Having polled 16 front office sources around the NBA about what “fair” contracts for restricted free agents Jonathan Kuminga and Josh Giddey would look like, Fred Katz of The Athletic did the same for Quentin Grimes of the Sixers, another RFA who has been in a standoff with his team for the last several weeks.
According to Katz, 13 of the 16 respondents to his poll suggested annual salaries between $12MM and $16.7MM per year from Grimes, with one projection coming in lower ($10MM) and two going slightly higher (one $18MM and one $18.8MM). Eleven of the sources polled suggested a three-year deal for the 25-year-old, with four indicating they’d do four years and just one saying he’d do only two seasons.
The executive who was lowest on Grimes explained that he’d only be comfortable with $30MM over three years because he wasn’t swayed by the guard’s second-half scoring outburst for a banged-up Sixers team that was essentially in tanking mode.
Another exec, who said he’d do a three-year, $40MM contract, argued that it was hard to pay big-time money for a player like Grimes when a veteran with a similar skill set like Gary Trent Jr. signed for the minimum (Trent actually signed for a little more than the minimum, though the point stands).
Other participants in the poll were higher on Grimes, including one who expressed a level of comfort with a four-year, $75MM investment.
“There are not many Swiss Army knife wings out there that score it as efficiently, defend, pass or rebound like he does,” that staffer said. “He might not be elite at any one thing, but (he’s) very good at a lot of them.”
A number of respondents suggested a deal in the range of the mid-level, with one observing that something in the same “ballpark” as what Caris LeVert (two years, $28.9MM) and Nickeil Alexander-Walker (four years, $60.6MM) got in terms of annual average value would make sense for Grimes.
“I like Quentin Grimes. He’s a very good player,” another exec said. “I would present him with two options: You can have a three-year, $48 million deal or a four-year, $60 million. … You say to him, ‘Do you want money or do you want longevity?’ And if he says both, you say, ‘We can’t offer both.'”
As we noted when we passed along the results of Katz’s polls on Kuminga and Giddey, these responses come with an important caveat — rival team executives, who will have their own contract negotiations to deal with going forward and don’t want the market to be set too high for their own guys, are more likely to take a conservative view when asked to project a player’s contract. The responses in a poll of 16 agents would almost certainly come in higher.
Still, with no indication that a rival suitor is positioning itself to make an aggressive play for Grimes, the Sixers have a good deal of leverage in the negotiations and will be motivated to keep the guard’s first-year salary at a manageable number. Philadelphia is currently operating a little below the luxury tax line and has roughly $21.7MM in wiggle room below the second tax apron, so bringing in Grimes for a lower number would help keep the club’s projected tax penalty in check and would open up more room for the front office to maneuver in apron territory.
As a Bulls fan this front office never fails to amaze me but tbh Giddey at 4/100 ain’t a bad shout. I’d be happy with that.
Once we unload Vooch and PWil that deal is very solid and Gives flexibility especially considerinG how the CBA has chokeholded some teams.
I think one of the holdups on Giddey is just HOW much money CHI has in the tank moving forward
It gives an absurd amount of leverage to Giddeys agent
TBH just frontload it and it shouldn’t become a big problem ever, Im not 100% sure the Chi FO knows that’s a possibility sadly
As Sixers fan I’m comfortable with this range. Personally I see it as a win if they get him for under 15 million ayear. I originally said 4 at under 80 million but with how long its dragged out and how bullish everyone is on him I feel like the deal will be even cheaper.
Not exactly sure this is a great look for the NBA
Lets be honest owners are reveling in this CBA and taking every measure they can too stifle salaries. Polls like this just seem to be a slap in the face and bordering unethical to the Fab 4 Rfa left ….I didn’t see any polls capping NAW or Myles or DFS out there before they signed
I get its August dead zone but I think these polls are more harmful than helpful to the product and the process of getting players paid adequately. I dont mind them after the dust has cleared but lets give the teams and players a fair space to operate in until we do get all the inks
absolutely. I’m surprised they are doing this whole polling other league execs as negotiations are ongoing. professional sports is getting out of hand.
