2018/19 Over/Unders: Atlantic Division
The 2018/19 NBA regular season will get underway in just eight days, which means it’s time to start getting serious about predictions for the upcoming campaign. With the help of the lines from Bovada and the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, we’re running through the predicted win totals for each of the NBA’s 30 teams, by division, to have you weigh in on whether you think those forecasts are too optimistic or too pessimistic.
We’ll kick things off today with the Atlantic division…
Boston Celtics
- 2017/18 record: 55-27
- Over/under for 2018/19: 59.5 wins
- Major offseason moves:
- Added: Robert Williams, Brad Wanamaker
- Lost: Greg Monroe, Shane Larkin, Abdel Nader
How many games will the Celtics win in 2018/19?
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Over 59.5 54% (392)
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Under 59.5 46% (339)
Total votes: 731
(Trade Rumors app users, click here for Celtics poll)
Toronto Raptors
- 2017/18 record: 59-23
- Over/under for 2018/19: 55.5 wins
- Major offseason moves:
- Added: Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green, Greg Monroe
- Lost: DeMar DeRozan, Jakob Poeltl, Lucas Nogueira
How many games will the Raptors win in 2018/19?
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Over 55.5 57% (373)
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Under 55.5 43% (282)
Total votes: 655
(Trade Rumors app users, click here for Raptors poll)
Philadelphia 76ers
- 2017/18 record: 52-30
- Over/under for 2018/19: 54.5 wins
- Major offseason moves:
How many games will the Sixers win in 2018/19?
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Under 54.5 51% (323)
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Over 54.5 49% (308)
Total votes: 631
(Trade Rumors app users, click here for Sixers poll)
Brooklyn Nets
- 2017/18 record: 28-54
- Over/under for 2018/19: 31.5 wins
- Major offseason moves:
How many games will the Nets win in 2018/19?
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Under 31.5 56% (311)
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Over 31.5 44% (244)
Total votes: 555
(Trade Rumors app users, click here for Nets poll)
New York Knicks
- 2017/18 record: 29-53
- Over/under for 2018/19: 28.5 wins
- Major offseason moves:
- Added: Mario Hezonja, Kevin Knox, Mitchell Robinson
- Lost: Michael Beasley, Jarrett Jack, Kyle O’Quinn
How many games will the Knicks win in 2018/19?
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Under 28.5 54% (328)
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Over 28.5 46% (278)
Total votes: 606
(Trade Rumors app users, click here for Knicks poll)
Poll: Biggest Threat To Warriors In 2018/19?
Last spring, only one team legitimately pushed the Warriors in the postseason, as the Rockets took a 3-2 lead on Golden State before losing the last two games of the series without star point guard Chris Paul. However, as Drew Shiller of NBC Sports Bay Area relays, Klay Thompson suggested on Media Day last week that it might be the Celtics, rather than the Rockets, who are the biggest threat to knock off the defending champions in 2018/19.
“I like the team out East in Boston,” Thompson told ESPN. “They’ve got a very nice young team. One through five — they’ve got a team that kind of mirrors ours, as far as their length, guys who can shoot and play defense, and an unselfish way about things. So I think that they are going to be a team to reckon with.”
Outside of the Warriors, who are viewed as the strong favorites to win their third consecutive title, the Celtics and Rockets have the best championship odds for the coming season, according to various bookmakers. Sports betting site Bovada.lv, for instance, has Boston at 5-to-1 to win the title, with Houston coming it at 8.5-to-1.
After those clubs, the Lakers (10-to-1), Raptors (14-to-1), and Sixers (16-to-1) are given the strongest title odds. The Lakers are an interesting wild card, given the presence of LeBron James, who hasn’t missed an NBA Finals since 2010. The two Atlantic clubs, meanwhile, are considered the biggest threats to Boston in the East. Toronto’s chances figure to hinge on Kawhi Leonard‘s performance and health, while Philadelphia will be counting on Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons to continue improving — a Markelle Fultz breakout season would be an X-factor for the Sixers.
Based on Bovada’s lines, only one other team should even be in the conversation for the 2019 NBA championship — the site lists the Thunder at 30-to-1 to win the title, while no other clubs have better than 75-to-1 odds.
