Sixers, Mavs Control Valuable 2020 Second-Round Picks
Second-round picks are often viewed by fans as expendable assets that can be thrown into trade offers without much risk of losing a future building block. And that may be true of many playoff teams’ second-rounders, which fall in the 45-60 range. Those selections are frequently used on draft-and-stash prospects or two-way players and don’t have a particularly high hit rate.
However, second-round picks that land in the 30s are only slightly less valuable than late first-round picks. Since 2015, Malcolm Brogdon, Devonte’ Graham, Montrezl Harrell, Cedi Osman, Ivica Zubac, Jalen Brunson, Mitchell Robinson, Richaun Holmes, Semi Ojeleye, and Patrick McCaw are among the players that have been selected in the 31-39 range.
With that in mind, it’s worth considering which teams have acquired an extra second-round pick that projects to fall in that range in 2020. For a contending team, those draft picks are valuable trade chips that could be dangled in negotiations this winter, especially if the contender in question doesn’t have its own first-round pick to offer.
No club is better positioned in this regard than the Sixers. As our tracker shows, Philadelphia projects to have two early second-round picks in 2020, based on the NBA’s current reverse standings. The Sixers will receive the more favorable of the Nets‘ and Knicks‘ second-round picks and will also receive the Hawks‘ second-rounder. Currently, Atlanta’s pick projects to land at No. 32, while New York’s will be No. 34 or 35.
The 76ers have traded their own 2020 first-round pick to Brooklyn, but if they want to upgrade their roster at this season’s deadline, the Hawks’ and/or Knicks’ second-rounders figure to be on the table and should appeal to rebuilding teams.
The Mavericks, meanwhile, owe their 2021 and 2023 first-round picks to New York, which prevents them from offering their 2020 first-rounder in a trade due to the Stepien Rule. However, they control the Warriors‘ second-round pick for ’20, which should be nearly as good as a first-rounder — it currently projects to be the No. 31 overall pick, since Golden State has the league’s worst record. Attaching that pick to Courtney Lee‘s expiring contract could be the start of a promising trade package for Dallas.
The Sixers and Mavericks are the only contending teams that own early 2020 second-round picks, but a few more of those early second-rounders have been moved. Here are the other traded 2020 picks that appear likely to land high in the second round:
- Hornets own Cavaliers‘ second-round pick (projected to be No. 34 or 35).
- Pelicans own Wizards‘ second-round pick (No. 36).
- Wizards own most favorable of Grizzlies‘ (No. 37) or Bulls‘ (No. 38) second-round pick.
- Note: The Bulls will receive the least favorable of these two picks.
Southeast Notes: Bertans, Wizards, Parker, Heat
Wizards general manager Tommy Sheppard recently declared that the team fully intends to keep sharpshooter Davis Bertans beyond this season, and it appears that interest is reciprocated by the Latvian Laser and his camp. Bertans tells Fred Katz of The Athletic that he’s happy with the Wizards and that his family has been enjoying D.C.
“(D.C.) is just more something closer to home, like a little international, European style,” Bertans said. “There’s some history that not a lot of cities in the States have. And then when you’re downtown, everything is walking distance. That’s about it. My family loves it here. So, that’s a big part. … Happy wife, happy life.”
Bertans has, of course, been enjoying a career year on the court, emerging as one of the NBA’s best three-point shooters in terms of both accuracy (46.2%) and volume (4.0 made threes per game). According to Quinton Mayo of NBC Sports Washington, longtime agent Arturs Kalnitis said his client has appreciated the opportunity to “showcase his abilities” and has had an “all-around great experience” in Washington. Still, Kalnitis noted that Bertans figures to draw plenty of interest in free agency next July.
“This will be an interesting summer for Davis as many teams are high on him,” Kalnitis said. “Every team needs players like him to win a championship.”
Here’s more from around the Southeast:
- Former first-round pick Anzejs Pasecniks, who signed a two-way contract with the Wizards this week, made his NBA debut on Wednesday, marking the first time two teammates from Latvia played together in the same game. Both Pasecniks and Bertans spoke about how much they valued that opportunity, as Chase Hughes of NBC Sports Washington writes. “You can’t even imagine what kind of a small possibility that is,” Bertans said. “It’s an amazing feeling. It just shows that basketball in Latvia is growing very rapidly.”
