Community Shootaround: Eastern Conference Odds For 2020/21
The Heat lost just three games during the first three rounds against their playoff opponents in the East en route to an NBA Finals appearance this year, eliminating three of the top four seeds in the conference in the process. However, Miami’s impressive postseason run hasn’t made the team the favorite to come out of the East in 2021, according to oddsmakers.
At BetOnline.ag, the Heat are listed at +450 to win the Eastern Conference in ’21, meaning you’d win $450 on a $100 wager should Miami repeat as conference champs. The Bucks (+375), Celtics (+425), and Nets (+425) are currently considered more likely to represent the East in next year’s NBA Finals.
The rest of the odds to win the East next year are as follows, per BetOnline.ag:
- Raptors: +750
- Sixers: +1200
- Bulls: +3300
- Hawks: +3300
- Pacers: +3300
- Wizards: +3300
- Magic: +10000
- Cavaliers: +12500
- Knicks: +12500
- Pistons: +12500
- Hornets: +17500
It’s obviously way too early to forecast the outcome of the 2020/21 season with any confidence. The draft and free agency are still to come, and we don’t know yet which teams will make major splashes on the trade market. If Victor Oladipo is dealt from Indiana to another Eastern team, for example, it could significantly change the conference’s outlook for next season.
Still, anticipated roster moves are at least somewhat baked into BetOnline’s current odds — if the Pacers had a ton of cap room to use this offseason and Oladipo and Myles Turner weren’t viewed as potential trade candidates, it’s a safe bet that they wouldn’t be listed alongside lottery teams Chicago, Atlanta, and Washington on the list above.
So, with the caveat that plenty could change in the coming months to alter the outlook of the East for the 2020/21 season, we want to get your thoughts on the early projections from oddsmakers.
Should the Bucks be considered the favorites to win the East? Should the Heat be listed higher than fourth among Eastern teams? Are the Nets or other teams being overvalued? Are the Pacers or other teams being undervalued? Which team do you like to come out of the East next season? And which club do you view as the best value pick based on the odds listed above?
Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your early forecast for the Eastern Conference in 2020/21!
And-Ones: Mirotic, Schedule, VanVleet, More
Former NBA forward and current Barcelona star Nikola Mirotic announced on Twitter that he has tested positive for COVID-19, as Emiliano Carchia of Sportando relays. Mirotic said he feels fine and is following doctors’ instructions, but he won’t be playing in today’s game against Valencia Basket and his availability for Barcelona’s next several games will be jeopardized as well.
As noted in an ESPN story on Mirotic’s positive test, Barcelona head coach Sarunas Jasikevicius and assistant Darius Maskoliunas both tested positive for the coronavirus earlier in October.
Here are more odds and ends from around the basketball world:
- John Hollinger of The Athletic takes a shot at predicting what the NBA’s offseason calendar might look like, speculating that free agency will begin right near the end of November (after Thanksgiving) and that Martin Luther King Day (January 18) will be the league’s new target date for opening night of the 2020/21 regular season.
- In an interesting piece for The Athletic, a series of beat writers – including Eric Koreen, James Edwards III, and Mike Vorkunov – conducted a mock version of Fred VanVleet‘s free agency negotiations, concluding that the point guard’s floor this offseason is probably a four-year worth at least $80MM. In The Athletic’s exercise, the Raptors beat out the Pistons and Knicks to re-sign VanVleet.
- Life isn’t always glamorous for American-born players who head overseas to continue their careers, according to CJ Moore of The Athletic, who spoke to a number of U.S. players that didn’t have great experiences playing in Europe or Asia.
Tyronn Lue Gaining Momentum For Rockets’ Job?
Having met with Rockets ownership and management on Monday, Tyronn Lue is gaining momentum as a candidate to replace Mike D’Antoni in Houston, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski and Tim MacMahon report.
