Poll: Will Nikola Jokic Three-Peat As MVP?
I realize that it’s probably too early to ask this question. We’re only a little over 40% of the way through the 2022/23 regular season, and a variety of factors — injuries, team results, etc. — could swing the MVP race in multiple directions, especially with so many strong candidates.
In the first edition of ESPN’s MVP straw poll earlier this month, Celtics forward Jayson Tatum led the field, followed by Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo, Mavericks guard Luka Doncic, Warriors guard Stephen Curry and Nuggets center Nikola Jokic. A lot has changed in the two weeks since that poll was conducted, including Curry sustaining a shoulder injury.
Tatum continues to excel as the best player on the league’s best team, a true two-way force. Antetokounmpo has great numbers, though the Bucks are in a rut, having lost four straight games. Doncic has put up mind-boggling statistics the entire season, but especially recently, becoming the first player in NBA history to record a stat line of 60 points, 21 rebounds and 10 assists in the Mavs’ comeback victory over the Knicks on Tuesday, as ESPN’s Tim MacMahon writes.
Sixers center Joel Embiid has certainly climbed the rankings, mostly due to being healthy, leading the league in scoring for the second straight season while carrying Philadelphia up the Eastern Conference standings. The same can be said for Kevin Durant, who is having perhaps his finest season for the resurgent Nets, winners of 14 of their past 15 games.
In another year, stars like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Donovan Mitchell, and Zion Williamson — all of whom are having phenomenal seasons — would garner significant attention as well. Yet in ’22/23, they are mere afterthoughts.
As John Hollinger of The Athletic noted a couple days ago, Jokic, the reigning back-to-back MVP, might have the strongest case of all, despite a strong sentiment that voter fatigue will work against him (the same thing was said last season).
The Nuggets are 22-12, tied with the Pelicans for the best record in the West. Jokic once again leads the NBA in several advanced statistics, including player efficiency rating (32.3), win shares (6.6), box plus/minus (12.2), DunksAndThrees.com‘s estimated plus/minus (8.3), and FiveThirtyEight.com‘s RAPTOR wins above replacement (9.5, with Doncic second at 7.5), among others.
The 27-year-old’s traditional numbers are just as impressive. He’s averaging 25.7 points, 10.8 rebounds, 9.4 assists and 1.5 steals on .619/.324/.806 shooting through 31 games. Those 9.4 assists per game would be an NBA record for a center, his 68.8 true shooting percentage is the best mark among high-volume scorers, and he’s somehow shooting 62% from mid-range, which tops the league.
Maybe the most staggering statistic of all is the fact that the Nuggets are plus-10.9 with the Serbian on the court and minus-13.4 when he’s off, according to NBA.com. Jokic currently leads Basketball-Reference.com‘s MVP award tracker at 45.1%, trailed by Doncic (21.7%), Embiid (9.6%), Tatum (6.3%), Antetokounmpo (4.9%) and Durant (4.5%).
That leads us to our poll: Will Jokic three-peat as MVP? Vote and then head to the comments to weigh in with your thoughts.
Jazz Notes: Markkanen, Olynyk, Fizdale, Kessler
Lauri Markkanen is having an outstanding season for the Jazz and is a prime candidate to make his first All-Star appearance. In a Q&A session with Mark Medina of NBA.com, the Finnish forward says that a strong performance at EuroBasket and being in top physical condition have contributed to his improved play, noting that he expected the team to be successful in 2022/23.
“I had high expectations, especially after this summer,” Markkanen said. “I got my confidence going with the national team. There were a lot of NBA guys [in EuroBasket]. Physically, I’m in the best shape of my life. So, I had high expectations from the beginning. We have a lot of good players on this team. So, I had high expectations with the team even coming into the year, especially after training camp started.
