2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks breathed a collective sigh of relief during the 2020 offseason when Giannis Antetokounmpo signed a five-year, super-max extension to remain in Milwaukee. That commitment from Antetokounmpo gave the club some leeway to operate without having to worry that a trade request from the two-time MVP might be imminent.
Still, it’s not as if Giannis’ new deal lifted all the pressure on the franchise. The Bucks were coming off back-to-back postseason disappointments, having blown a 2-0 lead in the Eastern Conference Finals in 2019 and then losing to the underdog Heat in the 2020 Eastern Semifinals.
Milwaukee was also facing scrutiny for its 2020 offseason moves — the team gave up a ton of draft assets for a player (Jrue Holiday) who had made one All-Star team in 2013 and had never earned an All-NBA spot. And a failed attempt to acquire Bogdan Bogdanovic via sign-and-trade cost the club a future second-round pick for tampering and created the impression that the Bucks didn’t maximize their opportunities to improve the roster.
The fact that the Bucks faced so many questions entering the 2020/21 season makes it all the more impressive that – eight months later – they’ve answered each and every one of them. Before his extension even began, Antetokounmpo led the organization to its first championship in 50 years.
Holiday played a key role in the team’s title run, Bogdanovic’s new team (Atlanta) was no match for Milwaukee in the Eastern Finals, and Mike Budenholzer – who was on the hot seat following the team’s last two playoff letdowns – now appears in line for a contract extension rather than a pink slip.
It’s a good time to be a Bucks fan.
The Bucks’ Offseason Plan:
With Antetokunmpo, Holiday, and Khris Middleton on the books for a combined $106MM+ next season, the Bucks will start the offseason over the cap — and likely in tax territory, once guaranteed salaries for Brook Lopez, Pat Connaughton, Donte DiVincenzo, and others are taken into account.
That will make it difficult for the Bucks to retain free agents like Bobby Portis and Bryn Forbes. Milwaukee has both players’ Non-Bird rights, but the Non-Bird exception only gives the team the ability to offer a 20% raise, which would result in a starting salary of about $4.3MM for Portis and $2.8MM for Forbes. They can likely do better on the open market, so if they hope to retain one or both, the Bucks will either have to dip into the mid-level exception or hope they’re willing to accept a discount.
P.J. Tucker‘s Bird rights will allow the Bucks to re-sign him without any cap limitations. A new deal for Tucker would increase Milwaukee’s projected tax bill, but team ownership should be more willing to take on those penalties after a championship season, and Tucker, who is 36, shouldn’t require a long-term investment.
Further upgrades to the roster will be a challenge. If the Bucks are prepared to use it, the taxpayer mid-level exception (worth about $5.9MM) could be used to land a rotation player, though tax penalties would exponentially increase the cost of using that exception. Jeff Green has been cited as one possible target if Portis departs.
It’s possible Milwaukee could get a bargain or two if there are veterans willing to sign for the minimum to chase a ring, and the No. 31 pick will be a useful tool for adding a low-cost player capable of contributing immediately. The Bucks may preserve a portion of their mid-level exception to ensure they can give their second-round pick a deal exceeding two years — dedicating a roster spot to an inexpensive rookie contract for the next three years will help keep team salary in check.
The Bucks will also have to decide soon whether DiVincenzo will be part of the team’s long-term future. He’s eligible for an extension this offseason and could be a useful trade chip if Milwaukee isn’t comfortable giving him a sizable raise. DiVincenzo is a solid player with room to continue improving, but the team was willing to include him in last year’s aborted Bogdanovic sign-and-trade and won a title while he was sidelined with an ankle injury, so it’s not as if he’s indispensable.
If the Bucks had fallen short in the playoffs this season, I wouldn’t have been surprised to see Lopez’s name pop up in trade rumors this offseason, since he has the largest contract outside of the club’s “big three.” That’s still a possibility, but Lopez played big minutes during Milwaukee’s title run and didn’t get run off the court like some centers have in the postseason. He’s still a useful piece for the Bucks, who would probably only move him if they could get a better player — not just to get off his salary.
Salary Cap Situation
Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.