As Wojnarowski and MacMahon explain, the Rockets may look to offer Lue a contract before his other suitors – including the Clippers – complete their respective coaching searches. However, Houston isn’t expected to make a move on Lue before meeting with Jeff Van Gundy on Wednesday, since JVG also remains a strong candidate for the position.
According to ESPN, Lue – who was identified as an early frontrunner to replace Doc Rivers in Los Angeles – has support from “prominent players” on both the Rockets’ and Clippers’ rosters. Presumably, that’s a reference to some combination of James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Kawhi Leonard, and Paul George.
Still, it remains to be seen whether Lue will ultimately be the top choice for both teams. Van Gundy figures to be a “prominent” factor in the Rockets’ and Clippers’ searches as well, according to Wojnarowski and MacMahon, who say that JVG is well regarded by Rockets ownership and management and likes the idea of coaching in his “adopted home city” of Houston. Previous reports linked Van Gundy to the Clippers’ vacancy too, though it’s not clear if L.A. has scheduled an interview with him yet.
Lue is also believed to be a top candidate for the Pelicans’ head coaching job.
Rockets To Interview Jeff Van Gundy On Wednesday
The Rockets will interview ABC/ESPN analyst Jeff Van Gundy on Wednesday for their open head coaching job, reports Marc Stein of The New York Times (Twitter link). Van Gundy has been linked to the vacancy for some time and was expected to meet with the team once his broadcasting duties wrapped up for the season.
Van Gundy has extensive NBA head coaching experience, having led the Knicks from 1996-2001 and the Rockets from 2003-07. He had a 248-172 (.590) record in New York and led the team to the NBA Finals in 1999, then posted a 182-146 (.555) mark during his four years in Houston.
While Van Gundy has worked as a broadcaster for more than a decade, he does have some recent head coaching experience, having led a USA Basketball team made up of G-Leaguers during the qualifiers for the 2019 World Cup.
It remains to be seen just how serious the Rockets and Van Gundy are about a potential reunion. There has been some speculation that he may be the club’s frontrunner to replace Mike D’Antoni.
It’s worth noting that Daryl Morey had just been promoted to his general manager role by the franchise in 2007 when the club parted ways with JVG. However, that move was believed to be spearheaded by former Rockets owner Les Alexander, with Morey said to be interested in re-hiring Van Gundy back in 2016.
So far, the Rockets have interviewed Tyronn Lue, Kenny Atkinson, Stephen Silas, David Vanterpool, and Wes Unseld Jr. for their head coaching position. A report on Monday indicated that team officials had also met with Rockets player development coach John Lucas about the job, though Stein says today (via Twitter) that Lucas’ formal interview is expected to take place after Van Gundy’s.
It’s not clear yet whether or not the Rockets will expand their pool of candidates beyond the seven currently being linked to the opening.
Brett Brown Steps Down As Australia’s Head Coach
After losing his NBA position earlier this year, former Sixers head coach Brett Brown has now elected to step down from his international coaching job as well. Brown has resigned from his role as Australia’s head coach and won’t lead the Boomers at the rescheduled Tokyo Olympics, the program announced today in a press release.
“Whilst I have a deep and long-standing passion for Australian Basketball, I am currently unable to commit to coaching the Boomers at next year’s Olympic Games,” Brown said in a statement. “The uncertainties around the direction of my professional future unfortunately mean that I cannot commit to the time and preparation that this job deserves and requires. The difficulties around traveling internationally with my family during the pandemic have also contributed to my decision.”
Basketball Australia CEO Jerril Rechter said in a statement that the program is “naturally disappointed” that Brown will no longer be coaching the team, but understands his decision.
Brown initially finalized a deal to coach the Australian national team last November, after the club had clinched a spot in the Tokyo Olympics with its fourth-place finish at the 2019 World Cup. Those Olympics had originally been scheduled to begin on July 24, 2020. Due to the coronavirus pandemic, the new start date for the Tokyo games is July 23, 2021.
