Thunder big man Chet Holmgren has agreed to a fully-guaranteed, five-year maximum rookie contract extension, ESPN’s Shams Charania reports (Twitter link).
Holmgren’s first-year salary under the extension will start at 25% of the 2026/27 salary cap, ESPN’s Bobby Marks tweets. Based on the NBA’s latest cap projection, that would work out to a five-year, $240MM deal.
The second pick of the 2022 draft, Holmgren has battled through injuries in his first three years as a pro but has excelled during his time on the court.
After not playing at all during the 2022/23 season due to a foot injury suffered during the offseason, Holmgren bounced back to start every game in the 2023/24 season, averaging 16.5 points, 7.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 2.3 blocks per night.
A pelvic fracture limited Holmgren to 32 regular season games this past season. He posted averages of 15.0 points, 8.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 2.2 blocks prior to the playoffs, then started all 23 postseason contests en route to the franchise’s first championship since moving to Oklahoma City. He averaged 15.2 points, 8.7 rebounds, 1.0 assists and 1.9 blocks during the title run.
Holmgren joins league Most Valuable Player Shai Gilgeous-Alexander among current OKC players to receive max extensions. The next order of business is to give star forward Jalen Williams a max contract of his own. He’s also eligible for a rookie scale extension this offseason.
While we’ll wait for the official details to confirm, it doesn’t sound as if Holmgren’s deal will include Rose Rule language that could increase the value of that first year beyond 25% of the cap if he makes an All-NBA team, wins Defensive Player of the Year, or is named MVP.
Charania’s report does say the value of the extension could reach $250MM, which would exceed the projected value of a standard 25% max deal even if the cap rises by the maximum allowable 10% next year (it’d be worth $246.6MM in that scenario). However, that may just be a case of generously rounding up.
Pick #2 Chet
5 years $250
Pick #3: Jabari Smith
5 years $122 million
How about Pick #4 Keegan Murray ？
Happy for Chet and the possibility he won’t feel like doing those ridiculous at&t advertisements.
If I had that kind of money I’d only do ads for, like, my favorite local restaurants.
Gotta pay him but they will regret this. He’s going to be injured half the deal and OKC’s year was a fluke. When #4 seed in R2 is your top seeded round, you got lucky.
Air – Gimme a break. No one was as good as OKC this year. Period. Injuries and “upsets” happen every year.
Well deserved! Chet Holmgren was definitely the 3rd best player during the championship run.
Chet & Porzingis are the only 2 “Unicorns” with a ring in today’s NBA. Will Wemby be next? 🤔
Probably won’t happen but I’m wondering if this deal is to match salaries for a Giannis trade or someone else in the future. 250M for a guy that doesnt stay healthy is a massive overpay.
What makes them “unicorns” exactly? Being over 7 feet tall, can make the occasional 3 point shot and miss more games than you actually play for your team???
Chris Boucher has entered the chat
But Chris Boucher has never been the 2nd or even 3rd best player on his NBA teams
He’s widely considered a unicorn because of his size and skillset and fits the criteria named.
I have never heard Chris Boucher referred to as a unicorn by Matt Devlin or Jack Armstrong. Sure, there was one article by Sports Illustrated like, 7 years ago, but up until Wemby and Chet, Porzingis has been the one that I remember being referred to as such.
His nickname is the “Unicorn” did you stroke out?
*was the Unicorn forgot about SD
Jokic has even been referred to as a Unicorn.
It’s all subjective.
If we want to use the traditional sense of the word. Size and shooting; then Boucher fits that criteria.
Well if Jokic fits the criteria then so does Durant. lol
A unicorn is any player with a unique skill set, meaning nobody else in the league shares those exact same variables. Unicorn doesn’t have a specific skill set. And of course, being a star level player is implied, as unicorns don’t represent replacement level anything.
This signing was a mistake. Holmgren has missed 132 of a possible 246 games over the first three years of his career, only managing to play in 46% of his teams games since he was drafted. Giving an injury prone player a max extension is a terrible idea and I can’t understand why GM’s keep doing it.
Chet was on pace for DPOY finalist.
Th freak fall happens, the rookie year injury doesn’t really matter or count. The other games missed would have been load management.
