Hoops Rumors Originals

Notable CBA Changes That Will Affect Free Agency

June 27th, 2017 at 3:20pm CST by Luke Adams

With July 1 just a few days away, the NBA is almost ready to turn the calendar and officially begin the 2017/18 league year. At the same time as the new league year gets underway, the league will also implement its new Collective Bargaining Agreement between the NBA and the players’ union.

For the most part, that CBA looks a lot like the previous CBA. There are very few major changes to the way players can be signed or otherwise acquired by NBA teams. However, the new agreement features several tweaks to existing rules, and many of those small changes will be noticeable once the 2017 free agent period officially opens on Saturday.

Below, we’ve rounded up most of the notable CBA changes that will affect this year’s free agent period. This list isn’t comprehensive. For more details, you can check out the NBA’s recap of key changes to the CBA, or – if you have a bit of a masochistic streak – you can even read the full CBA document. The changes we’ve listed below, however, are the ones that should be most important in the next few weeks.

Let’s dive in…

Salary cap management:

The salary cap and tax line for the new league year will be set by June 30. The cap and tax are currently projected to land at $99MM and $119MM, respectively.
The July moratorium will end on July 6 at 11:00am CT.
The tax apron will now be $6MM above the tax line instead of $4MM above the line. The apron represents a threshold that teams aren’t allowed to cross at any time for the rest of the league year if they’ve used the full mid-level exception or the bi-annual exception, or acquired a player via sign-and-trade.
The cap holds for first-round picks are now worth 120% of their rookie scale amounts, instead of 100%, slightly reducing available cap room for teams with first-rounders to consider. Those figures can be found here.

Restricted free agency:

Teams will now have two days instead of three days to match an offer sheet.
Restricted free agents will be able to formally sign offer sheets during the July moratorium. However, the clock for a player’s previous team to match his offer sheet won’t start until the moratorium ends. If a player signs an offer sheet during the moratorium, the player’s previous team will have until July 8 at 10:59am CT to match the offer.
The deadline to withdraw a qualifying offer to a free agent is now July 13, instead of July 23.

Other free agency:

Annual raises on new contracts can now be as high as 8% (Bird or Early Bird contracts) or 5% (all other contracts), instead of 7.5% and 4.5%.
The amounts of the mid-level, bi-annual, and minimum salary exceptions are increasing significantly. Mid-level and bi-annual figures can be found here, while 2017/18’s minimum salaries can be found right here.
The “over-36 rule,” which affected a player who signed a contract that extended beyond his 36th birthday, has been changed to the over-38 rule. This change may be beneficial for players like Chris Paul and Paul Millsap.
NBA teams now have the ability to sign a pair of players apiece to two-way contracts. Full details on these new two-way contracts can be found here.
Two-way contracts and minimum salary contracts can be officially signed during the July moratorium.

Trades:

As of July 1, each team will be able to receive and send $5.1MM in trades for the 2017/18 league year. The limit for 2016/17 was $3.5MM. Cash paid and cash received in trades are two separate entities, meaning a team can’t exceed $5.1MM in cash paid by taking back money in another deal — if a team has paid $5.1MM and received $5.1MM, it can no longer use cash in trades.
The traded player exception will now allow non-taxpaying teams to take back up to 175% of the outgoing salary in a simultaneous trade. However, over-the-cap teams still can’t take back more than the outgoing salary plus $5MM for any amount up to $19.8MM, or more than 125% of the outgoing salary for any amount over $19.8MM.

Contract extensions:

Veteran players will now be eligible to sign contract extensions if two years have passed since they signed their last veteran contract. Previously, veterans didn’t become extension-eligible until three years had passed since their last signing date.
Veterans signing an extension are now eligible for an initial raise of up to 20%, instead of 7.5%.
The Designated Veteran Extension will be available for players who met a specific set of criteria related to years of experience, contract history, and All-NBA (or other award) honors. Stephen Curry, James Harden, and Russell Westbrook will be the players to watch for the DVE this summer.

Community Shootaround: Awards Show

June 26th, 2017 at 6:15pm CST by Dana Gauruder

In past seasons, the winners of all the major NBA awards would have been unveiled weeks ago. The league traditionally announced the biggest awards one-by-one while the playoffs were going on.

The regular season has been over for nearly 2 1/2 months but the league has kept the voting under wraps, except for announcing the finalists for each prize. We’ll finally learn tonight who captured the most votes for Rookie of the Year, Coach of the Year, Sixth Man of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year and Most Improved Player along with the biggest individual honor, the Most Valuable Player.

