Offseason Preview

Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Hawks

June 5th, 2012 at 6:38pm CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Joe Johnson ($19,752,645)
Josh Smith ($13,200,000)
Al Horford ($12,000,000)
Marvin Williams ($8,287,500)
Zaza Pachulia ($5,248,750)
Jeff Teague ($2,433,077)

Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Ivan Johnson ($762,195)

Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Kirk Hinrich ($12,000,000)
Jason Collins ($854,389)
Erick Dampier ($854,389)
Willie Green ($854,389)
Tracy McGrady ($854,389)
Jannero Pargo ($854,389)
Vladimir Radmanovic ($854,389)
Jerry Stackhouse ($854,389)
(Hilton Armstrong – $854,389)
(Randolph Morris – $854,389)
(Josh Powell – $854,389)
(Etan Thomas – $854,389)

Draft Picks

1st Round (23rd overall)
2nd Round (43rd overall)

Cap Outlook

Guaranteed Salary: $60,921,972
Non-Guaranteed Salary, Cap Holds: $22,160,474
Total (not including draft picks): $83,082,446

2011/12 was another productive season for Joe Johnson, who averaged over 18 PPG for the seventh straight year and bested his career rates by averaging 18.4 PER and .454/.388/.849 shooting. Unfortunately for Johnson, despite his play on the court, he's still best known for signing one of the most exorbitant contracts in NBA history, one that could handicap the Hawks this summer and in the future.

Johnson's cap figure, which increases to nearly $20MM in 2012/13, isn't the only thing hampering the Hawks' financial flexibility. Teammates Al Horford and Josh Smith will also be making $12MM+, and Marvin Williams is earning $8MM+ himself. Add it all up and the Hawks have committed $60MM+ to six players for next year.

This season, the Hawks dealt with their lack of cap flexibility by signing a plethora of players to minimum-salary deals — Tracy McGrady, Erick Dampier, and Jerry Stackhouse were among the eight players earning minimum salaries for Atlanta in 2011/12. However, relying on the same strategy again likely won't get the team anywhere. For the past few years, the Hawks have been good enough to make the playoffs, but not good enough to seriously contend for the East, and a shake-up is needed if the team hopes to make its way into the top tier of the conference.

Fortunately for the Hawks, the amnesty provision is still a possibility. Unfortunately, the club has so many potential amnesty candidates that they might be best served to hang onto it for now. While a player like Williams looks like a reasonable candidate this season, it might be a mistake for the Hawks to wipe his relatively modest contract off the books and leave themselves defenseless if Horford's or Johnson's deals eventually take a turn for the worse. Assuming Horford is fully healthy, both guys are still productive contributors for now, but each have four years and plenty of money left on their contracts ($48MM for Horford, $89MM+ for Johnson). Having the opportunity to amnesty one of those veterans if they suffer from injuries or declining production later in their deals could be more valuable to Atlanta than lesser immediate savings.

If they don't use the amnesty clause to create cap space, the Hawks could turn to the trade market. Williams may still have a little value to a team interested in a former second overall pick on an expiring contract, though Atlanta likely wouldn't get anything of use in return. The Hawks' more intriguing trade candidate is Smith, who has hoped to be moved for some time. A perennial candidate for All-Star consideration, Smith should be a valuable asset, though considering he's still in Atlanta, it seems the Hawks have yet to find a suitable offer. In my view, the club's best option could be trying to deal Smith in a package for a lottery pick, without taking on much salary in return. A team like the Blazers might be a logical trade partner.

If the Hawks are interested in really blowing things up, making a play for Dwight Howard makes some sense as well. A package that includes Smith and Horford could interest the Magic, and if the Hawks acquired Howard and failed to re-sign him, at least it would give the club some flexibility to regain cap room and rebuild around Johnson.

Atlanta's other asset of note comes in the form of its first-round draft pick. While the Hawks don't pick until 23rd overall, this year's deep class of prospects means that pick could turn into something worthwhile, whether it's a guard like Tony Wroten, a big like Fab Melo, or a wing like Quincy Miller.

The Hawks may not be major players on the free agent market this summer, but it wouldn't be a surprise to hear the team mentioned in a handful of trade rumors. Something has to change if the Hawks are going to turn into a legit Eastern Conference contender, and the trade market seems to present the best opportunity for Atlanta to make significant changes this offseason.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Clippers

June 5th, 2012 at 1:14pm CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Chris Paul ($17,779,458)
DeAndre Jordan ($10,532,977)
Caron Butler ($8,000,000)
Blake Griffin ($7,226,892)
Ryan Gomes ($4,000,000)
Eric Bledsoe ($1,707,720)
Trey Thompkins ($762,195)

Options

Mo Williams ($8,500,000, Player)

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Travis Leslie ($762,195)

Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Randy Foye ($5,525,000)
Nick Young ($4,435,028)
Kenyon Martin ($3,000,000)
Chauncey Billups ($2,400,038)
Reggie Evans ($854,389)
Bobby Simmons ($854,389)

Draft Picks

2nd Round (53rd overall)

Cap Outlook

Guaranteed Salary: $50,009,242
Non-Guaranteed Salary (including options), Cap Holds: $26,331,039
Total (not including draft picks): $76,340,281

Coming off a season in which the team set a franchise record with a .606 winning percentage and reached the second round of the playoffs, it's hard for Clippers fans to be anything but pleased. Chris Paul gave the team a star point guard to pair with the up-and-coming Blake Griffin, who earned All-NBA honors for the first time in his second full season.