Not trading Chet which would drastically shorten the window.
You’re seriously overvaluing him. The Thunder went 42 – 8 without him during the season which included a 15 game winning streak at one point. He might have played good in the playoffs, but they were the best team in the league without him. Now, they’re handcuffed to an injury prone player that isn’t needed.
If that’s your argument, you can also say that Shai was overvalued and shouldn’t have beaten Jokic for MVP this year. The Thunder were 5-1 without him this past season (or 83.3% winning percentage), and were still one of the best teams in the league without him.
Just saying. There was a reason he was a top prospect in his draft year, and even with injuries, he has shown that he’s what, a top 30 player in the league? And he’s only going into his 3rd season, not even in his prime years yet. You’re clearly undervaluing him. And at this point, the fact that you’re still questioning OKC managements decision is baffling as they are clearly in a class of their own in team building.
This is a bit of a reach. SGA missed 7% of the season while Chet was out for 61% of the season.
If that’s your argument, you overvalued your logic.
Just saying.
Oh yeah, I totally reached on that argument, just like @againigan reached in his.
Sure, Chet had the fluke injury during summer league the year he got drafted. Then he went on to play 100% of the games in his first season of play. Then he suffered that second injury in his second season of play this year and missed 39 straight games, and goes back to playing well.
Freak injuries happen in sports, but it’s still too quick to label him injury-prone. He’s not Porzingis-level yet, let alone Zion-level or Embiid-level lol
But my point still stands that he has shown so far that he is a top 30 player in this league even with the major injuries, and is an important part of OKC’s schemes, so I’m not surprised he got paid.
Sure okay. They’re fluke injuries until they keep happening and games keep getting missed. Trust me as a Blazer fan, we said the same thing about Oden.
Time will tell with Chet.
There is absolutely no reaching at all in my statement.
Fact: The Thunder were the best team in the league with or without Chet Holmgren. If you really want to get into it, they were actually better without him (42-8 84%) than they were with him (26-6 81.25%).
Fact: Chet Holmgren has only managed to play in 46% of his teams games in his first three seasons. Zion Williamson has only managed to play in 43% of his teams games in his first six seasons.
They’re both injury prone, and neither one is worth a max extension.
@AncientOne Yeah, Chet would have been a DPOY finalist if he had just played more and Tobias Harris would have won the MVP if he had just played better. Trying to shoehorn players into accolades they didn’t earn is silliness.
Haa
People are too quick to label a guy as injury prone. Might Chet be? Sure. His height and body structure were always reason for some level of concern. But it’s only two injuries thus far. Significant ones to be sure, but let’s hit the brakes on the narrative that his body is crumbling apart.
Agree
Glad Chet got paid JDub is next the core stays together with the bevy of picks and talent.
just like that now OKC will be facing tough decisions in 2 years. The new CBA will be tough for them to contune after 2027 season.
Seems like a 2027 problem. They’re trying to win now. They’ll take care of that when it comes. Presti can figure it out.
Arc, if they 3peat by 2027, I think they would be willing to make that sacrifice. I’m stoked on seeing how Topic is next year in the league.
CBA was designed to break up a dynasty. OKC did a good job on building a team but now comes the hardest part keeping a young team together. Next year every team in the league will play even tougher against them to knock them off the top spot. The west will be an all out dog fight next year with only 1 team that as of right now look like a easy win.
Agree with you that CBA was created to breakup dynasties. After the KD fiasco which was terrible for the league (which GSW fans won’t ever complain about), Adam Silver decided the best teams shouldn’t have the luxury to afford the top players in FA. Everyone who was around 10 years ago knew that the CBA would get tougher and tougher, especially with guys like Ryan Anderson getting $80M in the summer of KD.
1) You need to draft well, and by well I mean hit a home run or two in atleast 3-4 of your drafts.
2) Establish a culture with a coach who is young enough to relate towards modern NBA.
3) Have a rabid fanbase that cares about it’s team.
4) Recognizing certain flaws or limitations with their own players (this is why Giddey got traded for AC).