What do you think? Do you, like Thompson (and Bovada), view the Celtics as the biggest threat to stop the Warriors’ streak of championships? Do the Rockets once again have the best chance to pull off the upset? Or is there another team worth watching?
Vote below in our poll, then jump into the comment section to share your thoughts!
Which team is the biggest threat to the Warriors in 2018/19?
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Boston Celtics 47% (652)
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Houston Rockets 23% (316)
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Toronto Raptors 8% (108)
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Another team 7% (95)
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Los Angeles Lakers 6% (89)
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Philadelphia 76ers 5% (70)
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Oklahoma City Thunder 3% (47)
Total votes: 1,377
Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.
Poll: Best NBA Coaching Hire Of Offseason?
After no NBA teams made coaching changes during the 2017 offseason, the league seemingly made up for lost time this summer. Eight clubs have replaced their head coaches since the 2017/18 season ended, with a ninth (the Grizzlies) announcing that their interim coach (J.B. Bickerstaff) would get the permanent job.
In some cases, these coaching changes functioned as a game of musical chairs. Dwane Casey was fired by the Raptors but quickly caught on with the Pistons. Steve Clifford, having been dismissed by the Hornets, was hired by the Magic. David Fizdale joined the Knicks less than a year after being let go by the Grizzlies. And Mike Budenholzer was scooped up by the Bucks shortly after parting ways with the Hawks.
In other cases, teams opted for fresh blood in the head coaching ranks. New Hornets coach James Borrego and Hawks coach Lloyd Pierce are veteran assistants getting their first shot at a head coaching job. The same goes for new Suns coach Igor Kokoskov, the NBA’s first European-born head coach, and Nick Nurse of the Raptors, who got a promotion to replace the reigning Coach of the Year.
In today’s poll, we want to know which of these offseason hires you liked the best. Your choice doesn’t necessarily have to be the one that will improve his new team’s win-loss record most significantly in 2018/19, but rather the hiring that will pay the most dividends in the long run.
Here’s a recap of all eight coaching changes this offseason:
- Atlanta Hawks: Hired Lloyd Pierce to replace Mike Budenholzer.
- Charlotte Hornets: Hired James Borrego to replace Steve Clifford.
- Detroit Pistons: Hired Dwane Casey to replace Stan Van Gundy.
- Milwaukee Bucks: Hired Mike Budenholzer to replace Joe Prunty (interim).
- New York Knicks: Hired David Fizdale to replace Jeff Hornacek.
- Orlando Magic: Hired Steve Clifford to replace Frank Vogel.
- Phoenix Suns: Hired Igor Kokoskov to replace Jay Triano (interim).
- Toronto Raptors: Hired Nick Nurse to replace Dwane Casey.
What do you think? Which move did you like the best? Vote below in our poll and jump into the comment section to share your two cents.
Which coaching hire was the best of the offseason?
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Detroit Pistons (Dwane Casey) 30% (295)
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Milwaukee Bucks (Mike Budenholzer) 29% (284)
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New York Knicks (David Fizdale) 17% (160)
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Phoenix Suns (Igor Kokoskov) 9% (89)
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Toronto Raptors (Nick Nurse) 8% (73)
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Atlanta Hawks (Lloyd Pierce) 3% (28)
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Charlotte Hornets (James Borrego) 2% (24)
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Orlando Magic (Steve Clifford) 2% (15)
Total votes: 968
Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.
Poll: Best Offseason Among Western Teams?
During the first couple days of NBA free agency this summer, two contract agreements dominated headlines — LeBron James deciding to join the Lakers and DeMarcus Cousins agreeing to terms with the Warriors.
James, who signed a maximum-salary contract, wasn’t necessarily a bargain, but his free agent decision was a franchise-altering move for the Lakers and a league-changing move for the NBA, which saw the balance of power shift further from the Eastern Conference to the West as one of its marquee franchises landed an all-time great. As for Cousins, he almost certainly won’t have the same on-court impact that James will in 2018/19, but his decision to accept a below-market deal to join the defending champions sent shockwaves across the league as well.
