Hoops Rumors Originals

Hoops Links Vol. 9: Time Travel, North Korean Diplomacy, More

June 15th, 2017 at 3:25pm CST by Austin Kent

We’re back with the latest edition of Hoops Links, one that will make you appreciate the joys of the NBA blogosphere as much as we do. Now, with the Finals in the rear-view mirror, celebrating good original content is as important as ever.

Once a week we round up the best content that we come across while obsessively perusing the internet and now you can help. Find a blog article that you think deserves a shout out next Thursday? Send it my way on Twitter (@AustinKent). Even if you wrote the blog yourself, nominate it for inclusion in future editions.

Remember, keep things limited to Cavaliers Era Shawn Kemp, relevant, original and fresh.

The Celtics have plenty of decisions to make over the course of the next few years, especially since their cap space projects to dry up after this offseason. Retaining their roster as is and signing a big name free agent in 2017 could put Boston in position to far exceed the luxury tax next season when it comes time to re-sign Isaiah Thomas and Avery Bradley. Jason Sullivan of You’re Ducking Right recently broke down the pros and cons of retaining each guard, coming to the conclusion that the C’s will inevitably need to part with one if they want to build around Markelle Fultz.

Author: Jason Sullivan – @Sully6827
Rating: 9 out of 10 Sophie’s Choices
Link: Isaiah Thomas vs. Avery Bradley.

Much has been said about how an increasing reliance on three-point shooting has changed the game of basketball, but few have delved into what it takes to stop a successful team on the perimeter. Thomas Bassine of Big Three Sports went to work compiling the three-point percentages certain teams allowed compared to what one might reasonably expect those opposing percentages to be. The result? A statistical analysis of how teams are defending against the biggest trend in basketball.

Author: Thomas Bassine – @Big3Sports
Rating: 9 out of 10 Scatter Plots
Link: Three-point defense trends.

There’s a decent chance that Dennis Rodman‘s latest trip to North Korea will have a negligible impact on anything but perhaps the quarterly sales of bootlegged Bulls jerseys on the streets of Pyongyang, but that doesn’t change the fact that the retired forward is likely the only person alive that has personal relationships with both Donald Trump and Kim-Jong Un. Dan Devine of Ball Don’t Lie summarizes the Washington Post’s reporting.

Author: Dan Devine – @YourManDevine
Rating: 7 out of 10 Mermaid Puzzles
Link: Dennis Rodman in North Korea, 2017.

It didn’t take long for the speculation about hypothetical Cavaliers trades to kick in following their loss in the NBA Finals. Sam Beech of the King James Gospel, however, insists that Cleveland should resist making a blockbuster trade. Forget Carmelo Anthony altogether and don’t rush out to trade Kevin Love or Kyrie Irving, Beech says, thwarting some of the most frequently discussed trade possibilities.

Author: Sam Beech – @KJG_NBA
Rating: 7 out of 10 Hasty Overreactions
Link: Cavs should not make blockbuster trade.

If you were simultaneously granted the abilities to go invisible and time travel, it’s presumed that you’d skip ahead to the day the free agency moratorium lifts in order to sneak through the journals of various general managers. I get it. Alas, for now at least, we’re stuck with David Nash’s thought exercise. For The Four Point Play, Nash imagines what the diaries of Rockets GM Daryl Morey and Thunder GM Sam Presti might look like after two vital 10-day stretches in each executive’s career.

Author: David Nash – @DKN17
Rating: 9 out of 10 Cringeworthy Drakes
Link: Sam Presti, Daryl Morey diaries.

After last summer’s historically mediocre shopping spree, the Trail Blazers don’t have much cap space in 2017. Eric Griffiths of Blazer’s Edge, however, has some options that could create some breathing room for the franchise. Griffiths floats Pat Connaughton and Tim Quarterman as possible cuts with Meyers Leonard an intriguing salary dump option.

Author: Eric Griffiths – @EricG_NBA
Rating: 8 out of 10 Scroungers
Link: How Blazers can make cap space.

The Wizards haven’t had much success luring NBA superstars home to the D.C. area, most recently missing out on Kevin Durant last summer. Durant, a Washington native, didn’t even grant the franchise a meeting last offseason before taking his talents to Robert W. Crown Memorial State Beach. Ryan Eugene of Wiz of Awes, however, thinks the tide could be changing, citing recent comments from Will Barton and Greivis Vasquez about returning home.

Author: Ryan Eugene – @ButterScotchT
Rating: 8 out of 10 Google Searches For Beaches Near Oracle Arena
Link: Local players interested in playing for Wizards.

After spurring a chorus of speculation at the trade deadline by tweeting an emoji, Pistons big man Andre Drummond has done it all over again. Count Steve Hinson of Detroit Bad Boys among those frustrated that we may be in line for another barrage of social-media-fueled angst as the rumor mill surrounding possible transactions begins to fly.

Author: Steve Hinson – @Shinons8
Rating: 7 out of 10 Damn Millennials
Link: Andre Drummond’s emoji tweet.

