2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Golden State Warriors
Hoops Rumors is previewing the 2020 offseason for all 30 NBA teams. We’re looking at the key questions facing each club, as well as the roster decisions they’ll have to make this fall. Today, we’re focusing on the Golden State Warriors.
Salary Cap Outlook
The Warriors won’t have any cap room available in the 2020 offseason. In fact, adding the cap hit for a top-five draft pick to their already-pricey roster will easily put the Dubs in luxury tax territory.
Still, assuming team ownership remains willing to spend big, Golden State has some flexibility to add roster upgrades using the taxpayer mid-level exception (which should be worth at least $5.7MM) and a $17.2MM traded player exception.
Our full salary cap preview for the Warriors can be found right here.
Roster Decisions To Watch
Options:
- None
Non-Guaranteed Contracts:
- Marquese Chriss ($1,824,003)
- Note: Partially guaranteed for $800K; will become fully guaranteed on November 1.
- Damion Lee ($1,762,796)
- Note: Partially guaranteed for $600K.
- Ky Bowman ($1,517,981)
- Mychal Mulder ($1,517,981)
- Juan Toscano-Anderson ($1,517,981)
Two-Way Contracts:
- None
Free Agents:
- None
2020 Draft Assets
First Round:
- No. 1 overall pick (pending lottery results)
The Warriors are tied for the most favorable lottery odds, with a 14.0% chance at the No. 1 overall pick and a 52.1% chance to receive a top-four selection. Because they had the NBA’s worst record, they can’t fall further than No. 5 (47.9%).
Second Round:
- No. 48 overall pick
- No. 51, 52, or 53 overall pick (pending tiebreaker)
The Warriors traded away their own second-round pick (No. 31), but acquired Dallas’ and Utah’s selections. The Jazz pick could end up anywhere from No. 51 to 53 depending on the results of a tiebreaker with Oklahoma City and Houston.
Three Key Offseason Questions
1. What will the Warriors do with their top-five draft pick?
If the Warriors were in a position to draft a potential generational talent such as Zion Williamson with their lottery pick this fall, there would be little doubt that they’d hang onto their first-rounder and simply plug that player into their lineup.
However, with no consensus on who should be the No. 1 pick in 2020 and no surefire superstars in this year’s draft class, it might make more sense for the veteran team to shop its top-five pick and trade it to the highest bidder.
Just one year removed from their fifth consecutive NBA Finals appearance, the Warriors are well positioned to bounce back in a big way in 2020/21, with a healthy Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson back in the mix. The right deal could give Golden State the immediate upgrade necessary to once again enter the season as the championship frontrunner.
Unlike most clubs picking high in the lottery, the Warriors aren’t in desperate need of an infusion of young talent. And with teams around the NBA potentially tightening their purse strings as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, acquiring a high-upside rookie on a cost-controlled four-year contract could hold significant appeal to a potential Warriors trade partner, increasing the Dubs’ leverage in negotiations.
Still, there are compelling reasons for Golden State to considering keeping the pick. For one, the Warriors’ stars are all now in their 30s — going all-in on veterans would mean risking having the franchise’s window of contention close within the next few years. Adding a young building block could help eventually ease the transition from the Curry/Thompson/Draymond Green-era Warriors to the next generation.
It’s also worth considering what exactly the Warriors could get back in a trade involving their lottery pick. When the Lakers landed the No. 4 pick in the 2019 lottery, it was a foregone conclusion that they’d use that pick as part of their offer for Anthony Davis. There are no superstars this fall who are locks to be on the trade block and who have conveyed a desire to play in the Bay Area. A top-five pick could net the Warriors a good return, but the opportunity to land a bona fide star may simply not be there this offseason.
Although I certainly expect the Warriors to explore a variety of trade options involving their lottery pick, it wouldn’t surprise me if the team’s approach to that selection is similar to the one it took with D’Angelo Russell. When Golden State acquired Russell in a sign-and-trade, it did so knowing he’d have enough value to eventually be flipped for an asset – or assets – that better complemented the current roster.
