Free Agent Stock Watch: Pacific Division
For the rest of the regular season and postseason, Hoops Rumors is taking a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents during the 2023 offseason. We consider whether their stock is rising or falling due to their performance and other factors. Today, we’re focusing on a handful of Pacific players.
Austin Reaves, G/F, Lakers
- 2022/23: $1.56MM
- 2023/24: RFA
- Stock: Up
After going undrafted out of Oklahoma in 2021, Reaves initially caught on with the Lakers on a two-way deal, but received a promotion to a standard contract before his rookie season started. He was one of the bright spots in an otherwise disappointing season in Los Angeles, averaging 7.3 PPG, 3.2 RPG and 1.8 APG on .459/.317/.839 shooting (.600 true shooting percentage) in 61 games (23.2 MPG).
He has been even better in year two – you could easily make the case that he’s been the Lakers’ third-best player in 2022/23. Through 52 games (27.6 MPG), he’s averaging 11.5 PPG, 2.9 RPG and 2.8 APG on an elite .511/.385/.860 shooting line (.667 TS%).
The 24-year-old has a really nice pump fake-and-drive game, which he uses to throw defenders off balance and draw fouls – he’s averaging 3.4 free throw attempts per night, which is quite high considering his usage rate is only 14.7%. Reaves has a feathery soft touch when throwing lobs, has good chemistry with both LeBron James and Anthony Davis, and has drastically improved defensively in his second season.
Reaves will be a restricted free agent in the offseason. The Lakers were only able to give him a two-year rookie contract after using most of their taxpayer mid-level exception on Kendrick Nunn a couple years ago, so they will hold his Early Bird rights, with a maximum offer of $50.77MM over four years.
Could he get a higher offer than that in free agency? Quite possibly. Rival suitors who want to pry him away would be subject to the Arenas provision, which limits the amount they can offer in years one and two but allows them to include big bump in salary in years three and four. Unless it’s a crazy overpay, I would expect the Lakers to match.
Lonnie Walker IV, G/F, Lakers
- 2022/23: $6.48MM
- 2023/24: UFA
- Stock: Down
Walker opened the season as a starter in his first year in Los Angeles, averaging 14.7 PPG, 2.3 RPG and 1.4 APG on .455/.384/.875 shooting (.578 TS%) in 32 games (29.8 MPG). Left knee tendinitis sidelined him for 14 consecutive games from late December to late January.
Walker has not started a game since he returned and has averaged just 15.5 MPG in 19 games, recording 8.2 PPG and 1.5 RPG on .417/.292/.867 shooting (.534 TS%). He has received a couple healthy scratches in that span.
Still just 24 years old, Walker is an explosive athlete but he’s just an OK shooter and doesn’t provide much in terms of rebounding, passing or defense. When he’s been on the court, he has a minus-7.2 net rating, the worst among the team’s rotation regulars. When he’s off, the Lakers are plus-3.3.
I’d be pretty surprised if he receives a starting salary at the taxpayer mid-level exception again next season.
Donte DiVincenzo, G, Warriors
- 2022/23: $4.5MM
- 2023/24: $4.73MM player option
- Stock: Up
I was very surprised at how relatively little money DiVincenzo received in his first free agency foray last summer. I know he was coming off a down season in ’21/22 following left ankle surgery and had particularly struggled with his shot – he posted a .351/.339/.843 shooting line in 42 combined games (24.0 MPG) with Milwaukee and Sacramento (.510 TS%).
Still, he started to play better as the year went on, and he was still solid in other areas (4.0 RPG, 2.8 APG, 1.1 SPG). The Kings initially gave him a qualifying offer and then pulled it, with the former No. 17 overall pick receiving part of the taxpayer mid-level from Golden State – he’s actually making less this season than he did in the final year of his rookie contract.
The 26-year-old has certainly earned a raise. He has been invaluable to the Warriors, averaging 9.3 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 3.4 APG and 1.3 SPG in 60 games (25 starts, 26.6 MPG).
On top of being a strong defensive player, DiVincenzo has a high basketball IQ, hustles, and is shooting a career-high 40.4% from three-point range to go along with a rock solid 58.8 TS%. The Warriors only have his Non-Bird rights, so it will be very difficult to bring him back unless he really loves playing for them and is willing to accept a team-friendly deal.