- In addition to being the first team to reach out to Jabari Parker in free agency, the Hawks also promised the most regular playing time, which was a major factor in the forward’s decision, as he tells Michael Pina of SB Nation. “Forget the contract and whatever. I’ve made a lot of money other places,” Parker said. “So it’s not just for the money. It’s just so I can enjoy the game. As long as I’m playing, that’s all I care about. It’s not about anything else.” Parker is averaging 27.4 minutes per game in Atlanta this season, his highest mark since 2016/17.
- As a result of the offseason trade that sent Josh Richardson to Philadelphia, he and Justise Winslow are no longer teammates after spending the first four years of their respective NBA careers with the Heat. Still, Winslow claims the trade actually brought him and Richardson even closer. Ira Winderman of The South Florida Sun Sentinel has the story and the quotes.
Why Some Contenders’ Trade Options Will Be Limited
When David Aldridge of The Athletic polled NBA executives in November on Andre Iguodala‘s eventual landing spot, the responses were nearly unanimous. Nearly every exec who spoke to Aldridge predicted that Iguodala would ultimately end up with the Lakers.
However, with the Grizzlies standing firm on their stance that they intend to trade Iguodala rather than buy him out, it’s hard to envision a scenario in which those execs will be proven right.
As we explain in our glossary entry on the NBA’s trade rules, in order to take back Iguodala’s $17,185,185 salary, the Lakers would have to send out $12,185,185 in outgoing salary. The Lakers have three players earning more than that amount on their own: LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Danny Green. It seems safe to assume none of those players will be included in a deal for Iguodala.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope‘s $8.09MM cap charge could be a good starting point in putting together a package for Iguodala, but Caldwell-Pope is one of three Lakers who has a de facto no-trade clause after re-signing with the team this past offseason — JaVale McGee and Rajon Rondo are the others. There’s probably no good reason for any of those players to approve a trade from the 24-4 Lakers to the 10-18 Grizzlies.
So what’s left? Even if the Lakers were to package all their next-biggest contracts, including Avery Bradley ($4.77MM), DeMarcus Cousins ($3.5MM), and Quinn Cook ($3MM), they’d have to include at least four players just to reach the threshold to take back Iguodala’s salary. That would mean either asking the Grizzlies to waive three players or getting other teams involved, neither of which presents a particularly realistic path to a deal.
The Lakers are perhaps the most striking example of how a lack of expendable contracts in the mid-level range ($8-12MM) may limit teams’ trade options this winter. But they’re hardly the only example.
Consider the Celtics. They only have three players earning between $5MM and $32.7MM in 2019/20. Those three players are Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Marcus Smart, and I wouldn’t expect the team to seriously consider moving any of them. For the C’s, acquiring a player in the $15-20MM range would mean packaging together at least three players earning $5MM or less, and three-for-one or four-for-one deals aren’t easy to pull off during the season.
The Sixers are in this group too. They have just two players with ’19/20 cap hits between $4.77MM and $27.5MM — Josh Richardson ($10.12MM) and Ben Simmons ($8.11MM). Trading Simmons probably isn’t a consideration anyway, but doing so would be virtually impossible due to the poison pill provision attached to his newly-signed extension. If Philadelphia wants to put together a trade package without including Richardson, it would likely mean starting with Mike Scott ($4.77MM) and Zhaire Smith ($3.06MM), which will limit the team’s ability to take on a bigger contract.
The Rockets had this quandary in mind when they signed Nene to an incentive-packed contract that bumped his cap hit to $10MM, despite a guarantee of just $2.56MM. The team essentially tried to create an expendable mid-level trade chip out of thin air, but the NBA thwarted the plan, ruling that Nene would only count for $2.56MM for matching purposes. As a result, Houston’s only contracts worth more than $3.54MM belong to the team’s five most important players, and one of them (Eric Gordon at $14.06MM) can’t be traded at all this season because he recently signed an extension.
The Clippers have one potentially expendable mid-level deal, but Maurice Harkless ($11.01MM) has been a pretty effective rotation player for the team this season, so L.A. would only move him for a clear upgrade. The Jazz and Raptors each have one contract in the mid-level range that could be used to build a trade package, but Dante Exum ($9.6MM) and Norman Powell ($10.12MM) both have multiple years left on their deals, complicating their value.
For certain trade targets, this dearth of expendable mid-level contracts among contenders won’t matter — there’s a viable path to match the salary of a player like Jae Crowder ($7.82MM) or even Robert Covington ($11.3MM) with some of those smaller deals.
Still, the salary-matching factor is one that shouldn’t be overlooked when it comes to pricier trade candidates like Iguodala or Danilo Gallinari ($22.62MM). Every team except the Hawks is currently over the cap, so every team with title aspirations is subject to those salary-matching rules, which are even more restrictive on taxpaying teams.
