Weekly Mailbag

Hoops Rumors Weekly Mailbag 5/3/15-5/9/15

May 9th, 2015 at 1:45pm CST by Eddie Scarito

In addition to our weekly chat, which Chuck Myron facilitates every Wednesday, we have a second opportunity for you to hit us up with your questions in this, our weekly mailbag feature. Have a question regarding player movement, the salary cap, or the NBA draft? Drop me a line at HoopsRumorsMailbag@Gmail.com or @EddieScarito on Twitter. Now for this week’s inquiries:

“It’s pretty clear that Dallas will be going hard after LaMarcus Aldridge and DeAndre Jordan, but to me Aldridge seems pretty unlikely. So, how well do you think Jordan would mesh with Dirk Nowitzki and Co.? Better than Tyson Chandler? Also, do you see a scenario where they get both Jordan and Chandler or is that also more of an either/or kind of deal?” — Matt

I think Jordan would mesh with the Mavs rather well. While the Clippers’ big man is certainly more athletic than Chandler is at this stage of his career, the two players’ skill sets are remarkably similar. I think Jordan could step in for Chandler tomorrow and Dallas wouldn’t miss a beat as far as talent and production. Now as far as leadership and chemistry go, that is always an unknown. Jordan has certainly matured as a player and a teammate the last few seasons, but he doesn’t bring with him the intangibles and leadership that Chandler can provide. But Jordan would bring legs that are six years younger than Chandler’s, which is a huge advantage. Dallas could certainly stand to get younger as a team, and adding Jordan would be a nice start.

As for Dallas inking both Jordan and Chandler…why would the franchise want to do that? Neither of the players’ forte is scoring, and both need the ball close to the basket to be effective. Talk about a clogged paint area on offense! Plus, this isn’t the NBA of the 80s and 90s. Big men who hold down the post are are being eschewed in favor of stretch-four types. Having two offensively limited bigs occupying $30MM-$40MM worth of the team’s cap space wouldn’t make it easy to construct a championship caliber roster around them.

“If the Pistons land the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, who do they select?” — Ricky

If the ping-pong balls bounce the right way for Detroit on lottery night and they snag the top pick I don’t think team president Stan Van Gundy would think twice about who to select…it would have to be Kentucky big man Karl-Anthony Towns. With the Pistons almost assuredly going to do what it takes to re-sign guard Reggie Jackson, the team’s two biggest needs will be a starting small forward and a power forward who can stretch the floor. While Jahlil Okafor would be a tempting player to take at the No. 1 spot, I don’t think he would mesh well with Andre Drummond at all. Towns has the higher upside, is more athletic, can shoot it from the outside, and is the far superior defender of the two freshmen. I love the idea of pairing Drummond and Towns together in the frontcourt. So should Van Gundy if given the opportunity.

“What do you think about the Thunder’s hire of Billy Donovan as head coach?” — Vincent

I do think the Thunder needed a change of head coaches, if only to shake things up. As for bringing Donovan in, I think the hire has some interesting possibilities. OKC certainly needs to revamp its offense, which Donovan can certainly do. But it’s a difficult transition for college coaches to jump to the pros. It’s such a different world, and one that most former collegiate coaches haven’t succeeded in. The work Brad Stevens is doing in Boston is changing perceptions around the league, but the OKC job comes with far greater expectations and a marked jump in the level of pressure than Boston’s. I do like that GM Sam Presti brought in a new face and not some coaching retread, but I’m not sure any new coach could go in and meet the level of expectations next season that come with a roster that includes Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook.

“What are your impressions of [Georgia State guard] R.J. Hunter? Where do you see him being selected?” — Stevie

I like Hunter quite a bit actually. While he had a down season statistically, I think he’ll make a much better pro than a collegiate player. He’s a fearless gunner from deep who can create his own shot, though a little more athleticism and speed would be nice. I’m very interested in seeing how his pre-draft workouts go in this regard. My take is that Hunter should evolve into a solid sixth man in a few short seasons in the league, and he’ll be looked at as a value pick for where he’s likely to be selected.

As for when Hunter can expect to hear his name called, most mock drafts predict him being selected somewhere in the mid-to-late 20s. With a severe lack of outside shooting prospects in this year’s draft, Hunter could move up to a team that is drafting for that specific need. The Rockets are a possibility at No. 18, but that’s as high as I think the Georgia State guard will go. A more likely scenario is Hunter going to the Grizzlies (No. 25), Spurs (No. 26) or Nets (No.29).

That’s all the space I have for this week’s round of inquiries. As always, I appreciate all who took the time to send in their questions. Please keep them coming, and I’ll be back next week with more responses…

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Weekly Mailbag

Hoops Rumors Weekly Mailbag 4/26/15-5/2/15

May 2nd, 2015 at 2:10pm CST by Eddie Scarito

“If both Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili return to the Spurs next season, what happens to San Antonio’s chances to land a big name free agent like LaMarcus Aldridge?” — Kelly

Well, the short answer is that it doesn’t help those chances one bit financially. But from a recruitment standpoint it would be a nice selling point for Spurs GM R.C. Buford to have in his pocket when he meets with Aldridge and his representatives. The appeal of playing alongside those two veterans, along with young star Kawhi Leonard, sure sounds better than what most teams would be able to sell Aldridge. And that’s on top of playing in his home state of Texas, which also happens to lack a state income tax, which would mean more of Aldridge’s salary would remain in his possession.

As for the numbers involved, the Spurs have roughly $34,159,326 in guaranteed salary on the books for next season already, not counting Leonard’s cap hold, which will be in the ballpark of $7,235,148. With the 2015/16 salary cap expected to be approximately $67MM, some quick math shows that would leave San Antonio around $25,605,526 to work with. If the team were to offer Aldridge a max contract, which is what it would likely take to reel him in, that would eat up roughly $19MM of that amount. While Duncan and Ginobili are both fantastic team-first guys, the idea of them splitting under $7MM of salary for next season seems like a tremendous flight of fancy to me. Of course, Aldridge could elect to take less, or sign a one-year deal to try and cash in on the expected salary cap jump in 2016. But those are extremely unlikely scenarios as well. So, if both veterans return next season, the Spurs probably can’t land Aldridge, or Marc Gasol, who is also reportedly on the team’s wish list this offseason.