The NBA decided to hold back those announcements this year until after the draft by putting together a two-hour extravaganza on TNT.

All of the awards were based on regular-season performance. The two that hold the most intrigue are the Rookie of the Year and MVP selections. Joel Embiid posted by far the best stats among first-year players but appeared in just 31 games. We’ll find out if that was enough games in the voters’ minds or if his Sixers teammate Dario Saric or the Bucks’ Malcolm Brogdon brings home the hardware. Saric and Brogdon were the only unanimous selections for the All-Rookie Team, which was unveiled earlier today.

Russell Westbrook, James Harden and Kawhi Leonard are the three finalists for MVP but most people expect a tight race between Westbrook and Harden. Westbrook broke Oscar Robertson‘s triple-double record, while Harden put up monster numbers of his own after becoming the primary ballhandler in Mike D’Antoni‘s attack.

This leads us to our question of the day: Do you like the idea of having a postseason awards show following the playoffs or would you prefer that the NBA go back to announcing the major awards during the postseason?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to what you have to say.

NBA Minimum Salaries For 2017/18

June 26th, 2017 at 2:12pm CST by Luke Adams

While some NBA teams will head into free agency with more than enough cap room to add a maximum salary player, others clubs will be totally capped out. However, each of the NBA’s 30 clubs will be on common ground in one respect: No team will be ineligible to sign a player to a minimum salary contract.

Teams with cap room available will have a little more flexibility to sign players to longer-term minimum salary contracts, but over-the-cap clubs will still be able to use the minimum salary exception to add as many players as they want. Unlike other exceptions, such as the mid-level or the bi-annual, the minimum salary exception can be used multiple times, for contracts of up to two years.

Undrafted free agents and late second-round picks are often recipients of minimum salary contracts, but there are plenty of veterans who end up settling for the minimum too. Of course, because a player’s minimum salary is determined by how much NBA experience he has, many veterans will earn more than twice as much money as a rookie will in 2017/18 on a minimum salary contract.

Listed below are 2017/18’s minimum salary figures, sorted by years of NBA experience. If a player spent any time on an NBA club’s active regular season roster in a given season, he earned one year of experience. So any player with zero years of experience has not yet made his NBA debut.

Here’s the full breakdown:

Years of Experience	Salary
0	$815,615
1	$1,312,611
2	$1,471,382
3	$1,524,305
4	$1,577,230
5	$1,709,538
6	$1,841,849
7	$1,974,159
8	$2,106,470
9	$2,116,955
10+	$2,328,652

Because the NBA doesn’t want teams to avoid signing veteran players in favor of cheaper, younger players, the league reimburses clubs who sign veterans with three or more years of experience to one-year, minimum salary contracts. Those deals will only count against the cap – and against a team’s bank balance – for $1,471,382, the minimum salary for a player with two years of experience.

For instance, if David Lee – who has 12 years of NBA experience – signs a one-year, minimum salary contract with a new team, that team would only be charged $1,471,382 for Lee’s contract. He’d earn $2,328,652, but the NBA would make up the difference. This only applies to one-year contracts, rather than multiyear deals.

If a player signs a minimum salary contract after the regular season begins, he’ll earn a pro-rated portion of the amount listed above.

Categories:
Hoops Rumors Originals

Values Of 2017/18 Mid-Level, Bi-Annual Exceptions

June 26th, 2017 at 9:29am CST by Luke Adams

The salary cap for the 2017/18 NBA league year won’t be finalized and announced for several more days, which means we’re still relying on the NBA’s $99MM projection when we calculate the value of maximum salary contract or attempt to determine how much cap room teams will have.

However, while some contract figures won’t be finalized until we know where the salary cap ultimately lands for 2017/18, others have already been established. In the case of the mid-level, bi-annual, and room exceptions, the NBA’s latest Collective Bargaining Agreement includes specific figures for the ’17/18 season, so we already know what the values of those exceptions will be next year.

Listed below are the maximum annual and total values of each of these exceptions, along with a brief explanation of how they work and which teams will have access to them.

Mid-Level Exception (Non-Taxpayer):

Year	Salary
2017/18	$8,406,000
2018/19	$8,826,300
2019/20	$9,246,600
2020/21	$9,666,900
Total	$36,145,800

The non-taxpayer mid-level exception is the primary tool available for over-the-cap teams to add free agents. As long as a team hasn’t dipped below the cap and doesn’t go over the tax apron (currently projected to be $127MM) at all, it can use this MLE, which runs for up to four years with 5% annual raises.