At this point, contenders with movable contracts in the $10-15MM range, such as the Mavericks (Courtney Lee, $12.76MM), Heat (multiple players), and Nuggets (multiple players) appear better positioned to make certain deals to improve their rosters at the deadline.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
NBA Trade Candidate Watch: Southwest Division
Over the course of the 2019/20 NBA season, up until February’s trade deadline, we’re keeping an eye on potential trade candidates from around the NBA, monitoring their value and exploring the likelihood that they’ll be moved. Each of these looks at possible trade candidates focuses on a specific division, as we zero in on three players from that division.
The Southwest could end up being one of the NBA’s most interesting divisions as the trade deadline approaches. The Mavericks and Rockets are headed for the postseason and may be motivated to make roster upgrades. On the other end of the spectrum, the Grizzlies were always willing to sell, and disappointing seasons may clear the way for the Spurs and Pelicans to join them as sellers.
After initially identifying three trade candidates from the Southwest last month, we’re examining three more today. Let’s dive in…
Jrue Holiday, G
New Orleans Pelicans
$26.2MM cap hit; $26.2MM cap hit in 2020/21; $27.1MM player option for 2021/22
Marc Stein of The New York Times injected some intrigue into this season’s trade market on Tuesday when he suggested that the Pelicans no longer view Jrue Holiday as untouchable. A two-time All-Defensive player and a former All-Star, Holiday is capable of playing on or off the ball and may be the most appealing trade chip on the market this winter.
Of course, just because the Pelicans are open to listening to inquires doesn’t mean they’ll simply take the best offer they get for Holiday at the deadline. It will likely require a substantial package to pry him out of New Orleans, particularly since he’s under contract for at least one more year beyond this season — the Pels could wait until the offseason or even the 2021 deadline to shop Holiday more aggressively.
If the Pelicans do seriously consider a deal this season, I’d expect the team to seek a package with a similar structure to the one they got for Davis, featuring a mix of young players and draft picks. The Nuggets, Heat, and Timberwolves are among the teams that should be motivated to pursue Holiday and might have the assets to get something done.
DeMar DeRozan, SG
San Antonio Spurs
$27.7MM cap hit; $27.7MM player option for 2020/21
Another former All-Star, DeRozan almost certainly won’t be as sought-after a trade target as Holiday, even if the Spurs convey a willingness to move him. He’s not a strong defender and his limitations from beyond the arc will turn some teams off.
For instance, Orlando is in need of scoring help and reportedly expressed interest in DeRozan, but given their roster construction, the Magic would likely prefer a player who can stretch the floor and help improve their spacing. DeRozan isn’t that player.
DeRozan’s contract also complicates matters. A team focused on 2021 flexibility may like the idea of acquiring the veteran guard and having him exercise his 2020/21 player option to keep him around for the next year-and-a-half. But there’s no guarantee DeRozan won’t opt out at season’s end, so a potential trade partner would have to be comfortable with either losing him in 2020 or ponying up for a new contract at that time.
Throw in the fact that the Spurs haven’t made a midseason trade in nearly six years and there are plenty of factors working against a DeRozan deal. But if San Antonio continues to slip out of playoff contention, it’s an idea the team will have to at least consider.
Jae Crowder, F
Memphis Grizzlies
$7.8MM cap hit; UFA in 2020
Andre Iguodala has been the most-discussed trade candidate in Memphis, but teams in need of help on the wing may end up pivoting to Crowder instead.
Unlike Iguodala, Crowder has actually played this season, averaging more than 31 minutes per game in 26 starts for the Grizzlies. It hasn’t been one of his best seasons – his shooting line has slipped to .376/.314/.746 – but Crowder is averaging career-best rates in rebounds and assists and remains capable of filling a three-and-D role.
Perhaps most importantly, his expiring contract has a cap charge nearly $10MM less than Iguodala’s $17MM+ figure. A non-taxpaying team would only have to send out about $4.4MM in salary to meet the salary-matching requirements for Crowder, which would be much more realistic for several contending teams that lack expendable mid-level contracts.
Revisit the rest of our 2019/20 Trade Candidate series right here.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
O’Connor’s Latest: Heat, CP3, Holiday, Gentry, Giannis
The Heat inquired about a trade for Chris Paul during the offseason but never came close to an agreement with the Thunder. And at this point, Miami’s interest in Paul is “extinct,” league sources tell Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer.
