When we asked Hoops Rumors readers last fall whether the Cavaliers would win over or under 26.5 games in 2021/22, responses leaned ever so slightly toward the under, and the consensus was that Cleveland was on its way to another lottery finish. So when the Cavs won their 27th game on January 17, their season already had to be considered a major success.
Unfortunately, injuries caught up to Cleveland following a 35-21 start and the team finished just 9-17, falling out of a top-six spot in the East and into play-in territory. The banged-up Cavs then lost a pair of play-in games – one in Brooklyn and one at home vs. Atlanta – and missed out on the opportunity to compete in a postseason series.
It was a disappointing finish to the year, since getting some best-of-seven playoff experience against a team like the Heat or Bucks would have been a huge step for young players like Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen. But the organization still had to be thrilled by what it saw from its roster this past year.
After going 60-159 in the three seasons following LeBron James‘ departure, the ’21/22 Cavs finished above .500 (44-38), showing the resilience to fight through a series of injuries to key contributors, including Collin Sexton, Ricky Rubio, Mobley, and Allen. And given how young most of Cleveland’s core players still are, there’s no reason to think this group has reached its ceiling.
The Cavaliers’ Offseason Plan:
The nine players who logged the most total minutes for the Cavaliers in 2021/22 are all under contract for at least one more season, as is midseason addition Caris LeVert, so the roster shouldn’t undergo any significant changes this summer. However, there are still a handful of important decisions to make.
Determining how to handle Sexton’s restricted free agency will be one of the front office’s top priorities. The former lottery pick emerged as one of the NBA’s most dangerous backcourt scorers from 2019-21, averaging 22.5 PPG on .474/.376/.828 shooting across those two years. But he suffered a torn meniscus just 11 games into his fourth season and wasn’t a factor in the Cavs’ unexpected success.
As good a scorer as Sexton is, his contributions on the other end of the court are limited, and his lost season will likely reduce his leverage in contract negotiations. With so few teams possessing cap room this offseason, the Cavs are in position to play hardball in their discussions with Sexton, especially if none of those cap-room teams have serious interest in him. A deal worth at least $20-25MM annually seemed within reach for the 6’1″ guard a year ago, but now he’d be doing well to get $15-17MM per season.
The presence of LeVert should provide the Cavs with additional leverage in their talks with Sexton. LeVert wasn’t at his best after joining the Cavs, averaging a modest 13.6 PPG in 19 games, but he’s just one year removed from a 20+ PPG season, and his size makes him a more natural fit next to Garland in Cleveland’s backcourt.
LeVert will be extension-eligible this offseason, so the Cavs should be able to get a sense of what sort of deals both he and Sexton are seeking before investing long-term in one or the other — or both.
Like LeVert, Garland and Kevin Love will be eligible for contract extensions this summer. Talks with Garland should be reasonably straightforward, as he has earned a maximum-salary offer following an All-Star campaign. It should just be a matter of whether or not he gets the full five years.
Love is less likely to receive a new deal in the coming months, since his $28.9MM expiring contract could be useful in trade talks during the offseason or at the 2023 deadline. But if he’s willing to take a significant pay cut, Cleveland would likely entertain the idea of an extension for Love, who had a nice bounce-back year in 2021/22 and was the Sixth Man of the Year runner-up.
As a result of missing out on the playoffs, the Cavs retained their first-round pick, which would have gone to Indiana if it had landed outside of the lottery. That No. 14 overall selection probably won’t yield a star, but it’s an intriguing asset as Cleveland looks to add more shooting and defense on the wing.
Ohio State’s Malaki Branham, Kansas’ Ochai Agbaji, Baylor’s Jeremy Sochan, and LSU’s Tari Eason all make sense as potential targets if the Cavs keep the pick. It could also be dangled in trade talks if Cleveland wants to acquire a veteran who is a better bet to contribute immediately.
Salary Cap Situation
Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.
