Hoops Rumors Originals

Hoops Rumors’ 2017 NBA Mock Draft

June 20th, 2017 at 12:47pm CST by Hoops Rumors

With the 2017 NBA draft just two days away, it’s time to reveal Hoops Rumors’ own mock draft. Arthur Hill and Luke Adams of Hoops Rumors have tackled the 2017 first round, alternating picks and providing their thoughts and rationale for each selection.

Our mock draft doesn’t feature trades, outside of the ones that have already been finalized, such as the Sixers‘ acquisition of the No. 1 overall pick. It could be an active draft night, so Thursday’s night board may end up looking much different than what we’ve predicted here. After checking out our picks, be sure to head to the comments section to weigh in with your own thoughts, opinions, and predictions.

Let’s dive in…

1. Philadelphia 76ers: Markelle Fultz, PG (Washington)

AH: This is the only sure thing on what is shaping up to be an unpredictable night. The Sixers gave up a valuable asset to acquire Fultz in hopes of forming a new young Big Three with Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons. It’s hard to find a scout that isn’t impressed by Fultz, who can score, defend, rebound and run the offense.

2. Los Angeles Lakers: Lonzo Ball, PG (UCLA)

LA: The Lakers landing the No. 2 pick in last month’s draft lottery looked like a dream scenario for Ball and his father LaVar, who wanted Lonzo to land in Los Angeles all along. The Lakers have made Ball sweat it out since then, with Josh Jackson and De’Aaron Fox both reportedly receiving serious consideration. But I think Ball’s playmaking ability and potential star power will be too much for the team to pass up.

3. Boston Celtics: Josh Jackson, SF (Kansas)

AH: The Celtics will be getting plenty of phone calls from teams that would like a shot at Jackson, Fox, or Jayson Tatum. Assuming Boston keeps the pick, the safest bet is probably Jackson, a super-athletic defender who is versatile enough to handle either forward position.

4. Phoenix Suns: Jayson Tatum, SF (Duke)

LA: The Suns have no shortage of talented guards, led by Devin Booker, and dedicated last year’s two lottery picks to a pair of bigs in Dragan Bender and Marquese Chriss. This time around, it makes sense for Phoenix to add a player like Tatum, who looks like a future 20-PPG scorer on the wing.

5. Sacramento Kings: De’Aaron Fox, PG (Kentucky)

AH: Sacramento fills its most pressing need without having to trade up. Fox is blessed with lightning-like speed that he uses on both offense and defense, and he’ll be the best point guard to wear a Kings uniform in many years. He cemented his reputation when he outplayed Ball in the NCAA Tournament, showing he has the skill to not only be a good NBA player but possibly a future All-Star.

6. Orlando Magic: Jonathan Isaac, F (Florida State)

LA: Orlando’s new front office, led by former Raptors GM Jeff Weltman and former Bucks GM John Hammond, values length, athleticism, and versatility. Of the players available in this spot, Isaac is the one that most clearly checks all those boxes, making him a good fit for the Magic.

7. Minnesota Timberwolves: Malik Monk, G (Kentucky)

AH: Bench scoring and three-point shooting were major issues this season for the Wolves. Kentucky’s Monk can help solve both of those problems, stretching defenses as well as anyone in the draft. Monk is a bit of a tweener at 6’3″, but if used properly he can be a very dangerous weapon in Minnesota.

8. New York Knicks: Frank Ntilikina, PG (France)

LA: With Monk off the board here, the Knicks are in good position to nab a point guard, and I suspect they may lean toward Ntilikina over Dennis Smith Jr.. Ntilikina, who doesn’t turn 19 until December, won’t make an impact immediately, but his long-term potential is tantalizing if the Knicks are willing to be patient.

9. Dallas Mavericks: Dennis Smith Jr., PG (North Carolina State)

AH: This is an excellent draft for teams in need of point guards. Dallas takes the fifth one available and gets a possible future star in Smith. Another elite player on a poor college team, Smith has drawn comparisons to Steve Francis and Stephon Marbury as offensively gifted point guards who don’t do enough other things to help teams win. Dallas would be the perfect environment for a prospect like that, as coach Rick Carlisle would tutor Smith on how to become a smart and effective NBA player.

10. Sacramento Kings: Lauri Markkanen, PF (Arizona)

LA: Having scooped up their point guard of the future at No. 5, the Kings can turn their attention to the frontcourt with this pick. Markkanen’s ability to play the stretch four makes him an intriguing potential complement to Willie Cauley-Stein up front for Sacramento.

11. Charlotte Hornets: Donovan Mitchell, SG (Louisville)

AH: The Pistons reportedly covet this 6’3″ combo guard out of Louisville, whose draft stock has risen considerably since the season ended. If Mitchell winds up in Charlotte, the Hornets will be getting a defensive specialist with enough of an offensive game to contribute right away. He could be an effective backup to Kemba Walker next season and eventually carve out a larger role in the Hornets’ backcourt.

12. Detroit Pistons: Luke Kennard, SG (Duke)

LA: While I don’t expect the Pistons to let Kentavious Caldwell-Pope get away in free agency, Kennard would provide a nice insurance policy. Even with KCP in the mix, Detroit’s roster isn’t stacked with three-point shooters, so Kennard would give the team another threat from the outside. He’s not a complete two-way player – and may never be – but he’s capable of making an immediate impact on offense.

13. Denver Nuggets: Zach Collins, F/C (Gonzaga)

AH: The freshman from Gonzaga saw limited playing time during the season — just 17.2 minutes per game — but showed off his skills as the Zags made a run to the NCAA title game. At 6’10”, he can rebound, block shots and shoot from the outside, making him a promising frontcourt partner for Nikola Jokic. Trade rumors have swirled around Kenneth Faried for a couple of years, and Collins would be a nice replacement if Denver ships Faried out of town.

14. Miami Heat: OG Anunoby, F (Indiana)

LA: Pat Riley and the Heat aren’t likely to worry much about a player’s ability to contribute in his rookie season if his long-term potential is strong. That makes Miami a possible landing spot for Anunoby, who is expected to miss at least the first month or two of the 2017/18 season, if not more, as he recovers from a knee injury. He and Justise Winslow would make life very difficult for perimeter scorers facing the Heat.

15. Portland Trail Blazers: Harry Giles, C (Duke)

AH: Giles came to Duke last season as one of the most heralded players in the nation, but medical problems with both knees make him a risky proposition for whoever drafts him. With three picks in the first round, Portland is in a good position to gamble. With luxury tax concerns looming over next season, the Blazers are going to have to deal away some established players, and Giles, if he stays healthy, is a good candidate to take their place.

16. Chicago Bulls: Justin Jackson, SF (North Carolina)

LA: The Bulls’ approach to the draft may hinge somewhat on what happens – or at least what the team expects to happen – with Jimmy Butler and Dwyane Wade. If Wade doesn’t return, or if the Bulls decide to trade Butler, Jackson is the sort of player who could assume some scoring responsibilities. His offensive game – particularly his three-point shot – improved greatly during his junior year at UNC.

17. Milwaukee Bucks: Ike Anigbogu, C (UCLA)

AH: Milwaukee has a nice collection of young talent, but there’s not a physical, rebounding, rim-protecting center on the roster. That’s a perfect description of Anigbogu, who would bring an interior toughness that the Bucks currently lack. He may never be a scorer, but he adds an important component as Milwaukee looks to continue its climb up the Eastern Conference standings.

18. Indiana Pacers: John Collins, PF (Wake Forest)

LA: With the Pacers potentially entering a rebuilding and asset-accumulating phase, it makes sense for the club to add the best player available, regardless of position. At this point in the draft, that might mean nabbing Collins, who looks capable of developing into a reliable rebounder and shot-blocker up front.

