Hoops Rumors Originals

Offseason Outlook: Memphis Grizzlies

Guaranteed Contracts

Options 

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (22nd overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $48,980,360
  • Options: $16,938,333
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $3,316,482
  • Cap Holds: $22,433,851
  • Total: $91,669,026

The man whose absence was most conspicuous the last time the Grizzlies played no doubt lingers in the back of the mind of everyone in the organization. Team officials probably won’t harbor too much anger at Zach Randolph for incurring a suspension for Game 7 against the Thunder, since his hit to the jaw of Steven Adams was such questionable grounds for a one-game ban that few, if any, expected the punishment to happen. Instead, the Grizzlies will ruminate on Z-Bo’s decision regarding his lucrative player extension for next season. He’s given little, if any, indication of his preference whether to opt in or hit the market, where he could cash in as the ninth-ranked player on the latest Hoops Rumors 2014 Free Agent Power Rankings.

Randolph bookended the season with assertions that he’d like to remain with the Grizzlies for the rest of his career. He also expressed a desire to continue playing alongside Marc Gasol, who can’t elect free agency until next year, a subtle indication that Randolph might prefer to opt in so that he and Gasol can go on the market together. Still, Randolph expressed frustration with trade rumors that invoked his name this season. Team sources were adamant in their denials, but Randolph said he was hurt by what he perceived as a lack of loyalty, and he cited the Spurs, Lakers and Heat as examples of teams that have developed long-term bonds and won with them.

It would be tough to imagine the Spurs making the cap-clearing moves necessary to get into a bidding war for the 32-year-old, but the Lakers will have plenty of cap room, and the Heat might be in play if their trio of stars depart. There surely would be no shortage of other teams eyeing Randolph if he were to hit the market. The belief around the league is that Randolph would be in line for a three-year deal worth $30-35MM, according to Marc Stein of ESPN.com. I wouldn’t be surprised if a team goes a little higher for a player whose 17.4 points per game and 18.3 PER were the best he’s posted in three years.

There’s plenty of value in opting out, given Randolph’s increased production this season and the prospect of suitors growing all the more wary of his age in another year. He’ll turn 33 in July, suggesting it’s time to secure another long-term contract. Still, Randolph doesn’t figure to command the nearly $17MM salary he’d make next season if he opted in. Agent Raymond Brothers will no doubt earn his commission even before he negotiates Randolph’s next contract as he gathers the intel necessary to advise his client.

If Randolph’s back, the Grizzlies would have enough commitments to put them over the salary cap, but they’d have plenty of room beneath the tax line if the latest $77MM luxury tax projection holds up. That’ll allow them to use the full value of the non-taxpayer’s mid-level exception, worth $5.305MM this year. There’s also a decent chance they’ll have room to use the $2.077MM biannual exception, and that chance would become a near-certainty if Randolph opts out and re-signs for a lower salary. Those loom as critical weapons for a front office that snagged Mike Miller and James Johnson at the minimum salary for this past season. Players who are bargains at the mid-level price can have an even more significant effect than minimum-salary gems, of course, so it’ll be interesting to see what CEO Jason Levien and company do with that sort of flexibility.

Randolph’s departure would give the Grizzlies even more money at their disposal, and they’d have about $11MM in cap flexibility without him. It would also present the team with an intriguing chance to change its identity from a traditional, bruising, post-oriented squad with two big men to a club based on spacing with a stretch power forward. Replacing Randolph with an outside shooter would help the team’s deficiencies in that department, and the return of a healthy Quincy Pondexter would add to the roster’s long-range firepower. The style would seem like a fit for the analytics-friendly Memphis front office, given how highly the greater advanced metrics community values the three-pointer.

It would nonetheless be difficult to change on the fly so quickly, particularly if the team wants to remain competitive and attractive to Gasol, who’s a free agent after next season. That’s why a strong push to sign Pau Gasol, Marc’s brother, would make sense regardless of the style of play Memphis chooses. The Grizzlies reportedly see any pursuit of Gasol as a secondary priority to Randolph, but that’s true of just about anything the team would do this offseason. Gasol appears have a decent chance of garnering a $10MM offer in free agency this summer, but the allure of playing with his brother on a winning team might be enough to inspire him to take a discount to return to Memphis, where he began his NBA career. Using the full mid-level on Pau Gasol as a backup should Randolph return might seem wasteful for a team in need of outside shooting, but having a first-rate reserve would be crucial, as Marc Gasol’s absence this year demonstrated.

Kosta Koufos is a capable backup, but he’s no Marc Gasol, and he’s no Pau Gasol, either, and the Grizzlies suffered when Marc was injured this season, costing them enough wins for them to wind up as the seventh seed. They proved they were much better than a seventh-place team against the Thunder, but it was also easy to see that the Grizzlies are still a player or two away from true title contention. It might not be necessary to waive Koufos and recoup most of his partially guaranteed salary for next season to upgrade the bench, but cutting ties with Koufos seems much more plausible than when the Grizzlies pulled off a shrewd trade to obtain him for Darrell Arthur last year.

Similarly, there doesn’t seem to be enough playing time to go around for Ed Davis, whose 6’10” size and pedigree as a former 13th overall pick might intrigue a team looking for a small-ball center on the cheap. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Grizzlies fail to tender him a qualifying offer, which would be worth more than $4MM. That’s more per year than Pondexter received on his extension this past autumn, and likely more than market value for Davis. The Grizzlies probably wouldn’t mind him back at Pondexter’s salary, but no more than that.

Miller has expressed a desire to return to the club “as long as everything is done fairly,” and while that might indicate that he’s unwilling to re-sign for the minimum salary, the Grizzlies could use his Non-Bird rights to give him a 20% raise, or the biannual for a larger bump. Retaining his shooting will likely be important to the club, but the Grizzlies will no doubt keep in mind that the oft-injured 34-year-old seems a long shot to play in all 82 games next year as he did this season. The Grizzlies will be without Nick Calathes for the first 13 games of next season thanks to his suspension for alleged use of Tamoxifen, so Beno Udrih appears a candidate to return on another minimum salary deal to back up Mike Conley.

The Grizzlies will have the sort of flexibility this summer that they haven’t enjoyed in the past few years regardless of whether Randolph opts out. Just how well they apply it will be pivotal not only for the team, but for the rest of the league, as Memphis lingers on the precipice of the title picture.