In 2016/17, this exception was only worth up to $5,628,000 in year one, so it will rise in value significantly next season. That makes it a legitimate option to land second- or third-tier free agents who would have required cap room to sign in the past.

Mid-Level Exception (Taxpayer):

Year	Salary
2017/18	$5,192,000
2018/19	$5,451,600
2019/20	$5,711,200
Total	$16,354,800

If an over-the-cap team currently projects to be a taxpayer, or expects to move into tax territory later in the 2017/18 season, it will have access to this smaller mid-level exception for taxpaying teams. If a team uses more than $5.192MM of its mid-level exception, it is forbidden from surpassing the tax apron (projected at $127MM) at any time during the league year. So even if a team isn’t above the apron when it uses its MLE, it might make sense to play it safe by avoiding using the full MLE and imposing a hard cap.

In 2016/17, the taxpayer mid-level exception – which was only used by the Cavs – was worth $3,477,000. The taxpayer MLE can be used to sign a player for up to three years, with 5% annual raises.

Room Exception:

Year	Salary
2017/18	$4,328,000
2018/19	$4,544,400
Total	$8,872,400

Although this is also a mid-level exception of sorts, it’s colloquially known as the “room” exception, since it’s only available to teams that have used cap room. If a club goes under the cap, it loses its full mid-level exception, but gets this smaller room exception, which allows the team to go over the cap to sign a player, once the team has used up all its cap space.

In 2016/17, this exception was worth $2,898,000, and resulted in some valuable signings, including Seth Curry (Mavericks), Dion Waiters (Heat), Zaza Pachulia (Warriors), and Nene (Rockets). It can be used to sign players for up to two years, with a 5% raise for the second season.

Bi-Annual Exception:

Year	Salary
2017/18	$3,290,000
2018/19	$3,454,500
Total	$6,744,500

The bi-annual exception, as its name suggests, is only available to teams once every two years. Of the NBA’s 30 clubs, only the Clippers used it in 2016/17, signing Luc Mbah a Moute to a deal that started at $2,203,000. That means the league’s other 29 teams could theoretically use it this season.

Still, even if a team didn’t use its BAE in ’16/17, that club doesn’t necessarily have access to it for the coming year. As is the case with the non-taxpayer MLE, this exception disappears once a team goes under the cap. It’s also not available to teams over the tax apron — using the BAE creates a hard cap at the apron.

The BAE can be used to sign players for up to two years, with a 5% raise after year one.

Categories:
Hoops Rumors Originals

Weekly Mailbag: 6/19/17 – 6/25/17

June 25th, 2017 at 4:01pm CST by Arthur Hill

We have an opportunity for you to hit us up with your questions in this, our weekly mailbag feature. Have a question regarding player movement, the salary cap or the NBA draft? Drop us a line at HoopsRumorsMailbag@Gmail.com. Here are this week’s inquiries:

What happens to LaMarcus Aldridge? — Terrance, via Twitter

Words like “unhappy” and “frustrated” were used this week to describe Aldridge, who signed with San Antonio two years ago in hopes of winning a title, but now appears to be looking for a way out of town. The Spurs made some calls ahead of the draft to see if they could land a top 10 pick in exchange for Aldridge, but came away empty. That’s not surprising, as lottery teams in the midst of rebuilding don’t have much need for a 31-year-old who might be a short-term rental. If San Antonio can get a commitment from Chris Paul, look for Aldridge and his $21.46MM contract to be shipped somewhere, along with a generous sweetener, to clear cap room. More likely, he spends another unhappy season with the Spurs, then opts out next summer.

Who will Gordon Hayward sign with? — Peter Chiu, via Twitter

The Celtics and Heat are the top threats to the Jazz. Boston offers an instant contender, along with a reunion with his college coach, Brad Stevens. Miami has a clear need at small forward, a history of swinging for the fences in free agency and no state income tax, which lessen’s Utah’s financial advantage. It’s going to be interesting to watch how many big-name free agents leave the Western Conference over the next few years if the Warriors continue to dominate. Hayward might lean that way, but he reportedly likes the security of a five-year deal that only the Jazz can offer. The best guess is he stays in Utah.