Aron Baynes, Matthew Dellavedova, Joe Ingles, and Patty Mills are among the notable players expected to represent Australia in Japan next summer, as long as they’re able to work around the revamped NBA schedule. The selection of Brown as the Boomers’ head coach led to speculation that Sixers star Ben Simmons may elect to participate as well — it’s not clear if Brown’s resignation will influence Simmons’ decision one way or the other.
Checking In On NBA’s Active Head Coaching Searches
It has been a busy year on the NBA’s head coaching carousel, with four teams having hired new coaches since the hiatus originally began in March and five more clubs still in the market for a new coach.
In the space below, we’re checking in on where those five active searches stand and passing along what we know so far about the most likely candidates for those openings.
While this post is just meant to provide a snapshot of where things stand as of October 12, you can continue to follow the NBA’s coaching carousel in the coming weeks via our tracker.
Let’s dive in…
Houston Rockets
We just passed along an update on the Rockets’ search earlier today. It sounds like the team’s interview process currently includes seven candidates, several of whom have already spoken to the team: Tyronn Lue, Jeff Van Gundy, Kenny Atkinson, Stephen Silas, Wes Unseld Jr., David Vanterpool, and John Lucas.
Although assistant coaches Sam Cassell and Chris Finch have also been linked to the job, it doesn’t sound as if they’ve interviewed for it. For now, the seven candidates listed above appear to make up Houston’s pool of contenders, though it’s possible the team eventually casts a wider net.
Lue and Van Gundy were two of the first candidates connected to the position even before Mike D’Antoni parted ways with the team, and general manager Daryl Morey was reportedly interested in JVG a few years ago, when the Rockets ultimately went with D’Antoni. I’d probably view Lue and Van Gundy as the favorites, but if salary becomes an issue at all, perhaps the club will instead opt for a potential first-timer such as Silas, Unseld, or Vanterpool.
Indiana Pacers
ESPN’s Brian Windhorst previously reported that the Pacers had talked to over 20 candidates about their head coaching job. It’s not clear if all 20+ of those candidates had formal interviews with Indiana or if some of those conversations were more casual in nature, but it’s clear the team is being thorough as it seeks a replacement for Nate McMillan.
Based on a report from ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski earlier this month, it sounds as if the Pacers have gotten serious about the interview process within the last two weeks. Dave Joerger and Darvin Ham were reportedly among the candidates to emerge during that time, though it’s unclear how aggressive Indiana has been in narrowing down its list of finalists. Joerger and Ham may have plenty of company in that group of “finalists.”
Chris Finch and Chauncey Billups are reportedly among the other candidates to meet with the Pacers in the last couple weeks, and Scott Agness of VigilantSports.com tweeted on Sunday night that the team will have an opportunity to meet with Heat assistants Dan Craig and Chris Quinn now that the Finals are over. The full list of candidates linked to the Pacers’ job can be found within our tracker.
Los Angeles Clippers
There hasn’t been a ton of chatter about the Clippers’ opening since Doc Rivers‘ surprising departure two weeks ago. His lead assistant, Tyronn Lue, was identified as the early frontrunner, but those reports came with the caveat that the Clippers do intend to conduct a full-fledged search.
Jeff Van Gundy, Mike Brown, Darvin Ham, and Wes Unseld Jr. have been mentioned as possible candidates for L.A. With Kawhi Leonard and Paul George only a year away from free agency and the Clippers in championship-or-bust mode, the club will spare no expense on its new head coach, so it will be fascinating to see which direction Steve Ballmer and Lawrence Frank will go.
Frank is coming off an Executive of the Year win and hasn’t had a chance to pick his own head coach yet during his tenure with the Clippers (Rivers’ stint predated Frank’s arrival in L.A.). In theory, he should have some leeway to take a risk and go off the board with an unconventional Steve Nash-esque hire if he feels confident that’s the best path to take. But with such lofty expectations facing the Clippers in 2020/21, Frank will want to be absolutely sure he gets this hire right.
