Community Shootaround: Western Conference Odds For 2020/21
After winning the NBA Finals in 2020, the Lakers are currently listed by sportsbooks as the odds-on frontrunners to do so again in 2021.
Over at BetOnline.ag, oddsmakers have listed the Lakers as +275 favorites to come out of the Western Conference in 2020/21. That means if you place a $100 bet on the Lakers and they win the West next season, you’ll win $275.
While the Lakers are the current favorites, BetOnline.ag places two other Western Conference teams in roughly the same tier. The Clippers (+375) have the second-best odds to win the conference, while the Warriors (+400) have the third-best odds.
Golden State’s placement is an interesting one. We can safely assume that the Warriors will be much improved in 2020/21 with a healthy Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson back in their lineup, and they have the resources necessary to make further roster upgrades. Still, the club is coming off a dismal 15-50 season that saw them finish in last place in the NBA. Winning the West in 2021 would represent a historic turnaround.
The rest of the odds to win the West next year are as follows, per BetOnline.ag:
- Nuggets: +1200
- Rockets: +1200
- Mavericks: +1400
- Trail Blazers: +1800
- Jazz: +2500
- Pelicans: +2500
- Suns: +3300
- Thunder: +4000
- Grizzlies: +5000
- Kings: +12500
- Spurs: +12500
- Timberwolves: +12500
As we acknowledged on Tuesday when we asked you for your thoughts on the Eastern Conference odds for 2020/21, it’s way too early to confidently predict next year’s conference champions. Rosters will undergo significant changes in the coming months in the draft and free agency, and on the trade market.
Still, the anticipated offseason directions for certain teams is baked into BetOnline’s odds. The Thunder would certainly be higher on the above list if the possibility of a rebuild wasn’t hanging over the franchise.
So, with the caveat that plenty could change in the coming months to alter the outlook of the West for the 2020/21 season, we want to get your thoughts on the early projections from oddsmakers.
Should the Lakers be considered the favorites to come out of the West again in 2021? Are the Warriors or another team being overvalued? Are there other clubs being undervalued? Which team do you like to come out of the West next season? And which club do you view as the best value pick based on the odds listed above?
Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your early forecast for the Western Conference in 2020/21!
Execs Believe Wolves Prefer To Trade No. 1 Pick
Executives around the NBA believe the Timberwolves would prefer to trade the No. 1 pick, moving down from – or entirely out of – that spot in order to bring in a win-now player, says Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer in his latest mock draft.
This isn’t the first time we’ve heard that Minnesota is open to trading the top pick. In fact, trade rumors have swirled around the No. 1 selection since the team won the draft lottery in August. However, O’Connor’s assertion that the Timberwolves would be targeting a “win-now” player to complement Karl-Anthony Towns and D’Angelo Russell provides a hint of what sort of deal they’ll be seeking if and when they shop that first overall pick.
The Wolves don’t project to have cap room this offseason and don’t have any useful trade exceptions available, so they won’t be able to trade the pick straight up for a veteran player (or for a veteran and another pick). However, James Johnson‘s expiring $16MM contract could be used as a trade chip to match salaries if necessary.
With no clear-cut top prospect in this year’s draft class, the Timberwolves won’t have an easy decision if they keep the No. 1 pick. As Sam Vecenie of The Athletic observed earlier this week, LaMelo Ball, Anthony Edwards, and James Wiseman are widely viewed as this year’s highest-upside prospects and are the top contenders for the No. 1 pick, but none of them are ideal fits for Minnesota’s roster.
The Wolves could badly use a strong two-way player who would help make up for Russell’s and Towns’ defensive shortcomings. Ball and Edwards aren’t strong defenders, so they don’t really fit that bill. Wiseman has more upside on that side of the ball, but might have a hard time playing alongside Towns, as Vecenie writes.
Since the league as a whole isn’t overly enthusiastic about this year’s top prospects, it will be a challenge for Minnesota to find a favorable trade involving the No. 1 pick, per Vecenie. Still, The Athletic’s draft guru feels as if a deal might be in the Wolves’ best interests even if the return is “a bit more muted” than it would’ve been for the first overall pick in another draft.