Guaranteed Salary
- Kevin Love ($28,942,830)
- Jarrett Allen ($20,000,000)
- Caris LeVert ($18,796,296)
- Lauri Markkanen ($16,475,454)
- Darius Garland ($8,920,795)
- Evan Mobley ($8,478,720)
- Cedi Osman ($7,426,088)
- Isaac Okoro ($7,040,880)
- Dylan Windler ($4,037,278)
- Total: $120,118,341
Player Options
- None
Team Options
- Dean Wade ($1,930,681): Bird rights 1
- Total: $1,930,681
Non-Guaranteed Salary
- Lamar Stevens ($1,782,621)
- Total: $1,782,621
Restricted Free Agents
Collin Sexton ($7,228,448 qualifying offer / $19,049,013 cap hold): Bird rights- Moses Brown ($2,076,674 qualifying offer / $2,076,674 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
- Total (cap holds): $21,125,687
Two-Way Free Agents
- Brandon Goodwin ($1,941,833 qualifying offer / $1,941,833 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
- RJ Nembhard ($1,616,044 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
- Total (cap holds): $3,557,877
Draft Picks
- No. 14 overall pick ($3,865,920)
- No. 39 overall pick (no cap hold)
- No. 56 overall pick (no cap hold)
- Total: $3,865,920
Extension-Eligible Players
Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.
- Darius Garland (rookie scale)
- Caris LeVert (veteran)
- Kevin Love (veteran)
- Dean Wade (veteran) 2
- Dylan Windler (rookie scale)
Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds
- Ed Davis ($1,811,516 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
- Rajon Rondo ($1,811,516 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
- Matthew Dellavedova ($1,811,516 cap hold): Bird rights 3
- Total: $5,434,548
Offseason Cap Outlook
With $120MM+ in guaranteed money on their books, plus Wade, Stevens, and a first-round pick to account for, the Cavs will almost certainly be over the projected $122MM cap.
Whether or not they approach the tax line will hinge largely on whether Sexton is back and how big his first-year salary is. Even with a new deal for Sexton on the books, Cleveland shouldn’t be a taxpayer next season.
Cap Exceptions Available
- Mid-level exception: $10,349,000 4
- Bi-annual exception: $4,050,000 4
- Trade exception: $858,218
- Trade exception: $300,000
Footnotes
- Wade’s salary will remain non-guaranteed even if his option is exercised.
- Wade would only be eligible if his option is exercised.
- The cap hold for Dellavedova remain on the Cavaliers’ books from a prior season because he hasn’t been renounced. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
- These are projected values. If the Cavaliers approach or cross the tax line, they may not have access to the full mid-level exception and/or bi-annual exception and would instead be limited to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($6,392,000).
Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.
A guy can dream, but I’d love if my Cavs were somehow able to get Dyson Daniels, Ochai Agbaji, Jeremy Sochan, or Tari Eason at 14. Also Dalen Terry would be great at 39, and I’d love if Yannick Nzosa was there at 58 to stash
Yeah Daniels would be perfect. Would solve back up pg problems and fix future wing issues. I dont think he will make it to 14.
I personally think that anyone who feels the Cavs have enough scoring talent to trade Sexton for pieces is a fool. I love Garland but he’s prone to having back injuries which usually take 4 games to recover from. One bad landing could mean more. Honestly, I think Sexton is a little better at scoring than Garland but regardless they are the two best at scoring on their own, breaking down a defense and improvising. Neither is tall and neither plays good defense but with 3 7 footers in the lineup they can focus on just trying to stay in front of their opponents. They’ve had 4 or 5 different coaches in a 4 year span. Hopefully JB and the coaches can help their defensive diffenciencies. The wild card?. Rich Paul since he is the agent for both Sexton and Garland. But I would loooove to see what a healthy and hungry Sexland and the 3 giants could do. Bring back Rubio if possible. Levert is interesting and is an Ohio native and relative to Cleveland’s own Eddie and Gerald Levert but I wouldn’t choose him over Sexton and he’s due 1/$18 mil. I think he makes for a good trade chip this summer. I don’t know much about this year’s draft class beyond the top 10 but the pick could be interesting if they use it or choose to trade him.
I think it was Zach Lowe that said no one has had a more disrespected 24ppg scoring season on above avg efficiency than Collin Sexton, and I agree.
I understand the hesitation on CLE’s part if CS is seeking a near max extension but w/ his injury that’s almost certainly off the table
But I think Sexton is worth Brunson money if they can get him for that – what they were looking LeVert to add to this roster post-TD last season Sexton can add and then some.
While it’s not ideal having SexLand as a backcourt defensively, if any team can get away with it it’s a team with Mobley and Allen in the FC
Sexton is one of my favorite players but there are real issues with his game and rightfully asked questions about his value.
The issue is that there is no form of advanced overall metrics that measure impact that would have Sexton as more than a neutral player.
