NBA Trade Candidate Watch: Top Veteran Targets
With the March 25 trade deadline fast approaching, Hoops Rumors is taking a closer look at players around the NBA who are candidates to be moved this month, breaking them down into several categories based on their age, contracts, on-court value, and other categories. Today, we’ll zero in on the top veteran trade targets on the market.
The January blockbuster trade that saw James Harden, Victor Oladipo, and Caris LeVert change teams is unlikely to be topped in the next six days. No player in Harden’s class are believed to be available, and it’s possible that the best player to be dealt by March 25 will be… well, Oladipo himself, who is back on the block just a couple months after being acquired by Houston.
Bradley Beal, Zach LaVine, and Karl-Anthony Towns have been the subject of some trade speculation, but that appears to be wishful thinking. The Bulls are in the playoff hunt, and Beal and Towns will likely only be moved if they push for it — so far, there’s no indication that they are.
Still, even if no All-NBA type players are on the move in the next few days, there are plenty of intriguing veteran players who could be had. The final installment of our Trade Candidate series today will focus on those players.
Let’s dive in…
Probably off-limits, but you never know:
- Nikola Vucevic, Magic
- Kyle Lowry, Raptors
- Thaddeus Young, Bulls
- Myles Turner, Pacers
- DeMar DeRozan, Spurs
Vucevic has said he’s happy where he is, but he has drawn significant interest from several teams. It would take a huge package to convince the Magic to move their lone All-Star, especially since he’s under contract for two more years after 2020/21.
Lowry’s $30.5MM expiring contract would make salary-matching tricky, and the Raptors won’t simply move him for the best offer — if the veteran point guard wants a change of scenery and Toronto can get something worthwhile in return, he could be on the move. But it seems more likely that he’ll stay put through the deadline and the Raptors will figure out his future in the offseason.
Young would help just about every contender and looked at one point like a prime trade candidate. But the Bulls are playing pretty well under head coach Billy Donovan and seem far more likely to push for the postseason than to essentially throw in the towel by selling off Young and their other veterans.
Turner was discussed in trade talks during the offseason, but he’s been tremendous for the Pacers this season, leading the NBA in blocked shots and anchoring Indiana’s defense. He’s not necessarily untouchable, but the price will be higher now than it was back in November.
As for DeRozan, there have been rumblings that he could be on the trade block if he and the Spurs don’t agree to an extension, but San Antonio typically doesn’t do anything too big during the season, so I’d be surprised if he’s dealt.
Intriguing targets who could realistically be available:
Aaron Gordon, Magic- Evan Fournier, Magic
- Terrence Ross, Magic
- Buddy Hield, Kings
- Harrison Barnes, Kings
- Victor Oladipo, Rockets
- Norman Powell, Raptors
- Larry Nance Jr., Cavaliers
- Cedi Osman, Cavaliers
While Vucevic may be off the table, the Magic have a trio of other key contributors whose price tags should be more reasonable. Fournier is on an expiring contract, so there may be a little more urgency to address his situation than to do anything with Gordon or Ross. But of the three, Gordon is the most valuable and would command the biggest return. If Orlando can get a bidding war going, it could lead to a pretty tempting offer for the forward.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Kings wait until the offseason to increase their efforts to move Hield and/or Barnes, since both players are on long-term deals. But the right offer could get it done by next Thursday.
Houston is in sell mode, making Oladipo available. Still, it’s worth remembering that the Rockets didn’t have to expand the Harden deal to acquire Oladipo — they went out of their way to do so because they like him. So if they’re being low-balled at the deadline in Oladipo negotiations, they may well hang onto him.
Powell and Nance are two of the most interesting names out there and could be difference-makers for a contender. There has been no real indication that the Raptors are shopping Powell, but he can opt out this offseason and is in line for a big raise on the heels of a career year. The Cavaliers, meanwhile, have reportedly passed on offers for Nance that feature multiple late first-round picks, signaling it’ll take a lot to get him. The price for Osman would be more modest.
Their contracts complicate matters:
- Kevin Love, Cavaliers
- Andre Drummond, Cavaliers
- LaMarcus Aldridge, Spurs
If Love, Drummond, and Aldridge were to hit waivers tomorrow, their agents’ phones would be inundated with calls from interested teams, and it wouldn’t take long for them to land with a contender, like Blake Griffin did with Brooklyn after he was bought out by Detroit.