Alright first comment on owners is dead on. I have been saying for a bit that I think some owners possibly hardcap themselves on purpose so they can’t be pressured into spending more. The others draw this mythical apron line as impossible to cross when it’s not the team-building issues they are afraid of but more so the crazy tax like suns paid that they are afraid of. The teambuilding issues from aprons are just a good excuse but they are definitely reveling in it.
I get what you mean about putting out a market but I don’t disagree with anything they said that came out on any of the RFAs yet. Grimes is a a mle guy in this market and at most slightly more (dal moved on because they didn’t want to pay him more than 9-10). Giddy and kuminga are both not close to max players or 30m guys 20m ish a year feels right.
Players need to get a better understanding of what they are because no one wants to fumble the bag like nerlens Noel did when he was offered 4/70 and said he wanted max and they just rescinded the offer.
The one thing that hurts players most though if they wanted to leave is no one will give an offer sheet for a reasonable number because there is no cap space and if they did it will just get matched. Most of these guys if they wanted to bet on themselves should take 2 yr deals make some good money – work with the team in the background to get traded for value where they want to be and then extend at the new team but qualifying offers don’t really help anyone.
Unfortunately the problem isn’t just the league, but also the NBPA. Their leadership was more than happy to vote for a CBA that they surely knew would squeeze the middle class and reduce the overall pool of money. But because the max guys got theirs, apparently all was well.
I remember being surprised at the time that they didn’t get any additional concessions from the league in exchange for the second apron changes and, to a lesser extent, the RFA process. That, to me, was a bad sign and things have played out exactly as many of us expected.
Shea – Yup looking forward to seeing how Cj feels after he gets vet mins next off-season
Absolutely, the players association has looked after a certain “ kind “ here for awhile now
Reminds me of the silly Machado / Harper days when baseball went from broken to A-Ok when they finally both inked thier late off season mega deals – complete absurdity
Grimes is definitely closer to $30M than Kuminga is, I will give him that. Grimes was really good in 22-23 on the Knicks too. Really interested to see how his next 5 years pan out. Could keep improving from a solid base and become an all-star.
Kuminga for Grimes for Giddey – I really want to see all 3 teams play musical chairs with these guys, just for the symmetry
sometimes you take a gamble on a player and it pans out. I point to Jalen Brunson and NY. Remember EVERYONE felt it was a massive overpay for NYK.
Grimes had a nice run there at the end of the season when he was a top option for a severely undermanned team. I think the $10-15 million range seems appropriate. If he wants to bet on himself or the possibility of the Sixers health imploding again, he may choose to sign a one or two year contract and hit unrestricted free agency sooner.
In this in-between NBA period, when it seems there are no posts about the Celtics, let me just ask: if you can pick just one, and forget about paychecks if you can, which of the three players mentioned above, Giddey, Grimes and Kuminga, would you want on your team?
interesting question. all three are intriguing when you think about giving their more opportunity to shine. I would say Grimes has done the most so far with his situations. Giddey might be the most versatile of the 3. Kuminga might have the highest ceiling and already the most athletic of the 3. If i had to pick 1 I would probably go with Grimes.
Giddey
If he can become an avg defender he offers so much on the other end of the floor
Running an offence is still the best trait avail in the NBA (see Indy)
Giddey no contest.
Giddey. His “bad defense” is overblown. He’s actually quite competent inside the arc as a defender, intercepts balls and affects shots. His time in OKC did him good on that end. And he’s a very good rebounder, tied for best with Hart among backcourt players. With that, he’s already a net positive when the opponent has the ball. Advanced stats like him for a reason.
And he can run a team, and he’s already quite good at that. That’s hard to beat.
But honestly, they are all quite good. On my team (Wizards) I’d want Giddey>Kuminga>Grimes. On other teams, the order might be different. Denver might want Grimes more, Phoenix could use Kuminga for more inside scoring.
Giddey and it’s not close. I still have a few doubts about him, but he has improved as a shooter, has a valuable skillset, and isn’t terrible on the defensive end thanks to his size and instincts. Best mix of upside and likelihood of reaching said upside. And in terms of weaknesses, I prefer Giddey’s D >>> Kuminga’s D.
