Revisiting NBA Over/Under Predictions For 2016/17
At the start of the 2016/17 NBA season, we took a close look at the projected win totals for each NBA team, with the help of the lines from offshore betting site Bovada.lv. Division by division, we ran through every club from the Warriors (66.5) to the Nets (20.5), allowing you to weigh in and vote on whether you though each team’s win total would ultimately end up above or below its preseason projection.
With the regular season now in the books, we’re taking a look back today at the results of those votes to see how we fared in our predictions. Listed below are the over/unders for each team, the results of our preseason votes, and the team’s regular season record. Our correct calls are noted in green, while the ones we missed are marked in red.
Here are the results:
Atlantic (2-3)
- Boston Celtics (52.5 wins): Under (54.59%)
- Record: 53-29 (Over)
- Toronto Raptors (50.5 wins): Over (54.63%)
- Record: 51-31 (Over)
- New York Knicks (38.5 wins): Over (71.41%)
- Record: 31-51 (Under)
- Philadelphia 76ers (23.5 wins): Under (54.62%)
- Record: 28-54 (Over)
- Brooklyn Nets (20.5 wins): Under (60.74%)
- Record: 20-62 (Under)
Central (2-3)
- Cleveland Cavaliers (56.5 wins): Over (66.5%)
- Record: 51-31 (Under)
- Detroit Pistons (44.5 wins): Over (55.03%)
- Record: 37-45 (Under)
- Indiana Pacers (44.5 wins): Over (73.06%)
- Record: 42-40 (Under)
- Chicago Bulls (38.5 wins): Over (61.9%)
- Record: 41-41 (Over)
- Milwaukee Bucks (34.5 wins): Over (67.48%)
- Record: 42-40 (Over)
Southeast (2-3)
- Atlanta Hawks (43.5 wins): Over (59.84%)
- Record: 43-39 (Under)
- Charlotte Hornets (42.5 wins): Under (62.22%)
- Record: 36-46 (Under)
- Washington Wizards (42.5 wins): Over (51.6%)
- Record: 49-33 (Over)
- Orlando Magic (37.5 wins): Over (54.42%)
- Record: 29-53 (Under)
- Miami Heat (34.5 wins): Under (61.45%)
- Record: 41-41 (Over)
Northwest (1-4)
- Utah Jazz (49 wins): Under (68.72%)
- Record: 51-31 (Over)
- Portland Trail Blazers (45.5 wins): Over (69.92%)
- Record: 41-41 (Under)
- Oklahoma City Thunder (43.5 wins): Over (65.71%)
- Record: 47-35 (Over)
- Minnesota Timberwolves (40.5 wins): Over (50.11%)
- Record: 31-51 (Under)
- Denver Nuggets (37 wins): Under (68.81%)
- Record: 40-42 (Over)
Southwest (3-2)
- San Antonio Spurs (58.5 wins): Under (57.4%)
- Record: 61-21 (Over)
- Houston Rockets (44 wins): Over (52.76%)
- Record: 55-27 (Over)
- Memphis Grizzlies (42.5 wins): Over (59.69%)
- Record: 43-39 (Over)
- Dallas Mavericks (38.5 wins): Over (69.71%)
- Record: 33-49 (Under)
- New Orleans Pelicans (37 wins): Under (70.9%)
- Record: 34-48 (Under)
Pacific (3-2)
- Golden State Warriors (66.5 wins): Over (67.32%)
- Record: 67-15 (Over)
- Los Angeles Clippers (53.5 wins): Over (61.96%)
- Record: 51-31 (Under)
- Sacramento Kings (34 wins): Under (58.1%)
- Record: 32-50 (Under)
- Phoenix Suns (30 wins): Over (52.6%)
- Record: 24-58 (Under)
- Los Angeles Lakers (24.5 wins): Over (65.92%)
- Record: 26-56 (Over)
On the whole, we were just 13-17 when it came to accurately predicting over/unders for 2016/17, so hopefully no one took our votes to Vegas before the season got underway.
Before the season, our readers were most bullish on the Pacers, Knicks, Trail Blazers, Mavericks, and Bucks to outperform expectations, but ultimately only Milwaukee exceeded their projected win total out of that group. The other four teams fell multiple games short.
Our readers were most bearish on the Pelicans, Nuggets, Jazz, Hornets, and Heat, strongly voting for the under in each case. However, Denver, Utah, and Miami all exceeded expectations, surpassing their projected win totals.
Which teams disappointed or impressed you most based on preseason expectations? Jump into the comments section below to share your thoughts.