However, the cap hits for Love ($31.3MM), Drummond ($28.75MM), and Aldridge ($24MM) probably outweigh their value at this point in their careers, so it will be a challenge for the Cavaliers and Spurs to extract assets in a trade without taking on some bad money.
Drummond and Aldridge, both on expiring contracts, are away from their respective clubs as they await resolution, so it’s a safe bet that they’ll be either traded or bought out. I think the Spurs probably have a slightly better chance to get a trade done, but both are toss-ups. As for Love, he still has two guaranteed seasons on his deal after 2020/21, so a buyout isn’t a realistic option for him — he’s a safe bet to stay put.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Trade Rumors: Oladipo, Kings, Markkanen, McGee
ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski expects Rockets guard Victor Oladipo to be “prominent” in trade discussions leading up to the March 25 deadline, he said in the latest episode of The Woj Pod. However, it’s not clear what sort of return Houston will want or if any teams will be willing to meet the asking price.
As RealGM relays, Wojnarowski and ESPN colleague Tim Bontemps believe teams will be reluctant to aggressively pursue Oladipo since he hasn’t recaptured his All-Star form in Houston (he’s shooting .399/.316/.772 since joining the Rockets) and will be seeking a huge new multiyear contract as a free agent this offseason.
Here are a few more trade rumors from around the NBA:
- A number of power forwards are among the most intriguing players on the trade market, but teams like the Kings, Magic, and Bulls are sending signals that they won’t necessarily feel compelled to move players like Harrison Barnes, Aaron Gordon, and Thaddeus Young, writes ESPN’s Brian Windhorst (Insider link). According to Windhorst, teams that have called Sacramento have found the club willing to discuss Nemanja Bjelica and Jabari Parker, but more hesitant to talk about Barnes.
- The Bulls appear more likely to consider moving Lauri Markkanen than Young, Windhorst adds in the same story.
- According to Zach Lowe of ESPN, a number of strong playoff teams are interested in Cavaliers center JaVale McGee. However, those clubs are gauging the likelihood of a possible buyout for McGee before committing to giving up an asset for him.
- Bobby Marks of ESPN closes the book on the trade that sent Torrey Craig to the Suns, tweeting that Phoenix sent $110K to the Bucks in the deal. That’s the minimum amount possible this season if a team trades cash.
Scotto’s Latest: Dinwiddie, A. Gordon, A. Holiday, Bjelica
The asking price for Nets point guard Spencer Dinwiddie on the trade market is believed to be a role player who can contribute this season, plus a second-round pick, league sources tell Michael Scotto of HoopsHype. Adrian Wojnarowski and Tim Bontemps suggested during the latest episode of The Woj Pod that Brooklyn would seek a solid wing defender in such a deal, as NetsDaily relays.
Dinwiddie will be a fascinating trade chip to monitor at the trade deadline, since his value is difficult to pin down. His partially torn ACL will likely prevent him from playing again this season and he’s expected to opt out of his contract at season’s end, as Scotto confirms.
Dinwiddie’s Bird rights have some value, especially to teams without projected 2021 cap room, but most of those clubs without cap space are playoff teams that seem unlikely to send Brooklyn win-now assets just to get a leg up on Dinwiddie’s free agency.
Here’s more from Scotto, with six days until the 2021 trade deadline:
- The Magic are thought to be seeking a first-round pick and a good young player in exchange for forward Aaron Gordon, reports Scotto. Gordon, Evan Fournier, and other Orlando players could be available at the deadline, but the team remains reluctant to move Nikola Vucevic, Scotto notes.
- Pacers guard Aaron Holiday would be available for a first-round pick, league sources tell Scotto. Indiana has always thought highly of Holiday, but a first-rounder may be an ambitious ask, given his reduced role and his underwhelming production (including a .377 FG%).
- Several opposing executives believe the Kings will be able to get a second-round pick for Nemanja Bjelica, says Scotto. If Sacramento is willing to take on salary beyond this season, a stronger return could be in play, but the team would prefer not to do so, sources tell HoopsHype.
Clippers Eyeing Lonzo Ball
The Clippers remain in the market for a play-maker at the point guard position and are exploring possible avenues to acquire Pelicans guard Lonzo Ball before the March 25 trade deadline, league sources tell Marc Stein of The New York Times (Twitter link).
Ball, 23, has been the subject of off-and-on trade rumors this season as he nears restricted free agency. He has developed a nice chemistry with Pelicans star Zion Williamson and has the potential to continue improving, but New Orleans will have to decide whether or not it wants to pay big money to retain him a long-term deal this offseason.