While they’ve managed to turn themselves into a perennial playoff team and regular dark horse option to make noise in the west, make no mistake, the Clippers Curse is alive and well. Need a reminder of just how blech things have been for the franchise? Autumn Anderson of Clipperholics recently published a feature detailing just how much of an impact the Michael Olowokandi-era bad luck continues to have on the organization.

Author: Autumn Anderson – @AAAutumn_
Rating: 8 out of 10 Eric Piatkowski Jerseys
Link: The Clippers Curse is real.

The thought of Dwight Howard putting up jump shots from beyond the arc is naturally unsettling, but that’s exactly what the big man plans to do for the Hawks in order to prolong his career. Justin Hodges of Soaring Down South weighed in on some recent comments made by the traditional back-to-the-basket big man, suggesting that Howard no longer boasts the impressive interior defense to get away with being a one-trick pony.

Author: Justin Hodges – @HodgepodgeHoops
Rating: 8 out of 10 Ambitious Shooting Coaches
Link: Dwight Howard to add three-pointer.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Houston Rockets

June 15th, 2017 at 12:08pm CST by Arthur Hill

A year ago, the Rockets were a directionless team that barely snuck into the playoffs. They had no coach after dispatching both Kevin McHale and J.B. Bickerstaff, and there was disharmony in the locker room stemming from a cold war between James Harden and Dwight Howard.

The problems cleared up over the span of a few weeks last summer, and Houston emerged from the wreckage with a team that posted the league’s third-best record. Mike D’Antoni was hired as head coach in early June and brought a fast-paced, spread-the-floor philosophy that the Rockets embraced. Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon signed as free agents, adding two weapons that were perfect for D’Antoni’s system. Howard left for Atlanta, ending the behind-the-scenes dissension.

But even with those problems solved, there are questions that remain. Here are five:

1. Does this really work?

D’Antoni has a history of excellent regular-season teams that had short playoff runs. In four straight seasons in Phoenix, he coached clubs with 62, 54, 61 and 55 wins, but never advanced past the conference finals. So even as the Rockets strung together a 55-27 campaign with a record number of 3-point attempts and makes, there were plenty of skeptics waiting for the playoff failure.

It came against San Antonio, a familiar nemesis for D’Antoni teams. The Rockets’ three-point marksmen misfired badly in the elimination game as the Spurs embarrassed them by 39 points in Houston, despite playing without Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker. A second-round ouster raises the age-old question of whether a team that so heavily emphasizes offense over defense can ever be a serious threat to the NBA title.

2. How do the Rockets get better?

The Rockets shipped this year’s first-round draft pick to the Lakers in a deadline deal for Lou Williams, and their second-rounder belongs to the Knicks from a 2015 trade. They own Denver’s second-round pick at No. 43 and Portland’s at No. 45, but it’s hard to find someone who can contribute right away at that point in the draft.

Free agency options will also be limited, as the Rockets lack real cap space. The good news is nine of their top 10 players are under contract next season, with Harden secured for the next two years and Anderson and Gordon for the next three. However, any significant personnel moves this summer will probably have to come through trades. GM Daryl Morey pledged this week to “keep improving our roster,” saying he doesn’t view the champion Warriors as unbeatable.

3. Will Nene be back?

The one member of the rotation headed for free agency is veteran center Nene. The Rockets signed him with their room exception last summer, getting valuable interior help for the bargain price of $2.898MM. Nene became a dependable backup, averaging 9.1 PPG in 17.9 MPG over 67 games and posting his best production per 36 minutes since 2011/12.

Nene will turn 35 before next season opens, and it’s hard to picture a better situation at this stage of his career. Look for him to re-sign in Houston, probably with a modest raise.

4. How many extensions will get handed out?

The Rockets knew they had decisions to make this summer on Clint Capela and Trevor Ariza, but changes in the new collective bargaining agreement mean Williams, Patrick Beverley and Montrezl Harrell with be eligible for extensions as well.

Beverley can receive $31MM over three years in a new contract that would start with 2019/20. That represents a nice increase for a player who will be paid $10.5MM total over the next two seasons, but he will turn 31 before that contract kicks in, so the Rockets have to consider whether it’s a wise investment. Williams, who is two years older, can get $39MM over four years, starting with 2018/19. Capela, entering his fourth season, can be extended for four years at up to 25% of the salary cap for ’18/19.

5. Should they go over the cap or under?

Being so close to the cap line gives the Rockets a lot of flexibility heading into the summer. They could create up some extra room by renouncing all their cap holds and non-guaranteed deals, but that would mean giving up Nene and would still give them only about $12MM to work with, along with a room mid-level exception worth $4.2MM.

If Houston decides to operate over the cap, it would have two exceptions available in the amounts of $8.4MM and $3.1MM. That’s enough for a couple of small roster tweaks, but likely wouldn’t be enough for a real difference maker.

