Hoops Rumors Originals

Cavs, Clippers Finished 2016/17 In Tax Territory

Although last summer’s free agent period saw teams across the NBA engage in an unprecedented spending spree, four teams finished the 2016/17 season below the salary floor, and only two teams surpassed the luxury tax line and finished in tax territory.

With the salary cap having increased to a record-high level, most of the NBA’s teams were able to comfortably avoid spending $113.287MM and going into the tax. The two exceptions were in Cleveland and Los Angeles, where the Cavaliers zoomed past the tax threshold and the Clippers went a little beyond it as well.

The NBA will likely release official figures regarding this season’s taxpaying teams in July, but here’s our unofficial data on the Cavs and Clippers:

Cleveland Cavaliers:

  • Total team salary for tax purposes: $126,696,581
  • Amount above tax line: $13,409,581
  • Projected tax bill: $24,773,953
  • The Cavaliers don’t qualify as repeat taxpayers, since they didn’t pay the tax in at least three of the previous four seasons, so their tax rate is as follows:
    • $1.50 per dollar for the first $5MM over tax
    • $1.75 per dollar for the next $5MM over tax ($5-10MM range)
    • $2.50 per dollar for the next $5MM over tax ($10-15MM range)

Los Angeles Clippers:

  • Total team salary for tax purposes: $114,740,032
  • Amount above tax line: $1,453,032
  • Projected tax bill: $3,632,580
  • Unlike the Cavs, the Clippers do qualify as repeat taxpayers, since they were in the tax for each of the three previous seasons. As such, their tax rate starts at $2.50 per dollar.

The Portland Trail Blazers were the only other team in danger of crossing into tax territory, and after Maurice Harkless earned a $500K bonus at the end of the season, the Blazers came perilously close to that threshold. According to Bobby Marks’ data at The Vertical, Portland finished $4,462 shy of the tax line.

The Blazers didn’t sign a single free agent to a full-season or 10-day contract in 2016/17 after the season began, and it’s a good thing they didn’t. The one-day salary for a player with at least two years of NBA experience this season was $5,767, so even adding a veteran for a single day would have put Portland into the tax.

Once again, our data – and Marks’ – isn’t necessarily official, so we’ll wait for formal confirmation from the NBA this summer. But it looks like the Blazers just narrowly avoided becoming the league’s third taxpayer this year. Instead of paying the tax, Portland figures to be one of the 28 teams receiving a portion of the tax charges paid by the Clippers and Cavs.

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Four Teams Finished Below 2016/17 Salary Floor

Four NBA teams finished the 2016/17 season below the league’s salary floor and will have to make up the difference by paying a little extra money to the players who finished the season on their respective rosters. The Nets, Nuggets, Timberwolves, and Jazz each fell short of the $84.729MM floor this season.

While the 2016/17 league year isn’t over yet, the end of the regular season last week signaled the “snapshot” day for luxury tax and salary floor purposes. Teams are required to spend at least 90% of the salary cap in each NBA season, though the penalties for failing to do so aren’t exactly punitive. If a club falls $2MM short of the salary floor, for instance, it must pay that $2MM to players on its roster to reach the floor.

Our numbers aren’t official, but they should very closely resemble the NBA’s final figures. Bobby Marks of The Vertical confirmed last week that Brooklyn, Denver, Minnesota, and Utah finished below the salary floor. Here’s what those team’s end-of-season cap figures look like, per our Salary Cap Snapshots:

While the current CBA doesn’t include a set formula that teams must adhere to when distributing the salary floor shortfall to their players, it’s believed that players generally receive proportional amounts based on their salaries, rather than even splits. So for the Jazz, a player like Gordon Hayward would receive a larger share than Joel Bolomboy.

With the NBA’s salary cap expected to increase to at least $101MM in 2017/18, the league’s salary floor appears likely to exceed $90MM next season.