While the Pelicans would have the ability to match any offer Ball receives in restricted free agency, they may only be comfortable up to a certain price point. If they’re concerned about a team extending an offer sheet that exceeds that price point, it would make sense to see what they could get in return for Ball now, especially since their 17-24 record has them slipping out of the playoff race.
[RELATED: Knicks said to be “heavily” on Ball’s radar]
Ball is averaging a career-high 14.2 PPG on .425/.385/.767 shooting (all career highs) to go along with 5.6 APG and 4.2 RPG in 38 games (31.7 MPG). He has played more off the ball this season, something his father LaVar Ball griped about in a recent appearance on ESPN Radio in Los Angeles. As Christian Clark of NOLA.com details, the outspoken Ball patriarch expressed a desire to see the Pelicans trade his son.
The Clippers are having another strong season, currently holding a top-four seed in the West with a 26-16 record. However, they’ve long been on the lookout for some extra play-making — Paul George (5.3 APG) and Kawhi Leonard (4.9 APG) currently lead the team in assists. Veteran point guards Terry Rozier, George Hill, and Ricky Rubio have been cited as possible targets for L.A.
If the Clippers make a move for a player earning a mid-level salary or higher, Lou Williams ($8MM) may have to be one of the outgoing pieces. All of the team’s players making more than $5MM are part of the regular rotation and aren’t necessarily expendable, which will make it challenging to swing a deal.
As Stein points out (via Twitter), the Clippers’ lack of draft assets may also complicate their pursuit of Ball and other point guard targets. If the club makes a push for Ball, it may require a three-team construction, Stein adds.
Hoops Rumors Glossary: Poison Pill Provision
The poison pill provision isn’t technically a term that is defined in the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. However, the concept of a “poison pill” has colloquially come to refer to a pair of NBA concepts.
The first of those concepts relates to the Gilbert Arenas Provision, which we’ve explained in a separate glossary entry. When a team uses the Arenas provision to sign a restricted free agent to an offer sheet, that team can include a massive third-year raise that is often referred to as a “poison pill.”
No current NBA contracts fit this bill, but the one Tyler Johnson signed in 2016 did — the Nets included a third-year raise in that four-year offer sheet. After the Heat matched, they had to deal with Johnson’s cap hit jumping from $5.88MM in the second year of his contract to $19.45MM in the third year.
However, the concept we’re focusing on today doesn’t involve Johnson, the Arenas provision, or RFA offer sheets. Instead, this second meaning of the “poison pill” relates to players who recently signed rookie scale extensions, something 10 players did in 2020.
The “poison pill provision” arises if a team extends a player’s rookie scale contract, then trades him before the extension officially takes effect. It’s not a situation that arises often, but it features its own set of rules, since extensions following rookie contracts often create a large gap between a player’s current and future salaries.
For salary-matching purposes, if a player is traded between the time his rookie contract is extended and the start of the following league year (when that extension takes effect), the player’s incoming value for the receiving team is the average of his current-year salary and the annual salary in each year of his extension. His current team, on the other hand, simply treats his current-year salary as the outgoing figure for matching purposes.
Let’s use Kyle Kuzma as an example. Kuzma signed a three-year, $39MM rookie scale extension with the Lakers this year, which locks him up through the 2023/24 season, assuming he picks up his final-year player option. However, he’s only on the books for $3,562,178 in 2018/19.
If the Lakers sought to trade Kuzma this season, the poison pill provision would complicate their efforts. From Los Angeles’ perspective, Kuzma’s current-year cap hit ($3,562,178) would represent his outgoing salary for matching purposes. However, any team acquiring Kuzma would have to view his incoming value as $10,640,545 — that’s the annual average of the four years and $42,562,178 he has left when accounting for both his new and old contracts.
As we explain in our glossary entry on the traded player exception, NBA rules dictate that over-the-cap teams must send and receive approximately the same amount of salary in any trade. So applying the poison pill provision to a player like Kuzma and creating a $7MM+ discrepancy between how two trade partners account for him would make salary-matching much more difficult than usual, especially since so many teams this season are hovering around the luxury-tax and hard-cap thresholds.
Trades involving a player who recently signed a rookie scale extension are already rare. After all, those players are generally young, and a player who signed an extension is promising enough to have warranted a long-term investment. Those aren’t the type of players that teams typically move, so it’s not as if guys like Jayson Tatum, Donovan Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, and De’Aaron Fox would be trade candidates this season anyway.
