OG Anunoby To Hear Rival Offers In Free Agency?
People around the league are convinced forward Pascal Siakam will re-sign with the Pacers in free agency, according to Jake Fischer of Yahoo Sports, but the situation for Siakam’s former teammate OG Anunoby may not be as “cut and dried.”
Executives left last week’s draft combine believing that Anunoby could end up testing his value on the open market by listening to offers from rival teams in addition to the Knicks, sources tell Fischer.
Fischer acknowledges it could end up being a ploy for negotiating leverage, but the Sixers are among the teams with interest in the 3-and-D standout, who could receive $30-40MM annually on his next deal in free agency. Anunoby holds a $19.9MM player option for 2024/25 that he’s “widely expected to decline,” Fischer writes.
One change in the new CBA that will take effect this summer is that teams are officially permitted to negotiate with their own free agents the first day after the NBA Finals conclude. The latest that could occur would be June 24, a couple days before the draft.
That theoretically gives incumbent teams an advantage, as teams can begin negotiating with outside free agents on June 30 at 5:00 pm CT. Everyone knows negotiations often begin weeks in advance though, which is why so many deals are reported shortly after 5:00 on June 30.
Anunoby retained his Bird rights when he was traded from Toronto to New York at the end of December. That will allow the Knicks to go over the salary cap to offer him a five-year deal up to his maximum salary for ’24/25. The 26-year-old just finished his seventh NBA season, so his max over five years is projected to be worth $245.34M. The most a rival team could offer him would be $181.89MM over four years.
While he is undoubtedly extremely valuable — including the playoffs, the Knicks went 26-6 in games he played and just 13-14 without him — Anunoby has also missed extended time due to injuries throughout his career. He has only averaged 52 regular season games over the past four seasons, including 50 this season after undergoing elbow surgery. A hamstring injury in Game 2 of the Eastern semifinals essentially ended his season, though he attempted to play in Game 7.
NBA Closes Investigation Into Josh Giddey
In January, the Newport Beach Police Department closed its investigation into Thunder guard/forward Josh Giddey. He was not charged with a crime after no corroborating evidence was found.
Sources tell ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski that the NBA has closed its own investigation into Giddey after reaching a similar conclusion (Twitter link).
In November, a series of posts on social media accused Giddey of having an inappropriate relationship with an underage girl who is a student at Newport Harbor High School in Newport Beach. That prompted both the NBA and the Newport Beach Police Department to open investigations into the claims.
However, TMZ reported at the time that the alleged minor and her family were unwilling to cooperate with law enforcement officials. Both investigations are now closed.
In addition to the off-court allegations, Giddey had an up-and-down season on the court as well, culminating in being benched in the Western Conference semifinals against Dallas. The Thunder lost the playoff series in six games.
“There’s been days where you don’t feel like getting out of bed for a number of reasons,” Giddey said during his exit interview, per Joel Lorenzi of The Oklahoman. “As I said, I’m just lucky to have people around me that care, that were there for me. Coming in the gym every day, seeing my teammates, that helps.”
The sixth overall pick of the 2021 draft, Giddey will be eligible for a rookie scale extension this offseason. The 21-year-old made it clear he’d be thrilled to stay with the team long-term and he’s determined to improve his shooting and defense going forward, according to Lorenzi.
“I can’t wait to get back next season and show that I’m a different player,” Giddey said, “and to never let what happened this series happen again.”
Stein’s Latest: Hawks, Paul, Spurs, Lakers, Cavs, Keefe
The Hawks won the draft lottery a couple weeks ago, jumping all the way up from No. 10 in the pre-lottery order to No. 1.
Atlanta is “increasingly expected” to select either Alexandre Sarr or Zaccharie Risacher with the top overall pick, according to veteran NBA reporter Marc Stein (Substack link).
Both French prospects turned 19 years old last month, but they took different professional pathways in 2023/24. Big man Sarr played for the Perth Wildcats of Australia’s National Basketball League, while 3-and-D forward Risacher has been playing for JL Bourg in France’s top basketball league, LNB Élite (previously known as LNB Pro A).
Risacher is No. 1 on ESPN’s best available list, while Sarr is No. 2.
It may not occur before the draft gets underway on June 26, but Stein continues to hear the Hawks are interested in adding a “seasoned personnel executive” to their front office, which is led by GM Landry Fields.
Here’s more from Stein’s latest article:
- Warriors point guard Chris Paul‘s $30MM salary for 2024/25 is non-guaranteed. Sources tell Stein Golden State is currently weighing its options on what to do with Paul. One choice would be pushing back his June 28 early salary guarantee date into July, but that would require Paul’s consent, which isn’t a given. If both sides agree, that would give the Warriors more time to explore trades, Stein adds.
- If Paul hits the open market as a free agent, the Spurs and Lakers “keep coming up as potential suitors” for the future Hall-of-Famer, Stein reports. As Stein writes, Paul is close with Lakers superstar LeBron James and his family lives in Los Angeles, so there are obvious connections to the team and area.
- Could the Lakers‘ slow-moving head coaching search be accelerated by the Cavaliers‘ recent firing of J.B. Bickerstaff? Stein explores that question, writing that L.A. may face some competition for candidates like Kenny Atkinson and James Borrego, as previously reported. Celtics assistant Sam Cassell, one of the “initial leading targets” in L.A.’s search, is another name to watch for the Cavs, according to Stein.