Cap footnotes

* — The Grizzlies waived Melo in August 2013 and used the stretch provision to spread his salary over three seasons.
** — If Randolph opts out, his cap hold would be equivalent to the maximum salary for a player of 10 or more years of experience, which will likely be around $20MM.
*** — Koufos’ salary becomes fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 30th.
**** — Calathes’ salary becomes fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before July 15th.
***** — Davis’ qualifying offer is $4,268,609.

ShamSports and Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ were used in the creation of this post.

Hoops Rumors Mock Draft 1.0

We’re only a month and a half from the much-anticipated 2014 NBA draft, to be held on June 26th at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn. We’re also less than two weeks from the May 20th draft lottery, which will determine the fate of a handful of teams that sure seemed to be jockeying for position down the stretch this past season.

The tanking in 2014 was a result of a combination of factors. Many NBA front offices have smartened up, realizing the most effective rebuilding method involves tearing down the foundation and collecting as many draft picks as possible along the way. This draft class is also among the most hyped in recent history. What we’re left with is eight teams potentially holding multiple first round picks and an approaching lottery that should be among the most publicized ever.

With the NBA’s April 27th Early Entry Eligibility Deadline behind us and the Chicago draft combine coming next week, it’s time for the first version of the Hoops Rumors Mock Draft. The picks won’t be locked in until the lottery, but we have made our selections below based on the most likely scenarios, by percentage. As we’ve done in previous years, these picks are based on what we’re hearing around the league, our player evaluations, and what we perceive to be a team’s draft needs.

As always, we welcome your opinion in the comments section.