His %s and scoring look great on paper but he is quintessentially the “empty stats guy”. There are hidden potholes in his numbers. Like high TO rate and his % of getting blocked is astronomical. At one point he was getting blocked on 16% of his attempts. His defense his first 3 years was at historical lows. He put up 3 of the worse 20 defensive years by any players over the last decade prior to this abbreviated season. Like of all guys in the NBA playing starter volume minutes, he accomplish 3 of the worse 20 years out of maybe 500 eligible guys.
Defense
In Defensive RAPTOR between 2013 and 2021 seasons there were 793 entries of guys playing 2100 minutes. Colin Sexton finished 793, 792 and 767 defensively. This would technically label him and Trae Young as possibly the worse defenders of their entire generation. Trae Young is right there with him on average. So they aren’t just bad for small guards that are literally the worse defenders in the entire National League Basketball Association.
All that being said, Colin Sexton is great at improving. Looked better on defense in last years small 11 game sample. He’s young and has a top tier work ethic.
I’d push back against the empty stats narrative. In 20-21, Sexton put up 24.3 ppg in 35 mpg w/ 29.7% usage and .573 TS% and 2:1 AST:TO% – which is far from empty to me.
His TO% was higher this season in a small sample, but only 11% in his last full season, which was on par with LaVine and Tatum this year. Not outstanding but not terrible. He’s be somewhere between 85-95th *worst* offender in TO% this year if he posted 11% again.
Basically the argument against Sexton is on defense, and I don’t disagree there at all. He’s a net negative on that end, and the comparison to Trae is apt. His DBPM from 20-21 was bad, but it was also pre-Allen and Mobley.
I think it’s plausible that playing w/ Mobley & Allen could get his defense to, IDK, like Tyler Herro level bad?
I think offensively he’s arguably already better than Herro (or at least on par), so if he can get to Herro’s level on the other side of the ball I think you have a really valuable (if not quite All Star) player.
But overall as a player because the game is played 50% on offense and 50% on defense, Sexton just doesn’t rate well.
It doesn’t matter what you use. A keen eye test, LEBRON, RAPTOR, DARKO, Wins Above Replacement, whatever it never adds up that Sexton is that good even on offense. Hes good just not that good. And all have him complete trash on defense.
Why does his offensive advanced metrics of impact also suck?
It’s because he gets transition buckets and is a timely cutter. This makes it seem like he shoots well or smart in the half court from a %.
Thought exercise…
If a guy shoots 48% from field goals as all long 2s. At this level a guy could shoot 100 shots and score 96 points in those 100 shots.
If a guy shoots 37% from 3 and shoots no long 2s but jacks up 100 3s he scores 111 points in those same 100 shots.
Sexton isn’t a high volume 3 point shooter even though he is a capable shooter. There are reasons why his advanced stuff doesn’t seem on par with his counting stats. A lot of it has to do with BBIQ and he makes up for it with effort but obviously hasn’t turned the corner yet.
The 50/50 offense/defense split is a tiny bit presumptuous. A high level creator on offense is more valuable than a high level one on one defender — otherwise Tony Allen would have been a max player.
Thought exercise: how many players averaged >24 ppg but also >.550 TS this season?
Spoiler: Jokic, LeBron, Durant, Towns, Giannis, Trae, Steph, Tatum, Luka, Mitchell, Ja, Booker
So you’re saying a guy who’s in that club (when healthy) isn’t a major plus offensively? To be clear, in no way am I saying Sexton is anywhere that TIER of player – but clearly his ability to score with both volume and efficiency is notable.
Contrast Herro this year – 16 PER and .56 TS both lower than Sexton, AST% lower TO% higher, with a lower USG% to boot. Advanced stats would seem to tell me Sexton is the superior player on offense.
Finally, if a guy scores in transition or off cuts that’s just as valuable as isolation (if not more so), so I don’t see that as a knock against him.
No it’s not. He’s also not a high level creator.
Look at all of those guys metrics on offense. All of them outside Sexton are in another stratosphere.
No it’s not to what?
Sexton (as I stated) is clearly not on their level. Yet he put up a season that in terms of volume and efficiency was in league with some of the best scorers in the game.
What exactly is the argument against that? His VORP isn’t on par? Duly noted, but just because he’s not Luka doesn’t mean he’s not a very valuable offensive player.
If you don’t agree to that at least then I guess we’ll have to agree to disagree here
Literally no advanced stat has him as good on offense. All have him right amount replacement level.
20-21 Sexton
+1.8 OBPM would be top 45 in L this year
18 PER would be top 50 in L this year
W/ ~300 guys in the L being top 50 puts him well within top 20%, but sure no advanced stats say he’s above replacement….