The Rockets are fully committed to their style of play, from management to the coaching staff to their superstar to their roster decisions over the past year. There’s no turning back now, so look for any personnel moves this summer to set up another record-setting year of bombing away from behind the three-point line.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Rockets financially:

Guaranteed Salary

James Harden ($28,299,399)
Ryan Anderson ($19,578,455)
Eric Gordon ($12,943,020)
Trevor Ariza ($7,420,912)
Lou Williams ($7,000,000)
Patrick Beverley ($5,513,514)
Clint Capela ($2,334,528)
Sam Dekker ($1,794,600)
Montrezl Harrell ($1,471,382)
Chinanu Onuaku ($1,312,611)
Total: $87,668,421

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Kyle Wiltjer ($1,312,611)¹
Isaiah Taylor ($1,312,611)
Total: $2,625,222

Restricted Free Agents

Bobby Brown ($1,724,305 qualifying offer / $1,724,305 cap hold)
Troy Williams ($1,512,611 qualifying offer / $1,512,611 cap hold)
Total: $3,236,916

Cap Holds

Nene ($3,477,600)
Total: $3,477,600

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $11,700,349

With more than $87MM on their 2017/18 cap in the form of guaranteed salaries, the Rockets would have a team salary of $89,299,651 if they added a couple cap charges for empty roster spots to that total. That would give the club about $11.7MM in cap room, which isn’t much more than what the mid-level exception is expected to be worth. In order to clear out additional space, a trade would be necessary.

Footnotes:

Wiltjer’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 1.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Brooklyn Nets

June 13th, 2017 at 3:59pm CST by Luke Adams

For the second straight season, the Nets struggled to crack the 20-win mark, and for the second straight year, the race for the top spot in the lottery was no silver lining for fans, since the Celtics will end up with Brooklyn’s pick.

The 2013 blockbuster that saw the Nets trade multiple first-round picks (and swap rights) to Boston for Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett continues to loom large over the franchise. Although there were some positive signs from some of the Nets’ young players in 2016/17, Brooklyn finished with an NBA-worst 20-62 record and owes the Celtics one more first-round pick in 2018, hampering the organization’s ability to accelerate its rebuild.

Here are five key questions facing the Nets this offseason:

1. Is Brook Lopez staying put?

Few NBA players have been involved in as much trade speculation in recent years as Lopez, but the Nets continue to show little interest in moving their veteran big man, despite not being close to contention. Brooklyn was reportedly seeking multiple first-rounders in exchange for Lopez earlier this year, reluctantly lowering the asking price to a first-round pick and a second-rounder just before the deadline, as bigs like DeMarcus Cousins and Nerlens Noel were dealt for modest packages.

Lopez is heading into the final year of his contract with the Nets, which means the team could risk losing him as an unrestricted free agent in 2018. Lopez seems happy in Brooklyn, and the franchise likes having him around as a reliable veteran presence. But the Nets aren’t going to contend in 2017/18, which means that if Lopez is going to be a part of Brooklyn’s next playoff roster, he’ll have to re-sign.

Lopez has stayed healthy in recent years and even added a three-point shot to his arsenal last season. He’d have value in a trade, so the Nets will have to decide in the coming months – or perhaps even the coming weeks – what his future holds. Is he considered a long-term piece? If so, is the club confident he won’t leave as a free agent in 2018? If not, Brooklyn may have to seriously listen to trade inquiries.

2. Will the Nets return to the restricted free agent market?

A year ago, the Nets aggressively pursued multiple restricted free agents, inking Tyler Johnson, Allen Crabbe, and Donatas Motiejunas to offer sheets. All of those offers were matched, leaving Brooklyn empty-handed, so it will be interesting to see if the team dips back into that well in 2017.

Restricted free agents are generally younger and less expensive than the top players on the unrestricted free agent market, which appeals to a Nets team building for the future. But the fact that teams have the ability to match any offer sheet their restricted free agents sign makes it difficult to pry them away. The Nets would likely have to overpay to avoid having their offers matched, and even then, there are no guarantees — Crabbe’s deal looked untenable for the Blazers, but they still matched.

This time around, the Nets could splash around for RFAs like Otto Porter, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Nerlens Noel, but those players likely aren’t going anywhere even if Brooklyn offers the max. Second-tier RFAs like Jonathon Simmons, Mason Plumlee, Nikola Mirotic, and Tony Snell may make better targets for the Nets, if they decide to go that route.

3. What should the Nets do with their two first-round picks?

Although the Nets were forced to give up the No. 1 overall pick to Boston, the team still holds a pair of first-rounders. Brooklyn has the Celtics’ first-rounder (No. 27) as a result of that pick swap, and also acquired the Wizards’ pick (No. 22) in a deadline deal for Bojan Bogdanovic.

A year ago, the Nets showed that they were willing to roll the dice on a player who wouldn’t necessarily be ready to contribute right away, when they used their lone first-round selection on injured guard Caris LeVert. That’s looking like a savvy pick 12 months later, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Nets go a similar route this time around.

Prospects with health questions, such as Harry Giles and OG Anunoby, could be on the Nets’ radar, and draft-and-stash prospects like Andzejs Pasecniks and Isaiah Hartenstein may also make sense. Rodions Kurucs and Jonathan Jeanne may also have been possibilities for Brooklyn, but Kurucs has withdrawn from the draft, and Jeanne was diagnosed with Marfan syndrome, putting his basketball career in jeopardy.

