With just five weeks left in the NBA’s regular season, we have a pretty good general sense of what the final standings will look like in 2024/25. While seeding in both the playoff race and the lottery standings remains up for grabs, there’s more clarity on which 2025 first-round picks traded with protections will actually change hands and which ones will fall within their protected range.
We’re checking in today on those picks, taking a closer look at which traded first-rounders will roll over to 2026, which ones will be conveyed, and which ones are still up in the air.
Let’s jump right in…
Traded 2025 first-round picks that will be protected:
- Wizards‘ pick traded to Knicks (top-10 protected).
- Jazz‘s pick traded to Thunder (top-10 protected).
- Hornets‘ pick traded to Kings (top-14 protected).
We’ll start with three of the most straightforward picks of the bunch. The Wizards (13-49), Jazz (15-48), and Hornets (15-48) currently own the three worst records in the NBA, which means there’s no chance of their traded first-round picks conveying this year.
If either the Wizards or the Jazz went on a hot streak in the season’s final weeks and finished as low as seventh in the lottery standings, there would be an ever-so-slight chance of that team’s pick falling outside of the top 10. But the odds of that happening are so minuscule that it’s not really worth discussing. There’s a very good chance that these three teams will all be picking in the top half of the lottery in June.
After they keep their first-rounders for 2025, the Wizards will instead owe their top-eight protected 2026 pick to the Knicks, the Jazz will owe their top-eight protected 2026 pick to the Thunder, and the Hornets will instead fulfill their obligation to the Kings by sending their 2026 and 2027 second-round picks.
Traded 2025 first-round picks unlikely to change hands:
- Trail Blazers‘ pick traded to Bulls (top-14 protected).
The Trail Blazers are four games behind No. 10 Dallas in the Western Conference standings, and with the injury-plagued Mavericks at risk of sinking like a stone, we can’t safely rule Portland out of the play-in race quite yet.
But the Blazers are a long shot for that spot, and likely wouldn’t win back-to-back play-in games on the road to make the playoffs even if they did come away with the No. 10 seed. So it seems pretty safe to assume Portland will hang onto its own first-round pick, even if we can’t guaranteed it quite yet.
Assuming the Blazers retain their first-rounder, they’ll instead owe their top-14 protected 2026 pick to the Bulls.
Traded 2025 first-round picks that will change hands:
- Suns‘ pick traded to Nets or Rockets (unprotected).
- Hawks‘ pick traded to Spurs (unprotected).
- Timberwolves‘ pick traded to Jazz (most/least favorable; unprotected).
- Bucks‘ pick traded to Nets (top-four protected) or Pelicans (5-30 protected).
- Knicks‘ pick traded to Nets (unprotected).
- Lakers‘ pick traded to Hawks (unprotected).
- Nuggets‘ pick traded to Magic (top-five protected).
- Cavaliers‘ pick traded to Suns (most/least favorable; unprotected).
Seven of these eight picks are unprotected and the eighth – the Nuggets’ first-rounder – has such light protection that there’s no chance it won’t change hands. Still, there are a few conditions worth noting.
The Suns’ first-rounder, for instance, will technically be sent to Brooklyn, but the Rockets will have the ability to swap their own first-round selection for that pick and will almost certainly do so, since they’re currently ahead of Phoenix in the standings by 9.5 games. In that scenario, Houston will end up with Phoenix’s pick (currently projected to be No. 12, per Tankathon) and the Nets would get the Rockets’ pick (No. 23 right now).
The Jazz will receive the more favorable of the Timberwolves’ and Cavaliers’ first-round picks, while the Suns receive the least favorable of the two. That means the Minnesota first-rounder (currently No. 19) will go to Utah and the Cleveland first-rounder (No. 30) will go to Phoenix, since the Cavs are currently 18 games ahead of the Wolves in the standings.
