Training camp is still 28 days away from beginning for all teams, which usually determines multiple positional battles for teams ahead of the coming season. Still, rosters are mostly built, and preliminary pecking orders are in place, meaning we can take a stab at identifying true breakout players for 2024/25.
With this piece, we’ll be focusing on players who seem to be poised to go from the fringes of rosters to rotational mainstays. Think of Guerschon Yabusele last year, who went from being out of the league to being one of the NBA’s most coveted role players. Last year in this exercise, we included Max Christie, who jumped his averages up from 4.2 points to 9.6. So while Larry Nance Jr. seems primed for a massive year with the Cavaliers as a role player, he has 546 career games under his belt.
Luka Garza/Josh Minott, Boston Celtics
The Celtics went out of their way to add both Garza and Minott to standard deals early in free agency after the Timberwolves declined options for both players. However, the Wolves opting to not bring them back isn’t an indictment, more of a testament to the win-now depth Minnesota built ahead of them.
Garza hasn’t played many minutes over the course of his four-year NBA career, but he’s certainly produced when given the opportunity. In just 7.8 minutes in his career, he averages 4.9 points and 2.0 rebounds, which comes out to a per-36 average of 22.7 points and 8.9 rebounds. It would be easy to write off that kind of production since per-36 is hardly an indicative statistic of one’s talents, but that sample comes across 124 career games. And in 39 career regular season G League games, he averaged 26.3 points and 9.8 rebounds.
The Celtics lost Luke Kornet in free agency, traded away Kristaps Porzingis and are not considered likely to bring back Al Horford. That leaves Neemias Queta, Chris Boucher and Xavier Tillman as the only players in front of Garza in the frontcourt. It isn’t out of the realm of possibility that Garza emerges as a starter down the line.
Minott is also included here after his training camp last season had coaches raving. While he never ended up in the rotation, it’s still noteworthy that the Celtics added him early in free agency. Minott will battle Jordan Walsh, Baylor Scheierman and rookie Hugo Gonzalez for minutes off the bench at the wing position. In 32 career regular season G League games, he averages 19.2 points, 7.5 rebounds, 1.1 steals and 1.8 blocks.
Nigel Hayes-Davis, Phoenix Suns
If there was an option to select “most likely to be this year’s Yabusele,” Hayes-Davis would have to rank near the top. Hayes-Davis established himself as one of the best international players after not playing in the league since 2017/18. The Suns gave him a standard guaranteed deal after he averaged 15.1 points for Fenerbahce. On a new-look Phoenix team, he’ll get plenty of chances to contribute.
Jaylen Clark, Minnesota Timberwolves
The Timberwolves drafted Clark with the No. 53 pick in the 2023 draft, with the Wolves essentially redshirting him while he recovered from injury in 2023/24. Last year, his first in the league, Clark emerged as a reliable depth option, averaging 4.1 points across 13.1 minutes in 40 games.
With the loss of Nickeil Alexander-Walker to the Hawks in free agency, the Wolves will look to rely on their younger depth to establish themselves this season. While all eyes are on Rob Dillingham and Terrence Shannon Jr. to take steps forward, look for Clark (and perhaps Leonard Miller), to gain more of a foothold in the rotation.
Cam Spencer, Memphis Grizzlies
Every opportunity he received, Spencer impressed for the Grizzlies and their G League affiliate. In just 10.1 minutes last year (25 appearances), Spencer averaged 4.2 points. In eight regular season G League games, Spencer averaged 23.5 points and 3.5 assists while shooting 53.8% from the field and 49.3% from three.
Memphis drafted Spencer last year with the No. 53 overall pick, and he played all of last year on a two-way deal. After standing out in their developmental system, Spencer was rewarded with a standard contract this offseason. Even though the Grizzlies are flush with rotation-caliber players, there could be an opportunity for Spencer to earn some bench minutes after the departure of Desmond Bane from the guard room.
Definitely going to miss Luka. Dude plays with constant energy and heart, and is quite talented offensively. Defense needs a lot of work, but he absolutely deserves my more playing time. I don’t like the Celtics, but I’ll be rooting for him and Josh.
Jaylon Tyson (CLE):
Possibly starting at SF with Max Strus set to miss at least half the season. Cavs prefer De’Andre Hunter as a sixth man (starting lineup has enough scoring), so Tyson has a pathway to 20+ minutes.
James Wiseman (IND)
Myles Turner is a gargantuan void to fill. I think Wiseman qualifies as “Under the Radar” after missing all of last season to an Achilles tear. Most people probably don’t realize he’s still in the league. He could figure as the starting center.
Jay Huff (IND)
Huff could also figure as a starter, as he brings the shooting angle that Turner had, but is more realistically a backup given his limitations in other areas (toughness, rebounding).
There is a rule of thumb about big men. It takes 3 years for them to establish themselves, longer than any other position. He started to show signs last season before he went down. Since the Pacers will have a down year, he will not have the pressure to succeed like at GSW. It will also be his 3rd season.
IDK about rules of thumb but players hit their peak when Skill & IQ meet up with their physical tools.
Wiseman has some skill but his low IQ (on both ends) is what’s held him back thus far. He didn’t have any pressure to succeed in DET, and didn’t exactly cover himself in glory there. He isn’t being asked to be a future star in IND, just a serviceable rotation big.
His physical tools are now a bigger question, as he’s missed two full seasons in five years. Not including the year he missed in College, so three in six.
He’s only 24, but he’s missed a lot of development time. He’s the modern Sam Bowie.
The timing may not be exact. But, it was Pete Newell’s belief that big men don’t begin to establish themselves until a few years in the league. Just look at Jokic. He played 3 years of International/Professional ball before he suited for the Nuggets. Remember, he was drafted at #41.
Wiseman is definitely not Sam Bowie. Sam was injured before he got drafted.
Wiseman was also injured before being drafted (and has dealt with injuries since)…
Both were taken #2, with their respective teams drafting largely based on positional need (Blazers passing on MJ because they had Drexler, Warriors because they had Curry & Klay & desperately needed a 5). LaMelo isn’t Jordan, but he is by far the best player taken 2-11 in the 2020 Draft.
There will never be two players with an exact circumstance. Wiseman is closer to Bowie than any other player of the last 20 years.
Seriously, you are really calling Wiseman’s predraft injuries the same as Bowie’s. Wiseman missed all of 3 games. Bowie missed 2 full seasons. Bowie’s college injuries are what killed his career. Wiseman’s injuries aren’t career threatening.
I was going to that Rick Carlisle is a Pete Newell disciple. He is in good hands.
Wow, really Leonard Miller?
garza wasn’t a cpoy for nothing! hawkeyes!
I would add Moses Moody to this list. He started last season as an end of the bench guy. But, he found something inside himself in the 2nd half. Before his shooting hand injury, he was shooting 48%/41%. If he keeps up the attitude, and is pain free, he could have an amazing year…Maybe he’ll show Kuminga what he could accomplish.
Moses Moody played 74 games, and started 34. He doesn’t really fit the criteria of “under the radar”. He’s someone who might break out, but he isn’t an unknown commodity.
He’s been in the Warriors rotation the last 3 years and makes 12M per year.
Um…You didn’t read what I wrote. He was barely in the rotation the 1st half of the season. The games he started where in the 2nd half. He was a completely different player in the 2nd half. His shooting hand was severely injured. He definitely played better than the 12 million suggests.