The Warriors continued to build a case in 2017/18 to be considered the most impressive NBA dynasty of the 21st century, taking home their third title in four years. Golden State now has a staggering 265-63 (.808) regular-season record since the start of the 2014/15 campaign, and if it weren’t for a collapse in the 2016 NBA Finals, the club would enter the 2018/19 season in search of its fifth straight championship.
No dynasty lasts forever, but three of the Warriors’ four stars remain under contract for 2018/19, and Kevin Durant is a virtual lock to re-sign once the new league year begins. As long as those four players remain on the roster, the organization’s championship window isn’t closing anytime soon.
Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:
1. What will Durant’s new contract look like?
An April report indicated that Durant would turn down his 2018/19 player option and sign a new deal with the Warriors, and the two-time Finals MVP essentially confirmed as much this month. Meanwhile, general manager Bob Myers has stated publicly that Golden State is willing to give Durant “whatever he wants” on his new contract after the star forward took a team-friendly discount a year ago.
Durant is in a somewhat unusual situation though, so there’s no obvious answer as to what he’ll want. Having agreed to 1+1 contracts in each of the last two summers, he’s ineligible to sign such a deal this year unless he once again settles for less than the maximum. The Early Bird exception prohibits players from signing one-year deals or two-year deals with a second-year option. In order to sign a contract with that structure, the club would have to use the Non-Bird exception, which would limit Durant’s salary to $30MM, well below his projected $35.35MM max.
As such, it might be time for Durant to sign a long-term max contract. However, without full Bird rights, he’s limited to four years rather than five. Of course, a four-year, maximum-salary deal would still result in a massive payday (approximately $158MM based on current cap projections), but if Durant is willing to wait one more year for long-term security, it might make sense for him to accept that one-year, $30MM contract for 2018/19.
In that scenario, Durant would be eligible for a five-year max contract a year from now, when the cap is expected to make a larger jump. If the cap increases to $108MM – the current projection – for 2019/20, a five-year deal could be worth up to approximately $219MM, which would make up for taking less than the max again in ’18/19.
2. Will the Warriors extend Klay Thompson and/or Draymond Green this offseason?
With Stephen Curry locked up for the next four seasons and Durant a candidate to sign a long-term contract this offseason, the Warriors’ focus could shift to their other two All-Stars. Green has two years and $36MM left on his current contract, while Thompson will earn $19MM in the final year of his deal in 2018/19. Both will be extension-eligible this summer.
In the wake of the Warriors’ NBA Finals win, owner Joe Lacob suggested that the team will make an effort to extend both Thompson and Green in the coming months, but one is a more realistic possibility than the other. Green, who says he took a modest discount on his last deal to help accommodate the Dubs’ pursuit of Durant, will reportedly turn down any extension offer he receives from the club this year. That’s not a surprise — he’s still two years away from the open market, and his earning potential would be higher as a free agent.
Thompson, however, is a more interesting case. The low-maintenance star appears to be perfectly happy in Golden State, so even though he could maximize his earning potential by waiting until free agency to sign a new contract, he may be open to getting something done early. In fact, the two sides have already had discussions about a new deal.
The NBA’s rules related to veteran extensions limit Thompson’s maximum extension to four years for about $102MM, which is well below the max, but it’s still a significant sum. If he were to tack that onto the end of his current contract, it would total approximately $121MM over the next five years. Those numbers might strike a perfect balance between how high the Warriors are willing to go to keep their core intact and how far below the max Thompson is willing to go to remain in a perfect situation.
3. Which Warriors players won’t be back next season?
Curry, Durant, Thompson, and Green aren’t going anywhere. In all likelihood, Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston aren’t going anywhere either. Damian Jones, Jordan Bell, and Quinn Cook figure to stay put too, since they’re young players earning the minimum. That leaves six spots on the Warriors’ roster that will likely undergo some changes for next season.
Those changes will happen primarily at center, where Zaza Pachulia and David West aren’t expected to return. Retirement is a possibility for both veterans. JaVale McGee isn’t a lock to be back either, nor is Kevon Looney, who might have priced himself out of Golden State’s plans with a strong 2017/18 performance — because they declined his fourth-year team option, the Warriors can’t offer Looney a starting salary worth more than about $2.23MM, the value of that option.
On the wing, Nick Young will probably move on after winning his title. And Patrick McCaw might head elsewhere too after an underwhelming 2017/18 showing. McCaw is still just 22 years old and has displayed some potential, but he seems like a better fit on a rebuilding team that could be patient with his ups and downs, rather than on a title contender where he’d be expected to reliably fill a specific role.
4. How will the Warriors fill out their bench?
The offseason departures should give the Warriors a chance to balance out their bench, which has been loaded with little-used centers for the past couple years. The club’s top priority when addressing its second unit this offseason should be adding at least a couple wings who can knock down three-pointers. Young and Omri Casspi were supposed to be those players last season, and while they finished with solid overall numbers, they were somewhat inconsistent on a game-to-game basis.
