When the Mavericks acquired Kristaps Porzingis from New York in 2019, they envisioned him as half of a superstar duo alongside Luka Doncic for the next decade. But Porzingis, who flashed star potential in his early years with the Knicks, has plateaued in recent years as ongoing injury problems and his lack of defensive versatility have limited his ability to make a huge on-court impact.
Without a reliable go-to second option in the playoffs – where Porzingis averaged just 13.1 PPG and 5.4 RPG – the Mavs have been unable to break through so far, despite Doncic giving the Clippers all they could handle in the first round for two straight years (including 35.7 PPG and 10.3 APG in Dallas’ seven-game series loss this spring).
Strengthening the supporting cast around Doncic will be the primary goal going forward for the new-look front office, which includes longtime Nike executive Nico Harrison as Dallas’ new general manager. Harrison stepped in following the departure of veteran executive Donnie Nelson.
Meanwhile, it’ll be up to new head coach Jason Kidd to get the most of out the Mavs’ roster. Kidd’s two previous stints running the show in Brooklyn and Milwaukee were up and down, and he’ll have big shoes to fill in replacing Rick Carlisle, who was the NBA’s third longest-tenured head coach. But there’s optimism that Kidd has learned from past mistakes and – as a Hall-of-Fame point guard himself – will be a good mentor for Doncic.
The Mavericks’ Offseason Plan:
The 2021/22 season will likely be the last time for the next 10 or 15 years that Doncic is earning less than the maximum salary, so it would be a good time for the Mavericks to take advantage of their financial flexibility. Besides Porzingis, no one on the roster is currently on the books for more than about $11MM next season.
Unfortunately, the Porzingis contract is an issue. He’ll earn $31.65MM in ’21/22 and a total of $101.5MM over the next three seasons, and he hasn’t lived up to that salary so far. Trading him is an option, but the Mavs will be loath to sell low on the 25-year-old rather than hoping for better injury luck going forward, which might allow Porzingis to rebuild his value.
The contract situations of Josh Richardson and Tim Hardaway Jr. will also compromise the Mavs’ offseason flexibility. Richardson had a somewhat underwhelming first year in Dallas and now seems like a good bet to pick up his $11.6MM player option, cutting into the team’s potential cap room. And if the Mavs want to re-sign Hardaway, an unrestricted free agent, they may end up without any cap room at all, instead operating over the cap and gaining access to the full mid-level exception.
Even if the Mavs, who have traded away both of their 2021 draft picks, can add a solid rotation player with the MLE, they likely won’t be satisfied with simply running back a similar group next season, so I’d expect them to be active on the trade market. Even if a favorable Porzingis deal doesn’t materialize, other veterans – including Dwight Powell and Trey Burke – could be shopped.
Dorian Finney-Smith and Jalen Brunson are terrific bargains for the time being, but are entering contract years and will get more expensive in 2022. If Dallas isn’t able to lock them up to team-friendly extensions this year and isn’t confident in its ability to re-sign them to reasonable deals in unrestricted free agency, the idea of trading them should at least be considered.
The Mavs will also have to reassess 2020 draftees Josh Green and Tyrell Terry, neither of whom had a great rookie season. Their value has dropped, so they may not be especially useful trade chips, in which case Dallas will have to focus on developing them into useful role players.
Perhaps the simplest move of the Mavs’ offseason will be signing Doncic to a maximum-salary rookie scale extension that projects to pay him north of $200MM over five seasons. Ideally, Dallas would avoid adding a fifth-year player option to that deal, but if Doncic insists on it, the club will have to relent.
Salary Cap Situation
Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.
