Ten Postseason Seeds Up For Grabs On Final Day Of Regular Season
While we’ve known which 20 NBA teams will be competing in the 2025/26 postseason for some time, 10 seeds are still in flux entering April 12, the final day of the 2025/26 regular season. Most importantly, three Eastern Conference teams are still vying for the final guaranteed playoff spot ahead of Sunday’s slate of games, which will see all 30 teams take the floor.
Here are the current playoff and play-in standings in both conferences, as well as where each team could finish, per the league (Twitter links).
Eastern Conference:
- Detroit Pistons (59-22)
- Boston Celtics (55-26)
- New York Knicks (53-28)
- Cleveland Cavaliers (51-30)
- Atlanta Hawks (46-35) — fifth or sixth
- Toronto Raptors (45-36) — fifth, sixth, seventh or eighth
- Orlando Magic (45-36) — sixth, seventh or eighth
- Philadelphia 76ers (44-37) — sixth, seventh or eighth
- Charlotte Hornets (43-38) — ninth or 10th
- Miami Heat (42-39) — ninth or 10th
Western Conference:
- Oklahoma City Thunder (64-17)
- San Antonio Spurs (62-19)
- Denver Nuggets (53-28) — third or fourth
- Los Angeles Lakers (52-29) — third or fourth
- Houston Rockets (51-30)
- Minnesota Timberwolves (48-33)
- Phoenix Suns (44-37)
- Portland Trail Blazers (41-40) — eighth or ninth
- Los Angeles Clippers (41-40) — eighth or ninth
- Golden State Warriors (37-44)
Notes: Teams in bold are locked in to their current seeds. A top-six seed ensures a guaranteed playoff spot, while the Nos. 7-10 teams will compete in the play-in tournament to determine the seventh and eighth seeds in each conference.
The most critical matchup Sunday is Brooklyn at Toronto. If the Raptors win, they can finish no worse than sixth place, securing the final guaranteed playoff berth.
The Hawks have ruled out most of their top players ahead of Sunday’s game at the Heat after securing a guaranteed playoff spot on Friday, tweets Brad Rowland of Locked on Hawks. That matters for Miami, because if it beats Atlanta and the Hornets lose at New York, the Heat would move ahead of Charlotte due to a head-to-head tiebreaker. That said, the Knicks will be playing without four of their five starters tonight, and if the Hornets win, they stay at No. 9.
It would be shocking if the Raptors don’t win Sunday, since the tanking Nets have already ruled out nine players (a 10th is doubtful) and have an incentive to lose the game. We’ll get more into that shortly.
Still, if the Raptors do lose Sunday’s game, it opens the door for the Magic or Sixers to move up to No. 6. A Raptors loss combined with a Magic win at Boston — the Celtics are likely to be without their top-seven rotation members — would see Orlando earn the guaranteed playoff berth. The 76ers, who face Milwaukee, need to win and need Toronto and Orlando to lose to move up two spots.
If the Hawks, Raptors, Magic and Sixers all win, they will finish where they currently are in the standings.
In the West, the scenarios are more straightforward. If the Nuggets win at San Antonio, they stay at No. 3. If they lose and the Lakers beat the Jazz, Denver and Los Angeles will switch places in the standings.
The Trail Blazers hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Clippers, so if they beat Sacramento tonight they will finish No. 8. The Clippers could move up if they beat Golden State and Portland loses to the Kings.
Lottery odds and traded draft picks
At the other end of the standings, the Wizards (17-64) have clinched the worst record in the league and thus have the top draft-lottery floor, notes Josh Robbins of The Athletic. Washington has a 52.1% chance at landing a top-four pick in the 2026 draft lottery and 47.9% odds at No. 5, which is the worst selection the team can end up with.
The Pacers (19-62) and Nets (20-61) are also guaranteed to finish with bottom-three records and will have identical 52.1% odds at moving into the top four, including a 14.0% chance at No. 1 overall. If the Nets lose this evening and the Pacers beat Detroit, the two teams would tie and a coin flip would determine which team has the second-best lottery floor. The winner of the coin flip can finish no worse than sixth in the draft lottery, while the loser can finish no worse than seventh.
