Five Key Offseason Questions: Toronto Raptors
The Raptors remain in the midst of their best multiyear stretch in franchise history. After never winning more than 47 games in a season during the first 18 years of their existence, the Raps have topped that total in each of the last four years, recording 50+ wins for the second time in 2016/17. After winning only one playoff series in the first 20 years of the team’s existence, Toronto notched three postseason series victories in the last two seasons.
Still, the Raptors’ 2016/17 season ended on a sour note. After acquiring Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker at the trade deadline in an effort to seriously threaten the Cavaliers in the East, Toronto was thoroughly outmatched in the Eastern Conference Semifinals, failing to win a single game against Cleveland. The resounding defeat created uncertainty about what the future looks like for the Raptors, particularly since key players like Ibaka, Tucker, and Kyle Lowry are unrestricted free agents this summer.
Here are five important questions facing the Raptors as they enter the offseason…
1. Can the Raptors afford to re-sign multiple key free agents?
Before considering whether or not it makes on-court sense to re-sign several of their key free agents, the Raptors will need to determine exactly how far into tax territory ownership is willing to go to keep this roster intact. With about $77MM already in guaranteed salaries on the books for 2017/18, the club would likely need to commit another $60MM+ to re-sign Lowry ($30MM), Ibaka ($20MM), and Tucker ($10MM). And that’s assuming Patrick Patterson, another valuable rotation piece, doesn’t return, since team president Masai Ujiri has said it’s not realistic to bring back all four players.
Those salary figures are estimates, but I think they’re in the general ballpark, and they’d put the Raptors way over the projected $121MM tax line. Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment, the company that owns the Raptors, has no shortage of money available, but it’s not like this is a championship roster that needs to be kept intact at any cost. Ownership will almost certainly draw the line somewhere — depending on where that line is drawn, it may not be realistic for the Raptors to re-sign certain free agents unless they move other contracts in trades.
2. Can the Raptors afford not to re-sign multiple key free agents?
After watching the Cavaliers’ decimation of the Raptors in this year’s playoffs, it’s easy to say Toronto should blow up its roster, focus on adding young talent, and work toward contending a few years from now, when LeBron James‘ peak is over. But that’s much easier said than done.
Celtics Notes: Free Agents, Thomas, Green, George
Next season’s Celtics may have little resemblance to the group that earned the East’s top seed and reached the conference finals, writes Sean Deveney of The Sporting News. Free agents Amir Johnson and Jonas Jerebko are both very unlikely to be-resigned, according to Deveney. Johnson started 77 games this season, but his role was cut severely in the playoffs. Fellow free agents Gerald Green and James Young will also probably be let go. Kelly Olynyk may be a tougher call as a restricted free agent. The Celtics would like to keep him, Deveney notes, but they aren’t certain to match a large offer. The team would also like to trade center Tyler Zeller, who has one year left on his contract at $8MM, which won’t be guaranteed until July 2nd.
There’s more today out of Boston:
- Isaiah Thomas is eligible for an extension this summer, but it’s unlikely to happen, Deveney states in the same story. Thomas has one year left on his deal at the extreme bargain price of about $6.26MM. The most likely scenario, according to Deveney, is that Thomas will play out his current contract, then pursue a max deal starting at more than $30MM per season in 2018, either from the Celtics or another organization. There has been speculation about a possible Thomas trade this summer, but Deveney says the Celtics haven’t talked to anyone about dealing him. Other offseason decisions include possible extensions for Marcus Smart and Avery Bradley, and Deveney notes that Boston can’t afford to invest big money in all three guards.
- Executives around the league believe the Celtics will hold on to the No. 1 draft pick and select Markelle Fultz, Deveney adds in the same piece. They will take a year to see how he meshes with Thomas, Bradley and Smart before making any long-term decisions. Kansas forward Josh Jackson is probably the most likely choice if they pass on Fultz, according to Deveney.
- At today’s exit interview, Green said he wants to return to the Celtics and help them win a title, tweets A. Sherrod Blakely of CSNNE. The 31-year-old played just 47 games during the season, but started seven times in the playoffs.