President of basketball operations Gersson Rosas has turned over nearly the entire Timberwolves roster since assuming control of the front office in 2019, so he won’t be hesitant to make a splash if he gets an offer he likes. The NBA’s transaction moratorium remains in place for the time being, but with five more weeks until draft day, Rosas has plenty of time to see what’s out there.
Mike D’Antoni A Candidate To Join Steve Nash’s Staff?
Former Rockets head coach Mike D’Antoni is a candidate to join Steve Nash‘s new coaching staff with the Nets, a source tells Frank Isola of SiriusXM NBA Radio (Twitter link).
D’Antoni and Nash obviously have an extensive history — Nash played for D’Antoni for four years in Phoenix, earning four consecutive All-Star berths and a pair of MVP awards during that time. The veteran point guard later played for D’Antoni again in Los Angeles with the Lakers.
A source tells Marc Berman of The New York Post that D’Antoni and Nash remain “tight.” Berman also refers to D’Antoni as an “X’s and O’s offensive master,” suggesting he’d be a good match for a first-time head coach like Nash, who admitted last month that he was hired more for his relationships and culture-building skills than his tactical acumen.
D’Antoni has been linked to head coaching openings in Indiana and New Orleans and would presumably favor one of those jobs over an assistant position. However, it’s unclear if he’s a finalist for either the Pacers’ or Pelicans’ vacancy.
If he’s willing to accept an assistant role, D’Antoni makes sense as a target for the Nets, given his connection with Nash and the franchise’s deep pockets. Brooklyn made Jacque Vaughn the NBA’s highest-paid assistant, so presumably the team would be amenable to making an aggressive offer for D’Antoni as well.
Isola also mentions Lakers assistant Phil Handy as a possible candidate for Nash’s staff. Handy has previously been identified in multiple reports as a possible target for the Nets.
And-Ones: Option Decisions, Avdija, Draft, Onuaku
With the NBA season over and 2020’s free agent period approaching (eventually), John Hollinger of The Athletic takes a look at all 43 team and player option decisions that must be made this fall, evaluating which options are likely to be exercised and which will be turned down.
While Anthony Davis and Jerami Grant are viewed as the only locks to decline their respective player options this offseason, Hollinger identifies seven more players who he thinks will opt for free agency: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Rajon Rondo, JaVale McGee, Wesley Matthews, Austin Rivers, Willie Cauley-Stein, and James Ennis.
With the exception of Caldwell-Pope, McGee, and Cauley-Stein – who is technically earning slightly above the minimum – those players are all on minimum-salary deals, so it won’t be a surprise if they explore the open market, even if they have to settle for another minimum contract. However, KCP’s case should be interesting — his $8.49MM option for 2020/21 is close to mid-level territory, but he could still probably do better after an impressive showing in the NBA Finals.
Here are more odds and ends from around the basketball world:
- ESPN’s Brian Windhorst and Bobby Marks take a look at next steps for the NBA, including what next season’s schedule might look like and when roster moves might resume. While there’s currently a freeze on transactions, team executives confirmed to ESPN that the moratorium will be lifted and trades will be permitted before the draft on November 18.
- Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer and Jeremy Woo of SI.com have each published updated versions of their mock drafts for 2020. Both draft experts have Anthony Edwards going No. 1, but O’Connor has a surprise pick at No. 2, penciling in Deni Avdija. League executives expect Avdija to “enter the mainstream conversation as a top-three pick” in the coming weeks, according to O’Connor.
- Former NBA big man Chinanu Onuaku has reached an agreement to sign with Croatian team KK Zadar, a source tells Emiliano Carchia of Sportando. Onuaku was the 37th overall pick in the 2016 draft, but didn’t see much action in two seasons with Houston, appearing in just six total games before being traded and waived.