The Clippers will be hoping the Pacers lose tonight, since Indiana will send its 2026 first-round pick to L.A. if it lands outside the top four. The Pacers will retain the pick if it stays in its protected range (top four).
Several other lottery situations are still in flux entering Sunday. The Jazz and Kings are currently tied for the fourth-worst record (22-59), the Grizzlies and Mavericks are tied for the sixth-worst record (25-56), and the Pelicans (26-55) have a chance at making the latter situation a three-way tie. The Hawks will be hoping the Pelicans lose and Grizzlies and Mavericks win, since they control the better of New Orleans’ or Milwaukee’s first-rounders.
Utah will send its first-round pick to the Thunder if it’s not in the top eight. But even if the Jazz finish with the NBA’s fifth-worst record (or finish tied for the fourth-worst record and lose a coin flip), the odds of their pick landing at No. 9 would be minuscule (0.6%).
There’s a chance the Bulls (31-50) and Bucks (32-49) could have a coin flip for the ninth and tenth spots. It would require Chicago to win at Dallas and Milwaukee to lose at Philadelphia.
The four other lottery teams will be the four clubs that are eliminated in the play-in tournament.
Projected NBA Taxpayers For 2025/26
As we outlined in February, a total of 14 teams projected to be taxpayers prior to an eventful trade deadline week, with the 16 non-taxpayers on track to receive about $13.8MM apiece in tax distribution money at that point.
However, the Celtics, Nuggets, Suns, Mavericks, Sixers, Magic, and Raptors all ducked below the luxury tax line with their pre-deadline transactions, while a few other teams remained in the tax but took steps to significantly reduce their end-of-season bills.
As a result, seven NBA teams project to finish over the luxury tax line in 2025/26, per ESPN’s Bobby Marks (Twitter link).
Here are those seven clubs, along with their projected tax penalties:
- Cleveland Cavaliers ($68.7MM)
- Golden State Warriors ($67.9MM) *
- New York Knicks ($44.4MM)
- Los Angeles Lakers ($22.2MM) *
- Houston Rockets ($7.2MM)
- Los Angeles Clippers ($6.7MM) *
- Minnesota Timberwolves ($6MM)
Total: $223.1MM
Note: Teams marked with an asterisk are paying repeater tax rates.
While the projected tax payments are quite similar to the ones from a couple months ago, the total is up slightly overall. That’s because the Warriors, Rockets and Timberwolves signed players to fill out the back ends of their rosters. The Lakers will undoubtedly finalize their roster today — they have one standard opening ahead of Sunday’s deadline.
Based on the current figures from Marks, each non-taxpayer is projected to receive a payout of about $4.9MM. That figure is determined by cutting the total league-wide tax penalties in half, then dividing them evenly among the non-taxpaying teams (in this case, 23 clubs). The projected payout was at $4.8MM in February.
In 2024/25, 10 taxpayers paid a total of $461.2MM in penalties and the 20 non-taxpayers reportedly received $11.5MM apiece. This season’s projected distribution payment of $4.9MM is the lowest figure since 2020/21, according to Marks.
It’s worth noting that the tax penalties could still change again before the 2025/26 league year ends. According to Marks (Twitter links), 36 players had a total of 133 different incentives in their contracts entering 2025/26, and 15 of those bonuses are still up in the air entering the final day of the regular season. Some of those bonus situations may not be resolved until the playoffs end.
The Warriors, Lakers, and Clippers would all be subject to repeater penalties in 2026/27 if they’re taxpayers again next season. Additionally, the Bucks, Celtics, Suns, and Nuggets would pay repeater rates if they’re in the tax in ’26/27, since all four clubs were in the tax for three straight years from 2023-25. They’ll each need to spend one more season as a non-taxpayer in order to reset the repeater clock.
Free Agent Stock Watch: L.A. Clippers
For the rest of the regular season and postseason, Hoops Rumors is taking a closer look at players who will be free agents – or could become free agents – during the 2026 offseason. We’ll consider whether each player’s stock is rising or falling due to his performance and several other factors.