New Orleans Pelicans
Back when the Pelicans dismissed Alvin Gentry in August, one team (the Knicks) had already completed a coaching search and only one other (the Bulls) had a search in progress. Since then, the Bulls have finalized a hire, six more teams have parted ways with their head coaches, and two of those six teams (Brooklyn and Philadelphia) have made new hires of their own.
In other words, the Pelicans appear very willing to take their time with this process.
The lack of reports about the New Orleans job is somewhat surprising. Jason Kidd, Kenny Atkinson, and Jacque Vaughn were cited as possible candidates around the time of Gentry’s firing, but there haven’t been any real updates on them in recent weeks. Mike D’Antoni was said to be a dark-horse candidate before he left Houston, and that rumor popped up again when the Rockets parted ways with him, but it’s been quiet on that front as of late.
There are two scenarios I find most plausible here. One is that Tyronn Lue, who worked under Pelicans executive VP of basketball operations David Griffin in Cleveland, is New Orleans’ top choice and the team is waiting for him to go through the process with the Rockets and Clippers and make a decision.
The other viable scenario? Maybe the Pelicans are just playing things very close to the vest as they consider their options and will surprise us at some point with their decision.
Oklahoma City Thunder
If the silence around the Pelicans’ coaching job has been loud, the silence surrounding the Thunder’s vacancy has been deafening.
It has now been over a month since Oklahoma City and Donovan parted ways, and we’ve essentially heard nothing concrete since then about potential replacements. ESPN’s Brian Windhorst did name David Vanterpool, Adrian Griffin, and Will Hardy as possible candidates at one point, but that sounded like it could’ve just as easily been informed speculation rather than anything solid.
Given the reported motivation for Donovan’s departure, it seems like a safe bet that the Thunder will be looking to hire an up-and-coming coach who doesn’t mind enduring a rebuild and who can grow and develop along with the team’s young core. Given the lack of info coming out of Oklahoma City on the search so far, it’s unclear if the team is seriously clamping down on any leaks or if the search process just hasn’t gotten serious yet.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
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Lakers Notes: Davis, LeBron, Pelinka, More
LeBron James added a few more major achievements to his résumé on Sunday, including his fourth NBA championship and his fourth Finals MVP award. However, as Anthony Slater of The Athletic writes, the Lakers’ playoff run and championship was also a major boon for Anthony Davis‘ reputation.
Within his article, Slater wonders how many players in the NBA a team would rather have on its roster over the next five seasons than Davis. In the wake of his extremely impressive postseason performance, Davis deserves to be mentioned in the NBA’s top tier of current stars, alongside the likes of James, Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Stephen Curry, and Giannis Antetokounmpo, according to Slater, who adds that AD has a realistic chance to make a run at the title of world’s best player in the coming years.
Here’s more on the Lakers:
- Will James’ fourth title be his last? He certainly sounds prepared to go after his fifth, telling reporters after Sunday’s win that he’s still “got a lot of years left,” as ESPN relays (via Twitter).
- An in-depth Ramona Shelburne piece at ESPN.com about Jeanie Buss‘ role in the latest Lakers title includes the following quote from an unnamed senior Lakers executive, which appears to be a shot directed at the Clippers: “While some of our so-called rivals spent literally hundreds of millions of dollars trying to win media cycles, we kept our heads down and focused on basketball — because the only thing we’ve ever cared about winning is championships.”
- Jeff Zillgitt of USA Today outlines the long road the Lakers took to get to where they are today, starting with their 21-win and 17-win seasons from 2014-16.
- In his press conference following the Lakers’ win on Sunday, general manager Rob Pelinka recalled the faith that Kobe Bryant expressed in him when he was first hired by the franchise (link via Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPN). “He said, ‘I’ll give you two, three years, you’ll fix this. You’ll get the Lakers back on top.'” Pelinka said of the late Bryant, whom he represented for two decades as an agent. “I guess you were right, man. You give me the energy to do it.”
- Earlier today, we passed along Anthony Davis‘ comments on his contract situation.