- Wizards interim head coach Brian Keefe is viewed as the frontrunner to land the full-time job in Washington, per Stein. That echoes previous reporting from The Athletic.
2024 NBA Offseason Preview: San Antonio Spurs
In terms of NBA roster construction, the most difficult thing to acquire is a foundational star to build around. When the Spurs won the draft lottery in 2023 and landed the No. 1 overall pick, they found such a player in Victor Wembanyama.
The unanimous choice for Rookie of the Year, Wembanyama finished second in Defensive Player of the Year voting and on Tuesday became the first rookie in league history to be named to the All-Defensive First Team.
There has never been a player as tall and long as Wembanyama (he’s 7’4″ with a 8’0″ wingspan) who comes close to his unique blend of physical attributes and skills. While many seven-footers look stiff and awkward on the court due to their immense size, Wembanyama is agile, fluid and graceful, with excellent body control. He has a rare ability to precisely understand how his body can navigate a given space.
The French phenom handles the ball better than some guards, with advanced and elaborate dribble moves that mimic some of the game’s all-time scorers. He can spin both ways while finishing emphatically with either hand. Wembanyama is a skilled passer who certainly could have — and probably should have — averaged more than 3.9 assists per game. He has very deep shooting range and attempted 5.5 threes per game, one of the highest marks among all big men.
For all of Wembanyama’s offensive talent, he’s much more polished on the defensive end at this point in his career. Even if he gets beat one-on-one, he can recover quickly enough to still block a shot. He has a high basketball IQ, excellent hand-eye coordination and situational awareness. He doesn’t back down from physicality despite having a thin frame, and he fully utilizes his massive wingspan and glove-like hands.
Just how good was the 20-year-old’s rookie campaign? Despite playing just 29.7 minutes per game, Wembanyama averaged more steals (1.2) plus blocks (3.6) than every player in the 21st century except for one: four-time Defensive Player of the Year Ben Wallace. The scariest thing is that he only got better as the season wore on, averaging 23.7 points, 11.9 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 1.5 steals and 4.6 blocks (!) over his last 24 games (32.1 MPG).
Despite Wembanyama’s individual success, the Spurs went just 22-60 in 2023/24, the exact same record they posted in ’22/23. The team’s underlying stats were marginally better (-6.4 net rating vs. a league worst -9.9 a year ago), but San Antonio was still dreadful.
Yes, the club was much better when Wembanyama played, with a defensive rating (111.2) that would have ranked fifth in the league. When Wembanyama was off the court, San Antonio’s had the equivalent of the NBA’s 24th-ranked defense (117.3).
However, the team actually fared slightly worse on offense when he was on the court than off. His .565 true shooting percentage was below league average (.580) and well below average for a big man. He also averaged 3.7 turnovers per game, and turnovers were a significant issue for the Spurs throughout the season. Being the No. 1 option on an inexperienced team with poor floor spacing has its downsides, and Wembanyama’s shot selection wasn’t always ideal either.
Part of that was due to the failed lineup experiments at the beginning of the season, when the Spurs ran Wembanyama at power forward, Zach Collins at center, and Jeremy Sochan at point guard. It definitely is not a coincidence that Wembanyama’s numbers rose across the board when Tre Jones, the team’s only true point guard, became a full-time starter on January 4. The Spurs were 5-28 at that point and were slightly more respectable (17-32) the rest of the way.
The Spurs’ Offseason Plan
While Jones is a solid all-around player, he profiles as more of a top-tier backup than a starter. That’s why the Spurs have been linked to All-Star names like Trae Young and Darius Garland. For what it’s worth, multiple reports have downplayed the team’s potential interest in Young.
Generally speaking, San Antonio needs more players who can create for themselves and others, shoot, and throw entry passes and lobs. If those players can also be at least average defensively, that would be a huge plus.
Aside from Wembanyama and Devin Vassell, who signed a five-year, $135MM rookie scale extension last offseason, I wouldn’t be shocked to see anyone else on the roster moved. I don’t expect that to happen with 2022 lottery pick Sochan, as the team likes his competitiveness and defensive versatility. Same for 2023 second-rounder Sidy Cissoko, who just turned 20 in April. Both players really need to develop their jump shots, however.
I would also be mildly surprised if Jones gets traded. In a vacuum, he isn’t irreplaceable by any means, but the team clearly needs the 24-year-old’s skill set. Jones is another player who isn’t known for his outside shooting ability though — his 33.5% three-point conversion rate last season was a career high, and he averaged just 2.5 attempts per game. Teams dare him and several others on the roster to shoot, which is another reason why Wembanyama attempted so many threes while only converting 32.5% of them.
2022 first-rounders Malaki Branham and Blake Wesley haven’t shown much in their first two seasons to think they’ll be part of the team’s long-term future, but they’re both just 21 years old and on relatively cheap contracts. The Spurs don’t have a roster crunch, so they can be patient and see if the two guards develop further in the offseason.
