Hoops Rumors Originals

Revisiting 2024/25 NBA Over/Under Predictions

Before the 2024/25 NBA season got underway, we polled Hoops Rumors readers on the win totals for each of the league’s 30 teams, using over/unders from major betting sites. From the Celtics (58.5 wins) to the Nets (19.5 wins), our readers made their picks for whether each team’s win total would land over or under the projected figures.

This is the eighth year we’ve run these polls. After finishing a little below .500 in each of the first three seasons, our voters broke through in 2020/21 with a 17-13 record and went 16-14 in each of the next three seasons. Did that winning streak extend to five straight years in ’24/25? Let’s check in on the results and find out…


Eastern Conference

Atlantic

  • Boston Celtics (Over 58.5 wins): (61-21)
  • New York Knicks (Over 53.5 wins): (51-31)
  • Philadelphia 76ers (Under 52.5 wins): (24-58)
  • Toronto Raptors (Under 30.5 wins):  (30-52)
  • Brooklyn Nets (Over 19.5 wins):  (26-56)

Central

  • Milwaukee Bucks (Over 50.5 wins):  (48-34)
  • Cleveland Cavaliers (Under 48.5 wins):  (64-18)
  • Indiana Pacers (Over 47.5 wins):  (50-32)
  • Chicago Bulls (Under 28.5 wins):  (39-43)
  • Detroit Pistons (Over 24.5 wins):  (44-38)

Southeast

  • Orlando Magic (Over 47.5 wins):  (41-41)
  • Miami Heat (Under 44.5 wins):  (37-45)
  • Atlanta Hawks (Under 35.5 wins):  (40-42)
  • Charlotte Hornets (Under 29.5 wins):  (19-63)
  • Washington Wizards (Under 20.5 wins):  (18-64)

Eastern Conference record: 9-6

It was another impressive season in the Eastern Conference for our voters, who were just three Knicks wins away from going five-for-five in the Atlantic Division.

There were a couple of big misses elsewhere — the Cavaliers surpassed their over/under of 48.5 wins in February, for instance. But for the most part, the results here were very strong.


Western Conference

Northwest

  • Oklahoma City Thunder (Over 56.5 wins):  (68-14)
  • Minnesota Timberwolves (Over 52.5 wins):  (49-33)
  • Denver Nuggets (Over 51.5 wins):  (50-32)
  • Utah Jazz (Under 29.5 wins):  (17-65)
  • Portland Trail Blazers (Under 22.5 wins):  (36-46)

Pacific

  • Phoenix Suns (Over 50.5 wins):  (36-46)
  • Sacramento Kings (Over 47.5 wins):  (40-42)
  • Golden State Warriors (Under 44.5 wins):  (48-33)
  • Los Angeles Lakers (Under 43.5 wins):  (50-32)
  • Los Angeles Clippers (Under 39.5 wins):  (50-32)

Southwest

  • Dallas Mavericks (Over 49.5 wins):  (39-43)
  • Memphis Grizzlies (Under 47.5 wins):  (48-33)
  • New Orleans Pelicans (Under 46.5 wins):  (21-61)
  • Houston Rockets (Under 43.5 wins):  (52-30)
  • San Antonio Spurs (Under 36.5 wins):  (34-48)

Western Conference record: 4-11

Yikes. There was no shortage of surprises in the Western Conference this season, starting with the 2024 NBA Finalists in Dallas finishing below .500 and a 49-win Suns team sliding by 13 games in 2024/25. There were some tough-luck misses here too, with the Nuggets falling short of their over/under mark by just two wins and the Grizzlies surpassing theirs by a single victory.

But these results tell us that the Pacific Division, in particular, was tough to get a feel for entering the season. The final standings in the Pacific were almost the exact opposite of what oddsmakers were projecting coming into the fall, with our voters betting wrong on all five teams.


Overall record: 13-17

Well, it was a good run. After four straight years above .500, our voters finally posted a losing record for the first time since 2019/20. A 13-17 mark is nothing to be ashamed of — no one beats the house forever, and the fact that so many teams were so hard to pin down this season reflects the fact that it was a fun, unpredictable year.

Looking back at the preseason projections, along with your predictions, which team surprised or disappointed you the most? Jump into the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Poll: Who Will Win Tuesday’s Play-In Games?

The Grizzlies were tied for second place in the West as recently as March 14, while the Warriors held a top-five spot in the conference for the entire first week of April. However, neither Memphis nor Golden State was able to lock up a guaranteed playoff spot in the final days of the regular season.

The two teams will face one another on Tuesday in the No. 7 vs. No. 8 play-in game for the Western Conference, with the winner earning the right to enter the playoffs as the seventh seed and match up with Houston in round one.

Although the Warriors and Grizzlies finished the season with matching 48-34 records, the two clubs were headed in opposite directions down the stretch.

Hours after finalizing a trade for Jimmy Butler on February 6, Golden State fell to 25-26 on the season and held the No. 10 seed in the West only by a tiebreaker. But the Warriors won Butler’s debut two days later and never fell below .500 again, finishing the season on a 23-8 run. During that stretch, Golden State had the NBA’s third-best winning percentage (.742), eight-best offensive rating (118.2) and top defensive rating (109.0).