“We have a good team. We just have to stay on the same page and build off our chemistry. We have a lot of new guys. But that was the same thing last season when I was in Cleveland. Everyone was doubting you at the beginning of the year. Then we started out well. Having that experience and then going into training camp, I knew we had a good team. We just have to keep going and keep getting better with knowing each other and staying on the same page.”
Markkanen also says he was limited to highlights and recaps growing up in Finland due to games being on in the middle of the night, and didn’t actually start watching NBA games until he came stateside to play college ball at Arizona. It’s an interesting interview from Medina and worth checking out in full.
Here’s more on the Jazz:
- Big man Kelly Olynyk, who recently missed four straight games with a left ankle sprain, was able to return to the lineup in Wednesday’s loss at Golden State, tweets Eric Walden of The Salt Lake Tribune. The 31-year-old Canadian is having a solid season for Utah, averaging 12.8 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 3.2 APG and 1.1 SPG on .520/.431/.835 shooting through 33 games (28.5 MPG).
- Marc J. Spears of Andscape details how David Fizdale went from coaching to an assistant general manager position with the Jazz. Fizdale was an assistant coach with the Lakers last season, but Darvin Ham decided to go in a different direction. Fizdale had a job offer to be an assistant coach under Nate McMillan with the Hawks, but he ultimately declined it when he was offered the Jazz’s front office position. According to Spears, Fizdale told friend and Jazz part-owner Dwyane Wade that “being a more present husband and dad” played a big factor in his desire for a new role, with Wade later informing president Danny Ainge of Fizdale’s interest.
- On the How ‘Bout This Jazz podcast, Walden and Andy Larsen of The Salt Lake Tribune explored the reported rumor of Utah discussing a three-team trade, rookie Walker Kessler being a pleasant surprise, potential lineup changes, and other topics.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Southeast Division
For the rest of the regular season and postseason, Hoops Rumors is taking a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents during the 2023 offseason. We consider whether their stock is rising or falling due to their performance and other factors. Today, we’re focusing on a handful of Southeast players.
Kyle Kuzma, F, Wizards
2022/23: $13,000,000- 2023/24: $13,000,000 player option
- Stock: Up
Kuzma has already said he plans to decline his player option and enter free agency, which makes a lot of sense from a financial perspective – he can only earn up to about $70MM over four years in an extension.
Through 35 games (35.4 minutes), the six-year veteran is averaging 21.6 points (a career high), 7.5 rebounds and 3.6 assists on .466/.341/.703 shooting (.560 true shooting percentage).
The 27-year-old’s TS% is actually below league average (.577, the highest in NBA history), but he offers three-level scoring and an interesting blend of versatility on both sides of the ball. He should see a significant raise on his $13MM deal starting next season.
Justin Holiday, G/F, Hawks
- 2022/23: $6,292,440
- 2023/24: UFA
- Stock: Down
It’s a rare and impressive accomplishment for an undrafted player to last 10 NBA seasons, but the eldest of the three Holiday brothers has now joined that group, having found a nice niche as a 3-and-D wing from 2016-2021.
Holiday has earned between $4.3MM and $6.3MM each of the past six seasons, but his role and production have been limited in ‘22/23. He’s averaging just 15.4 minutes per contest and 4.7 points through 26 games, while recording his lowest 3PT% (.345) since ’15/16.
Perhaps more concerning is the fact that Holiday’s defense isn’t what it used to be, and he’ll be 34 in April, so there’s little reason to believe that will turn around. At this point, he’s looking like a one-year, veteran’s minimum type in free agency – assuming he finds a team.
Will Barton, G/F, Wizards
- 2022/23: $14,375,000
- 2023/24: UFA
- Stock: Down
Similar to Holiday, playing 11 seasons as a former second-round pick (40th in 2012) is certainly an impressive achievement for Barton. He entered the league as a raw prospect, but flourished when he was traded from Portland to Denver, averaging 14.0 points, 5.3 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game on .438/.362/.789 shooting over seven-plus seasons.