But as successful a season as 2011/12 was, the Clippers will need to be careful to ensure it was the first step on the road to contending perenially, rather than an aberration. With GM Neil Olshey heading to Portland, the Clips will be tasked with finding a worthy successor to guide the franchise through a number of tough roster decisions and contract negotiations in the coming year.

While the Clippers won't be forced to make an immediate decision on either Paul or Griffin, contract extensions for the two stars will be a top priority for the club. Griffin is entering the final year of his rookie contract, making him eligible for an extension this offseason. The Clips are reportedly confident about getting something done before the 23-year-old reaches restricted free agency, so you have to assume they're prepared to offer a maximum-salary contract, or something very close to it.

Paul, meanwhile, has committed to his 2012/13 player option, but will be eligible for unrestricted free agency a year from now. A new contract for him this summer may not be as likely as one for Griffin, given the rules surrounding veteran extensions. So it will be crucial for the Clippers to convince him to stay by showing they're committed to making the moves necessary to ensure the team is a contender for years to come.

With no first-round draft pick and limited cap flexibility this summer, however, what exactly can the Clippers do in terms of roster moves? The team has yet to take advantage of the amnesty clause, and while it could go unused, Ryan Gomes' $4MM 2012/13 salary makes him a candidate. If Mo Williams opts into the final year of his contract though, amnestying Gomes would only reduce the team's cap figure from about $58.5MM to $54.5MM, which wouldn't create any usable cap space.

If Williams opts out, the team will have more options at it disposal, but I have a hard time seeing the veteran guard declining his option. As much as Williams seems to desire long-term security, passing up an $8.5MM salary in 2012/13 in favor of a new contract that would significantly reduce his annual salary seems unlikely.

With Williams on their books, the Clippers will be over the cap and will have only the mid-level and bi-annual exceptions to use on free agents. The MLE could give them a chance to bid on a shooting guard such as Jamal Crawford, Ray Allen, or Jason Terry if they don't elect to re-sign Nick Young. The BAE, meanwhile, may not be significant enough to woo an impact player, but we've seen veterans willing to accept discounted deals to play in Los Angeles or New York before. With Paul and Griffin on board for at least another year, the Clippers have become that sort of destination team that free agents could target.

Although free agency seems like the Clippers' best bet at adding another rotation player, a trade is also a possibility. Eric Bledsoe represents the team's strongest and most likely trade chip, though the club has been reluctant to move him in the past. Perhaps if the Clips get the impression that Paul is a good bet to re-sign long-term, they would be more willing to shop Bledsoe, who figures to be the successor at the point if CP3 leaves L.A.

With two star players entering contract years, the Clippers will be faced with a number of challenging decisions within the next year or so. Those decisions will begin this summer, which means Los Angeles will have to move quickly to find a general manager capable of making the right moves. The Clips are in no danger yet of jeopardizing the long-term futures of Paul or Griffin in L.A., but the next few months will be crucial for a franchise that enjoyed its most successful season in 2011/12 and has no desire to backslide into mediocrity.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Boston Celtics

June 4th, 2012 at 3:02pm CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Paul Pierce ($16,790,345)
Rajon Rondo ($11,000,000)
Avery Bradley ($1,630,800)
JaJuan Johnson ($1,120,440)

Options

Brandon Bass ($4,250,000, Player)

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Sean Williams ($915,852)
E'Twaun Moore ($762,195)

Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Kevin Garnett ($22,309,396)
Ray Allen ($15,000,000)
Keyon Dooling ($2,920,320)
Greg Stiemsma ($1,054,389 – QO)
Marquis Daniels ($854,389)
Ryan Hollins ($854,389)
Sasha Pavlovic ($854,389)
Mickael Pietrus ($854,389)
(Jeff Green – $11,139,970)
(Nenad Krstic – $8,314,674)
(Roshown McLeod – $3,772,503)
(Carlos Arroyo – $854,389)
(Dana Barros – $854,389)
(P.J. Brown – $854,389)
(Mark Bryant – $854,389)
(Michael Finley – $854,389)
(Grant Long – $854,389)
(Stephon Marbury – $854,389)
(Shaquille O'Neal – $854,389)
(Michael Olowokandi – $854,389)
(Scot Pollard – $854,389)

Draft Picks

1st Round (21st overall)
1st Round (22nd overall)
2nd Round (51st overall)

Cap Outlook

Guaranteed Salary: $30,541,585
Non-Guaranteed Salary (including options), Cap Holds: $82,400,745
Total (not including draft picks): $112,942,330

Much was made this season of the Celtics' old Big Three of Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, and Ray Allen having one final run together before Boston started its rebuild in the summer. No trades were consummated at the deadline, but the Celtics reportedly discussed a Pierce deal with the Nets and nearly traded Allen to the Grizzlies.