The Warriors could take the same path with their top pick, using it to draft a player while recognizing that that prospect could eventually headline an appealing package if the right veteran star reaches the trade market.
2. What will the Warriors do with their $17MM+ trade exception?
The Warriors’ decision on trading their draft pick is complicated by the fact that they have a $17MM+ traded player exception that will expire if it’s not used by October 24. The exception allows the team to acquire a player (or players) earning up to $17,285,185 without sending out any salary themselves. That ability could be extremely useful in any draft-day trade.
Most trade exceptions expire without being used, but this one – besides being unusually large – is also one of the only viable avenues for the Warriors to make a roster upgrade this fall. They project to be well over the tax line, meaning they’ll have no cap room, no bi-annual exception, and will only have the taxpayer version of the mid-level exception. If they don’t use this TPE, their flexibility to add talent will be limited.
That’s not to say that the Warriors are obligated to use the exception. Adding salary to the roster will increase Golden State’s tax bill exponentially. And while Joe Lacob and company have never been shy about spending big, we’re in uncharted territory now, with no real sense of when fans might be allowed back in the Warriors’ new arena. The revenues from the Chase Center were supposed to help offset the rising cost of the club’s roster, but barring a major nationwide and statewide improvement on the handling of the coronavirus pandemic, the club won’t be selling out its building anytime soon.
The Warriors will want to take advantage of Curry’s and Thompson’s prime years and aren’t about to cut costs. But acquiring a player earning $17MM would likely increase the team’s tax bill by three or four times that amount. Although there are some intriguing potential targets out there, guys like Evan Fournier, Will Barton, J.J. Redick, or Josh Richardson aren’t exactly stars — increasing overall 2020/21 payroll by $50-80MM to land one of them might not be the best use of the organization’s resources.
With that in mind, it’s worth noting that using a $17MM trade exception to acquire a player earning $5MM – instead of $17MM – shouldn’t be viewed as a wasted opportunity. If a lesser-priced player can provide similar production, it’s the prudent move, even if it means not taking advantage of the full exception. As such, if the Warriors use their TPE, they may prioritize finding a bargain veteran or a player on a rookie contract who could be acquired without breaking the bank.
3. What’s the plan for Andrew Wiggins?
The cleanest way for the Warriors to avoid an astronomical tax bill while still making some changes to their roster would be to trade Wiggins. Of the four Warriors players earning more than $22MM in 2020/21, he’s the most expendable, having not been part of their championship teams.
But Wiggins still doesn’t have positive trade value at this point. When he was dealt to Golden State for Russell, there was plenty of talk about how playing on the wing alongside Curry, Thompson, and Green would be an ideal situation for the former No. 1 pick, giving him a chance to rebuild his value as a complementary option rather than a go-to guy. However, we haven’t actually seen whether that forecast will come to fruition, in part because he hasn’t had a chance to play with the team’s three stars yet.
In the limited action he did see for the Warriors, Wiggins didn’t look all that different from the player we saw in Minnesota. He can score, but not especially efficiently. And the team was worse defensively when he was on the court than when he sat.
With three years and $94.7MM left on his contract, Wiggins still has to take significant strides before he can realistically be considered a positive trade asset. That means it probably doesn’t make much sense for Golden State to try to move him this offseason.
If the team legitimately believes that Wiggins will thrive in his new role, it should give him a chance to do so. If it works, Warriors management can decide at that point whether it makes more sense to keep him in that role or to revisit the trade market with a more appealing asset in hand.
Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Raptors’ Adrian Griffin Denies Domestic Abuse Allegations
Raptors assistant coach Adrian Griffin has vehemently denied allegations of domestic abuse made by his former wife Audrey Griffin on social media.