The poison poll provision further disincentivizes a deal involving one of those recently-extended players by complicating salary-matching rules, making those trades even rarer. In other words, even the players who could theoretically be available just months after signing rookie scale extensions, such as Kuzma or Clippers sharpshooter Luke Kennard, are unlikely to be dealt this season.
Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post.
Earlier versions of this post was published in 2012 and 2018. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Southeast Notes: Heat, Gay, Anthony, Zeller, Wizards
The Heat made their deal for Trevor Ariza with over a week to go until the March 25 trade deadline. One reason for Miami’s willingness to act early was the team’s inability to find common ground with the Spurs or Rockets on trade compensation for Rudy Gay or P.J. Tucker, a source tells Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald.
Gay and Tucker had been previously mentioned as potential Heat targets, and Gay was the preferred choice for some of those within the organization, according to Jackson. However, the Spurs’ asking price was deemed too high for Miami’s liking — the two teams also made no progress in talks for LaMarcus Aldridge, Jackson adds.
Here’s more from around the Southeast:
- Magic rookie Cole Anthony, who has been sidelined since February 9 due to shoulder and rib injuries, isn’t close to returning, head coach Steve Clifford said this week, per Roy Parry of The Orlando Sentinel. “He was on the court yesterday for the first time just doing some light shooting,” Clifford said on Wednesday. “Let’s put it this way: It’s more than days, it’s weeks before –– and I shouldn’t even say –– I don’t know exactly, but it’s not that close is the feedback (from the training staff).”
- After starting Thursday night’s game vs. the Lakers, Hornets center Cody Zeller didn’t play at all in the second half, writes Rick Bonnell of The Charlotte Observer. Zeller’s role is worth watching with the trade deadline around the corner — if Charlotte makes a move, it could involve the center position and Zeller’s $15.4MM expiring contract.
- Fred Katz and John Hollinger of The Athletic teamed up to break down some hypothetical trade deadline deals involving the Wizards, including swaps that would send players such as George Hill, Spencer Dinwiddie, and Wayne Ellington to D.C.
Lakers Notes: Trade Deadline, Center, Caruso
Several key Lakers contributors, including Dennis Schröder, Alex Caruso, and Talen Horton-Tucker are up for new deals this offseason, and Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN said in the latest episode of The Woj Pod that he has the sense the team would like to move some long-term money off its books to create more flexibility to re-sign those players.
“I do think they would like to free up some of that money they owe down the line to put themselves in position to keep the guys they have there,” Wojnarowski said, per RealGM. “I think that’s kind of at the center of some of their talks here around the trade deadline.”
While Woj didn’t specifically name Kyle Kuzma and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope as players the Lakers are discussing in trades, he observed that they’re the non-stars on the roster who have multiyear contracts. Kuzma would be tricky to move this year because he has a contract extension going into effect in 2021/22, so if L.A. wants to move some long-term money, KCP could be the team’s top trade candidate by default.
Here’s more on the Lakers:
- Jovan Buha of The Athletic breaks down the defensive performance of Marc Gasol and Montrezl Harrell, weighing whether the Lakers need to pursue a center upgrade via trade or on the buyout market. Buha contends that the concerns about the club’s interior defense have been overblown and that the return of Anthony Davis could sufficiently address the issue.
- Lakers guard Alex Caruso, who has missed the team’s last two games, has been cleared from the NBA’s concussion protocol and will be available vs. Charlotte on Thursday night, as ESPN’s Dave McMenamin relays (via Twitter).
- In case you missed it, the Lakers are reportedly among the teams to watch if free agent Isaiah Thomas gets another NBA opportunity.
Draft Notes: K. Jones, Springer, Camper, S. Mitchell
Sam Vecenie of The Athletic published his latest 2021 NBA mock draft this week, while Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer posted the initial version of his draft guide, complete with prospect rankings. Like just about every other draft expert, Vecenie and O’Connor have Oklahoma State’s Cade Cunningham atop their boards, with Evan Mobley, Jalen Green, Jalen Suggs, and Jonathan Kuminga filling out the top five, in some order.
Beyond the top five though, there are some interesting choices filling out the lottery in Vecenie’s mock draft and in O’Connor’s rankings. Both analysts are high on the raw potential of Texas big man Kai Jones, with O’Connor placing him eighth and Vecenie putting him at No. 10 — Jones falls outside the lottery on ESPN’s big board.