The Timberwolves were clearly the draft day winners with the acquisition of Jimmy Butler. With Butler in the fold, is Minnesota a legitimate free agent destination? If so, what are some potential free agent targets to complement the trio of Butler, Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins? — Matt Trapp

The Wolves plan to pursue point guards, with Kyle Lowry as the top choice, followed by Jrue Holiday, Jeff Teague and George Hill. Lowry will demand a maximum deal for sure, and the others will be at least close. Minnesota needs to shed roughly $10MM in salary to be able to afford that, and the obvious candidate is Ricky Rubio, who will make $14.25MM next season. If they can’t find a taker for Rubio and don’t want to part with Gorgui Dieng, the Wolves will have to find someone willing to deal for Cole Aldrich ($7.3MM) and Jordan Hill (a little more than $4M).

Five Key Offseason Questions: Golden State Warriors

June 25th, 2017 at 1:38pm CST by Luke Adams

The Warriors set a new NBA record by winning 73 regular-season games in 2015/16, but 2016/17 was truly their scorched-earth season. Golden State kicked off the NBA’s new league year last summer by landing Kevin Durant, the top free agent on the market, then cruised to a 67-win regular season and turned it up another notch in the playoffs — the Dubs won 16 of 17 postseason contests en route to their second title in three years.

In the wake of the Warriors’ NBA Finals win over the Cavaliers, NBA observers fretted over Golden State’s dominance, wondering if it’s even worth it for 80% of the league’s teams to make win-now moves this summer. That means this offseason should be a cakewalk for the Warriors, right? Well… maybe not. Although they don’t expect to lose any stars, the Dubs only have five players under contract heading into July, so there’s still plenty of work to do.

Here are five key questions facing the Warriors this offseason:

1. Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant will definitely be back, right?

Yes. As fun it would be to have either of these guys lining up a handful of free agent meetings like Durant did last July, they’re not going anywhere. Both former MVPs will technically become unrestricted free agents on July 1, but they’ll quickly come to terms on new deals with the Warriors. It’s just a matter of figuring out what those new agreements will look like.

For Curry, who is eligible for a Designated Veteran Extension, there’s no reason to think that the Warriors will offer him any less than the full super-max, which currently projects to pay him just over $200MM for five years. The two-time MVP has been one of the NBA’s best bargains on his current four-year, $44MM contract, and the Warriors won’t gain any additional cap flexibility by asking him to accept less than the max.

Durant’s case is a little trickier, but it sounds like he’s willing to settle for less than a maximum salary contract in 2017/18. A true max for Durant is currently projected to be worth $34.5MM next season, but the Warriors would have to create cap room to make such a deal work. By signing another short-term deal and settling instead for about $31.85MM, a 20% raise on last year’s salary, the 28-year-old would let the Warriors to stay over the cap. That would allow the team to hang onto its Bird rights for key contributors like Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston.

2. So will Iguodala and Livingston be back too?

Neither Iguodala nor Livingston is a mortal lock to return, but assuming Durant signs on for a 20% raise, the Warriors have no limitations on what they could offer the duo. It would simply be a matter of determining how high they’re willing to go for players who will be, at best, the fifth and sixth options on the roster.

While Iguodala is probably the better bet to re-sign, he’ll receive plenty of interest in free agency, and a recent report suggested that he may receive offers worth upwards of $20MM annually. The same report indicated that Iguodala will seriously consider other suitors, and if they’re willing to go that high, he’d be crazy not to. But all indications are that he loves playing in Golden State, so if the Warriors are willing to make a competitive offer – even if it’s not the biggest offer – I expect the veteran swingman will be back.

Livingston may not be as high a priority for the Warriors, though he figures to be less expensive than Iguodala. The veteran point guard will turn 32 in September, making this summer one of his last chances at a big payday. If another team makes an offer worth the full mid-level exception (approximately $8.4MM) for two or three years, I could see the Warriors bidding him farewell. If Golden State could get him back for something in the range of $5-6MM per year, a return would be more realistic.

3. Who else will be along for the ride?

Golden State has several more rotation players eligible for free agency, including Zaza Pachulia, David West, JaVale McGee, and Ian Clark. However, the Warriors don’t have Bird rights for most of those players, limiting their ability to offer raises.

The Warriors would certainly like to have some of those players back, but they won’t break the bank for any of them, and it’s not clear if veterans like Pachulia and West – having won the championship they were chasing – will continue to stick around at a discounted rate. Certainly, a younger player like Clark should find a larger payday elsewhere.