@QB1
Feel how you want to. The nba will pay much more money to an archive average scorer than a defense first player. I don’t think you’ll have many debate that.
also, in 20-21, Irving, Brogdon, Middleton, Curry, Rozier, Lillard, Beal, Lavine….. three only guards to score at least 20 points on equal or greater than 45%/38%/83% shooting. No idea why there’s so much disrespect for this kid. is he the first guard not to play great defense?
Except all of them also have advanced stats that say there great on offense and Sexton advanced and eye test to me says otherwise.
Still a great young talent that ever improving.
I’m for giving him 18 million per season. I just see the promise without also being blind to the warts.
On/off he just isn’t that important. Every known external source of advanced values he is lacking even on offense.
@QB1
Now you’re just not being honest. He’s a legit 3 tier scorer. For his career:
0-3 feet = 29%
3-10 feet = 20%
10-16 feet = 15%
16-3pt feet = 12%
3pt = 24%
That’s a pretty balanced attack. He’s a legit 3 tier shooter. He can attack the rim for layups and dunks, shoot the floater over bigs, hit the pullup, he’s great at creating space by using his body, he can draw fouls (although he doesn’t get the star level treatment yet). He can shoot the 3 at a high level (38%) and sink FTs (83%). He can also do that without an assist.
@QB1
Now you’re just not being honest. He’s a legit 3 tier scorer. For his career:
0-3 feet = 29%
3-10 feet = 20%
10-16 feet = 15%
16-3pt feet = 12%
3pt = 24%
That’s a pretty balanced attack. He’s a legit 3 tier shooter. He can attack the rim for layups and dunks, shoot the floater over bigs, hit the pullup, he’s great at creating space by using his body, he can draw fouls (although he doesn’t get the star level treatment yet). He can shoot the 3 at a high level (38%) and sink FTs (83%). He can also do that without an assist
@QB1
I think you use three stats poorly or without context.
High TO Rate: using 2020-21
What stars were in the top 10 least TO%? CJ McCollum, Carmelo Anthony and Porzingus
Who were among the highest? Sexton was tied with Lillard at 11.6% with such guards as Curry@ 12.2, Booker @ 12.4, CP @ 14, LBJ, Doncic, Morant @ 15, Garland and Trae Young @ 16, Harden @ 17, Westbrook @ 18 and surprisingly, Draymond dead last at 31. Now most of those guys usage rates are high because their depended on to score or facilitate but so is a Sextons UR is lower although he did facilitate some of the Cavs offense in 20-21 with 4.4 apg.
As for the 16% of his attempts being blocked im not sure where that came from. On nba.com I found that in 20-21 he had 1.6 fga blocked (blka) per game. But a blocked shot is considered a mixed FG and that number is baked into FG% so it doesn’t bother me. FG% may not tell you degree of difficulty but it’s not an “empty ” stat. Breaking down HOW those missed field goals happen might be useful but Sexton’s numbers don’t scare me. Kyrie’s low/ high is .8 to 1. Curry’s is .6 to .9. Morant is 1.1 to 1.7. Trae Young is 1.0 to 1.7.
Defensive stats is another story but his offensive stats are still allstar caliber.
So what’s missing with Sexton? His stats don’t add up to impact even on offense.
The best all-in advanced stat is probably OBPM where Sexton was +1.8 which he did at 22 years old w/ basically no roster help.
Please explain how this doesn’t count as an on/off advanced stat?
Players who posted 1.7-1.9 OBPM this season: Bam, Miles Bridges, Simons, Middleton, Jaylen Brown — are we now saying those players are poor offensive players via OBPM?
If not, ipso facto there are all in advanced stats that suggest Sexton is a valuable offensive player.
I would move okoro to SG to start while Collin comes back. I would try to find a young SF to develop with their young starting lineup. Garland, Okoro, ? , Mobley,Allen. Sexton,Love and Cedi is a nice bench. Find a young SF somewhere
Or trade Lavert and Lauri for a decent young SF. Or draft one. Also go sign Rubio back
Starting 5
DG, Okoro, Lauri Markkanan and Jarrett Allen
This line up played the most minutes together of any 5 man line up last year for the Cavs at 225. Next most used line up subbed Wade for Lauri M and was net 22 for 108 minutes. Wade is an underated defender and ball mover.
Rating Off: 115.3 Def: 103.7 Net 11.6
The bench would be
Levert, Sexton, Wade, K Love, either Mobley or Allen, plus 14th (imo, Branham or Eason, if n/a then trade pick)
That’s a nine man rotation when healthy and still one of the best bench units in the League.