GM Danny Ainge has never been shy about pulling the trigger on a deal he thinks will help the team, even if it won't be a popular move. And with Garnett and Allen facing free agency this summer, there's still a good chance Boston begins the 2012/13 season without the Big Three on its roster. However, the longer the Celtics' season continues, the more convinced I am that this might not be the end for Garnett and Allen in Boston after all.

Garnett, in particular, seems like a reasonable bet to re-sign with the Celtics this summer. He's said in the past that he'd like to retire a Celtic, and his performance this season showed he still has something left in the tank. Allen may be more likely to explore the open market, given all the teams interested in a shooting guard who could target him. But it wouldn't surprise me if both players signed short-term deals to remain in Boston.

Even if KG and Allen are back next season, the team has some flexibility to make roster upgrades around its veterans. The Celtics' amnesty clause will likely remain unused, since the club only has four players on guaranteed contracts for next year. Of those four, only Pierce and Rajon Rondo are owed significant money, and neither are amnesty candidates. But if we assume both Garnett ($21MM+) and Allen ($10MM) will receive paycuts on this year's salaries, the Celtics could have some cap space to work with even without taking advantage of the amnesty clause. In that case, a big man like Chris Kaman seems like a logical target.

If the Celtics do decide to bring back their veterans, it will be interesting to see how they use their pair of first-round draft picks, at No. 21 and 22 overall. The draft class is deep enough that Boston could select a pair of players there and hope that one or both turn into useful contributors. There are plenty of other options though. The team could try to package both picks to move up in the first round, or it could move one or both picks for a veteran player that could be added to the rotation immediately.

Earlier this season, it appeared the Celtics weren't quite a talented enough team to compete in the East with the current roster, but a second-half surge and a deep playoff run have proven that isn't the case. With the Bulls expected to be short-handed again next season due to Derrick Rose's ACL recovery, there's no reason a Celtics team that makes a modest upgrade or two shouldn't contend in the East again.

While it's possible Ainge decides to blow up the roster this summer, it wouldn't surprise me if he puts off major roster changes for at least another year. If Garnett and Allen are willing to sign one- or two-year deals, the Celtics would once again have the opportunity to claim a huge chunk of cap space when those new contracts expired. Ainge is anything but predictable, so there's no guarantee that's the direction he'll choose, but based on how they've played this season, the Celtics may not want to break up the old Big Three quite yet.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Denver Nuggets

June 1st, 2012 at 3:01pm CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Danilo Gallinari ($9,450,000)
Arron Afflalo ($7,562,500)
Al Harrington ($6,687,400)
Wilson Chandler ($5,912,500)
Chris Andersen ($4,526,000)
Corey Brewer ($3,243,000)
Kosta Koufos ($3,000,000)
Ty Lawson ($2,544,529)
Kenneth Faried ($1,311,240)
Jordan Hamilton ($1,121,520)

Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Timofey Mozgov ($3,140,429; partially guaranteed for $1,589,415)
Julyan Stone ($762,195)

Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Andre Miller ($11,711,592)
JaVale McGee ($6,156,000)
Rudy Fernandez ($5,451,108)
(Wesley Person – $854,389)

Draft Picks

1st Round (20th overall)
2nd Round (38th overall)
2nd Round (50th overall)

Cap Outlook

Guaranteed Salary: $46,948,104
Non-Guaranteed Salary, Cap Holds: $26,486,298
Total (not including draft picks): $73,434,402

Over a year removed from the blockbuster trade that sent Carmelo Anthony to New York, the Nuggets have moved quickly to lock up their new franchise cornerstones. Three players acquired in that deal, Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, and Kosta Koufos, received extensions for three or more years, while veteran guard Arron Afflalo signed a five-year contract to stay in Denver.

While the Nuggets only have about $47MM committed to 2012/13 salaries so far, the offseason likely won't be about pursuing free agents as much as it will be about continuing to lock up their current players. JaVale McGee and Ty Lawson are next in line for potential long-term deals, with McGee facing restricted free agency this summer and Lawson entering the final year of his rookie contract. If both players receive new contracts from Denver in the coming months, the Nuggets will essentially have their core in place through 2016.

Of course, it's no guarantee that McGee will be re-signed or that Lawson will be extended. McGee has only been a Nugget for a couple months, having been acquired from the Wizards in a deadline deal. He showed flashes of brilliance in the team's playoff series against the Lakers, and moving from Washington to Denver seemed to reduce the mental lapses and errors in judgment that plagued him as a Wizard. Typically, bidding is fierce for big men in restricted free agency, and perhaps the Nuggets would be unwilling to match an aggressive offer for McGee, but I fully expect them to at least think hard about matching offers up to $9-10MM.

Lawson may actually be the better bet to receive a long-term contract from Denver this summer, following an impressive third season in which he set career highs in PPG (16.4) and PER (19.4), among other categories. The Lawson that showed up in the postseason (19.0 PPG, 6.0 APG, 51.4 FG%) looked like a player on the verge of stardom, and one that the Nuggets won't want to let hit the open market next summer.

