And-Ones: Offseason Questions, Zipser, Ellenson, Henry
In a piece on Monday for ESPN (Insider-only link), Bobby Marks laid out the 10 questions that he believes will define the 2021 off-season.
Some of the questions discussed include how COVID-19 will affect the league’s salary cap, which position has the deepest free agent pool, the next All-Star to get traded, and the futures of stars Chris Paul and Kawhi Leonard with their current teams, as well as the Grizzlies‘ ability to be a dark-horse player in free agency.
As a bonus, Marks touches on Joel Embiid‘s looming extension, whether Kevin Love can rediscover his game and improve his trade value with Team USA, John Collins‘ restricted free agency, and more.
We have more from around the world of basketball:
- Former Bulls wing Paul Zipser has signed a three-year extension with German team Bayern Munchen, according to a team press release. Zipser averaged 4.7 PPG over 98 games in his two seasons in Chicago.
- Henry Ellenson has signed with Obradoiro CAB of the Spanish Liga ACB, per a team press release. Ellenson, the former 18th overall pick, played two games this season for the Raptors and was one of the leading scorers in the G League.
- Myke Henry has agreed to a deal with French team Champagne Basket, reports Ennio Terrasi Borghesan of Sportando. The small forward played 20 games for the Grizzlies in the 2017/2018 season, averaging 5.4 PPG and 1.6 SPG.
Kawhi Leonard Undergoes Knee Surgery
Clippers star Kawhi Leonard underwent successful surgery today to repair a partial tear of his right ACL, per a Clippers press release.
There is no timetable for Leonard’s return, according to the team. However, the diagnosis suggests that his recovery could extend into the 2021/22 season.
Leonard only managed to play in four games during the Clippers’ second-round series against the Jazz before being sidelined with the knee injury that kept him on the shelf for the entire Western Finals vs. Phoenix. He had previously dealt with lingering leg injuries, including the mysterious quad injury that effectively ended his time with the Spurs.
The two-time Defensive Player of the Year and two-time Finals MVP has a player option to return to the Clippers next season, or he can decline the option and become an unrestricted free agent. He has long been expected to take the latter route, if only to sign a new contract with Los Angeles, since he’ll be eligible for a higher maximum salary this offseason.
Community Shootaround: Antetokounmpo’s Finals Run
When Giannis Antetokounmpo went down with a hyperextended knee in Game 4 of the Bucks‘ Eastern Conference Finals series against the Hawks, it was unclear what it would mean for the his chances at playing in the NBA Finals. His medical status was up in the air until just moments before tip-off in Game 1 against the Suns, but he ultimately was able to suit up.
Even with the Bucks losing the opening game and getting a relatively pedestrian 20-point performance from the two-time MVP, it was clear that Giannis was back. From his 17 rebounds to his work in the post, he found his footing after some early hesitancy.
Antetokounmpo’s following two games were nothing short of spectacular. The Greek Freak joined Shaquille O’Neal as the only two players in Finals history to post back-to-back 40-point, 10-rebound games as the Bucks split Games 2 and 3 with the Suns.
With Game 4 looming on Wednesday on the Bucks’ home court, Antetokounmpo currently has the 12th-highest scoring rate in NBA Finals history at 34.3 PPG, the fifth-highest rebound rate at 14 RPG, and the third-highest free throw rate at 15.7 FTA. Only two points per game separate Antetokounmpo’s scoring rate with the sixth-highest output in Finals history, O’Neal’s 36.3 PPG in the 2000 Finals.
Antetokounmpo’s co-stars, Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton, have struggled to contribute at the highest level all series, though Holiday managed to free himself for 21 points in Game 3. If those two players continue to struggle, the Bucks will need Antetokounmpo to continue his Herculean efforts if they want any chance to bring home the coveted Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy.
If the Bucks are to complete the comeback from a 2-0 deficit for the second time this postseason, it will likely be on the back of an all-time, legacy-making Finals performance from Antetokounmpo.
Which leads to the question of the day: Can Antetokounmpo enshrine his name in the pantheon of the all-time Finals performances? Can he lead the Bucks to their first championship since 1971?
Head to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.
Northwest Notes: Jazz, Barton, Edwards, Nuggets Workouts
Keeping Mike Conley is a top priority for the Jazz, writes Tony Jones of The Athletic in his off-season primer, but there are plenty of other questions beyond that facing this year’s No. 1 seed in the West.