Given the magnitude of those two moves, it’s no surprise that the Lakers and Warriors received the highest grades in Kevin Pelton’s ESPN.com breakdown of the offseason moves by each Western team. In his Insider-only story, Pelton awards the Lakers and Warriors grades of A-minus. No other club received an A grade.
Still, Pelton did like a few other teams’ offseason roster changes. He awarded the Mavericks, who signed DeAndre Jordan and traded up for Luka Doncic, a B-plus. The Thunder, who re-signed Paul George and Jerami Grant before striking a deal for Dennis Schroder, got a B-plus grade from Pelton as well.
Pelton also had praise for the Nuggets, who re-signed Nikola Jokic and Will Barton while adding Isaiah Thomas at a bargain price. Denver received a B grade, as did the Pelicans, who managed to replace Cousins and Rajon Rondo with younger alternatives in Julius Randle and Elfrid Payton.
On the other end of the spectrum, Pelton didn’t love the offseason moves made by the Suns (D+), Rockets (D+), Spurs (D), and Kings (D).
What do you think? Which Western Conference team had the best offseason? Do you agree with Pelton that the choice comes down to the Lakers or Warriors, or was there another club whose summer moves you liked more?
Vote below in our poll, then jump into the comment section to explain your pick!
Which Western team has had the best offseason?
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Los Angeles Lakers 36% (300)
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Golden State Warriors 22% (186)
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Dallas Mavericks 9% (78)
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Oklahoma City Thunder 9% (76)
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Phoenix Suns 5% (39)
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Denver Nuggets 4% (31)
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Houston Rockets 3% (23)
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Utah Jazz 3% (22)
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Sacramento Kings 2% (18)
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San Antonio Spurs 2% (17)
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Minnesota Timberwolves 2% (14)
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New Orleans Pelicans 1% (11)
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Los Angeles Clippers 1% (7)
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Memphis Grizzlies 1% (7)
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Portland Trail Blazers 1% (7)
Total votes: 836
Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.
Poll: Best, Worst Extensions Taking Effect In 2018/19
We’ve spent the last month and a half evaluating the best and the worst of this year’s free agent deals, but there’s another series of big-money contracts going into effect this season that have been somewhat overlooked during that time.
Eight players signed contract extensions in 2017 that will begin in 2018/19, as our 2017 extension tracker shows. Those players are as follows:
Russell Westbrook (Thunder): Five years, $206,794,070- Joel Embiid (Sixers): Five years, $147,710,050
- Andrew Wiggins (Timberwolves): Five years, $147,710,050
- Gary Harris (Nuggets): Four years, $74,000,000
- T.J. Warren (Suns): Four years, $47,000,000
- Robert Covington (Sixers): Four years, $46,879,127
- Norman Powell (Raptors): Four years, $41,965,056
- Josh Richardson (Heat): Four years, $41,965,056
All of these extensions were completed in September, October, or November of 2017, meaning they’re less than a year old. Nonetheless, it’s fascinating to consider how differently many of them look now, as opposed to when they signed.
Powell, for instance, took a step backward last year for the Raptors, posting new career lows in PPG (5.5), FG% (.401), and 3PT% (.285), among other categories. Now, a signing that initially looked like a savvy move to lock up a promising young wing seems like it could become an albatross.
On the other hand, Richardson – who signed the same deal as Powell – improved his stock in 2017/18, starting 81 games for the Heat and averaging 12.9 PPG, 3.5 RPG, and 2.9 APG with a .451/.378/.845 shooting line. Richardson looks like a key piece in Miami going forward, and the team looks smart for having extended him early.
The pair of Sixers extensions appear more team-friendly now than they did 10 months ago too. Embiid is coming off a monster season in which he was able to stay on the court for most of the year, and his deal includes some injury protection if the 76ers need it. As for Covington, his extension was technically worth $60MM because he was able to renegotiate a big raise on his 2017/18 salary. Now that the new years are taking effect though, the $46.9MM price tag for the next four seasons looks even more manageable.