4. Are there other opportunities to add draft picks?

If the Nets don’t dive into the free agent market as actively as they did a year ago, they’ll have plenty of cap room available. In order to reach the salary floor, it might make sense for the team to accommodate another club’s salary dump, if it means gaining an asset of value.

For instance, the Trail Blazers are believed to be shopping one of their three first-round picks in an effort to reduce team salary, and the Nets have reportedly inquired. The opportunity to add a first-round pick as a reward for taking on a contract like Crabbe’s or Evan Turner‘s or Meyers Leonard‘s should be appealing to the Nets. Particularly since each of those players has some upside, even if they are overpriced.

Crabbe, a Nets target last summer, would be the most obvious fit for Brooklyn, though he’ll be even more expensive than he was in 2016, due to a 15% trade kicker. It’s also worth noting that the Nets currently don’t have a 2018 first-round pick, so if they want to get back into that draft, they could seek out a trade partner besides Portland.

5. Which of the Nets’ non-guaranteed players are keepers?

The Nets only have one free agent – Randy Foye – but six of their players have non-guaranteed contracts or team options for the 2017/18 season. In some cases, those decisions should be fairly easy — Sean Kilpatrick will be brought back on his minimum salary deal, for example. Spencer Dinwiddie and Joe Harris should return too.

In some instances though, those decisions may not be so simple. Did the Nets see enough from K.J. McDaniels down the stretch to warrant picking up his $3.48MM team option? How about former first-round pick Archie Goodwin, who is on a minimum salary contract? For every player the Nets bring back, there will be one fewer roster spot to use on a new draft pick or free agent signing.

Brooklyn has plenty of time to make many of those decisions, but will have to make early calls on Kilpatrick, Harris, and Quincy Acy, whose 2017/18 salaries will all be guaranteed by mid-July.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Nets financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Brook Lopez ($22,642,350)
Jeremy Lin ($12,000,000)
Trevor Booker ($9,125,000)
Andrew Nicholson ($6,362,998)
Deron Williams ($5,474,787) — Waived via stretch provision.
Justin Hamilton ($3,000,000)
Caris LeVert ($1,632,480)
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($1,471,382)
Isaiah Whitehead ($1,312,611)
Total: $63,021,608

Player Options

None

Team Options

K.J. McDaniels ($3,476,873)
Total: $3,476,873

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Quincy Acy ($1,709,538)¹
Archie Goodwin ($1,577,230)
Spencer Dinwiddie ($1,524,305)
Joe Harris ($1,524,305)²
Sean Kilpatrick ($1,524,305)³
Total: $7,859,683

Restricted Free Agents

None

Cap Holds

Randy Foye ($3,000,000)
No. 22 overall pick ($1,713,720)
No. 27 overall pick ($1,423,560)
Total: $6,137,280

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $33,209,882

With eight guaranteed salaries, two cap holds for first-round picks, and a pair of cap charges for empty roster spots, the Nets would have a team salary of $67,790,118. Their available cap room will dip a little if they keep some of their players with non-guaranteed salaries, as is expected, but they’d still have more than enough room to aggressively pursue at least one major free agent — perhaps an RFA, if they follow 2016’s blueprint.

Footnotes:

Acy’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 16.
Harris’ salary becomes fully guaranteed after June 30.
Kilpatrick’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after June 30.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: San Antonio Spurs

June 12th, 2017 at 10:55pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The San Antonio Spurs enjoyed another banner regular season and deep playoff run, only to see their championship aspirations destroyed by a key injury. When superstar Kawhi Leonard landed on the foot of the Warriors’ Zaza Pachulia in Game 1 of the Western Conference series, all the drama was drained from the series.

Gregg Popovich railed on Pachulia’s closeout, which the coach felt was a careless and dangerous play. Whether Popovich’s criticism was justified, it certainly prevented Leonard from playing the rest of the way and turned the intriguing series into a formality.

The Spurs remain one of the league’s elite teams and they could potentially be even better next season, depending upon how free agency plays out.

Here’s a look at the major questions confronting the club this offseason:

1. Can the Spurs sign unrestricted free agent Chris Paul?

The Clippers will undoubtedly offer a max deal in an effort to retain the perennial All-Star point guard. Paul’s free agent tour could be this year’s version of the Kevin Durant sweepstakes. Paul is desperately seeking a ring and the Clippers have consistently underperformed in the postseason.

If he bolts, San Antonio is the favorite to land him. The Spurs have an obvious need at the position and the possibility of CP3 joining Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge would give the NBA a third ‘Super Team’ to rival the Warriors and Cavaliers.

The major stumbling block is that the Spurs don’t have enough cap space to give Paul a max contract without some roster maneuvers. Trading sharpshooter Danny Green and his $10MM deal for next season would help the cause. However, it’s quite possible that Paul could accept a lesser deal with an opt-out after the first or second year if he’s serious about joining the Spurs.

2. If the Spurs fail to land Paul, what should they about their point guard situation?

Tony Parker is expected to miss at least the first two months of the season and Patty Mills is an unrestricted free agent.