One such question will be if the Jazz can hit on the 30th pick in the draft. While it’s not historically a wellspring for players who can help a team with championship ambitions, this is a deep draft and there are plenty of examples of success stories at that spot, such as Jimmy Butler, Kevin Porter Jr.., Kevon Looney, and Kyle Anderson, among others.
There’s also the question of their current young players on the roster. Though Donovan Mitchell is the only young player who is a member of the team’s core, the Jazz will have to decide which other youngsters they keep and try to develop, and which they let go.
We have more from around the Northwest Division:
- Will Barton of the Nuggets was cagey about the topic of his impending player option deadline and whether he’ll look to enter free agency, writes Mike Singer of The Denver Post. “Being appreciated,” Barton said of what he’s looking for in free agency. “Team knowing my value. Of course, an important role. Just the right situation. I want to win.” Barton will have to decide whether he picks up his $14.6MM player option by July 17.
- The Timberwolves have brought Anthony Edwards back to Minnesota for an injury evaluation, reports Christina Long of The Star Tribune. Edwards was among the players chosen to practice with Team USA as part of the Select Team, but was seen limping off the floor last week. A Star Tribune source reports that the injury is non-knee related, and is a sprain.
- The Nuggets held a workout for six draft prospects yesterday, tweets Mike Singer: Josh Christopher, Quentin Grimes, Jason Preston, Duane Washington, Jordan Goodman, and Matt Coleman. Of the six, Christopher and Grimes are the highest-ranked, and either one could potentially be in play when the Nuggets are on the board with the 26th pick.
Southwest Notes: Draft Day Trades, W. Green, Morey, Spurs
Before a Tuesday report indicated that the Rockets are trying to trade up for the No. 1 pick in this year’s draft. Kelly Iko of The Athletic, along with beat writers for other teams, took a look at some potential deals Houston could make with the No. 2 pick. Some were considered hard passes (such as a trade-down with the Kings), others were considered interesting but not good enough (including a trade with the Magic for Nos. 5 and 8, and Wendell Carter Jr.), and only a couple were deemed acceptable. The bottom line: there are deals to be made, but it won’t be easy.
Meanwhile, William Guillory of The Athletic examined four potential trades for the Pelicans with the 10th pick, with beat writers from the Kings, Magic, Cavaliers, and Wolves chiming in on the likelihood of each respective deal’s appeal.
We have more from around the Southwest Division:
- Scott Kushner of the New Orleans Times-Picayune profiles Willie Green, who is expected to be named the next Pelicans head coach. One of the primary appeals of Green, Kushner writes, as opposed to Stan Van Gundy or Alvin Gentry, is his focus on player relationships and establishing trust, rather than instilling a rigidity and system. “The best coaches aren’t necessarily the ones that talk about Xs and Os,” Green said in an interview last year. “It’s doing everything from a place of love. People feel that.”
- When the Rockets were sold to Tilman Fertitta, part of the agreement included guaranteed five-year extensions for GM Daryl Morey, CEO Tad Brown, and others, which had to be paid out even if those execs joined other teams before the deals expired, writes Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle. This could have helped incentivize higher-ups to step down and pursue new opportunities, Feigen notes. This report comes on the heels of Brown being named CEO of the Sixers and New Jersey Devils.
- As two teams that have eschewed all-out tanking in order to find other ways to rebuild, the Spurs could look to Suns GM James Jones for inspiration, writes Mike Finger of The San Antonio Express-News. Jones was not without his fair share of criticism for his moves in 2019 to maintain competitiveness while retooling around star Devin Booker, Finger writes. But by following his own compass – including the surprise selection of playoff breakout Cameron Johnson with the 11th pick after trading down from No. 6 – and taking advantage of the opportunity to trade for Chris Paul, Jones has found his own way to bring the Suns to greatness. Whether the Spurs can do the same remains to be seen.
2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Dallas Mavericks
When the Mavericks acquired Kristaps Porzingis from New York in 2019, they envisioned him as half of a superstar duo alongside Luka Doncic for the next decade. But Porzingis, who flashed star potential in his early years with the Knicks, has plateaued in recent years as ongoing injury problems and his lack of defensive versatility have limited his ability to make a huge on-court impact.
Without a reliable go-to second option in the playoffs – where Porzingis averaged just 13.1 PPG and 5.4 RPG – the Mavs have been unable to break through so far, despite Doncic giving the Clippers all they could handle in the first round for two straight years (including 35.7 PPG and 10.3 APG in Dallas’ seven-game series loss this spring).