If the Warriors’ current contributors don’t want to accept discounts, the team should have no problem finding players that will. Golden State will head into the 2017/18 as a massive favorite to win next year’s title, and free agents in search of a championship will want to get on the fun. Even if Pachulia and West aren’t back, there will likely be new versions of that type of veteran willing to come on board for the minimum.

4. Will Steve Kerr be good to go to start the 2017/18 season?

Kerr’s back issues forced him to miss a good chunk of the postseason this spring, which was just about the only thing that went wrong for the Warriors during the playoffs. The Golden State head coach was able to return to the sidelines for the club during the NBA Finals, and GM Bob Myers said after winning that series that there’s “no doubt” will take his place on the bench again next season. Kerr will be given time off this summer to explore various options for relieving his back pain, and to find answers for why he’s still experiencing issues related to old procedures.

The Warriors showed no signs of slowing down when Mike Brown took the reins during the postseason, and given the talent on their roster, they might still win 60 games with Riley Curry as their head coach. But Kerr has been an impressive presence and leader in Golden State, and it’d be great to see him get to a point where he can avoid another health-related hiatus down the road.

5. How long will the Warriors’ reign last?

Okay, so this isn’t a question that the Warriors can – or should – answer this offseason. But with mega-contracts for Curry and Durant around the corner, there’s a good chance the club dips into luxury-tax territory for the first time this summer, especially if Iguodala and Livingston return.

Team ownership will be fine with pay those penalties in order to keep a championship roster intact, but some long-term planning will be required to determine how long the Warriors can be a taxpayer and how deep into the tax they’re willing to go. Klay Thompson will be up for a mega-contract of his own in 2019 and Draymond Green‘s next payday will come in 2020.

The Warriors won’t have to make decisions on those guys yet, but if they plan to keep them both beyond their current deals, that may affect this offseason’s moves — the club may look to avoid signing players (besides Curry and Durant) for longer than two years, with another max salary (for Thompson) on tap for that third year.

These are first-world NBA problems, but a team that aggressively pursued Durant after winning 73 games is exactly the sort of franchise that will already be thinking about how to win the next five or six titles — not just the next one or two.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Warriors financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Klay Thompson ($17,826,150)
Draymond Green ($16,400,000)
Kevon Looney ($1,471,382)
Damian Jones ($1,312,611)
Patrick McCaw ($1,312,611)
Jason Thompson ($945,126) — Waived via stretch provision.
Total: $39,267,880

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

None

Restricted Free Agents

James Michael McAdoo ($1,724,305 qualifying offer / $1,724,305 cap hold)
Total: $1,724,305

Cap Holds

Kevin Durant ($31,848,120) — Played option declined.
Stephen Curry ($18,168,539)
Andre Iguodala ($16,697,052)
Shaun Livingston ($10,986,655)
Zaza Pachulia ($3,477,600)
Matt Barnes ($1,471,382)
Ian Clark ($1,471,382)
JaVale McGee ($1,471,382)
David West ($1,471,382)
Total: $87,063,494

Projected Salary Cap: $99,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $5,637,386

Our max cap room scenario for the Warriors assumes that the Warriors renounce all their free agents except for Curry and Durant. Five guaranteed salaries, along with cap holds for Curry, Durant, and five empty roster rosters, would bring team salary to $93,362,614. In that scenario, the team could afford a max contract for Durant, but wouldn’t have any cap room left to sign other players. The more likely outcome – which would give the team a better chance to re-sign Iguodala and Livingston – involves staying over the cap and Durant accepting a 20% raise rather than a true max salary.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Community Shootaround: Jimmy Butler Trade

June 24th, 2017 at 9:56pm CST by Arthur Hill

No matter how the picks pan out, draft night 2017 will be remembered for the Jimmy Butler trade.

After more than a year of rumors, the Bulls pulled the trigger on a deal, sending Butler and the No. 16 pick to Minnesota in exchange for Zach LaVine, Kris Dunn and the No. 7 selection. Conventional wisdom says the trade changes the course of both franchises, with the Wolves vaulting to contender status in the West while the Bulls embark on a rebuilding project.

It was remarkably similar to a proposal between the teams a year ago, and Chicago fans might have been much happier if the deal had been completed on draft night 2016. LaVine would have been more appealing before his season-ending ACL tear in February, and Dunn was considered the top point guard in the draft at the time. His stock has fallen considerably after a lackluster rookie season in which he averaged 3.8 points per game and shot 38% from the field.