Cedi Osman is the only true unrestricted free agent on the roster. Assuming the price is right, the Spurs could re-sign him, but it probably won’t be a high priority. Devonte’ Graham seems highly likely to hit the open market as well — his $12.65MM salary is only partially guaranteed for $2.85MM, and I expect the Spurs to waive him, considering he only played 313 total minutes in ’24/25. There’s certainly an argument to be made Graham should have played more this past season, but San Antonio was more focused on experimenting and player development than giving veterans minutes.
If the Spurs accelerate their timeline by trading away some of their future first-rounders for upgrades, Keldon Johnson ($54MM over the next three seasons) and Zach Collins ($34.8MM over the next two) are the team’s most likely trade candidates. They are the only players on the roster who will make between $13-28MM in ’24/25, so their contracts are obvious salary-matching pieces.
A former late first-rounder, Johnson has been a productive scorer and slasher over the past handful of seasons. However, he was moved to the bench last season. The 24-year-old gets left in the dust too often defensively, particularly struggling with quicker players and lateral movement. If the Spurs view him more as a sixth man than a starter, he could certainly be expendable in the right deal.
Collins underwent surgery last month after tearing the labrum in his right shoulder (he’s expected to be ready for next season). The oft-injured former Gonzaga product didn’t mesh well alongside Wembanyama, with his three-point percentage dropping from 37.4% in ’22/23 to 32.0% in ’23/24. He’s a solid enough backup, but the two-year, $35MM extension he signed last October doesn’t exactly look team-friendly.
While the Spurs have plenty of options if they want to make deals, they could also simply keep all of their future first-round picks and take a wait-and-see approach to the offseason. Listening to offers while not proactively shopping for help might make the most sense, given that Collins could be the oldest player on the roster next season and he’s only 26.
San Antonio got lucky in the draft lottery once again, moving up to No. 4 overall after finishing with the NBA’s fifth-worst record. The Spurs also control the No. 8 overall pick after the Raptors slid down two spots — Toronto would have kept the selection if it had landed in the top six (San Antonio acquired the rights to the pick in last year’s Jakob Poeltl trade).
Controlling a pair of early-to-mid lottery picks would be a massive windfall in most years. It remains to be seen if it will have the same effect in 2024, as this year’s draft class is largely viewed as lacking in top-end talent.
That said, the Spurs also don’t need the players they select to be home runs. Having cost-controlled role players would be very helpful too, and there are players who fit that mold in this draft.
Having a pair of lottery picks will surely have rumors swirling about the Spurs potentially trying to move up or down in the draft. That’s just the nature of controlling multiple picks in that range. San Antonio also owns one second-rounder, No. 42 overall.
If they move up or he’s still available at No. 4, French 3-and-D forward Zaccharie Risacher seems like a natural target for the Spurs. If they focus on shooting, Kentucky guards Rob Dillingham and Reed Sheppard, Tennesee swingman Dalton Knecht, and French forward Tidjane Salaun are candidates to monitor. If they gravitate more toward best players available, Nikola Topic (Serbia), Stephon Castle (UConn), Ron Holland and Matas Buzelis (G League Ignite) could be options.
Getting lucky in the lottery also means the Spurs will have less projected cap room in free agency, which really isn’t a big deal for them — it’s a weak class and not many players fit what they’re looking for. If they keep both picks, waive Graham and Charles Bassey (non-guaranteed), and extend qualifying offers to Sandro Mamukelashvili and Dominick Barlow, they’d have have about $14-15MM in cap room, plus the $8MM room exception. Using that financial flexibility to take on an unwanted contract or two in order to add more draft assets is probably a likelier outcome than signing veterans.
Salary Cap Situation
Guaranteed Salary
Devin Vassell ($29,347,826)- Keldon Johnson ($19,000,000)
- Zach Collins ($16,741,200)
- Victor Wembanyama ($12,768,960)
- Tre Jones ($9,104,167)
- Jeremy Sochan ($5,570,040)
- Malaki Branham ($3,217,920)
- Devonte’ Graham ($2,850,000)
- Partial guarantee. Rest of salary noted below.
- Blake Wesley ($2,624,280)
- Sidy Cissoko ($1,891,857)
- Total: $103,116,250
Non-Guaranteed Salary
- Devonte’ Graham ($9,800,000)
- Partial guarantee. Rest of salary noted above. Graham’s salary will become guaranteed if he remains under contract through July 1.
- Julian Champagnie ($3,000,000)
- Champagnie’s salary will become guaranteed if he remains under contract through August 1.
- Champagnie’s salary will become guaranteed if he remains under contract through August 1.
- Charles Bassey ($2,500,000)
- Bassey’s salary will become guaranteed if he remains under contract through August 1.
- Bassey’s salary will become guaranteed if he remains under contract through August 1.
- Jamaree Bouyea (two-way)
- RaiQuan Gray (two-way)
- Total: $15,300,000
Dead/Retained Salary
- None
Player Options
- None
Team Options
- None
Restricted Free Agents
- Sandro Mamukelashvili ($2,726,603 qualifying offer / $2,726,603 cap hold): Bird rights
- Dominick Barlow ($2,293,637 qualifying offer / $2,293,637 cap hold): Early Bird rights
- Total (cap holds): $5,020,240
Two-Way Free Agents
Draft Picks
- No. 4 overall pick ($9,131,760)
- No. 8 overall pick ($6,281,280)
- No. 35 overall pick (no cap hold)
- No. 48 overall pick (no cap hold)
- Total (cap holds): $15,413,040
Extension-Eligible Players
- Devonte’ Graham (veteran)
- Cedi Osman (veteran)
- Extension-eligible until June 30.
Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.
Unrestricted Free Agents
- Cedi Osman ($12,765,800 cap hold): Bird rights
- Total (cap holds): $12,765,800
Cap Exceptions Available
Note: The Spurs project to operate under the cap. If they were to operate over the cap, they’d lose the room exception and would have access to the mid-level exception ($12,859,000) and bi-annual exception ($4,681,000).
- Room exception: $8,006,000
Luke Adams contributed to this post.
Eastern Rumors: Capela, Fizdale, Bulls, Randle, Heat
Veteran Hawks center Clint Capela is expected to be on the trading block this summer, Marc Stein reports at Substack.
As Stein explains, the Swiss big man will be on an expiring $22.3MM contract in 2024/25. Atlanta won the draft lottery and gave Onyeka Okongwu a four-year rookie scale extension last offseason, so Capela could be on move, particularly if the team chooses a big man with the No. 1 overall pick.
Capela, who just turned 30 years old, averaged 11.5 PPG, 10.6 RPG and 1.5 BPG in 73 games last season (25.8 MPG). The 10-year veteran has averaged a double-double for seven straight seasons.
Here’s more from the Eastern Conference:
- According to Stein, before the Bulls hired Wes Unseld Jr. and Dan Craig to be the top assistants under head coach Billy Donovan, they showed interest in David Fizdale. A former head coach, Fizdale was an assistant with the Suns this past season but may be departing after Frank Vogel was fired. Phoenix reportedly offered Fizdale a front office position to stay with the team, but he has yet to accept it.
- Rival teams are monitoring Julius Randle‘s situation with the Knicks, Shams Charania of The Athletic stated on FanDuel TV’s Run It Back (Twitter video link). Randle will be extension-eligible this summer and holds a $34.2MM player option for ’25/26, meaning he could be a free agent next year if he opts out. “How (the Knicks) handle that extension situation, if that is a conversation, what transpires, I think that will be interesting,” Charania said.
- The Heat may have to barter this year if they want to trade their second-round pick (No. 43 overall) or acquire another one, writes Ira Winderman of The South Florida Sun Sentinel. As Winderman details, for the upcoming ’24/25 season, teams that purchase a second-rounder with cash will be hard-capped at the first tax apron, and Miami is keenly aware of that fact. “It definitely factors in,” said Adam Simon, the Heat’s vice president of basketball operations and assistant general manager. “And you have to look at the big picture and what business you’re doing. And, so, that’ll come into play. But doing something that’s going to hard cap you, you definitely have to take that into consideration.”
Nuggets Notes: Game 7, Jokic, Murray, Braun, Offseason
The defending-champion Nuggets were eliminated from the postseason in extraordinary fashion by the Timberwolves in Sunday night’s Game 7, blowing a 20-point third-quarter lead at home, writes Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPN. According to Youngmisuk, it was the largest Game 7 blown lead in the past 25 years.
Perhaps all the more stunning is the fact that Denver is known for having one of the best home court advantages in the league, going 33-8 in the regular season and only dropping one playoff home game during its championship campaign in 2022/23. In the first round, the Nuggets went 3-0 vs. the Lakers at home. Yet in the semifinal, they dropped three of four to Minnesota.
As Bennett Durando of The Denver Post writes, Nikola Jokic (34 points, 19 rebounds, seven assists) put up his typical huge numbers. However, the reigning Finals MVP and three-time MVP noticeably ran out of gas as the game progressed, settling for jumpers in the second half and going 13-of-28 from the floor overall, including 2-of-10 on threes (he made 6-of-7 from the line). The Serbian star rested for a total of just 84 seconds, all of which came in the first half.
Jokic was humble in defeat, praising the Wolves and specifically their roster construction. Minnesota’s front office is led by Tim Connelly, who drafted Jokic to Denver before getting a raise from the Wolves a couple years ago.
“I mean, I think they’re built to beat us,” Jokic said, per Youngmisuk. “Just look at their roster. They have basically two All-Stars (Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns), two probably first-team defensive players (Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels). Mike Conley is the most underrated player in the NBA, probably.
“From the bench, they have a Sixth Man of the Year (Naz Reid). … (They are) one team that they can do literally everything. They can be big, small.”
Here’s more on the Nuggets:
- Jamal Murray, who was instrumental in last year’s Finals run but has been battling a calf strain, scored his 29th point just over a minute into the second half before adding just six the rest of the way. He finished with a game-high 35 points on a very similar line to Jokic (13-of-27, 4-of-12 on threes, 5-of-5 on free throws). Murray viewed the series differently than Jokic, believing the Nuggets were the superior team, but trying to repeat as champions took its toll. “Just mentally and physically, conjuring up the energy to fight like you’re being hunted,” Murray said. “I think that’s the emotion. When you’re the hunter, you have so much more motivation and you grasp on to anything to prove everybody wrong and you have a constant chip on your shoulder. I don’t know. … I feel like we should have won tonight. That’s the tough part. They beat us, but we had so many great opportunities, including myself, so it’s just tough, man.”