A trade involving the Heat and CP3 always seemed like a long shot, since Miami and Oklahoma City didn’t see eye-to-eye on the veteran point guard’s trade value and Pat Riley didn’t want to compromise his club’s cap flexibility for the 2021 offseason. However, O’Connor’s suggestion that the Heat’s interest is now non-existent is perhaps a significant reason why the Thunder and Paul’s camp reportedly have “no belief” that a trade will happen this season.
Here’s more from O’Connor:
- Rather than going after Paul, the Heat are considered more likely to pursue a trade for Pelicans guard Jrue Holiday, O’Connor hears from multiple league executives. Any major trade may be tricky for the hard-capped Heat to pull off, but Marc Stein of The New York Times reported on Tuesday that New Orleans is open to inquiries on Holiday.
- Before the Pelicans make any significant roster moves, they’re probably more likely to make a head coaching change, two front office sources tell O’Connor. Multiple reports earlier this month indicated that Alvin Gentry‘s job was safe for now, but the club’s ongoing losing streak has extended to 13 games since then, so Gentry’s seat may be getting hotter.
- It’s no secret around the NBA that the Heat are among the teams hoping to make a run at Giannis Antetokounmpo if he reaches free agency in 2021, O’Connor writes. While he cautions that it might be a “pipe dream,” O’Connor argues that Miami will be well-positioned to make a strong pitch to a star free agent that summer, since the team could theoretically retain Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Kendrick Nunn, Justise Winslow, and Duncan Robinson and still open up enough cap room for a max player like Giannis.
Poll: Will An L.A. Team Win The 2020 NBA Finals?
Following the series of offseason moves that saw Anthony Davis team up with LeBron James for the Lakers and Kawhi Leonard and Paul George join forces with the Clippers, NBA fans and observers spent the next several months anticipating a season in which both Los Angeles teams were legit contenders for the first time in years.
Through the season’s first two months, those two clubs have actually exceeded expectations. The Lakers were expected to experience at least a few growing pains as they incorporated Davis and the rest of their newly-added rotation players, but there has been no adjustment period — the team has a 24-4 record and is on pace to win 70 games.
For the Clippers, George’s lingering shoulder issue and Leonard’s load-management plan were potential red flags, and there was a widespread belief that the club may not hit its stride until later in the season. That’s still possible, but the early results have been pretty impressive too. The 21-8 Clippers are on pace for 59 wins.
With the Nuggets and Jazz playing inconsistent ball and the Spurs and Trail Blazers off to disastrous starts, the Lakers and Clippers have emerged as the Western Conference’s most dominant teams so far in 2019/20. In fact, a panel of ESPN analysts and reporters polled on this season’s outcomes unanimously predicted that the two L.A. teams will meet in the Western Finals.
That ESPN poll included another interesting question, asking its panelists whether they’d bet on one of the two L.A. clubs or one of the NBA’s other 28 teams to win the 2019/20 title. Only 30.4% of respondents took the field, with the other 69.6% forecasting a championship for Los Angeles.
We want to know what you think. If you had to make a prediction today, would you pick a Los Angeles team to win this season’s title, or are you betting on the field? And if you’re taking one of the L.A. clubs, do you view the Lakers or the Clippers as the frontrunner?
Vote below in our poll, then head to the comment section to share your thoughts!
Who will win the 2019/20 NBA title?
-
The Lakers or Clippers 58% (710)
-
One of the other 28 teams 42% (512)
Total votes: 1,222
Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.
Hawks Frustrated But Pierce Not On Hot Seat
The Hawks have been one of the NBA’s most disappointing teams this season, with Tuesday’s blowout loss to the Knicks dropping them to the very bottom of the Eastern Conference at 6-22. League sources tell Chris Haynes of Yahoo Sports that frustration has been building within Atlanta’s locker room during the team’s first-half slump.
As Haynes details, teammates have complained to one another about selfishness, accountability, and not putting in the necessary work to turn the Hawks’ season around. Sources tell Haynes that the roster is missing a “true vocal leader who command the respect of his peers” and that the club needs to put in work to “strengthen the connection with a few significant players.”
Despite a dismal couple months, head coach Lloyd Pierce is not on the hot seat in Atlanta, according to Haynes, who notes that the organization is remaining patient with Pierce in part because the team has been without big man John Collins since early November. Collins was suspended for 25 games for violating the NBA’s anti-drug program and will be eligible to return next Monday.
If the Hawks’ struggles and locker-room issues continue after Collins’ return, Pierce’s seat may begin to heat up, Haynes writes. Atlanta’s head coach has a guaranteed contract through the 2020/21 season, with a team option for ’21/22.