The Warriors aren’t entering the postseason as one of the title favorites, having stumbled a little as of late — they would have clinched a playoff berth already if they hadn’t lost three of their last five games, including a disappointing defeat to the lottery-bound Spurs last Wednesday. But they’ve certainly looked better than the Grizzlies, whose season has been trending downward in recent months.

On the day of the trade deadline, the Grizzlies had a 35-16 record. But two days later, on the same day the Warriors won Butler’s debut, Memphis lost to Oklahoma City to kick off an uninspiring stretch that saw the team finish the season by going just 13-18. Lottery teams like Portland and Toronto had better records during that stretch than the Grizzlies, who ranked in the bottom half of the league in both offensive rating (115.6) and defensive rating (116.0) from Feb. 8 onward.

Oh, and Memphis also made a head coaching change during that time, replacing Taylor Jenkins with assistant Tuomas Iisalo on March 28. The Grizzlies have a 4-5 record since that change.

The Grizzlies have plenty of talent on their roster and Warriors stars Stephen Curry (thumb) and Butler (thigh) are dealing with nagging ailments, so the result of Tuesday’s Western Conference play-in game is hardly a foregone conclusion. Still, after accounting for the Warriors’ 3-1 record vs. Memphis this season and the fact that they’ll be hosting Tuesday’s play-in game in San Francisco, it’s not hard to understand why Golden State is considered a good bet to advance — BetOnline.ag has the Warriors listed as seven-point favorites.

Over in the East, it’s a battle of the year’s top Southeast teams on Tuesday, as the No. 7 Magic (41-41) host the No. 8 Hawks (40-42). The winner will claim the seventh seed and face Boston in the first round of the playoffs.

It has been an odd season in Orlando, where the Magic looked like one of the conference’s top teams in early going despite losing Paolo Banchero and then Franz Wagner to oblique tears that sidelined them for extended periods. But the Magic’s injury issues – which also ended Jalen Suggs‘ and Moritz Wagner‘s seasons early – eventually caught up with them, resulting in a 12-26 midseason swoon from December to March that cost the team a chance at a top-six seed.

Orlando finished the year strong, winning nine of its last 12 games, and performed very well defensively on the season as a whole, registering the league’s second-best defensive rating (109.1). But even with Banchero and Wagner on the court, the Magic struggled to score — their 108.9 offensive rating ranked 27th in the NBA, ahead of only Brooklyn, Charlotte, and Washington.

The Hawks, meanwhile, appeared to be in trouble when rising star forward Jalen Johnson went down in January with a season-ending shoulder injury. They were 22-22 as of Johnson’s last game and promptly fell several games below .500 without him before trading away second-leading scorer De’Andre Hunter at the trade deadline shortly thereafter.

But instead of continuing to slide down the standings and ending up in the lottery, Atlanta got a second wind, led by Trae Young, Onyeka Okongwu, Dyson Daniels, and Zaccharie Risacher, along with deadline additions like Caris LeVert, Georges Niang, and Terance Mann.

As good as Daniels has been defensively this season, the Hawks’ overall team defense has lagged behind — it was their offense that propelled them to a spot in the No. 7 vs. 8 play-in game. From March 6 onward, Atlanta went 12-8 and posted the second-best offensive rating in the Eastern Conference (120.4).

Tuesday’s matchup, in which the Magic are listed as five-point favorites, per BetOnline, could come down to how much headway the Hawks’ offensive weapons can make against one of the NBA’s best defensive units in Orlando.

We want to know what you think. Which two teams will claim playoff spots on Tuesday and which ones will have to try again on Friday to punch their tickets into round one?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section to weigh in with your thoughts and predictions.

What To Watch For On Final Day Of NBA’s Regular Season

All 30 NBA teams have Saturday off and will play their regular season finales on Sunday. Here are a few things worth keeping an eye on during the season’s final weekend:


Playoff berths and seeding

The Eastern Conference postseason seeding has already been set, as we outlined on Friday night. However, the Western Conference playoff picture remains very much in flux.

The Thunder wrapped up the No. 1 seed weeks ago and the Rockets and Lakers have since clinched the second and third seeds, respectively. But at least two teams remain in play for each of the other seven spots in the West, with an incredible five clubs still in the mix for the No. 7 seed.

Here are the current standings from Nos. 4 through 10:

  1. Denver Nuggets (49-32)
  2. Los Angeles Clippers (49-32)
  3. Golden State Warriors (48-33)
  4. Minnesota Timberwolves (48-33)
  5. Memphis Grizzlies (47-34)
  6. Sacramento Kings (39-42)
  7. Dallas Mavericks (39-42)

And here are the relevant Sunday matchups involving those teams:

  • Denver Nuggets at Houston Rockets
  • Los Angeles Clippers at Golden State Warriors
  • Utah Jazz at Minnesota Timberwolves
  • Dallas Mavericks at Memphis Grizzlies
  • Phoenix Suns at Sacramento Kings

There are too many possible scenarios to list them all here, but the NBA has published a handy chart (on Twitter) explaining all of the various outcomes. In short, the Nuggets, Clippers, Warriors, and Timberwolves are vying for the final three guaranteed playoff spots and each need a win to clinch their spot in the top six of the West.