Alex Len, C, Kings
- 2022/23: $3.92MM
- 2023/24: UFA
- Stock: Down
Len signed a two-year, $7.65MM contract with the Kings as a free agent in 2021. He didn’t play all that well last season, averaging 6.0 PPG and 4.1 RPG while shooting 53.4% from the floor and 65.1% from the line in 39 games (15.9 MPG).
He has barely played at all in ’22/23, appearing in 17 games for a total of 53 minutes. He is the definition of being buried on the depth chart.
It’s hard to see the former No. 5 overall pick getting anything more than the veteran’s minimum as a free agent this summer, assuming he finds a team.
Josh Okogie, G/F, Suns
- 2022/23: $1.84MM
- 2023/24: UFA
- Stock: Up
Okogie spent his first four seasons with Minnesota, the team that drafted him 20th overall in 2018. They let him walk after his rookie deal expired, and the 24-year-old was only able to find a veteran’s minimum deal with Phoenix.
The primary reason for that modest deal was Okogie’s limited offensive production. He averaged 6.4 PPG, 2.9 RPG and 1.0 SPG on .403/.275/.758 shooting (.521 TS%) in 244 games (20.6 MPG) with the Wolves.
His stats this season in Phoenix – 7.2 PPG, 3.4 RPG and 0.8 SPG on .399/.329/.728 shooting (53.5 TS%) in 60 games (17.6 MPG) – aren’t all that different. So why is his stock up?
Since the start of the new year, Okogie is averaging 10.4 PPG, 3.8 RPG and 1.0 SPG on .398/.369/.725 shooting (.547 TS%) in 28 games (24.1 MPG). He has been even better over the past 14 contests, of which he’s started 13 straight (32.4 MPG), averaging 14.5 PPG, 4.4 RPG and 1.6 SPG on .423/.378/.780 shooting (.580 TS%).
Okogie is a ferocious offensive rebounder and pound-for-pound one of the best athletes in the NBA, which enables him to switch across multiple positions. He is an outstanding defender.
The Nigerian swingman brings a relentless energy and physicality every time he steps on the court, which complements a team that relies heavily on jump shots. I don’t have a good feel for how much he might get on his next contract, but he’s certainly trending in a positive direction.
Bogdan Bogdanovic Signs Four-Year Extension With Hawks
7:00pm: Bogdanovic’s extension is official, the Hawks confirmed in a press release.
2:06pm: Bogdan Bogdanovic has agreed to a four-year, $68MM extension with the Hawks, sources tell ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski (Twitter link).
As ESPN’s Bobby Marks tweets, Bogdanovic had an $18MM player option for 2023/24 — the first year of his extension will replace that option and cannot be less than that amount. The Hawks are projected to be a taxpayer next season, but owner Tony Ressler has never paid the luxury tax, Marks adds.
Bogdanovic was originally selected No. 27 overall in 2014, but continued to play overseas for a few seasons until his NBA rights were acquired by the Kings. The Serbian swingman spent his first three seasons with Sacramento before signing a four-year, $72MM deal with Atlanta as a restricted free agent in 2020 — the Kings elected not to match.
The 30-year-old missed the first 22 games of 2022/23 after offseason knee surgery, but has been his normal productive self since he returned to action on December 2, averaging 14.1 PPG, 3.2 RPG and 2.9 APG on .437/.401/.806 shooting in 43 games (28.5 MPG). Those numbers are very similar to his career stats of 14.2 PPG, 3.4 RPG and 3.3 APG on .439/.386/.820 shooting in 359 games (28.6 MPG).
Numerous teams, including Cleveland, reportedly inquired on Bogdanovic’s availability ahead of last month’s trade deadline. However, the Hawks were reluctant to part with the veteran guard/forward, who provides a valued combination of outside shooting and complementary play-making.
One report earlier this month indicated that Bogdanovic was expected to decline his option for next season and enter free agency. Instead, he’ll sign a long-term extension with the Hawks, who have made the playoffs in each of the past two seasons and are currently 34-35, the No. 8 seed in the East.