Guaranteed Salary
- Giannis Antetokounmpo ($39,344,970) 1
- Khris Middleton ($35,500,000)
- Jrue Holiday ($31,171,333)
- Brook Lopez ($13,302,325)
- Pat Connaughton ($5,333,334)
- Donte DiVincenzo ($4,675,830)
- Jon Leuer ($3,169,347) — Waived via stretch provision.
- Larry Sanders ($1,865,547) — Waived via stretch provision.
- Jordan Nwora ($1,517,981)
- Sam Merrill ($500,000) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below. 2
- Mamadi Diakite ($100,000) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below.
- Total: $136,480,667
Player Options
Bobby Portis ($3,804,150): Non-Bird rights- Total: $3,804,150
Team Options
- None
Non-Guaranteed Salary
- Elijah Bryant ($1,517,981)
- Mamadi Diakite ($1,417,981)
- Sam Merrill ($1,017,981) 2
- Total: $3,953,943
Restricted Free Agents
- Thanasis Antetokounmpo ($2,126,991 qualifying offer / $2,126,991 cap hold): Early Bird rights
- Total (cap holds): $2,126,991
Two-Way Free Agents
Draft Picks
- No. 31 overall pick (no cap hold)
Extension-Eligible Players
- Donte DiVincenzo (rookie scale)
- Brook Lopez (veteran)
Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds
- P.J. Tucker ($15,142,120): Bird rights
- Bryn Forbes ($2,804,574): Non-Bird rights 4
- Jeff Teague ($1,669,178): Non-Bird rights
- Total: $19,615,872
Offseason Cap Outlook
The Bucks’ team salary barely sneaked across the tax line in 2020/21. In 2021/22, the club will likely blow past that threshold.
Milwaukee is already essentially at the tax line with only seven players on fully guaranteed contracts, so even filling out the roster with minimum-salary players would push team salary into the tax by about $10MM. Barring a major cost-cutting move, the Bucks will be limited to the taxpayer mid-level exception.
Cap Exceptions Available
- Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,890,000 5
- Trade exception: $4,886,515
- Trade exception: $1,620,564
Footnotes
- This is a projected value. Antetokounmpo’s salary will be 35% of the 2021/22 salary cap.
- Merrill’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 8.
- Because he’ll have four years of NBA service, Jackson is ineligible to sign another two-way contract.
- Forbes is declining his player option for 2021/22.
- This is a projected value. If the Bucks stay below the tax apron, they could have access to the full mid-level exception ($9.5MM).
Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders, RealGM, and ESPN was used in the creation of this post.
D’Antoni Stepping Away From Role With Nets, Not Retiring
Nets assistant Mike D’Antoni is stepping away from his full-time role as a member of Steve Nash‘s staff in Brooklyn, reports ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski (via Twitter).
Wojnarowski’s use of the term “full-time” leaves the door open to the possibility that D’Antoni will still act as a consultant for Brooklyn or another team on a part-time basis. It’s unclear whether or not that’s in the cards, but Woj says that D’Antoni isn’t retiring and is expected to pursue NBA head coaching jobs again in the future.
D’Antoni sought a head coaching position this offseason and was a finalist for the Trail Blazers’ job, which eventually went to Chauncey Billups. A report in early June suggested D’Antoni had also received interest from Boston and Orlando, though there was no indication he was a serious contender for either job.
D’Antoni, whose most recent head coaching gig was with the Rockets up until 2020, has coached five different NBA teams and ranks 21st on the league’s all-time list with 672 regular season wins. However, at age 70, he may be running out of time to get another shot. Only two head coaches in NBA history – including current Spurs coach Gregg Popovich – have remained on the sidelines into their 70s, according to HoopsHype.
Draft Notes: Garuba, Butler, Pacers, Pistons, Kispert
Usman Garuba is generating buzz a potential mid first-round pick, but the terms of the Spaniard’s contract with Real Madrid represent an obstacle in getting him stateside for the 2021/22 season. According to Donatas Urbonas of BasketNews.com, Garuba’s NBA buyout clause with the Spanish club is worth three million Euros.
An NBA team can contribute to a player’s buyout with his international team, but only up to $775K (about €655K). That means that if Garuba wants to make the leap to the NBA right away, most of the buyout would have to come out of his own pocket. To make matters worse for the 19-year-old, the amount of that buyout increases by one million Euros every year until 2024, per Urbonas. Garuba’s contract with Real Madrid runs through 2025.