Strengthening the supporting cast around Doncic will be the primary goal going forward for the new-look front office, which includes longtime Nike executive Nico Harrison as Dallas’ new general manager. Harrison stepped in following the departure of veteran executive Donnie Nelson.
Meanwhile, it’ll be up to new head coach Jason Kidd to get the most of out the Mavs’ roster. Kidd’s two previous stints running the show in Brooklyn and Milwaukee were up and down, and he’ll have big shoes to fill in replacing Rick Carlisle, who was the NBA’s third longest-tenured head coach. But there’s optimism that Kidd has learned from past mistakes and – as a Hall-of-Fame point guard himself – will be a good mentor for Doncic.
The Mavericks’ Offseason Plan:
The 2021/22 season will likely be the last time for the next 10 or 15 years that Doncic is earning less than the maximum salary, so it would be a good time for the Mavericks to take advantage of their financial flexibility. Besides Porzingis, no one on the roster is currently on the books for more than about $11MM next season.
Unfortunately, the Porzingis contract is an issue. He’ll earn $31.65MM in ’21/22 and a total of $101.5MM over the next three seasons, and he hasn’t lived up to that salary so far. Trading him is an option, but the Mavs will be loath to sell low on the 25-year-old rather than hoping for better injury luck going forward, which might allow Porzingis to rebuild his value.
The contract situations of Josh Richardson and Tim Hardaway Jr. will also compromise the Mavs’ offseason flexibility. Richardson had a somewhat underwhelming first year in Dallas and now seems like a good bet to pick up his $11.6MM player option, cutting into the team’s potential cap room. And if the Mavs want to re-sign Hardaway, an unrestricted free agent, they may end up without any cap room at all, instead operating over the cap and gaining access to the full mid-level exception.
Even if the Mavs, who have traded away both of their 2021 draft picks, can add a solid rotation player with the MLE, they likely won’t be satisfied with simply running back a similar group next season, so I’d expect them to be active on the trade market. Even if a favorable Porzingis deal doesn’t materialize, other veterans – including Dwight Powell and Trey Burke – could be shopped.
Dorian Finney-Smith and Jalen Brunson are terrific bargains for the time being, but are entering contract years and will get more expensive in 2022. If Dallas isn’t able to lock them up to team-friendly extensions this year and isn’t confident in its ability to re-sign them to reasonable deals in unrestricted free agency, the idea of trading them should at least be considered.
The Mavs will also have to reassess 2020 draftees Josh Green and Tyrell Terry, neither of whom had a great rookie season. Their value has dropped, so they may not be especially useful trade chips, in which case Dallas will have to focus on developing them into useful role players.
Perhaps the simplest move of the Mavs’ offseason will be signing Doncic to a maximum-salary rookie scale extension that projects to pay him north of $200MM over five seasons. Ideally, Dallas would avoid adding a fifth-year player option to that deal, but if Doncic insists on it, the club will have to relent.
Salary Cap Situation
Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.
Guaranteed Salary
- Kristaps Porzingis ($31,650,600)
- Dwight Powell ($11,080,125)
- Luka Doncic ($10,174,391)
- Maxi Kleber ($8,825,000)
- Dorian Finney-Smith ($4,000,000)
- Trey Burke ($3,150,000)
- Josh Green ($2,957,520)
- Tyrell Terry ($1,517,981)
- Total: $73,355,617
Player Options
- Josh Richardson ($11,615,328): Bird rights
- Total: $11,615,328
Team Options
- Willie Cauley-Stein ($4,100,000): Early Bird rights
- Total: $4,100,000
Non-Guaranteed Salary
- Jalen Brunson ($1,802,057) 1
- Total: $1,802,057
Restricted Free Agents
- Nicolo Melli ($4,871,795 qualifying offer / $5,066,667 cap hold): Early Bird rights 2
- Total (cap holds): $5,066,667
Two-Way Free Agents
Draft Picks
- None
Extension-Eligible Players
- Luka Doncic (rookie scale)
- Jalen Brunson (veteran)
- Dorian Finney-Smith (veteran)
- Maxi Kleber (veteran)
- Dwight Powell (veteran)
Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds
Tim Hardaway Jr. ($28,462,500): Bird rights
- J.J. Redick ($16,917,810): Early Bird rights
- Boban Marjanovic ($4,550,000): Early Bird rights
- Total: $49,930,310
Offseason Cap Outlook
If we assume Brunson is retained (a safe bet) and Richardson opts in, that increases the Mavs’ guarantees to nearly $87MM for 10 roster spots. Letting everyone else walk would leave Dallas with upwards of $24MM in cap room.