Audrey posted a message on Thursday morning accusing the Raptors assistant of a number of abuses, including choking her, throwing her into a wall, and dragging her out of the house in below-freezing weather. In her post, she claimed she had “receipts for everything.”
Griffin and the Raptors issued statements this afternoon in response to those accusations, as Blake Murphy of The Athletic relays (via Twitter).
“This morning, accusations were made against me on social media by my former wife that I vehemently deny,” Griffin said. “We are involved in a longstanding legal dispute over alimony and child support arrangements. I am disappointed to have to address false accusations in this way, and I apologize for any distraction this has potentially caused for our team at this important time.”
The Raptors indicated that they were “dismayed” by the allegations and immediately spoke to Griffin, who flatly denied them. “We will support the process as he and his former partner settle these matters,” the team said in its statement.
Griffin, who has interviewed for head coaching jobs in the past and was considered a potential Bulls candidate if they moved on from Jim Boylen, assumed temporary head coaching duties for the Raptors on Wednesday night, with Nick Nurse giving him an opportunity to take the reins. After leading the team to a 125-121 win over Philadelphia, Griffin said he “felt like Cinderella,” as Andrew Lopez of ESPN details.
Kings Notes: Divac, Walton, Dumars, Hield, Giles
Despite the Kings‘ disappointing season, there’s still no indication that general manager Vlade Divac or head coach Luke Walton are in any danger of losing their jobs, writes Sam Amick of The Athletic.
As Amick notes, both Divac and Walton have three years remaining on their contracts, so the idea of replacing either of them isn’t particularly appealing from a financial perspective. The Kings have suffered significant losses related to the real estate they control around their arena and have had to make business operations layoffs, sources tell Amick.
Still, the pressure on Divac is increasing, according to Amick, who suggests that advisor Joe Dumars has become a “valued voice” for owner Vivek Ranadive and may have an increased role going forward. Sources tell The Athletic that the Divac/Dumars relationship is good, but Amick says he wouldn’t be surprised to see minor front office changes made this offseason, including perhaps an addition to the current group.
Here’s more on the Kings:
- Within his article linked above, Amick writes that a midseason role change – from starter to sixth man – was “known to displease” Buddy Hield. Asked today after the Kings’ final game if he can be content with that role moving forward, Hield didn’t give a direct answer, per Jason Anderson of The Sacramento Bee (Twitter links).
- Over at the The Sacramento Bee, Anderson takes a look at whether former first-round pick Harry Giles may have played his final game for the Kings today.
- Greg Wissinger, writing for the Sacramento Bee, expresses confusion that the Kings didn’t pivot more strongly to focusing on player development once they were eliminated from the postseason over the weekend, suggesting that they’ve been playing recently with “no clear objective.”
- James Ham of NBC Sports California previews some key offseason deadlines from a Kings perspective, including Nemanja Bjelica‘s October 17 salary guarantee date.
And-Ones: NBA Finals, Coaching Award, Draft, Goudelock
The NBA has established dates for each game of the 2020 Finals, according to Shams Charania of The Athletic (Twitter link). The tentative dates could potentially be moved up if both the Eastern and Western Conference Semifinals end early, but for now the plan is tip off this year’s Finals on Wednesday, September 30, with Game 7 landing on Tuesday, October 13.
As Charania details, there would be one day off between every pair of games except for Games 4 and 5, which would take place on Oct. 6 and Oct. 9, giving teams one extra day of rest.
Here are more odds and ends from around the basketball world:
- After announcing earlier this week that it will name an All-Bubble Team and the Player of the Bubble, the NBA said on Wednesday night that there will also be an award for Coach of the Bubble, tweets Chris Mannix of SI.com. Monty Williams (Suns) and Jacque Vaughn (Nets) are among the top contenders for that honor, which will be announced on Saturday.