If the team re-signs McGee, its free agent options will likely be limited to the mid-level and bi-annual exceptions, but that wouldn't be a bad scenario — with McGee, Kenneth Faried, Al Harrington, and Koufos in the frontcourt, along with Gallinari, Chandler, Afflalo, and Corey Brewer on the wing, and Lawson manning the point, there are no glaring holes that need to be addressed in free agency. Another point guard will be necessary, whether that means re-signing Andre Miller or looking elsewhere, and if the Nuggets decide to amnesty Chris Andersen, acquiring another big would make sense. But the Anthony trade allowed Denver to address multiple positions in a single stroke, and the club can afford to look for value on the free agent market rather than desperately trying to land any particular player.

Also at the Nuggets' disposal is the 20th pick in the draft. If McGee isn't re-signed, that could be a spot to target a young center like Fab Melo, but otherwise the Nuggets have the freedom to take the best player available, which could end up being a guy like Moe Harkless, Quincy Miller, Tony Wroten Jr., or Marquis Teague. With no need to insert a rookie into the rotation, the team could even consider selecting French guard Evan Fournier and stashing him overseas for the immediate future.

The Nuggets' roster is well-constructed, with balance at every position and no obvious weaknesses. Time will tell whether this young squad can develop into a legit contender without an elite, go-to scorer like Anthony, but for this summer at least, I expect the Nuggets to continue the approach they've taken since the 'Melo deal. In addition to maintaining strong depth throughout the roster, that will mean locking up the young players that figure to be part of the nucleus in Denver for years to come.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Orlando Magic

May 31st, 2012 at 2:37pm CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Dwight Howard ($19,536,360)
Hedo Turkoglu ($11,815,850)
Glen Davis ($6,400,000)
Jason Richardson ($5,799,625)
Chris Duhon ($3,250,000)
Quentin Richardson ($2,627,400)
Justin Harper ($762,195)

Options

Jameer Nelson ($8,600,000, Player)
Earl Clark ($1,240,000, Player)

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

J.J. Redick ($6,190,000)

Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Ryan Anderson ($5,611,503)
Fran Vasquez ($1,772,100)
Daniel Orton ($1,182,600)
Ish Smith ($1,054,389 – QO)
DeAndre Liggins ($962,195 – QO)
(Pat Garrity – $7,342,075)
(Tyronn Lue – $2,700,000)
(Anthony Johnson – $2,681,640)
(Malik Allen – $854,389)
(Adonal Foyle – $854,389)
(Jeremy Richardson – $854,389)

Draft Picks

1st Round (19th overall)
2nd Round (49th overall)

Cap Outlook

Guaranteed Salary: $50,191,430
Non-Guaranteed Salary (including options), Cap Holds: $41,899,669
Total (not including draft picks): $92,091,099

2010 brought us The Decision. 2011 featured plenty of 'Melodrama. And in 2012, we were treated to the Dwightmare in Orlando. The Magic's 2011/12 season was dominated by Dwight Howard trade rumors, as the NBA's top center seemed to change his mind every few days about whether he wanted to be traded or remain in Orlando.

While some members of the Magic front office likely wouldn't have minded dealing Howard at the deadline and moving on from the entire situation, D12 eventually decided to waive his early termination option, locking him into another year in Orlando. So, welcome to the Dwightmare, Part II. With Otis Smith out and a new general manager on the way in, the Magic are contemplating how to move forward with Howard, but one thing seems clear: If the team doesn't get a firm commitment from Howard that he'll sign a long-term extension, it won't hesitate to find the best possible return for him in a trade.

If the Magic had the assets or the flexibility to bring in complementary pieces to play with Howard, the possibility of a blockbuster trade may not be looming over the offseason. But having used the amnesty clause already on Gilbert Arenas, the Magic don't have the opportunity to clear another bad contract in a single stroke. The team's first-round pick (19th overall) doesn't have much trade value, and the team's second-most tradable player, Ryan Anderson, will be a free agent in July.

Outside of a Howard trade, free agency seems like the team's best bet at bringing in more talent, but even on that front, options are limited. Assuming Jameer Nelson exercises his player option or negotiates a new deal with the club, the Magic figure to be at or over the salary cap line even before making a decision on J.J. Redick, whose $6.19MM salary is non-guaranteed. Orlando will probably have the $5MM mid-level exception at its disposal, but if Howard seems to be on his way out of town, either this offseason or next, it's unlikely that an impact player would be eager to sign with the Magic over other contenders.

The Magic's best chance at landing a significant return for Howard and accelerating their rebuilding process may have slipped through their fingers on Wednesday night, when Brooklyn failed to land the top pick in the draft lottery. The idea of a Howard/Anthony Davis swap likely would have appealed to both teams, and would've given Orlando a young, affordable potential superstar to cushion the blow of losing its own longtime star. But without Davis on the table, trade packages for Howard range from moderately appealing to entirely undesirable. The best of the bunch, if the Lakers were willing to put it on the table, is probably a deal centered around Andrew Bynum.