Today, we’re focusing on a handful of players on the Clippers, who have 10 potential free agents this summer, tied for the second-most in the NBA.
Clippers Still Have Hope Of Reaching Eighth Seed
- After falling to Portland on Friday, the Clippers need to beat Golden State in the season finale to have any hope of moving up to the No. 8 seed, notes Janis Carr of The Orange County Register (subscription required). L.A. fell into an early 20-point deficit against the Blazers, but rallied to take the lead before collapsing late in the game. Now the team will need help to avoid starting the postseason on the brink of elimination. “I mean, we just got to do it the Clippers’ way, the hard way every time. Never easy,” coach Tyronn Lue said. “We are still in it and we’re OK. And like I said, they beat us. They’re a good team and Tiago (Splitter, Portland’s interim coach) has done a hell of a job this season filling in. They played better than us.”
Wemby, Kawhi Meet 65-Game Criteria; Jokic One Game Away
Spurs big man Victor Wembanyama returned on Friday from a one-game absence due to a rib contusion and played 26 minutes in a win over Dallas, ensuring that he has met the requirements for the 65-game rule and will now be eligible for postseason awards, as Tim Reynolds of The Associated Press writes.
Wembanyama has technically logged 20-plus minutes in just 62 regular season games this season, but he also surpassed the 15-minute mark in two additional appearances, which count toward the minimum. Additionally, he gets credit for playing 25 minutes in December’s NBA Cup final, even though that game isn’t considered a regular season contest.
With the Spurs locked into the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference, it seems unlikely that Wembanyama would have suited up for Friday’s matchup with Dallas if not for the 65-game rule.
“I tried to protect (the injured rib) as much as possible while still being respectful of the game,” he said after racking up 40 points, 13 rebounds, and five assists in the victory, per ESPN’s Michael C. Wright. “But it was OK. It didn’t bother me that much, just a few times where it was a specific moment or specific hit where it was painful.”
Wembanyama, who has averaged 25.0 PPG, 11.5 RPG, 3.1 APG, and a league-leading 3.1 BPG for the 62-19 Spurs, looks like a lock to win Defensive Player of the Year and earn All-NBA honors, almost certainly as a first-teamer. He also should show up on most – if not all – Most Valuable Player ballots.
Another MVP candidate, Nuggets center Nikola Jokic, was held out of Friday’s matchup with Oklahoma City due to right wrist injury management, meaning he’ll have to play at least 15 minutes in Sunday’s regular season finale in order to reach the 65-game threshold. While that’s certainly possible, head coach David Adelman suggested after Friday’s win that it’s not a lock, according to Reynolds. Adelman suggested that an “adult conversation” will take place prior to tip-off on Sunday.
“Obviously, the success in the playoffs matters more than anything else,” Adelman said. “But this rule stares at us right now. And so, we’ve got to make a proper decision and we need to go in there with a real plan of, ‘This is what it’s going to be.’ Either he gets those minutes, or we say, ‘Let’s just move on.'”
Interestingly, the Spurs and Nuggets will face one another on Sunday in San Antonio. And even though Wembanyama has already met the award eligibility criteria and Jokic hasn’t, San Antonio may be the team more motivated to win Sunday’s game, since doing so could push Denver into the No. 4 spot in the West (assuming the Lakers beat Utah). That would put the Lakers, instead of the Nuggets, on the Spurs’ side of the Western Conference playoff bracket.
Ahead of Sunday’s slate of games, here are a few more updates on the 65-game rule and award eligibility, with a hat tip to ESPN’s Bobby Marks (Twitter link):
- Clippers star Kawhi Leonard played over 37 minutes on Friday, marking his 65th appearance of the season and making him award-eligible. Although Leonard now looks like a safe bet to make an All-NBA team, Friday’s outcome was a disappointing one, as Portland beat L.A. to take control of the No. 8 spot in the Western Conference standings.
- Also becoming award-eligible on Friday as a result of meeting the 65-game criteria were Cavaliers big man Evan Mobley, Pistons wing Ausar Thompson, and Warriors forward Draymond Green. All three players are candidates to earn All-Defensive votes this season.