Guaranteed Salary
- Kristaps Porzingis ($31,650,600)
- Dwight Powell ($11,080,125)
- Luka Doncic ($10,174,391)
- Maxi Kleber ($8,825,000)
- Dorian Finney-Smith ($4,000,000)
- Trey Burke ($3,150,000)
- Josh Green ($2,957,520)
- Tyrell Terry ($1,517,981)
- Total: $73,355,617
Player Options
- Josh Richardson ($11,615,328): Bird rights
- Total: $11,615,328
Team Options
- Willie Cauley-Stein ($4,100,000): Early Bird rights
- Total: $4,100,000
Non-Guaranteed Salary
- Jalen Brunson ($1,802,057) 1
- Total: $1,802,057
Restricted Free Agents
- Nicolo Melli ($4,871,795 qualifying offer / $5,066,667 cap hold): Early Bird rights 2
- Total (cap holds): $5,066,667
Two-Way Free Agents
Draft Picks
- None
Extension-Eligible Players
- Luka Doncic (rookie scale)
- Jalen Brunson (veteran)
- Dorian Finney-Smith (veteran)
- Maxi Kleber (veteran)
- Dwight Powell (veteran)
Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds
Tim Hardaway Jr. ($28,462,500): Bird rights
- J.J. Redick ($16,917,810): Early Bird rights
- Boban Marjanovic ($4,550,000): Early Bird rights
- Total: $49,930,310
Offseason Cap Outlook
If we assume Brunson is retained (a safe bet) and Richardson opts in, that increases the Mavs’ guarantees to nearly $87MM for 10 roster spots. Letting everyone else walk would leave Dallas with upwards of $24MM in cap room.
However, if Hardaway re-signs at a number in the neighborhood of his previous salary ($18.98MM), that cap space essentially goes away, and Dallas will be operating over the cap. The team’s outlook could change if it adds or subtracts salary in trades or if Hardaway wants to play elsewhere. For now though, my working assumption is that the team will try to re-sign the free agent wing and will use its full mid-level rather than dipping under the cap.
Cap Exceptions Available
- Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 3
- Bi-annual exception: $3,732,000 3
- Trade exception: $1,678,854
Footnotes
- Brunson’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 2.
- Melli has reached a contract agreement with Italian team Olimpia Milano. The Mavericks could still make the procedural move of tendering him a qualifying offer if they want to retain matching rights in the event of his return to the NBA.
- These are projected values. If the Mavericks decide to operate under the cap, they’d forfeit these exceptions and their trade exception and would instead gain access to the room exception ($4.9MM).
Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders, RealGM, and ESPN was used in the creation of this post.
For having one of the best players in the league, Dallas is really in bad shape. They have a broken Porzingis, a couple of other players that would barely get off the bench for some other teams and not much young talent at all.
You just have to wonder if Luka is destined to be a regular first round exit for his career.
He’s young enough that I think he’ll either figure it out in Dallas or just request a trade to somewhere where he can contend.
But Dallas is a great example of the rookie max killing a team. Cleveland is running into the same questions with Sexton and I’m sure Atlanta will be with Collins.
Taps is probably capable of being a 3rd guy for a team, but the fact he’s making 30m for the next 3 years is going to make it a difficult needle to thread to get a contender around Luka much before 2025.
Atlanta has Trae and Cam. The
Mavs need to move on from Poz. Kevin Love maybe had as salary’s match maybe Cleveland would throw a bone like Sexton for a pick.
Dallas has sufficient $$ flexibility to improve, but they have to clean up what they can and accommodate the rest. There’s no “moving on” from KP6. That’s OK, he’s their only bad contract, and if he can stay healthy, he can play to his contract. If not, then not, but Luka should be their only other big $$ salary and it won’t start until year after next. Most importantly, they need to say NO to THJ.
Offer KP Powell Burke Green to cavs for Sexton Love Osman
Resign Timmy Reddick Boban
Richardson opts in
Sign Noel with mid level
Sign another big and wing to finish off roster
Nahh, Love wouldn’t be any better than KP and Sexton and Doncic wouldn’t work in the same backcourt.