It may seem unfair or short-sighted to suggest that the Magic's entire offseason revolves around what happens with Howard, but it's a hard point to argue. If a trade is consummated, Orlando could potentially include a bad contract like Hedo Turkoglu's or Jason Richardson's and gain some cap flexibility as the post-Howard era begins. If Howard isn't traded, the Magic figure to do everything they can to build a championship contender around him. In my view though, that ship has sailed. I think the Magic should shop D12 this summer, take the best offer they get, and prepare to move forward with players who definitely want to be in Orlando, rather than endlessly trying to appease someone who can't make up his mind.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Utah Jazz

May 30th, 2012 at 3:48pm CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Al Jefferson ($15,000,000)
Paul Millsap ($8,603,633)
Devin Harris ($8,500,000)
Derrick Favors ($4,753,320)
Enes Kanter ($4,319,280)
Raja Bell ($3,480,000)
Gordon Hayward ($2,709,720)
Alec Burks ($2,111,160)
Earl Watson ($2,000,000)

Options

Jamaal Tinsley ($1,352,181, Team)

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Blake Ahearn ($885,120)

Free Agents (Cap Holds)

C.J. Miles ($7,030,000)
Josh Howard ($2,580,000)
DeMarre Carroll ($1,085,120 – QO)
Jeremy Evans ($1,054,389 – QO)
(Andrei Kirilenko – $18,091,250)
(Greg Ostertag – $6,305,000)
(Brevin Knight– $2,600,000)

Draft Picks

1st Round (Pending lottery, 27.3% chance of obtaining Warriors' top-seven-protected pick)
2nd Round (47th overall)

Cap Outlook

Guaranteed Salary: $51,477,653
Non-Guaranteed Salary (including options), Cap Holds: $39,630,879
Total (not including draft picks): $91,108,532

A year removed from trading Deron Williams to the Nets, the Jazz weren't expected to be much of a threat in the West in 2011/12. Four of Utah's players, Derrick Favors, Enes Kanter, Gordon Hayward, and Alec Burks, were in either their first or second season in the league, and it appeared the Jazz would be heading back to the lottery. But Utah put together an impressive season, playing competitive ball and earning a playoff berth in a tough conference.

After running into the wrecking ball that is the 2012 San Antonio Spurs, however, the Jazz's postseason appearance appears to be a mixed blessing. While accelerating the rebuilding process and returning to the postseason so quickly was impressive, it cost the Jazz their lottery-protected first-round pick this year. Pending tonight's lottery results, the Jazz could be without a first-rounder entirely. As impressive as this season was, Utah could definitely have used that pick to either add another young player to its roster or to attract trade interest.

Even without a first-round pick though, the Jazz have a number of trade options available to them this summer. Between veterans Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson and youngsters Favors and Kanter, the team has an excess of big men. The former pair's production and the latter pair's potential would certainly draw interest from clubs in need of size, and a trade may be the best way for the Jazz to add wing talent. While Hayward had a promising season at shooting guard, the Jazz will have a hole to fill at small forward this summer. Players like Danny Granger, Andre Iguodala, or Rudy Gay could be potential trade targets.

The Jazz still have the amnesty clause at their disposal as well, and though the team doesn't have any particularly unwieldy contracts on its books, Raja Bell is a candidate to be amnestied if he can't be traded. Removing his $3.48MM salary would leave Utah with about $48MM committed to eight players, which would give them the opportunity to claim a little cap room. With that space, the Jazz could make a competitive offer to Andrei Kirilenko, who has talked about a potential return to Utah and would be a good fit for the club's small forward hole.

As glaring a hole as the Jazz have at that small forward position, it's not their only area of need. A starting backcourt of Devin Harris and Hayward isn't exactly elite, and the Jazz would do well to bring in another guard or two. Whether that backcourt help comes in the form of a trade or a free agent signing depends on Utah's other moves, but I think a player like Jerryd Bayless, who could come off the bench and play either the one or two, would be a fit.

Although the Jazz have a few trade and free agent options available to them this summer, it won't be until the trade deadline or next summer that the team's decisions will get really interesting. At the moment, the Jazz don't have a single player on a guaranteed contract for the 2013/14 season. Even after players on rookie deals like Favors, Kanter, and Hayward have their options picked up, Jefferson, Millsap, Harris, and others will be on expiring contracts next season. Given their lack of long-term commitments, the Jazz will have the opportunity to sign contract extensions or make multiyear offers to free agents without compromising the team's future cap flexibility too much.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia 76ers

May 28th, 2012 at 4:53pm CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Andre Iguodala ($14,718,250)
Thaddeus Young ($8,039,130)
Evan Turner ($5,293,080)
Jrue Holiday ($2,674,852)
Nikola Vucevic ($1,719,480)

Options

Elton Brand ($18,160,355, ETO)
Lou Williams ($5,351,500, ETO)

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Xavier Silas ($762,195)

Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Spencer Hawes ($7,696,946)
Jodie Meeks ($2,695,391 – QO)
Sam Young ($2,251,025)
Craig Brackins ($1,503,000)
Lavoy Allen ($962,195 – QO)
Tony Battie ($854,389)
(Darius Songaila – $9,154,200)
(Antonio Daniels – $854,389)
(Allen Iverson – $854,389)
(Donyell Marshall – $854,389)

Draft Picks

1st Round (15th overall)
2nd Round (45th overall)
2nd Round (54th overall)

Cap Outlook

Guaranteed Salary (including options): $55,956,647
Non-Guaranteed Salary, Cap Holds: $28,442,508
Total (not including draft picks): $84,399,155

A team plagued by injuries in the early part of the season, the 76ers found themselves benefiting from injury woes when the postseason got underway. After upsetting a depleted Bulls team in round one, Philadelphia nearly knocked off a banged-up Celtics squad to reach the Eastern Conference Finals. Ultimately though, the Sixers couldn't pull off another upset and now find themselves in familiar territory: Wondering what changes to make this offseason to get the team to the next level.

