As a third-year player, Greg Monroe will be entering the final season of his rookie contract in July, making him eligible to sign a long-term extension with the Pistons. However, agent David Falk tells Vincent Goodwill of the Detroit News that his client will likely hit restricted free agency the following summer rather than re-upping with the Pistons in the offseason.
"Greg isn't gonna go backwards between his third and fourth year," Falk said. "I don't think I've ever done an extension after a third year. In the '90s you maxed out a guy after his second, but the [CBA] rules are different now."
We saw eight rookie-scale extensions signed during the 2012 offseason, so there are certainly players and agents whose opinions differ from Falk's. Financial security and the risk of injury are a couple reasons why someone might choose to extend early, though as Eric Gordon showed last summer, even an injury-plagued fourth season may not hurt a player's earning potential. Another Falk client, Roy Hibbert, was among the players who turned down a lucrative rookie-scale extension and landed a max deal in free agency.
"What incentive does a player have to do an extension after his third year? For me personally, it's difficult to do that," Falk said. "[Former Pacers president] Larry [Bird] offered a significant extension [to Hibbert]. The structure of the CBA, for me, I can't speak for others, I question why that makes sense."
Monroe, 22, will make $4.09MM next season, then will likely receive a one-year qualifying offer from the Pistons, making him a restricted free agent in 2014. At that point, other teams will receive the opportunity to sign him to an offer sheet for up to four years, which the Pistons would have three days to match. Detroit could also negotiate directly with Monroe, offering him a deal for up to five years.