- Second-year wing Christian Braun concurred with Murray’s assessment and said he definitely views the Wolves as a rival now after eliminating a shorthanded Minnesota in last year’s playoffs. “It sucks,” Braun said. according to Durando, “because I think we’re the better team. … I don’t like them. I think that we need more of that in the NBA. They’re a really good team. Really well-coached. Really good players. It’s a matchup that you love to play in. You don’t want to play, like, really friendly with a bunch of teams. I think it’s a really good rivalry for the NBA. I would say it is a rivalry. And that’s why this hurts more.”
- While Jokic and Murray took responsibility, they combined to score 69 points, compared to 21 points on 8-of-28 shooting for the rest of the team, notes Youngmisuk. And the starting lineup, which has consistently been one of the best in the league the past two seasons, was minus-60 overall, per Durando.
- ESPN’s Bobby Marks (Insider link), HoopsHype’s Mark Deeks, and cap expert Yossi Gozlan (YouTube link) preview Denver’s offseason and future salary cap situation, respectively. Starting shooting guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, one of the team’s top defenders who shot 41.6% from deep in his two regular seasons with the Nuggets, could be their top free agent — he holds a $15.4MM player option and would likely get a raise on the open market. The Nuggets have one of the league’s more expensive rosters, so re-signing the 31-year-old might not be a lock.
- Murray reiterated his desire to play for Canada in the upcoming Olympics in Paris this summer, per Parker Gabriel of The Denver Post. However, Jokic was noncommittal about the possibility of suiting up for the Serbia. “I don’t know, my friend, we will see,” he said. “I need to think about it.”
- Head coach Michael Malone was clearly frustrated after the series and defended his actions and team, calling it a temporary setback, per Youngmisuk. “This is just a momentary delay,” Malone said. “It’s a failure, it’s not fatal. We’ll be back. The better team won, so I’m taking nothing away from Minnesota … but mentally, emotionally, physically, I think guys are gassed. They’re dead tired. They gave me everything I could ever ask for, and that’s why as much as this hurts, I’ll walk out of this building tonight with my head held very high.”
NBA Announces 2023/24 All-Rookie Teams
The NBA officially unveiled the two All-Rookie teams for the 2023/24 season on Monday (Twitter links). The teams are as follows:
First Team
Chet Holmgren, Thunder- Jaime Jaquez, Heat
- Brandon Miller, Hornets
- Brandin Podziemski, Warriors
- Victor Wembanyama, Spurs
Second Team
- Keyonte George, Jazz
- GG Jackson, Grizzlies
- Dereck Lively, Mavericks
- Amen Thompson, Rockets
- Cason Wallace, Thunder
Unsurprisingly, Wembanyama and Holmgren were unanimous selections to the first team (Twitter link). Last year’s No. 1 overall pick, Wembanyama was also the unanimous choice for Rookie of the Year, with Holmgren receiving all but one second-place vote for that award.
The entire first team mirrored the Rookie of the Year balloting, with Miller, Jaquez and Podziemski coming in third through fifth. Lively received the most points for the second team, followed by Thompson, George, Wallace and Jackson.
Jackson is the only All-Rookie member who wasn’t drafted in the first round; he was selected 45th overall in 2023 and initially signed a two-way contract. He was converted to a standard contract in February.
The current youngest player in the NBA, Jackson didn’t start receiving regular minutes until mid-January. The 19-year-old put up some big numbers down the stretch though, including 31 points and 44 points in the final two games of the season.
Jackson beat out Warriors big man Trayce Jackson-Davis for the final spot on the second team by a single point. Jackson actually received fewer overall votes (38 vs. 42 for Jackson-Davis), but earned the nod by receiving five first-team votes, which were worth two points apiece (second-team votes were worth one point each).
A total of 22 rookies received at least one vote. Aside from Jackson-Davis, the other top finishers who didn’t make the cut were Pistons forward Ausar Thompson (35 points), Trail Blazers guard Scoot Henderson (33), and Wizards wing Bilal Coulibaly (14). Ausar is Amen’s identical twin brother.
All-Rookie was one of the awards that didn’t require players to meet the newly instituted 65-game minimum. Jackson, Lively, Thompson, and Wallace didn’t meet that criteria, but they were still eligible for All-Rookie honors.
2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Portland Trail Blazers
The 2023 offseason was one of the most dramatic in Trail Blazers history. Never able to find optimal complementary pieces around Damian Lillard during his 11 years with the franchise, Portland decided to keep the No. 3 overall pick and draft Scoot Henderson instead of, perhaps, finding immediate help using the selection on the trade market, as the seven-time All-NBA guard had hoped.
Lillard responded by requesting a trade, which is seemingly what general manager Joe Cronin was hoping for, even if he’d never admit that publicly. It’s not like it was a surprising outcome. Having the No. 3 overall pick in what was considered a strong draft is a rare opportunity. Not using it for veteran help was essentially a bet against Lillard’s future and an acknowledgement of the state of the roster at the time.
I’m not saying Cronin was wrong to feel that way. Nor was Lillard wrong for asking out. The two sides were just on drastically different timelines. Lillard is a small, offense-first guard who relies on athleticism to get separation and draw fouls. He turns 34 in July.