19. Atlanta Hawks: Jarrett Allen, C (Texas)

AH: The Texas freshman fits very well with the direction that the league is headed. At 6’11”, he’s not a physical player, but he gets up and down the court very well and will get a lot of points from pure athleticism. The Hawks will need frontcourt help even if they re-sign Paul Millsap, and Allen would be a good investment in the future.

20. Portland Trail Blazers: Terrance Ferguson, SG (Australia)

LA: There’s a good chance the Blazers ultimately decide to trade this pick, but if they keep it, it would be a nice spot to roll the dice on someone like Ferguson. Reports have suggested that Ferguson is all over the place on teams’ draft boards, but at his best, he looks like an explosive athlete capable of contributing on both ends of the court.

21. Oklahoma City Thunder: Justin Patton, C (Creighton)

AH: Oklahoma City will pay more than $40MM next season — and nearly $43MM in 2018/19 — to the combination of Stephen Adams and Enes Kanter. The wise move would be to trade one of them, and Patton would provide a viable replacement if that happens. The seven-footer out of Creighton averaged nearly 1.5 blocks per game during his lone season in college and showed speed and athleticism that would fit in well with OKC.

22. Brooklyn Nets: Andzejs Pasecniks, C (Spain)

LA: With two first-round picks in hand and no rush to contend immediately, the Nets can afford to invest in an international player who may not arrive stateside right away. Pasecniks wouldn’t even be the most notable Latvian big man in town, but he has a solid skill-set for a seven-footer, and has seen his stock rising as of late.

23. Toronto Raptors: Isaiah Hartenstein, F/C (Lithuania)

AH: If Toronto re-signs Kyle Lowry this summer, it will be difficult to keep both Serge Ibaka and Patrick Patterson. That creates an opening for a player like Hartenstein, who brings a soft scoring touch to go with his seven-foot size. Playing in Germany, he has been on a professional strength and conditioning program and is a solid 250 pounds, making him more ready for the rigors of the NBA than some of his contemporaries.

24. Utah Jazz: Jawun Evans, PG (Oklahoma State)

LA: The Jazz were overloaded at the point guard position in 2016/17, but George Hill and Shelvin Mack are free agents, while Dante Exum and Raul Neto are entering contract years. Presumably, not all of those players are in Utah’s long-term plans, so adding a talented ball-handler like Evans wouldn’t necessarily create a logjam.

25. Orlando Magic: Bam Adebayo, C (Kentucky)

AH: Like the Thunder, Orlando is top-heavy with big men, with Bismack Biyombo and Nikola Vucevic combining to make more than $29MM over each of the next two seasons. The new management team will want to cut some of that salary, creating a need for a player like Adebayo. A bit undersized at 6’9″, the freshman showed a surprising scoring touch at Kentucky, although he needs to expand his shooting range. He has no problem doing the dirty work — blocking shots, setting screens and running the floor to get baskets in transition.

26. Portland Trail Blazers: Semi Ojeleye, F (SMU)

LA: If the Trail Blazers keep all three of their first-rounders, which seems unlikely, at least one of their picks will probably be a draft-and-stash prospect. However, there aren’t many highly-regarded international players in this draft class, so I have Portland opting instead for Ojeleye, a talented scorer and shooter who could make an immediate impact and provide depth if the club moves one of its more expensive swingmen.

27. Brooklyn Nets: Ivan Rabb, F/C (California)

AH: Brooklyn has shown a willingness to gamble in the first round, and Rabb, once a highly regarded prospect, is a gamble worth taking. The 6’10” sophomore might have been a lottery pick a year ago, but decided to spend another season at California and hurt his cause with a disappointing performance. The Nets need more big men who can score after trading away Thaddeus Young before the start of last season. Rabb was an effective post-up scorer in college and could be a late-round gem for Brooklyn.

28. Los Angeles Lakers: T.J. Leaf, PF (UCLA)

LA: The Lakers’ current frontcourt, which features players like Julius Randle, Larry Nance Jr., Ivica Zubac, and Timofey Mozgov, lacks a player capable of really stretching the floor. Leaf, who made an impressive 46.6% of his three-pointers in his first and only college season, has that ability — and joining the Lakers would reunite him with his UCLA teammate and point guard Lonzo Ball.

29. San Antonio Spurs: Frank Jackson, G (Duke)

AH: Manu Ginobili may retire, Patty Mills is a free agent and Tony Parker may not be physically ready for the start of next season. The Spurs need backcourt help, especially if their dream of signing Chris Paul doesn’t pan out. Jackson is a nice start, a 6’3″ player who can help at either guard spot and scores well off the dribble.

30. Utah Jazz: Caleb Swanigan, F/C (Purdue)

LA: Swanigan is capable of banging in the low post, having averaged 12.5 RPG last season at Purdue, and can also make an outside shot — he converted 44.7% of his threes in 2016/17. I like Swanigan’s game and think he could be one of the more undervalued players in 2017’s draft class. He’d be a nice depth addition for the Jazz, who may trade Derrick Favors this year or lose him in free agency next year.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: New Orleans Pelicans

June 20th, 2017 at 10:43am CST by Dana Gauruder

The New Orleans Pelicans had the appearance of a budding powerhouse two seasons ago. Carried by superstar big man Anthony Davis, they made the playoffs in 2015 with a young core of players. Later that spring, they fired Monty Williams and replaced him with Warriors assistant and offensive guru Alvin Gentry with the expectation of making deep playoff runs.

Heading into the summer of 2017, the Pelicans are at a crossroads. A combination of injuries, questionable roster decisions, and underperforming players have led to two consecutive losing seasons.

The surprising and bold move to acquire DeMarcus Cousins at the trade deadline didn’t pay immediate dividends. But the combination of Cousins and Davis makes the Pelicans one of the most intriguing teams in the league.

Here’s a look at the major questions confronting the club this offseason:

1. Can the Pelicans sign unrestricted free agent Jrue Holiday?

The Pelicans have made it clear they want to re-sign Holiday, who has been highly productive when he’s been able to stay out of the trainer’s room. Holiday hasn’t played more than 67 games in the past four seasons, but averaged 15.4 PPG and 7.3 APG in 2016/17.

All indications suggest the Pelicans believe Holiday is the point guard who can keep both Davis and Cousins happy in the Twin Towers attack.

The Pelicans hold Holiday’s Bird rights, allowing them to offer more money and years than any other club. They’ll still have stiff competition for his services. It has been reported that the Mavericks covet Holiday and will make him a substantial offer, and other suitors figure to be in the mix as well.

There are several other starter-level floor leaders on the market if Holiday decides to go elsewhere. Losing Holiday wouldn’t necessarily be disastrous, but the Pelicans would prefer to have continuity at that all-important spot.

2. What type of approach will GM Dell Demps take this offseason?

Demps will be in a win-at-all-costs mode. There was plenty of speculation that Demps and Gentry would lose their jobs after a second consecutive disappointing season. The Cousins trade, which many NBA experts viewed as a coup for Demps and the Pelicans, bought the regime a little more time.

While Demps and Gentry were given a reprieve by owner Tom Benson, their status remains tenuous. They can’t afford another slow start, so the pieces have to be in place to get things turned around quickly.

Demps figures to actively pursue free agents and trades for proven players who can make an immediate impact.

3. Are the Pelicans truly committed to making the Davis-Cousins combination work, or will one of them be dealt?

Gentry believes he can maximize Davis’ and Cousins’ talents with the benefit of a training camp. Davis is locked up contractually at least through the summer of 2020, when he can exercise his player option. Cousins is an entirely different case.