Many of the players on the free agent market who would fit the Warriors’ criteria will likely receive larger offers than what Golden State could accommodate. With only the taxpayer mid-level exception available, the Dubs won’t be able to hand out a starting salary worth more than about $5.3MM. Guys like Tyreke Evans, Avery Bradley, Trevor Ariza, Will Barton, J.J. Redick, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Joe Harris could probably do better.
Still, the Warriors should keep an eye on that market to see if anyone slips through the cracks. A player like Rodney Hood, whose stock took a hit late in the 2017/18 season, could be an option. And sometimes impact players are unexpectedly willing to take a discount to sign in Golden State, given the team’s ability to compete for a title on an annual basis.
Faced with the possibility of losing four players who saw the majority of their minutes at center (Pachulia, West, McGee, and Looney), the Warriors can’t ignore that position entirely, but there’s probably no need to add more than one or two veteran bigs to the mix, especially if Bell and Jones are ready for larger roles. Kyle O’Quinn, who turned down his player option with the Knicks, is a popular hypothetical target for the Dubs.
5. Will the Warriors be able to add a contributor or two in the draft?
Having expressed a desire to get a little younger this summer, the Warriors likely won’t fill out their bench entirely with veterans. Golden State holds the No. 28 selection in what looks like a pretty deep draft, and there are whispers that the club has been looking to acquire a pick in the 30s too.
It remains to be seen if any team picking early in the second round will be open to selling a pick to the Warriors after all the criticism the Bulls took a year ago for doing just that. But the Dubs will be able to make a compelling offer, with all $5.1MM of their allotted trade money for 2018/19 still available.
Whether or not the Warriors acquire an extra selection, the No. 28 pick offers a good opportunity to land a young wing. Melvin Frazier, Hamidou Diallo, Jacob Evans, and Gary Trent Jr. are among the prospects in that range who worked out for the Warriors in the days leading up to the draft, and there’s no shortage of other candidates out there.
Here’s where things currently stand for the Warriors financially:
Guaranteed Salary
- Stephen Curry ($37,457,154)
- Klay Thompson ($18,988,725)
- Draymond Green ($17,469,565)
- Andre Iguodala ($16,000,000)
- Shaun Livingston ($8,307,692)
- Quinn Cook ($1,544,951)
- Damian Jones ($1,544,951)
- Jordan Bell ($1,378,242)
- Jason Thompson ($945,126) — Waived via stretch provision
- Total: $103,636,406
Player Options
- Kevin Durant ($26,250,000)
- Total: $26,250,000
Team Options
- None
Non-Guaranteed Salary
- None
Restricted Free Agents
- Patrick McCaw ($1,699,698 qualifying offer / $1,699,698 cap hold): Early Bird rights
- Total: $1,699,698
Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds
- Nick Young ($6,230,400): Non-Bird rights
- Zaza Pachulia ($4,520,880): Early Bird rights
- Kevon Looney ($2,227,081): Bird rights1
- No. 28 overall pick ($1,630,249)
- Matt Barnes ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
- JaVale McGee ($1,499,698): Early Bird rights
- David West ($1,499,698): Early Bird rights
- Total: $19,107,704
Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000
Projected Cap Room: None
- Durant intends to opt out of his contract and sign a new deal with the Warriors. Even before taking that new deal into account, Golden State projects to be over the cap, with $103MM+ in guaranteed salaries.
Footnotes:
- Looney’s Bird rights are limited because the Warriors declined the fourth-year option on his rookie scale contract. Any contract offer from Golden State can’t have a starting salary that exceeds his cap hold.
Note: Rookie scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.
Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
f GS doesnt add someone that can help them in their rotation, I could see them being vulnerable to Boston or Philly next year, depending on what philly does. It will be year 5 for them, and a couple of their guys are starting to get a little older, like Livingston and Iguodala, and it’s still not clear if David West will be back as a big that can defend and stretch the floor a bit and pass out of the high post. They could use 1 or 2 guys for reinforcements for next year. That being said, they’re the obvious favorites barring anything crazy
I think Zaza is gone, Javale is gone, Nick Young is gone, West retires, McCaw might be gone, Jones might be gone.
They should try to keep Looney if they can.
I could see Anthony Tolliver, Trevor Booker, Seth Curry, someone on the wing if they have their mid level although there isnt much out there, the 28th pick (There should be a potential 2 way wing in those spots, and I have them taking Kyri Thomas), and maybe they can buy another 2nd round pick, or I can see them giving Okafor a look to possibly replace Zaza, although he would probably barely play, or maybe they use a roster spot on someone they want to call up from the G-league
Jacob Evans is another perfect fit pick for them. Amazing. I would compare him to a Jae Crowder type of player
Is it just me, but I do miss the good ol’ days of the Run TMC, & later on Spree & C-Webb, those were the teams that made me fall in love with small ball, but now everyone does it, so I have fallen out of it.