  1. Milwaukee Bucks – Andrew Wiggins. There are teams out there that don’t have Wiggins atop their boards. Fortunately for the 19 year old, none of them are likely to have the top pick. Adding the Kansas star gives the new Milwaukee owners another high-ceiling youngster alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo to sell to their fanbase.
  2. Philadelphia 76ers – Jabari Parker. The Sixers want Wiggins; that much is fairly certain. And depending on the health of Embiid’s back, he will be an enticing selection for Philly, as well. But with Nerlens Noel already in the fold, the Sixers need a traditional scorer on the wing first and foremost and Parker is exactly that.
  3. Orlando Magic – Joel Embiid. Embiid isn’t an ideal fit in Orlando, but he is simply too talented to slide past No. 3, assuming his back checks out. Perhaps this could result in a trade. Dante Exum sure would look good next to Victor Oladipo. Orlando really could use a wing, but with Wiggins and Parker off the board that will have to wait.
  4. Utah Jazz – Dante Exum. Parker would be the home run pick for the Jazz should they get lucky on May 20. They need scoring and could have to replace restricted free agent Gordon Hayward. Exum would be a nice consolation, given his ability to create offense for himself and others. Exum and Trey Burke could make for a dynamic backcourt.
  5. Boston Celtics – Noah Vonleh. It might be premature at this stage, but it sounds like Vonleh is gaining enough steam to end up as a top-five pick. The C’s would undoubtedly prefer Embiid, but he won’t make it to No. 5. Kentucky’s Randle is a safer selection, but he would give Boston more of what it has (albeit an upgraded version thereof). Aaron Gordon might be in consideration as well.
  6. Los Angeles Lakers – Julius Randle. In typical Laker fashion, a guy who was thought to be a surefire top-five pick drops to Los Angeles at No. 6. Despite being only 19, Randle is NBA-ready, though questions about his upside remain. Will he struggle against NBA length? And will the jumper he was supposed to have at Kentucky resurface? If those answers go the right way, he’s a steal at sixth overall.
  7. Sacramento Kings – Marcus Smart. What a difference a year makes. Smart could have been the No. 1 overall selection last June. Instead, he endured a rocky return to Stillwater (to say the least). With Isaiah Thomas’ future with the Kings in doubt, Smart would slide right in for him in Sacramento. The Kings would be getting a well-rounded player in Smart, but whether he has any elite NBA skills remains to be seen.
  8. Detroit Pistons – Aaron Gordon. If the board falls this way, you have to think someone would trade up for Gordon. Still, just 18 years old, he doesn’t really fit in Detroit, which needs more shooters to stretch the floor, but Gordon is just too talented and versatile to slide past eighth. With snipers like Nik Stauskas and Doug McDermott looming, don’t be surprised if a team holding a pick later in the lottery attempts to trade with the Pistons and nab Gordon here.
  9. Cleveland Cavaliers – Doug McDermott. Gordon is dream scenario for Cleveland, so expect the Cavs to make some noise if he drops anywhere near them. There is some Dario Saric buzz too, but the Cavs want to win now and Saric’s NBA timeline is still unknown. Enter Dougie McBuckets, who is ready to score next season for the playoff-hungry Cavs (but won’t do much for their pitiful perimeter D). Watch out for Jusuf Nurkic and James Young here as well.
  10. Philadelphia 76ers – Gary Harris. You have to think that the Sixers’ first selection would have a lot of bearing on who they take here, but GM Sam Hinkie has proven to be unpredictable. Michigan State’s Harris provides the type of defense that Parker doesn’t, and his lack of size is tolerable next to Michael Carter-Williams. Hinkie is in it for the long haul in Philly though, so nabbing a Saric-type here isn’t out of the question.
  11. Denver Nuggets – Nik Stauskas. The Denver backcourt has Ty Lawson and whole lot of question marks a year after failing to replace Andre Iguodala. Harris could fill that void, but with him off the board, Stauskas is the logical pick here. The Michigan sharpshooter is on the rise and, given his quasi-point guard skills, could eventually supplant McDermott as the top shooter off the board.
  12. Orlando Magic – Dario Saric. Philly or Orlando, as organizations building from the ground up, seem like possible destinations for Saric. Whether they land Embiid or Exum with their first pick, Saric would provide more upside to a roster full of it. The Magic have a need on the wing, making a flier on James Young or a more traditional selection of Rodney Hood remote possibilities.
  13. Minnesota Timberwolves – Rodney Hood. The Wolves need all the shooting they can get to go with Ricky Rubio. Interior defense is also high on the list, putting Jusuf Nurkic in the mix here. But ultimately the late-season emergence of Gorgui Dieng makes another shooter a more pressing need in Minnesota. This is a bit high for Hood, but with McDermott, Stauskas and Harris all gone, the Wolves are short on options.
  14. Phoenix Suns – James Young. The Suns have three first rounders and a gigantic hole at small forward, enabling them to shoot for the moon a couple times on a wing player. That is what they’d be doing with Young, who might not even be in the conversation here once teams see his bevy of skills in workouts. Either of a pair of UCLA guys — Kyle Anderson and Zach LaVine — might be options for Phoenix, too. The Suns also have the ammo to make a big trade.
  15. Atlanta Hawks – Zach LaVine. The Hawks and Suns have somewhat similar needs, so these two picks could easily be flip-flopped. At 15, LaVine brings some much-needed upside to Atlanta, though the UCLA product may not be NBA-ready for a few years. LaVine is skilled and highly athletic, but he’s rail-thin and needs time to develop an NBA body. If he can play point guard, that would just be a bonus next to Jeff Teague.
  16. Chicago Bulls – P.J. Hairston. This board couldn’t turn out better for Chicago, which adds a much-needed scorer in Hairston at No. 16. Hairston clearly has some off-the-court issues, but there’s probably not a better landing spot for him than with Tom Thibodeau (if he stays) and the Bulls’ rock-solid locker room. Hairston’s outside shooting and toughness would be a perfect addition in Chicago.
  17. Boston Celtics – Tyler Ennis. This would be a significant drop for Ennis, who many have pegged as a top-10 pick after a near-flawless freshman year at Syracuse. But I see size and athleticism shortcomings that might be exposed in workouts. If Ennis falls, nabbing him 17th would be a coup for Boston if it decides to move on from Rajon Rondo.
  18. Phoenix Suns – Clint Capela. Assuming they keep them, the Suns are going to grab some size with one of their three first round picks. At 18, the athleticism and upside of Capela is a better fit for the explosive offense of the Suns than the plodding Jusuf Nurkic. Capela is raw, making him the perfect selection for a team like Phoenix with multiple picks.
  19. Chicago Bulls – Adreian Payne. With Carlos Boozer likely on his way out of Chicago, the Bulls could use some size to go with Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson three picks after snagging Hairston. At 23 years old, Payne doesn’t offer much upside. But he can bang a bit down low and, like Hairston, he can knock down the three-pointer. If they get Derrick Rose back to full strength, the Bulls will need NBA-ready help.
  20. Toronto Raptors – Shabazz Napier. Most mocks have Napier as a late first-rounder. Then again, most NCAA brackets had his Huskies out long before the Final Four. The Raptors could use some size, but there won’t be much there at No. 20. The draft board leaves them with a plethora of athletic wings who overlap too much with the skill sets of DeMar DeRozan and Terrence Ross. They’ll opt for the instant offense of Napier instead. Kyle Anderson could also be in play.
  21. Oklahoma City Thunder – Jusuf Nurkic. The Thunder always have draft-and-stash potential and with two picks in the first round this year that won’t change. Though he lacks athleticism and has conditioning issues, Nurkic gives OKC more young size to go with Steven Adams. They probably won’t ever need big-time minutes from him, though his bulk and touch could get him on the court sooner than you think.
  22. Memphis Grizzlies – Kyle Anderson. There isn’t a harder prospect to put a finger on than Anderson. It’s hard to say whether he’ll be a fit in Memphis, but that is pretty much the case regarding every possible destination for Anderson and his unique skill set. What is definite is that the Grizzlies need help offensively and Anderson’s versatility and playmaking ability make him worth the risk at No. 22 for Memphis. He has glaring defensive shortcomings, but the Grizz have plenty of guys who specialize on that end already.
  23. Utah Jazz – Jerami Grant. With Exum in the fold at pick No. 4, the Jazz will be looking to add help on the wing. They’d ideally land a shot maker or a playmaker (Anderson?) here, but Grant’s upside is too high to pass up with those commodities off the board. His position depends on how he develops, but he has the tools to eventually play either the three or four in the NBA. He only stands 6’8″, but has a 7’2″ wingspan and top-shelf athleticism.
  24. Charlotte Bobcats – T.J. Warren. The Bobcats reside in the heart of ACC country, so they should have gotten a pretty close look at Warren, the conference’s Player of the Year. Warren’s jumper and his ability to defend are both question marks, but his proclivity for getting buckets is not. He doesn’t have the tools to start in the NBA, but his array of offensive moves can provide Charlotte with the depth and scoring potential the team covets at No. 24. Think Draymond Green.
  25. Houston Rockets – Elfrid Payton. Don’t be surprised if Payton isn’t available here, as his stock is on the rise. He isn’t an ideal fit for a team looking to contend now, but it’s tough to be convinced that Patrick Beverley or Jeremy Lin is the long-term answer at point guard in Houston. Any team willing to ignore the small school stigma will get a long, athletic point guard who can defend and dish the rock in Payton. Jarnell Stokes and C.J. Wilcox are also options here.
  26. Miami Heat – Cleanthony Early. With the best player in the world at the three, Early doesn’t seem to be an ideal fit in Miami. But his 6’8″ size will further enable Miami to do something it loves: play small. After he torched Kentucky in the NCAA Tournament, it would be shocking to see Early go this late. Such is life for an NBA prospect who is already 23 years old. Early can help now.
  27. Phoenix Suns – K.J. McDaniels. The Suns already grabbed a small forward in Young at No. 14, but if McDaniels makes it to No. 27 they shouldn’t resist adding another. The Clemson product is a bit undersized to play the three, but he compensates with elite leaping ability and lock-down defense, making him a safe bet to become an effective role player. With three picks, the Suns can afford to gamble that he becomes more.
  28. Los Angeles Clippers – Mitch McGary. Coming off a breakout performance in the 2013 NCAA tournament, back trouble limited McGary’s sophomore campaign at Michigan to eight games. Rather than face a one-year NCAA suspension, McGary will instead try to work his way back into first-round consideration. At 21 years old, he’s somewhat of a known quantity but might be worth a first-round pick for a Clippers team that should be looking for frontcourt depth.
  29. Oklahoma City Thunder – C.J. Wilcox. A sniper out of Washington, Wilcox is the type of specialist who often goes at the end of the first round to a contender that’s in need of instant help. Oklahoma City typically tends to be a little more creative than that, but the potential to take even a fraction of the scoring burden off Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook makes Wilcox worthy of consideration at No. 29. Plus, the Thunder took a bit of a gamble on Nurkic at No. 21.
  30. San Antonio Spurs – Jarnell Stokes. In Stokes, the Spurs will get a big body to go down low next year behind Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitter. Think of Stokes as a poor man’s Jared Sullinger. He has size, strength and an ability to finish in the post, but he will struggle against NBA length and could have problems with his weight.