The former King is entering his walk year and has yet to tip his hand on whether he plans to stay in New Orleans long-term. The Pelicans will certainly have to max out Cousins to keep him and that would result in three gargantuan contracts on their books if they re-sign Holiday too.

If the Pelicans aren’t in playoff contention by midseason, a blockbuster deal could be necessary at the trade deadline. It wouldn’t even be a total shock if it happens this offseason should Cousins’ camp make it clear that he plans to go elsewhere in free agency.

The caveat is that Demps, being on the hot seat, would have to get some starters as well as draft picks in return. If the Celtics, for example, wanted Cousins now, they’d have to give players who could jump into the rotation (Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder, etc.) along with a high draft pick or two.

4. Other than a point guard, what is the Pelicans’ biggest need?

New Orleans finished 19th in three-point percentage last season and must improve that ranking going forward. The Pelicans need superior spot-up shooters in order to create space for their two big men.

It would help if Quincy Pondexter could return to good health after having his last two seasons wiped out by knee injuries. Pondexter is a solid three-point threat, but it’s wishful thinking to expect much from him after being out for so long.

Instead, the Pelicans will likely have to use their mid-level and bi-annual exceptions (assuming they retain Holiday) to get a shooter or two on the open market. They’ll obviously be targeting shooting guards and small forwards, with perimeter threats like C.J. Miles and Jodie Meeks as logical targets.

5. The Pelicans traded away their first-round pick in the Cousins deal. Should they make any attempt to move into the first round?

It seems unlikely that the Pelicans will do much on draft day. They could get involved in a three-way deal in which they would acquire a rotation player. It’s also conceivable, though quite unlikely, that they could flip Cousins if they get an overwhelming offer that includes a likely future lottery pick and multiple established players.

Otherwise, New Orleans will be content to select a developmental player in the second round (No. 40 overall pick) and get down to more important business when the free-agent bell rings on July 1st.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Pelicans financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Anthony Davis ($23,775,506)
DeMarcus Cousins ($18,063,850)
Solomon Hill ($12,236,535)
Omer Asik ($10,595,505)
E’Twaun Moore ($8,445,024)
Alexis Ajinca ($4,961,798)
Quincy Pondexter ($3,853,931)
Tim Frazier ($2,000,000)
Cheick Diallo ($1,312,611)
Total: $85,244,760

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Jordan Crawford ($1,709,538)¹
Axel Toupane ($1,471,382)
Quinn Cook ($1,312,611)²
Total: $4,493,531

Restricted Free Agents

None

Cap Holds

Jrue Holiday ($16,929,777)
Dante Cunningham ($5,658,675) — Player option declined
Donatas Motiejunas ($1,471,382)
Total: $24,059,834

Trade Exceptions

Buddy Hield TPE ($3,517,200) — Expires 2/20/18

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $13,308,395

Adding three cap charges for empty roster spots to New Orleans’ nine guaranteed contracts results in a total team salary of $87,691,605. The cap space created in that scenario is minimal, so the Pelicans are more likely to retain one or two of their players on non-guaranteed contracts and to keep Holiday’s cap hold on the books as they attempt to re-sign him. That would mean staying over the cap.

Footnotes:

Crawford’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 1.
Cook’s salary becomes partially guaranteed ($25,000) after July 5. Guarantee increases to $100,000 after July 25.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Phoenix Suns

June 19th, 2017 at 10:48pm CST by Arthur Hill

The Suns showed only modest improvement in their first full season under coach Earl Watson, going from 23 wins to 24. There are reasons to hope for a brighter future, but the Phoenix front office has a lot of work to do on a roster stocked with a combination of very young and very old players, with little in between.

Here are five key questions facing the Suns as that project begins:

1. Anybody need an extra guard?

Devin Booker‘s path to stardom was shorter than anyone expected, and he punctuated his rise to the NBA elite with a 70-point barrage at Boston in March. The second-year guard has been a starter since early in his rookie season and led the Suns in scoring this year at 22.1 points per game. However, his performance has made Brandon Knight expandable, and Knight hasn’t handled it well. He didn’t appear in a single game after the All-Star break and told the team when asked to play in March that back spasms were preventing him from taking the court.

Knight still has three seasons and nearly $43.9MM on a contract he signed in 2015 before the Suns realized what they had in Booker. It won’t be easy to unload a deal of that size, especially given Knight’s reduced production last year. On the other hand, he’s only 25 and has a history of being an explosive scorer, so there may be takers if the Suns don’t expect much in return. A strong first season from Tyler Ulis makes Knight even more expendable.

Another option is dealing Eric Bledsoe, a productive but injury-prone talent. Bledsoe, 27, will be the Suns’ highest-paid player next season ($14.5MM) and in 2018/19 ($15MM) and would probably fetch a nice collection of assets to help with the team’s youth movement.

2. Are the Suns happy with the fourth pick?

This weekend’s draft shakeup may not be the only major move in the top five. According to ESPN’s Chad Ford, the Suns have talked to the Lakers and Celtics about moving up to draft UCLA point guard Lonzo Ball or Kansas forward Josh Jackson (though Phoenix radio host John Gambadoro said there haven’t been talks between the Suns and Celtics about the No. 3 pick).

If the Suns don’t trade up and Ball and Jackson don’t slip to No. 4, they can either field offers from teams that want De’Aaron Fox or just take Jayson Tatum or Jonathan Isaac. Tatum is a ready-made scorer who could fill the small forward position for the next decade. Isaac has steadily risen up draft boards and has the size and skill to handle either forward position.

3. What about the two power forwards the Suns drafted last year?

The Suns swung a deal with Sacramento in 2016 to get a second lottery pick, which brought both Marquese Chriss and Dragan Bender to Phoenix. Chriss had the greater impact in his rookie year, appearing in all 82 games, starting 75, and averaging 9.2 points per night. Bender faced a tougher transition, averaging just 13.3 minutes and 3.4 points per game, and missing a chunk of the season with an ankle injury.

Phoenix has the luxury of being patient with both players, but drafting a forward this year could impact playing time, especially for Bender, and make at least one of them expendable somewhere down the road.

4. What are all these old guys doing here?

The Suns posted the worst record in the Western Conference and the second-worst mark in the entire NBA. That’s not a situation in which minutes and valuable cap room should be devoted to two 34-year-olds in Tyson Chandler and Leandro Barbosa and a 31-year-old Jared Dudley. Ronnie Price, 33, also spent some time on the roster.

Chandler, who will turn 35 before next season starts, would seem much more at home on a contender. However, he still has a hefty contract that pays him $13MM next year and $13.585MM in 2018/19, making teams reluctant to deal for him. Chandler says he enjoys being a mentor for young players, but he’s still seeing plenty of playing time, appearing in 47 games this season and averaging nearly 28 minutes per night.

Barbosa, who chose the Suns in free agency last summer, is due to make $4MM next season, but only $500K is guaranteed before July 3rd, so his days in Phoenix may be numbered. Dudley, another 2016 free agent signing, is under contract for more than $19.5MM over the next two seasons.

5. How long before the Suns contend again?

The best strategy for Phoenix is to keep adding talent through the draft. Booker is a legitimate building block, and Chriss appears to be as well. Alex Len and Alan Williams, both 24, are two free agent big men who could be retained without breaking the bank.

The Suns only have about $7MM in available cap room, although that number could rise closer to $25MM if they part ways with Barbosa and Len. If Phoenix does try to play the free agent market this summer, it should skip the over-30 demographic and concentrate on players more in line with its youth movement.