A key for the Bulls was the seventh pick, which they used on Lauri Markkanen, a stretch four out of Arizona. Chicago was 26th in the league in 3-point percentage this season and needs more shooters to fit into coach Fred Hoiberg’s preferred offense. Bulls management has been criticized for surrendering the 16th choice, which Minnesota used to grab Creighton center Justin Patton, but the Wolves reportedly wouldn’t have done the trade without that pick.

If the Bulls are rebuilding, they still have a long way to go. Chicago will have a starting backcourt with a combined age of 66 if it brings back Rajon Rondo (31) to team with Dwyane Wade (35), who has already announced his intention to opt in for next season.

The Bulls have until Friday to make a decision on Rondo, whose $13.397MM salary for next season only has a $3MM guarantee through the end of June. If they opt to release or trade Rondo, the remaining point guards are on the roster are Cameron Payne, who spent much of his time in the D-League after being acquired in February, Jerian Grant, who was briefly handed the starting role this season, and Isaiah Canaan, a journeyman shooter. There’s also, Dunn, of course, and free agent Michael Carter-Williams.

If the plan is to build around LaVine and Markkanen, there are very few young stars on the roster to join them. Starting center Robin Lopez turned 29 in April, and Nikola Mirotic and Cristiano Felicio are both free agents.

So considering the current makeup of the Bulls’ roster, did they get enough for their franchise player? Please leave your comments below. We look forward to what you have to say.

Hoops Rumors Originals: 6/17/17 – 6/24/17

June 24th, 2017 at 2:25pm CST by Joshua Fischman

Every week, the Hoops Rumors writing team compiles original content to complement our news feed. Here are some of our favorite segments and features from the past seven days:

Here are the 2017 NBA Offseason Trades thus far.
Luke Adams and Arthur Hill alternated picks in a mock first round ahead of Thursday’s draft.
Updated Maximum Salary Projections for 2017/18 can be found here.
Here are the Projected Rookie Contracts for 2017 First Round Picks.
Here are the NBA G League Affiliations for 2017/18.
We offer seven more installments in our Five Key Offseason Questions series with the Mavericks, Knicks, Magic, Suns, Pelicans, Hornets, Celtics, and Cavaliers. The entire series can be found here, minus the forthcoming Warriors edition.
Arthur Hill discusses which stars could be traded on draft night, draftee comparisons, and the likelihood of a specific trade in his weekly Sunday mailbag. Submit your questions via Twitter (@HoopsRumors) or by sending us an email (hoopsrumorsmailbag@gmail.com).
In his weekly Hoops Links roundup of interesting articles from around the blogosphere, Austin Kent shares pieces on the red carpet being laid out for the Nets‘ new point guard, D’Angelo Russell, the importance of remaining skeptical about unsubstantiated rumors, and the Spurs going for the fences in free agency.
Check out our free Trade Rumors app available for IOS and Android.
Here are the questions we asked you in our Community Shootaround discussions this week:
- Is communication necessary between a star player and his owner?
- Who were the winners and losers of the 2017 NBA Draft?

Categories:
Hoops Rumors Originals

Five Key Offseason Questions: Cleveland Cavaliers

June 24th, 2017 at 10:59am CST by Luke Adams

Coming off their third consecutive appearance in the NBA Finals, the Cavaliers are in a very unusual spot. Cleveland went 12-1 against Eastern Conference foes in the playoffs, asserting its dominance in the conference once again, but there’s still a sense that the team has to shake things up and make major moves this offseason in order to be able to truly compete with the Warriors.

For a team led by LeBron James, who has appeared in seven consecutive Finals, anything short of a championship has become a letdown. With LeBron once again just a year from potential free agency, there will be tremendous pressure on the Cavaliers’ front office this summer to make tangible upgrades to a roster that’s already extremely talented — not to mention capped out.

Here are five key questions facing the Cavs this offseason:

1. Who’s running the show?

The lucrative contracts received by the likes of Tristan Thompson and J.R. Smith in recent years make it easy to joke that LeBron is the general manager in Cleveland. But the Cavs were actually fairly adept at adding talent in creative ways under David Griffin, generating and making use of trade exceptions, and finessing the cap despite being well over the tax line. Griffin and the front office deserve credit for that.

Heading into the 2017 free agent period though, Griffin is no longer making the team’s basketball decisions, having been unable to reach a new deal with owner Dan Gilbert. Senior VP Trent Redden is out as well, leaving assistant GM Koby Altman and perhaps Gilbert himself as the ones reportedly burning up the phone lines in search of a blockbuster trade.