It’s interesting that Bogdanovic’s new contract comes in at an average annual value of $17MM versus his current deal’s $18MM, as the salary cap is expected to continue to rise in the coming years. Still, it’s a significant commitment given his injury history, and obviously he was interested in remaining with Atlanta despite a tumultuous season that saw the team switch head coaches.
As Marks notes (via Twitter), Bogdanovic was permitted to extend off his ’23/24 salary until the start of next season.
Lonzo Ball To Undergo Knee Surgery, Could Miss All Of 2023/24
5:22pm: In a press release, the Bulls have added further details on what Ball’s procedure will entail, revealing that the guard will receive a cartilage transplant in his left knee.
“My main focus has been on returning to the court getting to a place where I can rejoin my teammates,” Ball was quoted as saying in the team statement. “This has been a frustrating process, but I’m confident these next steps are the best path forward.”
3:29pm: Bulls guard Lonzo Ball will undergo left knee surgery, his third in the past 14 months. The surgery is expected to cause him to miss “most, if not all,” of next season, sources tell Shams Charania of The Athletic and Stadium (Twitter link).
There have been concerns about Ball’s ability to resume playing, but there is optimism that another surgery could help him revive his career, sources tell ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski (via Twitter). Charania reported a similar sentiment.
The Bulls’ PR department confirmed the news that Ball will have a third left knee surgery, as K.C. Johnson of NBC Sports Chicago tweets. Johnson hears from a source that a return timeline won’t be known until the surgery has been performed, and it could be “nebulous.”
Wojnarowski reported last week that a third left knee surgery was being considered. Ball’s initial injury was a torn meniscus on January 14, 2022. He was originally projected to miss just a few weeks following his first knee surgery that month, but he experienced multiple complications which caused him to miss the remainder of last season.
Ball underwent an arthroscopic debridement procedure last September to clear up lingering issues with his knee. He has made incremental progress since then, but he still can’t run, cut or jump without feeling pain in the knee.
The 25-year-old did not play at all in 2022/23 and was officially ruled out for the remainder of the season last month.
It has been a brutal process for both Ball and the Bulls, who were playing terrific basketball before their starting point guard went down last season. At the time of Ball’s injury last January, Chicago had a 27-13 record. They finished last season 19-23 without Ball and have gone 31-37 this season, currently holding the No. 11 seed in the East.
Ball came to Chicago in a sign-and-trade deal with New Orleans in the summer of 2021. He played strong defense and was a dynamic open-court play-maker during his 35 games (34.6 MPG) with the Bulls last season, averaging 13.0 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 5.1 APG, 1.8 SPG and 0.9 BPG on .423/.423/.750 shooting.
Ball still has two years left on his contract with the Bulls beyond this season. He’s owed a guaranteed $20.5MM salary next season, with a $21.4MM player option for 2024/25.
Pacific Notes: Wiggins, Warriors, Clippers, Lakers
Warriors forward Andrew Wiggins has now missed 13 consecutive games due to undisclosed personal reasons, leading to speculation about why he’s been absent and when he might return. As Marcus Thompson II of The Athletic writes, Wiggins’ teammates know why he’s been gone, but instead of feeling angry or resentful, they’ve expressed “patience and understanding, a little disappointment but a lot of concern.”
“What he’s dealing with,” one player said, “is some real (expletive).”
Wiggins’ privacy deserves to be respected, according to Thompson, and the fact that an organization that has had some very public leaks over the past year-plus — including Wiggins’ vaccine hesitancy last season and Draymond Green punching Jordan Poole during training camp — has kept the matter in-house “says a lot.”
With the team in the midst of its most crucial stretch of the season, and so many major decisions hanging over the franchise, Wiggins being gone is even more amplified. But that doesn’t mean outsiders are entitled to know what’s going on, says Thompson.
“If we’re fine with it,” one player said, “and the people who pay him understand, then so should everyone else.”