Portland already had Anfernee Simons and Shaedon Sharpe, two young scoring guards, on the roster before they chose Henderson, another guard. The writing was on the wall.
2023/24 was an injury-riddled season for the Blazers, who finished just 21-61, tied for the second-worst mark in franchise history. Trade acquisition Robert Williams played only six games before undergoing season-ending knee surgery. Malcolm Brogdon, who was also acquired from Boston in the Jrue Holiday deal, played 39. Sharpe played 32. Simons, 46. Jerami Grant, 54. Deandre Ayton, 55. Henderson, 62.
The Blazers have made a habit of tanking in the second half of the past few seasons, so it’s fair to wonder how many of those injuries were really serious. But the end result was their top rotation players simply didn’t play many games together.
Portland endured four losing streaks of seven-plus games and ended the season on a five-game skid. The team’s -9.0 net rating was identical to that of the last-place Pistons.
Young point guards often struggle as rookies, and Henderson was no exception. Most advanced stats say he was among the worst — if not the worst — rotation regulars in the NBA last season. His .489 True Shooting percentage was particularly dreadful, ranking dead last among all qualifying players.
In addition to their own pick (No. 7 overall), the Blazers control a second lottery selection, No. 14 overall (via Golden State). In a draft that is viewed as being light on top-end talent, the Blazers could go in a number of different directions with those selections. Adding another young guard probably doesn’t make much sense, but anything else is probably on the table.
Despite the abysmal season, there is an interesting mix of young and veteran talent on Portland’s roster. Grant would intrigue a number of contending teams. Same for Brogdon. While he’s a major negative on defense, Simons is a very talented offensive player and could continue to get better. Ayton doesn’t have positive value on his current deal, but he’s still a good player. Henderson disappointed as a rookie, yet plenty of people thought he was the best prospect besides Victor Wembanyama in last year’s draft. Sharpe arguably has the most upside of anyone on the roster and the best chance of being a No. 1 scorer on a great team, and he’s only 20.
The Trail Blazers’ Offseason Plan
As things currently stand, the Trail Blazers project to be over the luxury tax line, which is tentatively set at $171.3MM for ’24/25. They are also facing a minor roster crunch, with 11 players on guaranteed salaries, two lottery picks with guaranteed salary slots, two second-round picks (Nos. 34 and 40) with non-guaranteed slots, the non-guaranteed salaries of Jabari Walker and Toumani Camara, and a team option on Dalano Banton.
Camara is essentially a lock to have his salary guaranteed after a promising rookie campaign, and Walker should feel pretty good about his position too. While Banton had some big games at the end of the season, he also had plenty of clunkers, with an unsustainably high usage rate and very poor overall efficiency. One report said the Blazers are expected to pick up their option on the former second-round pick — I’m not convinced that will happen.
Paying the luxury tax after going 21-61 is not a realistic outcome. That means one of the players making $11MM+ in ’24/25 will likely be traded.
Brogdon is probably the most logical candidate, as he’s on an expiring $22.5MM contract and is also the oldest player on the roster at 31. Moving off that deal would give the Blazers plenty of breathing room below the tax line. It would also remove any concerns about potential extension talks with the ’22/23 Sixth Man of the Year.
However, a report in February stated Portland wants to make a postseason push next season, which is why Grant and Brogdon were not moved before the trade deadline. If that remains the case, maybe Robert Williams ($25.7MM over the next two seasons) or Matisse Thybulle ($22.6MM over the next two seasons, including a player option for ’25/26) will be moved instead.
A healthy Williams would have more trade value than Thybulle, as he’s a better offensive player. But Williams has a long history of knee injuries, having been limited to just 215 regular season games over the course of his six NBA seasons (he has also played 56 playoff contests). The fact that he only played six games last season means his value is likely neutral at best.
Thybulle is what he is at this point — a terrific defender who is a minus on offense. I don’t think the Blazers would get a ton in return for him – possibly a second-rounder or two – but I do think he could net positive assets.
Beginning this summer, teams can use the non-taxpayer mid-level exception, bi-annual exception and room exception to acquire players in trades. Both Williams ($12.4MM) and Thybulle ($11MM) would fit cleanly into the non-taxpayer MLE, which is projected to be worth $12.86MM. Considering this year’s free agent class is pretty underwhelming, the possibility of landing Williams or Thybulle could be appealing to rival teams looking for defensive help.
I seem to be a little higher than consensus on Ayton. He is undoubtedly a frustrating player to watch, because it’s plainly obvious that he has the talent to be more productive than he has been to this point in his career. I don’t think he was worth the max offer sheet Indiana gave him a couple years ago (Phoenix quickly matched it). But when he’s fully engaged, he’s a plus starter who contributes on both ends of the court. In 2021, the Suns were two wins away from their first championship with Ayton as their starting center — that wasn’t a coincidence.
That said, to get the best out of the former No. 1 overall pick, you have to involve him in the offense. That hardly happened at all at the beginning of the season, with Portland’s unstructured offense often leading to ball dominance from its perimeter players. Ignoring your highest-paid player isn’t a great recipe for success.
Ayton has shown throughout his career that his game scales well with additional touches, and that was true after the All-Star break, when he averaged 22.7 points and 12.5 rebounds while shooting .583% from the field (his free throw rate remained alarmingly low). He was also more locked in defensively during that stretch. If the Blazers really want to push for a play-in spot next year, they need Ayton to be a centerpiece.