Draft Updates: Milton, Trier, Maten, Okobo
A pair of notable NCAA underclassmen have decided to return to school for at least one more year, according to reports. Jon Rothstein of FanRag Sports tweets that SMU guard Shake Milton will stay in school for his junior year, while Arizona guard Allonzo Trier tells Jeff Goodman of ESPN.com that he’ll remain with the Wildcats for his junior season. Both players would have been candidates to be selected if they had entered the 2017 draft — they currently rank back to back at Nos. 59 and 60 on the DraftExpress big board.
Here are a few more draft updates worth passing along:
- Georgia power forward Yante Maten will test the draft waters, per Jeff Goodman of ESPN.com (Twitter link). Maten won’t hire an agent, so he’ll have the opportunity to withdraw from the draft by May 24 and return to Georgia for his senior year.
- Elie Okobo, a combo guard from France, has declared for the 2017 NBA draft, agent Herman Manakyan tells Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress (Twitter link). Okobo’s ranks ninth on DraftExpress’ list of 1997-born international prospects.
- Brandon Goodwin, a Florida Gulf Coast junior guard, has decided to enter the draft without hiring an agent, the school announced in a press release. Despite averaging 18.5 PPG for FGCU in 2016/17, Goodwin is not viewed as a top prospect by DraftExpress.
- Southern Utah shooting guard Randy Onwuasor will enter his name into the draft pool without hiring an agent, according to Ryan Miller of The Spectrum. Onwuasor, who is not considered likely to be drafted, is planning to return for his senior season, Miller writes.
Dirk Nowitzki To Return For 20th Season With Mavs
Dirk Nowitzki completed his 19th NBA season this week and will turn 39 in June, but he’s not ready to call it a career just yet. As expected, Nowitzki said today that he intends to return for the 2017/18, which will be his 20th year with the Mavericks (Twitter link via Earl K. Sneed of Mavs.com). Nowitzki also left the door open to play in 2018/19, depending on how next season goes.
“I think my body will tell me when it’s time,” Nowitzki said (Twitter link via Sneed). “I’m going to play next year as hard as I can.”
Nowitzki technically remains under contract for next season with the Mavs, but his $25MM salary for 2017/18 is a team option. Team owner Mark Cuban has displayed a strong willingness to work with Nowitzki over the years when it comes to new deals, so he’d likely be happy to pick up that option, if that’s the future Hall-of-Famer’s preference. The two sides could also work out a new arrangement.
Health issues nagged at Nowitzki throughout the 2016/17 season, with Achilles injuries slowing him and limiting him to 54 games, his lowest mark since his rookie season. Although he’s no longer at the peak of his powers, Nowitzki was still an effective scorer for Dallas this season, averaging 14.2 PPG and shooting 37.8% on three-pointers.
The German big man could have an opportunity to pass Wilt Chamberlain for fifth on the all-time NBA scoring list next season if he stays healthy. Nowitzki currently ranks sixth with 30,260 points, which puts him 1,159 points behind Chamberlain.
2017 NBA Award Picks: Executive Of The Year
Now that the 2016/17 NBA regular season has come to an end, we’ll be making our picks for the year’s major awards. The Hoops Rumors writing team has weighed in with our picks below, but we also want to know which players, coaches, and executives you think are most deserving of the hardware this season, so jump into the comments section below to share your thoughts.
We’re kicking things off today with the award for Executive of the Year. Here are our selections:
Dana Gauruder: Daryl Morey (Rockets)
The Rockets spent big bucks on free agents and those moves paid off. Eric Gordon stayed healthy for a change and emerged as the second-league scorer and Ryan Anderson filled the role of stretch four. A trade deadline move gave them another valuable piece – Lou Williams – for the playoffs.
Austin Kent: Bob Myers (Warriors)
The Warriors added a top-five player without disrupting their 73-win core. We can try to come up with excuses to give the award to somebody else, but that’s all they are — excuses. The addition of Kevin Durant may have interfered with the team’s flow at the beginning of the season but there’s no denying that the organization is in a better place in the long run. This front office hasn’t made many moves since the summer, but the few moves they’ve made have been smart and calculated. I give them full credit for adding Zaza Pachulia as a bargain bin replacement for Andrew Bogut and recognizing JaVale McGee’s value when other teams failed to.
Chris Crouse: Daryl Morey (Rockets)
Dwight Howard may no longer be the force he was during his prime, but he’s still a top center in the league and losing those types of players are supposed to hurt a franchise. The Rockets didn’t flinch when he left and part of the reason was the presence of Clint Capela. Morey had faith in the young center and that allowed him to use the majority of his resources to upgrade the team’s other positions.