Here’s more from the Pacific:
- On the bright side for the Warriors, second-year forward Jonathan Kuminga was able to play on Wednesday night after missing the past three games with a sprained ankle, tweets Kendra Andrews of ESPN. Unfortunately, longtime veteran Andre Iguodala broke his left wrist and will undergo surgery next week. Head coach Steve Kerr spoke about losing Iguodala last night, per Mark Medina of NBA.com (Twitter link). “It’s a huge loss. …We’ll see what it means, roster wise. We’ll see how things play out, whether we use the last roster spot on one of our two-way guys or something else comes up,” Kerr said as part of a larger quote.
- Law Murray of The Athletic tackles a number of topics in a mailbag column, answering questions about Eric Gordon‘s importance to the Clippers, small-ball lineups, and possible favorable postseason matchups, among others. According to Murray, prior to Wednesday’s victory over Golden State, Gordon had the highest plus-minus on the team in fourth quarters since he was acquired at the trade deadline (plus-46 in 84 minutes).
- The Lakers have an open roster spot and a couple of frontcourt players injured in LeBron James and Mohamed Bamba, plus Anthony Davis has been rested on back-to-backs (only one more back-to-back remains on the schedule). Prior to Wednesday’s loss to Houston, in which Davis was out, Kyle Goon of The Southern California News Group asked head coach Darvin Ham if the Lakers had any plans to add another big man with their roster opening. “We feel like we have a good vibe, a good rhythm with the guys that are out there. We’re standing pat for now,” Ham said as part of larger quote. “But the process of trying to improve our roster never changes. We’re constantly looking.”
Draymond Green Receives 16th Technical, Faces Suspension
Warriors forward/center Draymond Green received a technical foul on Wednesday night against the Clippers, tweets Andrew Greif of The Los Angeles Times.
As Kendra Andrews of ESPN notes (via Twitter), it was Green’s 16th technical foul, so he will be suspended for Friday’s game versus Atlanta unless it’s rescinded by the NBA.
According to Greif (Twitter link), shortly after Green’s technical he was involved in a scuffle with Clippers forward Marcus Morris. Upon an official review of the incident, Morris received a Flagrant 2 foul and was ejected from the game.
Last week, Warriors head coach Steve Kerr said he hadn’t spoken to Green about being on the technical threshold, per ESPN’s Tim MacMahon (Twitter link).
“I’ve never said one word to Draymond, and he’s never gone over the limit,” Kerr said. “He always comes right up to the edge and then he stops. He knows how valuable he is, I don’t have to say anything to him. He knows that he can’t get that next one; we need him.”
Wednesday’s matchup between the Warriors and Clippers — and Green’s imminent suspension — could have a huge impact on the Western Conference playoff race. The two teams have an identical 36-33 record, and both could easily go as high as the No. 4 seed or even drop out of the play-in tournament entirely depending on how the rest of the season plays out.
A four-time All-Star and seven-time All-Defensive team member, Green is averaging 8.3 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 6.8 APG and 1.0 SPG on .525/.324/.705 shooting through 61 games (31.4 MPG) this season.
Ja Morant: “I Take Full Responsibility…I Made A Bad Mistake”
In an interview with ESPN’s Jalen Rose (partial video link), Grizzlies guard Ja Morant expressed contrition for flashing a gun at a Denver-area strip club, which led to him being suspended for eight games without pay. When asked who the gun belonged to, Morant simply replied “the gun wasn’t mine.”
“It’s not who I am,” Morant said, per ESPN’s Tim MacMahon. “I don’t condone it or any type of violence, but I take full responsibility from my actions. I made a bad mistake. I can see the image that I painted over myself with my recent mistakes. But in the future, I’m going to show everybody who Ja really is, what I’m about and change this narrative that everybody got.”
Regarding the other troubling off-court incidents that he’s reportedly been involved in over the past several months, Morant discussed them in vague terms.
“The majority of the things that’s happened in the past, obviously, I kind of put myself into by even being there,” Morant said. “But all the incidents you’ve seen recently, most of them is a lie. I can’t speak too much on those situations because all of ’em are sealed. I really can’t wait to be able to finally tell the truth. But what I can say is, like I said before, none of those are my character. I’m a big family guy. I always care for my family. So it was just me checking on my family’s safety. Once my family is safe, I left the scene.”
Morant acknowledged that he and his inner circle have made some “bad decisions” recently, and says his time away — which included entering a counseling program — helped him reflect on those mistakes, according to MacMahon.