However, if Hardaway re-signs at a number in the neighborhood of his previous salary ($18.98MM), that cap space essentially goes away, and Dallas will be operating over the cap. The team’s outlook could change if it adds or subtracts salary in trades or if Hardaway wants to play elsewhere. For now though, my working assumption is that the team will try to re-sign the free agent wing and will use its full mid-level rather than dipping under the cap.
Cap Exceptions Available
- Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 3
- Bi-annual exception: $3,732,000 3
- Trade exception: $1,678,854
Footnotes
- Brunson’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 2.
- Melli has reached a contract agreement with Italian team Olimpia Milano. The Mavericks could still make the procedural move of tendering him a qualifying offer if they want to retain matching rights in the event of his return to the NBA.
- These are projected values. If the Mavericks decide to operate under the cap, they’d forfeit these exceptions and their trade exception and would instead gain access to the room exception ($4.9MM).
Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders, RealGM, and ESPN was used in the creation of this post.
Eastern Notes: Sexton, Knicks, Heat, Hawks, Raptors
Following up on Shams Charania’s report that the Knicks have been the most aggressive trade suitor for Collin Sexton so far, Marc Berman of The New York Post confirms that the team has the Cavaliers guard on its trade radar.
According to Berman, the Knicks would’ve picked Sexton over Kevin Knox in the 2018 draft if he had slipped to No. 9 instead of being selected at No. 8. Berman adds that Knicks forward Obi Toppin, who played his college ball at Dayton, may be a player the Cavs would target in a trade.
A source tells Berman that the Knicks – who hold the 19th and 21st overall picks – are open to trading out of the first round entirely in order to acquire an “established player.” Sexton has certainly established himself as a talented scorer, having averaged 24.5 points per game in 2020/21, though it’s unclear if New York would be willing to offer both of its first-round picks in a package for him.
Here’s more from around the East:
- Ira Winderman of The South Florida Sun Sentinel explores whether Sexton might be a fit for the Heat, concluding that such an acquisition would have to be accompanied by another significant addition in order to make Miami a legit contender in the East.
- Ayo Dosunmu, Daishen Nix, Kessler Edwards, Cameron Thomas, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Josh Christopher, Joel Ayayi, David Duke, Joe Wieskamp, Luka Garza, Moses Wright, Justin Champagnie, Sandro Mamukelashvili, John Petty, JT Thor, and Carlik Jones are among the prospects that have worked out for the Hawks or will do so soon, reports Chris Kirschner of The Athletic (Twitter link).
- Jalen Suggs is considered the most likely pick for the Raptors at No. 4 and has been referred to as a potential Kyle Lowry replacement. However, Eric Koreen of The Athletic isn’t convinced that the Raps will – or should – resign themselves to losing Lowry if they draft Suggs or another guard, suggesting that the veteran point guard’s free agency won’t be dependent on which player the team selects in the draft.
Pacific Rumors: LeBron, Lakers, Warriors, Lillard, Kings
When LeBron James made the decision in 2018 to sign with the Lakers, there was an expectation that he’d spent the rest of his career in Los Angeles. That plan hasn’t changed, according to Jared Greenspan of The New York Post, who writes that James recently reiterated his desire to play out his career in L.A.
“I truly hope that I can finish my career with the Lakers,” LeBron said during an appearance on the SmartLess podcast. “However many years that is, if it’s four, five, six, whatever, seven. I hope I can continue to play the game. I love being in L.A. My family loves being in L.A. Being with a historical franchise like the Lakers is something.”
James will turn 37 in December, so the idea of him playing six or seven more seasons seems like a long shot. Still, there have been no indications so far that his on-court production is about to fall off a cliff. The Lakers star averaged 25.0 PPG, 7.8 APG, and 7.7 RPG on .513/.365/.698 shooting in 45 games (33.4 MPG) in 2020/21.
Here’s more from around the Pacific:
- Veteran NBA reporter Marc Stein has heard that – in addition to seeking more shooting this offseason – the Lakers want to acquire a “difference-making play-maker” who would allow James and Anthony Davis to spend more time at power forward and center. Stein notes that financial obstacles will likely prevent L.A. from adding such a player in free agency, but he says he wouldn’t be surprised if there are rumors this summer about the Lakers exploring ways to reacquire Lonzo Ball.
- Within a story exploring which teams could put together the best packages for Damian Lillard, Anthony Slater of The Athletic says the Warriors have had internal discussions about pursuing the Trail Blazers guard. While it’s fun to imagine a Lillard/Stephen Curry backcourt, it’s worth taking the news with a grain of salt, since most teams have likely conducted similar talks internally — it doesn’t mean Portland will make Lillard available.