Plus starters with a plus bench equals sucess.
There is the possibility of signing Sexton while still staying under the tax. It’s a lot harder than the OP makes it seem. With 14, Wade and Stevens resigned the Cavs would then have 127 spent while still potentially Sexton and 2 more roster spots to fill.
So 127 million with a 149 million dollar luxury tax threshold.
Sexton and 2 spots need to stay sub 22 million. Easy answer is Sexton starting off at 18 and Moses Brown resigned at 2 million. The issue is this only leaves 2 million left for unforseen circumstances. Or use the 39th pick or preferably the 57th pick on Isiah Mobley, for obvious reasons. Being that pressed up against the tax line has all types of disadvantages and injures organizations leverage in potential trades.
Solution: Cedi Osman makes 7.4 million with his next year salary decreasing slightly amd being unguaranteed. Trade his salary for an exemption by using 2nd round pick 39 or a swap of late 2nds.
Dylan Windler makes 4 million guaranteed and can be traded for cash considerations of 5 million. Thus paying in non-cap cash over the balance of his salary. Possibly include 57th pick or future 2nd.
Those moves clear up 11 million and now the Cavs still have access to the full MLE and stay below the tax.
Use MLE on Derrick Jones Jr 5 million and Aaron Holiday 5 million or Rubio as a late arrival for 5 million.
The Cavs could sign Sexton with completely unreachable incentives in his first year but extremely easily reachable incentives for the remaining years of his deal. Basically making his first year salary 15 but other years higher.
OKC: Cedi, Windler (11), 39th, 57th, cash considerations 5 million
3rd Team: Favors (11)
CLE: Pure Space, top 59 protected 2nd.
QB1 I like your stat usage, and keeping Wade but not necessarily Windler or Osman, and drafting the other Mobley late. Prefer Aaron Holiday & Rubio to Derrick Jones… I doubt Jones happens.
For trading, Ilike backups Nowell, McLaughlin & Reid from Wolves, or Shake Milton, Bassey, Danny Young& Paul Reed from the Sixers. Tobias Harris could play the 3 officially.
For cheap UFAs: Davon Reed, Kelan Martin, Svi Mikaluk & Davonte Cacok.
UFAs for a step up: Ricky Rubio, Kyle Anderson, Frank Kaminski, & Jalen Smith. RFAs: Aaron Holiday, Amir Coffee, Vlako Cancar, Juan Toscano, Mo Bamba, and both Martins.
Moses Brown did okay. Make Nets bid to $10m to keep Claxton. And either Martin— bid up CHA or MIA.
I got greedy with this list, some will take a medium amount of salary.
I would not go over $15m for Sexton.
$5m & starting for Cory joseph, esp if DET bids up Sexton. They have a breakable team option on Frank Jackson too. $10m can get PJ Tucker, Bobby Portis or Jamichael Green, player optioners, although their teams can match. How serious are they, or HOU with Tate.
The draft looks good at #14. Ohio State offers Malaki Branham & EJ Liddell, who keeps rising and will be gone for the second round. If David Roddy is going to last, jump on him.
I planned a short list ha.
@x%sure
The disrespect towards Sexton….. whew.
Bad luck… It became a bad fit… You know the story. Cavs had options when they drafted Sexton (i.e., SGA, the Bridges), but Sexton was popular with the ownwer and Lebron, for good reason. But the next year they had to take Garland, the clear next best at their slot, and a more popular duplicate.
Sexton should see a good market eval; Cavs gave him a good chance since early.
I’d sign Jalen Smith and turn him into Bobby Portis.
I’ll be interested to see what Cleveland does this offseason and how easily they’ll be able to replicate what they did last season pre-injuries.
The East probably isn’t getting any easier – Boston, Miami, and Milwaukee will be back. There are some uncertainties in Chicago, Brooklyn, and Philly for sure, but all three have major incentives to continue to (try to) contend.
Then you have Toronto, which figures to be a problem with a more seasoned Barnes and healthy Pascal, and Atlanta and Charlotte with dynamic offenses that will be looking to upgrade this summer.
That’s 9 teams that have a real chance at being top 6 teams next year. And I’d add Detroit as a dark horse just because I think Cade is that good.
With that said, if Mobley comes back with an improved offense and Sexton can give them minutes either as a 6th man of starting 2, then I give Cleveland as much of a chance as anyone at being amongst the best teams in the East next year.
Only another bad spate of injuries to key players, will prevent these CAVS from making the playoffs next season.