“If the Mavs have to choose between signing DeAndre Jordan and Tyson Chandler this offseason, who should they pick?” — Deacon

This is going to be a difficult call for the Mavs this summer. Chandler is a great team guy who seems to love it in Dallas, and he obviously fits in with the franchise’s culture. Not a small consideration in the wake of how poor a fit Rajon Rondo was after being acquired from Boston. But Chandler, 32, is six years older than Jordan, which is a lifetime when looking at NBA big men. Chandler showed he can still be an asset with his play this season, but his best basketball is most assuredly behind him.

Jordan is currently in his prime, and will be coming off a very solid and highly productive campaign for the Clippers. Replacing Chandler with Jordan would certainly be considered an upgrade, both in the short-term, as well as over the life of a four-year contract, which is almost assuredly what Jordan will be seeking this offseason. The Mavs do need to work on getting younger, and adding a talented big man like Jordan would certainly help this process.

The wildcard here is what other moves the Mavs wish to make this offseason. I haven’t seen any reports on what kind of deal Chandler will be seeking this summer just yet. If he is interested in signing a short deal (one or two years), and would accept a paycut from the $14,846,887 he earned in 2014/15, then Chandler may in fact be the better option. If the team could retain Chandler for another season, then have him off its books in time for the summer of 2016, that may be the wiser move. But if both big men were seeking similar contract terms, then youth will always be the wiser choice.

“Now that Kevin Love is done for the year, what is your assessment of the Cavs/Wolves trade? Which team is the winner?” — Xavier

I don’t know that this trade can be fairly judged after just one season. Love being out of action for four to six months certainly doesn’t help Cleveland’s side of the ledger here. But if the Cavs won the title with Love in the lineup, then things would certainly be judged differently by many. Hanging banners from the rafters always paints risky roster decisions in a more favorable light.

As for the trade, I thought it was a bad move when the Cavs pulled the trigger on it, and I think the same thing today. Love’s injury aside, Cleveland gave up far too much for a player who has never proven that he is more than a stat sheet filler, and who can leave after this season to boot. Andrew Wiggins is a potential superstar, and I think Cavs fans will really begin to feel the sting of what could have been as he continues to improve and develop.

So if I have to crown a winner right now, then I’ll go with the Wolves on this one. They turned an asset (Love) who was almost assuredly going to be lost after this season to free agency, and netted themselves the Rookie of the Year. Wiggins has the potential to carry a franchise for years to come, and he also fits in well with what Flip Saunders is building in Minnesota. It’s hard to find fault on the Wolves’ side of things. However, if Love re-signs with the Cavs and they win a title or two during his tenure, then I’ll reassess my position.

“You’re on record as being a Knicks fan. What is your opinion of Phil Jackson forcing the triangle offense on the team for better or worse?” — Sammy

I take it that you’re not a fan of the system judging from your tone. That makes two of us. The league has changed quite a bit from when the Bulls and Lakers were winning titles and running that particular offense. Players who are entering the league nowadays are as a whole, less disciplined and experienced than in the past, and with the AAU pipeline emphasizing more of a ball-dominating style of offense, there are simply not enough players who can thrive in such a complex, and unselfish system like the triangle.

But I’ve also never been a fan of teams trying to shoehorn players into a particular system instead of designing one around the strengths of their rosters. Admittedly, the 2014/15 campaign isn’t a great case study in how effective the system can be in New York, considering the Knicks’ roster would have struggled to make the D-League playoffs this past season. But I’m not thrilled with the organization’s seemingly stubborn commitment to sticking with the triangle regardless of who is suiting up for the team next season. Time will tell on this one, but I can’t shake the feeling that Jackson will bolt by year three of his five-year deal, and then the team will have to start from scratch once again, rendering this whole triangle experiment pointless.

That’s all the space I have for this week. As always, I appreciate all of the submissions, and please keep them coming! I’ll be back next week with more responses and opinions.

Hoops Rumors Weekly Mailbag 4/19/15-4/25/15

April 25th, 2015 at 8:50am CST by Eddie Scarito

“Did the Thunder make the right move in firing coach Scott Brooks?” — Ernie.

That’s the question everyone associated with the Thunder is asking themselves currently. If the team makes it back to the NBA Finals then the franchise absolutely did the right thing. If it’s right back to the status quo in OKC, then they simply made a move for the sake of change. Which isn’t the best reason to part ways with a coach who has a career record of 338-207.

Brooks wasn’t a perfect coach by any means, but it’s doubtful that any other coach could have guided the Thunder to the playoffs this season with the brutal rash of injuries the roster suffered. I absolutely give him a pass on the 2014/15 campaign, but GM Sam Presti obviously disagreed with my point of view here. Honestly, Presti deserves as much of the blame for OKC’s issues as Brooks does. Perhaps more when seeing how well James Harden has performed for the Rockets since being dealt away for pennies on the dollar.

But the nature of the league is to place the initial blame for a team’s failure on the coach, which certainly occurred in this instance. Firing Brooks was also about angling to keep Kevin Durant in town when he hits free agency in 2016. It’s also a gambit I don’t believe will work, regardless of next season’s outcome for the Thunder. I firmly believe Durant will bolt OKC at his first opportunity.

To be fair though, seven years is a long time for players to listen to one coach. In a player-driven league like the NBA, there’s only so long that most coaches can remain effective. Coaches like Gregg Popovich are of course the exception, though winning multiple titles certainly helps matters. OKC missed its title window with the current roster, and it’s probably as good a time as any to hit the reset button. The team will likely see an uptick in performance next season as a result. Fresh blood tends to have a positive short-term impact, which should be the case in OKC. But even more important will be keeping the roster healthy. If the team’s stars like Durant and Russell Westbrook can remain on the court for the bulk of the season, the Thunder should be back in the playoffs in 2015/16…regardless of who is calling the plays on the sideline.