As much as you say the CBA will ruin OKC’s chances, I truly believe that this team might go on a Spurs like run from 99-07. Duncan/Parker/Ginobili all were young and entering their prime with a HC who had a knack of playing to their strengths. Sound familar? Fast forward 25+ years later and you see OKC who has a similar culture and front office with intelligent decision making guys.
i don’t see OKC going on a big run. the next 2 years they must win a championship or it will never happen. GSW was not the first to going after a super team that was Miami. You can even complain about Boston getting NBA blessing to be able to go over hard cap with Larry Bird contract. If the CBA chnages OKC could have a long run but the CBA needs to change.
Miami? $58M was the hard cap in 2010-11 (the year LBJ went to Miami). Also, I’m talking about TOP teams…Miami before LBJ from 2007-2009 were floundering. Meanwhile, GSW was the first team that I can think off on the top of my head that had a historic season and wound up with the best player in the FA market. That’s when Adam Silver decided to change the CBA. Top teams in NBA will not be able to afford the best FA, that is why he changed the CBA. It singlehandedly changed the trajectory and perception of the CBA and how teams have to approach FA.
FWIW, the hard cap in 2015-16 (73-9 GSW team) was at $70M and then it BOOMS to $94M in one season? KD made $26M in the 2016-17 season. It’s hard not too corelate the two.
to sign KD the warriors had to give up Harrison barnes a young player coming into his peak that put up 19 points a game after becoming a free agent. So they still would have been a good team even without KD. Curry wnet to play making so his stats went way down when KD came to the club. If KD never came to teh warriors Curry would have won at least 1 more MVP. Lebron move to Miami was to create a super team. Dwayne also resigned with the Heat after Lebron went there take less money. You should remember Bulls offered more money to Wade than the Heat.
I think I would be content with giving up HB for KD at the time. Any sane person would do the same. Miami moving to create a super team? I agree, but we’re talking about what Miami was previously before the big 3 happened. GSW literally won 73 games and lost, causing Draymond to infamously recruit KD for the following season. Yeah we offered Wade more but he turned it down bc he didn’t like the way Jerry handled MJ’s last season here. He wasn’t going to come even if we wrote a blank check, which is surprising because in 2016, he came here regardless lol.
My point is they still would have won with Barnes. Just KD was the one that made it easy to beat every team. A lot of people didn’t know cavs was the top payroll which help them beat a weak east.
arc89, I believe you are wrong about the effect of the CBA on the OKC.
Ironically, the CBA favors OKC because it rewards so heavily for rookie extensions and penalizes so heavily with veteran supermax deals. Because of the CBA, it’s unlikely any team will catch OKC in roster strength for the next 6 years. It can’t be done without developing superstar talent through the draft, and that takes time.
See my post below for the numbers.
CBA will hurt OKC just like the warriors. They can get by for the next 2 seasons but after that its going to be tough and just 1 big injury. Just like warriors goodbye to those top 10 draft picks for a while.
Rather than repeating generalizations, maybe give some specifics? Because it sounds like you’re not familiar with the numbers. Obviously, an injury to a superstar kills any team’s chances, but that’s unrelated to the CBA, right?
I’ve laid out the numbers in a below post. Maybe respond to that?
@raz427
Say it louder for the people at the back
“After the KD fiasco which was terrible for the league (which GSW fans won’t ever complain about)”
Except they can get ahead of it early enough thanks to the sheer amount of talent and draft capital the team possesses to try and pivot away from one or more of the expensive guys. Won’t be easy trying to walk that fine line, but if there’s anyone who can do it it’s Presti.
Or they can just ride this out to its limit. Either way the future looks bright currently.
Chet hasn’t even hit his ceiling yet, if he develops consistency and stays healthy, which is scary to me. Happy for the guy. More importantly, they are attempting to keep the core together. Plus with the amount of picks they possess and already have team friendly deals for a bunch of their bench guys, it’s scary how they can improve next year and be even better.
I still think they will need an athletic stretch 4 in due time but hopefully they stay healthy and hungry next year.
It’s wild to hear that someone who just signed for 5/240, still needs to find health and consistency.
Wonder if I-Hart hits the trade block after Williams extension. His godfather contract based on the premise OKC would have a couple years before handing out these ludicrous extensions to their core players.
I think SGA is going to make 70M next season. Absolutely absurd.