Kings’ McNair Revamping Front Office, Hires Wilcox As Assistant GM
OCTOBER 14: The Kings have officially issued a press release confirming the new hires and titles detailed below. In addition to his director of basketball operations role, Johnson will also serve as the new general manager for the Stockton Kings, Sacramento’s G League affiliate.
According to the team, Wilcox will assist McNair in front office duties such as “roster construction, strategy and player evaluation,” Jabour will be responsible for overseeing the scouting department, and Johnson will lead Stockton’s front office in addition to contributing to aspects of the Kings’ basketball operations.
“I am excited to have Wes, Phil and Paul join the front office,” McNair said in a statement. “Wes’ background as an executive in the league combined with Phil’s veteran leadership through the scouting ranks and Paul’s proven experience in evaluating talent will be strong additions to the basketball operations group. Their diverse skill sets and unique perspectives will add valuable knowledge and innovative thinking as we focus on executing our vision of building a winning culture in Sacramento.”
OCTOBER 13: Less than a month after being hired, new Kings general manager Monte McNair is making major changes to the team’s front office, according to Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN (Twitter link).
The Kings are hiring Wes Wilcox as an assistant general manager, Phil Jabour as vice president of player personnel, and Paul Johnson as director of basketball operations, sources tell Wojnarowski.
Wilcox is the most noteworthy name among Sacramento’s new additions, having previously served as Atlanta’s general manager from 2015-17. He interviewed for the Bulls’ top basketball operations job and was a finalist for the Kings’ job this summer before the team opted to hire McNair. Prior to his stint in the Hawks’ front office, Wilcox worked for the Heat and Pelicans and spent several years with the Cavaliers.
Jabour arrives in Sacramento after having worked as the Sixers‘ director of scouting last season. He also previously held positions in the scouting departments in Orlando and Houston, overlapping with McNair during his time with the Rockets.
Johnson, meanwhile, was named the assistant GM of the Oklahoma City Blue, the Thunder‘s G League affiliate, just two weeks ago. However, his new director of basketball operations role in Sacramento represents a promotion.
McNair had been expected to fortify the Kings’ front office after the team parted ways with several executives this offseason. In addition to the departure of former GM Vlade Divac, assistant GM Peja Stojakovic resigned and G League GM Anthony McClish was let go. Sacramento is reportedly expected to retain assistant GM and salary cap expert Ken Catanella.
Clippers Interview Sam Cassell For Head Coaching Job
The Clippers interviewed assistant coach Sam Cassell on Tuesday for their open head coaching job, reports Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN (Twitter link).
Cassell, a former NBA player who won two titles with the Rockets and a third with the Celtics, transitioned into coaching after he retired in 2009. He spent five seasons on the Wizards’ staff as an assistant and has worked since 2014 under Doc Rivers in Los Angeles. Rivers endorsed his longtime assistant as a deserving NBA head coaching candidate last month before he parted ways with the Clippers.
“Sam Cassell should be a head coach, period,” Rivers said at the time.
Cassell is the second Clippers assistant to have interviewed for the team’s coaching vacancy so far, joining Tyronn Lue. The club has also reportedly met with Mike Brown, Darvin Ham, and Wes Unseld Jr. and is said to have interest in Jeff Van Gundy. It’s not clear how many other candidates the Clippers may interview before making a decision.
Cassell was also said to be drawing some interest from the Rockets, but it doesn’t appear that he has interviewed with Houston to this point. If he doesn’t receive a head coaching job this fall, it will be interesting to see whether Cassell remains in his assistant role with the Clippers, follows Rivers to Philadelphia, or ends up on another team’s coaching staff.
Uncertainty Surrounds NBA G League’s 2020/21 Season
It remains unclear when the NBA’s 2020/21 season will begin and what form it will take, and that uncertainty applies doubly to the coming G League season. As Marc Berman of The New York Post writes, there’s no guarantee a standard NBAGL season will take place in ’20/21.
According to Berman, multiple scenarios have been discussed for a potential G League season, including the idea of not holding one at all and simply expanding NBA rosters instead.
As John Hollinger of The Athletic noted earlier this week and as Berman reiterates, one option for the NBAGL could be to put together multiple short-term “bubbles” and hold a handful of week-long events similar to the annual G League Showcase.