- Jonathan Givony, Mike Schmitz, Kevin Pelton, and Bobby Marks of ESPN (Insider link) provide an update on the draft, examining the challenges facing teams evaluating talent and how clubs’ philosophies may be altered as a result of the unusual pre-draft process. According to Givony, due to uncertainty about finances and the G League, some executives say they’ve been seeking out potential second-rounders who would be willing to play overseas rather than signing in the NBA right away.
- David Aldridge and John Hollinger of The Athletic explore the challenges facing the NBA as it plans its 2020/21 season. We’ve previously touched on some of those logistical and coronavirus-related issues here and here.
- Former NBA guard Andrew Goudelock, who appeared in 49 games for the Lakers and Rockets between 2011-16, has signed a new contract with Rytas Vilnius in Lithuania, as Emiliano Carchia of Sportando relays. Goudelock has also spent time with teams in Israel, China, and Italy since last playing in the NBA.
Pelicans Rumors: Gentry, Ingram, Ball, Zion
With the Pelicans‘ 2019/20 season set to come to an end following Thursday’s seeding game against the Magic, the next big question the team must answer revolves around Alvin Gentry‘s future. The veteran head coach has now made the postseason just once in five years since arriving in New Orleans.
While the Pelicans have had to deal with some injuries over the course of those five years, the team had loftier expectations, especially considering Anthony Davis was on the roster for those first four years. Additionally, New Orleans appeared to be in prime position to compete for the final playoff spot in the West this summer, but has played underwhelming basketball during the restart, losing five of its seven games, including two to Sacramento.
Within a discussion about the Pelicans’ offseason, Sam Amick of The Athletic says he’d be “very surprised” if Gentry is back for the 2020/21 season, suggesting there are strong signs that head of basketball operations David Griffin would like to make a change. In Amick’s view, Tyronn Lue and even Mike D’Antoni could be candidates worth keeping an eye on if New Orleans decides to move on from Gentry.
Still, Amick and fellow Athletic reporter David Aldridge caution that finances could play a part in the Pelicans’ decision. Gentry is owed more than $5MM for the 2020/21 season, the final year of his current deal. Team ownership may be reluctant to pay off that contract and pay a new head coach next season, given the financial impact the coronavirus pandemic has had.
Here’s more on Gentry and the Pelicans:
- In an opinion column for NOLA.com, Scott Kushner makes the case for why the Pelicans should move on from Gentry, writing that the team’s “lethargic, uninspired” play during the restart served as “irrefutable evidence” that a new voice is needed.
- Checking in on the Brandon Ingram situation in New Orleans, Shams Charania of The Athletic says that re-signing the young forward remains the plan for the Pelicans, who have remained in touch with agent Jeff Schwartz all season. Ingram is viewed as a likely maximum-salary player, Charania adds.
- David Aldridge of The Athletic has heard from sources at the NBA’s campus in Orlando that they expect “significant roster adjustments” for the Pelicans this offseason. Aldridge also hears that Lonzo Ball “looked like he’d checked out” during the restart.
- Asked today about his offseason plans, Zion Williamson said he intends to work on his game and to “get his body where it needs to be,” tweets Andrew Lopez of ESPN. Williamson didn’t offer additional specifics on where his body needs to be, indicating he needs to talk to the team about that.
Ty Lue Expected To Be Popular Head Coaching Candidate
Tyronn Lue hasn’t been an NBA head coach since early in the 2018/19 season, when he was let go by the Cavaliers, but it sounds as if it may just be a matter of time before he returns to that role with a new team. Multiple league executives tell Chris Mannix of SI.com that they expect Lue to be a leading candidate for head coaching jobs that may open this offseason.
Lue, who is currently the lead assistant on Doc Rivers‘ Clippers staff, has been identified as a probable candidate for the Nets, who expect to formally open a coaching search when their season ends. He’s also viewed as a potential target for the Pelicans if they decide to move on from Alvin Gentry, in part due to his connection to David Griffin.
In addition to mentioning Brooklyn and New Orleans, Mannix identifies the Rockets and Sixers as other teams that could make coaching changes, though he doesn’t explicitly say that either club would have Lue on its wish list.