The roster figures to undergo more upheaval than usual this summer, as a number of the 76ers' key contributors are facing potential free agency. Philadelphia probably wouldn't mind if Elton Brand opted out of the final year of his contract, worth $18MM+. But players like Spencer Hawes and Lou Williams were affordable contributors that could hit the unrestricted market in a matter of weeks.

Fortunately for the Sixers, the amnesty clause is still at their disposal, and it figures to be used on Brand once he opts into the final year of his deal. Assuming Williams waives his early termination option to either explore the open market or negotiate a new long-term contract with the Sixers, the club's 2012/13 salary committments will be reduced to about $32MM, giving team president Rod Thorn and his staff plenty of flexibility to make improvements.

While that potential cap space will be crucial to the team's roster moves this summer, long-time small forward Andre Iguodala may prove even more central to the Sixers' plans. With two years remaining on his contract, Iguodala will be a coveted trade candidate for teams in need of a productive forward and an elite wing defender.

Finding a trade partner for Iguodala may be easier said than done, however, considering the Sixers will likely seek an All-Star in return. If Brand is gone, a trade for a power forward would make sense, and Pau Gasol and Al Jefferson could be targets, but I doubt a one-for-one deal would work in either instance. As the Sixers have found in recent years, Iguodala probably will never be the best player on a title contender, so it's hard to imagine him drawing that sort of player in a trade.

Still, even if the Sixers don't find a power forward they like in a trade involving Iguodala, there will be opportunities to upgrade the roster. Amnestying Brand and re-signing Williams to a modest raise should leave Philadelphia with over $15MM in cap space. That would give the team plenty of room to pursue a free agent power forward, such as Kris Humphries, Ersan Ilyasova, Carl Landry, or Antawn Jamison. Kevin Garnett will also be available, though perhaps he and the so-called "fairweather" fans in Philadelphia wouldn't be a fit.

Armed with the amnesty clause, trade chips, and a mid-first-round draft pick, the Sixers will have plenty of options this summer. In addition to the possibilities I've already mentioned, exploring trades for Evan Turner could be something the team considers. Whatever the Sixers decide, I expect we'll see plenty of differences between this year's team and next year's. And if Philadelphia amnesties Brand and can take advantage of its cap space and trade assets, the Sixers we see in the fall could be far better equipped to make a run in the Eastern playoffs a year from now, whether or not they're aided by opposing injuries.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

Offseason Outlook: Dallas Mavericks

May 28th, 2012 at 10:56am CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Dirk Nowitzki ($20,907,128)
Shawn Marion ($8,692,881)
Brendan Haywood ($8,349,000)
Rodrigue Beaubois ($2,227,333)
Dominique Jones ($1,276,560)

Options

Kelenna Azubuike ($992,680, Team)

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Lamar Odom ($8,200,000; partially guaranteed for $2,400,000)
Vince Carter ($3,090,000; partially guaranteed for $2,000,000)
Brandan Wright ($992,680)

Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Jason Terry ($16,737,000)
Jason Kidd ($14,431,500)
Brian Cardinal ($854,389)
Yi Jianlian ($854,389)
Ian Mahinmi ($854,389)
Delonte West ($854,389)
(Vernon Maxwell – $854,389)
(Johnny Newman – $854,389)
(Peja Stojakovic – $854,389)
(Walt Williams – $854,389)
(Kevin Willis – $854,389)

Draft Picks

1st Round (17th overall)
2nd Round (55th overall)

Cap Outlook

Guaranteed Salary: $45,852,902
Non-Guaranteed Salary (including options), Cap Holds: $47,733,361
Total (not including draft picks): $93,586,263

It may be a while before we see a title defense as unusual as the Mavericks' in 2011/12. The lockout started things off on the wrong foot, with Dirk Nowitzki showing up for the season unprepared and out of shape. And parting ways with players like Tyson Chandler and J.J. Barea, who were integral to the 2011 championship team, was an ominous sign too. Predictably, Dallas didn't go anywhere in the postseason, eliminated by the Thunder in a first round sweep.

As the summer begins, the question facing the Mavericks is whether or not the team's increased cap flexibility will be worth breaking up the defending champs. Without long-term contracts for Chandler and Barea, the Mavs are in good position to avoid increased luxury tax penalties in the coming years. But are they well-positioned to make a splash this summer that will stop fans from asking "What if?"

A brief look at the Mavs' 2012/13 contract situation might be a little surprising — you'd think a team that was expected to be a player for both Deron Williams and Dwight Howard this offseason would have less guaranteed salary on its books than $45MM+. Of course, using the amnesty clause on Brendan Haywood will help create some room, and with Howard locked in for another year in Orlando, Williams is the Mavs' clear top priority now. But if they can't clear salary besides Haywood's, Dallas will barely have the space to make Williams a maximum offer.