The Spurs did draft Dejounte Murray last June and his role could expand. Mills obviously knows the system and there may not be a ton of competition to bring him back. The Spurs could easily get by with the Mills-Murray combo and get a boost from Parker when he’s ready to go.

The alternative would be to pursue one of the other starter-quality free agents on the market. Kyle Lowry, Derrick Rose, Jeff Teague and former Spur George Hill will all be seeking long-term deals.

3. Should the Spurs re-sign swingman Jonathon Simmons?

Simmons will be a restricted free agent after the club extends him a qualifying offer. The University of Houston alum saw his playing time expand during the postseason, which enhanced his chances of receiving a lucrative offer sheet.

San Antonio owns Simmons’ Early Bird rights, but a heavily backloaded deal would make it difficult for the Spurs to keep him around. He’s not a young player by NBA standards — though Simmons has only two years of NBA experience, he’s 27. While the Spurs would like to keep him around, they’re not going to significantly damage their cap situation for the next few years to retain him.

4. Will Pau Gasol and David Lee exercise their player options?

One of the Spurs’ frontcourt rotation players, Dewayne Dedmon, has already decided to opt out and test the market. Gasol and Lee are more likely to stick around.

Gasol will make $16.2MM next season and he’s not going to find a better situation at his age to get another ring. He has already strongly hinted that he has no plans to leave the Spurs.

Lee would only make approximately $2.3MM if he decides to stay. Like Gasol though, he may not find a better place to pursue a championship. Lee has bounced around the league in recent seasons and suffered a knee injury in the Western Conference Finals, which would further depress his value on the open market.

5. If Manu Ginobili retires, what should the Spurs do to replace him?

Ginobili’s playing time decreased in recent years, but he was still averaging nearly 20 minutes a game. His unique skills as a sparkplug would be hard to replace.

Simmons’ playing time would spike if he re-signs and there are plenty of wing players who will be looking for teams on the free agent market.

If they don’t eat up their cap space by signing Paul or some other high-priced point guard, the Spurs could go the “you can never have enough shooters” route and try to land a J.J. Redick or C.J. Miles. Another option is to sign Adam Hanga, the Euroleague’s Defensive Player of the Year. The Spurs retain his rights after drafting him back in 2011.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Spurs financially:

Guaranteed Salary

LaMarcus Aldridge ($21,461,010)
Kawhi Leonard ($18,868,625)
Tony Parker ($15,453,126)
Danny Green ($10,000,000)
Kyle Anderson ($2,151,704)
Tim Duncan ($1,881,250) — Waived via stretch provision.
Davis Bertans ($1,312,611)
Dejounte Murray ($1,312,611)
Livio Jean-Charles ($1,035,200) — Waived.
Total: $73,476,137

Player Options

Pau Gasol ($16,197,500)
David Lee ($2,328,652)
Total: $18,526,152

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Bryn Forbes ($1,312,611)¹
Total: $1,312,611

Restricted Free Agents

Jonathon Simmons ($1,671,382 qualifying offer / $1,671,382 cap hold)
Total: $1,671,382

Cap Holds

Manu Ginobili ($21,000,000)
Patty Mills ($6,800,001)
Dewayne Dedmon ($3,477,600) — Player option declined.
Joel Anthony ($1,471,382)
No. 29 overall pick ($1,404,600)
Total: $34,153,583

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $22,856,803

With seven guaranteed contracts, plus cap holds for a first-round pick and four empty roster spots, the Spurs’ team salary is $78,143,197. That figure doesn’t include Gasol or Lee, who could pick up player options, and also doesn’t include Ginobili, Mills, or Simmons, all free agents. Even if none of those players return, San Antonio would still have work to do to clear enough room for a maximum salary player like Chris Paul.

Footnotes:

Forbes’ salary becomes partially guaranteed ($100,000) after August 1.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Miami Heat

June 12th, 2017 at 3:01pm CST by Luke Adams

Through the first half of the 2016/17 season, the 11-30 Heat looked like the greatest threat to the Celtics for the No. 1 spot in the NBA’s lottery rankings.

If the Heat had performed the entire season like they did the second half, when they went 30-11, they would’ve be the greatest threat to Boston for the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference.

That red-hot second-half run didn’t earn Miami a spot in the postseason, but it significantly changed the team’s outlook for 2017/18. While president Pat Riley may still use the dreaded R-word (“rebuild”), a 25-win season likely would’ve seen the Heat undertaking a multiyear retooling process — instead, Riley has hinted at an accelerated rebuild with an eye toward getting the club back in contention within the next couple years.

As they look to build a roster capable of getting back into the playoffs, here are five key questions facing the Heat this offseason:

1. Will the Heat pursue a “whale”?

Even when the Heat aren’t a title contender, they’re a popular destination for free agents. South Beach is a draw, as is Florida’s lack of income tax, but the culture Riley has built in Miami is perhaps the strongest selling point. That’s what gave the Heat the opportunity to sit down with Kevin Durant during his free agency last summer, despite having the weakest roster of the six teams Durant considered.

