Offseason Outlook: Golden State Warriors
Hoops Rumors is looking ahead to offseason moves for all 30 teams. We’ll examine free agency, the draft, trades and other key storylines for each franchise as the summer approaches.
State Of The Franchise
On the heels of a championship season in 2014/15, the Warriors had another outstanding run this past year, right up until the final few minutes of Game 7 of the NBA Finals, when the team couldn’t find the basket, and failed to put a bow on its record-setting, 73-win season.
It was a disappointing end to an otherwise magical season, and there were no shortage of possible explanations for the Warriors’ inability to close out the Cavaliers in a series they led three games to one. If it hadn’t been for Draymond Green‘s suspension, Andrew Bogut‘s injury, or even Stephen Curry‘s health issues, which may have limited him a little in the postseason, the series might have ended differently.
Still, the Warriors’ decision-makers aren’t the types who will rely on better luck next season. Golden State’s front office is proactive and aggressive, and won’t be shy about pushing to improve the roster for 2016/17. After all, this year’s squad won 73 regular-season games, not 82 — there still could be room to get better.
Pursuing Another MVP
Curry has won the last two NBA MVP awards, but Golden State’s offseason may focus on the guy who won the award before him. Multiple reports have indicated that the Warriors are expected to make a major push for Kevin Durant, who is set to become an unrestricted free agent for the first time.
The Thunder, who pushed the Warriors to the brink in the Western Conference Finals, remain the odds-on favorites to retain Durant, who seems more likely to head into the summer hoping to beat Golden State rather than to join them. but if KD does want a change of scenery, the Warriors could certainly make a compelling pitch. A recent report indicated that the Warriors are viewed as the biggest threat to OKC as Durant prepares to meet with potential suitors.
With more than $71MM in guaranteed contracts for 2016/17, the Warriors won’t have the cap room necessary to offer Durant a max contract unless the cap greatly exceeds the projected $94MM figure, and working out a sign-and-trade with the rival Thunder seems unlikely. Still, outside of Curry, Green, and Klay Thompson, Golden State would surely be willing to part with any of its current players to land Durant. Bogut and Andre Iguodala, who are each entering contract years and are on the books for $11MM+ apiece next season, would probably be the prime candidates to be moved in that scenario.
Other Free Agent Targets
If the Warriors don’t land Durant, they’ll have plenty of alternate targets on their shopping list. A forward who can shoot makes the most sense for Golden State, which could ultimately lead the team back to restricted free agent Harrison Barnes.
Barnes’ performance in the Finals, where he struggled mightily with his shooting touch, was a worrisome sign for a player who could be looking at a maximum-salary offer sheet this offseason. It appeared at one point that Golden State would match any rival offer Barnes received, but that’s not quite so certain now. If Barnes does sign an offer sheet from another team, the Warriors will have a few days to make their decision on whether or not to match it, so that could allow the team to explore the market to see if there are more appealing options out there.
One of those options may be Dirk Nowitzki, whom the Warriors reportedly intend to call once free agency begins. I would be shocked if Nowitzki, a Maverick since 1998, left Dallas, but there’s no reason Golden State shouldn’t take a shot. It’s hard to imagine any free agent who wouldn’t have at least some interest in joining a team coming off a 73-9 season.
Whether or not the Warriors are able to land a big fish in free agency, the club also figures to focus on retooling its bench. Like Barnes, Festus Ezeli and Ian Clark are restricted free agents, while Marreese Speights, Leandro Barbosa, Brandon Rush, and Anderson Varejao are eligible for unrestricted free agency.
It’s possible that Ezeli will be retained if his price doesn’t get too high, and a couple of those veterans could be back on minimum-salary deals. But I’d expect the Warriors to let some of those players walk, then use any leftover cap room or exceptions to focus on upgrading its bench, adding players to complement Iguodala and Shaun Livingston on the second unit.
Draft Outlook
- First-round picks: 30th
- Second-round picks: None
Of course, with so many veterans facing free agency, one path for the Warriors to address their bench is through the draft. The 30th overall pick is actually a very nice asset to have this season, given the rising salary cap. The draft’s final first-rounder will likely sign a four-year contract worth less than $6MM, including a first-year salary of about $1.17MM, as we outlined here. Talented young players don’t come much more affordably than that — we could even see some second-round picks sign bigger deals than that.
With 29 prospects off the board ahead of their pick, the Warriors are unlikely to land an impact player at No. 30, but if several teams select draft-and-stash players ahead of them, it could make sense for the Dubs to grab a player who can join the roster immediately.