With one marquee free agent to pursue rather than two, the need to create additional cap space isn't quite as pressing. However, I still expect Dallas to explore trades involving Shawn Marion, Lamar Odom, Vince Carter, and Rodrigue Beaubois, simply because I don't think the roster as constructed is strong enough to woo Williams to Dallas. If the Mavs can clear enough salary to bring in a third impact player to complement a Nowitzki/Williams duo, perhaps that piques the interest of the All-Star point guard.

If Williams turns down the Mavs, virtually every player on the open market becomes a possible target for Dallas, including their own free agents, like Jason Terry and Jason Kidd. Steve Nash, Goran Dragic, and Jeremy Lin are a few of the point guard alternatives to Williams, and shooters like Steve Novak and Ryan Anderson make some sense too. The Mavs may end up exploring the market at virtually every position, considering Nowitzki is the only set-in-stone core piece.

In addition to having cap space and the amnesty clause at their disposal, the Mavs kept their top-2o-protected first-round pick this season when it landed at #17. In a draft that's expected to be a deep one, that pick has some value as a trade chip, though Dallas may be better off keeping it. The club could use an infusion of young talent, and there's a good chance an intriguing prospect slips that far, whether it's a two guard like Jeremy Lamb, Dion Waiters, or Terrence Ross, or a young center like Meyers Leonard or Fab Melo.

Like the Nets, the Mavericks appear to be heading into the offseason with a "Deron Williams or bust" mentality. Failing to land the hometown star would create a dilemma for Mark Cuban and the Mavs — do you pursue the next-best short-term alternatives to give Dirk a chance to make another title run, or do you regroup entirely and try to stock up on young talent? I tend to believe the Mavs will lean toward the former option, but I don't see an easy way of doing it, which should make it an interesting summer in Dallas.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

Offseason Outlook: New York Knicks

May 25th, 2012 at 11:33am CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Carmelo Anthony ($20,463,024)
Amare Stoudemire ($19,948,799)
Tyson Chandler ($13,604,188)
Toney Douglas ($2,067,880)
(Renaldo Balkman – $1,675,000)
Iman Shumpert ($1,633,440)

Options

J.R. Smith ($2,489,559, Player)

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Josh Harrellson ($762,195)
Jerome Jordan ($762,195)

Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Landry Fields ($2,695,391 – QO)
Jeremy Lin ($1,054,389 – QO)
Mike Bibby ($854,389)
Baron Davis ($854,389)
Dan Gadzuric ($854,389)
Jared Jeffries ($854,389)
Steve Novak ($854,389)

Draft Picks

2nd Round (48th overall)

Cap Outlook

Guaranteed Salary: $59,392,331
Non-Guaranteed Salary (including options), Cap Holds: $12,035,674
Total (not including draft picks): $71,428,005

The challenge facing the Knicks this offseason has been well-documented by now. I even examined it already myself. But let's recap the highlights:

The significant amount of long-term money committed to Carmelo Anthony, Amare Stoudemire, and Tyson Chandler means the Knicks are already over the cap with only five players under contract.
The Knicks have a number of free agents they'd like to retain, including Jeremy Lin, Landry Fields, J.R. Smith, and Steve Novak.
The Knicks hold Fields' Early Bird rights, but assuming the players' union doesn't win its appeal, New York will only have Non-Bird rights on Lin, Smith, and Novak.
In that case, the Knicks would almost certainly have to use some or all of their mid-level exception to match offers for Lin. If they use more than $3MM of the MLE, their 2012/13 payroll will essentially be hard-capped at $74MM, the tax "apron," since taxpaying teams aren't permitted to use more than a $3MM mid-level.

It's a fascinating predicament for the Knicks. If they match a big offer for Lin, bringing back Fields, Smith, or Novak becomes difficult, and signing an impact free agent would probably be a pipe dream. Letting Lin walk certainly seems to make the most sense from a basketball and cap perspective, but will the team want to risk fan backlash and lose the marketing opportunities that Linsanity created?

There are ways the Knicks could avoid letting the Lin decision affect their entire offseason, but none of them are particularly likely or appealing. Trading one or more of Anthony, Stoudemire, and Chandler would give the team some breathing room, but owner James Dolan seems unwilling to part with Carmelo. The Knicks would also likely be reluctant to move Chandler, who was last year's big signing and this season's Defensive Player of the Year. And while I'm sure the club would be very open to dealing Amare, the uninsurable $65MM+ remaining on his contract makes that virtually impossible.

If a trade isn't consummated, perhaps one or more of the Knicks' free agents would be willing to sign a discounted deal to make things easier on the club. But that's equally hard to imagine. Why would Lin, for instance, sign a minimum-salary contract when this summer represents his best – and perhaps only – chance at a huge payday?