If the league attempts a more standard season, it would likely have to institute a regionalized schedule to reduce travel, sources tell Berman. Unlike NBA teams, who have private planes, G League clubs generally fly commercial or travel by bus, increasing the coronavirus-related risk associated with moving around the country.
The 2020/21 season was supposed to be an eventful one for the G League, which had intended to introduce an expansion team in Mexico City and a new “Select Team” made up of some veterans and top prospects who opted not to attend college. It’s unclear what the plan would be for those clubs – and the other 28 – if a season can’t be held.
[RELATED: G League Mulling Fall Tournament Featuring Select Team]
The NBA and NBPA figure to address this issue during their Collective Bargaining Agreement negotiations, since it will have an impact on NBA rosters too. Teams often send young players on their 15-man roster to the G League on assignments and also carry a pair of players on two-way contracts who can be transferred back and forth between the NBA and NBAGL. If no G League season takes place, the rules for those two-way deals will have to be tweaked.
Stan Van Gundy, Tyronn Lue Among Pelicans’ Finalists
Stan Van Gundy and Tyronn Lue are expected to be among the finalists for the Pelicans‘ head coaching job, reports ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski.
According to Wojnarowski, Van Gundy is meeting with New Orleans team officials today, while Lue has a meeting set for later this week. The Pelicans are expected to identify a group of four finalists to replace Alvin Gentry, per Woj.
So far this year, we’ve heard Jeff Van Gundy linked to multiple NBA head coaching jobs – including the Clippers’ and Rockets’ openings – but there hadn’t been a whole lot of chatter about the possibility of his brother returning to the sidelines.
Stan Van Gundy previously served as the head coach for the Heat, Magic, and Pistons, enjoying his most successful run in Orlando, where he led the Magic to a 259-135 (.657) record over five seasons and made the NBA Finals in 2009.
Van Gundy had a shakier experience in Detroit from 2014-18, compiling a 152-176 (.463) record. However, he held a dual role with the Pistons, also working as the team’s president of basketball operations. Presumably, he wouldn’t be nearly as involved in personnel decisions if he were to be hired by New Orleans, freeing him up to focus on coaching.
As for Lue, he has long been viewed as a potential favorite for the Pelicans’ job, given his connection to executive VP of basketball operations David Griffin — the two men worked together in Cleveland. Lue is also very much in the mix for the Clippers‘ and Rockets‘ jobs, so it’s possible he’ll end up having to choose between two or more offers.
2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Indiana Pacers
Hoops Rumors is previewing the 2020 offseason for all 30 NBA teams. We’re looking at the key questions facing each club, as well as the roster decisions they’ll have to make this fall. Today, we’re focusing on the Indiana Pacers.
Salary Cap Outlook
After using their cap room last summer to sign or acquire multiyear, eight-figure contracts for Malcolm Brogdon, T.J. Warren, and Jeremy Lamb, the Pacers will have no space available this offseason.
With nearly $123MM in guaranteed money committed to 11 players so far, Indiana may not be in position to use its full mid-level exception without going into tax territory. The club is more likely to make use of the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5.72MM).
Our full salary cap preview for the Pacers can be found right here.
Roster Decisions To Watch
Options:
- None
Non-Guaranteed Contracts:
- T.J. McConnell ($3,500,000)
- Note: Partially guaranteed for $1MM.
Two-Way Contracts:
- Brian Bowen (expiring)
- Naz Mitrou-Long (expiring)
Free Agents:
- Justin Holiday (Non-Bird)
- JaKarr Sampson (Non-Bird)
- Alize Johnson (RFA; Early Bird)
2020 Draft Assets
First Round:
- None
Second Round:
- No. 54 overall pick
The Pacers have their own second-round pick, but traded away their first-rounder (No. 24) to Milwaukee in last year’s Malcolm Brogdon sign-and-trade.