There’s no need to rush things. The top seven teams in the West look like long-term playoff regulars, and the ones that contended for the eighth spot are all further along in development than Phoenix. If the Suns continue to add young talent, the playoffs could be a realistic goal by the end of the decade.

Phoenix is still paying for its past mistakes. Management apparently believed the team was closer to contention than it really was and overpaid for Knight, Chandler, Dudley and Barbosa. Phoenix needs to cut loose as many of those contracts as possible this summer and fully commit to rebuilding.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Suns financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Eric Bledsoe ($14,500,000)
Brandon Knight ($13,618,750)
Tyson Chandler ($13,000,000)
Jared Dudley ($10,000,000)
Dragan Bender ($4,468,800)
T.J. Warren ($3,152,931)
Marquese Chriss ($3,073,800)
Devin Booker ($2,319,360)
Tyler Ulis ($1,312,611)
Leandro Barbosa ($500,000) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below.¹
Total: $65,946,252

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Leandro Barbosa ($3,500,000) — Partial guarantee. Guaranteed portion noted above.¹
Elijah Millsap ($1,524,305)
Derrick Jones ($1,312,611)
Total: $6,336,916

Restricted Free Agents

Alex Len ($4,187,598 qualifying offer / $12,059,053 cap hold)
Alan Williams ($1,671,382 qualifying offer / $1,671,382 cap hold)
Total: $13,730,435

Cap Holds

No. 4 overall pick ($5,090,040)
Ronnie Price ($1,471,382)
Total: $6,561,422

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $28,332,478

The Suns have nine players on fully guaranteed contracts. If they were to waive their non-guaranteed players and renounce all their free agents, they’d also have to account for cap holds for their first-round pick and two empty roster spots, creating a total team salary of $72,667,522. That would be enough room to make a play for a maximum-salary restricted free agent, but not enough to fit a max contract for a veteran with seven or more years of NBA experience.

Footnotes:

Barbosa’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 3

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Dallas Mavericks

June 19th, 2017 at 9:26am CST by Luke Adams

Few NBA franchises have been more successful in the 21st century than the Mavericks, who finished at .500 or better for 16 consecutive seasons, earning 15 playoff berths, 13 postseason series wins, and a championship during that stretch.

However, the 2016/17 campaign was a disappointment, as the Mavs missed the playoffs by a wide margin, finishing with a 33-49 record. It looks like it’s time for a rebuild in Dallas, but that decision is complicated by the fact that longtime star Dirk Nowitzki likely only has another year or two left in him. After years of building contending rosters and pursuing win-now upgrades, will the Mavs be willing to patiently retool their roster as Nowitzki’s career winds down?

Here are five key questions facing the Mavs as the offseason begins:

1. Will the Mavs ask Dirk Nowitzki to take a pay cut?

A year ago, the Mavericks voluntarily gave Nowitzki more money that the two sides had initially agreed upon, bumping the total value of his two-year contract from $40MM up to $50MM, since it didn’t hamper the team’s ability to make other moves. A year later, Dallas may ask Nowitzki to return that favor.

The German big man, who celebrates his 39th birthday on Monday, is coming off his least productive season since his rookie year, having seen his averages slip to 14.2 PPG, 6.5 RPG, and a .437 FG%. He also missed 28 games due to injuries. Now, the Mavs have to decide whether or not to exercise a team option worth $25MM for 2017/18.

Exercising that team option would leave the Mavs without any cap room, and based on the players they’ve been linked to in various reports and rumors, it doesn’t sound as if they’re necessarily planning on operating as an over-the-cap team. That suggests Dallas may decline Nowitzki’s option and re-sign him at a lesser rate. The amount of the pay cut that Dirk is willing to take could dictate how much spending flexibility the Mavs have this summer.

2. How big will Nerlens Noel‘s new contract be?

Along with Nowitzki, Noel is the other Maverick without a guaranteed contract for 2017/18 who will nonetheless take up a significant chunk of cap room. Having acquired the former sixth overall pick at the deadline, the Mavs appear to regard Noel as their center of the future, and appear to have every intention of retaining him.

Noel, who is eligible for restricted free agency, currently has a cap hold just shy of $11MM. Assuming he intends to re-sign with the Mavs, the team can keep that somewhat modest figure on its books until it uses up the rest of its cap room, and then can go over the cap to lock up Noel. However, if another suitor swoops in with an aggressive offer sheet for Noel, perhaps one worth the max, Dallas’ flexibility may be compromised.

However Noel’s free agency plays out, I don’t expect the Mavs to let him get away, but it will be interesting to see what his new contract looks like. Dallas already has Harrison Barnes on a maximum salary deal, and neither he nor Noel have ever received serious All-Star consideration. With Wesley Matthews also on a sizable contract, the Mavs will have to be careful about paying too many solid starters like they’re franchise players.

3. Will Wesley Matthews be shopped in trade talks?

One way to make a big deal for Noel more palatable would be to move Matthews in a trade that cuts costs. However, Matthews’ trade value isn’t high.

The former Blazer will earn nearly $17.9MM in 2017/18, with an $18.6MM+ player option for the following year. The Portland version of Matthews would have been worth that sort of money, but the Dallas version has seen his shooting numbers decline substantially. A 44.3% shooter (39.3% on three-pointers) before joining the Mavs, Matthews has made just 39.0% of his field goals and 36.2% of his threes over the last two years.

With Barnes now doing many of the things the Mavs initially expected of Matthews, the Marquette product has become more expendable. Dallas wouldn’t get a ton in return for Matthews in a trade, but even just getting out from under his salary would create a new series of possibilities for the club, so it’s worth considering.

4. Who will play point guard for the Mavs?

For the last several years, the Mavs have been searching for long-term answers at the point guard and center positions. With Noel expected to remain in Dallas, the club has a solid option at center. So, what about a point guard?

The free agent market offers plenty of point guard options this summer, and by the sounds of it, the Mavs are exploring the possibility of splashing in that end of the pool. A recent report suggested that the team is viewed as a serious candidate to sign Jrue Holiday, along with his brother Justin Holiday. Signing Jrue would likely require at least $20MM in cap room, so the Mavs’ ability to make a serious play for him – or another point guard of his caliber – may hinge on what happens with Nowitzki, Noel, and Matthews.

Dallas could also delve into the trade market, with another recent report indicating that Ricky Rubio is one trade candidate on the club’s radar. Rubio may be viewed as an underwhelming solution to the Mavs’ point guard problem, but if he continues to play like he did down the stretch in 2016/17, he’d be a worthwhile investment — after the All-Star break, Rubio averaged an impressive 16.0 PPG and 10.5 APG with a .420/.353/.917 shooting line. The Timberwolves aren’t exactly loaded with three-point shooters, so a deal involving Matthews might make some sense for both sides.

5. What will the Mavs do with their lottery pick?

Of course, even if the Mavs don’t land a veteran point guard via trade or free agency, they’re in a great spot to add a prospect at the position. This year’s draft class is heavy on promising point guards, and while the No. 9 pick won’t be high enough to land Markelle Fultz, Lonzo Ball, or De’Aaron Fox, the Mavs may be in position to nab Frank Ntilikina or Dennis Smith Jr.