“Honestly, I feel like we put ourselves in that situation with our past mistakes, and now it’s only right that we focus in and lock in on being smarter and more responsible, holding each other accountable for everything,” Morant said. “I feel like in the past we didn’t know what was at stake. And now finally me having that time to realize everything, have that time alone, I realize that now.
“I realize what I have to lose, and for us as a group, what we have to lose. It’s pretty much just that being more responsible, more smarter and staying away from all the bad decisions.”
As MacMahon writes, the fourth-year guard says he’s in a better mental space now and has learned how to “manage stress in a positive way.” Morant technically could play in Monday’s game, which is when the retroactive suspension will lift, but he will require a short ramp-up period to get back in shape before he returns to action.
“I also put my team in a tough position with me not being able to be out there on the floor for decisions I’ve made,” Morant said. “I regret all that. I can’t wait to be back out there on the floor now, knowing what my punishment is. I accept that, and I feel like I deserve that punishment for my mistakes and what I did. But when I get back out there, I’m going to be ready to go and ready to push for a ring.”
Atlantic Notes: McBride, Noel, Pritchard, R. Williams
Miles McBride has been reinserted into the Knicks‘ rotation over the past six games with Jalen Brunson sidelined due to a foot injury. The second-year guard has been making an impact on both ends of the court as of late, writes Peter Botte of The New York Post.
During Sunday’s road victory over the Lakers, McBride recorded eight points (on 3-of-5 shooting) and three steals in 17 minutes, finishing plus-15 in the four-point win.
“It’s huge. … But, honestly, if I didn’t score a point and we win, I’d still be happy. Just being able to impact the game however I can always is the number one thing,” McBride said. “I think the second unit knows that when we get in, our job is just look at the score, understand what we have to do as a unit and move the needle. And I think we came in and did that.”
The 22-year-old followed that strong performance with a career-high 18 points (on 6-of-8 shooting), three assists, two blocks and one steal in 25 minutes in Tuesday’s victory at Portland, Botte adds in another story. It remains to be seen if McBride will get minutes once Brunson returns, but he’s certainly building a strong case for himself.
Here’s more from the Atlantic:
- Veteran center Nerlens Noel averaged 14.3 minutes in his three games with the Brooklyn, but a source tells Brian Lewis of The New York Post that the Nets will not bring him back for a second 10-day contract (Twitter link). Noel’s initial deal expires on Wednesday, Lewis notes. Head coach Jacque Vaughn previously suggested that he expected Noel to stick around.
- Payton Pritchard has switched agents and will now be represented by CAA Sports, the agency announced on Instagram. “At the end of the day, it’s a business decision,” Pritchard told Souichi Terada of MassLive.com. “I think when you’re going into making choices on your future and your business, you want somebody that you believe is going to represent you in the best way and really help you. I’m not dissing my previous agent or anything like that. At the end of the day, it’s a nerve-wrecking time so you want to go with somebody that you really believe.” The third-year Celtics guard, who is currently sidelined with a heel injury, will be eligible for a rookie scale extension in the offseason. Pritchard previously expressed disappointment that he wasn’t traded ahead of last month’s deadline, as he’s looking for more playing time.
- Celtics big man Robert Williams could return to action “within the next week or so,” head coach Joe Mazzulla said prior to Wednesday’s matchup with Minnesota (Twitter video link via NBC Sports Boston). Williams has been dealing with a left hamstring strain, but has responded well to treatment and said he was “feeling good” over the weekend.
Central Notes: Mitchell, Cavs, Osman, Ingles, Caruso, Ivey
Donovan Mitchell says the Cavaliers believe they can make a deep playoff run this season, as he tells Chris Mannix of SI.com.
“You got to get there and see it,” Mitchell said. “We’ve put the work in. It’s tough going from the hunter last year to the hunted. But you see the progression. That tells you the mindset is there. That tells you this team believes.”
Mannix notes that there are signs Cleveland should be viewed as a contender — the team is first in net rating, second in defense, and Mitchell is having a career year and is surrounded by talented young players. However, only Mitchell and Jarrett Allen have postseason experience among the starters, and inexperienced teams rarely advance far in an initial playoff run.