Three Key Offseason Questions
1. Has Victor Oladipo played his last game for the Pacers?
Oladipo will be entering a contract year in 2020/21 and he’s not a lock to remain in Indiana beyond his current deal. Ever since a spring report suggested that teams were monitoring Oladipo’s situation with the Pacers, rumors about his future have popped up more and more frequently.
The Heat were identified in the summer as a potential threat to lure Oladipo away from Indiana, with reports at the time suggesting the two-time All-Star would be prioritizing two things on his next contract: maximizing his earnings and putting himself in position to win a championship.
The unstated implication? If Oladipo decided the Pacers weren’t on track to become a legit title contender, it might make sense for him to push for a trade to a preferred destination sooner rather than later, since that would put him in position to get the best possible offer from that team in free agency (when he becomes a free agent, his current team can offer him more years and more money than rival suitors).
As a result of those earlier rumors, it didn’t come as a major surprise when a September report indicated Oladipo was “looking to move on” from Indiana or when a second report confirmed that he’s a candidate to be dealt this offseason. The 28-year-old has since attempted to downplay that chatter, but at this point it would be a bit surprising if Oladipo remains with the Pacers through 2020/21 and then signs a long-term deal with the franchise.
Throughout the process, the Pacers have stated that retaining Oladipo is a priority and have shown signals that they’ll do all they can to make it happen. They were even willing to pay him the remainder of his 2019/20 salary when he initially planned on opting out of the summer restart to focus on his health, despite the fact that he’d received medical clearance from doctors.
But if Indiana knows Oladipo plans to leave in free agency in 2021, it’s in the organization’s best interests to see what it can get for him before then rather to resign itself to losing him for nothing. The Pacers’ willingness to take that route with Paul George was the reason the team landed Oladipo (and fellow All-Star Domantas Sabonis) in the first place.
The challenge for the Pacers if they explore the trade market for an Oladipo deal will be finding a trade partner willing to give up a package that reflects the guard’s pre-injury value. Since Oladipo returned from his torn quad tendon in January, he hasn’t quite looked like the same player — in 19 games this season, he averaged just 14.5 PPG on .394/.317/.814 shooting.
Questions surrounding Oladipo’s health and production going forward will complicate any trade talks, especially if suitors believe they’ll have a shot to sign him outright in free agency a year from now. As such, an offseason trade definitely isn’t a sure thing.
In fact, sticking with Oladipo and hoping he looks like his old self to start next season may end up being Indiana’s best strategy. If Oladipo alleviates his health concerns in the first half, the Pacers could potentially extract more value for him at the trade deadline than they could this offseason — especially if multiple contenders view him as a missing piece for the stretch run.
2. Will the Pacers break up the Domantas Sabonis/Myles Turner frontcourt?
Since acquiring Sabonis in 2017, the Pacers have stubbornly insisted that he and Turner are capable of sharing the frontcourt in Indiana. They’re not necessarily wrong, but after three years of experimentation, it seems obvious that – despite some modest success – the two big men don’t exactly fit together seamlessly.
Two developments during the 2019/20 season may help steer the Pacers toward the idea of trading Turner.
The first was Sabonis’ emergence as an All-Star caliber player. He enjoyed a breakout year, averaging 18.5 PPG, 12.4 RPG, and 5.0 APG on 54.0% shooting in 62 games (34.8 MPG) and was badly missed during the restart when he was sidelined by a foot injury. He was perhaps Indiana’s best player in ’19/20 and is about to begin a team-friendly four-year, $75MM deal. It makes sense for the Pacers to keep him.
The second development was the emergence of T.J. Warren as one of the NBA’s most impressive scorers this summer. Warren’s numbers during the seeding games (31.0 PPG) almost definitely aren’t sustainable, but the fact that he enjoyed his best stretch of the season while serving as the team’s de facto power forward was eye-opening. He might not have been in position to produce like that Walt Disney World if both Sabonis and Turner had been healthy and in the starting lineup.