The Nuggets would also clinch a playoff spot if the Warriors or Timberwolves lose, while the Clippers can secure their spot if the Nuggets or Timberwolves lose and the Warriors can sew up a playoff berth with a Timberwolves loss. Minnesota must beat Utah in order to finish in the top six. If the Wolves and Nuggets both win, they’ll finish in the top six along with the winner of the Clippers/Warriors game.

The Grizzlies are locked into a play-in spot and will face whichever one of those four teams fails to clinch a playoff berth on Sunday. They still have a chance to host that 7 vs. 8 play-in game if they beat Dallas and Utah upsets Minnesota.

The only outstanding question for the Kings and Mavericks is which team will host their play-in game — Sacramento can lock up home court advantage with a victory over the Suns.


Traded draft picks and lottery odds

While a win on Sunday would guarantee the Kings a home play-in game, it would reduce the odds that they’ll hang onto their top-12 protected first-round pick, which they owe to the Hawks. In order to hang onto that pick, Sacramento must miss the playoffs and then either move into the top four in the draft lottery or pick 11th or 12th, ahead of multiple play-in teams.

That second scenario technically remains in play. For example, let’s say the Kings lose on Sunday and finish the season with a 39-43 record. And let’s say the Mavericks and Hawks each win on Sunday and finish 40-42, while the Bulls win too to end up at 39-43. Finally, let’s say the Heat claim one of the final playoff spots in the East via the play-in tournament.

In that scenario, there would be two lottery teams (either the Magic or Hawks and one Western team) with better records than the Kings, who would be in a coin flip with the Bulls for the No. 11 spot in the draft lottery. That would give the Kings a strong chance of hanging onto their protected first-rounder, but a lot would have to fall into place for that to happen, starting with a loss on Sunday.

There are several more traded first-round picks that have a wide range of outcomes depending on where teams finish in the standings and how the play-in tournament plays out. For example, the Grizzlies owe the Wizards their lottery-protected first-round pick. If Memphis wins its first play-in game, that pick figures to land at 17 or 18. On the other hand, if the Grizzlies lose consecutive play-in games, they’d keep the pick and Washington would instead get a pair of second-rounders.

Another example: the Timberwolves owe their first-round pick to the Jazz, with no protections. A win on Sunday for Minnesota would mean that pick lands in the late teens or early 20s. A loss, followed by a pair of losses in the play-in tournament, would make it a lottery pick.

Speaking of the lottery, there’s still some positioning to be finalized there too, starting with whether the Wizards and Jazz, who are tied at 17-64, will finish atop the lottery standings. If both teams win (or if they both lose) on Sunday, a coin flip will decide their order. The team that gets the No. 1 spot will have the same odds at a top-four pick as the No. 2 team, but won’t be able to fall further than fifth overall in the draft. The coin flip loser could fall as far as sixth if several teams leapfrog them into the top four.

Most other guaranteed lottery teams are locked into their respective positions, but the Trail Blazers (35-46) and Suns (36-45) at No. 9 and No. 10 could still end up swapping spots if Portland wins and Phoenix loses on Sunday. In that scenario, a coin flip would decide which team is ninth in the lottery order.


Award races

It may seem safe to assume that no awards will be decided based on what happens on the final day of the season, but you never know.

For instance, if the Nuggets lose on Sunday and end up falling all the way to No. 7 in the Western Conference standings, we can probably just hand the MVP trophy to Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. On the other hand, if Nikola Jokic helps Denver clinch the No. 4 seed with a 50-point triple-double, maybe that will sway some voters who are on the fence.

There are no serious candidates for end-of-season awards who absolutely need to play at least 20 minutes on Sunday in order to meet the NBA’s 65-game criteria. Technically, Raptors forward Scottie Barnes has one game to go to reach 65, but he’s pretty unlikely to warrant any real consideration for awards like All-NBA and All-Defense.


Teams with open roster spots

As we outlined on Thursday, there are still a handful of teams with open spots on their standard 15-man rosters. Those teams are now as follows:

  • Boston Celtics
  • Golden State Warriors
  • Toronto Raptors (2)

The Mavericks (Brandon Williams) and Pelicans (Elfrid Payton) have signed players since Thursday to fill spots on their 15-man rosters, and reports have indicated that the Celtics (JD Davison) and Raptors (A.J. Lawson and Colin Castleton) have lined up deals for their openings too. So the Warriors are really the only team we’re waiting on here.

It’s not unprecedented for a team to leave a roster spot open at the end of the season, but it’s pretty rare — all 30 teams finished the season with full 15-man squads in each of the past three years.

That makes the Warriors a good bet to make a roster move before their final game tips off on Sunday, even if it’s as simple as promoting a two-way player to a standard contract to make him postseason-eligible.

2025 NBA Draft Dates, Deadlines To Watch

We’re still nearly two-and-a-half months away from the 2025 NBA draft, but before we get to June 25, there are several other important dates and deadlines on the calendar. Here are some of those dates and deadlines worth keeping an eye on:


April 26 (11:59 pm ET): Deadline for early entrants to declare for the draft

College and international players who aren’t automatically draft-eligible this year have until the end of the day on April 26 to submit their names into the 2025 NBA draft pool. Those early entrants can withdraw their names later if they decide they’re not quite ready to go pro, though if college players want to maintain their NCAA eligibility, they can’t hire an agent who’s not certified by the NCAA.