I don’t think that will happen. While there’s undeniable talent on the roster, too many of the skill sets are redundant. Almost all of their best players look to score first and only Brogdon is a reliable decision-maker. The Blazers ranked last in the league in assists, assist-to-turnover ratio, 3PT% and 2PT% — it’s impossible to have a functional offense when all of those factors coincide.
None of the young guards are great defenders, and the team was also last in the league in defensive rebounding. You can argue some of the team’s issues stemmed from injuries, and that’s fair to a point. But big picture, I think the whole of the roster is less than the sum of its parts.
The Western Conference is extremely competitive. Teams like San Antonio and Memphis, which struggled mightily in ’23/24, should be better next season. That means Portland will have to have good health and considerable progress from Sharpe and Henderson to have any chance at approaching .500 next season. And .500 was five games back of the West’s final play-in spot in ’23/24.
If the Blazers struggle to open ’24/25 and that continues for a few months, Grant and Brogdon will undoubtedly pop up in trade rumors again, regardless of whether they actually get moved.
Salary Cap Situation
Guaranteed Salary
Deandre Ayton ($34,005,126)- Jerami Grant ($29,793,104)
- Anfernee Simons ($25,892,857)
- Malcolm Brogdon ($22,500,000)
- Robert Williams ($12,428,571)
- Matisse Thybulle ($11,025,000)
- Scoot Henderson ($10,259,160)
- Shaedon Sharpe ($6,614,160)
- Kris Murray ($2,990,040)
- Duop Reath ($2,048,780)
- Rayan Rupert ($1,891,857)
- Total: $159,448,655
Non-Guaranteed Salary
- Jabari Walker ($2,019,699)
- Walker’s salary will become guaranteed if he remains under contract through July 20.
- Toumani Camara ($1,891,857)
- Camara’s salary will become guaranteed if he remains under contract through July 20.
- Total: $3,911,556
Dead/Retained Salary
- Eric Bledsoe ($1,300,000)
- Didi Louzada ($268,032)
- Total: $1,568,032
Player Options
- None
Team Options
- Dalano Banton ($2,196,970): Non-Bird rights
- Banton’s salary would be partially guaranteed for $217,533 if his option is exercised.
- Total: $2,196,970
Restricted Free Agents
- None
Two-Way Free Agents
Draft Picks
- No. 7 overall pick ($6,856,440)
- No. 14 overall pick ($4,467,960)
- No. 34 overall pick (no cap hold)
- No. 40 overall pick (no cap hold)
- Total (cap holds): $11,324,400
Extension-Eligible Players
- Deandre Ayton (veteran)
- Malcolm Brogdon (veteran)
- Anfernee Simons (veteran)
- Jabari Walker (veteran)
- Robert Williams (veteran)
Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.
Unrestricted Free Agents
- Moses Brown ($2,093,637 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
- Total (cap holds): $2,093,637
Other Cap Holds
- Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($2,093,637 cap hold)
- Ben McLemore ($2,093,637 cap hold)
- Keljin Blevins ($1,867,722 cap hold)
- T.J. Leaf ($1,867,722 cap hold)
- Total (cap holds): $7,922,718
Note: The cap holds for these players are on the Trail Blazers’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
Cap Exceptions Available
Note: The Trail Blazers project to be over the cap and over the tax line, but below the first apron. In all likelihood, they’ll shed some salary to get out of the tax. If they were to go above the first apron, they’d lose the non-taxpayer mid-level exception and bi-annual exception and would have access to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5,183,000).
- Non-taxpayer mid-level exception: $12,859,000
- Bi-annual exception: $4,681,000
- Trade exception: $8,778,377
- Expires on September 27.
- Trade exception: $862,382
- Expires on October 1.
Note: Unless otherwise indicated, trade exceptions don’t expire before the regular season begins.
Luke Adams contributed to this post.
Cavs Notes: Mitchell, Bickerstaff, Offseason, Gilbert
It flew under the radar, but the Cavaliers‘ 2023/24 season was filled with turmoil for a variety of reasons, according to Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com (subscription required).
“There was a lot,” playoff-tested swingman Max Strus said. “A long year. A very long year.”
In addition to confirming the uncertain nature of head coach J.B. Bickerstaff‘s future with the team and some internal frustration toward Jarrett Allen‘s injury, Fedor is another reporter who has heard “whispers” that the relationship between Bickerstaff and star guard Donovan Mitchell has deteriorated.
According to Fedor’s sources, while Mitchell has repeatedly stated he’s happy in Cleveland, there were also times “he grew frustrated with some teammates’ lack of maturity, focus, playoff-level readiness and a willingness to listen.” Mitchell strongly pushed back on that reporting (Twitter link), writing, “Yeah aight (cap emoji) I’m sick of y’all sometimes!”
Here’s more on the Cavs:
- For his part, Bickerstaff said he “definitely” wants to return as Cleveland’s head coach, Fedor adds. “I consider this season an improvement,” Bickerstaff said. “To win a round in the playoffs isn’t easy. I thought we faced a tough challenge in that first round, obviously, and to be able to go to seven games and win it showed a ton of growth. I think the play of our guys continued to show their growth. You guys will judge what success looks like. I think we accomplished what we were trying to accomplish but coming up short of a goal of obviously winning a championship.”