What do you think? Which of the 2017 contract extensions taking effect this season do you think is the most team-friendly deal of the bunch?
Which extension is the best value?
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Joel Embiid (Five years, $148MM) 36% (354)
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Russell Westbrook (Five years, $207MM) 17% (161)
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Robert Covington (Four years, $47MM) 11% (111)
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Gary Harris (Four years, $74MM) 10% (97)
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Josh Richardson (Four years, $42MM) 9% (92)
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Andrew Wiggins (Five years, $148MM) 7% (67)
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T.J. Warren (Four years, $47MM) 6% (63)
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Norman Powell (Four years, $42MM) 3% (29)
Total votes: 974
Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.
On the other end of the spectrum, which of these extensions is the least favorable from a team’s perspective?
Which extension is the worst value?
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Andrew Wiggins (Five years, $148MM) 53% (454)
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Norman Powell (Four years, $42MM) 18% (159)
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Russell Westbrook (Five years, $207MM) 13% (113)
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Gary Harris (Four years, $74MM) 4% (37)
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Joel Embiid (Five years, $148MM) 3% (28)
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Josh Richardson (Four years, $42MM) 3% (28)
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T.J. Warren (Four years, $47MM) 3% (27)
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Robert Covington (Four years, $47MM) 2% (18)
Total votes: 864
Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Poll: Which Team Will Be NBA’s Worst In 2018/19?
The Suns, who finished with a 21-61 mark, had the NBA’s worst record in 2017/18, finishing just behind the Grizzlies (22-60), Mavericks (24-58), and Hawks (24-58) in the final standings. Having added Deandre Ayton and Mikal Bridges in the draft, along with Trevor Ariza in free agency, Phoenix has higher hopes for the 2018/19 season, but the club is still projected to be one of the NBA’s worst.
Multiple oddsmakers, including the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook and betting site Bodog.eu, have the Suns’ over/under for wins next season set at 28.5, making them one of the few NBA teams expected to win fewer than 30 games. While that projection may seem pessimistic for a team seemingly on the rise, the competition in the Western Conference will be fierce — in addition to playing the eight playoff teams from last year, the Suns will also have to deal with the Nuggets, Lakers, Mavs, Grizzlies, and Clippers, all of whom have postseason aspirations for 2018/19.
One Western team that probably doesn’t have realistic playoff expectations for next season is the Kings, whose over/under on sports books is generally in the range of 25.5 wins. Sacramento finished ahead of Phoenix in the standings last season, but Marvin Bagley isn’t necessarily expected to make an immediate impact like Ayton is, and the Kings’ free agent additions, including Nemanja Bjelica and Yogi Ferrell, don’t have Ariza’s résumé.
Over in the Eastern Conference, it may not be quite as challenging to pick up wins on a night-to-night basis, but there are still a handful of teams viewed as bottom-feeders, including the Hawks. Atlanta traded away its most productive player from 2017/18 – Dennis Schroder – and rookie Trae Young is unlikely to match Schroder’s production. Other newcomers like Jeremy Lin and Alex Len also aren’t the sort of difference-makers who will increase Atlanta’s win total substantially — oddsmakers have the Hawks’ over/under at just 23.5 wins.
No other team in the East is viewed that unfavorably, but oddsmakers aren’t expecting much from the Bulls (over/under of approximately 28 wins) or the Knicks (29.5 wins), who will be without Kristaps Porzingis for the first part of the season. The Cavaliers, Magic, and Nets are also projected to miss the playoffs, albeit with win totals in the low-30s.
What do you think? Which team will finish the 2018/19 season with the NBA’s worst record? Vote below in our poll and then jump into the comment section to explain your pick.
Which team will have the worst record in the NBA in 2018/19?
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Atlanta Hawks 39% (564)
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Sacramento Kings 17% (249)
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Cleveland Cavaliers 9% (123)
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Brooklyn Nets 7% (99)
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New York Knicks 7% (97)
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Orlando Magic 7% (94)
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Another team 5% (76)
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Chicago Bulls 4% (63)
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Phoenix Suns 4% (63)
Total votes: 1,428
Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.
Poll: Who Will Be East’s Best Player In 2018/19?