Meanwhile, Tennessee guard Jaden Springer is the No. 27 player on ESPN’s board, but is considered a potential lottery pick by both Vecenie (No. 12) and O’Connor (No. 14). Vecenie acknowledges that there’s a wide range of opinions on Springer, who has some “real inefficiencies in his game,” but believes the 19-year-old is boosting his stock with a strong finish to the season.
Here’s more on the 2021 NBA draft:
- After testing the draft waters a year ago, Siena swingman Manny Camper has declared for the draft in 2021, confirming his decision on Twitter. Camper was a senior this year, but because NCAA players were granted an extra year of eligibility due to the coronavirus pandemic, he isn’t automatically draft-eligible.
- Boston College senior forward Steffon Mitchell is entering the draft, he announced on Instagram. Mitchell averaged 9.1 PPG and 7.3 RPG in 16 games (32.6 MPG) in 2020/21.
- In case you missed it, potential lottery pick Isaiah Jackson is testing the draft waters, as we detailed earlier today.
Northwest Notes: Millsap, Nuggets, Thunder, Blazers, Wolves
After being sidelined for 10 games by a left knee sprain, Nuggets big man Paul Millsap came off the bench in his first game back, but was reinserted into the starting lineup on Saturday when Monte Morris and Gary Harris were unavailable.
According to Nuggets head coach Michael Malone, Millsap approached him after that Saturday loss and reiterated that he’d be happy to continue coming off the bench or to accept another role to avoid impending the chemistry the new starting group had established (Twitter link via Mike Singer of The Denver Post). Millsap has started both of Denver’s games since then – both wins – but could return to the bench once Morris and Harris return.
Here’s more from around the Northwest:
- The Nuggets will begin allowing fans into Ball Arena as of April 2, the team announced today in a press release. The plan is to limit capacity to 4,050 fans, approximately 22% of the building’s overall capacity.
- The Thunder used a portion of their $19.5MM traded player exception created in the Danilo Gallinari sign-and-trade to absorb Meyers Leonard‘s $9.4MM contract, tweets ESPN’s Bobby Marks. As a result, Oklahoma City created another TPE worth Trevor Ariza‘s salary ($12.8MM), which will be available until the week before next year’s trade deadline.
- Within his latest mailbag, Jason Quick of The Athletic says the Trail Blazers are gaining hope that Zach Collins (ankle surgery) can return by the postseason. Quick also believes LaMarcus Aldridge would be a great fit (and a great reunion story) for Portland if he’s available on the buyout market.
- Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic breaks down the Timberwolves‘ trade tiers, writing that Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards are the untouchables, while Malik Beasley and Jaden McDaniels would only be in play for a star-caliber player.
Pistons Sign Tyler Cook To 10-Day Contract
MARCH 18: The Pistons have officially signed Cook to his 10-day contract, per NBA.com’s transactions log. He’s expected to be available for Friday’s game vs. Houston, tweets James L. Edwards III of The Athletic.
MARCH 15: The Pistons are signing free agent forward Tyler Cook to a 10-day contract, reports Rod Beard of The Detroit News (via Twitter). Cook reached the open market on March 6 when his 10-day deal with Brooklyn expired.
Undrafted out of Iowa in 2019, Cook spent time as a rookie last season on a two-way contract and a pair of 10-day deals with Cleveland before joining Denver for the NBA restart as a substitute player. He only appeared in 13 total NBA games, but played more for the Canton Charge and OKC Blue in the G League, averaging 12.9 PPG and 5.7 RPG in 29 games (21.3 MPG).
Cook returned to the G League for the 2020/21 season and was one of the early standouts at the Walt Disney World bubble, averaging 20.8 PPG, 9.6 RPG, and 4.4 APG in eight games (33.3 MPG) for the Iowa Wolves. That performance earned him a 10-day look from the Nets, but Brooklyn has opted not to re-sign him, clearing the way for his deal with Detroit.
Cook’s 10-day contract, which will pay him $99,020, won’t require the Pistons to make a corresponding roster move — they’ve had an open spot on their 15-man squad since buying out Blake Griffin.
It’s unclear when the Pistons intend to officially sign Cook and start the counter on his 10 days. According to James L. Edwards III of The Athletic (Twitter link), the 23-year-old still has to clear the COVID-19 protocols and is expected to be available for Friday’s game vs. Houston.