Once the early entrant list is officially set, NBA teams can begin conducting or attending workouts for those players.

May 9-11: NBA G League Combine

The NBA has experimented in recent years with the format of this event, which was previously known as the G League Elite Camp. It was revamped in 2019 and consisted that year of 40 veteran G League invitees participating in the first half of the event, followed by 40 top draft-eligible players (who weren’t invited to the actual combine) taking part in the second half.

However, after being canceled in 2020 due to COVID-19, the Elite Camp only featured 40 draft-eligible prospects, without the G League players, when it returned in 2021. That format has carried over to subsequent years, with the league inviting between 44 and 50 prospects who didn’t make the initial list of invitees for the NBA’s actual draft combine.

While the event has been rebranded again this year as the G League Combine, there’s no indication at this point that the format will change as well. Assuming it remains the same, several standouts from the G League combine will likely be invited to remain in Chicago for the full-fledged combine that follows.

May 12: NBA draft lottery

The 2025 draft lottery will be the seventh one employing the format that was introduced in 2019. With the lottery odds flattened out, the NBA’s worst team has a 14% shot at the No. 1 overall pick, as opposed to the 25% chance it had prior to ’19.

Although the current system reduced the odds of the league’s very worst teams claiming the picks at the top of the draft, we had gone a few years without any major surprises. That changed in 2024, when the Hawks jumped up from 10th in the lottery standings to nab the No. 1 overall pick, which they used on Zaccharie Risacher.

If we get another surprise in this year’s lottery, it figures to be even more meaningful than it was for Atlanta in 2024, since Duke star Cooper Flagg is considered one of the top prospects of the past decade and is viewed as a lock to be 2025’s No. 1 overall pick. That wasn’t the case for Risacher a year ago, when the race for the top pick was more wide open.

May 11-18: NBA draft combine

This week-long event, which takes place annually in Chicago, allows NBA teams to get a first-hand look at many of the year’s top draft-eligible players.

The combine is often particularly important for early entrants who have yet to decide whether or not to stay in the draft. The feedback they get at the combine could go a long way toward dictating whether they keep their names in the draft or return to school for another year.

In the past, the draft lottery has taken place after the conclusion of the combine. The NBA flipped the two events on its calendar last year and is sticking with that schedule in 2025. The May 12 lottery results figure to have an impact on which teams focus on which lottery-caliber players in Chicago.

May 28 (11:59 pm ET): NCAA early entrant withdrawal deadline

College underclassmen – and seniors who are eligible to play for more one season – who want to retain their NCAA eligibility will have to withdraw their names from the draft pool by May 28. NBA rules call for a later withdrawal deadline, but the NCAA has its own set of rules that say the deadline is 10 days after the combine ends.

An early entrant could technically wait until after May 28 to withdraw from the draft and could still retain his NBA draft eligibility for a future year. However, he would forfeit his amateur status in that scenario, making him ineligible to return to his NCAA squad. College players who want to play overseas for a year or two before entering the NBA draft could take this route.

June 15 (5:00 pm ET): NBA early entrant withdrawal deadline

This is the NBA’s final deadline for early entrants to withdraw their names from the draft pool and retain their draft eligibility for a future year.

By this point, we generally know whether or not a college player decided to keep his name in the draft, but this is an important deadline for international players, who aren’t subject to the same restrictions as college players. We’ll likely hear about several international early entrants withdrawing from the draft during the days leading up to June 15.

June 25 and 26: NBA draft days

The most exciting few weeks of the NBA offseason unofficially get underway on draft day, which is often when several of the first major trades of the summer are completed and when we get a sense of which direction certain teams are heading.

In 2024, for the first time, “draft day” actually referred to two days, as the NBA and NBPA agreed to make the draft a multi-day event, with the first round occurring on a Wednesday and the second round taking place on a Thursday. The league is sticking with that format this year, with round one scheduled for Wednesday, June 25 and round two to follow on Thursday, June 26.

The change drew mixed reviews from fans a year ago.

The NBA’s thinking in splitting the draft into two days was that it would benefit teams, who get to regroup halfway through the draft to reset their boards and have more time to consider possible trades; the league’s broadcast partners, who will be able to devote more attention to second-round picks that are often made when the television broadcast is in the midst of an ad break; and fans, who won’t have to stay up so late into the night to see the end of the second round.

In 2024, the first day of the draft began at 8:00 pm Eastern on Wednesday, with day two starting at 4:00 pm ET on Thursday. A U.S. presidential debate took place on the evening of day two last year, so it remains to be seen if the NBA will stick with that afternoon start time for the second round or if it will also get the prime-time treatment in 2025.

The hours and days after the second round ends will be hugely important for many of this year’s draft-eligible prospects — a ton of players who aren’t selected with one of the 59 picks in the draft will reach agreements shortly thereafter to play for an NBA team’s Summer League squad, to attend training camp with a club, or to sign a two-way contract.