As John Hollinger of The Athletic observes (via Twitter), Garuba’s buyout is “insanely large” relative to other international contracts, but it may well be negotiated down to something more reasonable when the time comes for the big man to make the move to the NBA — which could happen in the coming weeks.
Here are a few more draft-related updates:
- Jonathan Wasserman of Bleacher Report and Jeremy Woo of SI.com have released the final versions of their respective big boards for the 2021 draft. The two draft experts have also put out updated versions of their mock drafts at Bleacher Report and SI.com.
- Among the noteworthy items in Woo’s mock draft: Some teams have concerns about the condition of Jared Butler‘s knees, and the Pacers have thus far rebuffed efforts from teams below them to move up to No. 13. If Indiana keeps that No. 13 pick, the team is likely to target a more experienced prospect such as Corey Kispert, Davion Mitchell, or Chris Duarte, says Woo.
- Woo also reports that there has been some “real disagreement” within the Pistons‘ front office about what to do with the No. 1 pick. However, he expects Detroit to ultimately select Cade Cunningham. In his latest mock draft at ESPN.com (Insider link), Jonathan Givony cites sources who say a Pistons commitment to Cunningham could be “imminent.”
- Gonzaga’s Corey Kispert told reporters this week that the Spurs (No. 12), Wizards (No. 15), and Pelicans (No. 17) were among the teams he worked out for during the pre-draft process, as Mike Vornukov of The Athletic tweets. Based on reports, it looks like Kispert has worked out for every team in the 7-15 range except for the Grizzlies, who recently agreed to acquire the No. 10 pick from New Orleans.
Amick’s Latest: Lakers, Hield, Sixers, Simmons, Lillard
Of all the trade and free agent scenarios the Lakers are rumored to be considering, a deal with the Kings for Buddy Hield seems to be the “most promising” so far, a source tells Sam Amick of The Athletic.
That doesn’t necessarily mean that Hield is the Lakers’ top target this offseason, but it indicates that a trade with the Kings is a more realistic option for L.A. than acquiring a higher-level player like Chris Paul or Kyle Lowry, given the team’s cap constraints. A Hield trade would involve Kyle Kuzma and may require Montrezl Harrell to exercise his $9.7MM player option in order to be included in the package, writes Amick.
Here’s more on Hield, along with a few other tidbits from Amick related to free agency and the trade market:
- The Lakers aren’t the only team with some interest in Hield. A source with knowledge of the trade discussions tells Amick that the Sixers have also displayed interest in the veteran sharpshooter (unrelated to a Ben Simmons deal), and other teams are believed to have talked to the Kings about him as well. Amick believes Hield is a good candidate to be on the move this summer.
- It looks increasingly likely that the Sixers will move Simmons will this offseason, according to Amick, who says one source identified the Heat, Raptors, and Wizards as some of the most likely landing spots for Simmons. Washington would probably only be a realistic trade partner if Bradley Beal is in play, however. Meanwhile, Kyle Neubeck of PhillyVoice.com expresses skepticism that any deal sending Simmons to Miami would be a good fit for both the Heat and Sixers.
- Sources tell Amick that Damian Lillard is expected to continue focusing on earning gold with Team USA for the time being and will reassess the Trail Blazers‘ roster later in the offseason before making any decisions about his future.
Jazz Considered Likely To Re-Sign Mike Conley
Free agent point guard Mike Conley is likely to return to the Jazz, according to Tony Jones of The Athletic, though Jones cautions that the price tag “won’t be cheap.”
The report comes on the heels of a pair of similar stories from Tuesday. ESPN’s Brian Windhorst wrote that league executives believe Conley is most likely to remain in Utah, while Jake Fischer of Bleacher Report said there’s a “strong belief” around the league that the Jazz will be able to shed some salary and make Conley a substantial offer.
The Mavericks have been cited repeatedly as one team expected to show interest in Conley, but their focus is said to be more on Kyle Lowry, which perhaps reflects their belief that Lowry will be more attainable.