- Baylor guard Jared Butler had dinner with Kings executives on Monday night and is visiting the team facility on Tuesday, according to Jason Anderson of The Sacramento Bee. Due to a heart condition, Butler has been ruled ineligible – at least for now – to participate in on-court workouts, creating uncertainty about his draft status. He had been viewed as a potential mid first-round pick.
Sixers Have Engaged In Ben Simmons Trade Talks
1:07pm: In addition to Indiana and Minnesota, the Cavaliers and Kings are “known suitors” for Simmons, according to Marc Stein, who says the Raptors are also believed to have expressed interest.
9:42am: The Sixers have opened up discussions about a possible Ben Simmons trade and have engaged with teams, reports Shams Charania of The Athletic.
Following a disappointing postseason, there was a sense that Simmons’ value around the NBA may have dipped. However, sources tell Charania that the 76ers’ asking price in their trade talks has been high.
“(They) want an All-Star-caliber player in return,” one source told The Athletic.
Simmons’ reluctance to shoot and his struggles at the free throw line in the second round of the playoffs played a part in the Sixers getting eliminated earlier than expected by Atlanta.
However, the former No. 1 overall pick has a strong NBA résumé, including three All-Star berths and a runner-up finish in this year’s Defensive Player of the Year voting. He’ll be entering his age-25 season and is under contract for four more years — as Charania notes, that kind of team control is rare for a star player on the trade market. Leaguewide interest in Simmons continues to be “robust,” per The Athletic.
According to reports in recent weeks, the Timberwolves are among the teams expected to pursue Simmons, and the Pacers are believed to have made a trade offer.
The Sixers have suggested both publicly and privately that they’re comfortable working with Simmons on his shot this offseason and bringing him back in the fall. While that may be posturing, the team’s high asking price in talks so far indicates that president of basketball operations Daryl Morey won’t be looking to sell off the three-time All-Star at a discount rate.
For what it’s worth, Charania says Simmons appears to be exhibiting a “renewed determination” to improve and expand his game this summer. Whether he’ll play his next game as a member of the Sixers or another franchise remains to be seen.
Southeast Notes: Mosley, Barnes, Wizards, Gallinari, Hornets
Jamahl Mosley has interviewed for head coaching jobs before, but he said the experience with the Magic was different because of the relationships involved. In an interview with Josh Robbins of The Athletic, Mosley talks about his prior experience with president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman in Denver and front office official Anthony Parker in Cleveland.
“I started to sense that there was a little bit of a joy to where it was going,” said Mosley, who was officially hired Sunday morning. “That happened after the second or third interview. It felt good. And I met the DeVos family, and you just saw family. That’s when it really kind of set in.”
Mosley chose to sidestep a question about the end of his time in Dallas, where he served as an assistant to Rick Carlisle for the past seven years. There was an expectation that Mosley might become the Mavericks‘ next head coach when Carlisle left for Indiana, but the front office chose Jason Kidd instead.
“It’s me moving forward, and that’s the best thing,” Mosley said. “I’m moving into a situation that allows me to grow, allows me to walk into exactly what I started out doing, and that’s developing and helping young men become better individuals on and off the court.”
There’s more from the Southeast Division:
- The Magic, who hold picks No. 5 and 8 in this year’s lottery, brought in Florida State forward Scottie Barnes for a private workout over the weekend, Robbins tweets. Barnes is ranked sixth on ESPN’s big board and is considered a possible top-five pick.
- With Bradley Beal eligible for free agency next summer, the Wizards may value veteran help more than the No. 15 pick they hold in the draft, writes Fred Katz of The Athletic. He notes that not many teams are willing to part with useful players in exchange for a mid-round draft choice, but he proposes a few trades involving the Knicks, Lakers, Hawks, Grizzlies and Pacers.
- Hawks forward Danilo Gallinari has confirmed on Instagram that he will play in the Tokyo Olympics. Gallinari has been representing Italy in international competitions since he was a teenager, but this will be his first Olympic Games.
- The Hornets are hosting six players today in a pre-draft workout, according to a tweet from the team. Taking part are West Virginia’s Derek Culver, prep school player Jimma Gatwech, Nikita Mikhailovskii of Avtodor (Russia), UNC-Greensboro’s Isaiah Miller, Georgetown’s Jamorko Pickett and Kentucky’s Olivier Sarr.