Unfortunately, injuries have sapped Barton’s athleticism in recent years, and he was never a great defensive player. That – along with being traded to the Wizards in the offseason – has been detrimental to his career. He’s producing at his lowest level since his Trail Blazer days, averaging just 8.3 points, 3.0 boards and 2.7 assists per game on .371/.370/.800 shooting (.486 TS%) through 31 contests (22.3 minutes).
Barton will have earned more than $80MM in his career once this season is over, but he’s clearly on the tail end of things, and is probably looking at a veteran’s minimum contract in the offseason.
Nick Richards, C, Hornets
- 2022/23: Minimum salary
- 2023/24: RFA
- Stock: Up
The 42nd pick of the 2020 draft, Richards rarely saw the court in his first two seasons, averaging just 6.3 minutes across 68 games. Suffice it to say, external expectations were not high for the 7’0” center entering ‘22/23.
The fact that he has been one of the most productive backup centers in the league this season – he’s averaging 9.0 points and 6.4 rebounds in 33 games (18.8 minutes) – has been a pleasant surprise to say the least. The 9-26 Hornets currently hold the second-worst record in the league, but Richards has been a bright spot.
The 25-year-old will be a restricted free agent in the offseason and should garner a nice raise on his current minimum-salary deal.
(As an aside, I have no idea why Mason Plumlee continues to see the majority of minutes in the middle over Richards and first-rounder Mark Williams. Plumlee turns 33 in March, will be an unrestricted free agent, is a negative on defense, and Charlotte clearly isn’t going anywhere. Very odd situation for one of the league’s most perplexing teams.)
P.J. Washington, F/C, Hornets
- 2022/23: $5,808,435
- 2023/24: RFA
- Stock: Down
Washington has several desirable traits – he can play both frontcourt positions (though he has played almost exclusively power forward this season), he’s a decent defender, he holds a career 3PT% of .368, he can leverage the threat of his outside shot to pump-and-drive, and he can post up smaller players, particularly favoring a mini-hook shot down low.
The former lottery pick will turn 25 in the offseason, so he’s theoretically still on the upside of his career, and he’s posting a career-best 14.8 points through 34 games in ‘22/23. So why is his stock down to this point?
Well, down is relative. I thought Washington could get a deal in the four-year, $60-70MM range on a rookie scale extension before the season started, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he still does, but it won’t be because he’s having a strong contract year. Despite playing a career-high 31.8 minutes per contest, he’s averaging a career-low 4.9 rebounds, his defense has regressed a little to my eyes, and his efficiency has plummeted. He has posted .416/.337/.798 shooting splits for a .519 TS%, after registering a career-high .588 TS% in ‘21/22.
Playing without the team’s best passers for much of the season hasn’t helped, and there’s plenty of time for Washington to turn things around with a strong second half. Still, his stock has definitely dipped since October.
Wolves Notes: Gobert, Anderson, McLaughlin, Prince
The Timberwolves need much more from center Rudy Gobert, who hasn’t been the player they thought they were trading for, according Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic.
As Krawczynski writes, the Wolves lost a winnable game on Monday when Miami was down its two best players in forward Jimmy Butler and center Bam Adebayo. Gobert was outplayed by undrafted two-way Heat rookie Orlando Robinson, which is inexcusable for a player of his stature.
Gobert’s numbers are down across the board, and he doesn’t appear to be as mobile or changing shots at the rim like he did while winning three Defensive Player of the Year awards with the Jazz. Krawczynski points out that perhaps the most concerning statistic is that Gobert’s blocked shots have plummeted down to 1.2 per game — the lowest since his rookie year in 2023/14, when he averaged fewer than 10 minutes per contest.
There’s still time to turn things around, and injuries to key rotation players haven’t helped. But to this point, the blockbuster trade is looking like a disaster for the Wolves, per Krawczynski.
For what it’s worth, Krawczynski said (via Twitter) that Gobert played “great” in Wednesday’s one-point loss to the Pelicans, which dropped the Wolves’ record to 16-19.