As we outlined in our preview of Utah’s offseason, the team is already on the hook for nearly $130MM in guaranteed salary for nine players. Even if Conley is willing to take a pay cut after earning $34.5MM last season, a reasonable deal for him (perhaps in the neighborhood of $20MM+ per year) would push the Jazz way into luxury tax territory.
Virtually all of Utah’s biggest contracts belong to productive rotation players, so if the club wants to trim salary, it may come at the cost of a regular contributor. The Jazz have reportedly explored trades involving Bojan Bogdanovic, Joe Ingles, and Derrick Favors.
Multiple reports have suggested the team could end up attaching this year’s No. 30 pick to Favors in a cost-cutting deal. Since Favors’ contract (two years, $20MM) isn’t especially unwieldy, it’s possible Utah could get a less expensive rotation player back in such a deal, though that’s just my speculation.
Here are a few more notes on the Jazz:
- Sources tell Jones that the Jazz remain high on second-year shooting guard Elijah Hughes and believe he could play his way into the team’s 2021/22 rotation. The team likes what he brings to the table offensively and will be looking for him to show defensive improvement in Summer League play, per Jones.
- Miles McBride, Ayo Dosunmu, and Nah’Shon Hyland are among the guards the Jazz like as possible targets if they keep the No. 30 pick, says Jones.
- If Utah trades the No. 30 pick and remains in the draft, moving up is unlikely, but a move down is a possibility, according to Jones, who says there are multiple players the team likes in the second round. One potential second-round target would be Iowa’s Joe Wieskamp, Jones adds.
O’Connor’s Latest: Nuggets, Grizzlies, Warriors, Kings, Hornets
Within his latest mock draft, Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer confirms a few items we’ve heard elsewhere in recent days. According to O’Connor, Jalen Green‘s workout with the Pistons last week was “outstanding,” the Jazz are willing to attach the No. 30 pick to Derrick Favors in a potential trade, and league sources widely expect Scottie Barnes to be the Magic‘s pick at No. 5.
O’Connor also reiterates that the Rockets continue to explore moving up to No. 1 and says the Thunder have made efforts to trade up, with Green, Cade Cunningham, and Evan Mobley among their presumed targets.
Here are a few more notes of interest from O’Connor’s latest article:
- League sources tell O’Connor that the Nuggets are trying to move up from No. 26 into the top 20, dangling young bench players or future draft assets in those talks.
- Although O’Connor confirms that the Grizzlies are interested in Josh Giddey after trading up to No. 10, he says Memphis could try to move up even further, with an eye on Jonathan Kuminga or James Bouknight.
- Giddey, Kuminga, and Bouknight could also be in the mix for the Warriors at No. 7, according to O’Connor, who says Giddey is thought to be one of Golden State’s “main targets.” O’Connor adds that Keon Johnson‘s ceiling may be the Warriors’ pick at No. 7.
- The Kings continue to be active in shopping the No. 9 pick, Buddy Hield, and Marvin Bagley III in separate trade scenarios, per O’Connor.
- League sources continue to connect the Hornets, who will be seeking a center this summer, to Myles Turner, Richaun Holmes, and Nerlens Noel, according to O’Connor.
NBA To Carry Over Most Of New Two-Way Rules To 2021/22
JULY 27: The NBA has issued a press release confirming the new two-way rules detailed below and announcing that a player on a two-way contract will be capped at 50 games on his team’s active list next season.
JULY 16: The NBA and the NBPA have agreed to carry over many of this season’s adjusted rules for two-way players to the 2021/22 season, reports ESPN’s Bobby Marks (Twitter link).
The league loosened the restrictions on how much time two-way players were permitted to spend in the NBA during the 2020/21 campaign and scrapped the typical midseason deadline for two-way signings. As Marks explains (via Twitter), the following adjustments will apply in 2021/22:
- There will be no in-season deadline to sign a player to a two-way contract.
- The salary for a two-way player will be half of the rookie minimum. Currently, the rookie minimum projects to be $925,258, in which case the two-way salary would be $462,629.
- Two-way players won’t face the usual 45-day NBA limit. However, there will be a cap on how many games they can spend on a team’s active list.
One notable change from this past season will be discontinued next year, according to Marks: A player on a two-way contract won’t be eligible to play in the postseason.
