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Update On Traded 2013 First-Round Picks

We're about halfway through the 2012/13 regular season, with many teams having already reached the 41-game mark, and the remaining clubs set to get there within the next few days. At this point, the sample size is certainly large enough to take teams' win-loss records seriously and make reasonable predictions about how the rest of the year will play out.

For some teams, the final place in the standings will impact whether or not they keep their first-round picks in 2013. The Timberwolves, for instance, will send their '13 first-rounder to the Suns if it doesn't land in the top 13. At the moment, according to our tentative 2013 draft order, the T-Wolves' pick is projected to land at exactly 13th overall, meaning Minnesota would keep it if the season ended today and the draft order held to form.

Here's an update on the likelihood of each of the traded 2013 first-round picks changing hands:

Traded picks likely to stay put:

Team: Bobcats (10-32)
Traded pick to: Bulls
Protection: Top-12
Current projection: 2nd

Team: Kings (16-27)
Traded pick to: Cavaliers
Protection: Top-13
Current projection: 8th

Team: Pistons (16-26)
Traded pick to: Bobcats
Protection: Top-14
Current projection: 9th

Team: Mavericks (18-24)
Traded pick to: Thunder
Protection: Top-20
Current projection: 12th

Traded picks likely to change hands:

Team: Warriors (26-15)
Traded pick to: Jazz
Protection: Top-6
Current projection: 24th

Team: Grizzlies (27-14)
Traded pick to: Timberwolves
Protection: Top-14
Current projection: 26th

Team: Heat (27-12)
Traded pick to: Cavaliers
Protection: Top-10
Current projection: 27th

Still up in the air:

Team: Raptors (15-27)
Traded pick to: Thunder
Protection: Top-3 and 15-30
Current projection: 7th

Team: 76ers (17-25)
Traded pick to: Heat
Protection: Top-14
Current projection: T-10th

Team: Lakers (17-25)
Traded pick to: Suns/Cavs
Protection: None
Current projection: T-10th

Team: Timberwolves (17-22)
Traded pick to: Suns
Protection: Top-13
Current projection: 13th

Team: Rockets (22-22)
Traded pick to: Hawks
Protection: Top-14
Current projection: 14th

Team: Trail Blazers (21-21)
Traded pick to: Bobcats
Protection: Top-12
Current projection: 16th

Additional notes:

  • It's highly unlikely that the Raptors' pick will reach the 15-30 range that would protect it. However, it's still possible that Toronto could luck out in the lottery and jump into the top three, which is why I have that pick listed as questionable.
  • The Lakers' first-rounder will head directly to the Suns if L.A. misses the playoffs. If the Lakers sneak into the postseason, the Cavs will have the option of swapping Miami's first-round pick with the Lakers' pick, in which case Phoenix would end up with the Heat pick. So while that Lakers' pick is a lock to change hands, it's not clear yet which team will land it.
  • The Sixers' pick is trending toward likely to stay put, but for now I don't want to rule out the possibility of an Andrew Bynum return and a late-season surge.
  • Not all of these draft picks were traded directly to the receiving team by the sending team. The Raptors' and Mavericks' picks, for instance, were owned by Houston before being sent to the Thunder in the James Harden trade.

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