The Knicks, with the No. 8 pick, are a good bet to take one of those two players off the board before Dallas is on the clock, but I’d expect at least one of them to be available. We don’t know for sure that the Mavs are high on both Ntilikina and Smith, and it’s possible the club would rather go in another direction with that pick, such as selecting Lauri Markkanen as Nowitzki’s eventual replacement. But drafting a young point guard and perhaps acquiring a stop-gap veteran (such as Rubio or a second- or third-tier free agent) would be a great way to address a position that has given the Mavs trouble in recent years.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Mavericks financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Harrison Barnes ($23,112,004)
Wesley Matthews ($17,884,176)
Dwight Powell ($9,003,125)
J.J. Barea ($3,903,900)
Seth Curry ($3,028,410)
Devin Harris ($1,339,662) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below.
A.J. Hammons ($1,312,611)
Gal Mekel ($315,758) — Waived via stretch provision.
Total: $59,899,646

Player Options

None

Team Options

Dirk Nowitzki ($25,000,000)
DeAndre Liggins ($1,577,230)¹
Yogi Ferrell ($1,312,611)
Total: $27,889,841

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Devin Harris ($3,062,884) — Partial guarantee. Guaranteed portion noted above.
Salah Mejri ($1,471,382)²
Nicolas Brussino ($1,312,611)³
Dorian Finney-Smith ($1,312,611)⁴
Jarrod Uthoff ($1,312,611)⁵
Total: $8,472,099

Restricted Free Agents

Nerlens Noel ($4,187,598 qualifying offer / $10,961,225 cap hold)
Total: $10,961,225

Cap Holds

No. 9 overall pick ($2,681,900)
Total: $2,681,900

Trade Exceptions

Andrew Bogut TPE ($6,642,537) — Expires 2/23/18
Justin Anderson TPE ($1,514,160) — Expires 2/23/18

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $34,340,379

The Mavericks have six fully guaranteed contracts on their books. Adding cap charges for their first-round pick and five empty roster spots brings their total team salary to $66,659,621. That would create enough flexibility to pursue a maximum salary player, but it also doesn’t account for players like Noel or Nowitzki, who will almost certainly be back. So, barring cost-cutting trades, Dallas figures to have less cap room than that when July begins.

Footnotes:

Merji’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 12.
Liggins’ salary becomes partially guaranteed ($26,773) after June 24 if team option is exercised.
Brussino’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 6.
Finney-Smith’s salary becomes partially guaranteed ($100,000) after July 6.
Uthoff’s salary becomes partially guaranteed ($200,000) after July 30.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: New York Knicks

June 18th, 2017 at 9:03pm CST by Luke Adams

The Knicks aggressively pursued win-now roster upgrades in the summer of 2016, acquiring Derrick Rose in a trade with the Bulls and signing Joakim Noah and Courtney Lee a couple weeks later in free agency. Rose was so bullish on the new-look Knicks that he optimistically referred to them as a “super-team” alongside the Warriors last offseason, an assertion that looks even more misguided now than it did at the time.

Not only did the Knicks miss the playoffs for a fourth straight season, but the team actually won fewer games (31) than it did in 2015/16 (32). The 2016/17 campaign was filled with indignities for the storied franchise, ranging from Charles Oakley being ejected and banned from Madison Square Garden to Phil Jackson publicly criticizing his highest-paid player and top scorer, Carmelo Anthony.

With the offseason underway in New York, the Knicks will be looking to repair their image off the court in addition to finding ways to improve the product on the court. Here are five key questions facing the club:

1. What will happen with Carmelo Anthony?

Having tired of subtlety, Phil Jackson suggested outright at season’s end that Anthony, the face of the franchise for the last several years, might be better off with another team. He’s not necessarily wrong — the relationship between Anthony and the Knicks seems to have run its course, and if the club is prepared to acknowledge that a rebuild is necessary, it makes sense for Carmelo to pursue a championship elsewhere. Still, it’s the sort of comment rarely made publicly by a team executive, particularly since it could negatively impact his player’s trade value.

Despite the fact that he’s still a reliable scorer, Anthony’s value wasn’t overly high even before Jackson torpedoed it, since his contract is an onerous one, and his 15% trade kicker only makes his salary more difficult to move around. Carmelo also holds a no-trade clause, meaning that his future is ultimately in his own hands, but he appears to be increasingly open to a move, perhaps to a team like the Clippers or Cavaliers.

The Knicks are unlikely to receive too appealing a package in any Anthony deal, and trading with an over-the-cap team like L.A. and Cleveland would mean taking back a sizable chunk of salary to meet the CBA’s trade rules. But at this point, both sides could use a fresh start, and it would be somewhat surprising to see Carmelo still wearing a Knicks uniform next fall.

2. What about the Knicks’ other big contracts?

Anthony’s $26.24MM cap hit is easily the highest on the Knicks’ books for 2017/18, but the team also has two more players earning eight-digit salaries whose long-term futures in New York are uncertain.

Joakim Noah ($17.765MM in 2017/18, plus two more years) had a disastrous first year with the Knicks after signing a $72MM pact with the team. He struggled to produce during the first half of the season, battled injuries in the second half, and capped off the year by receiving a 20-game suspension for violating the NBA’s anti-drug program. Noah has negative trade value, and now is not the time to stretch his contract to gain cap room, so the Knicks’ best bet is to hope he bounces back when he returns from his suspension in the fall and rebuilds his value.

Unlike Noah, Courtney Lee ($11.75MM in ’17/18, plus two more years) would have some value on the trade market as a three-and-D wing veteran who converted more than 40% of his long-distance attempts in 2016/17. New York won’t trade Lee just to trade him, but he made more sense as a complementary piece on a win-now roster than he does for the current iteration of the Knicks, so the club will likely consider moving him for the right offer in the coming weeks.

3. Is everything okay with Kristaps Porzingis?

With Anthony on the trade block and the Knicks apparently – and reluctantly – ready to embrace a rebuild, it seems logical that the team would be focused on keeping Porzingis happy. The former fourth overall pick, who is still just 21 years old, looks like a franchise cornerstone, and a player worth building around.

The Knicks’ dysfunction didn’t sit well with Porzingis though, prompting the Latvian big man to skip his exit meeting with the franchise and head back to his home country for the summer. The Knicks are extremely unlikely to trade Porzingis – or even to seriously consider it – but if he’s going to be a key piece of the franchise for the next five to 10 years, fence-mending may be required. The Knicks’ front office needs to prove that the Carmelo situation was an aberration, and not a preview of how the team will treat its stars going forward.

4. How will the Knicks address the point guard spot?

The 2016/17 season was Derrick Rose‘s best as a scorer since his All-Star days from 2009-12, but his three-point shot was worse than ever – in the rare instances he shot from deep – and he wasn’t a great facilitator during his first, and possibly only, season in New York. Rose’s agent has suggested his client wants to re-sign with the Knicks, but if he wants anything close to the $21MM+ he earned this past season, the team would probably be wise to move on.

Reports in recent months have suggested that there’s some support within the Knicks’ organization for pursuing a veteran free agent point guard, with Jrue Holiday among the players mentioned. But if the Knicks are serious about running the triangle in 2017/18, it’s not clear how much interest they’ll get from those top free agents. It may make more sense to draft a point guard prospect and teach that player the triangle from the get-go.

5. How will the Knicks use their lottery pick?

That brings us to the Knicks’ lottery pick, which landed at No. 8. This year’s draft class has a strong group of 10 to 12 players at the top, so New York should land a promising prospect, and there’s a good chance that prospect will be a point guard.

Depending on how the first seven picks play out, it’s possible that the Knicks will have their pick of Dennis Smith Jr., Frank Ntilikina, and Malik Monk at No. 8. Smith and Ntilikina are more traditional point guards, while Monk is a combo guard who can handle the ball, but is more of a scorer and shooter than a facilitator.