Here’s more from the Central:
- Cavaliers forward Cedi Osman has been in and out of the rotation in recent weeks, but he provided a major spark on Tuesday with Mitchell out, finishing with 24 points and six three-pointers in the victory over Charlotte. He admits the inconsistent playing time has been a challenge, according to Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com (subscriber link). “It’s tough. It’s not easy,” Osman said. “I feel like when you don’t play and then you do play, sometimes you’re trying to do more than you would normally do because you’re trying to stay in the game, you’re trying to show you deserve to be out there and that’s what is best for the team. I’ve learned how to deal with that throughout the season. I would say it’s going better for me now.”
- Joe Ingles signed with the Bucks for the taxpayer mid-level exception last offseason, which was a risk by Milwaukee considering he was coming off a torn ACL suffered in February 2022. The veteran forward showed his worth at the end of Tuesday’s victory over Phoenix, with point guard Jrue Holiday calling on Ingles to handle the play-making duties. As Eric Nehm of The Athletic writes, the Bucks went on a 17-4 run once Ingles started running the show. “He just gives us a presence in the locker room, practices,” Budenholzer said of Ingles. “As a coach, you have to figure out how to best put him in his spots and the spacing around it and the players, they gotta keep developing that chemistry, so it’s still growing. I wish you could just snap your fingers and have it immediately, but that’s just not how basketball works, but he’s been invaluable to us, especially recently.”
- Bulls head coach Billy Donovan says Alex Caruso has been ruled out of Wednesday’s game against Sacramento, per K.C. Johnson of NBC Sports Chicago (Twitter links). The defensive stalwart had previously been listed as questionable with an illness. The Bulls are competing for a spot in the play-in tournament, so Caruso will certainly be missed versus the Kings.
- Pistons guard Jaden Ivey, who entered the NBA’s health and safety protocols last Friday, is listed as probable for Thursday’s matchup with Denver, tweets Omari Sankofa II of The Detroit Free Press. The No. 5 overall pick of last June’s draft, Ivey is averaging 15.4 PPG, 3.9 RPG and 4.9 APG on .415/.331/.732 shooting through 62 games (30.2 MPG) as a rookie.
Andre Iguodala To Undergo Surgery For Fractured Wrist
Warriors forward Andre Iguodala suffered a fractured left wrist on Monday against Phoenix and will undergo surgery next week, the team announced (via Twitter).
No timetable was given for Iguodala’s potential return, with the Warriors saying an update will be provided after he has surgery.
Iguodala, 39, seriously contemplated retirement before the 2022/23 season began, but was convinced to come back for one more year with the Warriors. However, he has made just eight appearances this season, averaging 2.1 PPG, 2.1 RPG and 2.4 APG in 14.1 MPG.
It’s unclear if this will mark the end of the 19-year veteran’s career; that might depend on how the Warriors finish out the season as they look to defend their title. It’s possible they might need to win at least one playoff series for Iguodala to make it back in time to play again, as wrist fractures typically take several weeks to heal.
A two-time All-Defensive team member, Iguodala has won four championships with Golden State and was the 2015 Finals MVP. In 1,231 regular season games (32.1 MPG), he holds career averages of 11.3 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 4.2 APG and 1.2 SPG on .463/.330/.709 shooting.
Trade Breakdown: Eric Gordon To The Clippers (Three-Team Deal)
This is the eighth entry in our series breaking down the significant trades of the 2022/23 season. As opposed to giving out grades, this series explores why the teams were motivated to make the moves. Let’s dive into a three-team deal between the Clippers, Rockets and Grizzlies…
On February 9:
- The Clippers acquired Eric Gordon (from the Rockets) and three second-round picks (from the Grizzlies; details here).
- The Grizzlies acquired Luke Kennard (from the Clippers) and the right to swap a 2026 second-round pick with Los Angeles.
- The Rockets acquired Danny Green (from the Grizzlies), John Wall (from the Clippers), and the right to swap the Bucks’ 2023 first-round pick for either the Clippers’ or Thunder’s 2023 first-round pick (whichever is least favorable; top-six protected; from Clippers)
The Rockets’ perspective:
Shortly after the trade, both Green and Wall were subsequently released by Houston; Green reached a buyout agreement and later signed with Cleveland, while Wall remains a free agent.