Many mock drafts agree with that approach, suggesting that Golden State could swap out a departing veteran free agent for a young replacement. In their latest mocks, ESPN’s Chad Ford and Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress.com have the Warriors addressing the center position, picking Damian Jones (Vanderbilt) and Diamond Stone (Maryland), respectively. Our own mock draft has Golden State adding depth at the two spot by nabbing Patrick McCaw (UNLV).
Planning For Steph’s Raise
Curry is currently one of the NBA’s best bargains, having signed a four-year, $44MM extension with the Warriors in 2012. That deal will expire after the 2016/17 season, and it’s virtually a given that the club will offer Curry a max contract – in terms of both dollars and years – at that time.
Assuming Curry remains in Golden State, that means his salary will more than double for the 2017/18 season. With the cap increasing and only Thompson and Green currently on guaranteed contracts beyond 2017, the Warriors should be in great shape to accommodate that huge raise. But it’s still somethings worth taking into account as they pursue free agents this summer, since the cap is expected to level out somewhat, beginning in 2018.
Final Take
The Warriors have vowed to be aggressive this offseason, and given what an appealing destination Golden State is, I’d expect plenty of free agents to be linked to the team in the coming weeks. Nonetheless, it will be a challenge to lure top targets like Durant and Nowitzki, who have only played for one team for their entire careers, to the Bay Area.
If the Warriors are unable to land one of those top free agents, re-signing Barnes and making a few changes to their bench isn’t a bad Plan B. Considering the team was just one quarter away from its second consecutive championship, it should be a legit title contender again in 2016/17, even without making a huge splash.
Guaranteed Salary
- Klay Thompson ($16,663,575)
- Draymond Green ($15,330,435)
- Stephen Curry ($12,112,359)
- Andre Iguodala ($11,131,368)
- Andrew Bogut ($11,027,027)
- Shaun Livingston ($3,000,000) — Partial guarantee; non-guaranteed portion listed below1
- Kevon Looney ($1,182,840)
- (Jason Thompson $945,126) — Salary remaining from release via stretch provision
- Total: $71,392,730
Player Options
- None
Team Options
- None
Non-Guaranteed Salary
- Shaun Livingston ($2,782,450) — Partial guarantee; guaranteed portion listed above1
Restricted Free Agents (Qualifying Offers/Cap Holds)
- Harrison Barnes ($5,194,227/$9,683,495)
- Festus Ezeli ($3,013,123/$5,021,870)
- Ian Clark ($1,215,696/$1,215,696)
- James Michael McAdoo ($1,180,431/$1,180,431)
- Totals: $10,603,477/$17,101,492
Unrestricted Free Agents (Cap Holds)
- Marreese Speights ($7,248,500)
- Leandro Barbosa ($3,250,000)
- Brandon Rush ($980,431)
- Anderson Varejao ($980,431)
- Total: $12,459,362
Other Cap Holds
- Jermaine O’Neal ($2,400,000)
- Ognjen Kuzmic ($980,431)
- No. 30 pick ($976,300)
- Total: $4,356,731
Projected Salary Cap: $92,000,000
Footnotes:
- Livingston’s full $5,782,450 salary will become guaranteed if he’s still on the roster beyond June 30th.
The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Warriors Evolving From Small Ball Approach
- Warriors owner Joe Lacob acknowledged the franchise’s role in popularizing a small-ball approach around the NBA, but says now that numerous teams are attempting to copy their style of play it is time to evolve once again, Jennifer Elias of The Silicon Valley Business Journal writes. “We drove this idea of small ball, and it’s a different style of play,” Lacob said. “Having said that, I think it’s important to know that whenever everyone else starts doing things, it’s time to start doing what’s next. We’re on to the next idea — How can we iterate to evolve to get an advantage? I can assure you we’re very forward thinking in that regard.”
Warriors Offseason Outlook
The young playmaker has already been picking new coach Luke Walton‘s brain about how Warriors star Stephen Curry was able to develop his game to the level it is now, Medina adds. “Please don’t take this the wrong way,” Russell said. “He didn’t compare me to Steph. But I asked him a lot about Steph. I asked him a lot of Steph questions about how he got to this point.”
- The Warriors should place a high priority on re-signing restricted free agents Festus Ezeli and Harrison Barnes, Bobby Marks of The Vertical opines in his offseason primer for the franchise. The scribe cites the team’s lack of cap flexibility and the potential for the duo to turn into high-value trade assets down the line as reasons why.
Latest On Kevin Durant
Kevin Durant released his new KD9 signature shoe on Monday, and with reporters in attendance, the conversation eventually turned to Durant’s looming free agency. As Royce Young of ESPN.com details, the former MVP said that his free agency will be a “basketball decision.” Asked to clarify that answer, Durant explained that it’s not necessarily about moving to a bigger market, or landing the biggest contract.