Final Check-In On Open NBA Roster Spots

With just four days left in the NBA’s regular season, there are still a few teams around the league with open 15-man roster spots, and there’s little downside to filling those openings before the regular season ends.

For playoff teams, adding one more player would create a little extra depth in the event of postseason injuries or garbage-time minutes. For non-playoff teams, it makes sense to try to convince a young player to accept a multiyear deal that includes little or no guaranteed money beyond this season, since it gives those teams another option for next year’s roster.

Even clubs over the luxury tax line or right up against it shouldn’t have a problem paying one more player a prorated minimum salary for the last day or two of the season — the prorated minimum for a veteran on a rest-of-season deal is just $11,997 per day, which is a drop in the bucket for NBA franchises.

With all that in mind, it’s safe to assume that some – if not all – of the teams with open roster spots should fill them by Sunday. Here are those teams:

  • Boston Celtics
  • Dallas Mavericks
  • Golden State Warriors
  • New Orleans Pelicans
  • Toronto Raptors (2)

The Mavericks‘ plans for their open 15-man roster spot have already been reported. They intend to promote two-way player Brandon Williams to a standard contract and likely would’ve done it much sooner if they’d had enough room under their hard cap to do so.

The Pelicans technically have 16 players on standard contracts as of today, but two of those players – Elfrid Payton and Kylor Kelley – are on 10-day contracts that will expire this weekend. I’d expect New Orleans to look to sign Payton, Kelley or someone else to a multiyear contract that gives the club some roster flexibility beyond this season.

The Raptors opened up a pair of roster spots on Thursday by waiving Orlando Robinson and Cole Swider, both of whom were on rest-of-season contracts. Their reported plan is to fill those two spots in the coming days with players on multiyear deals — Robinson and/or Swider may even return, though Colin Castleton is reportedly also on Toronto’s radar, and a promotion of two-way player A.J. Lawson is a possibility too.

The other two teams here – the Celtics and Warriors – are either assured of a playoff spot (in Boston’s case) or are well positioned to make it (in Golden State’s case). But that doesn’t necessarily mean each of those teams will sign a win-now veteran as a 15th man. They already have enough depth on their respective rosters that they may prefer to add a younger prospect – perhaps a two-way player or someone from the G League – on a multiyear deal.

While there are only five teams with open spots on their 15-man rosters, that doesn’t necessarily mean those five clubs are the only candidates to make roster moves in the next few days.

Teams without an open roster spot could waive one of their current 15 players in order to make room for a new addition or a promoted two-way player. They’ll likely have to make that decision very soon though — 4:00 pm Central time on Thursday is the deadline to waive a player on an expiring contract in order to ensure he clears waivers before the final day of the regular season, as Bobby Marks of ESPN tweets.

The Cavaliers (Chuma Okeke), Kings (Terence Davis), and Knicks (P.J. Tucker) are among the teams who had been carrying an open 15-man roster spot but who have filled that opening this month.

Finally, it’s worth noting that there are a handful of clubs with two-way contract slots available, but the deadline for two-way signings passed in early March, so those roster spots will remain open.

Hoops Rumors Glossary: Non-Bird Rights

Players and teams have to meet certain criteria to earn Bird rights and Early Bird rights, but Non-Bird rights are practically a given.

They apply to a player who has spent a single season or less with his team, as long as he finishes the season on an NBA roster and is on a standard contract (rather than a hardship or 10-day deal). Even a player who signs a rest-of-season contract right before the regular season finale and spends just a single day with his club would have Non-Bird rights in the offseason.

Teams can also claim Non-Bird rights on Early Bird free agents if they renounce them. The primary motivator to do so would be to allow the team to sign the free agent to a one-year contract, a move that’s not permitted via Early Bird rights.

Teams are eligible to sign their own free agents using the Non-Bird exception for a salary starting at 120% of the player’s previous salary, 120% of the minimum salary, or the amount of a qualifying offer (if the player is a restricted free agent), whichever is greatest. Contracts can be for up to four years, with 5% annual raises.

The cap hold for a Non-Bird player is 120% of his previous salary, unless his previous salary was the minimum. In that case, the cap hold is equivalent to the two-year veteran’s minimum salary. If a Non-Bird free agent only has one year of NBA experience, his cap hold is equivalent to the one-year veteran’s minimum salary.

The salary limitations that apply to Non-Bird rights are more severe than those pertaining to Bird rights or Early Bird rights, so in many cases, the Non-Bird exception may not be enough to retain a well-regarded free agent. For instance, the Bucks held Malik Beasley‘s Non-Bird rights last summer, but couldn’t have used them to match or exceed the offer the veteran wing received from the Pistons.

Because Beasley was on a minimum-salary contract in 2023/24, Milwaukee’s ability to offer a raise using the Non-Bird exception was extremely limited — the Bucks would have only been able to offer 120% of Beasley’s minimum salary using his Non-Bird rights, which worked out to $3,586,260. Detroit used its cap room to give Beasley a one-year, $6MM contract, easily topping Milwaukee’s maximum offer.

The Sixers may end up in a similar situation this offseason with Guerschon Yabusele, who will only have Non-Bird rights after playing out a one-year, minimum-salary contract. Philadelphia will only be able to offer him up to 120% of his 2025/26 minimum salary using the Non-Bird exception. That would work out to a projected $2.85MM.