Any logical reason Luka and Sexton wouldn’t work together? I’m struggling here
Both need the ball in their hands and neither play D. The Mavs would just be doubling down with a shorter THJ.
Sexton most def plays D. He’s actually a pretty enticing player next to Luka. Sexton guards the PG and Luka can guard the lesser of the wings. Helps take some D pressure off Luka. And the only reason Love moves over is to get off Porzingis. It’s actually a pretty good deal if the Cavs go for it. They can resign THJ and they have a lineup of Luka-Sexton-DFS-Kleber-WCS. And a bench of Brunson-THJ-Bey-Love-Boban. They need to get into the second round for a couple picks this year. This draft class is loaded with talent. A guy like the big from North Carolina or the big from Texas. Maybe even Greg Brown who’s super athletic falls into the second. There’s lots of potential in this draft. Buying some second rounders like the warriors used to do could b a possibility
Sexton TRIES to play D, he’s just small at 6’1″ and 180
That is his job to try, no one can do more than that or should be expected to do more than that… so what is your point?
I’m not sure if you guys have been watching but Luka is one of the most gifted passers we’ve laid eyes on. Only better players to dish the rock are Lebron and Joker (and Lonzo Ball if your name is Zion) Saying Luka is no help off the ball is ridiculous. Sexton and Luka would be great for Dallas
Mavs current team salary $85 million
Salary cap $112 million
Salary cap Subtotal $27 million
Roster charge $5 million
Mavs salary cap $$22 million
Hardaway Cap hold $28.5 million
Mavs have Negative salary cap $6.5 million as of now assume that they plan to keep Hardaway
Wiggins for Porzingas straight up. 2 youngish guys getting slightly overpaid can fill a need for the teams involved, and looking to rebuild thier value. Wiggins can help cover Luka’s lack of D and knock down shots. KP gives the Warriors a big that can stretch the floor and hopefully give them a little bit if a defensive rim presence.
Something around porzingis and vucevic might work. Vuc clearly more reliable, porzingis more upside and young enough to line up with bulls core of lavine, white, Williams.
They either need to get Hardaway on a decent deal or try and get Powell or Dinwiddie or even Schroeder on a reasonable deal while they have the space, because once Luka’s extension kicks in they’re capped unless they can dump KP6 (unlikely).
Having said that, I would look to move KP6 for whatever I could get at this point. He doesn’t seem to enjoy playing with Luka, he’s failed to develop into a true 5, failed to add a post up game that would prevent teams from playing him with Pat Beverley, and he’s a huge injury risk every year. I would take Kemba. If I could get in on Sexton I’d look at that too.
I don’t know if KP6 will improve with a change of scenery but I think he’ll be addition by subtraction in Dallas.
The Richardson thing is a bummer, but maybe – assuming he opts in – he has a bounce back year looking for another contract. This team is a few tweaks away, really. If Richardson steps up, they retain Hardaway of sign a facsimile, Kleiber comes back strong, you flip KP for Kemba or Sexton – I don’t know … I think this team could be a darkhorse.
Or put it this way: If they beat LAC in the first round, is it that crazy to think they could have beat a Utah that cratered? Then at least have given Phoenix a run for their money?
DAL should be open to trading Zinger for Wiggins. Or just about any salary match including those two, which can be expanded. Guess what, Wigs can score twenty also. It will still be up to Doncic.
It’s hard to tolerate these overproud GMs and it seems an owner has to fire him just to get players he acquired moving. I hope that is the case here, with a new braintrust.
KP to Knicks ….. we’ll take him back. Noel, Nttilikina, Payton, plus your #1 pick ……
KP is never going to have sustained and consistent success. Until he gains 30 LBs of muscle, weight. He should of been on high protein diet since yr one. Steak n potatoes lol. He’s not a 4 he’s not Dirk. He’s a center who can play outside cause he can shoot. But he has to play center and that means D as a center. For that he needs the weight.
They need THJ and at the same time need someone better then THJ