Offseason Outlook: Chicago Bulls

Guaranteed Contracts

Options 

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • 1st Round (16th overall)
  • 1st Round (19th overall)
  • 2nd Round (49th overall)

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed Salary: $63,951,756
  • Options: $0
  • Non-Guaranteed Salary: $4,069,062
  • Cap Holds: $14,578,358
  • Total: $82,599,176

The possibilities for the Bulls offseason resemble the playoff scenarios for five teams separated by half a game at the top of the standings on the final day of the regular season. The summer ahead could break in myriad conceivable ways for Chicago, most of them giving the team a better shot at contention than seems fitting after the team spent the last three postseasons with with their title hopes, like Derrick Rose‘s knees, in tatters.

The most compelling outcome this summer would no doubt involve the acquisition of Carmelo Anthony, who appears to have put the Bulls atop his list of non-Knicks options for next season. Chicago’s cap commitments make any pursuit tricky, but the latest salary cap projection of $63.2MM has left the Bulls more confident they can pull it off. It would almost certainly have to involve removing Carlos Boozer‘s contract from the books, be it by amnesty or, as the Bulls appear to prefer, trade. Few teams would be willing and able to take on Boozer’s deal, even though it expires after next season, without sending back a significant chunk of salary in return, which would render moot Chicago’s rationale for trading Boozer in the first place. The possibility of a sign-and-trade with the Knicks involving Anthony exists, but Knicks president Phil Jackson might not be willing to play along and facilitate the departure of his team’s star.

The Bulls may find it impossible to trade Boozer, forcing owner Jerry Reinsdorf to either approve an amnesty or kiss goodbye to the team’s chances of landing ‘Melo. Reinsdorf has long been reluctant to spend, and an amnesty of Boozer, which removes him from the team’s cap but not its payroll, would likely force the owner to shell out more money on the Bulls roster than he ever has.

Even if the team sheds Boozer’s entire salary from its cap figure, the rest of Chicago’s salaries would eat up all but about $16.4MM under the projected cap. That number that would be further reduced to about $13.8MM, thanks to roster charges worth the rookie minimum salary that the Bulls would incur for having fewer than 12 players under contract. That would be well short of the nearly $22.5MM starting salary for which Anthony is eligible. The Bulls would have to find trade partners willing to absorb other assets without sending salary in return, though the team probably wouldn’t have a hard time divesting itself of its pair of first-round picks, which represent more than $2.7MM in cap holds. The Rockets were able to find a home for Thomas Robinson and others last year as they cleared the way for Dwight Howard to sign a max deal in Houston, so there’s reason for optimism that the Bulls can relieve themselves of Mike Dunleavy and perhaps Tony Snell.

Lopping the two first-rounders, Snell and Dunleavy off their books would give the Bulls about $17.6MM in flexibility, so perhaps Anthony would be willing to accept a deal of that size to allow the Bulls to have more than just the room exception and the minimum salary to fill out their roster. Any discount Anthony takes in his starting salary affects the money he can make over the course of the deal, since his raises would be limited to 4.5%. So, Anthony would likely have to make a financial sacrifice of somewhere between $10-20MM over the course of a four-year contract if he heads to Chicago.

Signing Anthony would probably keep Nikola Mirotic overseas for at least one more year. Mirotic appears to be the team’s priority if it can’t strike a deal with ‘Melo, though there have been conflicting reports about just how much it would take to buy him out of his Spanish league contract and bring him stateside. If it takes more than the mid-level exception, removing Boozer’s salary from the cap once more becomes critical. The 6’10” forward is widely considered the best player outside of the NBA, but his ability to contribute to a team with designs on a championship next year is a question. The Bulls may decide they’re better served chasing NBA free agents, like Lance Stephenson and Pau Gasol, in whom Chicago appears to have interest.

The team also has choices regarding its own free agents, including guards Kirk Hinrich and D.J. Augustin. GM Gar Forman won’t rule out re-signing both of them, but it appears that Augustin has the inside track to become Rose’s backup next season. The renaissance that Augustin, a 26-year-old former ninth overall pick, enjoyed this season after signing with the Bulls in December figures to make him fairly valuable on the market, though he’s said he’d like to remain with Chicago. Jimmer Fredette, another midseason backcourt signing, saw even less playing time with the Bulls than he did before engineering his release from the Kings, so he seems unlikely to return.

Forman and executive VP of basketball ops John Paxson made a flurry of late-season moves to maximize the team’s flexibility going forward. They released Erik Murphy, correctly surmising that a team would claim him off waivers and wipe his salary off Chicago’s books. That almost certainly leaves the team enough room below the tax line in case Taj Gibson or anyone else on the roster triggers an unlikely bonus. That means the Bulls, who paid the tax last season, won’t be in line for repeat offender penalties if they jump back into the tax next season. The team signed Mike James, Louis Amundson and Ronnie Brewer to cheap prorated deals that carry into 2014/15 with non-guaranteed salary, giving Forman and Paxson tools to help make salaries match in a trade.

The front office’s most significant task between now and the draft might involve coach Tom Thibodeau. The Lakers and Warriors would reportedly like permission to speak with Thibodeau, who’s in the midst of a long-term contract. Another report has suggested the team is eyeing Fred Hoiberg as a potential replacement. The loss of an elite coach, particularly if the Bulls replace him with someone like Hoiberg who doesn’t have NBA head coaching experience, could complicate the team’s free agent pursuits. So, I’d be surprised if the tension between management and Thibodeau manifests itself in a divorce. Still, the departure of Doc Rivers from the Celtics last season seemed to open the door for coaching “trades,” and perhaps the Bulls view Thibodeau as a fungible asset they can pawn off if necessary.