- Al Horford, who signed with the Celtics last summer, believes Boston will be a popular destination for free agents, tweets Adam Himmelsbach of The Boston Globe. “I think it’s gonna be very attractive,” he said. “If you look at our team, the upside and everything, it’s a good time to be a Celtic.”
- Boston has the assets to land Paul George in a trade if he refuses to sign a long-term deal with the Pacers, according to Bobby Marks of The Vertical. Marks and Chris Mannix discuss the Celtics’ offseason options in a video on the Vertical website, with Marks saying a trade with Indiana is feasible without including the Nets’ pick for this year or 2018. He suggests a package of Jae Crowder, Terry Rozier, Zeller and the Grizzlies’ 2019 first-rounder may be enough to get a deal done.
Pacific Notes: Paul, Simon, Abdul-Jabbar, Durant
The Clippers view San Antonio as a serious threat to sign Chris Paul this summer, tweets Marc Stein of ESPN.com. “Mutual interest” between Paul and the Spurs was suggested earlier this week by ESPN’s Zach Lowe, and L.A. officials see that as a concern despite San Antonio’s lack of cap space. Paul is expected to use an early-termination option and hit the free agent market. He is eligible for a five-year deal worth about $205MM from the Clippers and four years at roughly $152MM from anyone else. The Spurs only have about $10MM in cap room right now, with Dewayne Dedmon ($3MM) and David Lee ($1.6MM) both owning player options.
There’s more today from the Pacific Division:
- The Lakers are finalizing a deal to add Miles Simon to their coaching staff, tweets Tania Ganguli of The Los Angeles Times. He will replace Theo Robertson, who left this week to become an assistant at the University of California. The Most Outstanding Player in the 1997 NCAA Tournament, Simon played just five NBA games, all with Orlando. He spent three years as an assistant coach at Arizona and is currently a college basketball analyst for ESPN.
- Kareem Abdul-Jabbar may be the next Lakers legend to get a role with the team, according to Mark Medina of The Orange County Register. Abdul-Jabbar says he has been invited to meet with president of basketball operations Magic Johnson and controlling owner Jeanie Buss to discuss a position in the organization. He added that he would like to serve as a mentor to second-year center Ivica Zubac and help him develop his hook shot. “He’s equipped to use it well,” Abdul-Jabbar said. “He has the length to begin with. If he can develop his shooting touch and agility, he’ll use it well.”
- As the NBA Finals approach, Warriors star Kevin Durant is “at peace” with his decision to leave Oklahoma City, relays Sam Amick of USA Today. He bristles at suggestions that his move is behind the lack of parity in the NBA. “Like I’m the reason why Orlando couldn’t make the playoffs for five, six years in a row?” he said. “Am I the reason that Brooklyn gave all their picks to Boston? Like, am I the reason that they’re not that good. I can’t play for every team, so the truth of the matter is I left one team. It’s one more team that you probably would’ve thought would’ve been a contender. One more team. I couldn’t have made the (entire) East better. I couldn’t have made everybody [else] in the West better.”
Playoff Mismatches May Lower Salary Cap
This year’s NBA playoffs could set a record for fewest games since the current format was adopted in 2003, tweets salary cap expert Albert Nahmad.
If the Warriors or Cavaliers sweep the Finals, that will result in 78 games, which would be the lowest total since the first-round was expanded to best-of-seven. Even if the Finals go to seven games, 81 would be tied for the second-fewest.
The reduction in games means less revenue from gate receipts, which could cause next season’s salary cap to fall below its current projection of $101MM, according to RealGM.
The Warriors have notched the highest gate receipts of any playoff team over the past three years. However, they swept their way into the Finals and have played just six home games so far, compared to 10 at the same point last season. Their Finals opponents, the Cavaliers, are 12-1 and have also played just six games at home.
There have been just two seven-game series so far, with the Clippers and Jazz going the distance in the first round and the Celtics and Wizards doing the same in the Eastern Conference semifinals.
The NBA released its cap projection of $101MM in April. The official figure will be calculated in July.