Retooling this Knicks' roster will be tricky, but I think if Lin signs something close to a max offer sheet with another team, New York should let him go. Due to the Gilbert Arenas provision, matching such an offer would mean the Knicks would be on the hook for eight-digit salaries for Lin in the third and fourth years of the contract. In that scenario, the Knicks would have committed an incredible $75MM+ to Anthony, Stoudemire, Chandler, and Lin for the 2014/15 season, long after more punitive luxury-tax penalties take effect. The Knicks have already sacrificied cap flexibility by inking three long-term, big-money deals. Adding a fourth big contract to the mix seems to be asking for trouble.

If the Knicks let Lin walk, the team could comfortably re-sign Landry Fields and have its full mid-level exception to use on another free agent. I expect top point guards like Steve Nash and Goran Dragic will get offers that exceed the $5MM mid-level, but it's not inconceivable that Nash, Dragic, or another player would be willing to accept a slightly discounted deal for a chance to play in New York.

The cap restrictions the Knicks are up against this summer are part of what makes building an NBA roster such a challenge. Whichever approach GM Glen Grunwald and his staff decide to take, I'll be very interested to see how the team's offseason plays out and what its roster looks like in the fall.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

Offseason Outlook: Houston Rockets

May 24th, 2012 at 12:19pm CST by Luke Adams

Guaranteed Contracts

Kevin Martin ($12,439,675)
Luis Scola ($9,408,207)
Kyle Lowry ($5,750,000)
Patrick Patterson ($2,096,760)
Marcus Morris ($1,905,360)
Donatas Motiejunas ($1,134,500)
Chandler Parsons ($888,250)

Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts

Samuel Dalembert ($6,700,000; partially guaranteed for $1,500,000)
Chase Budinger ($885,120)
Greg Smith ($762,195)
Courtney Fortson ($762,195)
Diamon Simpson ($762,195)

Free Agents (Cap Holds)

Marcus Camby ($16,840,875)
Courtney Lee ($5,562,733)
Goran Dragic ($4,005,200)
Earl Boykins ($854,389)

Draft Picks

1st Round (14th overall, pending lottery; 0.5% chance at first overall pick)
1st Round (16th overall)

Cap Outlook

Guaranteed Salary: $35,122,752
Non-Guaranteed Salary, Cap Holds: $35,634,902
Total (not including draft picks): $70,757,654

Ever since Yao Ming saw his career derailed by injuries and Tracy McGrady's production fell off a cliff, the Rockets have been searching for their next star player. While guys like Kyle Lowry, Kevin Martin, and Luis Scola have turned into solid contributors and show flashes of brilliance, Houston has missed the postseason for three straight years, and is still lacking the sort of star that can take them to the next level.

The Rockets thought they'd landed that player in December when they agreed to a blockbuster deal that would have sent Pau Gasol to Houston. Of course, we all know how that turned out — commissioner David Stern nixed the deal on behalf of the Hornets, and GM Daryl Morey and the Rockets headed back to the drawing board. Now, Houston heads into the 2012 offseason once again searching for that star that will make the club a legit contender.

Morey and the Rockets have a couple factors working in their favor when it comes to potential roster moves. With only about $35MM committed in guaranteed salaries, the team will have some cap space to work with, even if it decides to retain one or more of its own free agents. The only real star on the open market is Deron Williams, and the Rockets don't seem to be on his wishlist, but that cap space could be an asset to put toward other free agents or trades.

The other factor working in Houston's favor? If Morey wants to make another run at Gasol, he couldn't ask for a better time to do it. The Spaniard's star has faded a little in Los Angeles over the last few months, and it's hard to imagine the Lakers' asking price being quite as high as it was in December. A package centered around Martin and Scola likely wouldn't interest the Lakers, but perhaps a third team could get involved to facilitate a deal.

The bad news for the Rockets if they intend to pursue Gasol is that the player the Lakers really want - Lowry – also saw his stock drop a little this year, after he missed most of the second half and underwent surgery for a sports hernia at season's end. The Rockets displayed an unwillingness to trade a healthy, productive Lowry for Gasol earlier in 2012, but perhaps the emergence of Goran Dragic would make Lowry slightly more expendable, assuming Houston brings back Dragic.

While they may still be searching for that one core piece to add to the roster, the Rockets have done a nice job adding complementary players. The team has a good deal of young, affordable talent, including Patrick Patterson, Chase Budinger, and Chandler Parsons, and is poised to add even more — Houston is expected to sign last year's draft pick Donatas Motiejunas, and the team holds the 14th and 16th picks in this year's draft. The 2012 class is deep enough that the prospects available for the Rockets might not be any less productive than players selected 10 spots earlier.

If the Rockets don't draft a center or acquire one via trade, I expect the position to be the team's top priority in free agency. There are a number of intriguing names on the market this summer, and while Houston may not aggressively pursue restricted free agents like JaVale McGee, Roy Hibbert, or Brook Lopez, an unrestricted player such as Chris Kaman could make a lot of sense for the Rockets.

Still, for the Rockets, the offseason all comes down to landing does that star player. Does Gasol still qualify? And if not, will Houston's cap space, draft picks, and trade candidates be enough to acquire someone who does? That'll be the task facing Morey this summer as he looks to upgrade the Rockets' roster from one that's a borderline playoff contender to one that can hang with the top teams in the West.

Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.

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