer games at some point between 2005/06 and 2011/12, meaning only one in seven reached the promised land. 

Luck factors into which teams win championships, but there's less happenstance involved in identifying teams that have had realistic shots at doing so. Grantland's Zach Lowe recently pointed to 55 regular season wins as more or less the mark of a championship contender, so that seems as an approriate a measure as any. The Grizzlies, Thunder and Clippers join the Heat and Celtics in having gone from 25 or fewer wins to 55 or more wins, but that's still only five of the 14 franchises who've plumbed the NBA depths of late.

The Celtics and Heat also represent outliers in terms of the speed with which they turned around their fortunes. No team that has finished with 25 wins or fewer since 2009/10 has recovered to make the playoffs in a subsequent season other than the Nets, who have only last year's first-round flameout to their credit. 

Here's a chart showing each team that won 25 games or fewer since 2005/06, with their records, followed by the first seasons in which they made the playoffs, won at least 55 games, and won the title, respectively. The benchmarks for the lockout-shortened season of 2011/12 were adjusted to 20 wins and 44 wins. The 2012/13 season is excluded, since none of the poorest teams from this past season have had a chance to show improvement.

With little more than a month to go before training camp opens, we’ve already seen several players invited to training camps on non-guaranteed contracts. In many cases, those deals have taken their respective teams over the 15-man regular season roster limit. That’s OK this time of year, since teams can carry as many as 20 players in the offseason. Clubs must pare their rosters down to no more than 15 by October 28th.

In the meantime, several teams will hang above that 15-man line. Some clubs have more than 15 contracts that are at least partially guaranteed. That means they’ll wind up paying a player who won’t be on their regular season roster, unless they can find a trade partner.

With more movement to come, here’s the latest look at each team’s roster size. Check out our schedule of guarantee dates for more information and to see the names of specific players without fully guaranteed deals.

Updated 4-17-14

• 76ers (15): 15 fully guaranteed
• Bobcats (15): 15 fully guaranteed
• Bucks (15): 15 fully guaranteed
• Bulls (15): 15 fully guaranteed
• Cavaliers (15): 15 fully guaranteed
• Celtics (15): 15 fully guaranteed
• Clippers (14): 14 fully guaranteed
• Grizzlies (15): 15 fully guaranteed
• Hawks (15): 15 fully guaranteed
• Heat (15): 15 fully guaranteed
• Jazz (15): 15 fully guaranteed
• Kings (15): 15 fully guaranteed
• Knicks (15): 15 fully guaranteed
• Lakers (15): 15 fully guaranteed
• Magic (13): 13 fully guaranteed
• Mavericks (15): 15 fully guaranteed
• Nets (15): 15 fully guaranteed
• Nuggets (15): 15 fully guaranteed
• Pacers (15): 15 fully guaranteed
• Pelicans (16): 16 fully guaranteed
• Pistons (15): 15 fully guaranteed
• Raptors (15): 15 fully guaranteed
• Rockets (15): 15 fully guaranteed
• Spurs (15): 15 fully guaranteed
• Suns (15): 15 fully guaranteed
• Thunder (15): 15 fully guaranteed
• Timberwolves (15): 15 fully guaranteed
• Trail Blazers (15): 15 fully guaranteed
• Warriors (15): 15 fully guaranteed
• Wizards (15): 15 fully guaranteed

ShamSports and HoopsWorld were used in the creation of this post.

This week, No. 1 overall pick Anthony Bennett finally signed his rookie-scale contract with the Cavaliers. Barring a significant surprise, he'll make the standard 120% of his scale amount, so his salary will undoubtedly be $5,324,280, as our salary chart for first-round picks shows.

That's a far cry from what a No. 1 pick can earn on his second contract. Blake Griffin is entering the first season of a maximum-salary extension this year, a deal made even more lucrative when Griffin met the Derrick Rose Rule criteria for a higher max. The money gets better still when a No. 1 pick hits unrestricted free agency for the first time, as Dwight Howard's new four-year $87,591,270 max deal demonstrates.

Not every No. 1 overall pick fulfills his promise, of course, but even players who become serviceable, if not superstars, can earn eight-figure salaries, like Andrew Bogut and Andrea Bargnani. Of course, few top picks have ever panned out as poorly as Greg Oden, who's managed to play only the equivalent of one season since the Trail Blazers picked him first in 2007. Unless he suffers yet another injury, he'll be back on the court this season with the Heat, but only at the minimum salary.

Kenyon Martin will make the minimum this year, too, but part of that has to do with his advanced age. At 35, he's not the player he once was. K-Mart doesn't engender much sympathy when compared to Tim Duncan, however. Duncan is two years older and in the midst of a three-year, $30MM contract he signed last summer.

At least Martin is still playing. Michael Olowokandi and Yao Ming, No. 1 picks who entered the league after Duncan did, saw their careers come to premature ends. Allen Iverson, the No. 1 pick a year before the Spurs drafted Duncan, finally appears ready to give up the ghost, as he's reportedly set to announce his retirement, more than three years since his last NBA game.

It's been an active summer for No. 1 overall picks on the market, as Davis, Oden, Howard, Martin and Elton Brand have all signed new deals. John Wall signed a maximum-salary extension that will kick in for 2014/15, and the Raptors traded Andrea Bargnani, their top pick seven years ago, to the Knicks.

Here's every No. 1 overall pick since 1996, along with their 2013/14 salaries:

• 2013: Anthony Bennett, $5,324,280
• 2012: Anthony Davis, $5,375,760
• 2011: Kyrie Irving, $5,607,240
• 2010: John Wall, $7,459,925
• 2009: Blake Griffin, $16,441,500
• 2008: Derrick Rose, $17,632,688
• 2007: Greg Oden, $1,027,424
• 2006: Andrea Bargnani, $11,862,500
• 2005: Andrew Bogut, $14,000,000
• 2004: Dwight Howard, $20,513,178
• 2003: LeBron James, $19,067,500
• 2002: Yao Ming, $0 — Retired in 2011.
• 2001: Kwame Brown, $2,945,901
• 2000: Kenyon Martin, $1,399,507
• 1999: Elton Brand, $4,000,000
• 1998: Michael Olowokandi, $0 — Hasn't played since 2006/07 season
• 1997: Tim Duncan, $10,361,446
• 1996: Allen Iverson, $0 — Will reportedly announce retirement soon.

ShamSports was used in the creation of this post.