“Where do you see Roy Hibbert ending up next season?” — Johnny V.

Despite the Pacers dropping not at all subtle hints that they would really like Hibbert to decline his $15,514,031 player option for 2015/16, I just don’t see that happening. That is a ridiculously player-friendly salary that the big man would be borderline insane to pass up. While height will always be an asset in the league, there is little call for a slow-footed, offensively-challenged big man who is a surprisingly poor rebounder, and inconsistent rim protector. Especially one who makes over $15.5MM a season. This makes Hibbert’s contract virtually untradeable, which means the two parties are likely stuck together for one more season. Indiana would likely have to take back some awful contracts in return in order to move Hibbert, which would be counterproductive. Unless Larry Bird can fleece a team the way Masai Ujiri robbed the Knicks with the Andrea Bargnani trade, Hibbert will more than likely be in a Pacers uniform next season.

“At this point is Rajon Rondo really a better option at point guard for the Lakers next season than Jordan Clarkson?” — Malik

If it’s the Rondo we saw this season, and if it would require a max contract to ink him, then absolutely not. The jury is out on whether or not Rondo has fallen that far as a player, or if this season was simply an aberration. Remember, he began the season hurt and then never quite fit in with the young Celtics team he was a part of, and his stint in Dallas was a mild disaster.

Clarkson was a nice find for the Lakers, but also remember that he was putting up numbers on a very bad team. I really like Clarkson as a player, though I do believe he’ll regress a bit next season. He’s definitely a keeper, and should be a big part of the Lakers’ rotation in 2015/16, but I don’t see Los Angeles returning to glory with him as the starting point guard.

The “x-factor” in this situation is the rapidly aging Kobe Bryant, who has one or two seasons left in him at most. This puts added pressure on the franchise to maximize what time the Mamba has remaining. That means an upgrade at the point, and if the rumors hold, then that likely means a Rondo and Kobe pairing. I’m not sure how much Rondo has left in his tank, but watching Bryant and Rondo dealing with Nick Young‘s antics, if he remains in L.A., should make Los Angeles sports writers salivate at the potential drama that could result.

“If the Wolves nab the No. 1 overall pick, who should they select? Do they consider trading the pick in that instance?” — Salvatore

I think the Wolves need to go big with their selection this year, regardless of where they are picking. The team has a number of exciting players in the backcourt and at small forward, and center Nikola Pekovic is no lock to recover from his Achilles injury for next season, if at all. If Minnesota nabs the No. 1 overall pick, I would take Karl-Anthony Towns with it in a heartbeat. While Jahlil Okafor is also an intriguing option, the thought of adding Towns’ athleticism to their already potent mix is an exciting prospect. The Wolves would be amazing to watch in transition with the likes of Ricky Rubio, Andrew Wiggins, Zach LaVine, and Towns running the break. I think the Kentucky big man would be the absolute perfect fit in Minnesota.

As for dealing the pick, I don’t see the logic in it for this franchise. The team would be better served to develop a young core who will grow together, and hopefully reach their potential together as well. While dealing the pick could net Minnesota a few extra draft selections, they shouldn’t pass up a potential superstar just to add more depth and likely role-players. Trading for an established star could seem appealing, but unless it’s a player like DeMarcus Cousins, it would be counter productive to what Flip Saunders has been constructing. I say keep the pick and nab a potential young superstar.

That’s all the space that I have for this week. Thanks for all the questions and keep them coming! I’ll be back next week with another round of answers.

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Weekly Mailbag

Hoops Rumors Weekly Mailbag 4/12/15-4/18/15

April 18th, 2015 at 1:46pm CST by Eddie Scarito

In addition to our weekly chat, which Chuck Myron facilitates every Wednesday, we have added a second opportunity for you to hit us up with your questions in this, our weekly mailbag feature. Have a question regarding player movement, the salary cap, or the NBA draft? Drop me a line at HoopsRumorsMailbag@Gmail.com or @EddieScarito on Twitter. Now for this week’s inquiries:

“Do you see the Knicks signing Greg Monroe this summer? If so, what kind of a fit do you think he’ll be with New York?” — Vinny

I would definitely say that the Knicks are the favorites to sign the big man when he hits free agency this offseason. The team has more than enough cap space to offer Monroe a max deal, something he’ll likely be seeking this summer. I don’t happen to believe that Monroe is a max contract player, a sentiment many NBA teams are likely to share. But New York will be in full desperation mode after enduring all of the losses this campaign, so the franchise will be more apt to overpay for someone like Monroe.

As for how he would fit with the Knicks, the jury is still out. Team president Phil Jackson has indicated that the team is seeking players who can defend, which is in no way Monroe’s forte. I’m also not sold that Monroe and Carmelo Anthony would be a good pairing. Both players like to occupy similar spots on offense, and ‘Melo has been his best when playing the four. New York could use Monroe as a center, but then the team may as well lay out some red carpet in the lane at Madison Square Garden to make opposing players’ trips to the hoop even more accommodating. If Monroe does end up in New York he’ll be an upgrade to what they have had in the post in recent seasons, but I don’t see him and Anthony as a championship-caliber pairing.

“Which coaches do you see getting the axe this offseason?” — Sam R.

Now that the regular season is over we should start seeing some proverbial heads start to roll shortly. I don’t see too many vacancies opening up though, since Orlando, Denver, and Sacramento already changed coaches during the season. The Kings already filled their spot with George Karl, who was a great hire in my view. I don’t think James Borrego is retained by the Magic, nor do I think the Nuggets keep Melvin Hunt. Hunt has a better chance to stay on than Borrego does, but if he’s still running the show next season in Denver it will be because “plan A” failed.