Hartenstein has a team option so they probably just decline it and let him walk. I think Dort also has a team option.
Huge overpay for slenderman
Massive
The thunder 2026-27 salaries are already at $205M, with the first apron at $209, and Jalen Williams is not even on the books for that year. If they give him Chet money then they go right through it.
This team will have lose either one of their top 3 players at that point or three of Hartenstein, Caruso, Dort and Wallace.
2nd apron is likely $222 in 26/27. They hold a team option on iHart for $28 and an option on kenrich for $7. They will be fine
If they give Jalen the same deal as Holmgren then their salaries will be $246M. Subtract the $35M for Hart and Kendrick, they’re at $211M.
But now you have to replace two players AND you need a decent center to replace Hartenstein. So, at least $12 to $15M for a center and a minimum to replace Kendrick. And you’re over the 2nd apron.
Then in 27-28 you need to pay Dort and Wallace. So, the thunder who did so well because of their depth are no longer going to have it.
With a trove of draft picks, they can trade their higher priced role players or let them walk. They draft well and can replace them with rookie contracts.
They probably hope this year’s pick will be the cost friendly Hartenstein replacement eventually
Clearly Presti believes in him as a key to their potential dynasty. It’s hard for me to question Presti’s decisions given his track record.
If Jokic forces a trade after next year they can flip him and picks to Denver to get even better.
They better continue winning because once these deep playoff runs end. That owner is going on a fire sale.
Well now they have to max out J Dub too because he is a lot better than Chet
They paid 250m for some skin grissle and tendons. Hopefully there’s a muscle mass clause 😆
Cool. Now muscle up.
Absolutely ridiculous to pay Chet that amount, but OKC just won a championship.
They now have the obligation, the mandate to overpay their players and navigate salary cap hell the soonest.
Presti has got this though.
A quick calculation shows the Thunder will have plenty of room to retain a Championship roster, both 2 years from now (sorry Arc89), and beyond. Hartenstein in likely gone in 2026-27 and Caruso by 2027-28, but everything else should remain intact, including the ability to sign free agents.
Keep the Thunder’s current spending profile in mind: in 2024-25 they were $25.4 million over the $141M salary cap and $11M under the $178M first apron. In other words, unlike some posts here suggest, they aren’t trying to stay under the salary cap, only the first apron.
For 2027-2028: let’s assume max rookie extensions for Holmgren and Jalen Williams, and SGA on a new supermax deal:
* Projected Salary Cap (2027-28): $182M (based on a 10% increase from the 2026-27 projected cap, as per NBA estimates)
* Projected First Apron (2027-28): $231M
* SGA’s current supermax extension kicks in 2027-28, projecting to $63.5M.
* Holmgren’s and Jalen Williams’ 5-year Max Rookie Extensions A max rookie extension starts at 25% of the salary cap. For 2027-28, this would be 25% of $182M, or $45M.
* Total for “Big 3”: $63,5M + $45,5M + $45M = $154.5M
* Amount remaining under Salary Cap: $182M – $154.M = $27.5M
* Amount remaining under First Apron: $231M – $154.5M = $76M
Outlook for 2027-28 with Big 3 on max deals:
1. With $76.M under the first apron, the Thunder would have flexibility. They could resign Lu Dort, Cason Wallace, etc, etc.
2. They would have access to the full Mid-Level Exception ($17M) and Bi-Annual Exception ($6M) to sign free agents.
3. Don’t forget the Thunder’s ridiculously prolific draft/youth pipeline.
Love the detail in depth post Aristotle. Gives good insight.
Except that aristotle is only talking about 3 players for 2027-2028. For that year they already have Caruso and Wiggins under contract for a little under 30m. That leaves them with based on the great aristotles computation 46m to complete 8 open roster slots.
Those figures are “ideal” and is only nice to see until you look at it deeper. I wouldnt call it in depth yet as it only scratched the surface with the bigger and more important factors not disclosed to make it look nice or good. Again, L take from aristotle.
@Tallballer. It’s only scratching the surface if ur a hater. Look at those numbers man. After The Big 3 OKC will have about $100 million to pay the next 12 guys.