Not every one of Griffin’s decisions as GM was optimal, and the Cavs are in a tough spot with the salary cap heading into 2017/18. But he’s a smart guy who was intimately familiar with the Cavs’ roster and knew what sort of moves were possible. It’s not clear yet if the same can be said for Chauncey Billups, who is reportedly the frontrunner to become the club’s new president of basketball operations.

Billups has no front office experience, and would likely need to be paired with an experienced executive who could step into the GM role. It’s possible that could work in the long-term, but the fact that it remains up in the air at this point in the summer – Billups is reportedly still considering an offer from Cleveland – isn’t a great sign.

2. How can the Cavaliers add an impact player in a trade?

The Cavs’ ideal scenario would be to add a fourth impact player to their core of James, Kevin Love, and Kyrie Irving, using complementary pieces in a trade. That’s a nice thought, but probably an unrealistic one.

Beyond their three stars, the Cavs’ top contracts include Thompson ($16.4MM in 2017/18), Smith ($13.76MM), Iman Shumpert ($10.34MM), and Channing Frye ($7.42MM). Outside of Frye’s deal, those contracts all have multiple years left on them, and they’re not exactly bargains. Thompson, Smith, and Shumpert are all effective players when they’re playing well, but they’ve has consistency issues. And at those prices, teams might be better off just signing a free agent instead.

The Cavs will still look to include those guys – particularly Shumpert and Frye – in potential trades, but if they want to make a major move, their most logical trade candidate is Love. The former Timberwolf looked more at home in Cleveland in 2016/17 than he had during his first couple years with the team, but he’s the most expendable piece of the Cavs’ “big three,” especially if he could be turned into a top-tier, two-way player like Paul George.

There have been no indications that the rebuilding Pacers want to acquire a pricey veteran like Love, which is why we heard so many rumors last week about the Cavs exploring a potential three-way deal. In such a scenario, Love would be sent to that third team, which in turn would send young players and/or picks to Indiana. It’s an interesting idea, and I believe George would make the Cavs a more versatile and more dangerous team. At this point though, it doesn’t seem like there’s a ton of traction on that front.

3. If the Cavs trade one of their big three, will it definitely be Love and not Irving?

It certainly looks that way. Sam Amico of Amico Hoops reported on Thursday that the Pacers and Bulls tried to insist on Irving rather than Love in a possible deal for George or Jimmy Butler, at which point the Cavs “quickly lost interest.” It’s hard to blame them for that.

All indications are that the Cavs view Irving as a cornerstone piece who can become the team’s franchise player as LeBron enters the tail end of his career. For Cleveland to consider moving its standout point guard, it would have to be a deal for a star who meets that same criteria, and there simply aren’t that many possible franchise players out there. Ones who are as young as Irving (25) and on favorable long-term contracts are even rarer.

4. Will the Cavs be able to use free agency to add any useful pieces?

One advantage of being a perennial title contender is that the Cavs may have a chance to sign solid free agents at a reduced rate. While that has been more common for teams like the Spurs and Warriors in the last couple years (we see you, David West), there may be productive free agents willing to sign on with the Cavs for the minimum to pursue a potential title.

Unfortunately for Cleveland, the club won’t have much more than the minimum to use on free agents this summer. Assuming they don’t shed salary to get out of tax territory, which would be a long shot, the Cavs will lose their full mid-level exception and their bi-annual exception, as well as their ability to acquire a free agent via sign-and-trade, leaving them with the taxpayer mid-level exception. That MLE will be worth $5.192MM and can be used to sign contracts up to three years.

That’s a useful little piece, and should be enough to add a solid rotation player, but there’s no guarantee that team ownership is prepared to use it. With the Cavaliers poised to face repeater tax penalties in 2017/18, a $5.192MM contract would cost the club exponentially more in taxes — the exact amount depends on how far over the tax the Cavs are, but repeater penalties start at $2.50 per dollar spent over the tax, and only increase from there. If the Cavs intend to use that MLE, they’ll have to be very confident that the player they’re signing is worth it, because he’ll be extremely expensive.