As for the rest of the league, I think Scott Brooks is in real danger of being let go by the Thunder. That franchise probably needs to make a change at this point, and it will likely begin with a new coach. The only other coach who I think could be jettisoned is the Hornets’ Steve Clifford. The franchise had an extremely disappointing campaign, and Clifford could pay the price. I do think he’ll get one more season to turn things around, but wouldn’t be at all surprised if Clifford was let go. Flip Saunders could also end up firing himself so that he can concentrate more on his executive duties. Mike Malone to the Wolves would be a nice fit in that scenario. But my most likely non-interim coach to be let go is Brooks, though he probably wouldn’t be out of work for long.

“Which projected lottery pick this year is the most likely to be a bust?” — Carter

This is always a tough call, and it’s one that has cost numerous executives their jobs. But this one for me is an easy choice. I think this year’s candidate for biggest draft disappointment will be Latvian forward Kristaps Porzingis, who is currently projected as a top seven pick. Now, I will fully admit to being automatically skeptical of Euro players making the jump to the NBA. While there have been a number of notable exceptions, the washout rate is far too high for my tastes, and I wouldn’t risk an early lottery pick on such an unknown quantity.

Porzingis is uber-athletic, especially for his size. But it takes more than athleticism to make it in the NBA. All the scouting reports that I have read on Porzingis laud his physical tools, which are quite stellar. But he isn’t dominating competition overseas, which is a big red flag for me. While the overseas game has made incredible strides over the years, the competition and talent levels involved pale in comparison to what is awaiting Porzingis in the NBA. Draft history is on my side in predicting Porzingis won’t live up to the billing, though I hope I’m wrong. He’d be pretty fun to watch if he did live up to the hype.

“With the playoffs beginning this weekend let’s get this on record — who do you have making it to the NBA Finals? Who takes home the trophy this season?” — Arthur

I guess it’s prediction time. It really feels wide open this season, as each playoff team has a number of questions heading in. For the NBA Finals I’ll go with the Cavs against the Warriors (if they can stay healthy for once in the postseason). The Cavs are a flawed team, but I’m not betting against LeBron James and company when the spotlight is on. The Warriors have been the best team all season, but the playoffs are a whole different story. Many talented teams have fallen in the playoffs because of lack of experience. Golden State may be a season away, but I’m still going with them as my choice. As for who will be hoisting a championship banner to the rafters…I’ll go with the Cavaliers.

That’s all the space I have for this week. Thanks for all of the submissions! I’ll be back next week with more answers to your inquiries.

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Weekly Mailbag

Hoops Rumors Weekly Mailbag 4/5/15-4/11/15

April 11th, 2015 at 10:40am CST by Eddie Scarito

“It seems more and more like the college game isn’t producing quality NBA ready players like it used to. What do you think the league can do to improve the quality of the young players who turn pro?” — Scott

I don’t know if I would go so far to say that the NCAA isn’t turning out quality players any longer. It’s more the case of it taking longer for these players to be productive at the NBA level nowadays. With the single season trend for the most talented players ever increasing, there seems to be an overall deficiency at instilling the fundamentals of the game in today’s players. One can look at the AAU system as partly being at fault here, but whatever the actual cause is, fewer and fewer rookies are able to make an impact in the league these days from day one.

Raising the minimum draft age for players wouldn’t necessarily correct this issue though. That approach would probably result in more players taking the route that Emmanuel Mudiay did this season and signing overseas. What I believe is the best solution is for the NBA to ramp up its D-League operations significantly and essentially replace the NCAA in the player development process. This plan could take on a number of forms in its implementation.

Teams that draft players who are under the minimum age could then be required to place them in the D-League until they reach the required age. Taking this approach would allow the athletes more freedom to choose their path, as well as give them the ability to earn money sooner. Plus, teams would be directly responsible for developing their young players. This would also allow more time to teach the fundamentals of the game in a more relaxed environment, rather than having to do so at the NBA level during games or in the extremely limited practice time teams have during the season. Or players could simply enter the D-League via a draft with no NBA teams holding their rights, play a season or two until they reach the proper age, then they could simply apply for the NBA draft as they do now. Either way it would likely improve the quality of the rookies who enter the league.

“With all the drama between Tom Thibodeau and the Bulls’ front office…do you see Thibs in Chicago next season?” — Corey

The marriage between the two sides does appear to be quite strained and one of them is likely sleeping on the couch at this point, metaphorically speaking. But I just don’t see the two parties cutting ties just yet. Coach Thibs still has two years remaining on his deal, and I believe he’ll be on the sidelines in Chicago for one of them. I think Thibodeau stays with the Bulls next season and the two sides mutually agree to part ways after that. The only way I believe he’s gone after this season is if he flat out walks away from the team, and things behind the scenes would have to be much worse than rumored for that to happen.

“Do you think the Knicks will deal away their first-round pick? What about if it’s the No. 1 overall selection?“ — Tyler

As a Knicks fan let me say that I hope not! Part of New York’s problem as an organization is that it has eschewed player development to constantly chase big name free agents, as well as having wasted or traded away far too many draft picks. Don’t even get me started on the Andrea Bargnani trade and the franchise not having a first-rounder next season…..

But let me suppress my angst and answer the question. I don’t think the team would risk dealing away a top four pick, which is where the Knicks are all but assured to be selecting. There isn’t likely to be a player of Kevin Love‘s caliber available on the trade market this summer, so there would be little sense for Phil Jackson to trade away the player whom the team selects. Remember, thanks to the Stepien Rule, the Knicks can’t trade the pick, but can choose a player for another team and trade him after the draft is complete.

The only worthwhile deal that I could see coming together would be with the Kings for DeMarcus Cousins if Sacramento decides that he’s not a good fit with coach George Karl. That’s a trade I would absolutely make if I were the Knicks. Cousins can be a handful, but he’s also one of the top big men in the league. However, I seriously doubt this scenario will come to pass. This means Jackson will need to be spot on with how he uses the initial first-rounder of his career as an executive.