Here’s more out of Minnesota:
- In a Q&A with Tania Ganguli of The New York Times (subscriber link), Gobert says he isn’t worried about being under a microscope as he adjusts to a new team. “It’s not hard for me. I want to win, I’m a competitor, so it’s hard to lose. But at the same time, I’m able to understand the bigger picture and to understand that you got to go through pain to grow. I’ve said every time people ask me, it’s going to be some adversity. And when adversity hits, obviously everybody will have something to say. People are always going to have opinions,” he said.
- Prior to Wednesday’s game, head coach Chris Finch told reporters, including Chris Hine of The Star Tribune (Twitter link), that forward Kyle Anderson is nearing a return. The Wolves hope to have him back for Friday’s game in Milwaukee. The veteran play-maker has been dealing with a non-COVID illness and back spasms.
- Finch also provided injury updates on point guard Jordan McLaughlin (left calf strain) and forward Taurean Prince (right shoulder subluxation), two key role players for the Wolves. As Hine relays (via Twitter), Finch said McLaughlin will be reevaluated in about a week, while Prince has been doing on-court work, but there’s still no timetable for his return. McLaughlin has now missed 10 straight games with his calf injury. Prince has been out since November 25, missing 17 consecutive games.
Three Players Ejected In Magic-Pistons Game; Suspensions Likely
Magic big man Moritz Wagner, Pistons guard Killian Hayes, and Pistons wing Hamidou Diallo were all ejected for an incident in Wednesday’s game, tweets Mike Curtis of The Detroit News.
As shown in the video and multiple replays courtesy of Bally Sports Orlando (Twitter video link), Wagner initiated the altercation by hip-checking Hayes into the Pistons’ bench, which obviously riled everyone nearby. Diallo then caught up and shoved Wagner in the back with a forearm, followed by Hayes punching/forearming Wagner in the back of the head, which appeared to cause Wagner to lose consciousness.
Officially, Wagner and Hayes were both given flagrant 2 fouls, while Diallo received two technical fouls.
Hayes is almost certain to face a pretty significant suspension for his part in the altercation, as ESPN’s Bobby Marks notes (via Twitter). Several Magic players left their bench area to join the fray, and while nothing really transpired beyond a few mild shoves (it looked like most were just trying to get Wagner out), leaving the bench typically draws an automatic suspension by the NBA, per Vincent Goodwill of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link).
Since so many of Orlando’s players left the bench, it seems probable that the suspensions will be staggered so the Magic will still have eight available players, the minimum required to play a game, Goodwill adds (via Twitter). The suspensions are likely to be handed down sometime on Thursday.
Both teams’ next games are on Friday; the Pistons play in Chicago, while the Magic are home against the Wizards.
Thunder’s Pokusevski Out At Least 6-8 Weeks With Leg Fracture
Thunder big man Aleksej Pokusevski has suffered a non-displaced tibial plateau fracture in his left leg and will be reevaluated in six-to-eight weeks, the team announced.
Pokusevski, who just turned 21 on Monday, sustained the injury in Tuesday’s victory over San Antonio. Through 31 games, including 25 starts (21.8 minutes), he’s averaging 8.8 points, 5.1 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 1.3 blocks on .440/.376/.636 shooting.
The young Serbian struggled with efficiency and defense in his first two seasons, but he had started to figure out the speed of the NBA game in 2022/23 prior to getting injured. He has played almost exclusively center this season after previously floating between multiple frontcourt positions.
As a former first-round pick (17th overall in 2020) now in his third year, Pokusevski will be eligible for a rookie scale extension in the offseason.
With Pokusevski and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (ankle) sidelined, Darius Bazley and Mike Muscala should see an uptick in minutes for the Thunder.