The Bulls also face a key decision regarding Jimmy Butler, who’s up for a rookie scale extension. Butler finished a tick behind ‘Melo for the highest minutes per game average in the NBA this season, establishing himself as an indelible part of the team. He shot much more poorly from the outside this season than he did in 2012/13, but he’s otherwise improved markedly during his tenure in Chicago. Hedging against a further breakout with an extension might help the Bulls keep long-term costs in check, with the prospect of free agency for the underpaid Joakim Noah looming in 2016.

The most important addition for next season would undoubtedly be a healthy Rose, who holds the key to the team’s title hopes. Just about any outcome for this summer would put Chicago in title contention if Rose returns to form, but it would be tough to envision the Bulls playing in June if his athleticism is compromised or he gets hurt again. The hands of Forman and Paxson will surely not be idle this summer, but their fingers will be crossed.

Cap footnotes

* — The Bulls waived Hamilton in July of 2013 and used the stretch provision to spread his remaining $1MM in guaranteed salary over three seasons.
** — The Bulls hold the draft rights to Mirotic, who’s yet to sign an NBA contract. He was the 23rd overall pick in 2011, and his cap hold is equal to 100% of the rookie scale for the 23rd overall pick in this year’s draft.

ShamSports and Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ were used in the creation of this post.

Q&A With NBA Draft Prospect Rodney Hood

Duke’s 2013/14 season ended with a shocking first round upset to Mercer, but on an individual level it was an all-around success for standout Rodney Hood.  The 6’8″ small forward impressed with his offensive game throughout the year and averaged 16.1 PPG, 3.9 RPG, and 2.1 APG in 32.9 minutes per contest.  Hood, widely regarded as one of the best at his position in the 2014 draft, took some time out of his busy schedule earlier this week to chat with Hoops Rumors about his journey thus far, his skill set, and when he believes he’ll hear his name called on June 26th.

What can you bring to an NBA team?

“I just think I’m ready to play right away.  I’m a versatile player, I can guard most positions, I can handle the ball, and I’ve gotten better this season.  I’m not the same player I was the year before.  I’m ready to contribute to a team.”NCAA Basketball: ACC Tournament-Duke vs Virginia

It seems like your draft stock skyrocketed over the course of the year.  Did your sizable leap surprise you at all?

“No, not really.  I always had the vision in mind to be a top-10 pick and that’s something I always worked towards in my year off [due to transferring from Mississippi State] and this year.  I think the difference was me just getting better and gaining confidence in my abilities.  That’s the biggest jump I’ve had, and I still think I can go up even more.”

Do you view yourself as the best shooter in this draft?

“I feel like I am and I feel like I’m different than everybody else in the draft in terms of being able to shoot the ball and being one of the most athletic guys out there. I think that sets me apart, plus I’m taller than most guys at my position.”

What are the main parts of your game that you want to work on?

“I just want to get stronger and I’m down here at IMG working on all parts of my game.  I’m getting better with my shot and doing stuff off the dribble.”

Are you working out individually or with other draft prospects?

“There are others here [at IMG] but I’m training by myself, mainly working out with [coaches] Dan Barto and Kenny Natt.”

How do you respond to concerns over your defense?

“I think it’s way overblown.  Obviously, I need to make some improvement, but every game I was guarding the best player, whether they play the 2 or the 3.  I won Duke’s Defensive Player of the Year award this year, [coach Mike Krzyzewski] always put me on the best player, so I think Coach K knows what I’m doing out there.  I’m not saying I’m the best player on D but I don’t think that’s a big weakness or anything to worry about.”

Do you have an read on where you might get drafted?  

“I’m not sure yet.  Based on what some people have said and what a couple of teams have told me, I can go from pick No. 6-12 or anywhere in the top 15.  That’s what I’ve been hearing.  Not from any mock drafts or anything, but just from people I talk to.”

Did you have any hesitation over entering the draft early?

“It was always a goal of mine just to play one year at Duke and then leave for the NBA.  It was hard leaving Duke because it’s such a great place to be and being with Coach K was great.  I wish I had another year to be under his leadership, but I just felt like it was my time to go.  Being at Duke prepared me for this transition.”

The first round loss to Mercer was obviously heartbreaking, but did you feel like you learned from that experience?

“I definitely learned from it.  It was tough just being in that situation but I’m a pro now.  It’s … it’s just hard to leave on that note but I talked to Coach K and he told me not to base my decision off of one game.  I had a really good season and it was just one bad game out of 30-something.  I’ll always remember that game though.”

From an emotional standpoint, in the immediate aftermath of that game, did you think about changing course and staying for one more year?

“I think in every kid’s mind, as soon as you get off of a loss, you get emotional and you say you want to come back.  But, at the end of day, I had to do what was best for me.  For all you know, the same thing could happen next year, so I couldn’t come back for that reason or because I thought I owed something.  It was about being ready [for the NBA] and I’m ready to go chase my dream.”

Who did you talk with before making the decision to enter the draft?

“Pretty much everybody.  I spoke with my family; I had a lot of conversations with Coach K and Wojo (former Duke Associate Head Coach Steve Wojciechowski). Even though he got the head coaching job at Marquette, I was in constant contact with him.  I also talked with Mason Plumlee and a lot of different people, but, mainly, Coach K and my family, and I was praying that I made the right decision.”

If you had to give a scouting report on Jabari Parker for an NBA team, what would you tell them?

“I’d just say he’s a great kid who works hard all the time and is just a great guy to be around.  Obviously you can see his talent and that’s the most important thing you see from him, that he just loves the game of basketball.”

What made you choose Travis King and the folks at Relativity to represent you?

“After talking with Travis and Dan Fegan, I felt like it was the best decision for me.  They really know my game and they really believe in me as a player.  I didn’t want to be just another player, I wanted to be one of the top guys represented by my agent, and I felt like they were the right team for me.”

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2014 Free Agent Power Rankings

A thrilling first round of the playoffs has vaulted Kyle Lowry into the latest edition of the Hoops Rumors 2014 Free Agent Power Rankings, even though his Raptors fell just short in their series against the Nets. Miami’s trio of stars are the only ones on this top 10 list whose teams remain alive in the playoffs, so a late charge from others might be enough to knock one of these names off for next time. Here’s a look at how the top free agents stand two weeks into the playoffs.