Weekly Mailbag: 4/10/17 – 4/16/17

We have an opportunity for you to hit us up with your questions in this, our weekly mailbag feature. Have a question regarding player movement, the salary cap or the NBA draft? Drop us a line at HoopsRumorsMailbag@Gmail.com. Here are this week’s inquiries:

What are the chances Klay Thompson could be pried away from Golden State when he hits free agency? — FTD, via Twitter

Thompson signed a rookie scale extension three years ago that has him under contract through 2018/19. It’s hard to predict how the NBA will look two seasons down the road, but we do know a few things. Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant will both sign max deals this offseason, while Draymond Green has a near-max contract that he agreed to last summer. That leaves Golden State with a very top-heavy salary structure with four players putting the team close to the cap. In two years, Curry will be 31, Durant will turn 30 and Thompson and Green will be 29. All four will still be in their primes and Golden State figures to remain among the NBA’s elite teams. There’s no reason to think the Warriors will be ready to break up their core by then, even with looming luxury tax concerns. Look for Thompson to get another max deal in 2019 and finish his career with Golden State.

Will the Lakers be better next season? — Broad Feet, via Twitter

With a nucleus of young, talented players, L.A. should improve at least a little bit every season. D’Angelo Russell, Julius Randle, Jordan Clarkson, Brandon Ingram and Larry Nance Jr. could eventually develop into a team that makes regular playoff appearances. But what the Lakers need is a star to build around, and there are only a few ways to get one. L.A. has imperiled its draft pick with a few late-season victories, falling behind Phoenix into third place in our Reverse Standings. If that pick drops out of the top three on lottery night, it will be transferred to Philadelphia, leaving the Lakers with no shot at Lonzo Ball, Markelle Fultz or any other franchise-changing talent. The team won’t appear more attractive to free agents than it was last year, and the huge contracts it gave to Luol Deng and Timofey Mozgov will be a drain on the salary cap for the next three years. The dream of signing Paul George is at least a year away. So the Lakers might be a little bit better next season, but real improvement will require patience.

Whenever anyone makes the MVP case for James Harden over Russell Westbrook, they point to Houston’s record vs. OKC’s. Couldn’t the same argument be used to make the case for Kawhi Leonard over Harden? The Spurs’ supporting cast isn’t much better than the Rockets’, and the gap between San Antonio and Houston is as big as the gap between Houston and OKC. — Jonathan C., via email

That’s a very good argument. Leonard averages nearly 26 points per game on the second best team in the league, and the defensive gap between him and Harden is huge. It should be a very interesting three-man race for MVP, with LeBron James, Isaiah Thomas and maybe some others also getting votes. Westbrook’s triple-doubles will impress voters, as will Harden’s gaudy numbers in points and assists, but you could make the case that no one has done more to help his team win on a nightly basis than Leonard.

Community Shootaround: Next Coach Fired

It was an unusually good year for NBA coaches in terms of job security. For the first time in 53 years, an entire season passed without a coach being fired. In fact, it has happened only twice before: during the 1960/61 season when the league had just eight teams and in 1963/64 when there were nine.

But this run can’t last forever, and eventually a coaching change will be made. It may even happen during the playoffs to a coach whose team gets knocked out earlier than expected.

Part of the explanation for the firing-free season is that so many of the league’s lower-tier teams recently made coaching moves. In the East, the Nets, Magic and Knicks all started the season with new men behind the bench, as did the Lakers, Timberwolves and Kings in the West. Earl Watson in Phoenix was hired midway through last season.

So who are the leading candidates to be the next coach fired?