Nets Will Pursue Otto Porter, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
The Nets are planning an aggressive push for restricted free agents again, with Washington’s Otto Porter and Detroit’s Kentavious Caldwell-Pope as targets, tweets Keith Smith of RealGM.
It would be the continuation of a strategy that resulted in a four-year, $75MM offer sheet for Portland’s Allen Crabbe and a four-year, $50MM offer to Miami’s Tyler Johnson last summer. Both deals were matched by their current teams.
Similar offers this year would create financial dilemmas for the Wizards and Pistons, Smith adds (Twitter link).
Brooklyn has about $27MM in cap room right now and could easily get into position to offer a max deal to Porter or Caldwell-Pope. Most of that salary for next season is tied up in Brook Lopez ($22.6MM) and Jeremy Lin ($12MM), with eight players on the roster making between $1.12MM and $1.7MM.
A fourth-year small forward, Porter has been a starter in Washington the past two seasons. He averaged 13.4 points and 6.4 rebounds in 80 games this year. Although the Wizards own his Bird rights, the team is in a bind with only about $7MM in cap space and the need to re-sign Bojan Bogdanovic and rebuild a faltering bench.
Caldwell-Pope has been Detroit’s starter at shooting guard for the past three and a half seasons and averaged 13.8 points per game this year. The Pistons are about $3MM over the cap entering this summer.
Celtics Notes: Fultz, Crowder, Johnson
The Celtics lost to the Cavs in a series that was mainly uncompetitive and it was proof that the Celtics should continue to add premier talent regardless of position, A. Sherrod Blakely argues. Blakely believes Markelle Fultz is the clear choice for the franchise even with Isaiah Thomas having a remarkable campaign. IT will be a free agent at the end of the next season.
Here’s more from Boston:
- Jeremias Engelmann of ESPN.com believes it wouldn’t be best for the Celtics to give up Jae Crowder in a trade that brings them just one of the Gordon Hayward, Jimmy Butler or Paul George trio. Crowder nearly matches the production of each player individually and he does so at a much lower salary.
- In the same piece, Engelmann argues that the Celtics should prioritize re-signing Amir Johnson over their other free agents. The scribe points to Johnson efficiency as reason for the claim.
- Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer examines the Celtics‘ franchise and wonders what the team’s best course of action is. Simply adding someone like Hayward wouldn’t necessarily get the team past LeBron James and the Cavs, but O’Connor notes that it’s not smart to try and wait out James’ prime. We’ve never seen an athlete like LBJ produce at this level and there’s no telling when he’s going to stop.
Lonzo Ball Considering Sixers Workout
Lonzo Ball is mulling a workout with the Sixers, sources tell Chris Haynes of ESPN.com. Ball, who has been linked to the Lakers at No. 2, declined to work out for the Celtics, the team with the top selection in the draft.
Ball’s agent and Sixers GM Bryan Colangelo are expected to sit down and have a conversation about the team. Once that happens, Ball will make a final decision.
Sources tell Haynes that Ball’s camp has concerns over how the team will use Ben Simmons with the worry being that the 2016 No. 1 overall selection will be placed in a ball-dominant role next season. The UCLA product is arguably better served to play a ball-dominant role, so pairing him with Simmons may not be best for his individual game.
The Sixers have confidence that the Simmons-Ball pairing can work, Haynes adds. Ball is expected to be off the board by time Philadelphia picks at No.3, but it appears the Sixers are interested in the point guard should the Lakers shock the world and go in another direction.
Pacific Notes: Bogdanovic, Cousins, Jackson
Bogdan Bogdanovic would have been a top-15 pick in this year’s draft had he entered it this season, sources within the league tell Ailene Voisin of the Sacramento Bee. Bogdanovic entered the 2014 draft and was selected by Phoenix. The Kings acquired his rights in a 2016 draft night trade.
Bogdanovic will be free to negotiate with Sacramento without the rookie scale restrictions come July since it has been three years since he was drafted. Voisin adds that he is expected to garner an annual salary between $5MM and $10MM.