  1. LeBron James (early termination option) — Heat owner Micky Arison recently pegged the team’s chances of keeping the team’s big three together at 100%, as he spoke on 790 The Ticket (transcription via Jason Lieser of the Palm Beach Post). Arison also said that while he hopes it won’t be a challenge to retain them, he suggested it could be. In any case, it’s yet another strong indication that the top free agent won’t be changing teams.
  2. Carmelo Anthony (early termination option) — ‘Melo and Knicks president Phil Jackson finally chatted last week about the star forward’s free agency, but Anthony has meetings with other teams in mind. The Bulls are squarely in the mix, and the recent bump in the salary cap projection for next season has given the Bulls more confidence that they can pull off the coup.
  3. Chris Bosh (early termination option) — Arison’s comments apply to Bosh, too. The 30-year-old averaged his fewest minutes and points since his rookie season, but he showed no signs of any decline in the first round against the Bobcats, putting up numbers similar to his production during last year’s playoff run.
  4. Eric Bledsoe (restricted free agent) — The Suns plan to match any offer for Bledsoe, though they’d prefer to come to an agreement before other teams can start courting him in July.
  5. Greg Monroe (restricted free agent) — Marc Stein of ESPN.com this weekend identified the Hawks as a potential suitor. It’s unclear how high the Pistons would go to retain him, since Detroit is still without a replacement for longtime front office chief Joe Dumars.
  6. Gordon Hayward (restricted free agent) — Hayward offered no promises as Utah’s season came to a close, but he likes Salt Lake City and the Jazz have the power to match offers. His hot March shooting left him in April, and his field goal percentage has declined in each season since he was a rookie.
  7. Dwyane Wade (early termination option) — His fate has much to do with James and Bosh, though it would be hardest to envision Wade leaving Miami if the Heat’s other two stars pull off a surprise and leave. The 32-year-old is on the downside, but 6’4″ guards who can average 19.0 points, 4.7 assists and 4.5 rebounds for a championship contender, as Wade did this season, are rare gems.
  8. Kyle Lowry — There’s no telling how high he could have eventually climbed in these rankings if Paul Pierce‘s hand hadn’t been in the way of his would-be game winner on Sunday. The Andy Miller client was an all-around force in the seven-game series against the Nets, averaging 21.1 points per game.
  9. Zach Randolph (player option) — Z-Bo’s suspension for Game 7 of the Grizzlies’ first-round loss was questionable enough that it probably won’t even come up in negotiations on a new deal this summer, should he turn down his player option, worth more than $16.9MM. Randolph was his usual self on the scoreboard and on the glass against the Thunder, but his 13.8 PER in that series is troubling.
  10. Luol Deng — The small forward’s time in Cleveland didn’t do much for his stock, and sitting at home while other soon-to-be free agents are in the playoffs isn’t helping, either. Cavs owner Dan Gilbert is apparently upset that former GM Chris Grant gave up future draft picks to acquire Deng, and the Lakers and Suns are among the teams interested in signing him this summer, so Deng doesn’t appear long for Ohio.

Lance Stephenson, who was seventh in the first edition of these rankings and 10th last time, has fallen out as the Pacers struggled just to get by the eighth-seeded Hawks in the first round. Still, Indiana remains alive, and Stephenson has the opportunity to climb back into our top 10. Dirk Nowitzki, Tim Duncan, Rudy Gay, Marcin Gortat and Trevor Ariza are other difficult omissions.

Note: I’m not listing players under team control for 2014/15, like Tony Parker, who has a partially guaranteed contract.

Hoops Rumors Originals

As we cool down from a thrilling Game 7 in Toronto, here’s a look back at the original reporting and analysis from the Hoops Rumors staff this week..

  • As a part of Hoops Rumors’ ongoing Prospect Profile series, I interviewed Jarnell Stokes of Tennessee, Stanford’s Josh Huestis, and Cincinnati’s Justin Jackson.
  • Chuck Myron kicked off the Hoops Rumors Offseason Outlook series with an examination of the Knicks.
  • Need a refresher on cap holds?  Chuck has you covered.
  • I profiled Dante Exum, who is widely regarded as the best point guard in the upcoming draft.
  • Jerami Grant has a lot of question marks but he has quite a bit of upside too, writes Eddie Scarito.
  • We asked you to pick the best coaching candidate for the Lakers and George Karl came out on top.
  • We featured the top comments on Hoops Rumors in this week’s edition of Featured Feedback.
  • Miss out on this week’s chat?  Get caught up here.

Prospect Profile: Jarnell Stokes

There are plenty of talented big men in this year’s draft, but few can haul in rebounds like Tennessee’s Jarnell Stokes.  The 6’9″ forward is coming off of a season in which he averaged 13.7 RPG per 40 minutes and an eye-popping 6.0 offensive boards per 40 minutes.  The takeaway from most observers is that Stokes is able to clean the glass thanks to his phenomenal strength.  While his ability to push people around definitely helps, the forward says that doesn’t tell the whole story. NCAA Basketball: NCAA Tournament-First Round-Iowa vs Tennessee

Really, it was one thing that happened to me my sophomore year.  I didn’t know that people take stats of how many rebounds you don’t go for.  So, my mission my junior year was to go for every rebound and once I started doing that, I got better and hungrier.  I have a knack for the ball but I also have somewhat of a defensive end type of skill set at making moves to get rebounds,” Stokes told Hoops Rumors.

Stokes, projected to be a late-first round pick by ESPN’s Chad Ford (Insider sub. req’d), put up averages of 15.1 PPG and 10.6 RPG off of 53.1% shooting from the field in 2013/14, helping to lead the Volunteers to the Sweet Sixteen.  The forward humbly believes that both his numbers and his play should place him higher in the draft and he’s intent on making that a reality through workouts.

I think my rebounding numbers set me apart and my numbers period this year set me apart.  If you look at my numbers and a lot of guys who are considered lottery types, my numbers are right there, if not better,” Stokes said.  “I think in college I was somewhat hurt by having to dominate the paint, so sometimes people don’t exactly understand that I was just doing what my coach instructed me to do.

For the good of the team, coach Cuonzo Martin positioned Stokes in the post on offense and watched him overpower weaker opponents for easy baskets.  Some have criticized Stokes’ lack of a mid-range game, but the 20-year-old says his jumper is just fine.  The reason why he hasn’t knocked down many mid-range shots isn’t a matter of ability, but rather a matter of opportunity.