Given how well Yabusele has performed this season, that likely won’t be enough to retain them, meaning the cap-strapped Sixers could have trouble making a competitive offer for the big man unless they can free up some mid-level exception money.

Holding Non-Bird rights on a free agent didn’t help the Bucks with Beasley and might not be enough for the Sixers with Yabusele, but there are cases in which the exception proves useful.

The Celtics, for instance, only had Non-Bird rights on Neemias Queta last offseason, but that gave them the ability to offer him a three-year contract, exceeding the one- or two-year minimum-salary offer they could have made if he were an outside free agent. Non-Bird rights also came in handy for a series of players involved in sign-and-trades, including Cody Zeller (Pelicans to Hawks), Charlie Brown Jr. (Knicks to Hornets), and Shake Milton (Knicks to Nets).

The higher a player’s previous salary is, the less restrictive his Non-Bird rights are. For example, after signing with the Spurs last summer, Chris Paul will only have Non-Bird rights this summer, but San Antonio would have significantly more flexibility than Denver will with Westbrook, since Paul is earning a $10.46MM base salary this season. The Spurs could offer Paul a starting salary of up to $12.55MM (120% of $10.46MM) using the Non-Bird exception.

Finally, it’s worth noting that a player who re-signs with his previous team on a one-year deal (or a two-year deal that includes a second-year option) and will have Early Bird or Bird rights at the end of that contract would surrender those rights if he consents to a trade. In that scenario, he’d only finish the season with Non-Bird rights. No players in that position this year consented to a trade.


Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post.

Earlier versions of this post were published in previous years by Luke Adams and Chuck Myron.

Community Shootaround: Sixth Man Of Year

According to the oddsmakers, the Sixth Man of the Year award boils down to two Eastern Conference guards.

The Celtics’ Payton Pritchard is the solid favorite under the current Bet MGM betting lines. Pritchard has spent his entire five-year career with Boston, though he was in and out of its rotation two seasons ago and nearly got traded. The late 2020 first-round pick eventually received an extension and has become an essential and durable part of the Celtics’ second unit.

Pritchard appeared in every game last season and has only missed two games this season. He has posted solid numbers across the board, averaging 14.2 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.4 assists and 0.9 steals per night. He’s shooting 46.6 percent from the field and 41.3 percent on 3-pointers with a high volume — an average of eight per game.

Pritchard has exceeded the 20-point mark 21 times, including a 43-point eruption against the Trail Blazers.

Pritchard’s main challenger for the award is the Pistons’ Malik Beasley. Entering Sunday’s action, Beasley had made a league-high 292 three-pointers, which is somewhat remarkable for a reserve.

Part of the reason is Beasley’s availability — he hasn’t missed a game for the league’s most surprising team. Beasley has posted averages of 16.3 points, 2.7 rebounds and 1.7 assists and 0.9 steals per contest. He’s shooting 43.6 percent overall while averaging just 3.7 two-point attempts per game. He’s taking an average of 9.2 threes per contest and hitting at a 42.3 percent success rate.

Beasley started regularly for the Bucks last season but didn’t attract a lot of interest in the free agent market. He signed a one-year, $6MM contract with Detroit, which has proven to be a huge bargain.

Pritchard has a more versatile role as a combo guard, while Beasley is mainly relied upon for instant offense. Pritchard has the advantage of playing for one of the league’s premier teams. Beasley has been a major reason why Detroit has become just the second team in NBA history to triple its win total from the previous season.

That brings us to today’s topic: Who’s your selection for the Sixth Man of the Year award – the Celtics’ Payton Pritchard or the Pistons’ Malik Beasley? Or is there another player more worthy of that honor?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.

Community Shootaround: Western Conference Playoff Race

The Thunder already secured the top seed in the Western Conference and seem on their way to clinching the top overall seed entering the 2025 playoffs. However, the five remaining guaranteed playoff spots in the West are still up for grabs.

The Rockets have been playing excellent basketball over the past few weeks and have surged up to No. 2 in the West with a 48-26 record. Only a catastrophic collapse would prevent them from earning a top-six seed, as they hold a 5.5-game lead on the No. 7 Warriors with eight games remaining.

The Nuggets, who are currently the No. 3 seed with a 47-28 record, are also in a strong position to earn a guaranteed playoff berth, as they’re four games up on Golden State with seven games remaining. It’s worth noting that Houston and Denver have among the most difficult remaining schedules, per Tankathon, but both clubs have a decent cushion on their closest competitors.

Saturday’s game between the Lakers and Grizzlies was a key matchup for both teams. The No. 4 Lakers (45-29) emerged victorious and earned the head-to-head tiebreaker on the No. 5 Grizzlies (44-30).

Even after the win though, the Lakers are just 5-8 over their past 13 games. They also have the second-hardest remaining schedule of any team, including four matchups against Oklahoma City and Houston over their final eight games.

The slumping Grizzlies are just 1.5 games ahead of the Clippers and Warriors, who hold identical 42-31 records, and two games up on the No. 8 Timberwolves (42-32). The Clips hold the tiebreaker on the Dubs, which is why they’re currently the No. 6 seed.