Here’s more from the Pacific Division:
- In the same piece, Voisin adds the organization has a different vibe this offseason—the first since the Kings traded away DeMarcus Cousins. The team’s younger players are actually staying in Sacramento and working out at the facility, something that hasn’t happened in quite some time.
- Doug Haller of The Arizona Republic wonders if the Suns will pass on Josh Jackson because of his off-court issues. Jackson’s two-way game makes him a great fit for the team and he could easily to be available at No. 4.
- Haller (separate piece) takes a look at several prospects whom could be fits for the Suns in the second round. In addition to owning the No. 4 overall pick, Phoenix has the No. 32 and No. 54 selections.
Eastern Draft Notes: Tatum, Fultz, Knicks
Scouts and GMs who spoke with ESPN’s Chad Ford at this year’s combine peg Jayson Tatum as the favorite to win 2018 Rookie of the Year award. Tatum is one of most polished prospects in the upcoming draft and many scouts believe the Celtics would be the best fit for the small forward. He’s unlikely to go No. 1, but could Boston ostensibly trade down and select him at No. 3.
Here’s more from the Eastern Conference on the upcoming draft:
- All signs point to the Celtics taking Markelle Fultz with the top selection in the draft, Ford writes in the same piece. Lonzo Ball, who is widely regarded as the only threat to Fultz at No. 1, announced that he will not work out for Boston.
- ESPN’s Fran Fraschilla believes the Knicks would have a good draft if they selected either Dennis Smith Jr. or Frank Ntilikina with the No. 8 pick in the upcoming draft, as Al Iannazzone of Newsday relays. “They both have very good long-term upside. They have NBA guard characteristics. They’re both athletic. They’re both reasonably well put together. It’s going to be a matter of do you like vanilla or chocolate, and how they come in and interview and work out with the teams,” Fraschilla said.
- Purdue’s Caleb Swanigan could be an option for the Bulls at No. 38, Mark Strotman of Comcast Sportsnet writes. Nikola Mirotic will be a restricted free agent this summer and if Chicago plans on letting him walk, the franchise could look for frontcourt depth in the draft.
Poll: 2013 Draft All-Star Appearances
The 2013 NBA draft class was initially thought to be one of the worst in league history, though its talent has proven that it doesn’t belong in that conversation. Several players have developed into solid rotation players and some of the prospects have become pillars for their teams to build around.
Many of the players will see new deals kick in next season from extensions that were previously signed and others will agree to new deals in restricted free agency this summer. The collection of talent is deeper than initially anticipated, but the group lacks star power compared to other draft classes.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is the 2013 draft class’ only true superstar. He made his first All-Star appearance this year (the group’s only appearance ever) and he’ll likely participate in the exhibition games for years to come.
Outside of Milwaukee’s star, Rudy Gobert stands the best chance to earn multiple All-Star appearances, though C.J. McCollum could also easily accomplish that feat.
Nerlens Noel could possibly earn an All-Star nod down the road if he expands his game and takes on a bigger role, but is that likely? Maybe Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Dennis Schroder develop into more efficient, productive versions of their respective selfs over the next few seasons. What if Otto Porter signs with a team that gives him a bigger piece of the offensive pie and he’s able to maintain his efficiency? Perhaps Steven Adams is allowed to rebound again now that Russell Westbrook accomplished his triple-double conquest and he morphs back into the player who dominated the Warriors early in the Thunder’s 2016 Western Conference Finals appearance.
All of those scenarios are unlikely and I’d peg the over-under for total All-Star appearances in this particular sub-group at an uninspiring 1.0.
So here’s tonight’s poll question: Which side will end up having more All-Star appearances: Antetokounmpo or the remainder of the 2013 draft class? Don’t limit yourself to a click of a button. Do you believe someone in the draft class isn’t properly represented? Are we underrating someone’s potential? Let us know in the comment section below. We look forward to what you have to say!
More All-Star Appearances Out Of 2013 Draftees
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Giannis Antetokounmpo 83% (728)
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The Field 17% (150)
Total votes: 878