After a series of tiebreakers were conducted Friday night, the lottery odds for the NBA Draft have been finalized. Similarly, the draft order for teams outside of the lottery has been decided as well.
While a total of four two-way ties and one four-way tie were all broken by coin toss, the biggest winner of the night would have to be the Mavs who will now officially boast the third-greatest odds when the lottery is drawn on May 15.
Although the Hawks equaled Dallas in futility, both teams limited to 24 wins on the year, they’ll slot in one spot behind them at No. 4. That means, if neither team secures a top-three pick when the lottery results are revealed, they’ll just pick after them, the same as if they had won one more game. Both teams, however, will have nearly identical odds (13.7% versus 13.8%) of securing a top-three pick in the lottery.
The Bulls also won big today, edging out the Kings for the No. 6 spot. Sacramento will have an identical shot at landing at top-three pick, however.
The four-way tie between Utah, New Orleans, Oklahoma City and Indiana ended with the Thunder at No. 20, the Jazz at No. 21, the Pelicans at No. 22 and the Pacers at No. 23.
That Oklahoma City pick will head to Minnesota while the 22nd pick will go straight to the Bulls as part of the Nikola Mirotic deal.
The Heat won the tiebreaker for the the 16th pick, ahead of the Bucks, and will send that to Phoenix as part of the Goran Dragic trade back in 2015.
Milwaukee claiming the No. 17 pick is particularly interesting since, had they won the tiebreaker, they would have had to flip the pick to the Suns as part of the Greg Monroe trade. Since they didn’t, they’ll keep the pick and send a protected first-rounder in 2019, so long as it falls between 4-16.
The Spurs won the coin toss between themselves and the Timberwolves and will now pick at No. 18. Minnesota’s 19th pick will go to Atlanta as part of a 2015 Adreian Payne trade.
As is always the case, the loser of any tiebreaker will end up with the better pick in the second round. In the event of the four-way tie, all four teams will simply be flipped, giving the Pacers the 50th pick and so on.
Here’s a rundown of what the draft order currently looks like, prior to the results of the May lottery.
| Pick | Team |
| 1 | Suns |
| 2 | Grizzlies |
| 3 | Mavs |
| 4 | Hawks |
| 5 | Magic |
| 6 | Bulls |
| 7 | Kings |
| 8 | Cavaliers |
| 9 | Knicks |
| 10 | 76ers |
| 11 | Hornets |
| 12 | Clippers |
| 13 | Clippers |
| 14 | Nuggets |
| 15 | Wizards |
| 16 | Suns |
| 17 | Bucks |
| 18 | Spurs |
| 19 | Hawks |
| 20 | Wolves |
| 21 | Jazz |
| 22 | Bulls |
| 23 | Pacers |
| 24 | Trail Blazers |
| 25 | Lakers |
| 26 | 76ers |
| 27 | Celtics |
| 28 | Warriors |
| 29 | Nets |
| 30 | Hawks |
Need a top 3. Almost guaranteed Doncic, Ayton, or Bagley
Not high on Doncic.
He’s only 6 -8 and what’s the difference between he and Wally Szczerbiak or Doug McDermott?
I’d rather have Bridges of Villanova before this European kid.
Wait, what?
What’s the difference between he and Wally Szczerbiak? He’s a guard, so I guess you can start there. He plays the point for his team. Completely different player than the two you mentioned. Weird take.
Doncic is far better ball-handler, passer, and playmaker while being almost as good of a shooter as McDermott. His floor is probably a Gordon Hayward, Wally Szczerbiak type
He’s only 6’8? That’s taller than the average NBA player and taller than Mikal Bridges so I’m not quite sure of your point
Have you read the scouting report at all? He’s combo guard who has Klay Thompson’s size and offensive game and has Ricky Rubio’s court vision and passing ability. At least that’s his ceiling.
What was Darko’s scouting report?
What was Dirk’s or Tony Parker’s?
Were either of those expected to be top three picks? Ask Pop and Nelson about their scouting reports.
My original point was scouting reports are not always that accurate and often foreign players don’t play the same level of competition.
Accept Doncic is only 18 and already one of the best, if not the best, player in the best league in Europe
*except
Amazing, as bad as the Knicks have and they may be picking after the Cavs.
Well it is the nets pick
I don’t understand calling the Mavs the biggest winner of the night. They got the 3 instead of the 4, that’s not that big a difference. The biggest winner by far was the Bucks who get to keep the #17 pick in a strong draft and get to potentially give up their pick next year in a much weaker draft.
Interesting perspective. It’s obviously a subjective thing, so you may be right!
Still, the idea of acquiring this year’s D.J. Wilson instead of next year’s D.J. Wilson doesn’t really move the needle for me, I think we tend to overvalue mid-to-late first-rounders these days.
Gimme the trade value and/or the peace of mind that comes with having an 85+% chance of improving my likely top-five pick.
True enough, but DJ Wilson could have easily been John Collins or OG Anunoby as well. The 17 pick has been a bit snakebitten recently, but guys like Josh Smith, Danny Granger, and Jrue Holiday were #17 also. The hit rate on the #17 pick is relatively low, I’d estimate somewhere around 30% (total guess), but the hit rate on not having a first round pick is 0%. There might be a slight difference between the 3 and 4 pick, but I doubt it is anywhere close to 30%.
Plus there is a bit of peace of mind in knowing that while you might end up with a DJ Wilson or a Wade Baldwin (#17 in 2016), you could easily cut them and not be out much. It is a lot harder to justify cutting a #3 pick that doesn’t work out like Jahlil Okafor without looking bad and costing yourself a lot more money.
But there is also the consideration that the Bucks could play poor next year or the years after and end up losing a much more valuable pick. In the long term, I might prefer to just lose this #17 instead of the potential #4 or #5 next year, #9 or #10 the next year, or even #1,2,3,4 in 2021. Losing those top 5 picks would sting. I sorta wish they would have tanked for one game late this year.
Well with Giannis in tow, the possibility of falling off that far is remote, especially in the East. And if they do fall off that far, one draft pick won’t make a bit of difference.
The heat sucked with Dwanye Wade (injured some) for a year so anything can happen. If the Bucks get better and they end up given a pick in the 20’s then that is great but the Bucks never give me any reason to have confidence in them.
giving up