The Bucks’ pick, meanwhile, will go to Brooklyn if it lands between 5-30 or to New Orleans if it ends up in the top four. Milwaukee should comfortably earn a playoff spot in the East, so there’s essentially no scenario where the Pelicans end up with that pick, which projects to be No. 22 as of today. The Bucks will convey that pick to the Nets and their obligation to New Orleans will be extinguished.
The other picks are relatively straightforward. The Hawks’ pick headed to the Spurs figures to end up at No. 15 or 16 if Atlanta makes the playoffs or in the 10-12 range if they don’t. Of course, there’s always a chance it could move into the top four if the Hawks are in the lottery, which is a scenario San Antonio will be rooting for.
The Knicks’ pick going to Brooklyn, the Lakers’ pick going to Atlanta, and the Nuggets’ pick going to Orlando currently project to be 25th, 26th, and 27th overall, respectively.
Traded 2025 first-round picks likely to change hands:
- Kings‘ pick traded to Hawks (top-12 protected).
- Pistons‘ pick traded to Timberwolves (top-13 protected).
- Clippers‘ pick traded to Thunder via swap rights (unprotected).
- Warriors‘ pick traded to Heat (top-10 protected).
- Grizzlies‘ pick traded to Wizards (top-14 protected).
- Thunder‘s pick traded to Clippers via swap rights (unprotected).
The Kings aren’t a lock to make the playoffs, but they increasingly look like a pretty safe bet to at least qualify for the play-in tournament. In that scenario, they’d either clinch a playoff berth or end up at No. 13 or No. 14 in the lottery standings, meaning the only outcome that would prevent the Hawks from receiving their pick would be if the pick jumps into the top four on lottery day — the odds of that happening would be extremely slim.
The Pistons haven’t clinched a playoff berth yet, but they have a five-game lead on the No. 7 Hawks for a top-six seed, so it’s a pretty safe bet their first-round pick will be sent to the Timberwolves, finally freeing Detroit of that obligation — that first-rounder has landed in its protected range three years in a row.
The Thunder technically have the ability to swap their own first-round pick for either the Rockets’ or the Clippers’ first-rounder. Houston has a 4.5-game lead in the standings on L.A., so Oklahoma City is more likely to use that swap on the Clippers’ pick (as of today, that would mean moving up from No. 29 to No. 17), but it’s not set in stone yet.
If the Clippers pass the Rockets in the standings, it would actually be bad news for Brooklyn, since after the Thunder swap with Houston, the Rockets could use their swap rights (outlined in the section above) to send OKC’s pick to Brooklyn for the Suns’ first-rounder.
Finally, there’s still a non-zero possibility that the Warriors and/or Grizzlies drop into play-in territory and miss the playoffs, so we can’t say with certainty yet that the Heat and Wizards will receive those first-rounders. But both picks are likely to convey, and Miami is in especially good shape to get Golden State’s selection even if the Dubs end up in the lottery — the pick would have to jump into the top four in that scenario for the Warriors to keep it.
Traded 2025 first-round picks still very much up in the air:
- Sixers‘ pick traded to Thunder (top-six protected).
- Heat‘s pick traded to Thunder (top-14 protected).
These are the two picks whose odds of conveying remain closest to 50/50.
As of today, the Sixers have the NBA’s seventh-worst record, which would mean they’d have a 31.9% chance of hanging onto their pick. But they’re only a half-game ahead of Brooklyn in the standings and one game ahead of Toronto. If the 76ers finish with the sixth-worst record, their odds of keeping their pick would increase to 45.8%. With the fifth-worst record, that number would jump to 63.9%. So this one will come down to lottery night.
If Philadelphia’s pick lands in its protected range, the club would instead owe its top-four protected 2026 first-rounder to Oklahoma City.
As for the Heat, they remain firmly in the mix of an uninspiring play-in race in the East, with a 29-34 record that’s good for the No. 9 seed. If they’re able to earn a playoff spot via the play-in tournament, they’d send their pick to the Thunder. If not, they’ll keep it and would owe their unprotected 2026 first-rounder to OKC.