At season’s end, Riley suggested that the Heat wouldn’t be in the market for a “whale” this offseason, but the club may not be able to help itself. A recent report suggested that the Jazz view Miami as a legit threat to poach free-agent-to-be Gordon Hayward, who reportedly has interest in the Heat.

Hayward would be a terrific fit in Miami, as a scorer and shooter capable of playing at the three or four, depending on the lineup around him. A maximum salary contract, or something close to it, would eat into the Heat’s cap room in a major way, but the team could afford it, and Hayward – who just turned 27 – might be worth the investment.

2. Will Dion Waiters and James Johnson be re-signed?

After realizing last summer that Dwyane Wade wouldn’t be returning, the Heat completed a flurry of signings using their excess cap room, and many of these contracts were for one year. That allowed the team to maintain its flexibility for this summer, but it has created a tricky situation in instances where Miami wants to re-sign some of those players.

Waiters and Johnson are the two most obvious examples — both players will be in line for big raises after earning $3MM and $4MM respectively, but the Heat don’t hold either player’s Bird rights, meaning they’ll need to use cap room to re-sign them.

As it stands, the Heat have more than enough space to sign both players, but that could change if they pursue Hayward or another top-tier free agent. Even if the Heat are able to re-sign both Waiters and Johnson, locking them up on fair, market-level deals would mean dedicating most of their available cap room to retaining last year’s roster. Unless both Waiters and Johnson are willing to accept discounted offers, it might make sense for the Heat to just bring back one of them, rather than both.

3. Will Wayne Ellington and Josh McRoberts be retained?

As opposed to Waiters and Johnson, who are free agents the Heat want to bring back, Ellington and McRoberts are under team control, but may become expendable if more cap room is needed for other players.

In Ellington’s case, the team holds a $6.27MM option on him for the 2017/18 season. For a player who made 2.4 three-pointers per game at a 37.8% rate, that price is certainly reasonable. However, Ellington’s days in Miami may be numbered if the team decides it needs that $6MM+ in cap room to sign or retain an impact player.

Ellington’s salary doesn’t become guaranteed until the end of the July moratorium, so the club should have plenty of time to determine its free agent options before a final decision on the 29-year-old sharpshooter is required.

As for McRoberts, he has already picked up his own player option to stick with the team, but that doesn’t guarantee him a spot on the ’17/18 roster. If they waive him and stretch his salary, the Heat could slice McRoberts’ $6MM cap hit to $2MM, easily creating an extra $4MM in cap room. Nagged by injuries in recent seasons, the 30-year-old big man has only appeared in 81 games in three years for Miami. He may be expendable, particularly if the Heat have lingering concerns about his foot.

4. Is Justise Winslow ready for a breakout year?

The Heat’s impressive second-half run came without 2015 first-rounder Justise Winslow in the lineup. Winslow continues to rehab a shoulder injury, and is expected to be ready to go for the 2017/18 season, but he remains a wild card for the franchise.

On one hand, Winslow is still just 21 years old, and his tremendous upside and very affordable salary make him an appealing trade asset if the Heat are looking to acquire an impact veteran. However, those traits also make him very intriguing to the Heat as a possible breakout candidate. With no guarantee that James Johnson returns, Winslow could be in line for a key role as a wing player capable of defending multiple positions — if he’s ready for it.

5. What will the Heat do with their lottery pick?

Unless their 2018 first-round pick lands in the top seven, the Heat will send it to Phoenix, so Miami’s 14th overall selection this season may be the team’s last chance for a couple years to add a young, highly-regarded prospect.

The Heat could go in a number of directions at No. 14, depending on how the rest of the lottery plays out. Swingmen like Donovan Mitchell, Justin Jackson, and Terrance Ferguson may still be on the board; three-point specialist Luke Kennard could also be available; if the Heat want to go big, Zach Collins and John Collins may be options.

If Riley and the Heat really want to roll the dice, they could target a high-upside player coming off an injury, such as Harry Giles or OG Anunoby. It’s possible that – after their experience with Chris Bosh – the Heat would shy away from players with major health concerns, but Riley has shown a willingness in the past to roll the dice rather than playing it safe.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Heat financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Hassan Whiteside ($23,775,506)
Goran Dragic ($17,000,450)
Josh McRoberts ($6,021,175) — Exercised player option.
Tyler Johnson ($5,881,260)
Justise Winslow ($2,705,040)
Total: $55,383,431
Note: Chris Bosh‘s $25,289,390 salary removed from cap due to medical ruling.

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Wayne Ellington ($6,270,000)¹
Josh Richardson ($1,471,382)²
Rodney McGruder ($1,312,611)³
Okaro White ($1,312,611)⁴
Total: $10,366,604

Restricted Free Agents

None

Cap Holds

Udonis Haslem ($7,600,000)
James Johnson ($4,800,000)
Dion Waiters ($3,477,600) — Player option declined.
No. 14 overall pick ($2,490,360)
Luke Babbitt ($1,471,382)
Willie Reed ($1,471,382) — Player option declined.
Total: $21,310,724

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $38,232,519

Taking into account their five guaranteed contracts, plus cap holds for a first-round pick and six empty roster spots, the Heat have a team salary of $62,767,481. However, that would mean waiving all their non-guaranteed players, including Richardson and McGruder, which is very unlikely — still, since those players are on veteran minimum salaries, they won’t cut into Miami’s cap room in a major way.