To word it in a different way: Only three games separate the Nos. 4-8 seeds in the West. And by opponent winning percentage, Minnesota has — by far — the easiest schedule left of the group.

Of the five teams bunched together in the standings, the Clippers and Warriors are the only ones with nine games left; the other three each have eight.

Securing a top-six seed is critical, as it ensures teams will make the playoffs outright. Those who fall outside of the top six will have to compete in the play-in tournament to try and claim the final two playoff spots in the West. Dallas, Sacramento and Phoenix are essentially in a three-way race for the ninth and tenth seeds and thus the final two spots in the play-in.

We want to know what you think. Aside from the Thunder, which other five teams will secure top-six seeds in the West? Which teams will be heading to the play-in tournament? Head to the comments section to weigh in.

Hoops Rumors Glossary: Early Bird Rights

Bird rights offer teams the chance to sign their own free agents without regard to the salary cap, but they don’t apply to every player. Other salary cap exceptions are available for teams to keep players who don’t qualify for Bird rights. One such exception is the Early Bird, which applies to players formally known as Early Qualifying Veteran Free Agents.

While the Bird exception is for players who have spent three seasons with one club without changing teams as a free agent, Early Bird rights are earned after just two such seasons. Virtually all of the same rules that apply to Bird rights apply to Early Bird rights, with the requirements condensed to two years rather than three.

Players still see their Bird clocks restart by changing teams via free agency, being claimed in an expansion draft, or having their rights renounced. A player who is traded can also have his Bird clock reset if he approves a move after having re-signed with his previous team on a one-year contract (or a one-year contract with a second-year option) earlier in the league year.

As is the case with Bird rights, a player’s clock stops when he’s released by a team and clears waivers, but it would pick up where it left off if he re-signs with that same team down the road without joining another club in the interim.

For instance, if the Lakers were to re-sign Christian Wood this week, he would have Early Bird rights this offseason because – even though he was waived in February – he would be on track to finish a second consecutive season with Los Angeles and didn’t join another team in the interim.

Conversely, Lamar Stevens is an example of a player who won’t have Early Bird rights this offseason even though he’s finishing a second consecutive season with the Grizzlies. Stevens signed a contract with the Pistons between his stints in Memphis, resetting his Bird clock.

The crucial difference between Bird rights and Early Bird rights involves the limitations on contract offers. Bird players can receive maximum-salary deals for up to five years, whereas the most a team can offer an Early Bird free agent without using cap space is 175% of his previous salary (up to the max) or 105% of the league-average salary in the previous season, whichever is greater.

These offers are also capped at four years rather than five, and the new contracts must run for at least two years — the second season can be non-guaranteed, but can’t be a team or player option. Raises are maxed out at 8% per season.

Ty Jerome (Cavaliers) and Bruce Brown (Pelicans) are among the notable free agents who will have Early Bird rights during the 2025 offseason. Fred VanVleet (team option; Rockets) and Kelly Oubre (player option; Sixers) would join that group if their options are declined.

In some instances, teams can benefit from having Early Bird rights instead of full Bird rights if they’re trying to preserve cap space. The cap hold for an Early Bird player is 130% of his previous salary, significantly less than most Bird players, whose cap holds range from 150-300% of their previous salaries.

However, having a player’s Early Bird rights instead of his full Bird rights puts a team at a disadvantage in other cases. For example, when Isaiah Hartenstein reached free agency in 2024, his Early Bird rights limited the Knicks to a maximum four-year offer of $64.2MM ($72.5MM after incentives), a figure the Thunder had no problem topping when they signed Hartenstein to a three-year, $87MM deal.

In order to match or exceed Oklahoma City’s offer, New York would have had to use cap room, which the team didn’t have available — having Hartenstein’s full Bird rights would’ve allowed the Knicks to give him a far more substantial contract without requiring cap space.

Meanwhile, some players with limited NBA experience are subject to a special wrinkle involving Early Bird rights, called the Gilbert Arenas provision, which applies to players who have only been in the league for one or two years. We cover the Arenas provision in a separate glossary entry, so you can read up on the details there.

Essentially, the Arenas provision protects teams from a situation like the ones the Knicks found themselves in with Hartenstein, allowing them to match offer sheets on their restricted free agents without necessarily using Bird rights or cap room to do so.

During the 2023 offseason, Lakers guard Austin Reaves and Pelicans forward Herbert Jones were both Arenas free agents. Another Laker, Max Christie, and Pistons forward Simone Fontecchio were among the RFAs who fit the bill a year ago. There are no notable restricted free agents in 2025 on track to be subject to the Arenas provision, though there might be a small handful who fall into that category if they receive qualifying offers after having team options declined.

Finally, one more distinction between Bird rights and Early Bird rights applies to waivers. Players who are claimed off waivers retain their Early Bird rights, just as they would if they were traded. Those who had full Bird rights instead see those reduced to Early Bird rights if they’re claimed off waivers.

This rule stems from a 2012 settlement between the league and the union in which J.J. Hickson was given a special exception and retained his full Bird rights for the summer of 2012 even though he had been claimed off waivers that March.


Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post.

Earlier versions of this post were published in previous years by Luke Adams and Chuck Myron.