  • Alvin Gentry is rumored to be on the proverbial “hot seat” in New Orleans, with management threatening to ship off him and GM Dell Demps unless “significant progress” was made over the last month of the season. The Pelicans dropped six of their last 10 and finished seven games out of a playoff spot, so we’ll see if that’s significant enough.
  • Fred Hoiberg has been under fire seemingly since the day he took the job with the Bulls. Last year, he was the target of public criticism from Jimmy Butlerand this season featured benchings, quickly followed by non-benchings, for Rajon Rondo and Nikola Mirotic. But the Bulls crawled out of the pack to earn a playoff spot and Hoiberg still has a lot of support in the front office, so he might be safe.
  • Stan Van Gundy has two seasons left on his $35MM deal with the Pistons, but things didn’t go well this year in Detroit. Reggie Jackson‘s physical problems and Andre Drummond‘s motivational issues raised questions about whether it was wise to invest so much in them. Van Gundy has a lot of power in the organization, but he’ll need to get off to a good start next season, especially with the franchise moving into a new downtown arena.
  • Brett Brown has one of the worst coaching records in modern history, but little of it is his fault. The Sixers weren’t trying to win under former GM Sam Hinkie, and now that Brown has some talent to work with, most of it was injured. He should get a chance to coach a healthy Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid and Jerryd Bayless next season, but Philadelphia fans will get restless quickly if the team doesn’t start to show some success.
  • Jeff Hornacek should be worried when Knicks president Phil Jackson starts using words like “mentoring.” That’s what Jackson plans to do more of next season, which means a greater emphasis on the triangle. If Hornacek can’t adjust, Jackson won’t hesitate to find another coach who will.

We want to get your input. Who do you believe will be the next NBA coach to be fired? Please share your thoughts in the comments section below. We look forward to what you have to say.

Hoops Rumors Originals: 4/8/17 – 4/15/17

Throughout the week, the Hoops Rumors staff likes to publish original content to supplement our news feed. Here are some of our favorites from the week that was.

  • We examine important dates for the NBA offseason, all the way up to the start of training camps in late September.
  • Two-way contracts will be introduced next season that will increase roster sizes and affect the way players are assigned to the D-League.
  • Our weekly look at the NBA’s best blog posts will be moving to a new day.
  • Luke Adams broke down the playoff and draft implications of the final day of the regular season.
  • Draft lottery odds are set with the season coming to an end.
  • The Hoops Rumors staff made its picks for Executive of the Year and Coach of the Year.
  • We look back at our over/under predictions for the just-completed season.
  • A Community Shootaround asked readers to forecast first-round playoff upsets.
  • Miss last week’s Hoops Rumors Originals summary? Look back on it here.

2017 NBA Award Picks: Coach Of The Year

With the 2016/17 NBA regular season in the books, we’re making our picks for the year’s major awards. The Hoops Rumors writing team has weighed in with our selections below, but we also want to know which players, coaches, and executives you think are most deserving of the hardware this season, so jump into the comments section below to share your thoughts.

We’re keeping things going today with the award for Coach of the Year. Here are our picks:

Dana Gauruder: Mike D’Antoni (Rockets)Mike D'Antoni vertical
Many people thought D’Antoni was washed up and might not get another head coaching job. The Rockets rolled the dice and D’Antoni’s decision to make James Harden the primary ball-handler turned out to be a brilliant stroke. Houston has the second-most feared offense in the league behind only the uber-talented Warriors.

Austin Kent: Mike D’Antoni (Rockets)
In his first year with the Rockets, D’Antoni completely changed the culture of the organization. He didn’t just gradually facilitate the inevitable improvement of his players — he transformed how the team approaches the game. From the get-go, D’Antoni executed an unconventional vision and his decision to let Harden steer the ship as a point guard instantly spurred the team’s offensive metamorphosis and pushed Houston from a forgettable good team to a dark-horse great team.

Chris Crouse: Gregg Popovich (Spurs)
Popovich is the best coach in the league. The Spurs remain in contention for a title every year and Popovich’s ability to get the most out of the team’s talent is a major reason why — just look at Dewayne Dedmon and Jonathon Simmons this season. David Lee appeared to be on his way to out of the league only two seasons ago, but this year under Popovich, you can argue that he had his most effective season as a pro. D’Antoni and Erik Spoelstra both deserve credit, but Pop continues to prove he deserves the award.

Arthur Hill: Brad Stevens (Celtics)
The Celtics were supposed to get better after adding Al Horford in free agency, but hardly anyone expected a No. 1 seed. Boston doesn’t have a superstar like the other elite teams, but Stevens constantly has the team playing above its talent level. He took Isaiah Thomas, who was cast off by both the Kings and Suns, and turned him into an MVP candidate, and he gave rookie Jaylen Brown a smooth transition into the rotation. Stevens has been recognized as one of the league’s best bench coaches for years, and now he has a No. 1 seed to back it up.