Adding players is only part of the job of GM; knowing what you already have is equally as important. Morey deserves credit for assembling a team of shooters around James Harden, but he wouldn’t have been able to make some of his offseason moves if he didn’t have a great pulse on what he already had in-house. He checks all the Executive of the Year boxes for me.
Arthur Hill: Daryl Morey (Rockets)
After hiring Mike D’Antoni as coach last summer, Morey fully committed to the D’Antoni style of play. The Rockets have favored the 3-pointers and layups philosophy since Morey took over in 2007, but they never had the shooters to make it really work. This year, Morey signed Gordon and Anderson in free agency, then traded for Williams at the deadline. Add in the signing of veteran center Nene to a team-friendly deal, and it’s easy to see what the Rockets increased their win total by 14 games.
Luke Adams: John Hammond (Bucks)
Hammond’s work in free agency last summer wasn’t overly impressive, with lucrative long-term deals for Miles Plumlee and Mirza Teletovic not working out as planned. But newly-added Matthew Dellavedova was a crucial rotation piece in Milwaukee this season, and Hammond did excellent work in other areas.
Landing Tony Snell and Michael Beasley in two offseason trades in exchange for players who weren’t in the Bucks’ long-term plans was deft, as was snagging potential Rookie of the Year Malcolm Brogdon in the second round of the draft and dumping Plumlee’s contract at the deadline. Meanwhile, many observers expected the Bucks to get whatever they could for Greg Monroe in a trade, but Hammond hung onto him and watched as he became one of the league’s most effective bench scorers. He also ignored calls to tank when Jabari Parker went down — that turned out to be the right decision, as the Bucks finished the season on an impressive 20-11 run, climbing to No. 6 in the East.
Who is your pick for Executive of the Year? Share your choices and your thoughts in the comments section below!
Schedule:
April 14: Coach of the Year
April 17: Most Improved Player
April 18: Sixth Man of the Year
April 19: Defensive Player of the Year
April 20: Rookie of the Year
April 21: MVP
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Magic Rumors: G. Hill, Wright, Cousins, Hennigan
Shortly after the Magic fired general manager Rob Hennigan this morning, Josh Robbins of The Orlando Sentinel reported that team officials have interest in pursuing Grant Hill as a potential president of basketball operations. Marc Stein of ESPN.com confirms Orlando’s interest in Hill, but tweets that the former Magic forward currently has no plans to leave the Hawks‘ ownership group.
As we wait to see if Hill’s stance changes, here are several more Magic-related notes, with a focus on today’s front office shakeup:
- Spurs assistant GM Brian Wright is on the Magic‘s preliminary list of potential GM candidates, according to Adrian Wojnarowski of The Vertical. Wojnarowski also notes that the leaked white board that went viral last week ultimately didn’t affect Orlando’s decision to replace Hennigan — the team had already decided to move on from him at that point.
- Marc J. Spears of The Undefeated and Sam Amick of USA Today expressed surprise that the Magic dismissed assistant GM Scott Perry along with Hennigan (Twitter links). Both reporters note that the two men had different voices in the front office, suggesting that Perry would have likely been able to complete a trade for DeMarcus Cousins if Hennigan had been on board with it.
- Although Hennigan didn’t have a ton of success in Orlando, he remains widely respected around the NBA and will likely have “attractive offers” to choose from when he looks for a new job, tweets Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress.com.
- In non-Hennigan news, the Magic‘s D-League affiliate, which will begin play next season, will be called the Lakeland Magic, as Robbins details for The Sentinel.
Carmelo Wants “Commitment To Win” From Knicks
With the Knicks’ 2016/17 season in the books, the focus in New York will shift to Carmelo Anthony‘s future with the franchise, and Anthony spoke to reporters on Wednesday about his current situation. The star forward is prepared to have his exit meeting on Thursday with Phil Jackson, GM Steve Mills, and head coach Jeff Hornacek, and suggests he’d like a “commitment to win” from the Knicks, as Ian Begley of ESPN.com and Marc Berman of The New York Post detail.
“I would love to be back, but there’s some things I’d love to see different — the mentality, a winning mentality, being committed to that,” Anthony said. “I want to win. Hopefully everybody else does. I wanted to win. They know that when I signed my contract a couple of years ago. That’s still my mindset. If that’s not the direction they want to go in — it’s communication. Just communicate.”
Anthony still wields a no-trade clause this summer, and while he has said all along that he’d love to remain in New York, his post-game comments on Wednesday indicate that if the Knicks want to rebuild around Kristaps Porzingis and the team’s other younger players, that will be something he takes into consideration as he decides whether to waive that NTC. Anthony’s comments suggest that he recognizes the Knicks would probably be open to a deal if he is.