Mike Conley To Miss More Time With Hamstring Injury
After missing five games with a left hamstring injury, Jazz point guard Mike Conley returned to action on Tuesday, but logged just 19 minutes before re-aggravating the injury and exiting the game. According to Shams Charania and Tony Jones of The Athletic (Twitter links), Conley’s hamstring issue is expected to sideline him once again going forward.
League sources tell The Athletic that Conley will at least miss multiple games. The Jazz will evaluate the injury on a day-to-day basis, but there’s a chance the veteran guard could be on the shelf for multiple weeks, according to Charania and Jones.
Conley, 32, has gotten off to a slow start in his first year in Utah. While his 36.0% rate on three-pointers is about in line with his career numbers, he’s making just 36.9% of his two-point attempts, easily a career worst. His 13.6 PPG also represent his lowest average since 2011/12.
In Conley’s absence, Utah inserted Joe Ingles into its starting lineup, giving Ingles and Donovan Mitchell the opportunity to share ball-handling duties. Ingles remained in the starting five when Conley returned on Tuesday, with Royce O’Neale returning to the bench — both players will likely start with Conley out again. Emmanuel Mudiay should also see regular minutes, with Dante Exum and Nigel Williams-Goss in the mix as emergency options.
Knicks Hire David Blatt As Basketball Operations Consultant
The Knicks have hired former Cavaliers head coach David Blatt as a basketball operations consultant, the team announced today in a press release. According to a statement from president Steve Mills and GM Scott Perry, Blatt will be involved with the Knicks’ G League team and the organization’s international scouting.
Blatt, who coached the Cavaliers to an 83-40 record (.675) from 2014-16, most recently served as the head coach of Greek team Olympiacos. However, he parted ways with the franchise in October after having been diagnosed earlier this year with multiple sclerosis.
In his own statement relayed by the Knicks, Blatt indicated that Olympiacos job will end up being his last as a head coach.
“I look forward to the next step in my career as I officially retire from coaching and pursue other opportunities in basketball,” Blatt said. “I’ve long been intrigued by working in a front office and thank Steve and Scott for the opportunity to be a resource to the basketball operations staff.”
Blatt, 60, also served as the head coach of Turkey’s Darussafaka, Israel’s Maccabi Tel Aviv, and several other clubs over the course of his lengthy career. He has a close relationship with Mills, as the two men were teammates at Princeton from 1978-81. Mills is believed to be on the hot seat in New York, so it’s worth noting that he’s still being permitted to make front office hires.
And-Ones: Messina, All-Surprise Team, 2020 Draft
Olimpia Milano head coach and president of basketball operations Ettore Messina has coached some of Europe’s top teams, including CSKA Moscow and Real Madrid, and spent several years on the Spurs‘ bench as a top assistant to Gregg Popovich. However, an NBA head coaching job has eluded him. Speaking to Jeff Greer of The Athletic, the veteran coach – now 60 years old – suggested he hasn’t given up on the idea of coaching an NBA team.
“Maybe it will happen; maybe no,” Messina said. “Maybe I will be an assistant again. I do enjoy my time here (in Italy). It’s a good experience because you learn a lot about how the overall club and team function and how the club and team interact with each other. I try to do a poor man’s Pop.”
While Messina may view himself as a “poor man’s Pop,” the actual Pop is among those who believes that his longtime assistant deserves a shot to be the head coach of an NBA franchise.
“If somebody was smart enough, they would’ve hired him as a head coach here in America,” Popovich said, per Greer. “To date, that hasn’t happened, but he is one of the all-time greats. I don’t know what else has to be said.”
Here are more odds and ends from around the basketball world:
- John Hollinger of The Athletic makes his picks for his “All-Surprise Team” of the first third of the 2019/20 NBA season. In addition to much-discussed breakout or comeback players like Wizards forward Davis Bertans and Lakers center Dwight Howard, Hollinger singles out some contributors that have flown more under the radar, including Bucks guard George Hill and Nuggets wing Will Barton.
- The Utah fan who was banned from the Vivint Smart Home Arena last season for allegedly directing racist and derogatory remarks toward Russell Westbrook has sued the Jazz and Westbrook and is seeking $100MM in damages, according to Benjamin Wood and Andy Larsen of The Salt Lake Tribune. The fan, Shane Keisel, claimed that his heckling “was of the same kind and caliber as that of the other audience members in the section.”
- The 2020 NBA draft should feature a deep class of international prospects, according to ESPN’s Mike Schmitz (Insider link), who shares insights on a handful of promising youngsters currently playing in Europe.