“Does the improvement of Jordan Clarkson mean the Lakers won’t look to sign a top-flight point guard this summer?” — Boone

I’m a big fan of Clarkson, and the Lakers surely got a steal in acquiring him last offseason. Having said that, if he’s the Lakers’ starting point guard next season something will have gone awry this summer for Los Angeles. Unless Kobe Bryant decides to retire this offseason, like it or not, the franchise is tied to an aged veteran who will take up $25MM worth of cap space next season. GM Mitch Kupchak will likely do everything under the sun this summer to acquire a star point guard. The team will almost assuredly make a run at Rajon Rondo, and is also likely to throw offer sheets at a number of restricted free agents who happen to man the point. While I think that Clarkson is absolutely a keeper for Los Angeles, the franchise needs to do all that it can to take advantage of Bryant’s remaining time on the court. That means trying to snag a veteran upgrade at the point this offseason.

That’s all the space I have for this week. Thanks for the submissions and please keep them coming. I’ll be back next week with more responses to your inquiries.

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Weekly Mailbag

Hoops Rumors Weekly Mailbag 3/29/15-4/4/15

April 4th, 2015 at 8:53am CST by Eddie Scarito

“What players helped their draft stock the most with their NCAA tournament performances?” — Matthew

While I don’t think the tournament impacts where players are selected quite as much as the pre-draft workouts do, a standout performance can definitely get a player’s name on the lips of scouts and GMs around the league. With that in mind, the players who I think helped their draft value the most were Sam Dekker (Wisconsin), Jakob Poeltl (Utah),and Karl-Anthony Towns (Kentucky).

Dekker really opened a number of eyes around the league with his 21.7 points and 5.5 rebounds per game during March Madness. He has also shown that he can play the stretch four role, which is a position that is continuing to grow in importance in today’s NBA. Dekker may have vaulted himself from being a late first round selection to hearing his name called in the late teens.

Poeltl showed a nice inside presence in his work against Jahlil Okafor of Duke during Utah’s tournament loss to the Blue Devils. Poeltl answered a number of questions with that game, and if he decides to leave school he’ll be off the board by pick No. 20. He’s a player who should probably return to school for another season though, since his post game is about as refined as mine is right now. If Poeltl continues to develop he could be a lottery pick in 2016.

As for Towns, he was already going to be a top three selection, so he hasn’t jumped all that far. He has been held back statistically by Kentucky’s platoon system and ridiculous depth this season, but in the tournament he’s really getting a chance to shine. He may have vaulted over Okafor for the top pick already. Once individual workouts begin his athleticism is likely to boost his stock even further. I’d say he’s probably going to end up going No. 1 overall at this point thanks to his late season production.

“If you were an NBA GM with the first overall draft pick…who would you take in June?” — Connor

The answer to that depends on which team I was selecting for. Roster composition is important, and if I were selecting for the Sixers for instance, I would focus on selecting a guard since they already have Joel Embiid and Nerlens Noel. But if I have to make a choice I would take Towns with the top overall pick. Selecting Okafor wouldn’t be a bad move by any means, but I firmly believe that Towns’ ceiling is much higher than Okafor’s as a two-way player in the NBA.

“Does Al Jefferson opt out of his deal this summer?” — Hank

That’s a tough one to call. Jefferson is 30-years-old, and has a ton of mileage on his legs. He will have to weigh the security of opting out and signing a long-term deal against risking injury next season to try and cash in on the 2016 cap increase money that will be out there. If Charlotte were a playoff team instead of struggling mightily this season, the chances of Jefferson opting in would be much greater than they are. The seriousness of his right knee injury could also play a big part in his decision. I’d say right now that the big man will likely opt out and test the market this summer.

“Where does Rajon Rondo end up playing next season?” — Lukas

I’ll say right off the bat that I don’t believe it will be in Dallas. Rondo hasn’t been a great fit there on the court, nor with coach Rick Carlisle. This will likely be the 29-year-old’s last chance at a big contract, unless he decides to ink a one-year deal with the hope of cashing in on the salary cap increase in 2016. So he’ll likely be shooting for a maximum salary deal this summer, which many around the league, and myself, don’t believe that he is worth. But desperation can do funny things to NBA GMs, and franchises like the Knicks and Lakers, who will have plenty of cap space this offseason, just may bite the bullet and pay Rondo what he wants. If I had to pick where Rondo will end up, I’ll go with the Lakers.

That’s all for this week. Thanks for continuing to fill up my inbox with all of your submissions. Please keep them coming! I’ll be back next week with more thoughts, opinions, and answers…

Hoops Rumors Weekly Mailbag 3/22/15-3/28/15

March 28th, 2015 at 10:12am CST by Eddie Scarito

“Do you see DeAndre Jordan commanding a max salary in free agency?” — Phil B.

I can certainly see Jordan seeking a max deal, but I’m not sure that he gets one. He’s having a great season, but the league doesn’t revolve around centers the way that it used to. Jordan will certainly be in line for a raise from the $11.4MM he is making this season. I just can’t see him being worth a $17MM+ annual salary. $15MM per feels about the right ballpark for him, though even that is a risk given how poorly big men age in the NBA.

The big unknown involved here is how the 2016 salary cap increase will change teams’ approaches this summer. There may be a few more franchises that will be willing to go into the luxury tax in 2015/16, knowing that the cap will increase significantly the following year. Plus, if upper tier salaries are going to jump as much as some speculate, Jordan inking a max deal this summer could end up looking like a bargain in three years time.

“What are the chances that John Calipari ends up coaching the Knicks next season?” — Tim

I’ll go with slim-to-none on this one. I just don’t see Calipari and Phil Jackson working well together. Plus, Calipari would likely ask for some level of control over personnel moves as part of his contract. That’s a likely deal-breaker in New York right now. I also don’t see the team giving up on Derek Fisher after a single season unless there are some serious philosophical differences that pop up between the coach and the front office. Plus, if Calipari actually wants to leave Kentucky, he can do much better than the Knicks for an NBA gig. Flip Saunders may want to get off of the sidelines in Minnesota and Coach Cal has a bit of experience developing young talent…

“Will both Monta Ellis and Rajon Rondo be in Dallas’ starting backcourt next season?” — Randall J.