“It’s all on me,” Anthony said. “I have a lot of thinking and reflecting to do. It’s all on me at this point. I’m pretty sure the organization has an idea and thought of what they want to do and how they want do it. At this point it’s all on me.”
Anthony clarified that he remains uncertain about what his future holds, and that hearing what the Knicks have in mind for him going forward will likely have an impact on his decision. As Begley details, Anthony also admitted that it was “hard to trust” Jackson after the Knicks president criticized him publicly earlier this season.
“If somebody was talking bad about you indirectly at your job, what would you do? You would feel a certain way,” Anthony said. “You would want that person to come straightforward with you. And I feel the same way. I’m always open. I’m a very honest person. I know the business and I know the game and I know how it works. So if it’s something that you want to get across, a message that you want to get across, I’ve always been open.”
A report earlier today indicated that the Knicks and Jackson each picked up their side of Jackson’s mutual option, locking him up as the team’s president for two more years. It remains to be seen whether that will reduce Anthony’s odds of sticking with the franchise.
UNC’s Justin Jackson Enters 2017 NBA Draft
North Carolina forward Justin Jackson has entered the 2017 NBA draft and won’t withdraw his name before next month’s deadline, the school announced today in a press release. Jackson will hire an agent, forgoing his remaining NCAA eligibility.
Jackson tested the draft waters a year ago but decided to return to UNC for his junior year. That decision ended up paying off, as the 2017 ACC Player of the Year helped lead the Tar Heels to a national championship this spring. With another year of college ball under his belt, the 22-year-old tells Evan Daniels of Scout.com that he feels like the time is right to go pro.
“I think I put myself in a pretty decent position,” Jackson said. “I can obviously still get better in a bunch of different area. I think I put myself in one of the best positions I could be in. I accomplished a lot while I was here winning a national championship and I just felt like ending it that way and moving along. I felt like it was the right time.”
Jackson is currently the 14th-best prospect on DraftExpress’ big board, and No. 27 on Chad Ford’s list at ESPN.com. Ford notes that some scouts are still on the fence about Jackson’s NBA potential, but a consistent three-point shot in 2016/17 brought many scouts around on him as a mid-first-round pick.
After making just 29.7% of his long-distance attempts in his first two college seasons, Jackson shot 37.0% on three-pointers this season, to go along with averages of 18.3 PPG, 4.7 RPG, and 2.8 APG.
Jackson’s UNC teammate Tony Bradley is also testing the draft waters this year.
Magic Fire GM Rob Hennigan
With their offseason now underway, the Magic have started making changes in their front office, firing general manager Rob Hennigan, reports Adrian Wojnarowski of The Vertical (via Twitter). The team also dismissed assistant GM Scott Perry, according to Josh Robbins of The Orlando Sentinel (Twitter link).
“We appreciate Rob’s efforts to rebuild the team, but feel we have not made any discernible improvement over the last few years specifically,” Magic CEO Alex Martins said in a statement. “It’s time for different leadership in basketball operations. We certainly wish Rob and his family well.”
Hennigan was considered to be on the hot seat for much of this season, as his flurry of moves a year ago failed to lead to tangible on-court improvement for the Magic. An eventful 2016 offseason saw Orlando trade for Serge Ibaka, then sign Bismack Biyombo, D.J. Augustin, and Jeff Green in free agency.
The franchise had playoff aspirations to start the year, but lost its opener to the Heat, and never got back above .500. Orlando’s spot in the standings prompted the team to flip Ibaka to the Raptors before February’s trade deadline, and Hennigan and the front office were widely criticized for giving up far more for Ibaka last summer than they got back for him at the deadline.
Hennigan’s seat likely became hotter in recent weeks after a photo taken by Patricio Garino‘s agent that showed an apparent list of Orlando’s offseason targets on a dry-erase board went viral. Hennigan insisted that the leaked white board wasn’t indicative of the Magic’s summer plans, and that it was just a list of possible options for the team, but it wasn’t a great look for a management group that was already under fire.
2016/17 was the fifth straight season that the Magic finished with a losing record, dating back to 2012/13, Hennigan’s first year at the helm. During Hennigan’s five years as Orlando’s GM, the team posted a 132-278 record (.322). The club has employed four different head coaches during that time, never winning more than 35 games in a season or earning a spot in the playoffs.
With Hennigan no longer in the mix in Orlando, the Magic have named Matt Lloyd as the interim general manager, the club confirmed (via Twitter). Lloyd will be in the mix for the permanent job, though he won’t be the only candidate considered.