During the 2017/18 season, five of the league’s 15 All-NBA players were from the Eastern Conference. Two of those stars – LeBron James and DeMar DeRozan – headed to Western Conference teams this offseason, leaving only three All-NBA players in the East: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid, and Victor Oladipo.
Anteokounmpo, Embiid, and Oladipo will head into the 2018/19 season as virtual locks for the Eastern All-Star team, assuming they stay healthy, especially given the relative lack of talent in the conference. However, they’re not the only stars left in the East.
Kawhi Leonard wasn’t an All-NBA player last year, but he earned a spot on the First Team in each of the previous two seasons. His health remains a major question mark, given his lost ’17/18 season, but if he’s back to full strength for the Raptors, he could be in line for a monster contract year. Having lost their leading scorer in the trade that sent Kawhi to Toronto, the Raptors figure to lean heavily on Leonard on both ends of the court.
Kyrie Irving didn’t miss as much of last season as Leonard did, but injury issues ended his year early as well. Irving earned a little MVP buzz during the first half of the season, and while the Celtics’ roster may be too deep for the star point guard to put up massive individual numbers, he’ll likely be the best player on what is expected to be the best team in the East.
Another Sixer, Ben Simmons, figures to give Embiid a run for his money for the title of best player on Philadelphia’s roster. Already an excellent finisher, play-maker, and passer, Simmons is capable of becoming one of the NBA’s most dangerous players if he can add a reliable jump shot. Both he and Embiid have future MVP potential, though Embiid looks closer to reaching those heights in 2018/19.
Elsewhere in the East, John Wall, Blake Griffin, Kemba Walker, Gordon Hayward, Kyle Lowry, Bradley Beal, Kevin Love, and Goran Dragic are among the players that figure to vie for spots on the All-Star roster, but it would be a surprise if any of them is the most effective player in the conference in 2018/19.
What do you think? Who will be the East’s best player next season? Will Antetokounmpo take another step forward and claim that title? Will Leonard bounce back after his change of scenery and reclaim his spot as a First Team All-NBA player? Can Embiid stay healthy all year long and ascend to new heights?
Vote below in our poll, then head to the comment section to share your thoughts!
Who will be the best player in the East in 2018/19?
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Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks) 44% (596)
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Kawhi Leonard (Raptors) 18% (244)
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Kyrie Irving (Celtics) 13% (175)
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Joel Embiid (Sixers) 12% (168)
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Someone else 7% (93)
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Victor Oladipo (Pacers) 4% (52)
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Ben Simmons (Sixers) 3% (38)
Total votes: 1,366
Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.
Poll: Which Team Will Win Central Division?
The Cavaliers have won the Central division for four consecutive seasons, and the Cavs, Pistons, and Bulls have combined to claim 12 of the last 14 division titles. However, those clubs won’t enter the 2018/19 season as the frontrunners to finish atop the Central.
Currently, the Pacers and Bucks are viewed as virtual co-favorites for the Central crown in ’18/19. The opening over/unders from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook had the Pacers at 47.5 wins and the Bucks at 46.5. Currently, however, betting site Bodog.eu has both teams projected at 46.5 wins for the upcoming season. No other Central team is projected to get to .500.
Indiana and Milwaukee finished four games apart last season, as the 48-34 Pacers claimed the No. 5 seed in the Eastern Conference, while the 44-38 Bucks came in at No. 7. Both clubs have also made modest upgrades to their respective rosters during the offseason.
Indiana lost Lance Stephenson, Trevor Booker, Al Jefferson, and Glenn Robinson III, but added Tyreke Evans, Doug McDermott, Kyle O’Quinn, and Aaron Holiday. In Milwaukee, the Bucks acquired Ersan Ilyasova, Brook Lopez, Pat Connaughton, and Donte DiVincenzo to replace Jabari Parker, Brandon Jennings, and Jason Terry.
As they look to leapfrog the Pacers in 2018/19, the Bucks will be relying on continued development from Giannis Antetokounmpo – potentially the best player in the East – as well as an immediate impact from new head coach Mike Budenholzer. As for the Pacers, they’ll count on continuity from a group that gelled quickly last season, as well as improvements from young players like Victor Oladipo, Myles Turner, and Domantas Sabonis.