It’s not looking good right now for the two to re-team next season in Dallas. The team’s offense has been flowing better with Rondo on the bench — not a great sign when talking about a point guard. I was willing to give the two players the benefit of the doubt, but it’s looking more and more like Ellis and Rondo just aren’t compatible. Rondo’s clashes with coach Rick Carlisle aren’t a great incentive for Rondo to want to return either. So there’s all of that.

But the factor that is usually the true determining one in these situations is money. Rondo is likely to seek a maximum salary deal, which isn’t something he’s likely to be worth at this stage of his career. I don’t see the Mavs offering that level of financial commitment to retain Rondo. With the Knicks and Lakers both set to have cap space and tons of desperation this summer, Rondo could be one of the beneficiaries. I think Rondo leaves Dallas for more zeroes on his paycheck.

As for Ellis, he has a tougher decision to make. The veteran guard has a player option worth $8.72MM for next season. It’s not clear yet whether or not he’ll opt out and try to secure a long-term deal. The cap is set to jump in 2016, so opting in and hitting the market that summer may hold more appeal. Out of the two players, Ellis is the one who is more likely to be back.

“Does J.R. Smith opt out of his deal this summer? Do you see him staying in Cleveland long-term?” — Alex V.

A couple of months ago I would have been sure that Smith would opt in on his $6,399,750 player option for 2015/16. I’m not so certain any more. That’s what competing for a contending team will do for a player’s energy level and stat line. Smith has fit in rather well in Cleveland, so there’s that to consider. He could opt in and try to cash in when the cap jumps during the summer of 2016. That would be the safe play. But if Smith has a stellar playoffs and can control his antics, he could be looking at a number of long-term offers. I’d speculate that the Mavs would be interested in signing Smith if Ellis departs as a free agent. My guess is that barring a spectacular individual playoff run, Smith opts in or works out a long-term deal with the Cavs.

“Give me your mock draft for the top five picks (using the current standings as the draft order)” — Aaron

It’s still a bit early to make an accurate mock draft. Quite a few things can change during the pre-draft process. But now that I’ve blanketed myself in the warmth of a disclaimer I’ll answer the question. Using Hoops Rumors’ Reverse Standings to determine the draft order, here’s how I see the first five picks shaking out…

Knicks — C Jahlil Okafor (Duke)
Timberwolves — F Karl-Anthony Towns (Kentucky)
Sixers — G Emmanuel Mudiay (China)
Lakers — G D’Angelo Russell (Ohio State)
Magic — F Kristaps Porzingis (Latvia)

That’s all the space I have for this week’s inquiries. Please keep all the submissions coming and I’ll be back next Saturday with more thoughts and opinions.

Hoops Rumors Weekly Mailbag 3/15/15-3/21/15

March 21st, 2015 at 1:05pm CST by Eddie Scarito

“Who might the Knicks actually be able to land in free agency this summer?” — Gerry

As a fellow Knicks fan I understand the pessimism in your phrasing. Phil Jackson will certainly be active in trying to land a number of big name, big ticket free agents this summer. Unfortunately, I don’t expect him to be all that successful though. Most, if not all, of this summer’s potential free agents would have to accept less money and a diminished chance at contention to come to New York…which isn’t a great start to any sales pitch. Jackson as an executive has little appeal to prospective signees, despite what the Knicks’ PR department would have you believe. To land free agents, Jackson will have to overpay just to have a fighting chance this summer. Keeping this in mind I would posit that Greg Monroe and Rajon Rondo would be the two players most likely to sign with New York. If I can only choose one, then I’ll go with Monroe. He’ll likely be seeking top dollar, a figure that not all league executives agree Monroe is worth, and I can easily see the Knicks being the ones to give it to him.

“What NBA team needs Devin Booker the most and what do you see him doing once he makes it to the NBA?” — Dustin

I don’t rate Booker as being a franchise cornerstone type of player at the NBA level, so to say a team needs him is perhaps a bit strong of a statement. It’s also not a given that Booker will leave school after this season. He really could use another year of development and would probably improve his draft position by staying at Kentucky for his sophomore campaign. But if Booker has a strong tournament, or if his people get a strong indication that he’ll be a surefire first-rounder, he’ll likely decide to leave school this year. But his 1-6 shooting performance against Hampton on Thursday night isn’t a great start on this front.

Booker isn’t really a great athlete, and this will limit his ability to be an effective pro over the long haul. He’ll have difficulty guarding the more athletic twos in the NBA, and creating his own shot will be a challenge as well. But the kid can definitely shoot, perhaps better than anyone in this year’s draft class, and that is a skill that can always find a place in the league. Booker will likely top out as an NBA sixth man because of his limitations. He’s only a freshman, so he may have a well of ability that hasn’t been tapped yet, but I don’t see him becoming an All-Star, nor a top of the line starter in the NBA.

The guard is currently projected as a mid-to-late first-rounder if he declares for the draft in June. Going by our current reverse standings that allows for some potentially interesting fits for Booker. A team like the Clippers, who are currently projected at the No. 25 spot would be a very good fit for Booker given their lack of bench production this season and need for floor spacers. Memphis could also use some depth in the backcourt, and the Grizzlies would be able to allow Booker significant D-League time during his rookie season, which he’ll need.

“How important do you think NCAA tournament performance is to a player’s draft stock?” — Vinny

While a solid tournament performance certainly doesn’t hurt a prospect’s draft position, it’s not necessarily a prime determining factor for the NBA draft. Individual pre-draft workouts are far more important to GMs and scouts than what a player does over a few games in March. There have been plenty of March heroes that have gone undrafted, or have ended up being busts in the NBA. Personally, I believe how a player performs under the bright lights of the tournament reflects more on his emotional makeup and character than on his actual playing ability. College teams can load up on defense and limit any player for a game or two, no matter how talented he is. A bad stat line or two isn’t going to knock a prospect out of being a lottery pick like a bad pre-draft workout can.