According to Robbins, Magic officials have interest in Grant Hill as a potential president of basketball operations. Robbins adds that Pistons associate GM Pat Garrity and Warriors assistant GM Travis Schlenk could also be among the executives targeted by Orlando.
There were rumblings earlier this year that Doc Rivers could consider jumping to the Magic in a head coach/president of basketball operations role, but that seems like a long shot — Rivers dismissed the idea at the time. For now, Frank Vogel remains the head coach in Orlando, and he just finished the first year of a four-year contract, so a new GM may be reluctant to make a change unless the Magic are willing to eat a significant chunk of money.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
2017 NBA Draft Lottery Odds
With the NBA’s 2016/17 regular season now in the books, the odds for this year’s draft lottery have been set. With the help of our Reverse Standings, as well as information from LotteryBucket.com, here is the 2017 lottery order, along with each team’s chances of landing a top pick:
- Boston Celtics (via Brooklyn Nets)
- No. 1: 25.0%
- Top-3: 64.3%
- Lowest pick: No. 4
- Note: Celtics acquire pick due to ability to swap first-round picks with Nets.
- Phoenix Suns
- No. 1: 19.9%
- Top-3: 55.8%
- Lowest pick: No. 5
- Los Angeles Lakers
- No. 1: 15.6%
- Top-3: 46.9%
- Lowest pick: No. 6
- Note: Pick will be sent to Sixers if not in top 3 (odds: 53.1%).
- Philadelphia 76ers
- No. 1: 14.7%
- Top-3: 45.3%
- Lowest pick: No. 7
- Note: Sixers have right to swap picks with Kings, so their No. 1 and top-3 odds are a little higher than they otherwise would be. No. 1 and top-3 odds for Sixers’ own pick are 11.9% and 37.8%, respectively.
- Orlando Magic
- No. 1: 8.8%
- Top-3: 29.12%
- Lowest pick: No. 8
- Minnesota Timberwolves
- No. 1: 5.3%
- Top-3: 18.3%
- Lowest pick: No. 9
- Note: Timberwolves won tiebreaker with Knicks.
- New York Knicks
- No. 1: 5.3%
- Top-3: 18.2%
- Lowest pick: No. 10
- Note: Knicks lost tiebreaker with Timberwolves.
- Sacramento Kings
- No. 1: N/A
- Top-3: 2.5%
- Lowest pick: No. 11
- Note: Sixers have right to swap picks with Kings, rendering No. 1 pick impossible and greatly reducing odds of top-3 pick.
- Note: Pick will be sent to Bulls if not in top 10 (odds: 0.01%).
- Dallas Mavericks
- No. 1: 1.7%
- Top-3: 6.1%
- Lowest pick: No. 12
- New Orleans Pelicans
- No. 1: 1.1%
- Top-3: 4.0%
- Lowest pick: No. 13
- Note: Pick will be sent to Kings if not in top 3 (odds: 96.0%).
- Charlotte Hornets
- No. 1: 0.8%
- Top-3: 2.9%
- Lowest pick: No. 14
- Detroit Pistons
- No. 1: 0.7%
- Top-3: 2.5%
- Lowest pick: No. 14
- Denver Nuggets
- No. 1: 0.6%
- Top-3: 2.2%
- Lowest pick: No. 14
- Miami Heat
- No. 1: 0.5%
- Top-3: 1.8%
- Lowest pick: No. 14
Phil Jackson, Knicks Exercised Mutual Option
The Knicks and team president Phil Jackson “quietly” picked up their respective sides of Jackson’s mutual option for the next two years this spring, according to Ramona Shelburne and Ian Begley of ESPN.com. The option would have allowed either side to exit the contract this year, but now that it has been exercised by both sides, Jackson is locked in through the 2018/19 season. Sources tell ESPN that the mutual option was exercised “a while ago.”
As another disappointing season in New York neared its conclusion, there had been speculation that one side or the other would opt out of Jackson’s contract. A report in March suggested that some people close to Knicks owner James Dolan were urging him to make a change, despite his public commitment in February to retaining Jackson.
Meanwhile, Jackson just finished a turbulent 2016/17 season that saw him publicly clash with star forward Carmelo Anthony in the weeks and months leading up to the trade deadline. In Jackson’s three years as New York’s president, the team now has an 80-166 overall record. However, he has long insisted that the option was only inserted in his contract as a precautionary measure related to CBA talks, since he didn’t want to stick around through another lockout.
With Jackson poised to manage the Knicks’ roster through another season, he’ll have plenty of interesting decisions to make this summer, including potentially trading Anthony, deciding whether to attempt to bring back free agent point guard Derrick Rose, and determining which player to draft with the club’s lottery pick.