Every year, former first-round picks who are entering the fourth and final season of their rookie scale contracts become eligible to sign rookie scale extensions, which allow their teams to lock them up for multiple seasons and avoid restricted free agency.
As we detailed on Wednesday, there are 24 players who will become eligible for rookie scale extensions this year, whenever the 2020/21 league year officially begins.
In recent years, as few as four players (2017) and as many as nine (2019) have signed offseason rookie scale extensions. However, given the unusual circumstances created by the coronavirus pandemic, this year’s extension period could look different than usual.
Based on the uncertainty about how the NBA’s lost revenue will affect the league’s salary cap going forward, players might be more reluctant to lock themselves into long-term contracts a year before reaching restricted free agency. Conversely, a team considering offering a player a long-term extension this year will have to weigh how financially advantageous it will be to wait until 2021 to make that offer — doing so could allow the team to take advantage of its player’s modest RFA cap hold and maximize cap room that may be at a premium.
Still, it’s a safe bet that at least a handful of teams will pursue rookie scale extensions this offseason. Completing those deals early helps a team maintain a good relationship with the player and his agent, and provides that team with long-term cost certainty on one of its rising young stars.
In 2020, the players who most obviously fit that bill are Jayson Tatum (Celtics), Donovan Mitchell (Jazz), Bam Adebayo (Heat), and De’Aaron Fox (Kings). It seems likely that Boston, Utah, Miami, and Sacramento will be eager to sign those players to extensions worth the maximum salary or something very close to it.
While those four players are the most obvious extension candidates, there’s no shortage of others. John Collins (Hawks) leads the second tier, having expressed that he believes he’s max-worthy as well. Jonathan Isaac (Magic) and Lonzo Ball (Pelicans) won’t get the max, but they look like players their teams will want to build around. OG Anunoby (Raptors) and Derrick White (Spurs) are probably keepers too, though it’s possible Toronto and San Antonio will wait a year to let the RFA market set their prices.
After that, we start to get into some more challenging cases. Lauri Markkanen (Bulls), Kyle Kuzma (Lakers), and Zach Collins (Trail Blazers) could have cemented their cases for extensions this season, but Markkanen took a step back, Kuzma struggled to find his fit on the new-look Lakers, and Collins appeared in just three games before a shoulder injury derailed his season.
Luke Kennard (Pistons) would normally be a solid candidate for a new deal, but it’s not clear whether or not Detroit envisions him as a core piece or a potential trade candidate. The same goes for Jarrett Allen (Nets), who lost his starting center job before the NBA suspended its season.
We want to know what you think. Which of this year’s 24 extension-eligible players – perhaps including some of the ones we didn’t mention above – are the best bets for new deals this offseason? How do you think the NBA’s financial situation might impact those negotiations? Will we see fewer rookie scale extensions than usual or approximately the same amount?
Head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!
Not sure what dollar amounts we’re talking about here, esp for the first four.
First five really, since John Collins hit 40% on 3s. Atlanta looks set with young talent at the wings, Hunter Reddish & Huerter, but their PERs range from 8 to 11.
Jonathan Isaac, OG Anunoby, Jarrett Allen, , Zach Collins, and potentially Lonzo Ball make sense as extension guys, outside of the obvious
I’m wondering how Pat Riley and the Heat navigate this situation with Bam. Love Bam, hope he is a Heat lifer, but I usually wouldnt advocate for paying a big more than $14-16 million in today’s NBA, with the exception of very few guys. Bam has the potential to be on that list, but it’s still hard to say they should give him something in the near max range. He is arguably the most important part of this team, as it currently looks, so it’s not an easy situation. For team success, I wonder what the line is for the Heat and Bam.
For me, Anthony Davis, Joel Embiid, Rudy Gobert, and KAT are the only guys I have in that definitive list of bigs that should be paid in that near max-max range, and then there are like 3 or 4 other guys that i would say are borderline in that area underneath that, like Jokic, Marc Gasol (probably too old at this point), Horford (too old at this point though), Steven Adams, Myles Turner, and probably Porzingis if he plays the 5, and gets back to what he was before the injury
I feel like Bam could be in that first group, as he continues to improve, especially if his jumpshot keeps getting better, but he could be in that 2nd group, and most of those guys are probably overpaid, which is hurtful when trying to build a championship roster. It’s hard to allocate certain money to the 5 spot, in today’s NBA, especially when also considering still needing size to backup a guy like Bam and help defend the big 5s in the post for 8-12 minutes a game
I agree for the most part. However, Jokic is easily in the first tier and Turner is NOT better than Sabonis
I accidentally left out Sabonis. Turner hasnt been as good this year as he was last year, but has shown elite defensive ability and is an elite screener. I’m a big Sabonis fan, but I do question his ability to consistently defend, although he hasnt had issues there these last 2 years. I also feel like Turner still has a lot of upside left, even though he likely wont ever be as good offensively in the half court as Sabonis.
Jokic is borderline for me in the first and 2nd groups b/c he isnt consistent with his effort, but mostly isnt consistent with his aggressiveness. When he doesnt shy away, he is very skilled offensively, and has improved a lot defensively, and been very good with Milsap and Grant next to him at the 4, although I still question his ability to consistently defend on the perimeter, and he doesnt protect the rim. He is definitely right there, which is why he was the first name I used in that 2nd group. I just need to see more from him
Tatum Mitchell and Fox will all get the Max.
Bam will get something similar to Jaylen Brown, 4 years 100 mil (25mil a season)
Collins will get something similar to that, 4 years 90 mil (20mil a season, moving up)
Lonzo Ball will want a lot of money and think okay really well next year. Hopefully they can agree to something at about 80 mil over 4 years (20mil a season)
Then you have Markeneen (apparently he wants out), Zach Collins (has been injures abit), OG Anunoby (also been injured and missed a lot), Derrick White (is 25 and is he a starter or is it Murray), Kuzma (thinks a little to highly of himself and Lakers will want to be cheap).
I think Jonothan Issac is the Justice Winlsow of the group and signs his deal for less something like 3 years 45mil (15mil a year).
Adebayo keeps getting better, and Riley speaks highly of him, so a 14-16 offer may cut into good team attitude.
Jokic is certainly a max player! Comparitively, Embiid is streaky, Davis a 4, and Gobert & Towns are one-sided.
I’m just saying I think Bam definitely is more likely to justify the type of money they shouldnt have given to Whiteside, but I still dont think they should go that high. Something in the 4 year/$72-78 million range makes more sense to me, if you’re trying to build a championship roster. Honestly, for a big, I’m not necessarily sure if that’s even too high, as I said previously, but I do still think Bam is at least worth that objectively
I should say if Adebayo gets maxxed, that might anger people too! The Heat have it good with their approach, action without a lot of fouling, but attitude has to be maintained among players.
The Heat could lose Adebayo hoping for Giannis; or fall behind Orlando if they move Gordon wisely.
Collins was the best of the group this year, so he should be a lock.
Bam was the next one so a lock too.
JT was next, so he gets it as well.
Now Mitchell has been just his usual ok & Fox hasn’t had a good year at all, so I would be reluctant to go anywhere near the max for them both.
Markkanen & Zo I think they are better than what they have shown this year, so they could be a savvy investment for a smart team, that can see how good they are.
Mitchell’s usual ok is leading a playoff tee am to the playoffs, Fox who has also shown an ability to lead his team and climb the standings when playing will get really good deals.
Collins “was the best of this group” isn’t on the same level as Mitchell or Tatum.
I think he gets a really good deal but not max money.