$76.6 million under the 1st apron
$16.6 million for MLE
$6 million for BAE
= $100 million
$100M is a lot. Maybe no room for iHart. But everyone else stays, no problem. And all the young cheap first rounders are banging on the door
Get on your knees for Sam Presti. He beat the CBA
@arete18
Sure aristotle’s burner.
Again all of those figures are ideal and not indicative of the true numbers OKC will have by 2026-2027.
Also you dont add the value of the MLE to the space before the 1st apron. Once you use the Non Tax paper MLE, you’re hard capped meaning the assumed 16.6 MLE is part of the 76.6M available to use. You are left with just 60M left, again you still have to deduct Caruso and Wiggins deal and youre left with 30M for the rest of the roster once you’ve used the MLE and hard capped at the 1st apron. They can of course split the MLE to multiple players. Realistically, theyd only have 30M to spend based on the “great” aristotles computation.
If you dont know and would rather call people hater, then so be it. Just giving you a glimpse of the true reality that the CBA will prevent any Dynasty, including this iteration of the OKC once they hammer in the nail which is JDubs Max rookie extension.
I dont doubt Presti’s skill in managing payroll and need for the team but this will surely put him to the test and im excited how hell do.
This only scratches the surface for OKC cap situation for 2027-2028. They also have Caruso and Wiggins for almost 30m that season. That gives you roughly around 46m to stay below the assumed 1st apron and to fill out at least 7 or maybe 8 more roster spots with Quality players.
What the “great” aristotle shown was just surface level numbers making it look good but in reality OKC will have some work to do to at least maintain what they currently have.
Thanks, Raz. You’re my model for informational posts.
It will get trickier if they make ALL-NBA/DPOY, which they probably will, but yes, the outlook for OKC is very optimistic.
Peter, sorry, which players are you referring to?
Cheers
Holmgen and Williams. If they make ALL-NBA/DPOY, they’ll get 30% of the cap, not 25%. Cunningham and Mobley qualified and got the 5% bump this year.
Holmger and Williams will have it in their contracts, surely.
@Peter_Cantrope , Hopefully Luke Adams steps in if I’ve got this wrong, but I don’t think that applies here…
I believe you’re referring to the “Derrick Rose Rule” (formally the 5th Year, 30% Max), but that requires the player has qualified with exceptional performance in his first 4 years, under his rookie contract.
@aristotle / @Peter_Cantrope:
As we noted in the story above, it doesn’t seem like there’s Rose Rule language in Holmgren’s deal, since Shams (via the agent) would typically phrase that sort of deal as being worth “up to $288MM” like he did when breaking Banchero’s extension.
That’s definitely not confirmed yet, especially given the unusual figure he DID cite ($250MM), which would exceed 25% in even the most optimistic cap projection. But it certainly seems like if Holmgren did get Rose Rule language, it would cap out around 26%, not 30%.
Luke, thanks.
Is it the case that the Rose Rule applies if and only if the player has met 1 of these 3 criteria in his first 4 years:
1) All-NBA
2) DPOY
3) MVP
OR
Can there be other qualifiers in the player’s rookie scale contract?
The specific performance criteria is a matter of negotiation among those three honors (All-NBA, DPOY, MVP) — for instance, a team could say a player gets 30% of the cap for MVP or DPOY, but 27% for a third-team All-NBA. But yes, those are the only three awards that count for the sake of the Rose Rule.
In terms of WHEN the player achieves those feats, it has to happen either in his fourth season or in BOTH his second and third seasons. A rookie that wins an MVP award technically wouldn’t qualify by the time he signs his rookie scale extension, since he has to meet the performance criteria in either the season before the contract goes into effect or in two of the previous three seasons.
Luke, from what you’ve just described, is it correct to say that exactly one of these 2 cases always applies:
1) the player has received none of the 3 possible awards, in which case the max he can receive is 25% of the cap, no matter what his contract provisions
2) the player has received 1 or more of the 3 awards, in which case the max will be greater than 25%, regardless of any contract provisions
If these are the only 2 cases, then Holmgren must fall in the first, in which case we can say with certainty his max is 25% of the salary cap, and that his contract isn’t germane.
Or am I missing something? Thanks!