[RELATED: Offseason Outlook: Oklahoma City Thunder]
“Just who I’m going to be playing with and the people I’m going to be around every single day, that’s what it’s all about for me,” Durant told ESPN.com. “You tend to hear about the market and the opportunities you can get off the basketball court, but I’m blessed, man, to be making what I make as a basketball player.
“And I’m doing this in Oklahoma City,” Durant continued. “I don’t care about commercials, I don’t really care about this s—, I just want to hoop. But this comes with it and I got all this being in Oklahoma City. So all that stuff doesn’t really matter to me. It’s all about who I’m gonna play with, what type of people I’m going to be around every single day and I’ll go from there.”
While Durant hasn’t been looking ahead to July 1st to figure out his plan for free agency, a number of teams around the NBA are hoping to make face-to-face pitches to him at that point, and it sounds like at least a few will have that opportunity. A source tells Frank Isola of the New York Daily News that Durant, who had considered holding meetings in New York, will likely meet with suitors in Los Angeles once the recruiting period begins.
That same source suggests to Isola that if Durant decides not to re-sign with the Thunder, the Warriors look like the biggest threat to land him. Isola also writes that OKC viewed the Knicks as a major threat for Durant at one point, but haven’t been as concerned about New York since Derek Fisher was ousted as the team’s head coach.
Wherever he lands in free agency, Durant plans on being a part of USA Basketball’s Olympic squad later in the summer, as we heard over the weekend.
Barnes, Ezeli Haven't Contemplated Free Agent Plans
- Fresh off of their crushing defeat at the hands of the Cavaliers in the NBA Finals, pending free agents Harrison Barnes and Festus Ezeli say they haven’t begun to contemplate their offseason strategy, nor have they thought about where they might be playing next season, Rusty Simmons of The San Francisco Chronicle relays. If Golden State extends the players qualifying offers, with Barnes’ being worth $5,194,227 and $3,013,123 for Ezeli, the duo would become restricted free agents and the Warriors would have the opportunity to match any offer they were to receive.
Green Headed To Rio; Lacob Vows To Be Aggressive
Warriors All-Star power forward Draymond Green has accepted an invitation to play for USA Basketball at the Rio Olympics, a source told Marc J. Spears of The Undefeated. Green will be making his USA Basketball national team debut, though he played on last year’s USA Showcase team. Golden State teammate Stephen Curry has already declined an invitation in order to rest his gimpy right knee.
- The team that gives Warriors small forward Harrison Barnes a big offer sheet in restricted free agency will be taking a major risk, Andrew Tobolowsky of UpsideMotor.com opines. Lance Stephenson posted better stats with the Pacers than Barnes did this season prior to hitting the free agent market and never lived up his supposed potential after signing with the Hornets in 2014, Tobolowsky points out. Potential suitors may overvalue Barnes in the belief he’ll thrive with a bigger role than he’s had with Golden State, Tobolowsky adds.
Warriors May Pursue Dirk Nowitzki
The Warriors could make a run at Dirk Nowitzki if they fail in their pursuit of top free agent target Kevin Durant, Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury News reports.
Warriors owner Joe Lacob and GM Bob Myers have bounced around the idea of adding the Mavericks’ longtime franchise player, who is expected to opt out of his contract and become an unrestricted free agent, Kawakami continues. Nowitzki made just $8,333,334 last season in a team-friendly deal that helped them sign free agents Wesley Matthews and Chandler Parsons. He is scheduled to make $8,692,184 next season.
Lacob told reporters after Game 7 of the NBA Finals on Sunday, including ESPN’s Marc Stein, that the club will be “very aggressive” in pursuing roster changes this offseason.
Nowitzki could be the team’s starting center in place of Andrew Bogut, or head the second unit as an upgrade over Marreese Speights or Festus Ezeli, Kawakami points out. However, landing Durant is the top priority while Nowitzki would be a next-tier discussion for the Warriors, who are unsure if Nowitzki would seriously consider leaving Dallas after spending his entire career there, Kawakami adds.
As Eddie Sefko of The Dallas Morning News recently reported, Nowitzki was leaning toward signing a two- or three-year deal with the Mavericks. But if Nowitzki believes the franchise is too far away from serious title contention, he may be persuaded to join a team like the Warriors in pursuit of a second ring. The Mavericks defeated the Heat in the 2011 Finals.
Dallas was 42-40 this past season and lost in the opening round of the playoffs after its top free agent target last summer, DeAndre Jordan, spurned them at the last minute and rejoined the Clippers.