Southeast Notes: Hawks, Heat, Banchero, Magic, Beal
Hawks point guard Trae Young was ruled out of Wednesday’s game against Brooklyn due to a left calf contusion, per Lauren L. Williams of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution (Twitter link). Starting small forward De’Andre Hunter will also be sidelined for the second straight game with a left ankle sprain.
Young, who is averaging 27.3 PPG, 2.8 RPG and 9.9 APG on .414/.316/.896 shooting through 31 games, was injured in the fourth quarter of Tuesday’s loss to Indiana, which dropped the Hawks to 17-17 on the season.
Here’s more from the Southeast:
- Heat stars Jimmy Butler (right ankle sprain) and Bam Adebayo (illness) were both out for Monday’s victory over the Wolves, but were back in action for Wednesday’s game against the Lakers, writes Ira Winderman of The South Florida Sun Sentinel (subscriber link). However, point guard Kyle Lowry was ruled out for personal reasons, the first time he’s missed a game with that designation in 2022/23 after missing extended time last season due to personal reasons. Gabe Vincent was moved into the starting lineup in Lowry’s place, Winderman adds.
- Head coach Erik Spoelstra suggested that backup center Dewayne Dedmon could miss an extended period of time for the Heat as he continues to be hobbled by plantar fasciitis in his left foot, Winderman writes in another subscriber-only story for The Sun Sentinel. “There’s no point in resting him and then if we’re going to be right back to where he is where we’re managing it every single day,” Spoelstra said. “He would like to put it behind you. I don’t know necessarily if he’ll be able to fully put it behind him the way Gabe [Vincent] was with the week or two weeks rest. But our hope is that it will be a lot better than it was.” Still, being down Adebayo and Dedmon on Monday showed the that Heat might have decent depth in the middle, with rookies Nikola Jovic and Orlando Robinson capably filling in, according to Winderman, who notes that Omer Yurtseven shouldn’t be overlooked going forward either, despite being sidelined following ankle surgery.
- The Magic have won eight of their past 10 games, and No. 1 overall pick Paolo Banchero has played a big part in their recent surge, as Kelly Iko of The Athletic details. The 6’10” forward says he’s hoping for both team and individual success for the rest of ’22/23. “Hopefully we can make the playoffs or the play-in, get there and win Rookie of the Year. That’s my goal,” he said. The Magic currently trail the Raptors by two-and-a-half games for the final spot in the play-in tournament.
- Wizards guard Bradley Beal, who exited Tuesday’s win over Philadelphia with left hamstring soreness, likely won’t be out for long, sources tell Shams Charania of The Athletic (Twitter link). Beal was officially ruled out of Wednesday’s game against Phoenix (Twitter link via Ava Wallace of The Washington Post), but Charania says he is considered day-to-day and could be back for Friday’s contest in Orlando.
Atlantic Notes: Barrett, Brunson, Harden, Harris, Stoudamire
Knicks wing RJ Barrett is expected to miss around a week with a lacerated right index finger, a source tells Stefan Bondy of The New York Daily News. Barrett sustained in the injury just two minutes into Tuesday’s loss to Dallas when he appeared to get scratched by Luka Doncic when the two players were vying for possession of the ball, per Bondy.
The 22-year-old has been ruled out for Thursday’s game against San Antonio, the Knicks announced (via Twitter). Jalen Brunson, who missed his first return to Dallas on Tuesday, is once again listed as questionable with right hip soreness.
Here’s more from the Atlantic:
- Following up on weekend report indicating that James Harden is contemplating a return to Houston in free agency, ESPN’s Zach Lowe said on his Lowe Post podcast that there are “whispers around the league” that Harden wants to continue doing one-plus-one contracts going forward — in other words, a two-year deal with a player option (hat tip to RealGM). The star guard went that route last summer with the Sixers in free agency, opting for short-term flexibility over long-term security.