What do you think? Do you expect the Pacers to supplant the Cavaliers as the Central’s top team in 2018/19? Will the Bucks take home the Central crown for the first time since 2001? Or will the Pistons, Cavs, or Bulls make a surprise run to win the division?
Vote below in our poll, then head to the comment section to share your thoughts!
Which team will win the Central in 2018/19?
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Milwaukee Bucks 44% (765)
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Indiana Pacers 33% (587)
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Another team 23% (401)
Total votes: 1,753
Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.
Poll: Most Likely 2019 Free Agent Prediction
As we relayed earlier this evening, an ESPN panel was asked where they think some of the top-projected free agents of 2019 might end up next summer.
The panel believes that both Kyrie Irving and Jimmy Butler will end up with the Knicks, while Kawhi Leonard will sign with the Lakers and both Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson will remain with the Warriors in the bay area.
It would still take some doing for the Knicks to open up the cap space for a second max-salary player, but Irving and Butler have reportedly talked about teaming up, potentially in The Big Apple. Moreover, Irving is from the NYC area.
As for Leonard, he and the Lakers have been linked for a while now, with the 27-year-old star already reportedly stating his preference for Los Angeles. Additionally, the Lakers will easily have the cap room to sign Leonard after mostly signing players to one-year deals this summer.
Finally, both Durant and Thompson could be casualties of the Warriors’ luxury tax concerns, especially if the team doesn’t win it all this season and ownership sees the championship window closing, however unlikely that may be.
So, our question tonight is, which of ESPN’s five predictions is most likely to come to fruition? Irving to the Knicks, Butler to the Knicks, Leonard to the Lakers, Durant staying with the Warriors, or Thompson staying with the Warriors?
Vote below in our poll, then head to the comment section to make your case for your pick.
Most Likely 2019 Free Agent Prediction
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Kawhi Leonard - LAL 34% (785)
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Kevin Durant - GSW 27% (625)
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Klay Thompson - GSW 17% (385)
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Kyrie Irving - NYK 16% (377)
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Jimmy Butler - NYK 5% (116)
Total votes: 2,288
Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.
Poll: Which Team Will Win Northwest Division?
There may not be an NBA division more top-heavy than the Atlantic, where the Celtics, Raptors, and Sixers are all projected to win more than 50 games in 2018/19. However, the Atlantic also features the Nets and Knicks, who are widely expected to finish in the lottery.
In terms of top-to-bottom talent, the Northwest has a stronger case to be considered the NBA’s best division. Last season, four Northwest teams made the playoffs and a fifth missed the postseason by a single game. The five clubs finished the regular season separated by just three games, racking up between 46 and 49 wins apiece.
None of those Northwest clubs took a huge step backward this offseason, but there were no massive upgrades either, with many of the most significant roster moves in the division involving re-signing key free agents. As such, oddsmakers once again view the Northwest as a five-team race, with each of those five teams projected to finish above .500.
According to betting site Bodog.eu, the Thunder are consider the very slight favorites to win the Northwest, with an over/under of 49.5 wins for the season. However, the Jazz (49 wins) and Nuggets (47.5) are right behind them, with the Timberwolves (44.5), and Trail Blazers (42.5) within striking distance.
After we asked you on Monday to assess the top of the Atlantic standings for 2018/19, we’re shifting our focus today to the Northwest.
Will the Blazers repeat as division champions? Will the Thunder or Jazz take a step forward and win the Northwest? Or will the Nuggets or Timberwolves go from vying for the No. 8 seed in the West to battling for the division crown?
Vote below in our poll for the 2018/19 Northwest division winner, then head to the comment section to make your case for your pick.
Which team will win the Northwest division in 2018/19?
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Oklahoma City Thunder 31% (420)
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Utah Jazz 28% (378)
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Minnesota Timberwolves 18% (237)
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Denver Nuggets 11% (152)
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Portland Trail Blazers 11% (148)
Total votes: 1,335
Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.