“Who should win the Rookie of the Year award for this season? Rank your top five finalists.” — Kelly

I think the ROTY award winner is easily the Wolves’ Andrew Wiggins. He has shown quite a bit of growth over the course of the season, and he just might end up making the Kevin Love trade look like a foolish deal for the Cavaliers. Much more so if Love changes his mind and leaves Cleveland after this season. Wiggins is a player whom Minnesota can and will build around. It should be pretty fun for Wolves fans in a few seasons thanks to Wiggins and the rest of the young talent Flip Saunders has acquired.

Here are my top five rankings for the Rookie of the Year award:

Andrew Wiggins (Timberwolves) 15.8 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 1.8 APG. .433/.324/.742
Elfrid Payton (Magic) 8.5 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 6.1 APG. .421/.250/.527.
Nerlens Noel (Sixers) 9.3 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 1.9 BPG. .453/.000/.608
Nikola Mirotic (Bulls) 9.2 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 1.1 APG. .402/.317/.801
Marcus Smart (Celtics) 7.9 PPG, 3.5 RPG, and 3.3 APG. .363/.341/.647.

That sounds the buzzer on this week’s column. Thanks for all of your submissions. Keep on sending in your questions and I’ll be back next Saturday with some more responses.

Hoops Rumors Weekly Mailbag 3/8/15-3/13/15

March 13th, 2015 at 9:28pm CST by Eddie Scarito

“Can you see the Knicks trading their lottery pick (after the draft) to Sacramento for DeMarcus Cousins since the Kings didn’t rule out trading him at the deadline?” — Rodney M.

I honestly don’t see the Kings parting ways with Cousins, who is one of the most talented big men in the league, unless a schism develops between him and coach George Karl that is deemed irreparable. But if given the chance, that’s a deal that Knicks president Phil Jackson should take immediately. Normally, I’m a big proponent of building teams through the draft, but the Knicks’ situation is a complicated one.

I wasn’t a fan of the Knicks re-signing Carmelo Anthony, and I still believe that New York would have been better served to work out a sign-and-trade for ‘Melo instead of tethering all its hopes to an aging, one-dimensional scorer. But the team is stuck with Anthony for the next few seasons, and to get the most out of team owner James Dolan’s investment in the forward, the Knicks need to acquire talent who can help them win immediately. There isn’t a player in this year’s draft, save for perhaps Willie Cauley-Stein of Kentucky, who could step in from day one and be a solid contributor. But he’s not top three pick material, which is where the Knicks will likely be selecting come June.

So if I’m the Knicks, I would explore all of my options with the pick, including trading it. Though the Kings are unlikely to bite and give up on Cousins without seeing what he can be under Karl’s tutelage. I certainly wouldn’t given his talent level.

“Where do you see JaVale McGee ending up?” — Quincy

The easy answer to this question is that he’ll go to the first team to offer him a player option for 2015/16. McGee doesn’t strike me as being picky at this point. He absolutely needs to catch on somewhere and rehabilitate his rep and value before the end of the season. His next contract hangs in the balance. There are a number of contenders who could absolutely use McGee’s skills on the court, but very few of those franchises likely want to deal with him off of the hardwood, where he has a reputation for being immature and difficult.

But not to cheat you on providing an answer, I would say that he’ll most likely end up in Texas with the Mavs or the Rockets. Both teams are willing to gamble on players with questionable maturity, and both could benefit from more depth in the middle.

“Do you see a chance that any player other than Jahlil Okafor becomes the No. 1 overall pick in this year’s draft?” — Stephen R.

Is there a chance? Absolutely. In fact, Okafor’s hold on the top pick is becoming more tenuous as the NCAA season wears on. It’s not because Okafor has disappointed, because he’s been exceptional for Duke this season. It’s more about potential. Okafor isn’t an elite athlete, nor a good defender for his size, which will limit his overall ceiling somewhat. He’ll be a fixture in the middle for years to come for the team that drafts him, but that doesn’t mean he’ll end up the best player in this draft. There are a growing number of scouts who believe that Karl-Anthony Towns will end up being the superior player in a few short years. Towns does possess the athleticism to evolve into someone quite special on the court. His offense is a work in progress, but he’s already a superior defender to Okafor. But the Duke big man gets the edge in maturity and overall polish over Towns.

The wildcard in this year’s draft will be the positional needs of the team that wins the NBA lottery. A team like the Sixers, who have Joel Embiid and Nerlens Noel in their frontcourt already, may find selecting Emmanuel Mudiay or D’Angelo Russell a more practical choice. Both guards have been mentioned at one time or another as being in contention to go No. 1 overall by various scouts. But barring an injury to Okafor between now and June, I still don’t foresee too many GMs taking a pass on adding Okafor to their roster if given the opportunity on draft night.

“Who do you think will be a sleeper pick in the NBA draft?” — Dustin

This is a funny sort of draft. Just about every player in the second-tier could be considered a sleeper depending on where they are selected. The crop this year is close in so many ways. But I’ll give you a few players who could end up surprising the league.

R.J. Hunter (Georgia State) — Guard
Jakob Poeltl (Utah) — Center
Zhou Qi (China) — Forward
Justin Anderson (Virginia) — Forward/Guard
Robert Upshaw (Washington) — Center

Both Hunter and Poeltl could be mid-to-late first-rounders, though Poeltl may come back for his sophomore season at Utah. Poeltl has a wealth of potential, but needs quite a bit of polish. Coming back for one more season would be a good move, especially given the wealth of big men in this year’s draft.

Hunter is a player who I believe will make a better pro than college player. The kid is fearless and he can and will shoot from anywhere in the arena. He’s hitting under 40% of his field goal attempts this season, which obviously isn’t great. But he’s a player who could turn into a big time scorer off the bench.

