2017 NBA Draft Lottery Odds

With the NBA’s 2016/17 regular season now in the books, the odds for this year’s draft lottery have been set. With the help of our Reverse Standings, as well as information from LotteryBucket.com, here is the 2017 lottery order, along with each team’s chances of landing a top pick:

  1. Boston Celtics (via Brooklyn Nets)
    • No. 1: 25.0%
    • Top-3: 64.3%
    • Lowest pick: No. 4
    • Note: Celtics acquire pick due to ability to swap first-round picks with Nets.
  2. Phoenix Suns
    • No. 1: 19.9%
    • Top-3: 55.8%
    • Lowest pick: No. 5
  3. Los Angeles Lakers
    • No. 1: 15.6%
    • Top-3: 46.9%
    • Lowest pick: No. 6
    • Note: Pick will be sent to Sixers if not in top 3 (odds: 53.1%).
  4. Philadelphia 76ers
    • No. 1: 14.7%
    • Top-3: 45.3%
    • Lowest pick: No. 7
    • Note: Sixers have right to swap picks with Kings, so their No. 1 and top-3 odds are a little higher than they otherwise would be. No. 1 and top-3 odds for Sixers’ own pick are 11.9% and 37.8%, respectively.
  5. Orlando Magic
    • No. 1: 8.8%
    • Top-3: 29.12%
    • Lowest pick: No. 8
  6. Minnesota Timberwolves
    • No. 1: 5.3%
    • Top-3: 18.3%
    • Lowest pick: No. 9
    • Note: Timberwolves won tiebreaker with Knicks.
  7. New York Knicks
    • No. 1: 5.3%
    • Top-3: 18.2%
    • Lowest pick: No. 10
    • Note: Knicks lost tiebreaker with Timberwolves.
  8. Sacramento Kings
    • No. 1: N/A
    • Top-3: 2.5%
    • Lowest pick: No. 11
    • Note: Sixers have right to swap picks with Kings, rendering No. 1 pick impossible and greatly reducing odds of top-3 pick.
    • Note: Pick will be sent to Bulls if not in top 10 (odds: 0.01%).
  9. Dallas Mavericks
    • No. 1: 1.7%
    • Top-3: 6.1%
    • Lowest pick: No. 12
  10. New Orleans Pelicans
    • No. 1: 1.1%
    • Top-3: 4.0%
    • Lowest pick: No. 13
    • Note: Pick will be sent to Kings if not in top 3 (odds: 96.0%).
  11. Charlotte Hornets
    • No. 1: 0.8%
    • Top-3: 2.9%
    • Lowest pick: No. 14
  12. Detroit Pistons
    • No. 1: 0.7%
    • Top-3: 2.5%
    • Lowest pick: No. 14
  13. Denver Nuggets
    • No. 1: 0.6%
    • Top-3: 2.2%
    • Lowest pick: No. 14
  14. Miami Heat
    • No. 1: 0.5%
    • Top-3: 1.8%
    • Lowest pick: No. 14
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13 thoughts on “2017 NBA Draft Lottery Odds

  1. Gucci7383

    As a laker fan I have no words for the win streak they went on at the end of the season.that four game winning streak will cost the lakers 2 first round picks including this years top 3 pick. If it lands at pick four or lower. Terrible

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  2. harvey

    i’ve been a knicks fan for 50 years I had the privilege of rooting for team that won 2
    NBA titles. A smart team and smart franchise
    with very astute fans that loved to win
    Now i see a dumb team with moronic management and sorry dumb fans that were screaming Defense last night that by winning dropped to 18% chance of getting top 3 pick How dumb is that?

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    • ChiSoxCity

      Yep, and what you described is true for all large market NBA teams. NY, Chicago and LA have bad rosters and are horribly mismanaged, despite sold out games by mindless fans who don’t care about significant improvements or rebuilding.

      Mediocrity and dysfunction is the new American way.

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      • ShortJr

        The problem in big city markets is the fact that they need to be constantly winning. Going in to a rebuild, is the death sentence for a GM… They would rather have a job for 6 or 7 years of average/mediocrity and be the 6 to 8 seed then 3 years in a rebiluild to try and fix for the future because the teams losses are amplified ten fold.

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        • ChiSoxCity

          Big market teams aren’t “constantly winning” though. If they were, fans would be happy with that. When you start losing with a stagnant roster, the only way to start winning again is to acquire new/more talent. If you’re dealing with salary cap issues in addition to stagnation, a rebuild is your only option.

          NBA fans can stomach losing if they have something to look forward to, like seeing young talent emerge into franchise players. Watching washed up vets with max contracts who don’t care anymore go through the motions only creates disillusionment among the fan base.

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  3. Franklin Ashley

    Don’t despair it’s still a lottery and stranger things have happened. Lakers players don’t care about the draft but maybe their own careers more. I have a positive feeling and as a former Ny’er hope for you all too

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  4. cbf82

    Mavs would have been a spot higher had they not won in Memphis on the last day of the season, smh…. Nonetheless, Lets go Mavs!!!! Please bless us with a top 3 pick Basketball Gods!!!

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  5. The Suns are a cursed organization. If they get the #5 pick, I’m sending a strongly worded letter to Adam Silver and going to downtown Phoenix to tip over a taxi and lighting it on fire in protest.

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