- The Knicks reportedly had internal discussions about trading for forward Tobias Harris, which prompted Kyle Neubeck of PhillyVoice.com to examine the rumor from the Sixers‘ side of things. While Neubeck doesn’t doubt the veracity of the rumor, he also doesn’t think the Sixers would have any interest in what the Knicks might realistically offer for Harris, who has been a valuable contributor for Philadelphia in 2022/23, even if his contract isn’t ideal.
- Former player and current Celtics assistant coach Damon Stoudamire has accumulated plenty of coaching credits since playing days ended, but Tuesday marked the first time he was the acting head coach in an NBA game, writes Gary Washburn of The Boston Globe (subscription required). Stoudamire, who hopes to become a head coach in the league, filled in when interim head coach Joe Mazzulla unexpectedly missed the win over Houston due to eye irritation, according to Washburn. “We pretty much knew what we wanted to do,” said Stoudamire, who only found out he’d be in charge about 15 minutes before tip-off. “Honestly, it’s a collaborative effort. Everybody plays their part in situations like this. And it’s been like this pretty much all season. For me, it was just a matter of going out there and truly not messing it up.”
Pistons Waive Braxton Key, Sign Jared Rhoden To Two-Way Deal
DECEMBER 27: The Pistons officially waived Key and signed Rhoden on Monday, per NBA.com’s transaction log.
DECEMBER 26: The Pistons are waiving two-way forward Braxton Key and signing guard/forward Jared Rhoden to fill their open two-way spot, reports Shams Charania of The Athletic (via Twitter).
Rhoden, 23, went undrafted over the summer after four years with Seton Hall. He played for Sacramento’s Summer League team and then signed an Exhibit 10 deal with the Trail Blazers, but Portland doesn’t have a G League affiliate and he was waived before the season started.
The College Park Skyhawks (Atlanta’s affiliate) secured Rhoden’s G League rights in the NBA G League draft in October. In 16 games (25.3 minutes) with the Skyhawks, he put up 13.9 points and 6.4 rebounds on .547/.514/.821 shooting.
Rhoden is the second Skyhawk who will be promoted to a two-way deal today, joining A.J. Lawson, who is reportedly signing with the Mavericks.
Key, 25, spent most of last season in the G League with Philadelphia’s affiliate, the Delaware Blue Coats, earning a spot on the NBAGL All-Defensive Team. He signed a 10-day hardship deal with the Sixers and appeared in a couple games, then caught on with the Pistons at the end of 2021/22, first on a 10-day contract, then a two-way deal, averaging 8.6 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1.0 steal and 1.2 blocks in nine games (21.2 minutes).
The 6’8″ forward has rarely seen the court for the Pistons this season, making just three appearances for nine total minutes. He has spent most of ’22/23 with their G League affiliate, the Motor City Cruise, averaging 17.0 points, 7.9 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.1 blocks on .441/.256/.615 shooting in 13 games (31.3 minutes).
Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo Out Monday For Heat
Heat stars Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo have been ruled out for Monday’s contest against the Timberwolves, according to Ira Winderman of The South Florida Sun Sentinel.
Butler, who recently expressed his frustration with his inability to stay on the court due to a variety of injuries, suffered a right ankle sprain in Friday’s loss to Indiana. The veteran forward was previously listed as questionable, but was ruled out after testing the ankle during Miami’s shootaround on Monday morning, tweets Anthony Chiang of The Miami Herald.
Adebayo is dealing with a non-COVID illness. Unlike Butler, he has been mostly healthy this season — this will be his fourth missed game, with the Heat going 1-2 in his three absences thus far, per Winderman.
Unfortunately, Adebayo’s primary backup at center, Dewayne Dedmon, was also ruled out Monday due to “ongoing plantar fasciitis in his left foot,” Winderman adds. The team will likely lean on a pair of rookies (first-rounder Nikola Jovic and two-way big man Orlando Robinson) to fill minutes in the middle.
The Heat have been dinged up seemingly all season long, and being without their two best players certainly won’t help matters tonight. They are currently 16-17, the No. 9 seed in the East.