@aristotle The crucial point with relation to Holmgren and others in his position (Banchero, Williams, etc.) is that because they’re negotiating deals that begin in 2026, they can agree to provisional Rose Rule language that could give them more than the 25% max IF they meet one of the performance criteria during the coming season.
That’s what Evan Mobley, Cade Cunningham, Franz Wagner, and Scottie Barnes all did last year. None of them had made an All-NBA team or won DPOY/MVP at the time they signed those extensions, but Mobley and Cunningham both did this past season, triggering the Rose Rule raise to 30% when their new contracts went into effect this month.
Holmgren could do the same, but as noted above, there’s no confirmation that he and the Thunder negotiated those terms, so it seems likely it’s just a straight 25% max, regardless of what he achieves in 2025/26.
(As an aside, despite making the All-NBA team this past season, Jalen Williams DOESN’T yet qualify for the 30% max, since he’d need to do it again in 2026 to meet the criteria of “most recent season” or “two of the past three seasons” before the contract takes effect. So if and OKC negotiate Rose Rule language, still no guarantee he ends up above 25%.)
Gotcha, Luke. Thanks. You are the man.
@Luke Adams
Gotcha. I thought that rule is what all rookies who sign max extensions negotiate for, sort of like 120% of the salary range that first round picks get.
But it’s not a given.
@Peter_Cantrope
They need to have Rose rule language in their contract. Chet did not have one
Weird comments. To people who say it’s a mistake. Don’t you understand how this works? If you have a player coming up for a rookie extension, he’s a high pick, he’s shown to be one of the best players in the league already, he won you the freaking trophy, the player gets the max extension.
What do you suppose they should have done? Traded him? Said “you’re not getting the contract, see you next summer when you’re an RFA”? Started squeezing him and trying to make him sign for less? That would only hurt them by devaluing the player, disrupting the group dynamic, causing confusion in the fanbase.
Under this contract, they can always trade him for 2 good players making 15m each, plus another one at 15m on a non-guaranteed deal and waive him to make cap room, and still get draft capital on top.
But they are many years away from thinking about breaking something up. Right now, they should focus on repeating what they’ve just done. They have an excellent chance of doing that.
It’s this simple:
Any top 20 player under 30 years old is worth a rookie max extension. Thank the CBA for that.
A rookie max extension pays 25% of the salary cap.
A veteran supermax pays about 39% of cap
Exactly. This CBA rewards drafting well and developing rookies into top players. Teams that do that get to keep those players for 9 years, the first 4 of those years on a very team-friendly rookie contract, and then on a rookie extension, which is higher, yes, but still lower than what other teams are paying their ageing stars.
Peter, well said. I wish folks would take time to fully understand because it would clear up s0-0-0 much confusion on this board.
I’m so happy for Chet. He deserves this. Congratulations!
240/5 seems a fair deal, for sure a team friendly deal!
Big big mistake. And I think he’s a fantastic player. But they’re gonna have three max guys with a couple high but not max salaries on the side, and that does not work.
It is a great time to be an NBA player. If you can stay in the top 100 players and relatively healthy you will accumulate a billion dollars in earnings to play a sport. The tax penalties are stupid. If every team has the same opportunity to spend the money. Then there ought to be no punishment besides paying the bill. Especially for a team like OKC who is going to get penalized for drafting too well.
Okc will not have any problems navigating this
They probably need a C to step up to replace IHart ( already have 2 candidates )
And will probably only be able to extend either Wallace or Topic
They’ll be able to extend Dort as well
I’m not as high on Okc as a lot of folk are as an absolute powerhouse but the cap is not what’s going to bring this ship down – IF they can get Rose Rules on Willams too that be a big boon .
Crunch, good stuff.
Funny thing…just when I start the thinking OKC’s future may not be that bright after all, something ridiculously favourable comes up again…
Like, how about they have 3 FRP’s next year (2026) and then 3 again in 2027…
And that their draft capital actually improved over the last year! Why? Because most other NBA front offices are undisciplined and irresponsible (see Lakers, Suns, Pelicans, Blazers), consistently exchanging greater long-term value for the short-term.
Presti can just sit back and let the fools take his earlier picks for more valuable long-term capital in later years.