Turner is one of the NBA’s best shot-blockers and has knocked down 35.9% of his three-pointers over the last four seasons. He’s just 24 years old and he still has three years and $54MM left on his contract. That’s a very fair price for a two-way center entering his prime. He’d be a tremendous trade chip if Indiana makes him available — I wouldn’t even be shocked if the Pacers get a stronger offer for him than for Oladipo.
Cashing in Turner for 50 cents on the dollar because of the positional overlap with Sabonis would be a mistake, but there’s no indication the Pacers will make such a deal. If they do move Turner, they’ll do so with an eye toward acquiring an impact player who better suits their roster. I’ll be very interested to see if they can find that sort of trade this fall.
3. Who will the Pacers hire as their head coach?
Nate McMillan‘s ouster in Indiana this summer came as a bit of a surprise, since the veteran head coach had led the Pacers to a top-four seed in the East despite a handful of injury issues this season. Two key factors played a role in the front office’s decision — McMillan’s playoff record and his offensive style.
The Pacers are reportedly seeking a head coach who can modernize the club’s offense and get the team over the hump in the postseason after McMillan lost 16 of 19 playoff contests during his four-year tenure.
President of basketball operations Kevin Pritchard and the front office know they’ll have to hit a home run after parting ways with a popular head coach who had outperformed expectations during the regular season. All indications are that the organization is doing a ton of homework in an effort to make the right hire, having reportedly spoken to more than 20 candidates so far during the search process.
Indiana’s pool of contenders ranges from experienced former head coaches such as Mike D’Antoni, Mike Brown, and Dave Joerger to up-and-coming assistants like Darvin Ham, Ime Udoka, and David Vanterpool to a potential first-timer like Chauncey Billups.
Although McMillan’s dismissal wasn’t entirely expected, the Pacers generally don’t have a quick trigger finger when it comes to their head coaches — the team’s four most recent coaches have each served for four or more years. This is also the first time since his 2017 promotion that Pritchard will be responsible for a head coaching hire, so he’ll be looking for someone who can lead the franchise for years to come. It will be fascinating to see which direction the club goes.
Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Draft Notes: Wolves, Wiseman, Warriors, Bane
Although there may not be a future superstar in the 2020 draft class, it’s viewed as a relatively deep group, with potential role players available in round two, writes Sam Vecenie of The Athletic. However, due to the financial impact of the coronavirus pandemic, Vecenie’s sources expect teams to try to get more second-rounders to sign two-way contracts or to play for a year or two overseas.
As Vecenie notes, this could create an interesting dilemma for teams and players in the second round. Last year, prospects like Terence Davis and Luguentz Dort likely would’ve been drafted if they’d been willing to sign two-way deals, but opted to bet on themselves and ended up in good situations (and with more favorable contracts) as undrafted free agents. Vecenie wonders if more prospects will look to follow a similar path and play hardball with teams in 2020.
Here’s more on the draft:
- Within his latest mock draft, Vecenie says that the Timberwolves are doing due diligence on all of the top prospects in the draft, including players like James Wiseman who wouldn’t necessarily be great fits.
- Speaking of Wiseman, Vecenie writes that there’s been some “real enthusiasm” among evaluators about the big man’s play in workouts and in runs with other draft prospects. A number of executives view Wiseman as one of the safest picks in the draft, since his size, length, and athleticism should translate to the NBA, Vecenie adds.
- Addressing the constant rumors coming out of Golden State about the Warriors‘ alleged draft preferences, Vecenie says he thinks the club is trying to mask its true intentions for that No. 2 overall pick in order to retain as much trade value if possible. If rival teams don’t know which player the Warriors actually want at No. 2, it could give Golden State more leverage to make a deal.
- Sources around the NBA have told Vecenie they’d be surprised if TCU’s Desmond Bane falls out of the first round, since so many teams drafting in the 20s could use a sharpshooting wing. Bane is currently the No. 41 prospect on ESPN’s big board.
- According to Jonathan Givony of ESPN (Twitter link), teams picking near the top of the draft were pushing hardest for in-person visits for prospects, and not everyone is thrilled about the concessions made by the NBA. Some executives have concerns about safety and last-minute scheduling, says Givony.