This year, players on two-way contracts were permitted to be active in the playoffs, but in 2021/22, if a team wants its two-way player to be available in the postseason, he’ll have to be converted to a standard deal before the end of the regular season.
Free Agent Rumors: Mavs, Lowry, Kawhi, Knicks, Dinwiddie, More
While the Mavericks are expected to show interest in free agent point guard Mike Conley, veteran NBA reporter Marc Stein says Dallas’ focus in free agency will be on pursuing Kyle Lowry and attempting to re-sign Tim Hardaway Jr. Reports to date have suggested that Conley is more likely than Lowry to return to his current team, so it makes sense that the Mavs would prioritize Lowry.
According to Stein, the Mavericks were initially expected to wait to see if Kawhi Leonard gave any indication that he was thinking about leaving the Clippers. However, the team has moved off of those plans, says Stein. That’s probably a signal that Leonard is unlikely to depart Los Angeles.
Here are a few more updates related to free agency:
- At least one key decision-maker in the Knicks‘ front office has “embraced” the idea of signing Spencer Dinwiddie this offseason, according to Ian Begley of SNY.tv, who hears that at least one other club plans to make the point guard a strong offer. Begley also confirms that DeMar DeRozan is among the other free agent guards on New York’s radar, though he says teams monitoring the situation view the Knicks as more likely to go after DeRozan if they’re able to acquire Damian Lillard in a trade.
- The Suns are among the teams eyeing sharpshooter Reggie Bullock as a possible free agent target, Begley writes in a separate SNY.tv story. The Knicks have “significant” interest in re-signing Bullock, Begley adds.
- Despite playing a modest role with the Nuggets down the stretch of the season, JaVale McGee is interested in re-signing with the team, two league sources tell Mike Singer of The Denver Post. Singer cautions that the veteran center figures to have multiple suitors on the open market.
- Rockets guard Avery Bradley is expected to draw interest from multiple playoff contenders if he becomes a free agent, sources tell Kelly Iko of The Athletic (Twitter link). Houston will have to make a decision soon on Bradley’s $5.9MM team option for 2021/22.
Hawks’ Kris Dunn To Exercise Player Option
Kris Dunn is opting into his contract for next season, according to Shams Charania of The Athletic (Twitter link), who hears from sources that the Hawks guard will pick up his 2021/22 option, worth just over $5MM.
The Hawks signed Dunn last offseason, envisioning him as a player who could share the backcourt with Trae Young and provide stout perimeter defense. However, injury woes derailed Dunn’s first year in Atlanta, as he was sidelined for most of the season while he recovered from ankle surgery.
Dunn made his Hawks debut in late April and ultimately appeared in just four regular season games and five playoff games, primarily in garbage time. In 2019/20, as a Bull, Dunn averaged 7.3 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 3.4 APG, and 2.0 SPG in 51 contests (24.9 MPG).
Although Dunn is now under contract with the Hawks for next season, that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll be on the club’s opening-night roster in the fall. Chris Kirschner of The Athletic (Twitter link) suggests it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Dunn and his expiring $5MM contract traded during the offseason.
With Dunn’s decision in, we’re still awaiting word on six more player option decisions around the NBA, as our tracker shows.
Nets Issuing Qualifying Offer To Bruce Brown
The Nets are tendering a qualifying offer to Bruce Brown, according to Michael Scotto of HoopsHype (Twitter link). The procedural move will ensure that Brown is a restricted free agent this summer.
Brown, who will turn 25 next month, played an important role for the Nets in 2020/21 after being acquired last fall from Detroit. He averaged 8.8 PPG and 5.4 RPG on .556/.288/.735 shooting in 65 games (22.3 MPG) and played tough, versatile defense for Brooklyn.
Because he met the starter criteria, Brown’s qualifying offer is worth approximately $4.7MM. If he accepts that one-year offer, he’ll become an unrestricted free agent in 2022, but he’s more likely to negotiate a new multiyear deal with the Nets or a rival suitor. Brooklyn would have the ability to match any offer sheet Brown signs with another team.
[RELATED: 2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Brooklyn Nets]
The Nets hold Brown’s Bird rights, so they won’t face any cap restrictions when it comes to re-signing him — it will simply be a matter of how much further into tax territory team ownership is willing to go.