Luke Adams: Gregg Popovich (Spurs)
D’Antoni, Spoelstra, Scott Brooks, and a handful of other coaches have strong cases for this award, but it’s hard to vote against Popovich, who coaxed 61 wins out of a roster that’s not exactly loaded with All-Stars. While Kawhi Leonard is a bona-fide MVP candidate, many other Spurs are either past their primes (Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, Pau Gasol) or haven’t yet peaked (Jonathon Simmons, Kyle Anderson, Davis Bertans). Tim Duncan‘s retirement seemed to mark the end of an era in San Antonio, but the Popovich-led Spurs didn’t miss a beat in Duncan’s absence.

Who is your pick for Coach of the Year? Share your choices and your thoughts in the comments section below!

Previously:
April 13: Executive of the Year

Still to come:
April 17: Most Improved Player
April 18: Sixth Man of the Year
April 19: Defensive Player of the Year
April 20: Rookie of the Year
April 21: Most Valuable Player

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Revisiting NBA Over/Under Predictions For 2016/17

At the start of the 2016/17 NBA season, we took a close look at the projected win totals for each NBA team, with the help of the lines from offshore betting site Bovada.lv. Division by division, we ran through every club from the Warriors (66.5) to the Nets (20.5), allowing you to weigh in and vote on whether you though each team’s win total would ultimately end up above or below its preseason projection.

With the regular season now in the books, we’re taking a look back today at the results of those votes to see how we fared in our predictions. Listed below are the over/unders for each team, the results of our preseason votes, and the team’s regular season record. Our correct calls are noted in green, while the ones we missed are marked in red.

Here are the results:

Atlantic (2-3)

  • Boston Celtics (52.5 wins): Under (54.59%)
    • Record: 53-29 (Over)
  • Toronto Raptors (50.5 wins): Over (54.63%)
    • Record: 51-31 (Over)
  • New York Knicks (38.5 wins): Over (71.41%)
    • Record: 31-51 (Under)
  • Philadelphia 76ers (23.5 wins): Under (54.62%)
    • Record: 28-54 (Over)
  • Brooklyn Nets (20.5 wins): Under (60.74%)
    • Record: 20-62 (Under)

Central (2-3)

  • Cleveland Cavaliers (56.5 wins): Over (66.5%)
    • Record: 51-31 (Under)
  • Detroit Pistons (44.5 wins): Over (55.03%)
    • Record: 37-45 (Under)
  • Indiana Pacers (44.5 wins): Over (73.06%)
    • Record: 42-40 (Under)
  • Chicago Bulls (38.5 wins): Over (61.9%)
    • Record: 41-41 (Over)
  • Milwaukee Bucks (34.5 wins): Over (67.48%)
    • Record: 42-40 (Over)

Southeast (2-3)

  • Atlanta Hawks (43.5 wins): Over (59.84%)
    • Record: 43-39 (Under)
  • Charlotte Hornets (42.5 wins): Under (62.22%)
    • Record: 36-46 (Under)
  • Washington Wizards (42.5 wins): Over (51.6%)
    • Record: 49-33 (Over)
  • Orlando Magic (37.5 wins): Over (54.42%)
    • Record: 29-53 (Under)
  • Miami Heat (34.5 wins): Under (61.45%)
    • Record: 41-41 (Over)

Northwest (1-4)

  • Utah Jazz (49 wins): Under (68.72%)
    • Record: 51-31 (Over)
  • Portland Trail Blazers (45.5 wins): Over (69.92%)
    • Record: 41-41 (Under)
  • Oklahoma City Thunder (43.5 wins): Over (65.71%)
    • Record: 47-35 (Over)
  • Minnesota Timberwolves (40.5 wins): Over (50.11%)
    • Record: 31-51 (Under)
  • Denver Nuggets (37 wins): Under (68.81%)
    • Record: 40-42 (Over)

Southwest (3-2)