Of course, given the financial ramifications of the coronavirus pandemic, it’s possible fewer NBA teams than usual will make offseason coaching changes, as they look to avoid paying two coaches at once. In that scenario, Lue’s options figure to be more limited.
Having coached the Cavaliers for two full seasons and parts of two others, Lue compiled a 128-83 (.607) regular season record and a 41-20 (.672) mark in the playoffs, including an NBA title in 2016. Cleveland is already on its third head coach (Larry Drew, John Beilein, J.B. Bickerstaff) since firing Lue following his 0-6 start in ’18/19.
Rockets Expect Westbrook To Miss Start Of Postseason
The Rockets expect Russell Westbrook – who was diagnosed on Wednesday with a strained right quad – to miss at least “the first few games” of their first-round playoff series, reports Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle.
So far, the team has offered few concrete updates on Westbrook, only indicating that it will reevaluate his quad injury before the postseason begins next week. However, a source with knowledge of the Rockets’ thinking told Feigen on Thursday that the All-Star guard will at least miss the start of the playoffs and could be out longer than that.
It’s bad news for the Rockets, who are locked into a first-round matchup against Westbrook’s old team, the Thunder. The series promised a fascinating backcourt duel, with Westbrook, James Harden, and Eric Gordon going up against the Oklahoma City trio of Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Dennis Schröder.
However, it sounds like Houston will have to make do without Westbrook for at least the first couple games of that series, forcing Harden, Gordon, and backup guards Austin Rivers and Ben McLemore to take on increased responsibilities.
Westbrook’s return timeline will depend on how he responds to treatment, tweets ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski. Hopefully, by the time the Rockets/Thunder series gets underway next Monday or Tuesday, we’ll have a better sense of when the former MVP might be able to return to the lineup.
Adam Silver Talks NBA Restart, Finances, ’20/21 Season
The NBA’s restart at Walt Disney World has been “better than what we had envisioned” so far, commissioner Adam Silver tells Chris Mannix of SI.com. Praising those involved in the plan for the sacrifices they’ve made, Silver notes that the players have “taken to it in a more spirited way” than the league anticipated.
As Silver explains in his conversation with Mannix, a number of players who aren’t participating in the restart – either because their teams weren’t invited or because they couldn’t play due to injuries or other issues – have reached out to say that they wish they could be part of the NBA’s summer in Orlando.
Speaking to Mannix, Silver touched on several other topics, including the long road back to resuming the 2019/20 season, NBA players’ advocacy on social justice issues, and the criticism the league has faced from some observers due to its social justice statements.
The conversation is worth checking out in full, but here are a few of the highlights from the NBA commissioner:
On Silver’s biggest regret about the restart plan:
“I’d say my biggest disappointment is that we couldn’t find a sensible way to bring 30 teams down there. We know everything here involves compromises, but I do feel bad there are eight teams that are not part of the experience.”
On how the NBA would have been impacted financially if the season hadn’t resumed:
“In terms of a net basis, it’s not as dramatically different as people might think, because it is so costly to do what we’re doing in Orlando. It’s not a sustainable model, but we also recognize that this virus will end and that at some point we will return to more of a normal business operation with fans in seats. But I recognize that there’s a chance that still this season could come to a halt. The league certainly would have survived had we been forced to shut down, and it will survive if we’re forced to shut down sometime before October.”
On the NBA’s plans for the 2020/21 season:
“We are deep into the planning stages, but only to the extent that we have dozens of permutations as we look into next season. It’s certainly not bubble or bust. Our first and highest priority would be to find a way to have fans in our arenas.
“We’re continuing to look at all the different testing methods. We are current on vaccine developments and antivirals and other protocols around the possibility of bringing people together in arenas. We’re studying what colleges are doing as they look to bring thousands of students back on campus.