- Shams Charania, Joe Vardon and Jason Lloyd of The Athletic have more details on what went wrong for Bickerstaff the past couple seasons, with players openly griping about his offense after their first-round embarrassment last year. Players also questioned Bickerstaff’s lackadaisical and unstructured practices and shootarounds. The organization was also confused by Bickerstaff’s comments ahead of Game 2 against Boston, in which he praised the Celtics while simultaneously making it seem like the Cavs didn’t stack up, per The Athletic.
- Mark Deeks of HoopsHype and ESPN’s Bobby Marks (Insider link) preview a critical offseason for Cleveland, which could have several big changes even if the team is able to convince Mitchell to sign an extension. Marks also provided a video with some highlights from his full article (YouTube link). In addition to Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Isaac Okoro and Allen will all be eligible for extensions this summer, Marks observes.
- After the shorthanded Cavaliers were eliminated on Wednesday, owner Dan Gilbert took to Twitter to express pride in the team’s season, Fedor writes for Cleveland.com. “Cleveland, it’s heartbreaking, but I am proud of the fight and the progress of this team,” Gilbert wrote. “Thanks to all Cavs fans and supporters who were there all season for us. The future is bright in The Land!“
Wolves Notes: Conley, Confidence, Maturity, Jokic, Gobert, NAW
Timberwolves point guard Mike Conley was ruled out for Tuesday’s Game 5 with a right soleus strain and is officially questionable for tonight’s Game 6. However, the 36-year-old plans to suit up, Shams Charania of The Athletic reports (via Twitter).
After Game 5, head coach Chris Finch said the team was optimistic Conley could return for Game 6, per ESPN’s Dave McMenamin. “We’re hopeful Mike can go in Game 6,” Finch said. “That was one of the reasons to be cautious with him right here, feeling that he could go [on Thursday].”
Conley’s leadership and steady hand in the backcourt have buoyed Minnesota throughout the team’s 56-win season, writes Vincent Goodwill of Yahoo Sports. The 36-year-old also understands his window of opportunity is shrinking, and the same may be true of the Wolves in the series.
“I’m one of those people, I don’t want to learn through losing,” Conley said. “I don’t want to learn by letting a team win a couple games in a series to make us change some things. Why don’t we, in games, figure this out? We’re good enough to do this. I don’t have time for it, y’all don’t have time for it.”
Conley, who signed a two-year extension during the season, played 76 regular season games in ’23/24 and is the team’s top on-ball decision-maker.
Here’s more on the Wolves:
- Despite dropping three straight games for the first time all season, the Timberwolves remain confident as they look to stave off elimination against Denver in Thursday’s Game 6, according to McMenamin of ESPN. “Adversity has been something we’ve answered all year,” All-Star big man Karl-Anthony Towns said. “It’s something that if I was to go through this with anyone, I would go through it with these guys in this locker room. I have full confidence in these guys, I have full confidence in our locker room, I have confidence in our coaching staff. Everyone has been tremendous all year. It’s now time to put all that experience and that unity we’ve built throughout the whole year, even last year, and put it on the table and play our best basketball so we can give ourselves a chance to bring back Game 7 here.”
- Star guard Anthony Edwards struggled with Denver’s extra defensive pressure in Game 5, but he said he’s looking forward to making up for it tonight in Minnesota, McMenamin adds. “Super excited,” Edwards said. “You get to compete. Get to go home and play with our backs against the wall. It should be fun.” If he’s healthy, Conley’s return should alleviate some double-team pressure from Edwards.
- Despite their public proclamations of confidence, the Wolves haven’t dealt with adversity well the past few games, particularly from an emotional maturity standpoint, writes Chris Hine of The Star Tribune (subscriber link). Several players have been guilty of immature moments, which has been an issue for this group the past couple seasons, Hine adds. “I mean, we got to keep our head. I think that’s the story for us,” Rudy Gobert said. “… We have to be mentally tough, individually and collectively, to be able to keep playing our game and not let anything that happened in the game affect the way we play.”
- Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic details how three-time MVP Nikola Jokic, who is also the reigning Finals MVP for the defending-champion Nuggets, was able to eviscerate four-time Defensive Player of the Year Gobert and Minnesota’s top-ranked defense in Game 5. The Serbian superstar was particularly lethal in the third period, recording 16 points on just seven shot attempts and recording four assists, frequently while intentionally hunting Gobert. John Hollinger of The Athletic contends that Jokic’s remarkable performance — 40 points on 15-of-22 shooting, 13 assists, seven rebounds, two steals and a block with zero turnovers — isn’t being discussed enough.
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker has become an unlikely X-factor for the Wolves, writes Andrew Lopez of ESPN. The former first-round pick was traded three times in quick succession but has turned into a defensive stopper and a leader for Minnesota, Lopez notes.
- Jim Souhan of The Star Tribune argues that if the Wolves are eliminated by the Nuggets, they shouldn’t blow up the big man pairing of Towns and Gobert. Souhan also says the team should replace Kyle Anderson with another three-point shooter to improve the offense, which has been the primary issue over the past three games.