  • San Antonio Spurs (58.5 wins): Under (57.4%)
    • Record: 61-21 (Over)
  • Houston Rockets (44 wins): Over (52.76%)
    • Record: 55-27 (Over)
  • Memphis Grizzlies (42.5 wins): Over (59.69%)
    • Record: 43-39 (Over)
  • Dallas Mavericks (38.5 wins): Over (69.71%)
    • Record: 33-49 (Under)
  • New Orleans Pelicans (37 wins): Under (70.9%)
    • Record: 34-48 (Under)

Pacific (3-2)

  • Golden State Warriors (66.5 wins): Over (67.32%)
    • Record: 67-15 (Over)
  • Los Angeles Clippers (53.5 wins): Over (61.96%)
    • Record: 51-31 (Under)
  • Sacramento Kings (34 wins): Under (58.1%)
    • Record: 32-50 (Under)
  • Phoenix Suns (30 wins): Over (52.6%)
    • Record: 24-58 (Under)
  • Los Angeles Lakers (24.5 wins): Over (65.92%)
    • Record: 26-56 (Over)

On the whole, we were just 13-17 when it came to accurately predicting over/unders for 2016/17, so hopefully no one took our votes to Vegas before the season got underway.

Before the season, our readers were most bullish on the Pacers, Knicks, Trail Blazers, Mavericks, and Bucks to outperform expectations, but ultimately only Milwaukee exceeded their projected win total out of that group. The other four teams fell multiple games short.

Our readers were most bearish on the Pelicans, Nuggets, Jazz, Hornets, and Heat, strongly voting for the under in each case. However, Denver, Utah, and Miami all exceeded expectations, surpassing their projected win totals.

Which teams disappointed or impressed you most based on preseason expectations? Jump into the comments section below to share your thoughts.

2017 NBA Award Picks: Executive Of The Year

Now that the 2016/17 NBA regular season has come to an end, we’ll be making our picks for the year’s major awards. The Hoops Rumors writing team has weighed in with our picks below, but we also want to know which players, coaches, and executives you think are most deserving of the hardware this season, so jump into the comments section below to share your thoughts.

We’re kicking things off today with the award for Executive of the Year. Here are our selections:

Dana Gauruder: Daryl Morey (Rockets)Daryl Morey vertical
The Rockets spent big bucks on free agents and those moves paid off. Eric Gordon stayed healthy for a change and emerged as the second-league scorer and Ryan Anderson filled the role of stretch four. A trade deadline move gave them another valuable piece – Lou Williams – for the playoffs.

Austin Kent: Bob Myers (Warriors)
The Warriors added a top-five player without disrupting their 73-win core. We can try to come up with excuses to give the award to somebody else, but that’s all they are — excuses. The addition of Kevin Durant may have interfered with the team’s flow at the beginning of the season but there’s no denying that the organization is in a better place in the long run. This front office hasn’t made many moves since the summer, but the few moves they’ve made have been smart and calculated. I give them full credit for adding Zaza Pachulia as a bargain bin replacement for Andrew Bogut and recognizing JaVale McGee’s value when other teams failed to.

Chris Crouse: Daryl Morey (Rockets)
Dwight Howard may no longer be the force he was during his prime, but he’s still a top center in the league and losing those types of players are supposed to hurt a franchise. The Rockets didn’t flinch when he left and part of the reason was the presence of Clint Capela. Morey had faith in the young center and that allowed him to use the majority of his resources to upgrade the team’s other positions.

Adding players is only part of the job of GM; knowing what you already have is equally as important. Morey deserves credit for assembling a team of shooters around James Harden, but he wouldn’t have been able to make some of his offseason moves if he didn’t have a great pulse on what he already had in-house. He checks all the Executive of the Year boxes for me.

Arthur Hill: Daryl Morey (Rockets)
After hiring Mike D’Antoni as coach last summer, Morey fully committed to the D’Antoni style of play. The Rockets have favored the 3-pointers and layups philosophy since Morey took over in 2007, but they never had the shooters to make it really work. This year, Morey signed Gordon and Anderson in free agency, then traded for Williams at the deadline. Add in the signing of veteran center Nene to a team-friendly deal, and it’s easy to see what the Rockets increased their win total by 14 games.