Footnotes:

Ellington’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 6.
Richardson’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after June 30.
McGruder’s salary becomes partially guaranteed ($452,625) after August 1.
White’s salary becomes partially guaranteed ($226,312) after July 1. Partial guarantee increases to $452,624 after August 1.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Community Shootaround: Sixers Draft

June 11th, 2017 at 4:54pm CST by ChrisCrouse

What the Sixers decide to do with the No. 3 overall pick could shape the entire draft, as I suggested in the team’s offseason preview. While it’s not a forgone conclusion that Markelle Fultz and Lonzo Ball go in the top-2, counting on any other outcome would be unwise.

Philadelphia has a tough decision to make with No. 3 and that leads us to tonight’s topic: Assuming Fultz and Ball are off the board, what should the Sixers do with their first round pick?

Malik Monk seems like a great fit because of his outside shooting, though it’s likely that he’ll be available in the latter half of the top-10, so trading down may be the best maneuver. If the team stays put, Josh Jackson could be the selection because of his tremendous upside or team president Bryan Colangelo could opt for the explosive skill-set of De’Aaron Fox.

Jayson Tatum is arguably the most pro-ready player in the draft and he could step in from day one alongside Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons to form a special young nucleus. If the team intends on playing the 2016 No. 1 overall selection at the point guard spot, having a slasher with Tatum’s repertoire on the wing will only help his development.

Philly could go in multiple directions on draft night and we’re putting you on the clock in tonight’s community shootaround. Tell us what you would do with the No. 3 overall pick in the comment section below. We look forward to what you have to say!

Weekly Mailbag: 6/5/17 – 6/11/17

June 11th, 2017 at 11:54am CST by Arthur Hill

We have an opportunity for you to hit us up with your questions in this, our weekly mailbag feature. Have a question regarding player movement, the salary cap or the NBA draft? Drop us a line at HoopsRumorsMailbag@Gmail.com. Here are this week’s inquiries:

Would a package of the No. 3 pick, Jahlil Okafor or Richaun Holmes, one of next year’s first-rounders and a couple second-rounders get Philly Klay Thompson? — Kevin Wisla

It’s a decent offer that might tempt some other franchise, but the Warriors aren’t going to break up the core of a team that is poised to be title favorites for the next five years. Thompson is only 27 and is under contract for about $17.8MM next season and nearly $19MM in 2018/19, a very good price for a three-time All-Star. Thompson’s shooting troubles early in the NBA Finals prompted some fans and media to start trade speculation, but he’s simply not leaving Golden State. A more realistic, and cheaper, target to fill the shooting guard slot would be Jordan Clarkson, who could become expendable if the Lakers draft another guard and is rumored to be available. The Sixers also have plenty of cash to make a run at Clippers free agent J.J. Redick this summer.

Do you think the Pistons will seek trade offers for Reggie Jackson or Andre Drummond or let Kentavious Caldwell-Pope accept a deal elsewhere to save cap space, or will they keep the roster together, but over the salary cap? — Barron Hudson

Word leaked Friday that Detroit once again plans to explore the trade value for Jackson and Drummond, who were both on the block in February. Jackson is coming off a disappointing year, and the Pistons played worse once he returned from an early-season knee injury. Coach/executive Stan Van Gundy has publicly questioned Drummond’s work ethic and said he needs to improve in several areas. Those aren’t the guys you want to build your team around, especially coming off a 37-45 season. The Pistons are committed to keeping Caldwell-Pope, a restricted free agent, and don’t have any cap room to replace him if he leaves. But they had better be prepared to make or match a max offer. There are plenty of teams with cap space [Brooklyn will be throwing money around again] and KCP is one of the best guards on the market.

Any NBA draft rumors starting to surface? Which player is most likely to fall in the draft? Which player is most likely to rise? Which team is most likely to trade up? Which team is most likely to trade down? — Matt Trapp

It may be another week or so before the rumors really start to take shape, as teams are in the middle of pre-draft workouts and still haven’t seen all the players they might be interested in. Duke’s Harry Giles is a name to watch in the late lottery, as someone may take a chance on a super talent with a history of knee problems, and teammate Luke Kennard could get chosen much higher than originally projected by a team that needs shooting help. As far as trade rumors, the Sixers don’t have a clear choice at No. 3 and the Kings at No. 5 are reportedly interested in trading up to get Kentucky point guard De’Aaron Fox, so that’s a situation to watch.

Community Shootaround: New Policy On Resting Players

June 10th, 2017 at 8:40pm CST by Arthur Hill

The NBA is ready to address the issue of healthy stars sitting out games during the regular season.

Commissioner Adam Silver held a conference call Friday with the league’s competition committee, developing guidelines to deal with the topic, relays ESPN.com. He plans to “strongly recommend” that teams rest their stars only during home games, with a limit of one per contest.