Multiple reports indicated that Houston was interested in keeping Green around, but obviously he had other plans. That makes a lot of sense — the three-time champion is 35 years old and the Rockets are the second-worst team in the NBA after finishing dead last in each of the previous two seasons.
After reaching a buyout with Wall over the summer, the Rockets wound up reacquiring him in this deal following his tumultuous first stint with the franchise. Considering he called his initial go-round “beyond trash,” it’s not surprising that he was waived outright this time.
The Rockets were rumored to be looking for a first-round pick for Gordon for at least a couple of years, and instead of receiving an extra one, they’re going to end up swapping a pick they control for one with much higher upside.
At the time of the trade, the Bucks were 37-17 and the Clippers were 31-27. Those picks would have landed at Nos. 28 and 18, respectively, last month.
The Bucks proceeded to go on a long winning streak and are now 50-19, holding a three-game lead over Boston for the best record in the NBA. Milwaukee’s 2023 first-rounder would currently land at No. 30.
The Clippers are now 36-33. Their first-rounder remains at No. 18.
However, the 34-35 Thunder only trail the Clippers by two games, and they have swap rights with the Clippers – if Oklahoma City passes L.A. in the standings, Houston would instead receive the Thunder’s 2023 first-rounder.
If both the Clippers and Thunder miss the playoffs – which is certainly possible, given how jumbled the standings are – then the Thunder would receive the more favorable of the two lottery picks. Assuming the second pick falls outside of the top six (highly likely given how the NBA’s draft lottery works), that pick would go to Houston, with the Clippers receiving Milwaukee’s pick.
All of that is basically out of the Rockets’ control. The Clippers could easily finish as high as fourth in the West or could drop out of the playoffs entirely – six teams trail them in the standings by three games or less.
Long story short, there’s a chance the Rockets could receive a late lottery pick, but perhaps more likely a pick in the late teens, in exchange for Gordon and a pick in the 27-to-30 range.
Gordon was having a down season for Houston, is 34 years old, and makes $19.57MM this season (his $20.92MM salary for next season is non-guaranteed). I’m honestly surprised the Rockets were able to get as much for him as they did, given those factors.
The Rockets also created a $3.09MM traded player exception in this deal, as noted in our TPE tracker.
The Clippers’ perspective:
Gordon is eight years older than Kennard, and it would be a little surprising if the Clippers bring him back next season on his current contract. Still, he’s a better all-around player than Kennard, and the Clippers did get back three second-rounders from Memphis to somewhat offset giving up a higher value first-rounder to Houston.
While Kennard has remained a highly efficient three-point shooter with the Clippers in ’22/23, he battled a calf strain that sidelined him for significant stretches – he only appeared in 35 of 58 games. He also wasn’t a major part of the team’s playoff rotation a couple years ago and can be frustratingly passive on offense considering he’s a minus on the defensive end – it’s bizarre to see a 44.9% three-point shooter not be more aggressive looking for his shot.
Wall struggled mightily on both ends with Los Angeles, posting a .408/303/.681 shooting line (.498 true shooting percentage) while playing porous defense. Shedding his salary in this deal could be viewed as a bonus, as there were rumors that the Clippers might buy him out if they couldn’t trade him.
Guard play was a major weakness on the roster, and Gordon was a necessary upgrade for a team hoping to compete for a title. Sure, the Clippers took on the most risk in this trade, but you could easily make the argument that not making changes would have been an even bigger risk – both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George can opt out of their contracts in 2024, and the team still owes unprotected first-rounders and swaps to the Thunder through 2026 as part of the George trade.
I didn’t view Gordon as having a relatively down season with Houston as that big of a deal. His driving ability was still there, his true shooting percentage (57.2%) remained above average for a guard, and can you really blame him for being frustrated by the situation?
When Gordon signed with the Rockets in 2016, they were a regular playoff team that had already made one conference finals appearance (in 2015). They came very close to making the Finals in 2018, but wound up losing in seven games.