Luke Adams: John Hammond (Bucks)
Hammond’s work in free agency last summer wasn’t overly impressive, with lucrative long-term deals for Miles Plumlee and Mirza Teletovic not working out as planned. But newly-added Matthew Dellavedova was a crucial rotation piece in Milwaukee this season, and Hammond did excellent work in other areas.

Landing Tony Snell and Michael Beasley in two offseason trades in exchange for players who weren’t in the Bucks’ long-term plans was deft, as was snagging potential Rookie of the Year Malcolm Brogdon in the second round of the draft and dumping Plumlee’s contract at the deadline. Meanwhile, many observers expected the Bucks to get whatever they could for Greg Monroe in a trade, but Hammond hung onto him and watched as he became one of the league’s most effective bench scorers. He also ignored calls to tank when Jabari Parker went down — that turned out to be the right decision, as the Bucks finished the season on an impressive 20-11 run, climbing to No. 6 in the East.

Who is your pick for Executive of the Year? Share your choices and your thoughts in the comments section below!

Schedule:
April 14: Coach of the Year
April 17: Most Improved Player
April 18: Sixth Man of the Year
April 19: Defensive Player of the Year
April 20: Rookie of the Year
April 21: MVP

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2017 NBA Draft Lottery Odds

With the NBA’s 2016/17 regular season now in the books, the odds for this year’s draft lottery have been set. With the help of our Reverse Standings, as well as information from LotteryBucket.com, here is the 2017 lottery order, along with each team’s chances of landing a top pick:

  1. Boston Celtics (via Brooklyn Nets)
    • No. 1: 25.0%
    • Top-3: 64.3%
    • Lowest pick: No. 4
    • Note: Celtics acquire pick due to ability to swap first-round picks with Nets.
  2. Phoenix Suns
    • No. 1: 19.9%
    • Top-3: 55.8%
    • Lowest pick: No. 5
  3. Los Angeles Lakers
    • No. 1: 15.6%
    • Top-3: 46.9%
    • Lowest pick: No. 6
    • Note: Pick will be sent to Sixers if not in top 3 (odds: 53.1%).
  4. Philadelphia 76ers
    • No. 1: 14.7%
    • Top-3: 45.3%
    • Lowest pick: No. 7
    • Note: Sixers have right to swap picks with Kings, so their No. 1 and top-3 odds are a little higher than they otherwise would be. No. 1 and top-3 odds for Sixers’ own pick are 11.9% and 37.8%, respectively.
  5. Orlando Magic
    • No. 1: 8.8%
    • Top-3: 29.12%
    • Lowest pick: No. 8
  6. Minnesota Timberwolves
    • No. 1: 5.3%
    • Top-3: 18.3%
    • Lowest pick: No. 9
    • Note: Timberwolves won tiebreaker with Knicks.
  7. New York Knicks
    • No. 1: 5.3%
    • Top-3: 18.2%
    • Lowest pick: No. 10
    • Note: Knicks lost tiebreaker with Timberwolves.
  8. Sacramento Kings
    • No. 1: N/A
    • Top-3: 2.5%
    • Lowest pick: No. 11
    • Note: Sixers have right to swap picks with Kings, rendering No. 1 pick impossible and greatly reducing odds of top-3 pick.
    • Note: Pick will be sent to Bulls if not in top 10 (odds: 0.01%).
  9. Dallas Mavericks
    • No. 1: 1.7%
    • Top-3: 6.1%
    • Lowest pick: No. 12
  10. New Orleans Pelicans
    • No. 1: 1.1%
    • Top-3: 4.0%
    • Lowest pick: No. 13
    • Note: Pick will be sent to Kings if not in top 3 (odds: 96.0%).
  11. Charlotte Hornets
    • No. 1: 0.8%
    • Top-3: 2.9%
    • Lowest pick: No. 14
  12. Detroit Pistons
    • No. 1: 0.7%
    • Top-3: 2.5%
    • Lowest pick: No. 14
  13. Denver Nuggets
    • No. 1: 0.6%
    • Top-3: 2.2%
    • Lowest pick: No. 14
  14. Miami Heat
    • No. 1: 0.5%
    • Top-3: 1.8%
    • Lowest pick: No. 14