Hoops Rumors Glossary: Bird Rights

The Bird exception, named after Larry Bird, is a rule included in the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement that allows teams to go over the salary cap to re-sign their own players. A player who qualifies for the Bird exception, formally referred to as a Qualifying Veteran Free Agent, is said to have “Bird rights.”

The most basic way for a player to earn Bird rights is to play for the same team for at least three seasons, either on a long-term deal or on separate one- or two-year contracts. Still, there are other criteria. A player retains his Bird rights in the following scenarios:

1. He changes teams via trade.

For instance, the Hawks will hold Caris LeVert‘s Bird rights when he reaches free agency this offseason, despite just acquiring him in February. His Bird clock didn’t reset when he was traded from Cleveland to Atlanta.

2. He finishes a third season with a team after having only signed for a partial season with the club in the first year.

The Cavaliers signed Sam Merrill during the second half of the 2022/23 season, adding him to their roster in March 2023. When his contract expires this offseason, Merrill will have Bird rights despite not spending three full seasons with Cleveland, because that partial season in ’22/23 started his Bird clock.

3. He signs a full-season contract (ie. not a 10-day deal), his team waives him, and he cleared waivers. He subsequently re-signs with the club (without joining another team in the interim) and ultimately remains under contract through a third season.

This one’s a little confusing, but let’s use former Lakers big man Christian Wood as an example. After spending the 2023/24 season with Los Angeles and opening the ’24/25 season on the roster, Wood was waived by the team in February.

If the Lakers were to re-sign Wood in July without him joining a new team in the interim, his Bird clock would pick up where it left off. He’d have full Bird rights in the summer of 2026, since he would’ve spent part or all of each of the previous three seasons with the Lakers without changing teams in between.

Although the Lakers could restart Wood’s Bird clock by re-signing him, they wouldn’t be able to use any form of Bird rights to add him to their roster this offseason — they would have to use cap room or another exception to do so. His Bird clock would only resume once he’s back under contract.

This rule also applies to players who are waived after they already have Bird rights. For example, let’s say the Heat were to waive Duncan Robinson this offseason before his $19.9MM salary for 2025/6 becomes guaranteed.

Miami, which doesn’t project to have cap room this summer, would have no means to re-sign Robinson except via the minimum salary exception or perhaps the mid-level exception, since waiving him would mean losing his Bird rights. But if they did find a way to re-add him on a one-year contract after waiving him, the Heat would regain Robinson’s full Bird rights in 2026.


A player sees the clock on his Bird rights reset to zero in the following scenarios:

  1. He changes teams via free agency.
  2. He is waived and is not claimed on waivers (except as in scenario No. 3 above).
  3. His rights are renounced by his team. However, as in scenario No. 3 above, a player’s Bird clock picks up where it left off if he re-signs with the club that renounced them without having signed with another NBA team. For example, Kelly Oubre had Non-Bird rights last offseason, then had those rights renounced by the Sixers as they freed up extra cap room. Since Oubre eventually signed a new deal with Philadelphia, his Bird clock picked up where it left off — if he picks up his 2025/26 player option, he would have full Bird rights during the 2026 offseason.
  4. He is selected in an expansion draft.

Players on two-way contracts accumulate Bird rights in the same way that players on standard contracts do. Jazz center Micah Potter has been under contract with Orlando on two-way deals in each of the past three seasons, so if he remains on his current two-way deal through the end of 2024/25, he’ll have full Bird rights this summer.

If a player who would have been in line for Bird rights at the end of the season is waived and claimed off waivers, he would retain only Early Bird rights.

It’s also worth noting that there’s one specific scenario in which a player with Bird rights can lose them in a trade. A player who re-signs with his previous team on a one-year contract (or a one-year deal with a second-year option) would have his Bird clock reset if he’s traded later that season. As such, he receives the ability to veto trades so he can avoid that scenario.

[RELATED: Players who had the ability to veto trades in 2024/25]

The Bird exception was designed to allow teams to keep their best players, even when those teams don’t have the cap room necessary to do so.

When a player earns Bird rights, he’s eligible to re-sign with his team for up to five years and for any price up to his maximum salary (with 8% annual raises) when he becomes a free agent, no matter how much cap space the team has — or doesn’t have.

The maximum salary varies from player to player depending on how long he has been in the league, but regardless of the precise amount, a team can exceed the salary cap to re-sign a player with Bird rights.

A team with a Bird free agent is assigned a “free agent amount” – also called a cap hold – worth either 190% of his previous salary (for a player with a salary below the league average) or 150% of his previous salary (for an above-average salary), up to the maximum salary amount.

For players coming off rookie scale contracts, the amounts of those cap holds are 300% and 250%, respectively. The Bulls, for instance, will have a cap hold worth $25,057,101 for Josh Giddey on their books this offseason — 300% of his $8,352,367 salary for 2024/25.

Chicago could renounce Giddey and generate an extra $25MM+ in cap flexibility, but doing so would cost the Bulls the ability to re-sign him using Bird rights, which would force them to use either cap room or a different cap exception to re-sign him. As such, we can probably count on Chicago keeping Giddey’s cap hold on the books until his free agency is resolved.


Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post.

Earlier versions of this post were published in previous years by Luke Adams and Chuck Myron.