5. Is it time to start worrying about LeBron’s long-term future in Cleveland?

In the wake of the Cavs’ Finals loss, rumblings about James possibly bolting Cleveland again in 2018 have grown louder. And it’s not just idle speculation from pundits — reliable reporters like Adrian Wojnarowski of The Vertical have said the Cavs aren’t just assuming LeBron will remain in Cleveland beyond his current deal, and that a move to an L.A. team is “very much in play.”

It may be time for the Cavs to start worrying, but it’s not time for them to start panicking. Forcing win-now moves to appease LeBron could backfire, as they did during his first stint in Cleveland. By the time James left the Cavs in 2010, the team’s roster was stocked with overpaid, underperforming veterans, leaving little flexibility to acquire real help.

While it may seem like the Cavs are nearing that territory this time around too, Irving and Love are far more effective than any player on the 2009/10 roster was, and none of the team’s current contracts is nearly as bad as Shaquille O’Neal‘s (a 38-year-old Shaq earned $20MM in ’09/10, when the cap was $57.7MM).

Still, it won’t be easy for the Cavs to strike the right balance this offseason — their goal is to add immediate help to give LeBron a chance to knock off the Warriors next summer, without taking on the sort of long-term commitments that will compromise their ability to be flexible in two or three years. And, oh yeah, Gilbert probably wouldn’t mind reducing his tax bill a little going forward.

Good luck to the next Cavs’ next head of basketball operations, who figures to have one of the toughest jobs in the NBA.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Cavaliers financially:

Guaranteed Salary

LeBron James ($33,285,709)
Kevin Love ($22,642,350)
Kyrie Irving ($18,868,626)
Tristan Thompson ($16,400,000)
J.R. Smith ($13,760,000)
Iman Shumpert ($10,337,079)
Channing Frye ($7,420,912)
Richard Jefferson ($2,500,000)
Kay Felder ($456,529) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below.¹
Total: $125,671,205

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Edy Tavares ($1,471,382)
Kay Felder ($856,082) — Partial guarantee. Guaranteed portion noted above.¹
Total: $2,327,464

Restricted Free Agents

None

Cap Holds

Kyle Korver ($9,954,930)
Dahntay Jones ($1,471,382)
James Jones ($1,471,382)
Deron Williams ($1,471,382)
Derrick Williams ($1,471,382)
Total: $15,840,458

Trade Exceptions

Mike Dunleavy TPE ($4,837,500) — Expires 1/17/18
Mo Williams TPE ($2,194,500) — Expires 1/7/18
Sasha Kaun TPE ($1,333,420) — Expires 7/15/17
Chris Andersen TPE ($980,431) — Expires 2/13/18

Projected Salary Cap: $99,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: –$29,933,665

The Cavaliers’ eight guaranteed contracts, plus four cap charges for empty roster spots, bring the total team salary to $128,933,665. Considering the luxury tax line is currently projected to be around $119MM, the Cavs have virtually no way to get below the cap this summer unless they gut their roster, and will likely end up well into the tax again.

Footnotes:

Felder’s salary won’t become fully guaranteed until January 10.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Projected Rookie Contracts For 2017 First Round Picks

June 23rd, 2017 at 2:22pm CST by Luke Adams

As we explained in May when we published the rookie scale salary figures for 2017/18, the value of the contracts for this year’s first round picks depend on where they’re drafted. The NBA’s rookie scale for 2017/18 – which won’t change between now and next month, no matter where the salary cap lands – will determine what each player makes.

Each first round pick who signs an NBA contract this season will ink a four-year deal with two guaranteed seasons and team options on the third and fourth years. Players are eligible to sign for up to 120% of the rookie scale amount, or as little as 80% of that amount. However, virtually every rookie contract comes in at 120%. In fact, the new Collective Bargaining Agreement even alters the rules so that cap holds for first round picks count as 120% of the rookie amount now.

So even though the rookie scale amount for the No. 1 overall pick in 2017/18 is $5,855,200, Markelle Fultz‘s cap hold for the Sixers will be $7,026,240 — that’s 120% of his rookie scale figure, and the amount he’ll almost certainly receive in year one of his new NBA deal.

Listed below are this year’s top 30 picks, along with their projected rookie salaries, assuming they sign for 120% of their rookie scale amount. The total value of these contracts assumes that the third- and fourth-year team options will be exercised.

Additionally, we’ve listed the figures for players like Anzejs Pasecniks, even though he’s not expected to come to the NBA immediately. The rookie salaries for first round picks who are stashed overseas will look slightly different if they sign a year a two from now.

Here are this year’s expected rookie scale contracts:

(Click here for full-sized chart)

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