- Another All-Defensive candidate, Thunder swingman Luguentz Dort, narrowly surpassed the 20-minute threshold on Friday and will need to do so again on Sunday in order to be eligible for postseason awards.
- Trail Blazers All-Star forward Deni Avdija will have to play at least 15 minutes on Sunday in order to meet the 65-game criteria. He’ll likely receive All-NBA and Most Improved Player consideration if he qualifies.
And-Ones: NBA Awards Picks, G League Awards
Reigning Most Valuable Player Shai Gilgeous-Alexander claims two awards on the unofficial ballot of Dan Devine of Yahoo Sports: MVP and Clutch Player of the Year.
To be clear, Devine does have an official vote for year-end awards, but those ballots aren’t sent out until the regular season concludes on April 12. Devine also notes that he may be forced to change some of his picks, depending on which players are eligible.
Victor Wembanyama, for example, needs to play at least 20 minutes in one of San Antonio’s remaining two games to be eligible for awards consideration. The French big man is Devine’s choice for Defensive Player of the Year and is his runner-up for MVP, ahead of Nikola Jokic.
Kon Knueppel (Rookie of the Year) and Nickeil Alexander-Walker (Most Improved Player) are a couple of Devine’s other awards picks.
Here are a few more awards-related stories and announcements:
- There’s quite a bit of overlap between Devine’s awards picks and the tentative selections of Zach Harper of The Athletic. Both writers have Joe Mazzulla, J.B. Bickerstaff and Mitch Johnson as the three finalists, in order of how they finish, for Coach of the Year, and Keldon Johnson, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Tim Hardaway Jr. as their top three picks for Sixth Man of the Year.
- Michael Pina of The Ringer lists his three All-NBA, two All-Defensive, and two All-Rookie teams. Pina’s first-team All-NBA picks are Kawhi Leonard, Jaylen Brown, Gilgeous-Alexander, Wembanyama and Jokic; his All-Defensive First Team selections are Wembanyama, Derrick White, Scottie Barnes, Ausar Thompson and Chet Holmgren; and his top-five rookies are Knueppel, Cooper Flagg, VJ Edgecombe, Dylan Harper and Derik Queen.
- The NBA G League has announced its All-Defensive and All-Rookie teams, which are each comprised of five players (Twitter links via the NBA). The All-Defensive selections are Jamarion Sharp (Texas Legends), Chris Manon (South Bay Lakers), Alijah Martin (Raptors 905), Andersson Garcia (Mexico City Capitanes) and Jalen Slawson (Noblesville Boom), while the All-Rookie team consists of Raptors 905 standout Martin, Norchad Omier and Sean Pedulla of the San Diego Clippers, Keshon Gilbert (College Park Skyhawks) and RJ Davis (South Bay Lakers). Martin, Manon, Slawson (Pacers), Omier and Pedulla are on two-way contracts with their respective NBA teams.
Thunder Secure West’s No. 1 Seed For Third Straight Season
The Spurs have been on an absolute heater since the start of February, winning 29 of 32 games during that stretch, but it won’t be enough to catch the Thunder in the regular season standings.
On Wednesday, shortly after San Antonio won its 61st game of the season, Oklahoma City picked up its 64th victory, beating the Clippers in L.A. by a score of 128-110. With only two games left in the regular season, the Thunder now can’t be caught for the No. 1 seed and will finish atop the Western Conference for a third straight year. They’ve also secured the NBA’s best record, which means they’ll have home court advantage in all of their playoff series this spring, including – potentially – the Finals.
The Thunder have won 19 of their past 20 games and have become just the third team in NBA history to compile at least 64 wins in back-to-back seasons, notes Brandon Rahbar of Daily Thunder (Twitter link). The only other two franchises to achieve that feat were the Bulls, who did it from 1995-97, and the Warriors, who won at least 67 games in three straight seasons from 2014-17.