Pacific Notes: Walton, Rondo, Cousins, Clippers
Luke Walton has managed to stay focused on his duties as lead assistant with the Warriors, even as his head coaching job with the Lakers awaits, writes Marc Berman of The New York Post. Walton had his first interview on April 18th — more than two months ago — when he had a phone conversation with Knicks president Phil Jackson. “Luke is a real loyal guy,” said fellow Golden State assistant Ron Adams. “And he’s real loyal to the Golden State Warriors — has been since he was named coach of the Lakers. It might be hard for people to understand that. I would say he’s atypical in that regard. A lot of people, if a team would’ve allowed what the Lakers allowed, I think [the person] would’ve been more fixated on that team than this team. That’s not Luke. That’s not what Luke has been.” Walton will coach his final game with the Warriors tonight, then will likely be introduced as the Lakers’ new coach later this week.
There’s more from the Pacific Division:
- Kings point guard Rajon Rondo pronounced himself fully healthy as he prepares for his second straight year of free agency, according to Gary Washburn of The Boston Globe. Rondo signed a one-year deal with Sacramento last summer, which gave him a first-hand view of the turmoil in the organization, especially between DeMarcus Cousins and former coach George Karl. “Obviously it didn’t go the way we wanted it as an exit [missing the playoffs], but I was able to bounce back, I believe,” Rondo said. “I am very healthy. I’ve been working extremely hard on my body and my game. I’m 30 years old and I feel great.” Rondo’s numbers had declined since tearing his right anterior cruciate ligament in 2013, but he bounced back to average 11.9 points and 11.7 assists per game this season.
- Cousins’ younger brother, Jaleel, worked out for the Kings on Saturday, according to James Jones of The Sacramento Bee. The 6-11, 250-pound center was a senior this season at South Florida.
- Dee Brown and Pat Sullivan have emerged as assistant coaching candidates with the Clippers, tweets Marc Stein of ESPN.com. Kevin Eastman, a longtime assistant to Doc Rivers, announced his retirement earlier this week.
- The Clippers will hold two workouts Monday, tweets Rowan Kavner of Clippers.com. The morning session will feature Alabama’s Retin Obasohan, Miami’s Sheldon McClellan, Kentucky’s Alex Poythress, Maryland’s Jake Layman, Villanova’s Daniel Ochefu and UNLV’s Stephen Zimmerman. Working out in the afternoon will be Tulsa’s James Woodard, West Virginia’s Jaysean Page, UNLV’s Patrick McCaw, Louisiana’s Alex Hamilton, SMU’s Markus Kennedy and Iowa’s Jared Uthoff.
Sixers Notes: Barnes, Simmons, Colangelo, Workout
Free agent Harrison Barnes might be the Sixers’ solution at small forward, according to Keith Pompey of The Philadelphia Inquirer. Philadelphia is hoping to upgrade its perimeter defense, and the only wings currently on the roster are Nik Stauskas, Robert Covington and Hollis Thompson, who are all more valuable as shooters than defenders. The 6’8″ Barnes would bring a mix of offense and defense that coach Brett Brown is looking for, and at 24 he is just entering the prime of his career. Barnes will be a restricted free agent, so Pompey says a max offer may be necessary to discourage the Warriors from matching. The Sixers will have plenty of money available, with a little more than $33.3MM in guaranteed salary against a cap projected at about $94MM.
There’s more news out of Philadelphia:
- Ben Simmons has all the tools to be a great NBA player except outside shooting, Pompey writes in a separate piece. Pompey, who advocates Simmons as the No. 1 pick, says the Sixers are excited about the prospect of having an elite passer at power forward because it creates more options in the pick-and-roll. Cavaliers star LeBron James has become a mentor to Simmons, and he sees great things ahead for the LSU freshman. “I think we all don’t know just yet how great of a kid he is and how down to earth he is with the game of basketball and life in general,” James said.
- This week presents the first opportunity for new team president Bryan Colangelo to put his stamp on the franchise, Pompey writes in another story. With the draft on Thursday and free agency a week and a half away, Colangelo will have opportunities to make the type of bold moves he became famous for with the Raptors and Suns.
- Six players are scheduled to attend a workout Monday in Philadelphia, tweets Derek Bodner of PhillyMag.com. The Sixers will welcome Villanova point guard Ryan Arcidiacono, Kansas power forward Perry Ellis, Old Dominion point guard Trey Freeman, former Buffalo power forward Justin Moss, New Mexico State power forward Pascal Siakam and Stony Brook power forward Jameel Warney.
Harrison Barnes A Candidate For Max Contract
- Bobby Marks of The Vertical examines the new definition of a “max player,” identifying 11 pending free agents who could land maximum-salary contracts this offseason, including Warriors forward Harrison Barnes and Magic guard Evan Fournier.