Anthony Davis On Potential Free Agency: “We’ll Figure It Out”
Superstar big man Anthony Davis holds a $28.75MM player option for the 2020/21 season, but the expectation is that he’ll turn down that option in order to sign a new contract with the Lakers. Asked after Sunday’s win about his potential free agency, Davis was noncommittal, as Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPN writes.
“I have no idea,” Davis said. “I don’t know.”
Asked to clarify his initial comment, Davis continued: “I had a great time in L.A. this first year. This has been nothing but joy, nothing but amazement. Over the next couple of months, we’ll figure it out. I mean, I’m not 100% sure, but that’s why my agent (Rich Paul) is who he is, and we’ll discuss it and figure it out.”
Davis faced a significant backlash during the 2018/19 season when he publicly requested a trade out of New Orleans and made it clear that the Lakers were his preferred landing spot. After a few uncomfortable months following his initial request, he got the trade he wanted, and his first season in L.A. played out about as well as he could have hoped.
Davis averaged 26.1 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 3.2 APG, and 2.3 BPG in 62 regular season games (34.4 MPG) for the Lakers, finishing sixth in MVP voting and second in Defensive Player of the Year voting. He followed that up by recording 27.7 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 3.5 APG, and 1.4 BPG in 21 postseason contests en route to the first title of his career.
“It’s just part of your legacy, to say you’re a champion,” the 27-year-old said on Sunday, per Youngmisuk. “Not everybody can say that. I wanted to do the same thing in New Orleans. … When I got traded, that’s all I wanted was to be a champion. To be able to compete, be able to win. I was able to do that my first year with the Lakers.”
It may seem unusual in the wake of such a successful year that Davis wouldn’t express a desire to return to the Lakers in stronger terms. Still, it would be shocking if he seriously considers signing with another club once he becomes a free agent. Any uncertainty he conveyed on Sunday about his situation likely applies to the length and structure of his next contract rather than his destination.
The salary cap for the 2020/21 season remains up in the air, but the cap would have to dip substantially to make it worthwhile for Davis to consider opting in for $28.75MM. If the cap remains at the same level as it did in ’19/20, AD’s maximum salary on a new contract would be about $32.74MM.
While the Lakers would certainly be willing to put a five-year, maximum-salary offer on the table for Davis this fall, it might make more sense for him to accept a shorter-term deal, especially with the NBA’s cap situation in flux. In 2022, he’d be able to receive a starting salary worth 35% of the cap, rather than the 30% he can get now, so waiting until then to sign a long-term contract would allow him to maximize his future earnings.
Bulls’ Donovan Overhauling Coaching Staff
Bulls head coach Billy Donovan has informed multiple assistant coaches still under contract with the team that they won’t be part of his staff for the 2020/21 season, according to K.C. Johnson of NBC Sports Chicago.
Roy Rogers, Dean Cooper, and Nate Loenser won’t be returning to to the club after working on Jim Boylen‘s staff last season, Johnson reports. Karen Stack Umlauf has also been let go, per an official announcement from the Bulls.
“I appreciate the time that I was able to spend with Dean, Nate, Roy and Karen. I really want to thank all of them for their service and commitment to the Chicago Bulls,” Donovan said in a statement. “This is the tough side to our business, and I wish all of them the best moving forward.”
Rogers had only completed one season on his three-year deal and Loenser had his team option for 2020/21 exercised in the spring, but Bulls ownership continues to give the team’s new decision-makers the green light to make changes even if they’ll cost the organization some money, per Johnson.
It’s possible the Bulls will make additional changes to their coaching staff, but for now it sounds as if Chris Fleming is sticking around. Fleming worked with new Bulls executive VP of basketball operations Arturas Karnisovas in Denver during the 2015/16 season, and Johnson has previously reported that there’s a “trust factor” between the two men.
It remains to be seen who will join Donovan’s revamped staff in Chicago, but Joe Cowley of The Chicago Sun-Times speculates that Maurice Cheeks could be a candidate. Cheeks is a Chicago native and has been an assistant under Donovan for the last five years in Oklahoma City.