There’s no guarantee that Smith, Ntilikina, and Monk will all be available when the Knicks are on the clock, but at least one or two should be. New York would do well to walk away with any of those three players, adding a building block in the backcourt to pair with Porzingis for the long term.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Knicks financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Carmelo Anthony ($26,243,760)
Joakim Noah ($17,765,000)
Courtney Lee ($11,747,890)
Lance Thomas ($6,655,325)
Kristaps Porzingis ($4,503,600)
Kyle O’Quinn ($4,087,500)
Mindaugas Kuzminskas ($3,025,035)
Willy Hernangomez ($1,435,750)
Total: $75,463,860

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Maurice Ndour ($1,312,611)¹
Marshall Plumlee ($1,312,611)²
Chasson Randle ($1,312,611)
Total: $3,937,833

Restricted Free Agents

Ron Baker ($1,512,611 qualifying offer / $1,512,611 cap hold)
Total: $1,512,611

Cap Holds

Derrick Rose ($30,300,000)³
No. 8 overall pick ($3,501,120)
Justin Holiday ($1,471,382)
Sasha Vujacic ($1,471,382)
Total: $36,743,884

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $19,588,175

Adding the Knicks’ eight guaranteed salaries to cap holds for their first-round pick and three empty roster spots, the team’s salary totals $81,411,825. Even after waiving their three non-guaranteed players and renouncing free agents like Rose, Holiday, and Baker, that wouldn’t be nearly enough for a maximum salary contract, so the Knicks will have to get creative – or dump salary in a Carmelo trade – if they want to make a splash in free agency.

Footnotes:

Ndour’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after June 30.
Plumlee’s salary becomes partially guaranteed ($100,000) after June 30.
Rose’s cap hold is his maximum salary, based on a $101MM cap projection. If the salary cap is higher than $101MM, Rose’s cap hold would increase along with it, up to a maximum of $31,984,878.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Weekly Mailbag: 6/12/17 – 6/18/17

June 18th, 2017 at 1:35pm CST by Arthur Hill

We have an opportunity for you to hit us up with your questions in this, our weekly mailbag feature. Have a question regarding player movement, the salary cap or the NBA draft? Drop us a line at HoopsRumorsMailbag@Gmail.com. Here are this week’s inquiries:

Will any of these stars get traded on draft night: Carmelo Anthony, Paul George or Jimmy Butler? — Deven Parikh, via Twitter

Probably not Carmelo. The Clippers are his most likely destination and they don’t have any draft picks to offer New York. Then there’s the matter of putting together a deal and convincing Anthony to waive his no-trade clause, all in four days. Look for any movement on that front after the draft. George continues to pledge his loyalty to the Pacers and the franchise says it intends to keep him, but management has to see the writing on the wall. He’s going to be one of the biggest names in free agency in 12 months, and Indiana may decide to unload him now if the right offer arises. A deal still seems more likely closer to next year’s deadline as the Pacers take more time to gauge the market and try to convince George to stay. Butler could be interesting, especially if Dwyane Wade opts out and makes his announcement by Thursday instead of the June 27th deadline. If Wade leaves, that could be the last straw in pushing the Bulls toward rebuilding.

Do you think the Kings would scoff at Timofey Mozgov and the 28th pick for Kosta Koufos and Garrett Temple? — thedirewolf

If there is a franchise willing to take Mozgov’s albatross contract away from the Lakers, it could be Sacramento, which will have more cap room than anyone this summer. It depends on the Kings’ plans for Koufos with younger big men like Willie Cauley-Stein, Georgios Papagiannis and Skal Labissiere already on the roster. There are cheaper ways to unload Koufos than to pay Mozgov $48MM over the next three years, but the Kings might consider it to pick up an extra draft choice. If they deal away picks No. 5 and 10 to move up for De’Aaron Fox, they’ll be looking for another selection later in the round.

Is T.J. Leaf the next Kevin Love? Is Frank Jackson a first-round pick? — Michael Huff, via Twitter

There are a lot of big guys in college who can shoot, but few of them ever get to Love’s level. Don’t forget that Love was a top prospect in 2008 who was drafted fifth overall. Leaf is projected somewhere in the middle of the first round. He could eventually develop into a Love-type player, but he could also have a rookie season similar to Henry Ellenson‘s. Jackson is a fringe first-rounder who will probably go in the late 20s or early 30s, depending how the other picks play out. In the latest mock drafts, he is listed 25th by ESPN.com’s Chad Ford and 33rd by DraftExpress.

Am I the only one who is absolutely terrified of the prospect of the Spurs drafting Jordan Bell? — Alex Joel, via Twitter

An impressive athlete and a tenacious defender, Bell would replace some of what Jonathon Simmons provides if the Spurs lose him in free agency. But Bell’s limited shooting range doesn’t fit the profile of what San Antonio looks for in a power forward.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Orlando Magic

June 17th, 2017 at 8:00pm CST by Dana Gauruder

High lottery picks don’t always guarantee success. The Orlando Magic can attest to that. The Magic had a top-five pick in three consecutive drafts, starting in 2013, and failed to come away with a franchise player.

Last season, Orlando tried a different approach, packaging the No. 11 overall pick in a trade with the Thunder to acquire Serge Ibaka, who was entering his walk year. When their season fell apart once again, the Magic ended up dealing Ibaka to the Raptors. Orlando finished 29-53 during Frank Vogel’s first season as head coach with the franchise, a six-game slide from the 2015/16 campaign. Now under new management, the Magic will try to snap their streak of five consecutive losing seasons.

Here are five key questions for the Magic as they enter this offseason:

1. Who should they take with the No. 6 pick in the draft?

It’s generally believed that there’s a drop-off after the first five players come off the board on Thursday. Just the Magic’s luck, they have the sixth pick.

If Markelle Fultz, Lonzo Ball, Josh Jackson, De’Aaron Fox and Jayson Tatum are all gone by the time the Magic’s turn comes up — a pretty safe assumption — they’ll have to strike gold with a less-heralded prospect.

The team’s newly-hired decision-makers, President of Basketball Operations Jeff Weltman and GM John Hammond, have some interesting options and will probably settle on the one with the highest ceiling. Florida State forward Jonathan Isaac could be that guy. His length and ability to guard multiple positions would boost the team’s defense and he has the range to step out and make 3-pointers.

Arizona’s Lauri Markkanen and Kentucky’s Malik Monk would be safer options. Markkanen is a classic stretch four — he made 42% of his 3-point attempts during his lone college season. Monk, a shooting guard, could emerge as the No. 1 scoring option on a team that needs one.

2. Should the Magic offer extensions to Aaron Gordon and Elfrid Payton?

Payton’s numbers have steadily improved through his first three seasons. He averaged 12.8 PPG, 4.7 RPG and 6.5 APG with an above-average 17.25 PER this past season. But it would be surprising if Payton received a serious extension offer. Payton hasn’t convinced anyone that he can be the floor leader for a contending team and he’s a poor three-point shooter, a very big hole in his game. It’s awfully tough to give big money to a point guard who can’t shoot from outside, unless he’s an elite passer.

Gordon is a tougher call. His scoring totals jumped after Ibaka was dealt to Toronto and he was able to slide to his natural power forward position. He averaged 15.8 PPG in March and 19.0 PPG in April. Like Payton though, he’s not adept at shooting three-pointers and he needs to become a better rebounder. It’s likely the new regime will take a wait-and-see approach on Gordon, assuming they don’t deal him.

3. What is the best way for the new regime to upgrade the roster?

Make trades. The Magic won’t be able to acquire a top-level free agent. Not only do they lack the cap room (a max of about $15.7MM to spend), but quality players aren’t going to sign on with a franchise that has become a perennial loser, no matter how nice the Orlando weather is in the winter. The giant contract handed to Bismack Biyombo last season will limit any free agent spending to depth-related causes.