I definitely feel like I’ve got a solid mid-range game. In fact, if you watch my high school highlights, you’ll see that I was projected to be a small forward. Ultimately, my coaches started putting me at the five and that’s kind of where I focused my game. I don’t mind playing like an undersized center again, but I look at guys like David West and Carlos Boozer and I feel like I can do most of the things that they’re doing,” explained Stokes.

There’s no doubt that his aforementioned strength coupled with his 7’1″ wingspan will help make his transition to the NBA easier.  While he doesn’t have a tremendous vertical leap, his reach will help him grab loose balls and help him disrupt shots on defense.

Despite his wingspan, scouts may have concern about his size and how that’ll translate to the next level.  At 6’9″, critics argue that larger opponents can get the better of him in the post and quicker players will be able to get around him on the perimeter.  For all of his hustle and grit, the biggest knock on Stokes is that his lateral quickness leaves a lot to be desired.  As he shows off his 15-footer in workouts, he’ll also look to display his east-to-west speed for scouts.

Even though Stokes turned in a fantastic campaign, a lot of talented underclassmen in similar positions chose to stay in school for another year rather than dive into the ultra-talented 2014 pool.  Stokes understands that he has a lot of hard work ahead of him, but he’s also confident that he is ready for the challenge.

I’ve played against the elite college guys, guys like [Florida’s] Patric Young, I’ve grown up with or played against the best out there.  I want to say this as humbly as possible, I can be one of the best bigs in the draft, provided that I can show that certain things can translate.

I did what my coach needed me to do and what my team needed me to do to win, and I’m glad I did.  But there’s much more to my game than what everyone has seen.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Hoops Rumors Featured Feedback

We value your input on the news we cover here at Hoops Rumors. That’s why we’re passing along some of the best insight from our comments and the Hoops Rumors Facebook page. Share your reaction to and insight on the news and rumors around the league, and you’ll have a chance to see your name here. Check out what readers had to say in previous editions of Hoops Rumors Featured Feedback.

It’s easy to sign up and start commenting on Hoops Rumors. First, read our Commenting Policy. Then, scroll to the bottom of any post, and you’ll see the word “Login” on the right side atop the comments section. Click the word and choose whether you want to comment using a Disqus account or your existing Facebook, Twitter or Google account. If you don’t have a Disqus account and you want to create one, just choose that option and click “Need an account?” at the bottom right of the box that pops up.

This week’s report that the Bulls are likely to attempt to trade Carlos Boozer inspired a robust discussion on Hoops Rumors, and reader John Conley had much to say about a Bulls franchise he feels has underperformed. We’ll share his thoughts on what Chicago must do in the summer ahead.

  • The Bulls need three scoring threats in order for them to get to the conference finals. They can’t make wide open shots during crunch time. If [Derrick] Rose comes back healthy, they need at least two guys to go with him that score at least 15 points per game and play some form of defense. They keep repackaging the same team and it isn’t working. Their bench is weak, the starting five is weak and their offense is weak. Can’t fall in love with players the way the Bulls have in recent years. We need a couple of beasts on offense. We need a Nene. Gotta be one D-Leaguer that is a beast and hungry for a chance?

Pau Gasol isn’t content with his team either, writing on his website that the Lakers would have to make significant changes for him to re-sign this summer. One of the teams likely to pursue him is Charlotte, and ozzie chimed in about whether the Bobcats, soon to be renamed the Hornets, would be a fit.

  • I would say, “If Gasol could help the new Hornets in some ways, go for it.” He could be one of the missing links needed to make the Hornets a much more improved team next season. The Lakers are at a standstill with no improvement insight. The Hornets move would make more sense.

The Lakers might be anxious to make a splash with their coaching hire, but so should the Timberwolves, as Dorian Holden wrote in response to news on candidates for the Minnesota job.

  • The Wolves have gotta hit a home run knowing that [Kevin] Love is entering his walk year. They need a big name splash. And I think some of these people are gonna wait for the Lakers to open up.

We appreciate everyone who adds to the dialogue at Hoops Rumors, and we look forward to seeing more responses like these from you!

Prospect Profile: Justin Jackson

Some might ask what position Cincinnati senior Justin Jackson — a slender 6’8″ forward — would be best suited for in the NBA.  Others, like Jackson himself, don’t spend too much time thinking about that.NCAA Basketball: American Athletic Conference Tournament-UConn vs Cincinnati

I don’t really give myself a size, I’m just a ballplayer,” Jackson explained to Hoops Rumors. “I can be a one up to a five.  I’m just going to do whatever is asked of me, like Tony Allen.  He’s 6’4″ and he’ll guard someone like Kevin Durant.  It’s a big size difference but he knows how to guard him.  I’m the same way.  I’m 6’8″ but I can move like a guard and guard up to a five,

The reigning AAC Defensive Player of the Year has spent four years proving to observers that he’s capable of pesky D on the inside and on the perimeter.  With a 7’1″ wingspan, Jackson has long limbs that are designed for disrupting a ball handler and clogging passing lanes.  He excelled in standard defensive measurements (2.9 blocks per game, 1.6 steals per game), and his play also inspired the sports information department at UC to keep track of his pass deflections per game and leaps into press row. The question he expects to get peppered with a lot between now and June is whether he can be a contributor on offense, as well.

Showing off a mid-range game will be important for Jackson, who was asked to score most of his points off of putbacks in college. Bearcats coach Mick Cronin told Sports Illustrated’s Kelli Anderson earlier this year that his message this season was, “I don’t need you to take more shots; I need you to score more points.”  Cronin pushed the senior to tailor his game so it would look more like that of Bearcats alum Kenyon Martin, which led Jackson to play with more power on the offensive end. NBA prospects could do a whole lot worse than taking after the former No. 1 overall pick, but Jackson knows the jumper is still essential at the next level.

I can hit open jumpers and I’m a great passer.  I’m not going to say that I’m Durant with the basketball, but I’m the guy who when KD breaks their man down and you need an open 15 footer knocked down, I can do that.  I’m a great role player,” the 23-year-old said.

Jackson was able to back that up at the Portsmouth Invitational just a few weeks ago, averaging a double-double in front of a litany of NBA scouts.  His solid performance, he says, has only made him more eager for his next showcase.  Jackson’s mission is to show that he’s not only well-rounded, but also mature and ready to help a team win immediately.