Anderson should end up being a mid first round pick as well, and he’s a player with quite a bit of upside and athleticism. As with most college wings, his outside shot needs more consistency, and he needs to figure out how to create his own shot better if he wants to succeed at the next level.

The last two on this list, Upshaw and Qi, are likely second-rounders. Upshaw has first round talent, but with the glut of big men available in this year’s draft, he’ll probably slide a bit as a result. His defense should translate very well to the NBA, but he needs some serious development on offense. Upshaw also has some character concerns. He was dismissed from Fresno State for multiple rules violations before attending Washington. But his talent will make him worthy of a gamble.

Qi is a bit of a wild card. He’s a fantastic athlete with a high skillset. The Chinese big man would be a great draft-and-stash candidate for a patient team. The 19-year-old is scary thin, and would not survive an NBA season until he added some weight and muscle. But Qi just may be the third most talented international player in this year’s draft behind Mario Hezonja and Kristaps Porzingis.

That’s all the space I have for now. I’ll be back next week to answer more of your questions. So please keep filling up my inbox with them in the meantime. Feel free to add to the discussion in the comments section below.

Hoops Rumors Weekly Mailbag 3/1/15-3/7/15

March 7th, 2015 at 10:28am CST by Eddie Scarito

“Now that JaVale McGee isn’t going to be a member of the Celtics, where does he end up playing this season?” — Andrew R.

The pairing that makes the most sense for both sides is for McGee to sign with the Warriors. With Golden State a serious title contender this season, and given the injury histories of Andrew Bogut and David Lee, adding a big with McGee’s ability would be a very wise move from an on-the-court perspective. It’s in the locker room where McGee becomes a risk, with Warriors coach Steve Kerr even making it a point to comment that he doesn’t want to risk upsetting the team’s excellent chemistry. I’m not sure if he was referring to McGee specifically, but probably so. I do think McGee would behave himself for the remainder of the season in Oakland. With him being in need of employment next year, McGee has far too much to lose.

From McGee’s perspective, joining the Warriors would be a wise career move for the big man. Not only would he have the chance to chase a ring with this extremely talented team. But if McGee behaves like a professional and answers the bell when he is on the court for the remainder of the season, then his next contract will get a healthy boost as a result. I should note that Golden State currently has the league maximum 15 players on its roster, so someone would need to be waived in order to add McGee.

“Do you think Brian Shaw will get another shot at being a head coach?” — Curtis

Shaw had a tough situation in Denver, and his old school personality was not a great fit with the group of players currently on the team’s roster. I put a lot of the blame on the players for Shaw getting the boot, but NBA coaches also need to be able to overcome obstacles of this nature. But this was Shaw’s first head coaching gig and I’m sure he learned quite a bit that will help him out in the future. There are a number of coaches who failed at their first job only to turn things around when given a second opportunity. Shaw isn’t a bad coach, he just needs more seasoning in how to manage players.

I do see Shaw getting another shot, seeing how the league loves to recycle. But he’ll most likely need to go the assistant coach route for at least a season or two before he’ll be seriously considered to take over another team. Look for Shaw to possibly end up as an assistant with the Knicks, a move which has already been speculated about by Marc Berman of The New York Post. If Fisher can’t turn things around next season, who knows, maybe Shaw slides into his spot on the bench. It’s the Knicks, so anything is possible…

“Who’s the next head coach you see getting his walking papers?” — Tyreese J.

The answer to this question depends on whether or not you want to include interim coaches to the list. If so, then the Magic’s James Borrego is the coach most likely to be let go of first. But if we are talking about a non-interim coach, then I would have to say that the Hornets’ Steve Clifford would be my pick, with OKC’s Scott Brooks a close second.

Clifford had a great start to his career, guiding Charlotte to a 43-39 record and a surprise playoff berth last season. An accomplishment that is somewhat diluted when realizing Charlotte plays in the Eastern Conference. But his encore isn’t going so well, with the team sitting at a disappointing 27-33. Clifford may get one more season, but his seat is definitely one that could get hot rather quickly. As for Brooks, unless the Thunder make it to the conference finals, I believe the team will bring in a new face and voice to coach the team. Someone who will likely require future free agent Kevin Durant‘s seal of approval to get the job, since OKC won’t do anything to jeopardize its shot at re-signing the forward in the summer of 2016.

“In order, who are the five best point guards in the 2015 NBA draft?” — Jimmy P.

It’s not necessarily a banner year for drafting at the one-spot, seeing as there are only about eight point guards in this year’s NBA draft who are likely to stick in the league. But that doesn’t mean a few teams won’t be able to snag a useful player at the position. As requested, here are my top five…

Emmanuel Mudiay (China)
D’Angelo Russell (Ohio State)
Tyus Jones (Duke)
Jerian Grant (Notre Dame)
Delon Wright (Utah)

Out of this group only Mudiay and Russell have star potential, with Mudiay possibly being the best player in the entire draft. It’s hard to tell given Mudiay’s limited body of work, but this player can be something special. The remaining three players on my list will all need some development time, but each could turn out to be an extremely solid pro. I should note that Russell is playing shooting guard in college, but he is projected as a point guard in the NBA.

“How do you rate the strength of the 2015 draft against the way too overhyped class of 2014?” — Kev

While I do think that in a few season’s time the 2014 draft class will prove themselves worthy of the attention they received, the 2015 crop of players is possibly the deeper of the two. The top four players in this year’s draft (Mudiay, Russell, Jahlil Okafor, and Karl-Anthony Towns) all have star potential, and their ceilings could actually be higher than last year’s group of draftees. After the big four is a scrum of about 10-15 players who are relatively interchangeable right now as far as draft position goes. This level of depth is a big reason why I am sweating doing my mock draft this year. Once individual pre-draft workouts begin that will hopefully change a bit, but the second tier in the 2015 draft is quite intriguing, and could end up being superior to last year’s. There should be a number of late first round value picks made this June, which should make for an exciting draft.

Well folks, that’s all the space I have for this week. Keep sending in your questions and I’ll see you back here next Saturday.

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