3:43pm: An update to Wojnarowski’s original article details the currently proposed legislation and we have the highlights here:
- Teams would be able to drop four spots in the lottery. Currently teams can drop no more than three spots.
- The three worst teams would have equal probabilities of landing the first pick.
- The odds for those three worst teams would be flattened, closing the gap between their odds of landing the top pick and the subsequent teams’ odds of landing the top pick.
Another idea that the Competition Committee came up with is to prohibit teams from picking in the top three in consecutive years.
2:37pm: The NBA’s Competition Committee could potentially vote on draft lottery reform prior to the 2017/18 season, Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN writes.
Commissioner Adam Silver is a strong advocate of discouraging tanking and could do so by lowering the odds that basement-dwelling teams have of snagging the top picks.
While legislation for reform could be voted on and put in place prior to the season, that doesn’t mean that any changes would necessarily affect next year’s draft. More realistically, Wojnarowski writes, modifications to the lottery process would be phased in over time.
The NBA’s Competition Committee is expected to vote on the idea of sending a formal recommendation to the league’s Board of Governors next week. If the vote goes through, the committee will be able to decide whether to pass the league office’s recommendations on to the next stage of the process or modify them and send them along.
Ultimately it will be team owners with the final say when they, if necessary, hold their own vote on whether or not to implement the recommendations at the Board of Governors meeting in September.
Currently the draft process gives the team with the fewest wins a 25% chance of landing the first pick and a 64.3% chance of staying in the top three.
The team with the second fewest wins has a 55.8% chance of staying in the top three while the third-worst team in the league has a 46.9% chance of staying there.
At the opposite end of the spectrum, the five best lottery teams have only a 1.8% to 4% chance of landing in the top three.
Modifications to the weighting system could tip the scales in favor of teams who finished with better records, lessening the temptations of blatant futility.