In theory, this will eliminate the problem of fans in cities where LeBron James or Stephen Curry plays once or twice a year missing out on seeing the stars in action after paying top dollar for tickets.

“Where we’re heading is the adoption of guidelines that will be in place for next season which will strongly recommend that the extent they rest, they rest at home, and teams also not rest multiple starters on the same night,” Silver said. “Let’s see how that plays out.

“I’m reluctant to get into the business of directing these great coaches on minutes. As you know, players are often injured during the season, not to the point where they otherwise can’t play but maybe shouldn’t play. Then it’s a function of league doctors versus team doctors on how healthy a player is and whether it’s appropriate a player should be on the floor that night.

“I’d like to come up with a system that relies on the good faith of our teams that to the extent rest is necessary — and it is on occasion — that it’s done in an appropriate [manner] but the league executives are not dictating to coaches and GMs precisely what games their players should or shouldn’t be playing in.”

It’s a problem unique to the NBA. The series nature of baseball means no one objects when a player gets a night off. NFL players never skip games with they’re healthy, unless it’s a meaningless one at the end of the season. NHL players have a tough-guy code and most wouldn’t think of sitting out a game just for rest.

But it’s an issue in pro basketball, as teams worry about being healthy and fresh for the playoffs.

We want to know what you think of Silver’s new guidelines. Do they go far enough? Do you believe the league will enforce them? Or is this really a problem at all?

Please share your opinion in the comments section. We look forward to what you have to say.

Hoops Rumors Originals: 6/3/17 – 6/10/17

June 10th, 2017 at 3:40pm CST by Joshua Fischman

Every week, the Hoops Rumors writing team compiles original content to complement our news feed. Here are some of our favorite segments and features from the past seven days:

Luke Adams provides a list of players eligible for rookie scale extensions in 2017.
We offer two more installments in our Five Offseason Questions series with the Kings and Wizards.
Luke Adams breaks down team’s specific salary cap landscapes with six more analyses in his Salary Cap Digest series: the Heat, Pistons, Celtics, Spurs, Cavaliers, and Warriors. Find your favorite team’s entry here.
Arthur Hill talks Dion Waiters‘ expected contract, the Celtics‘ plans for their second round picks, and whether the Mavericks might trade for Emmanuel Mudiay in his weekly Sunday mailbag. Submit your questions via Twitter (@HoopsRumors) or by sending us an email (hoopsrumorsmailbag@gmail.com).
In his weekly Hoops Links roundup of interesting articles from around the blogosphere, Austin Kent shares pieces on Thon Maker‘s enormous potential, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope‘s fascinating background, whether the Nuggets should ink Danilo Gallinari long-term, and more.
Luke Adams answered your questions about the upcoming draft, free agency, the Cavs, and other NBA topics in our weekly Thursday afternoon live chat. Read the transcript here.
Check out our free Trade Rumors app available for IOS and Android.
Here are the questions we asked you in our Community Shootaround discussions and polls this week:
- Should strict media obligations be required of NBA players?
- What adjustments must the Cavs make ahead of Game 3?
- Will the Warriors go a perfect 16-0 in the playoffs?
- Will LeBron James be a Cavalier for the rest of his career or does his future lie elsewhere?
- Had the Warriors won the Finals last year and been two-time defending champions, how, if at all, would the team be viewed differently?

Categories:
Hoops Rumors Originals

Community Shootaround: Draymond Green

June 9th, 2017 at 9:13pm CST by Austin Kent

The Cavaliers and Warriors are in the middle of a competitive Game 4 with the NBA title hanging in the balance (for one of them). If Cleveland can’t eke out a victory by the end of the night, they’ll be on the losing end of Golden State’s historic 16-0 playoff run and the offseason will have officially begun.

Such an impressive run, just one season removed from their historic 73-win 2015/16 campaign would put the already legendary Warriors club in even more impressive territory.

This isn’t a post about the Warriors winning the 2017 NBA title, however, as we at Hoops Rumors remain dutifully impartial and simply hopeful that the series will continue and hoops fans the world over get several more games of NBA action.

This is a post about last year.

Earlier this week, notoriously emotional Draymond Green told Zach Lowe of ESPN that he believes his suspension in Game 5 of the 2016 NBA Finals cost his team the title. Green, of course, was sidelined after an incident in which he appeared to take a swipe at LeBron James‘ groin.

Whether or not you agree that the suspension was warranted, the question we’d like to propose is whether or not you think having Green in the lineup for Game 5 last year would have changed the outcome of the best-of-seven series.

If the Dubs had pulled off the 2016 title, they’d be within a game from a threepeat here tonight, which comes with its own place among the league’s greatest dynasties.

The question is, if Golden State were reigning two-time defending champions, would they be perceived any different than they are? Would Kevin Durant still have signed? Would James’ legacy be impacted?

It’ll be a long 15 minutes as we await the third quarter of this fourth game of the 2017 NBA Finals, so join us on a hypothetical journey back to last year.

Load More Posts