The following season, the Rockets won 53 games and were eliminated by Golden State again, after which Gordon signed an extension. They made the playoffs again in ‘19/20, but everything turned to dust when James Harden requested a trade. The past few seasons Gordon became the de facto elder statesman on a roster full of very young players.
That’s not to say Gordon is still in his physical prime; that came when he first entered the league back in 2008 with the Clippers, the team that selected him No. 7 overall out of Indiana. A couple of significant knee injuries from 2011-12 changed that trajectory.
However, Gordon still evolved into a valuable player, leaning into his long-range shooting and quick first step to attack players off the dribble with Houston. He still possesses those qualities in his 15th NBA season.
In 10 games (25.0 MPG) in his second stint with the Clippers, he’s averaging 10.1 PPG, 1.9 RPG and 2.4 APG on .447/.386/.762 shooting splits (.592 TS%). He has posted a 3.43 assist-to-turnover ratio in those contests, which is an impressive mark.
One of Gordon’s strengths is that he’s self-aware. He knows his job isn’t to be a primary scorer anymore — it’s to shoot open threes, leverage his shooting to drive and draw fouls, or kick out to open shooters. He’s a smart, unselfish passer on the perimeter.
Another positive attribute that Gordon brings to the Clippers is that at 6’3″ and 215 pounds, he has a low center of gravity and a strong core, which allows him to defend forwards. Houston often ran switching schemes in the past, and he’s comfortable as part of a five-out offense as well – two things that Clippers head coach Tyronn Lue favors in the postseason.
Gordon has played the entire fourth quarter in each of the past three games, all victories. I expect that to continue as the Clippers attempt to secure a playoff spot and make a deep postseason run.
The Grizzlies’ perspective:
Memphis had the best available information on Green’s recovery from a torn ACL, as he spent the majority of the season rehabbing – he had just made his season debut on February 1, eight days before the trade deadline. I’m sure the Grizzlies valued his locker room presence, but if they didn’t think he could contribute down the stretch, there wasn’t much to be gained by keeping him around, as his contract was set to expire at the end of the season.
Kennard, on the other hand, is only 26 years old, nine years younger than Green. He brings a much-needed skill to the Grizzlies, who rank just 25th in the league in three-point percentage (34.3%).
The lefty sharpshooter out of Duke led the league in three-point shooting last season and has matched that stellar mark (44.9%) in 46 total games in ‘22/23. Kennard is also under team control for multiple seasons – he’ll make $15.42MM in ’23/24 and the Grizzlies will hold a team option for the same salary in ’24/25.
Kennard has shown in the past that he has some play-making chops as well, averaging 4.1 APG back in ‘19/20 with Detroit. Through 11 games (21.0 MPG) with Memphis, he’s averaging 6.7 PPG, 2.3 RPG and 1.9 APG on .404/.455/1.000 shooting splits (.611 TS%).
The Grizzlies’ roster is full of players in their early-to-mid 20s, with veteran center Steven Adams the elder statesman at 29. Kennard fits perfectly with their timeline as far as that goes, and he’s young enough that he could certainly improve in the coming years.
As previously mentioned, Kennard is not a great individual defender, but he does fine in team concepts and is generally in the right spots. The Grizzlies have a few excellent defensive players on the roster, so perhaps they will be able to mask some of his weaknesses.
This could be viewed as both a short- and long-term upgrade for the Grizzlies, and adding Kennard’s extra salary this season (he makes $14.42MM this season vs. Green’s outgoing $10MM salary) didn’t affect the team much financially, as they’re still well below the luxury tax threshold.
Kennard’s mid-sized contract isn’t onerous given his age and shooting ability. The Grizzlies could conceivably use him as a salary-matching piece in the future as well if they’re so inclined.
Two-to-four second-round picks seemed to be a sweet spot for landing role player upgrades at the deadline. The Grizzlies moved three to land Kennard, but still have all of their own future first-rounders – along with one extra in 2024 – if they want to make a major trade down the line.
It’s interesting that the Clippers agreed to send Kennard to a Western Conference rival, particularly one they might have to face in the postseason. I’m sure he would have a little extra motivation if the Grizzlies are matched up against the Clippers in the playoffs.