Gordon is the player most likely to be dealt, mainly because he’s a starter still working on his rookie deal. Ideally, Orlando would package him with one of their more onerous contracts such as Biyombo’s or D.J. Augustin‘s. Nikola Vucevic could draw some interest around the league — he’s a solid scorer and rebounder with a reasonable contract (two years, $25MM remaining).

The Magic need more versatile defenders and shooters. They were a woeful perimeter-shooting team last season.

4. What should the Magic do with their other picks?

Orlando has a pair of first-round rounders, with the No. 25 pick (courtesy of the Raptors) to go along with their lottery selection. They also have two high second-rounders (Nos. 33 and 35).

It’s a good bet that Weltman will trade at least one of these picks. Don’t be surprised if the Magic move the late first-rounder and one of the second-rounders to move up in the first round. Orlando has needs all over the board and could probably find another rotation piece with an extra pick in the top 20.

The Magic could also go the draft-and-stash route with at least one of the picks.

5. Should the Magic try to re-sign unrestricted free agent Jodie Meeks?

It depends on what they do with their lottery pick. If they select Monk, then there would be no need for Meeks with Evan Fournier and Monk at the shooting guard spot.

If they draft a forward, or perhaps even a point guard, then bringing back Meeks would make some sense. Meeks can deliver shooting off the bench and his injury history will probably limit his options in the open market. Meeks is a career 37.6% shooter from long range and made 40.9% of his three-point tries last season.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Magic financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Bismack Biyombo ($17,000,000)
Evan Fournier ($17,000,000)
Nikola Vucevic ($12,250,000)
Terrence Ross ($10,500,000)
D.J. Augustin ($7,250,000)
Aaron Gordon ($5,504,420)
Mario Hezonja ($4,078,320)
Elfrid Payton ($3,332,340)
C.J. Watson ($1,000,000) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below.¹
Total: $77,915,080

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

C.J. Watson ($4,000,000) — Partial guarantee. Guaranteed portion noted above.¹
Patricio Garino ($1,312,611)
Marcus Georges-Hunt ($1,312,611)
Stephen Zimmerman ($1,312,611)²
Total: $7,937,833

Restricted Free Agents

Damjan Rudez ($1,724,305 qualifying offer / $1,724,305 cap hold)
Total: $1,724,305

Cap Holds

Jeff Green ($18,000,000)
Jodie Meeks ($12,426,000)
No. 6 overall pick ($4,186,320)
No. 25 overall pick ($1,516,200)
Total: $36,128,520

Trade Exceptions

Serge Ibaka TPE ($2,250,000) — Expires 2/14/18

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $15,751,170

Orlando’s eight guaranteed salaries, cap holds for two first-round picks, and cap charges for two empty roster spots total $85,248,830 in team salary. The Magic aren’t likely to waive all their non-guaranteed players, but they don’t have any free agents they badly needs to bring back, so renouncing those FAs and getting close to their maximum cap room is possible.

Footnotes:

Watson’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 10.
Zimmerman’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 6.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post.

Hoops Rumors Originals: 6/10/17 – 6/17/17

June 17th, 2017 at 3:15pm CST by Joshua Fischman

Every week, the Hoops Rumors writing team compiles original content to complement our news feed. Here are some of our favorite segments and features from the past seven days:

Luke Adams provides an explanation as to how cash-trading rules may affect teams’ draft plans.
We offer five more installments in our Five Key Offseason Questions series with the Nuggets, Rockets, Nets, Spurs, and Heat.
Arthur Hill discusses whether the 76ers can nab any big-name shooting guards this offseason, if the Pistons are breaking up the band, and draft rumors in his weekly Sunday mailbag. Submit your questions via Twitter (@HoopsRumors) or by sending us an email (hoopsrumorsmailbag@gmail.com).
In his weekly Hoops Links roundup of interesting articles from around the blogosphere, Austin Kent shares pieces on the Celtics‘ imminent need to make difficult choices, unlikely ambassador Dennis Rodman‘s unique capability to broker peace between the United States and North Korea, and how the Cavaliers should resist pulling the trigger on any blockbuster trades this offseason.
Check out our free Trade Rumors app available for IOS and Android.
Here are the questions we asked you in our Community Shootaround discussions and polls this week:
- Which team will win Game 5 of the NBA Finals?
- What should the 76ers do with their first-round pick in the draft?
- What are your thoughts on Adam Silver’s new policy on resting players?
- What are your thoughts on a potential 76ers big three of Markelle Fultz– Ben Simmons –Joel Embiid?

Categories:
Hoops Rumors Originals

Five Key Offseason Questions: Denver Nuggets

June 16th, 2017 at 2:30pm CST by Luke Adams

After three straight seasons with win totals in the 30s, the Nuggets took a modest step forward in 2016/17, battling for a playoff spot in the Western Conference and ultimately falling just short of the postseason – and of .500 – at 40-42.

While the end result was somewhat disappointing, the Nuggets can view the season as an overall success, since it saw the emergence of a potential franchise player. Nikola Jokic, a second-round pick in 2014, entered Denver’s starting lineup for good on December 15, and from that point on, he averaged an eye-popping 19.2 PPG, 10.9 RPG, and 5.8 APG to go along with a shooting line of .587/.342/.825. The Joker is still only 22 years old, and looks like a tremendous building block for a Nuggets team that has lacked star power since trading Carmelo Anthony.

Still, while Jokic’s breakout season was encouraging, the team has several key questions to answer as the offseason gets underway. Here are five:

1. Will Danilo Gallinari be back?

Gallinari, a key piece in that aforementioned Carmelo trade, has been a Nugget since 2011, but will be eligible for unrestricted free agency this July after turning down his player option with the team. Gallinari has been one of the league’s more underrated scorers in recent years, and is coming off the best shooting season of his career (.447/.389/.902). The Nuggets also have more than enough cap flexibility to bring him back.

On the other hand, Gallinari has a lengthy history of injuries, having failed to play more than 63 games in a season since 2012/13. Furthermore, Denver has a crowded rotation at the forward position, with Kenneth Faried, Juan Hernangomez, Wilson Chandler, and Darrell Arthur among the players who would be vying with Gallinari for minutes at the three and four. If the Nuggets trade one or two of those forwards, re-signing Gallinari makes a little more sense, but it’s not hard to imagine him ending up elsewhere this summer.

2. How can the Nuggets acquire another star to pair with Jokic?

If Gallinari doesn’t return, the Nuggets could create more than $35MM in cap room, which would be enough to make a maximum salary contract offer to a free agent. Perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised then that Denver has been mentioned as one of the teams that Chris Paul intends to talk to if he explores leaving the Clippers this offseason.

Still, while newly-promoted president of basketball operations Tim Connelly says agents have told him their clients want to play with Jokic, Denver hasn’t historically been a top destination for elite free agents. The Nuggets made an unsuccessful push for Dwyane Wade last summer, and Connelly has talked about being wary of free agents using Denver for leverage. Jokic’s presence and a solid core makes the Nuggets a more appealing landing spot, but it’s still hard to believe that a player of Paul’s caliber would choose Denver over teams closer to contending or over more glamorous cities.

While it doesn’t hurt to go after a marquee free agent, the Nuggets may have more luck pursuing a top player via trade. The team holds all its future first-round picks and has a handful of young players of various appeal on cheap contracts, including Will Barton, Jamal Murray, Emmanuel Mudiay, and Malik Beasley. Denver could put together a tantalizing trade package, but once again, the team would have to be careful about targeting a player who could depart in free agency in the near future. There’s probably no sense giving up several assets for Paul George if you’re concerned he’ll head to the Lakers in 2018.