“It’s impressive,” Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander said of the team’s regular season success, per Tim MacMahon of ESPN. “Obviously, none of it means anything if you don’t win in the end, and you know that. But teams that win in the end have some of the same characteristics and traits and check off the same boxes. So checking off those boxes is kind of just like knowing we’re headed in the right direction. Obviously, we’re far from the finish line of where we want to go, but like I said, it lets us know we’re heading right there.”
With the Thunder now locked into the No. 1 seed and the Spurs having clinched No. 2, they’ll face the two teams that come out of the play-in tournament in the first round of the playoffs.
Phoenix’s win over Dallas on Wednesday ensured that the Suns will enter the play-in tournament as the No. 7 seed, meaning they’ll host the No. 7/8 game and would get a second home game against the No. 9/10 winner if they lose that first contest. The Warriors are locked into the No. 10 seed in the West and will have to win two road games to make the playoffs, while the Clippers and Trail Blazers continue to jockey for No. 8.
The Timberwolves‘ loss to Orlando on Wednesday also guaranteed that Minnesota will finish sixth in the Western Conference standings. The Nuggets are in the driver’s seat for No. 3, with a two-game lead over the Rockets and Lakers.
Over in the East, the Hawks could’ve clinched a playoff berth with a win in Cleveland on Wednesday, but their fourth-quarter comeback attempt came up short. Atlanta still currently holds the No. 5 seed in the East with two games left to play, but the Raptors, Magic, and Sixers – in that order – are all within 1.5 games, and the Hawks will face the Cavaliers again on Friday.
NBA Tells 13 Teams To Look For New Regional TV Deals
The NBA has informed the 13 teams affiliated with Main Street Sports Group that they’re free to seek new in-market media rights deals ahead of the 2026/27 season, reports Tom Friend of Sports Business Journal.
Main Street, previously known as Diamond Sports Group, runs FanDuel Sports Network, which broadcasts local and regional TV games for the Thunder, Spurs, Pistons, Cavaliers, Clippers, Heat, Timberwolves, Magic, Hornets, Hawks, Pacers, Grizzlies, and Bucks. However, the company is headed for insolvency and will discontinue broadcasting for those teams when the regular season concludes on April 12.
“FanDuel Sports Network has reached agreements with the NBA and NHL to broadcast games and other programming through the end of the 2026 NBA regular season and the end of the first round of the NHL playoffs,” a Main Street Sports Group spokesperson said in a statement to Sports Business Journal.
“We are preparing to wind down our operations upon seasons’ end unless we reach a strategic transaction. We’re pleased to finish out the NBA and NHL seasons, and we appreciate the collaborative relationships we have enjoyed with our team and league partners as well as the connections we have fostered with local fans.”
While this has been an expected outcome for months, it leaves nearly half of the teams in the league without in-market broadcasting contracts for next season. According to Friend, the 13 teams could opt for over-the-air channels or streaming options (or both), but whichever route they take, the league has been urging those clubs to sign one-year agreements or to at least have an opt-out after one season, so they can join the streaming hub for local broadcasts the NBA plans to launch down the line.
While previous reporting indicated the NBA might try to launch that streaming RSN hub for 2026/27, it didn’t come up at last month’s Board of Governors meetings, Friend writes, and teams are operating as though it won’t be ready until ’27/28 at the earliest. DAZN has been aggressively reaching out to those 13 clubs to try and secure media rights with an eye on possibly running the streaming RSN platform.
As Friend details, DAZN could have competition for that national streaming project, with Amazon, YouTube TV and the ESPN app all potentially in the mix. DAZN also has competition for local rights, as multiple teams are considering streaming-only options instead of having over-the-air broadcasts. Victory+ (streaming only), ViewLift (Altitude for Denver and Monumental for Washington) and Kiswe (Jazz) are the other companies vying for regional streaming projects.
None of the 13 teams have received rights fee payments from Main Street in 2026, but multiple sources tell friend each club could receive up to 60% of its lost TV money once dissolution agreements are finalized with the NBA and Main Street.
Those lost payments impacted the latest salary cap projection for 2026/27, decreasing it by $1MM. It’s unclear whether the projection might bounce back slightly if part of that lost money is recouped or if that was already factored into the most recent estimate.