“We’re going to try to find the right balance between waiting as long as possible, so we have the best possible information at the time we’re making the decision, and recognizing that, at some point, we have to begin to lock in plans. We would like to find a way to play in front of fans, but it’s just too early to know how realistic this is.”
Injury Updates: Porzingis, Jazz, Warren, Clippers, More
The results of the four seeding games today involving the Grizzlies, Trail Blazers, Spurs, and Suns will determine which teams participate in the play-in tournament for the Western Conference’s final playoff spot this weekend. And no absence from those games looms larger than Giannis Antetokounmpo‘s — as we relayed on Wednesday, the Bucks star has been suspended for the team’s showdown against Memphis on Thursday, which should improve the Grizzlies’ chance of earning a win and a play-in spot.
Antetokounmpo isn’t the only notable player who will be sitting out one of those four games though. According to the NBA’s official injury report, the Mavericks are listing Kristaps Porzingis (left heel contusion) as doubtful for the team’s afternoon contests against the Suns. Meanwhile, the Jazz will be without Mike Conley (right knee soreness) and Rudy Gobert (lower back soreness) against the Spurs this evening.
None of those ailments are expected to compromise those players’ availability for the postseason, but they could help influence which team ends up qualifying for that final playoff spot in the West.
Here are a few more injury updates from around the NBA:
- Pacers forward T.J. Warren sat out Wednesday with what head coach Nate McMillan referred to after the game as plantar fasciitis, the same injury that has sidelined teammate Domantas Sabonis. However, according to J. Michael of The Indianapolis Star (Twitter link), McMillan clarified that Warren has been able to play through the issue throughout the season, and a source tells ESPN’s Tim MacMahon (Twitter link) that it isn’t expected to prevent Warren from being ready for the postseason, so it sounds as if it’s not as severe as Sabonis’ injury.
- Clippers head coach Doc Rivers said on Wednesday that he’s hopeful Patrick Beverley (calf) and Landry Shamet (foot) will be in position to return for the start of the playoffs (Twitter link via Jovan Buha of The Athletic). Beverley has been out for the club’s last four games, while Shamet sat on Wednesday.
- Despite a report indicating that the Nuggets are hoping Gary Harris (hip) and Will Barton (knee) can play on Friday, head coach Michael Malone hasn’t projected much optimism about either player’s availability, writes Mike Singer of The Denver Post.
- Suns center Aron Baynes, who hasn’t played yet during the restart, will be available on Thursday, tweets John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7. However, Baynes likely won’t play much – if at all – based on how hot the team has been without him, Gambadoro notes.
Sixers Assured Of Receiving OKC’s 2020 First-Round Pick
The Thunder‘s last-minute win over the Heat on Wednesday assured that Oklahoma City will send its 2020 first-round pick to the Sixers, as Derek Bodner of The Athletic tweets.
That selection had been top-20 protected, and the Thunder had been hovering around the league’s 10th-best record since even before the season was suspended in March. Currently, Oklahoma City is tied with Houston at 44-27, meaning the pick projects to land at either No. 23 or 24, as our reverse standings show.
If OKC loses its final seeding game on Friday against the Clippers, the pick could end up as high as No. 21. However, it can’t get to No. 20, since the Heat and Pacers (both currently 44-28) will play each other on Friday, guaranteeing that at least one of those teams will finish with a worse record than the Thunder. As such, the top-20 protection won’t apply.
The pick will be an important asset this offseason for the 76ers, since they previously traded their own 2020 first-round pick to the Clippers (who flipped it to Brooklyn). If the Thunder’s first-rounder had landed in the top 20, Philadelphia would have instead received OKC’s 2022 and 2023 second-round picks.
The Sixers originally acquired the Thunder first-rounder in 2016 in exchange for Jerami Grant. Philadelphia sent it to Orlando during the 2017 draft to acquire Anzejs Pasecniks‘s rights, but later acquired it back in its 2019 Markelle Fultz trade with the Magic.