3. How will the Nuggets address the point guard spot?

On paper, the Nuggets’ point guard duo of Mudiay and Jameer Nelson seems somewhat promising — the former seventh overall pick heading into his third year paired with the reliable veteran backup. However, Mudiay’s development in his first two NBA seasons has been slow, and Nelson will turn 36 years old during the 2017/18 season. For a team with an All-Star caliber center and solid performers on the wing, there’s a real risk that the point guard spot will be the lineup’s weak link.

The handling of Mudiay is perhaps the trickiest decision for the Nuggets going forward. He’s still only 21 years old, and the club certainly shouldn’t give up on him yet. But Denver is getting to the point in its rebuild where annual postseason contention is expected, and it’s not clear that Mudiay is capable of leading a playoff team.

This year’s class of free agent point guards is a strong one, and while the Nuggets probably won’t land Paul, it will be interesting to see whether the team shows serious interest in any other top FAs at the position. A veteran point guard like George Hill, Jeff Teague, Jrue Holiday, or even Kyle Lowry would look good in Denver’s lineup, though adding a player of that caliber would create uncertainty about Mudiay’s future with the franchise. Will he continue to get significant minutes, or will he become a potential trade chip this offseason?

4. What will the Nuggets do with their lottery pick?

Although they won’t pick as high as they have in the last couple years, the Nuggets should be able to land a talented prospect with the No. 13 pick. Chad Ford’s tiers at ESPN.com (Insider link) suggest that a few players out of a third tier that includes OG Anunoby, Zach Collins, Harry Giles, Luke Kennard, and Donovan Mitchell should be available for Denver.

I’d expect Kennard and perhaps Mitchell to be off the board by No. 13, but players like Anunoby and Giles would present the Nuggets with an interesting choice. Denver already has a fairly deep roster and doesn’t need to draft someone who can step into the rotation immediately. As such, it might make sense for the Nuggets to roll the dice on a player like Anunoby or Giles.

Both players are risks because of their injury histories, but would likely be top-10 selections based on talent alone. Denver is in a spot where it can afford to take a chance on a prospect with major upside — and potential downside.

5. What will Mason Plumlee‘s new deal look like?

The Nuggets would have had a second first-round pick in this year’s draft if not for a February deal with Portland. That trade looks like a heist for the Trail Blazers, who not only landed Jusuf Nurkic, but also picked up a first-round pick, which will be the No. 20 overall selection.

Nurkic likely wouldn’t have blossomed in Denver like he did in Portland, so the Nuggets shouldn’t feel too disheartened, but in order to salvage some value from the move, the team will need to get good production out of Plumlee in the coming years. The only problem? Plumlee is already eligible to hit the market as a restricted free agent this offseason.

Connelly has said that the team views Plumlee as a key part of its core, so it doesn’t sound like the Nuggets will let him get away. But if a team makes an aggressive offer like the Nets did to multiple RFAs last year, keeping him could get pricey. Plumlee is a solid player, but as a backup center, his role won’t necessarily be substantial unless Jokic gets hurt. The Nuggets will have to be determine how high they’re willing to go if Plumlee gets a big offer sheet.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Nuggets financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Kenneth Faried ($12,921,348)
Wilson Chandler ($12,016,854)
Darrell Arthur ($7,464,912)
Jameer Nelson ($4,736,050)
Will Barton ($3,533,333)
Emmanuel Mudiay ($3,381,480)
Jamal Murray ($3,355,320)
Gary Harris ($2,550,055)
Juan Hernangomez ($2,076,840)
Malik Beasley ($1,700,640)
Nikola Jokic ($1,471,382)
Total: $55,208,214

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Mike Miller ($3,500,000)¹
Total: $3,500,000

Restricted Free Agents

Mason Plumlee ($4,588,840 qualifying offer / $5,821,325 cap hold)
Total: $5,821,325

Cap Holds

Danilo Gallinari ($22,575,000) — Player option declined.
Roy Hibbert ($6,000,000)
No. 13 overall pick ($2,621,280)
Total: $31,196,280

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $43,170,506

With 11 guaranteed salaries on their books and a cap hold for their first-round pick, the Nuggets have a modest team salary of $57,829,494. If the club intends to make a serious effort to re-sign Gallinari, that figure will grow, reducing cap flexibility. But if Gallinari departs and Denver makes a trade or two, the team could create even more cap room.

Footnotes:

Miller’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 12.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

How Cash-Trading Rules May Impact Teams’ Draft Plans

June 16th, 2017 at 10:35am CST by Luke Adams

A year ago, five draft-night trades involving second-round picks saw money change hands between two NBA teams. In some cases, the cost of those picks wasn’t exorbitant — the Nuggets reportedly only received $730K from the Thunder in exchange for the rights to the No. 56 pick, which was used on Daniel Hamilton. However, the price tag on a few other picks was higher.

The Warriors, for instance, sent $2.4MM to the Bucks in exchange for the right to draft Patrick McCaw. The Nets gave $3MM to the Jazz for the right to move up and nab Isaiah Whitehead. The No. 54 pick, which was used on Kay Felder, cost the Cavaliers $2.47MM to acquire from Atlanta.

Teams with an excess of second-round picks will likely look to sell a selection or two this year, while clubs looking to get back into the second round can dangle cash in lieu of players or picks. But teams can’t simply send as much money as they want in order to acquire draft picks.

The NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement limits the amount of money teams can send and receive in trades during a given league year. For the 2016/17 season, the maximum is $3.5MM. A team can send out as much as $3.5MM in trades, and receive up to that amount as well, but after that point, they can’t use any more cash in trades.

Cash paid and cash received are separate entities, so a team that has sent out $3.5MM in trades can’t “start over” by receiving $3.5MM in another trade — once they’ve paid $3.5MM, they’re essentially capped out in terms of tradeable cash. Since the new league year doesn’t begin until July 1, trades made since July 2016 will affect how much money teams can pay or receive in this year’s draft.

There are potentially ways to get around these restrictions — if a team without any tradeable cash left badly wants to buy a second-round pick, it’s possible an agreement in principle with another club could be reached, and a trade could be finalized in July when spending resets. But both teams would have to be on board, and a team with the ability to send or receive cash this year may not want to hamper its 2017/18 flexibility by waiting. When teams sell draft picks for cash, those deals are generally made official on draft night.

According to data from Basketball Insiders, these are the teams that have already paid or received more than half of their $3.5MM limit in 2016/17, reducing their flexibility on draft night:

Cash Paid:

Cleveland Cavaliers: $0 remaining ($3,500,000 paid)
Dallas Mavericks: $272,714 remaining ($3,227,286 paid)
Portland Trail Blazers: $575,000 remaining ($2,925,000 paid)

Cash Received:

Denver Nuggets: $0 remaining ($3,500,000 received)
Philadelphia 76ers: $100,000 remaining ($3,400,000 received)
Indiana Pacers: $272,714 remaining ($3,227,286 received)

The two teams impacted most by the money they’ve already spent or received in trades are probably the Cavaliers and Sixers. Cleveland has traded both of its 2017 picks, and will have a hard time getting back into the draft without any cash to use.

As for the Sixers, they have more picks than any other team in this draft, including four second-rounders. Philadelphia probably doesn’t want to use all of those picks, but trading them could be tricky, since the team isn’t eligible to receive more than $100K. If Philadelphia does trade a second-rounder or two, the return could be future picks rather than cash.

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