Because there are still folks who worry about Jackson’s size, he’s hard at work near his hometown in Florida putting on weight.  The forward played this year at around 230 pounds and he hopes that when it gets closer to draft time, he’ll tip the scales at 240.  Expect Jackson to get a lot of looks later in the second round, especially if he gets the opportunity to defend against different positions in workouts.   

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: New York Knicks

Guaranteed Contracts

Options

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Free Agents / Cap Holds

Draft Picks

  • None

Cap Outlook

  • Guaranteed salary: $29,903,532
  • Player and early termination options: $58,244,393
  • Team options: $0
  • Non-guaranteed salary: $3,706,939
  • Cap holds: $5,592,697
  • Total: $97,447,561

This summer will have a lot in common with the winter of 2010/11. That was the last time the courtship of Carmelo Anthony took center stage, and the specter of Anthony’s free agency this summer figures to once more dominate the back page headlines in New York and our pages here at Hoops Rumors. Anthony made it clear before the season that he intends to decline his lucrative player option for 2014/15 and hit free agency, and he’s maintained that stance ever since. He said at the All-Star break that the Knicks were his preference and that he’d be open to the idea of taking a discount to remain in New York, but he added that he wants to hear the team’s plans to return to contention before making his final decision.

Anthony has repeated those remarks as well, though it seems that he’s more concerned with what the team can do next season than in the long term. That puts pressure on Knicks president Phil Jackson, just weeks into his first job as a team executive. Anthony and the Zen Master met this week to discuss ‘Melo’s free agent plans for the first time and talk about Steve Kerr, whom Jackson has zeroed in upon for the team’s coaching vacancy. Kerr would be a first-time coach, meaning that he and Jackson, neophytes in their jobs, would have the task of squeezing a significant improvement out of a 37-win team that offers precious little roster maneuverability.

The Knicks have less than $30MM in guaranteed salary for next season, but that number is almost certain to more than double, since Amar’e Stoudemire and Andrea Bargnani appear to be locks to opt in. That would bring the team’s commitments to about $64.8MM, roughly $1.6MM more than even the new, more optimistic projections for next season’s salary cap. That means the team would be capped-out regardless of where or for how much Anthony decides to play next season. Anthony’s return would almost certainly bring the team over the tax threshold for a third straight season, putting them in line to pay sharply escalating repeat-offender tax penalties in future years.

Such expenditures matter little to the high-revenue Knicks, who gave Jackson a five-year, $60MM contract, making him the most highly paid basketball executive in the league’s history. Where paying the tax hurts the Knicks is with the loss of the full mid-level exception, the bi-annual exception, and the chance to accept players who agree to a sign-and-trade. New York will only have the $3.278MM taxpayer’s mid-level exception at its disposal, and the minimum salary, to attract free agents from other teams.

The Knicks are also without either a first- or second-round draft pick this year. The earliest first-round pick that Jackson can offer teams in a trade is the Knicks’ 2018 selection because of the Stepien Rule. New York has little in the way of intriguing young players to offer outside of Iman Shumpert, whom the team dangled at multiple points this past season, nearly sending him to the Clippers at the deadline. Shumpert is eligible for a rookie scale extension this summer, but he doesn’t appear to hold the promise of turning into a star as most of the players who receive such extensions do. Jackson seems higher on Shumpert than the front office did under GM Steve Mills, who gave up his title of president when Jackson came aboard. Of course, Jackson, who made a habit of manipulating his team through the press when he was a coach, might have planted the assertion that he values Shumpert to better leaguewide perception of the 23-year-old as a trade asset, but that scenario is probably far-fetched. Still, the prospect of trading Shumpert represents one of the team’s clearest avenues for an upgrade.

Tyson ChandlerCole AldrichTim Hardaway Jr. and Toure’ Murry are also reportedly among Jackson’s favorites. Chandler suffered an injury early this season, and his play dropped off when he returned. He was a frequent critic of former coach Mike Woodson this year, fueling speculation that he might ask for a trade, but the arrival of Jackson and a new coach presents an opportunity for Chandler to reset. The question is whether the 31-year-old can resuscitate his game and again provide the elite defensive presence that was so critical to New York’s 54-win season in 2012/13. If Jackson senses he can’t, Chandler would become a trade chip whether he wants to leave New York or not. It might not be too hard to find takers for him, since he’s only under contract for one more season, and the risk of taking him on wouldn’t be too severe.

Hardaway would be another attractive trading piece after a strong rookie season. Still, given Jackson’s rumored affection for the guard and his potential for growth, he’d probably help the team more than whatever he could net in a trade, unless a team is willing to overpay for him. J.R. Smith began to play better toward the end of the season, but for the most part he was an albatross whose trade value bottomed out. Unless Jackson wants to send him out for little in return just to remove him from the locker room, Smith seems destined to remain a Knick.

New York’s late-season signing of Lamar Odom was clearly tied to Jackson’s history with the troubled forward, but it also signals what lies ahead in the offseason. His non-guaranteed contract is worth the minimum salary, but it’s the minimum for a veteran of 10 or more seasons in the league, worth more than $1.448MM. Odom’s chances of becoming a useful NBA player again seem remote, but that won’t matter if Jackson needs to use him to make the salaries match in a trade this summer. He can insert Odom into a trade, and the team that acquires him can simply waive him without owing him a cent. The Knicks can also cut him loose before opening night without him counting toward the team’s salary, so it’s a low-risk investment.

Jackson and, if hired, Kerr may hold out hope that the triangle offense will significantly help a team that’s too often reliant on Anthony’s isolations, but for Anthony to get his wish of an improved roster by next season, Jackson probably knows that trades are his best option. His assertion that Anthony should be “true to his word” and give the Knicks a hometown discount matters little for the team’s 2014/15 math. Jackson must exhibit the same aplomb with executives from opposing teams that he did with his players in his years as a coach to help the Knicks make a quick return to prominence.

Cap footnotes

* — Anthony has said repeatedly that he intends to opt out and become a free agent. In that case, his cap hold would be $22,458,402.
** — Murry’s cap hold would be $816,482 if the Knicks do not tender a qualifying offer.

ShamSports was used in the creation of this post.