Pacers Sports and Entertainment CEO Mel Raines confirmed to Dustin Dopirak of The Indianapolis Star that Indiana is seeking a new broadcast partner for next season.
“We’re throwing a very wide net and looking to both potential over-the-air partners and direct-to-consumer partners and looking at every possible option to reach as many of our fans as we can next season over local television,” Raines said.
Pacific Notes: Doncic, Jackson, Harris, Gillespie
If Lakers star Luka Doncic can’t play the remainder of the regular season — which seems likely due to his hamstring injury — he would be the first scoring leader to not make an All-NBA team since 1976, according to Tim Reynolds of The Associated Press.
Doncic needs to play in one more game to reach the 65-game threshold for All-NBA consideration. The star guard is averaging 33.5 points per game, nearly two more than Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (31.6), who’s second in the league. In 1976, Bob McAdoo won his third consecutive scoring title and was second in the MVP race but didn’t make All-NBA.
On a related topic, Doncic’s absence will test the team’s depth, Thuc Nhi Nguyen of the Los Angeles Times points out. Marcus Smart has missed the last six games with an ankle sprain, though he could return this weekend. Bronny James could see his backcourt role expand in Doncic’s absence.
Here’s more from the Pacific Division:
- The Clippers, who are already dealing with a number of frontcourt injuries, may not have Isaiah Jackson for the rest of the season. Jackson has a high ankle sprain and will not join the team on its road trip. He will be out at least one week, Janis Carr of the Orange County Register tweets.
- The Kings’ NBA G League GM, Gabriel Harris, is heading to the college ranks, as he’ll be named the University of Memphis Tigers’ general manager, Michael Scotto of HoopsHype tweets. Harris and the Stockton Kings won the 2025 G League championship.
- Collin Gillespie, who is headed to free agency this summer, set the Suns’ franchise record for three-pointers in a season on Thursday night, according to The Associated Press. Gillespie set the mark in the second quarter of the Suns’ 127-107 loss to the Hornets. He made his 227th three-pointer from the wing, surpassing the record of 226 threes, set by Quentin Richardson in the 2004/05 season. “It’s a great accomplishment,” Gillespie said. “And I’m extremely grateful and thankful to everybody here for helping me, but at the end of the day, it doesn’t really mean much right now with the loss.”
NBA G League Announces ROY, DPOY, COY Award Winners
Clippers two-way guard Sean Pedulla has been named the NBA G League’s Rookie of the Year for the 2025/26 season, the league announced in a press release.
Pedulla, who went undrafted out of Mississippi last June, averaged 23.6 points, 6.7 assists, 5.0 rebounds and 1.6 steals in 28 combined games (32.0 MPG) with the Rip City Remix (the Trail Blazers‘ affiliate) and the San Diego Clippers this season. He posted a shooting line of .443/.369/.845.
Pedulla ranked first in points per game and second in assists per game among rookies who qualified.
The 23-year-old signed a two-way contract with Los Angeles in February. He has made four NBA appearances with the Clippers this season, averaging 3.3 PPG in 5.8 MPG.
Raptors two-way guard Alijah Martin and Clippers two-way forward Norchad Omier finished second and third in voting for the award, respectively, per the NBA (Twitter link).
The NBAGL also announced the Defensive Player of the Year and Head Coach of the Year award winners. Dallas Legends (Mavericks’ affiliate) center Jamarion Sharp won the former award, while Mexico City Capitanes coach Vitor Galvani won the latter.
Sharpe averaged 7.1 PPG, 7.3 RPG, and a league-high 3.9 BPG across 25 regular season appearances for the Legends (24.9 MPG). Lakers two-way guard Chris Manon and Martin of the Raptors finished second and third in voting, respectively.
Galvani guided the Capitanes to a 24-12 record in his first season with the team, who entered the G League playoffs as the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference. It’s the first NBAGL playoff appearance for the league’s lone independent club.
Greensboro Swarm (Hornets‘ affiliate) head coach DJ Bakker and Osceola Magic head coach Dylan Murphy finished second and third in voting, respectively.
All three awards were voted on by G League head coaches and general managers, according to the NBA.