Next is Grimes who has the lowest ceiling of the 3, but I feel is the most likely to reach it. Even if he’s 70% of the guy who had that crazy run down the stretch last season last, that would be valuable for a lot of teams. Of course, there’s a chance that was more of a fluke than anything else, but aside from lower efficiency I think it’s generally repeatable.
With Kuminga, I simply do not trust low BBIQ, bad D, questionable motor players who respond poorly to adversity (ie, instead of doing what he needed to do in order to see more time under Kerr, he pouted and is seemingly fixated on one side of the ball). The upside is undeniable, but I’m not convinced he gets there in terms of impact on winning even with increased playing time. That said, if I could take a chance on said upside at a relatively reasonable price I think you take that in a vacuum
Kuminga ….. has best potential still imo. He is long and can be a dominant scorer on right team, system.
I like all three …
The REAL ….. latest on Kuminga. Facts
link to yardbarker.com
Exactly as I said a month ago.
20+ is too much and should use LeVert and NAW as comparisons with 15mil a fair figure
The NBA does have a way to set the market. PT is the big one for a young player. All three players are number one picks. So upside and potential still serves them. Giddey is the one who has gotten the consistent mins. Kuminga has been yo-yod by Warriors and especially Kerr.
Grimes has bounced around three teams. Before getting a real shot in Philly his fourth team. And this was only cause they were tanking. We all do realize he has been moved mostly cause teams didn’t want to deal with his RFA. You Have to give Grimes credit. For taking advantage of his mins in Philly. What the article doesn’t say. Is he has looked the best physically in Philly. He is leaner and looks in top shape.
As a Knick fan. I always said. If Grimes gets his handle tighter, look out. Well !!!!! what do you know …….
I don’t hate on players for wanting to get paid. But we all know not all of them are worth it. Every case is different. But guys like Suggs and Quickley have set the market. Every team deserves the right to judge their own player. Like the Thunder did ….
Imo Grimes is not worth a 5 yr contract. Getting a three yr TO at fair value is way to go. He can always redo his contract…… 12-15 mill a yr imo
Whoever said Grimes is only worth 3/30 should be fired for stupidity, especially if they meant that in the context of what he should command without the RFA anchor. Plus, the GTJ comparison is a weak one. The latter is overrated as a defender (being a gambler =/ a good defender) and this shot selection has always left something to be desired. Granted, I didn’t watch him as much last season as in years past, but unless his profile has changed…
I’m not saying Grimes is an elite defender or likely to repeat his 2nd half run but the numbers he did put up during that stretch were generally efficient, and that should count for something considering the players he had around him. This wasn’t a guy chucking up a bunch of shots and putting up points on low efficiency.
16-17MM sounds about right if you view his finish to the season as progress, 13-14MM if you’d be a bit more skeptical.
Giddey is an All-Star in the making.
Kid is 23 and a walking triple double. The shot is improving and the defense will follow. He’s easily worth $30M AAV.
Bulls have made so many bad signings the last few years they’re afraid to make a good one.
I’m surprised the Nets didn’t try to sign Giddey to an offer sheet. Nets are really really high on Igor Denim, apparently.
Grimes is a 3 and D who played 1/3 of a season with a shot diet he’ll never see again into a larger payday. 76ers already getting killed for the PG signing and Embiid can’t stay on the court.
Philly can’t hamstring themselves with another bad contract. Grimes not worth over $15M AAV.
Kuminga is a riddle.
First off is he a 3 or a 4? He can score, creatively at that, but his rebounding is terrible and his defense is not great. IMO he’s a prototype 6th man, not a starter (not a good team anyhow).
Warriors know what they have in JK. They already question his motor. I think they’re waiting for a sign and trade to deal to develop rather than overpay.
Kuminga is a 3. He’s better at defending 1-3, and matches up better against a 3 in attacks. But they don’t look for matchups in GS, they run sets.
He’s often asked to do PF-type stuff and is a 4 in a lineup. Which is understandable given that he’s in GS, and they play undersized.
He’s 6’6 without shoes.
Interesting the Kings supposedly high on JK. They already are playing undersized with Murray at the 4 and Sabonis at the 5.
Kings defense will get killed on the interior with JK and Sabonis. I don’t know why they traded Jonas V? A gift to the Nuggets.
3 years at the 14.1 no player options, if you give an option team only